Scadrial vs. Roshar post Lost metal.

Frustration · November 18, 2022

32 minutes ago, Nameless said:

Considering how far Shai was willing to go to stop the invasion, I'd say that all the Ghostbloods are willing. Protecting Scadrial is literally their first tenet.

I was saying they shouldn't count for the purposes of the discussion, otherwise Roshar gets Nightblood and Change.

32 minutes ago, Nameless said:

The Bondsmith would still be stuck on Roshar unless the Stormfather was unbound from it or his own bond were broken.

Why's that?

32 minutes ago, Nameless said:

Very limited, in terms of a months-to-years long war. And supply chains will be difficult to upkeep.

A Tai-na gemheart would likely be the size of a house, and you only need the supply line until you can move an Oathgate to Scadrial.

32 minutes ago, Nameless said:

I was more referring to Wax's descendants, as he's a full Mistborn now, if a weak one.

I don't think that alone would be enough.

32 minutes ago, Nameless said:

He's practically a Fullborn, in that he has steel and gold compounding. And with the Atium he's gotten, he'll be able to stay plenty active. Not like he'd need more than a few hours to destroy an army anyways.

I don't think he has a choice (FE 518). But even if he did between soulcasting aluminum boxes around him, and Bondsmiths and Unmade trying to break in and control him, I don't think Marsh will make much difference.

32 minutes ago, Nameless said:

Not when they're staffed with Metalborn armed with aluminum they can't.

Yes they can, everyone on an airship has to be storing weight, all they have to do is land on one(BoM 401).

32 minutes ago, Nameless said:

We don't know how those shields work, and they seem to require external gemstones which would be vulnerable to shelling. Besides, even if Roshar can get a footing, hunkering behind shields just gives Scadrial more time to aim the antimatter bombs.

Scadrial doesn't have anti-matter. And while yes it does let the forces behind the shield get targeted it's only there to protect the squishy infantry while the Radiants and Thunderclast beak the enemy formations.

Edited November 18, 2022 by Frustration

Nesh · November 18, 2022

Honestly, it's the high ideal Radiants that are the big problem for Scadrial. Getting past the live Shardpate and insane healing factor of Radiants. That's the kind of thing that requires something like a tank, or a duralumin/nicrosil Steelpush. Not to mention Shardblades against anyone who isn't a Bloodmaker. They may really needto get Mistborn back.

NameIess · November 18, 2022

Just now, Frustration said:

I was saying they shouldn't count for the purposes of the discussion, otherwise Roshar gets Nightblood and Change.

Nightblood and Change aren't a Cosmere-wide organization dedicated to the protection of Scadrial.

1 minute ago, Frustration said:

Why's that?

Same reason all the other Radiants are stuck? Stormfather's connected to Roshar, Bondsmith's connected to him. Can't disconnect the Stormfather from the Bondsmith, can't disconnect the Stormfather from Roshar.

3 minutes ago, Frustration said:

A Tai-na gemheart would likely be the size of a house, and you only need the supply line until you can move an Oathgate to Scadrial.

An oathgate that is going to protect itself from ettmetal rockets how?

4 minutes ago, Frustration said:

I don't think that alone would be enough.

Which is why it is merely one resource in the list.

5 minutes ago, Frustration said:

I don't think he has a choice (FE 518). But even if he did between soulcasting aluminum boxes around him, and Bondsmiths and Unmade trying to break in and control him, I don't think Marsh will make much difference.

Bondsmiths and Unmade are not going to be working together anytime soon, Bondsmiths are not going to get off Roshar easily, and Marsh is too fast for aluminum boxes. (Even if it can be easily soulcasted, which we haven't seen.

6 minutes ago, Frustration said:

Yes they can, everyone on an airship has to be storing weight, all they have to do is land on one(BoM 401).

That wouldn't knock a large one out of the air, it would destabilize it at most. And Scadrial will probably figure out planes soon.

9 minutes ago, Frustration said:

Scadrial doesn't have anti-matter. And while yes it does let the forces behind the shield get attacked it's only their to protect the squishy infantry while the Radiants and Thunderclast beak the enemy formations.

Harmonium/Trellium explosives are basically antimatter, if not even more powerful. Radiants and Thunderclasts do not work together. And the enemy doesn't need formations when they can lob Harmonium explosives at you from 60 miles away.

Frustration · November 18, 2022

12 minutes ago, Nameless said:

Nightblood and Change aren't a Cosmere-wide organization dedicated to the protection of Scadrial.

They're just in the possession of Rosharans. I see no difference.

12 minutes ago, Nameless said:

Same reason all the other Radiants are stuck? Stormfather's connected to Roshar, Bondsmith's connected to him. Can't disconnect the Stormfather from the Bondsmith, can't disconnect the Stormfather from Roshar.

The Bondsmith can just leave while the Stormfather stays there. As stated earlier the Bondsmith doesn't need to be near the Stormfather.

12 minutes ago, Nameless said:

An oathgate that is going to protect itself from ettmetal rockets how?

How are scadrians going to accurately target a single platform from far enough away that no Radiants notice them?

12 minutes ago, Nameless said:

Bondsmiths and Unmade are not going to be working together anytime soon,

Neither will northern and southern scadrians.

12 minutes ago, Nameless said:

Marsh is too fast for aluminum boxes. (Even if it can be easily soulcasted, which we haven't seen.

In order to move that fast he would use up so much steel that he wouldn't be able to sustain it. And they can target him while he's resting.

12 minutes ago, Nameless said:

That wouldn't knock a large one out of the air, it would destabilize it at most.

Then why does everyone on the ship have to use the medallions? And even if all it did was make it really hard to fly just add downwards lashings until it does fall from the sky.

12 minutes ago, Nameless said:

And Scadrial will probably figure out planes soon.

Wood and paper ones maybe.

12 minutes ago, Nameless said:

Harmonium/Trellium explosives are basically antimatter, if not even more powerful.

They are closer to nukes, as it's a matter to energy reaction just using mass, no anti-particles.

12 minutes ago, Nameless said:

Radiants and Thunderclasts do not work together.

Neither do northern and southern scadrians.

12 minutes ago, Nameless said:

And the enemy doesn't need formations when they can lob Harmonium explosives at you from 60 miles away.

I believe it was well established that the technology to use the bombs in missiles doesn't exist yet.

Edited November 18, 2022 by Frustration

NameIess · November 18, 2022

Just now, Frustration said:

Their just in the possession of Rosharans. I see no difference.

Rysn is not going to be okay with Change being used in a war to conquer Scadrial. And Szeth might not be either.

1 minute ago, Frustration said:

The Bondsmith can just leave while the Stormfather stays there. As stated earlier the Bondsmith doesn't need to be near the Stormfather.

No, he can't. If a normal Radiant can't leave then neither can he. The Stormfather's connected to Roshar, not the entire Cosmere.

3 minutes ago, Frustration said:

How are scadrians going to accurately target a single platform from far enough away that no Radiants notice them?

rockets, mortars, strike teams with leeching allomancy grenades and steel compounders?

4 minutes ago, Frustration said:

Neither will northern and southern scadrians.

True, but I think that Odium and the KR are going to take a bit longer to reconcile. And an invasion by aliens would do wonders for unification, just as the discovery of South Scadrial did in the Basin.

6 minutes ago, Frustration said:

In order to move that fast he would use up so much steel that he wouldn't be able to sustain it. And they can target him while he's resting.

He can just swallow like an hours worth of charged metalminds and use those.

7 minutes ago, Frustration said:

Then why does everyone on the ship have to use the medallions? And even if all it did was make it really hard to fly just add downwards lashings until it does fall from the sky.

Because they want a stable ship? Using a bunch of lashings seems like it'd take a lot of Stormlight, which will be in very short supply.

9 minutes ago, Frustration said:

Wood and paper ones maybe.

They literally already have rockets. planes aren't going to be that far behind.

9 minutes ago, Frustration said:

They are closer to nukes, as it's a matter to energy reaction just using mass, no anti-particles.

Preservation and Ruin are fairly opposite, but fair. It's still several orders of magnitude more powerful than any nuke. The one that the Set planned to destroy Elendel with had a blast radius of at least 50 miles according to Harmony.

13 minutes ago, Frustration said:

I believe it was well established that the technology to use the bombs in missiles doesn't exist yet.

It was also established that they could've had it in a few more weeks. And that they made the bomb too big.

Frustration · November 18, 2022

5 minutes ago, Nameless said:

Rysn is not going to be okay with Change being used in a war to conquer Scadrial. And Szeth might not be either.

So Scadrial gets their extra-planetary advantages but Roshar doesn't?

Because yes, Szeth would be totally fine with it, and I'm going under the assumption that both sides are willing to use anything at their disposal.

8 minutes ago, Nameless said:

No, he can't. If a normal Radiant can't leave then neither can he. The Stormfather's connected to Roshar, not the entire Cosmere.

Honor is connected to the entire Cosmere. And the same trick that works with any other order of Radiants will work on a Bondsmith. But even if it didn't Ishar's Honorblade fills the same role.

10 minutes ago, Nameless said:

rockets, mortars, strike teams with leeching allomancy grenades and steel compounders?

1. How many steel compounders exist?

2. Even with steel compounding they won't be able to move fast enough for long enough to get that kind of scouting done.

11 minutes ago, Nameless said:

Because they want a stable ship? Using a bunch of lashings seems like it'd take a lot of Stormlight, which will be in very short supply.

As stated before, there are several reasons why it won't. But I'll go over it again.

1. Take Tai-na gemhearts which are probably bigger than houses and use Cohesion to fix any imperfections.

2. Transfer to Scadrial and use Bondsmith (spren or Honorblade) to refuel as needed.

14 minutes ago, Nameless said:

They literally already have rockets. planes aren't going to be that far behind.

Technology that was given to them. Sazed mentioned consequences for doing that, one of them is that they didn't earn it, so applying and learning from it will take a long time.

15 minutes ago, Nameless said:

Preservation and Ruin are fairly opposite, but fair. It's still several orders of magnitude more powerful than any nuke. The one that the Set planned to destroy Elendel with had a blast radius of at least 50 miles according to Harmony.

It also had a massive payload.

16 minutes ago, Nameless said:

It was also established that they could've had it in a few more weeks. And that they made the bomb too big.

They were being given the technology, without Trell around and most of the scientists dead their progress will stall.

NameIess · November 18, 2022

3 minutes ago, Frustration said:

So Scadrial gets their extra-planetary advantages but Roshar doesn't?

Because yes, Szeth would be totally fine with it, and I'm going under the assumption that both sides are willing to use anything at their disposal.

The Ghostbloods are a Scadrian-based association created for the sole purpose of defending Scadrial, so I don't count them as extra-planetary. And Szeth with Nightblood isn't going to make a huge difference. He'll just be one more nigh-invincible warrior who's dead once they run out of Stormlight.

6 minutes ago, Frustration said:

Honor is connected to the entire Cosmere. And the same trick that works with any other order of Radiants will work on a Bondsmith. But even if it didn't Ishar's Honorblade fills the same role.

If Honor was connected to the entire Cosmere, why is it so hard for him to leave Roshar? That kind of connection doesn't allow the Bondsmith to leave Roshar.

Ishar's Honorblade is currently in the hands of Ishar, who is not a team player, and we don't even know if it survives to the end of SA 5.

12 minutes ago, Frustration said:

1. How many steel compounders exist?

2. Even with steel compounding they won't be able to move fast enough for long enough to get that kind of scouting done.

1. probably not too many, but A-steel users with identity-free steelminds works similarly.

2. Scouting can be done by Kandra or Ghostblood agents. This would be an attack. Run in with F-steel, blow up the gemstones with ettmetal. Oathgate is now gone.

15 minutes ago, Frustration said:

As stated before, there are several reasons why it won't. But I'll go over it again.

1. Take Tai-na gemhearts which are probably bigger than houses and use Cohesion to fix any imperfections.

2. Transfer to Scadrial and use Bondsmith (spren or Honorblade) to refuel as needed.

1. Not going to last forever.

2. Neither Honorblade nor spren is necessarily available, even if the Honorblade is available losing it would be catastrophic.

16 minutes ago, Frustration said:

Technology that was given to them. Sazed mentioned consequences for doing that, one of them is that they didn't earn it, so applying and learning from it will take a long time.

True. I still think they're not far off.

16 minutes ago, Frustration said:

It also had a massive payload.

Right, but that level of destruction is higher than the Tsar Bomba's. And 50 miles is just the lower estimate. It could be upwards of 100 miles. Given a tenth of the power, they'd still have something stronger than most nukes.

Frustration · November 18, 2022

9 minutes ago, Nameless said:

The Ghostbloods are a Scadrian-based association created for the sole purpose of defending Scadrial, so I don't count them as extra-planetary.

Aether bound and forgers don't count as extra-planetary? If you want the native born scadrians who don't use otherworld Investiture that's fine, but if you want more Roshar gets Change and Nightblood.

9 minutes ago, Nameless said:

And Szeth with Nightblood isn't going to make a huge difference. He'll just be one more nigh-invincible warrior who's dead once they run out of Stormlight.

The ability to instantly destroy entire buildings, artillery prices, warships, etc is a bit beyond what anything else can do.

9 minutes ago, Nameless said:

If Honor was connected to the entire Cosmere, why is it so hard for him to leave Roshar?

Stronger Connection to Roshar.

9 minutes ago, Nameless said:

That kind of connection doesn't allow the Bondsmith to leave Roshar.

Yes, but it doesn't bind them in any way. They can do the same thing that they do to other Radiants, and since the distance between the radiant and the Stormfather doesn't matter the Stormfather can simply stay on Roshar.

9 minutes ago, Nameless said:

Ishar's Honorblade is currently in the hands of Ishar, who is not a team player, and we don't even know if it survives to the end of SA 5.

I find it hard to believe it won't survive given that they can be repaired even if pulverized into dust.

Spoiler

Questioner

In Rhythm of War, Nightblood broke off a piece of an Honorblade. Could you technically pulverize an Honorblade to the point it wouldn't exist? If so, what would happen?

Brandon Sanderson

You could pulverize an Honorblade to the point that it wouldn't exist. You would basically need to repair it with Investiture, and if you didn't, it would happen, the same thing that happened to Shardplate. You would be making... basically it's changing form. Either you would end up with a bunch of dust made of a God Metal, which you could do stuff with, or you add Investiture and reconstitute it, or you get it to change back into its other states. Those are all possibilities.

https://wob.coppermind.net/events/479/#e15248

And as I've said, both sides, united.

10 minutes ago, Nameless said:

1. probably not too many, but A-steel users with identity-free steelminds works similarly.

Aside from the bands we haven't seen any, steel-ferrings are pretty rare, and probably even moreso among the Southerners. So there might be a handful but not enough to be too much of a burden.

13 minutes ago, Nameless said:

2. Scouting can be done by Kandra or Ghostblood agents.

Both of whom will immediately be spotted, and the plan would already be known to the Rosharans via their Lightweaver and sleepless spies.

14 minutes ago, Nameless said:

1. Not going to last forever.

It would only be consumed when used by Radiants, and even then it would probably last for moths or even years.

16 minutes ago, Nameless said:

2. Neither Honorblade nor spren is necessarily available, even if the Honorblade is available losing it would be catastrophic.

That's why they would be brought in via Oathgate, replenish the reserves and then leave.

18 minutes ago, Nameless said:

True. I still think they're not far off.

Even if they do Rosharans can bring in Fourth bridge type planes, with different sized gems and ten plus years of improvement. Additionally Windrunners and Skybreakers will be faster and more maneuverable than the early planes and they can afford to be more reckless.

19 minutes ago, Nameless said:

Right, but that level of destruction is higher than the Tsar Bomba's. And 50 miles is just the lower estimate. It could be upwards of 100 miles. Given a tenth of the power, they'd still have something stronger than most nukes.

Fair enough, but Roshar has something beyond anti-matter detonations

Spoiler

R'Shara

Does anti-Investiture react to a different Shard’s Investiture in any significant way?

Brandon Sanderson

The answer is kind of a no, kind of a yes. Mostly a no. Anti-Investiture is going to have an explosive reaction. But the thing is, if it’s anti-Investiture of a specific Shard, that explosion is much grander. But you can make that explosion happen in a just antimatter-and-matter same sort of thing. But you can make the explosion bigger.

https://wob.coppermind.net/events/508/#e15889

Isilel · November 18, 2022

2 hours ago, Frustration said:

Hide contents

Questioner

In Rhythm of War, Nightblood broke off a piece of an Honorblade. Could you technically pulverize an Honorblade to the point it wouldn't exist? If so, what would happen?

Brandon Sanderson

You could pulverize an Honorblade to the point that it wouldn't exist. You would basically need to repair it with Investiture, and if you didn't, it would happen, the same thing that happened to Shardplate. You would be making... basically it's changing form. Either you would end up with a bunch of dust made of a God Metal, which you could do stuff with, or you add Investiture and reconstitute it, or you get it to change back into its other states. Those are all possibilities.

https://wob.coppermind.net/events/479/#e15248

This is very interesting - does it mean that the broken piece of Ishar's Honorblade will crumble to dust when he repairs it? I was hoping that someone - Hoid or a Ghostblood, has snagged it and we'd be able to learn it's Metallic Arts traits.

2 hours ago, Frustration said:

Both of whom will immediately be spotted, and the plan would already be known to the Rosharans via their Lightweaver and sleepless spies.

Pretty sure that a combination of Seekers and A/F Tin would be able to detect those.

2 hours ago, Frustration said:

It would only be consumed when used by Radiants, and even then it would probably last for moths or even years.

Leeching grenades, Duralumin and Nicrosil grenades, etc., should be able to make short work of both the stormlight infusing the Radiants and in the first case maybe even the storages themselves.

2 hours ago, Frustration said:

That's why they would be brought in via Oathgate, replenish the reserves and then leave.

We don't know that they work between star systems or that hauling Oathgate spren out of Rosharan space isn't orders of magnitude more difficult than doing so to Radiant ones.

Anyway, my view is that currently no powers or magi-tech that Rosharans have is portable beyond their system, not even non-sapient spren in fabrials. Though I suspect that removing Honor's tone from stormlight, as Navani has done, might de-couple it from Roshar and allow it to be transported elsewhere, and, in fact, that's what purified Dor are - Dor without their tone.

Whereas Scadrians don't suffer from such a limitation. And they might be able to make artificial perpendicularities by just bringing enough ettmetal and assembling it into a pile. OTOH, they are far from being able to defeat Rosharans on their own turf, because given effectively unlimited investiture Radiants and Co. are absurdly powerful.

The Cosmere Unaware · November 18, 2022

Provided the problem of moving Radiants off-world is solved as some passages have hinted to -- I'm giving a rather strong edge to Roshar. They are experts on war and have far superior combat magic, the technological difference is also quickly closing thanks to fabrials. The one big thing Scadrial has going for them right now are the Harmonium - Bavadinium bombs.

Tglassy · November 18, 2022

Take a Rosharan army with a statistically appropriate number of Knights Radiant relative to their orders (more Windrunner cause there are more) and a Scadrisn army with a statistically appropriate number of Mistings, Ferringe and Twingborn, at the level of tech we’ve currently seen, give each side a n equal amount of investiture, and put them on the same empty plane together, no “but they can’t even get to Roshar cause this” issues, and the Scadrisn Army will wipe the floor with Roshar.

Roshar is still using bows, spears and metal armor. Wax, by himself, ESPECIALLY now that he has Duralumin, would take the entire army on his own. Their ENTIRE army is covered in metal. The coin shots and lurches would have a field day. Every arrow they fire just flies back to hit them as fast as a bullet.

Against the Knights, there are currently only two with their own Plate as of the books. And yeah, Kaladin would be a force to be reckoned with, until a Leacher managed to touch him and puff away his storm light. That would be a problem for all the knights.

Scadrians have machine guns, now. They have hand cannons and grenade launchers. Rosharans have glowy guys with big swords. You kill a Knight the same way you kill a Bloodmaker: keep firing until they don’t get back up.

And when the ENTIRE Rosharan army is dead within a few minutes due to heavy gunfire, Coinshots, Lurchers, one Twinborn with a-Steel, a-Duralumin and f-Iron, and their own arrows, all you’d have left are the Knights Radiant, facing an entire army who just reloaded from their first volley, haven’t had a casualty yet, and still have all their Allomancere and Feruchemists. When that many guns are going off, the knights WILL go down.

If you gave every Knight their Plate, and had Dalinar show up and keep a perpendicularity open through the fight, then MAYBE the Knights stand a chance. But with a limited amount of Stormlight and 90+% of them not having their plate? Nah. They wouldn’t be able to do enough damage before their Stormlight ran out.

if you had the Soulcasters make Aluminum armor and weapons for the entire army, the. They’d somewhat stand a better chance. But that only negates the Allomancers. Does nothing for the freaking grenades.

Modern firearms for the win.

P.S. I forgot. Scadrians are REAL CLOSE to learning how to create Aluminum through electrolysis. Once that happens, they’ll even be able to make weapons that block Shardblades. Done and done.

Edited November 18, 2022 by Tglassy

NameIess · November 18, 2022

11 hours ago, Frustration said:

Aether bound and forgers don't count as extra-planetary? If you want the native born scadrians who don't use otherworld Investiture that's fine, but if you want more Roshar gets Change and Nightblood.

Considering those two examples live on Scadrial and have already been shown to help stop an extra-planetary invasion? No, they don't. Roshar can have Nightblood, but Change? No way. The Sleepless will never willingly give it up, especially not to Surgebinders, who don't exactly have a good track record with safe Dawnshard use.

If Roshar had a Cosmere-spanning organization founded by a Rosharan native for pretty much the sole purpose of protecting Roshar from anything that threatens it, they could use that. But they don't. And Scadrial does.

11 hours ago, Frustration said:

The ability to instantly destroy entire buildings, artillery prices, warships, etc is a bit beyond what anything else can do.

Buildings, warships, no. Nightblood has been shown to simply destroy walls, he won't eat an entire building with one stab.

11 hours ago, Frustration said:

I find it hard to believe it won't survive given that they can be repaired even if pulverized into dust.

Fair, but we don't know who's going to have it at the end. Maybe Hoid steals it and goes offworld.

11 hours ago, Frustration said:

And as I've said, both sides, united.

So now we're talking era 3 at the earliest? Because that's not going to happen until at least then.

11 hours ago, Frustration said:

Aside from the bands we haven't seen any, steel-ferrings are pretty rare, and probably even moreso among the Southerners. So there might be a handful but not enough to be too much of a burden.

You don't need steel-ferrings out in the field, just coinshots.

11 hours ago, Frustration said:

Both of whom will immediately be spotted, and the plan would already be known to the Rosharans via their Lightweaver and sleepless spies.

Because the Lightweavers have done such a good job finding the Ghostbloods so far, right?

11 hours ago, Frustration said:

It would only be consumed when used by Radiants, and even then it would probably last for moths or even years.

Even assuming that they can get those gemhearts, and that they can make them perfect, they wouldn't contain months worth of Stormlight for hundreds of Radiants and squires. And if we're letting Roshar use resources that they don't have yet, then Scadrial gets Atium and Lerasium from splitting Harmonium with Trellium.

12 hours ago, Frustration said:

That's why they would be brought in via Oathgate, replenish the reserves and then leave.

As I already said, the Oathgate would be a sitting duck. And we have no idea if it's possible to fix it once the gemstones break, which they will once the harmonium bombs hit.

12 hours ago, Frustration said:

Even if they do Rosharans can bring in Fourth bridge type planes, with different sized gems and ten plus years of improvement. Additionally Windrunners and Skybreakers will be faster and more maneuverable than the early planes and they can afford to be more reckless.

Fourth Bridge type stuff isn't going to be transferable easily, and will be vulnerable to the many anti-air weapons that Scadrians have been researching very heavily because of all the airships.

12 hours ago, Frustration said:

Fair enough, but Roshar has something beyond anti-matter detonations

They haven't researched any of that yet, and don't have a very good delivery method either.

therunner · November 18, 2022

Still in process of reading (damn you real life!!) but I have a few points to make, purely reactionary at this stage.

2 hours ago, Tglassy said:

Roshar is still using bows, spears and metal armor. Wax, by himself, ESPECIALLY now that he has Duralumin, would take the entire army on his own. Their ENTIRE army is covered in metal. The coin shots and lurches would have a field day. Every arrow they fire just flies back to hit them as fast as a bullet.

Not really no. Wax would soon run out of metals (especially when using Duralumin), and any 3rd Oath Windrunner would take him out, much less 4th Oath.
Reverse lashing and attractor fabrials would help defend against anything coin shot could do, lurchers would be useful in this situation.

If they started soulcasting arrow heads to rock, or aluminun, Scadrial would start having issues.

2 hours ago, Tglassy said:

Against the Knights, there are currently only two with their own Plate as of the books. And yeah, Kaladin would be a force to be reckoned with, until a Leacher managed to touch him and puff away his storm light. That would be a problem for all the knights.

Leecher would leach only armor, not Kaladin.
And how will Leecher touch a Radiant, unless they have F-steel, atium or are extraordinarily lucky? Typical Radiant has a Shardblade, or powers that kill at touch.

2 hours ago, Tglassy said:

Scadrians have machine guns, now. They have hand cannons and grenade launchers. Rosharans have glowy guys with big swords. You kill a Knight the same way you kill a Bloodmaker: keep firing until they don’t get back up.

And when the ENTIRE Rosharan army is dead within a few minutes due to heavy gunfire, Coinshots, Lurchers, one Twinborn with a-Steel, a-Duralumin and f-Iron, and their own arrows, all you’d have left are the Knights Radiant, facing an entire army who just reloaded from their first volley, haven’t had a casualty yet, and still have all their Allomancere and Feruchemists. When that many guns are going off, the knights WILL go down.

And Elsecallers can soulcast weapons and ammunition away, safely from Cognitive.

Windrunners and Skybreakers are bombarding Scadrians without a care in the world, from beyond reach of Scadrian guns, or from sky. And reverse lashings pull ammunition aside.

Stonewards can create supernaturally strong fortifications.

Lightweavers create large scale illusions making targeting at range difficult, or outright impossible, reducing Scadrians to spray-and-pray tactics.

Truthwatchers and edgedancers, gather and heal wounded, moving them to fortifications.

A couple of Elsecallers with a Bondsmith could outright destroy or cripple most of equipment Scadrial could field, and there is little Scadrial could do about it.

2 hours ago, Tglassy said:

Modern firearms for the win.

Modern firearms are great equalizer, but couple of hundred people in supernatural powered armor with superpowers are on a different scale.

Edit:
And additionally Scadrial has far smaller population than Roshar (as far as I know), circa 5-10x smaller, and are far less militarized, further hindering them.

Edited November 18, 2022 by therunner

Frustration · November 18, 2022

2 hours ago, Nameless said:

Considering those two examples live on Scadrial and have already been shown to help stop an extra-planetary invasion? No, they don't. Roshar can have Nightblood, but Change? No way. The Sleepless will never willingly give it up, especially not to Surgebinders, who don't exactly have a good track record with safe Dawnshard use.

If Scadrial gets it's non-Scadrian individuals and magic so does Roshar. Fair is fair.

2 hours ago, Nameless said:

Fair, but we don't know who's going to have it at the end. Maybe Hoid steals it and goes offworld.

Do you have any evidence that it won't be in Rosharan possession?

2 hours ago, Nameless said:

So now we're talking era 3 at the earliest? Because that's not going to happen until at least then.

Just assume. If both sides as they are at the end of TLM we're to suddenly unite with only their native population and magic, learn of the other, and deside "those people need to die" who would win?

2 hours ago, Nameless said:

You don't need steel-ferrings out in the field, just coinshots.

You need steel feedings to make the medallions.

2 hours ago, Nameless said:

Because the Lightweavers have done such a good job finding the Ghostbloods so far, right?

Because the Ghostbloods were so effective at countering the Set right?

2 hours ago, Nameless said:

Even assuming that they can get those gemhearts,

Use Cohesion to have the stone along the reshi seafloor tell you where they are.

2 hours ago, Nameless said:

they wouldn't contain months worth of Stormlight for hundreds of Radiants and squires

Kaladin had a fight with a couple dozen broams, which are 400 milligrams each. How much stormlight would be held by a gemstone thousands of kilograms? And even assuming that one isn't enough they can just bring more.

2 hours ago, Nameless said:

And if we're letting Roshar use resources that they don't have yet, then Scadrial gets Atium and Lerasium from splitting Harmonium with Trellium.

Atium yes, Lerasium only happened once and hasn't been able to be reproduced.

2 hours ago, Nameless said:

As I already said, the Oathgate would be a sitting duck. And we have no idea if it's possible to fix it once the gemstones break, which they will once the harmonium bombs hit.

The gemstones are only for stormlight the spren housings would be the metal shardblades are inserted in. And I highly doubt Harmonium can break something shardblades can't.

2 hours ago, Nameless said:

Fourth Bridge type stuff isn't going to be transferable easily, and will be vulnerable to the many anti-air weapons that Scadrians have been researching very heavily because of all the airships.

None of their guns were able to get high enough to hit airships.

2 hours ago, Nameless said:

They haven't researched any of that yet, and don't have a very good delivery method either.

Get two gemstones one full of stormlight, one of anti-stormlight, set up a fabrial clock that will combine the lights and drop it from the CR.

1 hour ago, therunner said:

Leecher would leach only armor, not Kaladin.

I don't think living plate needs stormlight to function, but even if it did they couldn't drain the plate

Spoiler

Brandon Sanderson (paraphrased)

An invested object resists any attempt to put additional investment into it. Just like you can't pull metal that's inside a person's body. When the Shardplate cracks, the streams of Stormlight that you're seeing are actually the plate doing what it's supposed to: healing itself. So, theoretically, you could maybe pull a tiny fraction of that Stormlight out, but you can't just stick your hand up to the outside of the plate and retrieve it. However, if you have the plate open with the gem exposed and you were to touch the gem, then you could pull the Stormlight from it."

https://wob.coppermind.net/events/160/#e2896

Edited November 18, 2022 by Frustration

therunner · November 18, 2022

36 minutes ago, Frustration said:

I don't think living plate needs stormlight to function, but even if it did they couldn't drain the plate

Hide contents

Brandon Sanderson (paraphrased)

An invested object resists any attempt to put additional investment into it. Just like you can't pull metal that's inside a person's body. When the Shardplate cracks, the streams of Stormlight that you're seeing are actually the plate doing what it's supposed to: healing itself. So, theoretically, you could maybe pull a tiny fraction of that Stormlight out, but you can't just stick your hand up to the outside of the plate and retrieve it. However, if you have the plate open with the gem exposed and you were to touch the gem, then you could pull the Stormlight from it."

https://wob.coppermind.net/events/160/#e2896

Huh, interesting.
I would say this pertains more to just 'breathing in' the functioning Stormlight, or pulling it in other ways, but it could be read your way too.

Personally I'd expect at the very minimum for a Leeching to have adverse effect on the spren that are creating the plate, and Duralumin boosted as well, even for a living plate.

And now I am off to read the book, so I may participate more fully.

NameIess · November 18, 2022

17 minutes ago, Frustration said:

If Scadrial gets it's non-Scadrian individuals and magic so does Roshar. Fair is fair.

No, not fair, because Change is in the hands of an organization whose sole purpose is to keep it out of the hands of those who would misuse it for things like an interplanetary war. If an actual war between Roshar and Scadrial took place, Kelsier would actually use his own organization to help Scadrial. The Sleepless would not give Change to Roshar to use.

21 minutes ago, Frustration said:

Do you have any evidence that it won't be in Rosharan possession?

Do you have any evidence that it will be?

21 minutes ago, Frustration said:

Just assume. If both sides as they are at the end of TLM we're to suddenly unite with only their native population and magic, learn of the other, and deside "those people need to die" who would win?

I don't really want to have that argument. I'd rather have an argument based on a somewhat reasonable hypothetical that could actually happen.

22 minutes ago, Frustration said:

You need steel feedings to make the medallions.

Right, but you don't need tons of them. Just enough to make some burnable medallions with enough charge to give a strike team of steel Mistings the speed to get past the Radiant's defenses and break one of the Oathgate's gemstones, rendering it useless.

25 minutes ago, Frustration said:

Because the Ghostbloods were so effective at countering the Set right?

Are the Rosharans an organization backed directly by a Shard? Didn't think so. Besides that, the situation was quite different. The Set was a covert organization, Roshar is a planet. And it's one that already has a ton of Ghostblood operatives in place, to the point that they were able to assassinate several Highprinces.

29 minutes ago, Frustration said:

Use Cohesion to have the stone along the reshi seafloor tell you where they are.

I was more referring to discovering those greatshells and deciding to acquire those gemhearts.

30 minutes ago, Frustration said:

Kaladin had a fight with a couple dozen broams, which are 400 milligrams each. How much stormlight would be held by a gemstone thousands of kilograms? And even assuming that one isn't enough they can just bring more.

Kaladin is one Radiant, and was very close to the Fourth ideal. Say you bring a hundred third-ideal Radiants, and they each use up 24 broams per half-hour fighting. That's 9.6 grams worth of stormlight each, so 960 kilograms worth of Stormlight per half hour, 1920 grams per hour. Assuming those gemstones are 10000 kilograms each, you have about 5 hours of combat for those 100 Radiants per gemheart. (And don't forget that you have to transfport those things across Shadesmar and then transfer them across realms). Say you manage 10 of them, you now have 50 hours worth of Stormlight, for just 100 Radiants. And refilling it is going to be practically impossible.

41 minutes ago, Frustration said:

Atium yes, Lerasium only happened once and hasn't been able to be reproduced.

No, Lerasium happens, but Harmony lies about it to Kelsier. In the case of an invasion, You'd better believe that Wax is going to tell someone how he suddenly became a Mistborn, and then all bets are off.

43 minutes ago, Frustration said:

The gemstones are only for stormlight the spren housings would be the metal shardblades are inserted in. And I highly doubt Harmonium can break something shardblades can't.

Odium implies otherwise in OB:

Quote

tell her to return to the city and climb toward the Oathgate. If Tisark can't secure it, she is to destroy the device and recover its gemstones. We can rebuild it as long as the spren aren't compromised.

-OB Ch. 117 p. 1110

46 minutes ago, Frustration said:

None of their guns were able to get high enough to hit airships.

None of North Scadrial's guns can yet, and the Southerners doubtless have more advanced anti-air cannons.

47 minutes ago, Frustration said:

Get two gemstones one full of stormlight, one of anti-stormlight, set up a fabrial clock that will combine the lights and drop it from the CR.

So you need a Bondsmith? That's very unreliable compared to rockets.

agrabes · November 18, 2022

I think if you're going to have this debate and prove one side or the other would win in a general battle you should assume both sides are on equal footing. Imagine both sides topped up all their gear as they would knowing they were going into a battle and neither side has the ability to resupply. Each side only is allowed to use powers as shown and understood by the characters so far in published books. Neither side has extensive pre-knowledge of the other's capabilities and exact strengths and weaknesses, they only know they are facing a dangerous enemy with unknown magical abilities. We don't let them have knowledge of each other because then each poster thinks they can make their side more clever than the other. The "forces of evil" are not allowed to join, but rival powers are - for example Odium and Autonomy's forces are not allowed, but Southern Continent, Shin, etc are allowed. Dalinar's recharge ability is assumed to be cut off because it makes it unfair - no unlimited resupply. Ghostbloods are not part of it, because this is not a battle for the existence of Scadrial and they would not go march to war based on the command of the military leaders of Scadrial. We have an encounter battle and see who wins. In that context - here's what I think.

Rosharan Forces - Knights Radiant, Shardbearers (Full Set, Plate Only, Blade Only), Regular Soldiers with Medieval Weapons. Flying platforms and horses are the means of transport.

Scadrian Forces - Wax as Mistborn, Various Mistings and Ferrings, Kandra, Koloss, Regular soldiers armed with Pistols, Repeater Rifles, Gattling Guns, and Cannons. A small number Harmonium-Bavadinium bombs are available. Early era automobiles and airships are the means of transport.

What happens: The forces encounter each other - Scadrian forces quickly defeat everyone who is not a Radiant or wearing shardplate due to steel pushing abilities and superior weaponry. In a rage, windrunners and skybreakers with help from shardbearers clear the majority of the Scadrians. Shardblades slice through the Scadrian formations like butter. Here or there the blades hit an aluminum weapon and are deflected, but in the moment it makes no difference. The Scadrian leaders notice this and take note of it for later. Scadrian magic and weaponry can't penetrate the shardplate and though some allomantic abilities could technically defeat the plate, the Scadrians haven't yet had time to figure out how it can be done.

The initial encounter and ensuing chaos kill all the mundane troops on both sides. Most of the magic users without defensive abilities (speed, time manipulation, armor, extreme healing) are also dead or out of action. Wax and a core troop of the metalborn are left vs. the Radiants and Shardbearers. The battle rages for hours, with the Rosharans holding a slight edge due to their superior defensive capabilities. The Scadrians don't use their H-B bombs, holding it back for the maximum tactical surprise impact. The Radiants without plate, non-Radiant shardbearers, and metalborn gradually are defeated as their Stormlight and Metals run out. This leaves the Scadrians outnumbered and in trouble. Wax realizes there's only one thing left to do - he takes the H-B bombs to the heart of the Rosharan formation and detonates them - utterly destroying the Rosharans and sacrificing himself in the process. The power of the bomb is so great it overwhelms the shardplate and the Radiants, drained of stormlight at the end of a long battle, can't heal through it either.

Result: Pyrrhic victory for Scadrial due to their H-B bomb.

Frustration · November 18, 2022

2 hours ago, Nameless said:

No, not fair, because Change is in the hands of an organization whose sole purpose is to keep it out of the hands of those who would misuse it for things like an interplanetary war. If an actual war between Roshar and Scadrial took place, Kelsier would actually use his own organization to help Scadrial. The Sleepless would not give Change to Roshar to use.

They don't need to give it to them, Change is already in Rosharan hands.

51 minutes ago, agrabes said:

The "forces of evil" are not allowed to join, but rival powers are - for example Odium and Autonomy's forces are not allowed, but Southern Continent, Shin, etc are allowed. Dalinar's recharge ability is assumed to be cut off because it makes it unfair - no unlimited resupply.

Autonomy I could understand, but Odium is Rosharan, and Dalinar has that power.

2 hours ago, Nameless said:

Do you have any evidence that it will be?

It currently is in Rosharan hands, if you want it to be disconsidered you have to prove that it won't be

2 hours ago, Nameless said:

I don't really want to have that argument. I'd rather have an argument based on a somewhat reasonable hypothetical that could actually happen.

Alright then Odium kills Harmony, separates his power, takes up Ruin and destroys the planet.

Spoiler

Questioner

Does Odium actually present a real threat to Harmony, because he-- *interrupted*

Brandon Sanderson

So Harmony is vastly more powerful than Odium.

Questioner

Yeah.

Brandon Sanderson

Elend was vastly more powerful than Vin. Who would win in a fight?

Questioner

Vin.

Brandon Sanderson

Okay, there's your answer.

https://wob.coppermind.net/events/87/#e5854

2 hours ago, Nameless said:

Right, but you don't need tons of them. Just enough to make some burnable medallions with enough charge to give a strike team of steel Mistings the speed to get past the Radiant's defenses and break one of the Oathgate's gemstones, rendering it useless.

The size of the metalminds needed would be incredible, it would take years to fill them enough for that to be viable.

2 hours ago, Nameless said:

Are the Rosharans an organization backed directly by a Shard?

Two actually, possibly three depending on how SA 5 works out.

2 hours ago, Nameless said:

I was more referring to discovering those greatshells and deciding to acquire those gemhearts.

They already know about them, and the Reshi know about the gemhearts.

2 hours ago, Nameless said:

Kaladin is one Radiant, and was very close to the Fourth ideal. Say you bring a hundred third-ideal Radiants, and they each use up 24 broams per half-hour fighting. That's 9.6 grams worth of stormlight each, so 960 kilograms worth of Stormlight per half hour, 1920 grams per hour. Assuming those gemstones are 10000 kilograms each, you have about 5 hours of combat for those 100 Radiants per gemheart. (And don't forget that you have to transfport those things across Shadesmar and then transfer them across realms). Say you manage 10 of them, you now have 50 hours worth of Stormlight, for just 100 Radiants.

Brandon described the eye of a Tai-na as the size of a house(WoR 194).

The average house in Utah is roughly 32,270 cubic feet, which would make the gemhearts around 29,000 KG depending on what polestone they were.

Since cut gemstones hold more stormlight, and most spheres are cut horribly, this will easily be orders of magnitude more than your estimates.

The amount of time needed will easily be enough to create a border several miles out.

2 hours ago, Nameless said:

No, Lerasium happens, but Harmony lies about it to Kelsier. In the case of an invasion, You'd better believe that Wax is going to tell someone how he suddenly became a Mistborn, and then all bets are off.

Kelsier says multiple times that Sazed is a horrible lier, and he told Wax that his experiment was different. Do you have any evidence that Sazed is lying?

2 hours ago, Nameless said:

Odium implies otherwise in OB:

He just raided the gemstone reserve. If the Oathgate spren we're in gemstones why do they manifest in the CR, and how did the Fused not realize that unmade could be trapped? Additionally why would the Sibling be upset at trapping spren in gemstones? And what is the metal made from then?

2 hours ago, Nameless said:

None of North Scadrial's guns can yet, and the Southerners doubtless have more advanced anti-air cannons.

I never got the impression that the Malwish were technologically advanced.

2 hours ago, Nameless said:

So you need a Bondsmith? That's very unreliable compared to rockets.

Or an Elsecaller, or a Willshaper.

ScadrianTank · November 18, 2022

The book didn't add much to what we had before. All new tech North gained is still in the early stages, if effective against an opponent that (presumably) still uses spears and swords.

I'm waiting for era 3 to see what the South is all about, but my preliminary judgment is that if the technological age Kelsier wishes for comes to fruition, Scadrial as a planet/civilization will be more dangerous than Roshar. However, Rosharan magic users will always be stronger than Metalborn, especially with the new restrictions on Compounding, Dawnshards, Bondsmiths, and two(?) active Shards.

On Compounding specifically, it looks like a steady supply of purified Investiture might eliminate the need for it. All Compounding really does is fuel the Feruchemical attribute/effect with Preservation's Investiture, but now we know that you can supply it externally.

NameIess · November 19, 2022

1 hour ago, Frustration said:

They don't need to give it to them, Change is already in Rosharan hands.

Rysn is not going to use it for an interplanetary war either. The Sleepless would kill her first.

1 hour ago, Frustration said:

It currently is in Rosharan hands, if you want it to be disconsidered you have to prove that it won't be

It is currently in the hands of an insane immortal who will not be joining any war efforts anytime soon. Have any proof that will change in the near future?

1 hour ago, Frustration said:

Alright then Odium kills Harmony, separates his power, takes up Ruin and destroys the planet.

Odium is bound and will almost certainly remain so, it would go against Dalinar's character to release him, Odium doesn't want to take up other shards, or at least Rayse didn't, and Odium wouldn't bother destroying the planet when he could subjugate it instead.

1 hour ago, Frustration said:

The size of the metalminds needed would be incredible, it would take years to fill them enough for that to be viable.

No, all you'd need would be a small ring or two per person, enough for an hour of steel burning. Fill those, give them to the mistings, the mistings can burn them and get very high levels of speed.

1 hour ago, Frustration said:

Two actually, possibly three depending on how SA 5 works out.

Odium isn't giving the Fused knowledge on weapons technology, and I'm drawing a blank on what the second organization you're talking about it.

1 hour ago, Frustration said:

They already know about them, and the Reshi know about the gemhearts.

Reshi aren't going to sit there and watch while their gods are murdered. In order to harvest the gemhearts, you'd likely need to kill the Reshi, which would alienate large portions of the KR and start a civil war among the extremely essential magic users.

1 hour ago, Frustration said:

Brandon described the eye of a Tai-na as the size of a house(WoR 194).

The average house in Utah is roughly 32,270 cubic feet, which would make the gemhearts around 29,000 KG depending on what polestone they were.

Alright, so three times my estimate?

1 hour ago, Frustration said:

Since cut gemstones hold more stormlight, and most spheres are cut horribly, this will easily be orders of magnitude more than your estimates.

I'm willing to bet that the spheres Radiants are using are better cut than most. And if it was really so easy to perfectly cut a gemstone, don't you think there'd be more around?

1 hour ago, Frustration said:

The amount of time needed will easily be enough to create a border several miles out.

60 miles? Because that's what you'd need to be safe from rocket strikes. Even then, how are you going to hold a border against a barrage of Harmonium explosives?

1 hour ago, Frustration said:

Kelsier says multiple times that Sazed is a horrible lier, and he told Wax that his experiment was different. Do you have any evidence that Sazed is lying?

Yeah. He also said that Wax's explosion was the one that produced Atium, meaning the other ones didn't. He also made no mention of that produced Lerasium to Kelsier. Sazed has had centuries to get better at lying, and has the powers of a Shard of Adonalsium. Kelsier even asks Sazed if he's lying to him, meaning he can't tell for certain anymore. If Harmony couldn't lie convincingly yet, I'd call it bad writing.

1 hour ago, Frustration said:

He just raided the gemstone reserve. If the Oathgate spren we're in gemstones why do they manifest in the CR, and how did the Fused not realize that unmade could be trapped? Additionally why would the Sibling be upset at trapping spren in gemstones? And what is the metal made from then?

They don't have to be trapped in gemstones for the gemstones to be essential to the process, perhaps even irreplaceable.

1 hour ago, Frustration said:

I never got the impression that the Malwish were technologically advanced.

So their Harmonium explosives, fabrial magictech, knowledge of guns, etc. wasn't enough? They have knowledge of wars because they've actually fought them. You think they never realized that guns that could shoot down airships would be a good idea?

1 hour ago, Frustration said:

Or an Elsecaller, or a Willshaper.

Those two are very unreliable. It took Jasnah months to get out of Shadesmar, and its implied that they can only transfer to the Physical realm in certain areas.

therunner · November 19, 2022

10 hours ago, Nameless said:

No, all you'd need would be a small ring or two per person, enough for an hour of steel burning. Fill those, give them to the mistings, the mistings can burn them and get very high levels of speed.

Could they?
We have learned that at this stage even Hemalurgically granted powers cannot allow Compounding (either due to Identity issues, or due to some more spiritual reasons to do with natural state of souls).
Also, while theoretically possible per WoBs, neither medallions nor unkeyed metalminds were ever used for Compounding, and no character in TLM even talks about that usage this them being available for ~6 years at this point, suggesting that it is either flat out not actually possible, or requires a lot more work to enable.
At this stage only one who could get those levels of speed is a natural steel-steel Twinborn, and there is no guarantee one is even alive.

10 hours ago, Nameless said:

I'm willing to bet that the spheres Radiants are using are better cut than most. And if it was really so easy to perfectly cut a gemstone, don't you think there'd be more around?

Spheres are still primarily a currency on Roshar, there is most likely relatively little variation in quality of cut, as up until ~1year ago there was no reason to be that interested in it.
There is no suggestion that Radiants don't just grab whatever is on hand. During the first two books that was definitely what they were doing, as there would not have been time to experiment which particular sphere holds Stormlight better or no.

10 hours ago, Nameless said:

60 miles? Because that's what you'd need to be safe from rocket strikes. Even then, how are you going to hold a border against a barrage of Harmonium explosives?

Except the Set have not actually been able to finish their rockets, so Scadrial does not have rockets just yet, and might not for years without Bavadin giving out hints.
Even Bilming navy guns have a range far shorter than just 20 miles, despite their public posturing, so I would say ~10 miles deep defensive perimeter should be sufficient, and thanks to Windrunners Roshar has air superiority.

Additionally, as you don't assume united planets, Northern Scadrial has very little Harmonium and even less Trellium and no way to get more so this would be limited strategy, and Souther Scadrial conversely has no rockets or artillery from what we have seen and no Trellium at all.

10 hours ago, Nameless said:

So their Harmonium explosives, fabrial magictech, knowledge of guns, etc. wasn't enough? They have knowledge of wars because they've actually fought them. You think they never realized that guns that could shoot down airships would be a good idea?

One thing is to realize guns to shoot down airship would be a good idea, another to actually develop it. Torpedoes are trivial idea (blow a hole below waterline), but it took ~400 years from being first proposed to being actually created (and the first ones were just mines, from mines to actual ones it took further 200 years).

Southerns have good fabrial tech, but their airships as of few years ago are primarily made out of wood (see Brunstell) and use only gaslight, not electricity. That does not bode well for knowledge of metallurgy that would be needed to construct advanced weapons, as metal ship would actually be both lighter and with better structural integrity. Also if I remember correctly, there did not seem to be any mention of regular guns on Southerners, only their Harmonium tech (please correct me If I am wrong).

From this we can estimate that while Southern Scadrial has better fabrial knowledge, they lag behind Northern Scadrial on 'regular' science by a couple of decades.

10 hours ago, Nameless said:

Those two are very unreliable. It took Jasnah months to get out of Shadesmar, and its implied that they can only transfer to the Physical realm in certain areas.

They are only unreliable because current Radiants need to figure it all out on their own. Jasnah was first Elsecaller in 2 millenia, of course it took her awhile to figure how to do something, especially if she did not have a lot of Stormlight on her.
Now she can teach it to others, who will have much easier time, similarly to how Windrunners benefit from things Kaladin painfully learned.

Now for new things from TLM:

Invested Arts - Scadrial is much weaker on this front then we previously believed
1. No compounding through Hemalurgy, meaning no armies of incredibly difficult to kill Metalborn with twin-Gold, nor steel-Twins.
2. Similarly, neither medallions nor unkeyed metalminds don't seem to allow for Compounding, as no one mentions it despite them being available for 6 years and scientist actively researching in Southern technology.
3. Kelsier is not Fullborn as has been believed, and in fact is without powers.
4. Bands of Mourning are seemingly depleted, with no known way to recharge them.
5. Only person capable of compounding is Marsh, and due to his nature he seemingly needs to rest quite often. Without atium he woud be even more vulnerable.
6. Maybe they could produce Lerasium, but only if Sazed actually knows and shares what he learned. Also this is conditional on him being off-balance, as otherwise Harmonium cannot be split at all. Also splitting it requires Trellium, which is partially consumed in the process, and since Trell retreated off-world they currently have no way to get more further limiting applicability.
Science - there has been quite a progress
1. Electricity is a normal staple
2. Machine guns are becoming a staple among the more militarized groups (i.e. Set and Ghostbloods)
3. Grenade launchers are becoming a thing.
4. Bavadin provided knowledge on rocketry, however Set despite years of trying have not yet been able to get it to work. Without nudging from Bavading, they could be years or even a decade away, as Telsin implies they don't really understand some of the fundamentals necessary.
5. Ettmetal-Trellium bombs are literally nukes (though without fallout, so superior), based on description in small kiloton range at most. Main limitation right now will be Trellium, as Bavadin left the planet, so there should not be any source left.
Population
1. Elendel Basin has population circa ~10 million (it is mentioned that Elendel hosts roughly half of the population, and has population of at most 5 million, based on previous statements).
2. Elendel has military only 10 000 strong, which includes navy protecting shipping routes. Even if all outer cities are more heavily militarized, Elendel Basin has at most ~30 000 combat ready troops. Contrast with Roshar, where Alethkar alone has ~100 000 strong army.
3. No numbers on Malwish Consortium, sadly.

Edited November 19, 2022 by therunner
spelling

+Oltux72 · November 19, 2022

Scadrial has some additional nasty options. Gas warfare. Bacteriological weapons. And if they get really desperate: Koloss. They could start production of hemalurgic spikes.

NameIess · November 19, 2022

4 hours ago, therunner said:

Could they?
We have learned that at this stage even Hemalurgically granted powers cannot allow Compounding (either due to Identity issues, or due to some more spiritual reasons to do with natural state of souls).
Also, while theoretically possible per WoBs, neither medallions nor unkeyed metalminds were ever used for Compounding, and no character in TLM even talks about that usage this them being available for ~6 years at this point, suggesting that it is either flat out not actually possible, or requires a lot more work to enable.
At this stage only one who could get those levels of speed is a natural steel-steel Twinborn, and there is no guarantee one is even alive.

If they can use the medallion's storage feruchemically, they should be able to burn it as well. With hemalurgy you have the issue of gaining allomantic powers identity keyed to one person and feruchemy powers keyed to another, but unkeyed metalminds should still remain unkeyed.

4 hours ago, therunner said:

Except the Set have not actually been able to finish their rockets, so Scadrial does not have rockets just yet, and might not for years without Bavadin giving out hints.
Even Bilming navy guns have a range far shorter than just 20 miles, despite their public posturing, so I would say ~10 miles deep defensive perimeter should be sufficient, and thanks to Windrunners Roshar has air superiority.

The Set hadn't finished their rockets to the point that they could launch from Bilming to Elendel, but they did have a range of 30-40 miles. (Not 60, that was my fault)

4 hours ago, therunner said:

Additionally, as you don't assume united planets, Northern Scadrial has very little Harmonium and even less Trellium and no way to get more so this would be limited strategy, and Souther Scadrial conversely has no rockets or artillery from what we have seen and no Trellium at all.

An alien invasion will do wonders for unification. And until then, they don't really need much Harmonium or Trellium to anihilate the enemy forces. A couple barrels of the stuff had the potential to wipe out not just Elendel and Bilming (100 miles apart, according to the map) but also the surrounding cities. They have at least a trellium spike from Wax, and probably enough Harmonium to react with that, so getting at least one nuke-sized explosion shouldn't be too hard.

5 hours ago, therunner said:

Southerns have good fabrial tech, but their airships as of few years ago are primarily made out of wood (see Brunstell) and use only gaslight, not electricity. That does not bode well for knowledge of metallurgy that would be needed to construct advanced weapons, as metal ship would actually be both lighter and with better structural integrity. Also if I remember correctly, there did not seem to be any mention of regular guns on Southerners, only their Harmonium tech (please correct me If I am wrong).

They didn't seem too surprised by guns in BoM, and appeared to use the effectively.

5 hours ago, therunner said:

They are only unreliable because current Radiants need to figure it all out on their own. Jasnah was first Elsecaller in 2 millenia, of course it took her awhile to figure how to do something, especially if she did not have a lot of Stormlight on her.
Now she can teach it to others, who will have much easier time, similarly to how Windrunners benefit from things Kaladin painfully learned.

There might not be others. And the Willshapers are neutral. So unless we allow for complete unification, Roshar will have very limited access to inter-realm travel.

5 hours ago, therunner said:

Maybe they could produce Lerasium, but only if Sazed actually knows and shares what he learned. Also this is conditional on him being off-balance, as otherwise Harmonium cannot be split at all. Also splitting it requires Trellium, which is partially consumed in the process, and since Trell retreated off-world they currently have no way to get more further limiting applicability.

It only took a tiny shaving of Trellium to get enough Lerasium to make Wayne a boosted Mistborn. They could make dozens or hundreds of Mistborn with what they've got. An invasion will likely unbalance Harmony, and Wax knows that his explosion produced Lerasium, as he's a Mistborn now, so they won't have to rely on Harmony.

5 hours ago, therunner said:

Ettmetal-Trellium bombs are literally nukes (though without fallout, so superior), based on description in small kiloton range at most. Main limitation right now will be Trellium, as Bavadin left the planet, so there should not be any source left.

Large kiloton range at least. vastly more powerful than any nuke we've ever made.

5 hours ago, therunner said:

Elendel has military only 10 000 strong, which includes navy protecting shipping routes. Even if all outer cities are more heavily militarized, Elendel Basin has at most ~30 000 combat ready troops. Contrast with Roshar, where Alethkar alone has ~100 000 strong army.

Whichever side's invading will have to deal with realm transfer, limiting their numbers.

Frustration · November 19, 2022

15 hours ago, Nameless said:

Rysn is not going to use it for an interplanetary war either. The Sleepless would kill her first.

Oh, and an unstable shard who is slowly descending towards Discord won't change their minds? Regardless Rysn is Rosharan That is enough

15 hours ago, Nameless said:

It is currently in the hands of an insane immortal who will not be joining any war efforts anytime soon. Have any proof that will change in the near future?

One of the main points of SA5 is restoring his mind. Regardless he's rosharan, that is enough.

15 hours ago, Nameless said:

Odium is bound and will almost certainly remain so, it would go against Dalinar's character to release him,

If Taravangian's plan works out he gets out of the deal and can leave.

15 hours ago, Nameless said:

Odium doesn't want to take up other shards, or at least Rayse didn't

I doubt that Taravangian will feel similarly inhibited

15 hours ago, Nameless said:

Odium wouldn't bother destroying the planet when he could subjugate it instead.

So Rosharan victory either way.

15 hours ago, Nameless said:

No, all you'd need would be a small ring or two per person, enough for an hour of steel burning. Fill those, give them to the mistings, the mistings can burn them and get very high levels of speed.

That won't let you run 100s of miles, find the oathgate, and get back at such speeds that Windrunners couldn't stop you. Additionally a single full lashing and you die, and they'll lose their powers once they enter the suppression fabrial's range.

15 hours ago, Nameless said:

Odium isn't giving the Fused knowledge on weapons technology,

He told them about axi, hinted towards anti-investiture, gave them Raysium etc

15 hours ago, Nameless said:

I'm drawing a blank on what the second organization you're talking about it.

The KR lead by Cultivation, and maybe new Honor.

15 hours ago, Nameless said:

Reshi aren't going to sit there and watch while their gods are murdered. In order to harvest the gemhearts, you'd likely need to kill the Reshi, which would alienate large portions of the KR and start a civil war among the extremely essential magic users.

No need to kill the Tai-na, they'd likely be too big to bother with anyway. The Reshi seafloor is likely littered with gemhearts from ones that have already died. Soulcast a stone pillar to the bottom and have stonewards use cohesion to have the stone lead them to where the gemhearts are at so they can be collected.

16 hours ago, Nameless said:

Alright, so three times my estimate?

At least, and you could combine them to make them bigger.

16 hours ago, Nameless said:

I'm willing to bet that the spheres Radiants are using are better cut than most. And if it was really so easy to perfectly cut a gemstone, don't you think there'd be more around?

Jasnah says that almost all spheres are poorly cut and leak stormlight quickly. I cannot find the quote right now, but I'll look into it more

16 hours ago, Nameless said:

60 miles? Because that's what you'd need to be safe from rocket strikes. Even then, how are you going to hold a border against a barrage of Harmonium explosives?

Simple, Set up base somewhere far from Elendel, and then send a skybreaker along the nearby railroad using their blade like a snowplow breaking them apart. Moving at 200+ mph they could easily maintain a border that far out.

16 hours ago, Nameless said:

Yeah. He also said that Wax's explosion was the one that produced Atium, meaning the other ones didn't. He also made no mention of that produced Lerasium to Kelsier. Sazed has had centuries to get better at lying, and has the powers of a Shard of Adonalsium. Kelsier even asks Sazed if he's lying to him, meaning he can't tell for certain anymore. If Harmony couldn't lie convincingly yet, I'd call it bad writing.

If any harmonium/trellium explosion created Lerasium what would be the point in lying? Kelsier will test it anyway and he would find out, or Marsh will tell him because he's using it to make Atium. And how did the Set not notice? There is more Ruin in Harmony than Preservation, that excess means that Atium is produced unless you do some sort of trick that Wax did on accident there isn't any lerasium produced.

16 hours ago, Nameless said:

They don't have to be trapped in gemstones for the gemstones to be essential to the process, perhaps even irreplaceable.

Even in the Sibling gemstones can be removed and added, they can simply be replaced.

16 hours ago, Nameless said:

So their Harmonium explosives, fabrial magictech, knowledge of guns, etc. wasn't enough? They have knowledge of wars because they've actually fought them. You think they never realized that guns that could shoot down airships would be a good idea?

I don't think they have guns, or a least they didn't until after BoM.

16 hours ago, Nameless said:

Those two are very unreliable. It took Jasnah months to get out of Shadesmar, and its implied that they can only transfer to the Physical realm in certain areas.

No, they can easily get back and forth Jasnah just doesn't know how, which is to be expected if her first time going all the way to the CR was that time on the Winds Pleasure.

Spoiler

Questioner

Can you tell me anything about the Elsecallers we don't know yet?

Brandon Sanderson

They should be able to get back out of Shadesmar without having to find a perpendicularity, but Jasnah doesn't know how to do it yet. She should be able to do that, she just hasn't figured it out.

Prague Signing (Oct. 26, 2019)

5 hours ago, Oltux72 said:

Scadrial has some additional nasty options. Gas warfare. Bacteriological weapons.

That helps Roshar more than it does Scadrial. Radiants don't need to breathe, but Scadrians do.

1 hour ago, Nameless said:

They didn't seem too surprised by guns in BoM, and appeared to use the effectively.

They've been spying on the north for years, and they aren't that hard to use: point at enemy, pull trigger. They aren't much more that a high powered crossbow.

1 hour ago, Nameless said:

There might not be others.

There will be especially with the Recreance revilations in RoW.

1 hour ago, Nameless said:

It only took a tiny shaving of Trellium to get enough Lerasium to make Wayne a boosted Mistborn.

I don't recall him being boosted

1 hour ago, Nameless said:

Whichever side's invading will have to deal with realm transfer, limiting their numbers.

Not Roshar, with a Bondsmith and an Elsecaller they can make interplanetary portals.

Spoiler

Questioner

At the end of Rhythm of War, we see Shard-induced time dilation; you bring a lot of Investiture into a place, and it slows down time.

Brandon Sanderson

It can also speed it up.

Questioner

How much Investiture would it take to dilate an area so that one area moves forward about fifteen years into the future while everything else remains? Like, they have ten minutes, everyone else goes fifteen years?

Brandon Sanderson

There’s a couple variables here. Number one is the length of the area, and how fast that fifteen years passes. If we want us to jump forward fifteen years, in how much time? Fifteen years compared to one year? Fifteen years compared to one minute? Fifteen years compared to one second? These are all different things. And, of course, the more you’re compressing and the larger the area, the more Investiture you’re requiring.

Questioner

Could two unchained Bondsmiths in the course of a duel do it?

Brandon Sanderson

Fifteen years? Fifteen years is gonna be a stretch for what they can get a hold of, but it depends. Unchained Bondsmith, unchained to (for instance) a deity that there is no longer a Vessel controlling that power in the way that it needs to have the limits on it is going to be able to access more than one where there was some Vessel there saying “no.” So there’s one factor in it. A Bondsmith can access a lot of power, as evidenced by the migration. The migration from Ashyn to Roshar happened with a Bondsmith powering some Elsecalling. And that allowed for some pretty crazy things. Getting an entire population moved through a portal across that much space is a lot of work and a lot of energy.

So what you’re asking, I think that’s stretching. Depends, again, on how long. Fifteen to one, not so hard. Fifteen years in a second is really hard and probably beyond what they have capacity to do.

I see what you’re doing there. You saw me talk around it.

Dragonsteel 2022 (Nov. 14, 2022)

Questioner

Could you use AonDor to manipulate Connection? If so, would a real AonDor smarty be able to do something similar to a Bondsmith?

Brandon Sanderson

The short answer to your question is: yes. Let me give some explanation.

Even when you are seeings some things happening in Elantris itself, you are seeing them manipulate Connection. It is mostly reinforcing Connection, but it is, in a way, manipulation. Rewriting Connection, rewriting Identity are both things that they can do. So with enough power, with enough smartiness, what a Bondsmith can do can be done.

In fact, we have seen short-range Elsecalling done by… Obviously Elsecalling’s not Bondsmithing, but you know that a Bondsmith powered a big Elsecalling [to migrate from Ashyn], one of the big things you’ve seen a Bondsmith do is get people between plants. And you have seen people use AonDor to Elsecall. You’ve seen them Lightweave, you’ve seen them do a lot of these things. They also could do some of this same stuff.

Basically, rule of thumb is: almost anything in the cosmere that is possible can be replicated with AonDor with the right program. But you may need an injection of Investiture in certain ways.

Dragonsteel 2022 (Nov. 14, 2022)

Rosharan plan to invade Scadrial.

Move the Oathgate from Akkina to Urithiru
Gather the perfectly cut Tai-na gemhearts, Radiants, Thunderclast, Suppression and Death Fabrials etc. And Remove everyone's connection to Roshar allowing them to leave.
Use Bondsmith Elsecalling to open a portal to Tinweight
Bombard the city with lashed rocks until they capitulate
Move in and set up the Akkina Oathgate in the city
Send an Oath 5 Skybreaker, and maybe some support to destroy all of the railraods, starting with the one leading towards Elendel. Once a sufficient barrier has been made take out the rest of them
At the same time send multiple Elsecallers and Windrunners to Harmony's perpendicularity, and have all the Elsecallers work together(Which is possible according to OB 560) to make a massive Stone barrier over the perpendicularity.
With that done Roshar holds the CR, and Eneldel's ability to fight on either from had been crippled, allowing Roshar to take over the roughs, and several surrounding owns easily.
Build a massive Anti-stormlight bomb and drop it on Elendel destroying the city.
Accept Scadrian surrender.

NameIess · November 19, 2022

45 minutes ago, Frustration said:

Oh, and an unstable shard who is slowly descending towards Discord won't change their minds? Regardless Rysn is Rosharan That is enough

If Odium's war on Roshar didn't change their minds, Harmony won't either. And Rysn being Rosharan is not enough, at least not when Roshar is invading another planet. Again, if she's not letting them use the Dawnshard against the Voidbringers, nothing is going to change when they decide to invade another planet.

47 minutes ago, Frustration said:

One of the main points of SA5 is restoring his mind. Regardless he's rosharan, that is enough.

No, it is not.

47 minutes ago, Frustration said:

If Taravangian's plan works out he gets out of the deal and can leave.

His plan is to 'beat Dalinar' and we don't know what that entails. In all likelihood, he will remain trapped.

48 minutes ago, Frustration said:

So Rosharan victory either way.

No, that's the whole point of this argument.

49 minutes ago, Frustration said:

I doubt that Taravangian will feel similarly inhibited

And why not? Taking up another shard could cause him to turn into something like Harmony, or change him so that he can't carry out his goals.

50 minutes ago, Frustration said:

That won't let you run 100s of miles, find the oathgate, and get back at such speeds that Windrunners couldn't stop you. Additionally a single full lashing and you die, and they'll lose their powers once they enter the suppression fabrial's range.

Hundreds of miles? First off, they're coinshots, second off, no one's making a perimeter that covers hundreds of miles. You'd need to bring in regular troops for that, and you won't be doing so without having the Oathgate up for quite some time. Additionally, those suppressor fabrial's range is garbage, and they seem to require you fine tune them for the power you work against. Besides that, only Odium's forces currently know how to make them, and they require sentient spren.

Also, they wouldn't have to run back, because they'd just blow the Oathgate to pieces with a Harmonium-ettmetal bomb.

53 minutes ago, Frustration said:

He told them about axi, hinted towards anti-investiture, gave them Raysium etc

He didn't hint towards anti-investiture, Raboniel figured it out on her own. And telling the Fused about axi is a far cry from giving them details on how to build rockets and teaching them to make anti-matter bombs.

55 minutes ago, Frustration said:

No need to kill the Tai-na, they'd likely be too big to bother with anyway. The Reshi seafloor is likely littered with gemhearts from ones that have already died. Soulcast a stone pillar to the bottom and have stonewards use cohesion to have the stone lead them to where the gemhearts are at so they can be collected.

Are there? Doesn't strike me that those things die very often. The gemshearts might be buried very deep within the rock at the ocean floor. For all we know, the Tai-na might just go out into the deep ocean to die. You can't rely on access to those things.

57 minutes ago, Frustration said:

Jasnah says that almost all spheres are poorly cut and leak stormlight quickly. I cannot find the quote right now, but I'll look into it more

Alright. Still, do you really think it'll be easy to perfectly cut such large gemstones? There's a reason most gems are cut so poorly.

58 minutes ago, Frustration said:

Simple, Set up base somewhere far from Elendel, and then send a skybreaker along the nearby railroad using their blade like a snowplow breaking them apart. Moving at 200+ mph they could easily maintain a border that far out.

And when the Ghostbloods among your ranks blow up your Stormlight reserves and the Oathgate, leaving you stranded? What then?

59 minutes ago, Frustration said:

If any harmonium/trellium explosion created Lerasium what would be the point in lying? Kelsier will test it anyway and he would find out, or Marsh will tell him because he's using it to make Atium. And how did the Set not notice? There is more Ruin in Harmony than Preservation, that excess means that Atium is produced unless you do some sort of trick that Wax did on accident there isn't any lerasium produced.

Intent, of course. If Kelsier believes it won't create Lerasium, it won't. The Set didn't think they were splitting Harmonium, so they didn't. Wax did, so he did. And the difference between Ruin and Preservation's power is extremely slight, so it wouldn't have as large of an effect as you imply.

1 hour ago, Frustration said:

Even in the Sibling gemstones can be removed and added, they can simply be replaced.

We don't know that. There could easily be something extremely special about the gemstones. Maybe they need to have exactly the same dimensions. That'd be hard to replace.

1 hour ago, Frustration said:

I don't think they have guns, or a least they didn't until after BoM.

They used guns effectively enough in BoM, so they must have had knowledge of them.

1 hour ago, Frustration said:

No, they can easily get back and forth Jasnah just doesn't know how, which is to be expected if her first time going all the way to the CR was that time on the Winds Pleasure.

Reveal hidden contents

Alright. They still only have 1 Elsecaller and no Willshapers.

1 hour ago, Frustration said:

They've been spying on the north for years, and they aren't that hard to use: point at enemy, pull trigger. They aren't much more that a high powered crossbow.

Knowing about an enemy's weapon is much different from being trained to use it. Besides, their reaction to getting guns made literally no mention of how they'd never used one before. They just picked them up and started shooting. Not exactly the response you'd get from a group who'd barely ever seen a gun before.

1 hour ago, Frustration said:

There will be especially with the Recreance revilations in RoW.

The revelation that all of the Radiant spren thought it better to commit suicide than to remain with their Radiants? Yeah, not very convincing.

1 hour ago, Frustration said:

I don't recall him being boosted

Harmony said that Wayne could potentially keep the boat away from the city by pushing it. That's not something an unboosted Mistborn can do.

1 hour ago, Frustration said:

Not Roshar, with a Bondsmith and an Elsecaller they can make interplanetary portals.

Reveal hidden contents

They made a portal from one planet to another in the same system. No guarantee that'll work across however many million light years separates Scadrial and Roshar.

1 hour ago, Frustration said:

Move the Oathgate from Akkina to Urithiru

Rosharans have not shown the technological ability to do this.

1 hour ago, Frustration said:

Gather the perfectly cut Tai-na gemhearts, Radiants, Thunderclast, Suppression and Death Fabrials etc. And Remove everyone's connection to Roshar allowing them to leave.

Thunderclasts are not going to help Radiants. Suppression Fabrials are only used by Odium's forces, and the KR haven't replicated them yet.

1 hour ago, Frustration said:

Use Bondsmith Elsecalling to open a portal to Tinweight

We don't know that'll work.

1 hour ago, Frustration said:

Send an Oath 5 Skybreaker, and maybe some support to destroy all of the railraods, starting with the one leading towards Elendel. Once a sufficient barrier has been made take out the rest of them

Skybreakers work for Odium. Which side is attacking again? Because both isn't happening till Era 3 or 4, and I don't want to argue a completely unrealistic scenario.

1 hour ago, Frustration said:

At the same time send multiple Elsecallers and Windrunners to Harmony's perpendicularity, and have all the Elsecallers work together(Which is possible according to OB 560) to make a massive Stone barrier over the perpendicularity.

One Elsecaller supported by Lightweavers. Because of Ghostblood spies, the strike force walks into a trap and gets murdered by Marsh.

1 hour ago, Frustration said:

With that done Roshar holds the CR, and Eneldel's ability to fight on either from had been crippled, allowing Roshar to take over the roughs, and several surrounding owns easily.

Alright, they take the Roughs. So what? Any large-scale attack is impossible, and in the meantime you've got Ghostbloods, Mistborn, and Kandra all working together to destroy your supply lines. Even if you managed to bring perfect Tai-na gemhearts, what's to stop them from being destroyed by saboteurs? Kelsier's specialty is sneaking into places and stealing stuff, and he's made an entire organization of similarly talented people.

1 hour ago, Frustration said:

Build a massive Anti-stormlight bomb and drop it on Elendel destroying the city.

Drop it how? Windrunners without Stormlight that can't lash the bombs without blowing them up? Those bombs would have to be absolutely massive to destroy a city. regular-sized spheres don't even kill Fused at point-blank range. You'll need Tai-na-sized gemstones do do something like that.

1 hour ago, Frustration said:

Accept Scadrian surrender.

Why would they surrender? Even if this plan somehow went perfectly, South Scadrial is still fully operational. Also, Windrunners would never stand for blowing up a city of ten million innocents like that. Doing so would cause quite the schism among the Radiants. Even if I accept the practically impossible scenario of Odium's forces and the Coalition working together, ignoring Radiant oaths is on the same level as me saying "Harmony gets over his stalemate and smites all the attackers."

Scadrial vs. Roshar post Lost metal.

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