The Wandering Wizard Posted November 21, 2022 Report Share Posted November 21, 2022 Reverse Bayesian model then Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kasimir Posted November 21, 2022 Report Share Posted November 21, 2022 Just now, _Stick_ said: Turtle was evil in QF63 yes? Remind me what happened xD I know of your xino gambit and how that pointed to e!wiz but yall already had turtle pegged before that no? K. The short is that the main reason @xinoehp512 and I cleared Turtle was that Turtle claiming and using (or seeming to have used) a roleblock didn't really make sense for E!Turtle. Elims just don't claim the roleblock, use it to put Xino down (or me), and then go on without fanfare. Keep in mind that Xino was a Village Lurcher who had blocked two Elim kills already so a decent priority target. Then there's Turtle refusing to vote in a cycle where they could've just voted to bus Bookwyrm, and then it functionally wouldn't have made a difference and they wouldn't have risked death. Like - again, Turtle absolutely probably learned from the experience. Goodness knows I would've. But I feel that half the issue that game was just overthinking about the level the Elim team was gunning for. Turtle just picked the direct options quite a bit. So I just want to caution against overprojecting how E!Turtle might play because I think that's what threw me that game. I don't expect it to matter D1 - I think D1 is going to come down to...well, you, me, and Araris have made our views on D1s clear. But given the state of PMing in this game and the fact I see no real reason to delay, I figured I'd caution you about how you model E!Turtle. I've put a note on Turtle's Evil profile for my own part. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shining Silhouette Posted November 21, 2022 Report Share Posted November 21, 2022 (edited) Ok since there aren't PMs this game I'll send some in-thread. To Kas: Spoiler Spoiler How often are changes in meta accompanied by changes in alignment? Is one more causative than the other To Mat: Spoiler Spoiler I'm suspicious of you :eyes: Are you evil To Turtle: Spoiler Spoiler Thoughts on Stick? To Stick: Spoiler Spoiler Thoughts on Turtle? To Wiz: Spoiler Spoiler Honestly might just use these even after PMs open ... Actually maybe not Edited November 21, 2022 by Shining Silhouette fixing spoiler boxes 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Wandering Wizard Posted November 21, 2022 Report Share Posted November 21, 2022 You are as crazy as ever I see. Tweedle-son-son-Dumb ate his stone and felt much better. The grit ground wonderfully against his teeth and Tweedle-son-son-Dumb grins in eclestiastic joy. Tweedle Dumb notices a grin hanging in the air, "why hello there. How are you today Mr. Smily?" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mat Posted November 21, 2022 Report Share Posted November 21, 2022 People keep asking me that like they’re expecting a useful answer Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kasimir Posted November 21, 2022 Report Share Posted November 21, 2022 7 minutes ago, Shining Silhouette said: How often are changes in meta accompanied by changes in alignment? Is one more causative than the other Define meta. Specifically, do you mean meta or playstyle here, because I suspect you're looking for playstyle. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cash67 Posted November 21, 2022 Report Share Posted November 21, 2022 Egg has arrived in the town square, bringing enough eggs from his chickens to feed the whole High Council. He set up to the side, and puts up a sign that says “Breakfast for the Council” and waits for a request. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shining Silhouette Posted November 21, 2022 Report Share Posted November 21, 2022 3 minutes ago, Kasimir said: Define meta. Specifically, do you mean meta or playstyle here, because I suspect you're looking for playstyle. To Kas: Spoiler Spoiler You're exposing me here! I'm in the open in-thread! I suppose I meant player-meta but that's the wrong term, right. So yeah, playstyle Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Archer Posted November 21, 2022 Report Share Posted November 21, 2022 Y'all are overexplaining this. v!Turtle has a history of being an apologetic voter, so it's moot. Didn't want to say that earlier because a preemptive defense ruins the pressure Stick was trying to apply. Now that I've quickly glanced at the rules, lets throw some distribution guesses out there. Ash said they could accommodate up to 21 players (before they had to significantly alter the distro), so that should be informative. The first piece a GM figures out (and therefore is hesitant to move) is the e;v ratio. I'd guess 21+ would force 7, while our current number has six elims. Lets assume a villager Shaman, using similar logic as my argument for v!Beedle in the Zelda game. Lets guess all the blades are in play, because why make mechanics if you aren't going to use them. The village potentially having the ability to yoink blades away from elims might also imply heavy stocking of the elim armory? We for sure have Jezrien's blade, which is an elim kill scan. Giving the elims Shalash or Pailiah for the Illumination (scan block) makes sense as a counter measure. Chanarach is probably in village hands because the Division kill power is more balanced there. Vedel or Pailiah therefore should go to the elims to give them a Progression killblock. Then I'd probably give the elims a Transformation blade scanner from Shalash or Battar. Or a vote manip to balance the amount of village players they need to work against. So I'm gonna guess the elims have Shalash, Pailiah, and uh, Ishar! Thoughts? 1 minute ago, Cash67 said: Egg has arrived in the town square, bringing enough eggs from his chickens to feed the whole High Council. He set up to the side, and puts up a sign that says “Breakfast for the Council” and waits for a request. "MORE ROCK!" Tweedle-son-Dee shouted, tripping over their own feet as they rushed to the dinner. "ROCK ROOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOCKS! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mat Posted November 21, 2022 Report Share Posted November 21, 2022 1 minute ago, Archer said: Now that I've quickly glanced at the rules, lets throw some distribution guesses out there. Ash said they could accommodate up to 21 players (before they had to significantly alter the distro), so that should be informative. The first piece a GM figures out (and therefore is hesitant to move) is the e;v ratio. I'd guess 21+ would force 7, while our current number has six elims. Lets assume a villager Shaman, using similar logic as my argument for v!Beedle in the Zelda game. I didn't realize we had 20 players. Huh. How would 21 force 7 elims? 1/3 is an insane ratio and I don't see any mechanics that would warrant it. I'd guess 5 elims right now. Also, pretty sure the Shaman is a conf village role. Archer Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cash67 Posted November 21, 2022 Report Share Posted November 21, 2022 1 minute ago, Archer said: "MORE ROCK!" Tweedle-son-Dee shouted, tripping over their own feet as they rushed to the dinner. "ROCK ROOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOCKS! “Rocks? I’m afraid we don’t serve rocks here, that’d be a slight bit of heresy *snort*, but I could make you a crunchy omelette if you’d like.” also all of the above speculation is assuming that this game was balanced and the honorblades were not randomly distributed. Imma double check the rules real fast to see if that was the case. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mat Posted November 21, 2022 Report Share Posted November 21, 2022 Just now, Cash67 said: also all of the above speculation is assuming that this game was balanced and the honorblades were not randomly distributed. Imma double check the rules real fast to see if that was the case. Generally speaking, games are balanced with alignments getting specific roles attached, but then those are randomly distributed. So Ash didn't handpick the elims, but in theory he handpicked what blades the elims got. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Archer Posted November 21, 2022 Report Share Posted November 21, 2022 (edited) 7 minutes ago, Matrim's Dice said: How would 21 force 7 elims? 1/3 is an insane ratio and I don't see any mechanics that would warrant it. I'd guess 5 elims right now. Also, pretty sure the Shaman is a conf village role. Yeah that checks out. 5 which would have turned to 6 on 21 makes sense. 6 minutes ago, Cash67 said: “Rocks? I’m afraid we don’t serve rocks here, that’d be a slight bit of heresy *snort*, but I could make you a crunchy omelette if you’d like.” Tweedle-son-Dee reached into his... back pocket and produced a dirty Oathstone. "This! Best meal. You! Worst meal." To prove their his point, he swallowed it again as a second course. Edited November 21, 2022 by Archer Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kasimir Posted November 21, 2022 Report Share Posted November 21, 2022 4 minutes ago, Archer said: Y'all are overexplaining this. v!Turtle has a history of being an apologetic voter, so it's moot. Didn't want to say that earlier because a preemptive defense ruins the pressure Stick was trying to apply. Fairly high confidence judgement to make on p2 of D1. Interested in where that comes from - V! and E! Turtle are both apologetic and waffly in my book so I don't take that as exculpatory. 1 minute ago, Matrim's Dice said: Generally speaking, games are balanced with alignments getting specific roles attached, but then those are randomly distributed. So Ash didn't handpick the elims, but in theory he handpicked what blades the elims got. 3 minutes ago, Cash67 said: “Rocks? I’m afraid we don’t serve rocks here, that’d be a slight bit of heresy *snort*, but I could make you a crunchy omelette if you’d like.” also all of the above speculation is assuming that this game was balanced and the honorblades were not randomly distributed. Imma double check the rules real fast to see if that was the case. Even then, the GM will do several distros and reject the ones that are prima facie bad. But common practice is not for the Elims to randomise for roles - the GM will pick those to ensure the Elim team is functional, as is the Village, and then randomise for players in those slots. Or you can do what Meta does, preselect the distro. Say you know the team has an E!Seeker. Then you run RNG for roles and select among three players who randed Seeker for who you want Elim. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Bookwyrm Posted November 21, 2022 Report Share Posted November 21, 2022 Okay, I'm going to retract my Insanity poke vote and think about this a little more closely. D1 is always the hardest... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cash67 Posted November 21, 2022 Report Share Posted November 21, 2022 4 minutes ago, Matrim's Dice said: Generally speaking, games are balanced with alignments getting specific roles attached, but then those are randomly distributed. So Ash didn't handpick the elims, but in theory he handpicked what blades the elims got. Yeah there is nothing about how honorblades are currently distributed , but when the shaman takes action and can’t offload the stuff fast enough, then it becomes random handouts Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mat Posted November 21, 2022 Report Share Posted November 21, 2022 1 minute ago, The Bookwyrm said: Okay, I'm going to retract my Insanity poke vote and think about this a little more closely. Insanity Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Bookwyrm Posted November 21, 2022 Report Share Posted November 21, 2022 Just now, Matrim's Dice said: Insanity ....Okay, then... @InfiniteInsanity, do you have anything to say about this? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Archer Posted November 21, 2022 Report Share Posted November 21, 2022 1 minute ago, Kasimir said: Fairly high confidence judgement to make on p2 of D1. Interested in where that comes from - V! and E! Turtle are both apologetic and waffly in my book so I don't take that as exculpatory. The key word was moot - as in not indicative either way 1 minute ago, Cash67 said: Yeah there is nothing about how honorblades are currently distributed , but when the shaman takes action and can’t offload the stuff fast enough, then it becomes random handouts That's a good reminder that the endgame favors the elims because their odds of item acquisition go up Just now, The Bookwyrm said: ....Okay, then... @InfiniteInsanity, do you have anything to say about this? Do you? :P. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cash67 Posted November 21, 2022 Report Share Posted November 21, 2022 1 minute ago, Archer said: Yeah that checks out. 5 which would have turned to 6 on 21 makes sense. Tweedle-son-Dee reached into his... back pocket and produced a dirty Oathstone. "This! Best meal. You! Worst meal." To prove their his point, he swallowed it again as a second course. Egg stares in shock at what he has just witnessed. A rock, and Oathstone, digested?! He does not know what to make of this and so does what he does best: ”Well… um….. let’s see if you would like to try the Crunchy Special” And he proceeds to make a spinach omelet and throws in the shells and a sprinkling of dirt for Tweedle-Son-Dee Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kasimir Posted November 21, 2022 Report Share Posted November 21, 2022 Just now, Archer said: The key word was moot - as in not indicative either way Ah, ok, my bad - read you as saying this was 'moot' as in there's no point because it's V!Turtle, which I thought was overly-hasty. This, however, reads like a more reasonable stance to have. Just now, Archer said: That's a good reminder that the endgame favors the elims because their odds of item acquisition go up It's the function of the Stone Shaman role, and probably a reason the Elims will be glad to take it out - the Shaman makes Blade accumulation risky because they are confirmed Village and can see who is accumulating Blades, as well as to keep Blades in circulation. That first part shouldn't be underestimated as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Bookwyrm Posted November 21, 2022 Report Share Posted November 21, 2022 2 minutes ago, Archer said: Do you? :P. It's day one, and we're filled with CHAOS! That's all. (But seriously, it's hard to read anyone accurately at this stage.) 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Araris Valerian Posted November 21, 2022 Report Share Posted November 21, 2022 1 hour ago, Kasimir said: @Araris Valerian summoning spell cast. *poof* Yeah? In regards to votes, I’m pretty sure Alvron is elim. I used a strategy of piling onto a teammate that had been poke-voted as an elim to get everyone to back off of them, and also caught an elim doing that as well. So count me suspicious of anything that looks vaguely like that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kasimir Posted November 21, 2022 Report Share Posted November 21, 2022 18 minutes ago, Shining Silhouette said: To Kas: Reveal hidden contents Reveal hidden contents You're exposing me here! I'm in the open in-thread! I suppose I meant player-meta but that's the wrong term, right. So yeah, playstyle Right sorry Silho got distracted by the Archer and Turtle affray. So the main reason I ask is that if you use the word 'playstyle', then it becomes sort of obvious I think. It's easier to recognise when alignment influences a player's playstyle if you have a track record of their tendencies when Village and when Evil. Maybe V!them has a habit of running into every single fray they possible can, maybe E!them stays aloof or plays reactively. Maybe V!them has a tendency to aggressively push and litigate the exe, while E!them hangs back and lets the Village do it. Ideally, players of a certain school of thought aim to increase as far as possible the overlaps between E!them and V!them. In theory, it's a perfect circle for some players. And for some players, there's just a huge night and day difference with minimal overlap. I do think a number of current SE players overestimate their ability to infer alignment from playstyle, and it's not my favourite inference to draw. (I'm the voting guy, remember? This stops me from over-tunnelling.) Looking at playstyle shifts can be distracting, e.g. when a player happens to be dealing with bad RL, or poor Internet, and there's the infamous Xino engagement drop when he's on mobile. Players like Archer (well Archer used to, IDK if he still does that) shift playstyle and experiment basically every game or every other game, meaning that a change in playstyle is expected, so you can't really infer from that. Xino in BT1 also picked a playstyle that would've been insanely suicidal for an Elim so that was decent grounds for a Village read IMO, at least a prima facie one. There's a meta reason I dislike it, and that has to do with a period in SE history where a lot of players were pinned down by playstyle, sometimes into playstyles that made them unhappy and they weren't allowed to change. I can give you the citations in a bit, I'm just cutting this short because Araris did something kayana I don't understand and it is very important to me I yell about it. Of course, since you're directing the question to me, I could very well say that if you're asking me, I stand by what I've said numerous occasions before: I am a good transparent Village boi and my Village play is very obviously different from my Elim play in philosophy, interest/engagement level, and so on 1 minute ago, Araris Valerian said: *poof* Yeah? In regards to votes, I’m pretty sure Alvron is elim. I used a strategy of piling onto a teammate that had been poke-voted as an elim to get everyone to back off of them, and also caught an elim doing that as well. So count me suspicious of anything that looks vaguely like that. The what. The frith the what. Bro. Has Alv even voted yet. Am I drunk. Are we looking at the same game. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Bookwyrm Posted November 21, 2022 Report Share Posted November 21, 2022 3 minutes ago, Araris Valerian said: *poof* Yeah? In regards to votes, I’m pretty sure Alvron is elim. I used a strategy of piling onto a teammate that had been poke-voted as an elim to get everyone to back off of them, and also caught an elim doing that as well. So count me suspicious of anything that looks vaguely like that. Alvron hasn't posted yet....I'm confused. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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