Archer Posted December 5, 2022 Report Share Posted December 5, 2022 5 minutes ago, Chantara said: You’re asking all the right questions to be V. Aman could fake this, I'd focus on reading Xino. Although I do think pinch hitters are statisticly more likely to be evil 13 minutes ago, Ookla the Remembered said: Ah, okay. I still really liked Turtle's start of D4 so if that's all, I'm leaning V. What's the deal with Silho? ED1T: What're your thoughts on me then? I cover Silh in the middle of this post. E!Chan leading to v!JNV is actually super helpful for making e!Silh work. I was confused why JNV didn't bus. Silh gets credit for I think being the third vote on Stick, but Kas was heading there anyway so the CW might have been doomed of they couldn't count on a hammer and lacked thread control Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amanuensis Posted December 5, 2022 Report Share Posted December 5, 2022 6 minutes ago, Ookla the Paragrapher said: Aman could fake this, I'd focus on reading Xino. Although I do think pinch hitters are statisticly more likely to be evil Can confirm the first half. I'm curious about the stats on the second, though. Where's Kas and his fancy graphs when you need him >> 7 minutes ago, Ookla the Paragrapher said: I cover Silh in the middle of this post. E!Chan leading to v!JNV is actually super helpful for making e!Silh work. I was confused why JNV didn't bus. Silh gets credit for I think being the third vote on Stick, but Kas was heading there anyway so the CW might have been doomed of they couldn't count on a hammer and lacked thread control Right, I even liked that post kinda forget about Silho after they vanished. European timezone? How does Silho being the 2nd vote on e!Chan fit into this tho? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Elkanah Posted December 5, 2022 Report Share Posted December 5, 2022 (edited) On 12/3/2022 at 6:43 PM, Araris Valerian said: Turtle/JNV/Chantara/Shining, in decreasing order of suspicion. I mean, we need to consider that along with inactivity, the elim team has had poor internal communication. That sort of thing could reasonably explain e!Shining's interactions with Stick. And if all the elims jumped on Stick, that would just make them easy to catch for all being in the same place. This team makes sense to me. I just suggested a very similar one with Chantara and InfiniteInsanity on the bubble for the fourth elim. Why did you have Turtle higher on your suspicion list here than Chantara given you knew Chantara had Illwei's blade? Just to be clear, are you suggesting that half the team wanted to bus and the other half didn't or am I misreading your post? 10 hours ago, Araris Valerian said: What is your take on Shining aggressively voting for Stick during D3? Do you think there was doc miscommunication that led to the rapid change of tactics? I need to reread that section. Voting for Stick does support them being a villager. I believe they posted a distancing vote and left before the train took off. 9 hours ago, Araris Valerian said: Hey, long time @Amanuensis! Glad to have you, since I could really use the help figuring this one out. I think the team is Shining, Chantara, Elkanah, and either Tani or Insanity. There's a remote possibility that Archer swaps for one of Shining/Elk because of their antagonism this cycle, but I give that low credence. There's an alternate world in which both JNV and Turtle are elims, but that is making less and less sense to me. So Turtle, Chantara. I don't see any world where Chantara is village. I agree. I could use a fresh pair of eyes. Welcome to the game Amanuensis! This is a very different list. What changed in an hour? Also, is your main reason for suspecting me that I didn't start with a blade? I wasn't going to admit to that to keep up the possibility that I started with Chanarach, but Shining Silhouette confirming you were right means either you are on a team together or you got the info from Alvron. I believe you are village and therefore the latter. (Unless I just want the elims to think I didn't start with Chanarach ) Ah here they are. I still think this is correct, though I still have some information you don't have (my GM PM that says I'm village). This was the first point this cycle where I thought "huh, maybe Araris is Tukari." I'm grateful for the follow up information. 9 hours ago, Ookla the Remembered said: *bows respectively* Hello. Silho right? Don't believe we've met! Hey Araris! I can't promise to be 100% Aman this game (currently back in college and things are getting especially busy before the holidays) but will do my best and at the very least be active enough to vote. I was following along early game and caught Stick myself; was very happy when y'all got her outta here I cleared you and Archer for that reason, and I'm confident in V!Tani for reasons Kas mentioned early on in the game (basically a vibe check). Everyone else is kind of a meh blob for me tho. Is there anything you all can tell me to help solidify the rest of those reads? Hello Aman! Welcome back! 8 hours ago, Araris Valerian said: I guess I should say something about this; I know via a PM with Kas (yeah, I had the third one and know a whole bunch of other stuff) that Chantara got Illwei's blade, and also is in the 5-person group of living players that didn't start with a blade. Presumably 3/5 elims didn't start with a blade, so Bob's your uncle and Chantara's elim. Wait... *does some math things* So if the pool is Shining, Elk, Chantara, Turtle, and VillagerGuy AND I know I am !V THEN Shining, Chantara and Turtle are !E. Sorry, that also assumes that three elims did not start with blades, but I'm comfortable with that grouping. I was not following that bob is your uncle logic. apparently I needed it spelled out. 7 hours ago, Ookla the Paragrapher said: 1 Can someone please claim this. 2 Confirmed village isn't confirmed right, so it's an interesting approach. Silh and JNV's confused me 3 how about we not leave it until 2am my time to decide :D. 4,5 Well it wasn't aggressive was it. It was with four hours to go, which could be the point where the elims had given up and started bussing (remember, timezones mean the functional EoD is sooner than real EoD). It's a question of does Shining's progression make sense? Do we trust that elims fought longer - as hopefully evidenced by JNV's vote? Put another way, gone to sleep because the bus had begun? Or because you aren't e-e with Stick? I'm 100% sure there's one elim in Shining and JNV and I can't tell which it is. If it's as simple as they're both evil I will scream. JNV, Turtle, Chantara. That's Team Too Little Too Late, so your D3 elims did nothing useful. Which is believable. Numbers mine. 1 Done 2 No, but reasons is reasons and effort is effort. 3 It looks like we've settled at midnight (consolation prize). I just wanted to make sure that one person can't switch and throw the vote. Coordinating four is still possible, but I think less likely at this point. 4 This is in reference to Shining Silhouette's vote on Stick. I thought it was earlier in the train and not really a threat to Stick's life (but I still need to review). 5 Ooooooh I finally get it. sorry for being slow. Yeah it's weird that JNV and Shining Silhouette would go two very different ways on the Stick lynch. That would show either they aren't teamed or one of them didn't check the doc... or maybe a disagreement? Unlikely but possible: they used it to distance. If one gets caught the other gains trust. I still think the evidence supports E!Shining Silhouette, but I admit that comes from knowing my alignment and the bladeless information. 6 hours ago, Ookla the Remembered said: I was so confused trying to figure out how 3 people hadn't voted but there were 8 votes here lol. Turns out I counted two of Elk's votes >> This one should finally be correct. (3) Chantara: Araris, Silhouette, Aman (2) Turtle: JNV, Chantara, (2) JNV: Tani, Archer, (1) Silhouette: Elkanah, I will absolutely take two votes. I'm even okay with having both where you put them, although if you want to add them both to the train that's good too. 2 hours ago, Ookla the Remembered said: Much appreciated o7 TBH I wasn't convinced myself by Araris' initial presentation, just wanted to add some weight to his vote and see what shook out. Then the JNV claim thing happened. I guess the crux of my problem is using Illumination over Progression, if I disregard the one post that made my gut-bells jingle. I find it really hard to reconcile that with a Villager, but I guess if you're on the newer side it's not as damning as I initially perceived. I guess I have two questions (first for you, second for everyone else): What's your mafia experience like? Have you played a lot of games in the last 9 months or are you an expat from MU? If not, how many do you have under your belt? Would anyone have used Illumination over Progression in Chantara's shoes? @Ookla the Debonair @Araris Valerian @Ookla the Implosion @InfiniteInsanity @Elkanah I can't say I would as a villager. As an elim it makes perfect sense and I probably would do it, yes. EDIT Oops sorry @Ashbringer I forgot to vote Chantara Shining Silhouette Edited December 5, 2022 by Elkanah Forgot to vote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Araris Valerian Posted December 5, 2022 Report Share Posted December 5, 2022 14 minutes ago, Elkanah said: This is a very different list. What changed in an hour? Mostly me deciding to do something with what Kas/Alv had given me. And connecting the dots with Paliah. JNV’s claim also caused me to start considering a world where he and Turtle are village. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Elkanah Posted December 5, 2022 Report Share Posted December 5, 2022 Fair enough. Would it be fair to say you believe if E!Turtle then E!JNV or just the other way around? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Araris Valerian Posted December 5, 2022 Report Share Posted December 5, 2022 4 minutes ago, Elkanah said: Fair enough. Would it be fair to say you believe if E!Turtle then E!JNV or just the other way around? Probably both ways right now, but stronger in the JNV -> Turtle direction. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amanuensis Posted December 5, 2022 Report Share Posted December 5, 2022 30 minutes remaining. I'm not sure I have more to add without seeing this flip. No other case feels comparatively as solid. Crossing my fingers x Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ashbringer Posted December 5, 2022 Author Report Share Posted December 5, 2022 Time! Rollover shortly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ashbringer Posted December 5, 2022 Author Report Share Posted December 5, 2022 (edited) LG91 Night 5: With Pain The Storm Who could have killed a Stone Shaman? Many people in Earthen Truth revered the Shamanism. Thought it governed by the True Will of the Almighty, even above the Splinters of him that they held. And in some ways they were right. But in some ways even the Almighty had been vulnerable, as were the Shamans. But who could have done so? One individual had an idea. That someone - Chantara - had hidden from their sight somehow. Potentially a trick of the blade of Illumination. One of those Blades had been with the Tukari from the beginning until Stick's death, but another had been with Illwei when they died. And not seen since. An initial search of Chantara found nothing. But then someone took a gemstone from them, and it burst into light, and the various coins shimmered and turned into Tukari symbols. Another had been found. But they were not done here. Chantara was executed! They were a Tukari Invader and the Bearer of Paliah's Honorblade! Kalak's Honorblade has been reclaimed or redistributed! Paliah's Honorblade has been redistributed! Vote Count (corrected): Chantara (7): Araris Valerian, JNV, Shining Silhouette / Ookla the Debonair, Amanuensis / Ookla the Remembered, InfiniteInsanity, Archer / Ookla the Paragrapher, Elkanah Turtle / Ookla the POKE VOTE (1): Chantara JNV (1): Tani / Ookla the Implosion The turn will end on Monday, December 5th at 11:00 PM PST. Player List: Spoiler @ookla the POKE VOTE / Turtle- Evelt-son-Urtal @Araris Valerian - Hadrian-son-Penrod Ookla the Unknown / The Unknown Novel - Dali-son-Nar - Shin High Council The Wandering Wizard - Tweedle-son-son-Dumb - Shin High Council Ookla the Tall / Matrim's Dice - Dazi-son-ron - Shin High Council @JNV - Jen-child-Verin Ookla the Perpetual / The Bookwyrm - Rizam-son-Azram - Shin High Council @Ookla the Debonair / Shining Silhouette - Cheshire-son-Cat @Ookla the Remembered / Amanuensis - Ookla the Forgotten / xinoehp512 - Jet-son-Blanc Kasimir - Kvaseth-son-Wysan - Shin High Council @InfiniteInsanity Chantara - Tukari Invader, Bearer of Paliah's Honorblade _Stick_ - Tukari Invader, Bearer of Shalash's Honorblade Cash67 - Egg-son-Chicken - Shin High Council, Bearer of Battar's Honorblade Illwei - Shin High Council, Bearer of Paliah's Honorblade @Ookla the Paragrapher / Archer - Tweedle-son-Dee Alvron - Izzy-daughter-Ammi - Stone Shaman, Bearer of Kalak's Honorblade @Ookla the Implosion / Tani - Daalna @Elkanah - Sun-son-son-Tsu Ookla the Omnicient / Szeth_Pancakes - Shin High Council Edited December 5, 2022 by Ashbringer red 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amanuensis Posted December 5, 2022 Report Share Posted December 5, 2022 We did the thing! Yay! Now I can slep easy Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Archer Posted December 5, 2022 Report Share Posted December 5, 2022 6 minutes ago, Ookla the Remembered said: We did the thing! Yay! Now I can slep easy You're lucky it was an elim flip. You've heavily committed to a game that could have just been lost. :P. Good job, Araris. Paliah, protect that man. I imagine I'll be the kill instead, but I'm worth less mechanically, so don't worry about me. Under no circumstances protect me over Araris. It'd be an absolutely bonkers move. I completely forbid it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amanuensis Posted December 5, 2022 Report Share Posted December 5, 2022 (edited) 31 minutes ago, Ookla the Paragrapher said: You're lucky it was an elim flip. You've heavily committed to a game that could have just been lost. :P. Good job, Araris. Paliah, protect that man. I imagine I'll be the kill instead, but I'm worth less mechanically, so don't worry about me. Under no circumstances protect me over Araris. It'd be an absolutely bonkers move. I completely forbid it. Yeah, I would have taken a lion's share of responsibility for losing the game otherwise =\ I started feeling bad near the end since I was the one most directly picking Chan apart and the lack of resistance was very disheartening. But where do we go now? ED1T: 47 minutes ago, Ashbringer said: Vote Count: Chantara (7): Araris Valerian, JNV, Shining Silhouette / Ookla the Debonair, Amanuensis / Ookla the Remembered, InfiniteInsanity, Archer / Ookla the Paragrapher, Elkanah Turtle / Ookla the POKE VOTE (1): Tani / Ookla the Implosion JNV (1): Chantara No-Vote: Turtle / Ookla the POKE VOTE Unless the team is literally Tani/Turtle, we definitely have a buser. Araris is as hard-cleared as I'm willing to hard-clear without a scan. I feel very good about JNV, would be too kayana to fake scan his partner like that imo. Silho wasn't here to see the Chan votes go out of control, and they didn't really push Chan at all, just sheeped (shept?) Araris initially to get pressure off themselves, so maybe? I trust Archer for multiple mind-melds early game and a clear desire to solve, not to mention the Stick push. Elkanah was Stick's preferred exe + vibes I've had, but there's a chance that was distancing so I should probably ISO him to form a more concrete opinion. Which just leaves Infinite who joined in later following our lead, so? V: Araris JNV Archer N+: Elkanah Turtle N: Tani Silho Infinite Something like that. My priority for D6 would be exploring the N tier. Edited December 5, 2022 by Ookla the Remembered Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ookla of Colors Posted December 5, 2022 Report Share Posted December 5, 2022 (edited) Okay what happened? Why did my vote move?? Edit: I think this is the most surreality I've ever experienced when coming back after a Sunday... Edit2: Is that just what vote manip looks like in this game? Edit3: What blade does vote manip again? Edit4: @Ashbringer Can you tell me if it's on purpose that my vote moved? Edited December 5, 2022 by Ookla the Implosion Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shining Silhouette Posted December 5, 2022 Report Share Posted December 5, 2022 (edited) 1 hour ago, Ookla the Implosion said: Okay what happened? Why did my vote move?? Edit: I think this is the most surreality I've ever experienced when coming back after a Sunday... Edit2: Is that just what vote manip looks like in this game? Edit3: What blade does vote manip again? Edit4: @Ashbringer Can you tell me if it's on purpose that my vote moved? 4 edits :000000 6 hours ago, Ookla the Remembered said: Silho wasn't here to see the Chan votes go out of control, and they didn't really push Chan at all, just sheeped (shept?) Second time and it payed off :3 Edited December 5, 2022 by Ookla the Debonair Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ookla of Colors Posted December 5, 2022 Report Share Posted December 5, 2022 11 minutes ago, Ookla the Debonair said: 4 edits :000000 It's called Them Evil Twins, Panick and Confusion. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shining Silhouette Posted December 5, 2022 Report Share Posted December 5, 2022 2 minutes ago, Ookla the Implosion said: It's called Them Evil Twins, Panick and Confusion. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ashbringer Posted December 5, 2022 Author Report Share Posted December 5, 2022 4 hours ago, Ookla the Implosion said: Okay what happened? Why did my vote move?? Edit: I think this is the most surreality I've ever experienced when coming back after a Sunday... Edit2: Is that just what vote manip looks like in this game? Edit3: What blade does vote manip again? Edit4: @Ashbringer Can you tell me if it's on purpose that my vote moved? ... huh? ... oh. Nope I think I swapped yours and Chantara's. Real D5 Vote Count: Chantara (7): Araris Valerian, JNV, Shining Silhouette / Ookla the Debonair, Amanuensis / Ookla the Remembered, InfiniteInsanity, Archer / Ookla the Paragrapher, Elkanah Turtle / Ookla the POKE VOTE (1): Chantara JNV (1): Tani / Ookla the Implosion Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shining Silhouette Posted December 5, 2022 Report Share Posted December 5, 2022 Is this AI????????? /j Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Araris Valerian Posted December 5, 2022 Report Share Posted December 5, 2022 @Ookla the Implosion, would you mind claiming your blade? I'm planning to do an info dump the last second before the thread closes (so the elims can't factor it into their kill/actions), and knowing which blade you have will be helpful in determining the full distribution. Also, @JNV, if you scan whoever got Kalak then that's almost certainly the person that killed Alvron, since there's not a ton of reason for them to give up a roleblock blade. I suppose also if Chantara killed Alv then someone random would get Kalak, but I'd guess the elims would want someone not already holding a blade to be sending in the kills. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ookla of Colors Posted December 5, 2022 Report Share Posted December 5, 2022 16 minutes ago, Araris Valerian said: @Ookla the Implosion, would you mind claiming your blade? I'm planning to do an info dump the last second before the thread closes (so the elims can't factor it into their kill/actions), and knowing which blade you have will be helpful in determining the full distribution. I'd really rather not, but ok I have Vedel's blade. C1 I protected myself, C2 I protected Kas, C3 I had no stormlight, C4 and 5 I haven't used it (yet.) Tonight I'll be protecting myself, since the elims now know my blade. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Araris Valerian Posted December 5, 2022 Report Share Posted December 5, 2022 (edited) 1 hour ago, Ookla the Implosion said: I'd really rather not, but ok I have Vedel's blade. C1 I protected myself, C2 I protected Kas, C3 I had no stormlight, C4 and 5 I haven't used it (yet.) Tonight I'll be protecting myself, since the elims now know my blade. Now that is really not what I was hoping to hear... Maybe flip a coin between protecting yourself and me? Paliah could do the same, and that leaves the elims doing a lot of guesswork. They can't really afford a 50% chance of failing the NK at this point. Edit: I'm curious, and this is maybe asking for a lot of speculation, but given that we have confirmed the village started with Chana (well, this is pretty sure at least), Paliah, and Battar, which blades do y'all think Ash would have given to the elims? Or do folks think this is a fruitless line of thought and Ash is an unrepentant troll? I was sort of thinking they'd get Vedel to counter Chana, but Aman has v!Tani credences. Edited December 5, 2022 by Araris Valerian Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amanuensis Posted December 5, 2022 Report Share Posted December 5, 2022 2 hours ago, Araris Valerian said: Edit: I'm curious, and this is maybe asking for a lot of speculation, but given that we have confirmed the village started with Chana (well, this is pretty sure at least), Paliah, and Battar, which blades do y'all think Ash would have given to the elims? Or do folks think this is a fruitless line of thought and Ash is an unrepentant troll? I was sort of thinking they'd get Vedel to counter Chana, but Aman has v!Tani credences. I finally got to reading the game's rules, but don't feel anywhere near comfortable enough to make guesses myself. That's never really been my strong suit. That said, v!Tani is one of my least confident reads. I'd need to go back to figure out exactly what made me feel that way. After yesterday, I dropped her down into my bottom tier due to other players moving higher, so it could go either way imo Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Araris Valerian Posted December 5, 2022 Report Share Posted December 5, 2022 10 minutes ago, Ookla the Remembered said: I finally got to reading the game's rules, but don't feel anywhere near comfortable enough to make guesses myself. That's never really been my strong suit. That said, v!Tani is one of my least confident reads. I'd need to go back to figure out exactly what made me feel that way. After yesterday, I dropped her down into my bottom tier due to other players moving higher, so it could go either way imo Yeah, and part of the problem here is that the distribution changes with time, generally shifting more blades to the elims, especially once the Shaman dies. But in a world where the elims don’t find the Shaman, they are realistically stuck with their starting blades and maybe 1-2 more random ones. And that makes me think they need to start with Progression or Transformation (to find a Progression blade or Chana). Or both. And Stick did start with Shalash… Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ashbringer Posted December 5, 2022 Author Report Share Posted December 5, 2022 (Sorry for re-tagging, just making sure the Ookla tags work) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amanuensis Posted December 5, 2022 Report Share Posted December 5, 2022 (edited) 37 minutes ago, Araris Valerian said: Yeah, and part of the problem here is that the distribution changes with time, generally shifting more blades to the elims, especially once the Shaman dies. But in a world where the elims don’t find the Shaman, they are realistically stuck with their starting blades and maybe 1-2 more random ones. And that makes me think they need to start with Progression or Transformation (to find a Progression blade or Chana). Or both. And Stick did start with Shalash… Okay so lemme try to work this out. Xino --> Kalak Honorblade Transportation (Roleblock) Cohesion (Riot) Illwei --> Paliah Honorblade Progression (Lurcher) Illumination (Smoker) Stick --> Shallash Honorblade Illumination (Smoker) Transformation (Seeker) Cash --> Battar Honorblade Transformation (Seeker) Transportation (Roleblock) Tani --> Vedel Honorblade Abrasion (Tineye) Progression (Lurcher) Vigilante --> Chanarach Honorblade Division (Coinshot) Abrasion (Tineye) JNV --> Jezrien Honorblade Adhesion (Soother) Gravitation (Lookout) Unknown --> Ishar Honorblade Tension (Grants more stormlight to another player) Adhesion (Soother) Ishar blade seems like it'd be especially useful for the elims, given if they get more blades from kills / use charges every turn, their team could accumulate more power. In contrast, it would be difficult for a village!Ishar to successfully get their extra charges to someone who needs it. e!Lurcher is a natural defense against v!Coinshot, but given misfires happen and the elims for sure had a Seeker in Stick + could randomly kill the Coinshot by happenstance, I could see it going either way. Definitely worth us discussing going into tomorrow's exe. Two v!Lurchers with no e!Ishar and limited e!Coinshot kills is a feasible set up. Kas would say something about Beaglegate, probably, but I defer to your judgement Araris, since you know Chana's identity and I don't. If no Ishar in the game, I would imagine the elims started with Vedel, Chana, or Jezrien, but that last one would require JNV bussing their teammate with a fake scan for the long game and I don't buy it. Potentially worth discussing either way ED1T: @Araris Valerian did you play the last iteration of this game, and if so, do you remember what the distro was like in that game? ED2T: You know, something that I don't know if it's been discussed but seems relevant. The Alvron Shaman kill. Was it a lucky guess or is it possible one of the people he claimed to in PMs is an elim? Edited December 5, 2022 by Ookla the Remembered Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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