Long Game 91: A Fresh Start in Shinovar

[The Unknown Ajah]

So, I'm going to lead out with saying that Archer looks really bad off this flip. I kinda just accepted Kas' credences that Archer was v without looking at the reason. After seeing the flip, I went back to have a look at them, and they are most fundamentally based on Archer being the Stick counter train. I started that train, and I know I'm v, so I think Stick was hopping on as distancing, since they were pretty much a lost cause at that point. I feel that JNV likely isn't e/e with Archer (when I first looked back I kinda thought the jump on Kas was to protect them, which it still might be, but I think them voting each other points to a not e/e connection), but that there are very light Elk e/e credences, but I also don't think Archer would try to vote out Elk as e anyways since they were fairly widely considered v at that point (I think).

My team guess as of right now would be Archer, Xino, Insanity, Turtle, maybe with Tani or  someone similar instead of Insanity or Turtle. I could potentially also see JNV in one of those slots as well, just means there was a decent amount of distancing going on. Chantara could certainly be a distancing attempt by Stick, but my plan of action for now would be Archee tomorrow, maybe Xino if you guys really don't want to go Archer, the whichever ones left over, then Turtle, and hopefully by then the last elim becomes clearer.

If we have the numbers (I'm tired and about to go to bed, so I'm not going to count), I might have to be exed in the near future to get it out of your systems.

[Archer]

I regret having stayed up for that

Speaking of trusting Kas. Insanity, no! Cash wasn't on Kas' radar, why would you frame it like that? 

Quote

After seeing the flip, I went back to have a look at them, and they are most fundamentally based on Archer being the Stick counter train

How'd you do a reread and miss the part where I led the voting against Stick? 

Off the top of my head, we're here because of Tani, right. But we can't vote them because that usurps the logical order and it'd be stupid to run that style of vote back again. E!JNV leads to e!Tani unless it's a 4D chess way of wasting an extra exe

or can I just vote TUN. Could be fun

I am dun

 

 

Edit: nope, couldn't sleep. TUN, you think the elim strategy was e!Stick contributes to the wagon on e!Xino, then e!I vote e!Stick? 

I'll reiterate the case against JNV for the coinshot's benefit. Kas says they were village reading Stick in their PM but not so subtly backtracked. They offered a CW to the Stick exe. They're not the Shaman because they've used a Blade. And I think they were on some exe wagons that went through and its safe to assume the elims contributed to them at some point. I hope. Just go look at a colored VC, you'll see what I mean 

Edited December 2, 2022 by Ookla the Paragrapher

[Araris Valerian]

7 hours ago, Ookla the Unknown said:

So, I'm going to lead out with saying that Archer looks really bad off this flip. I kinda just accepted Kas' credences that Archer was v without looking at the reason. After seeing the flip, I went back to have a look at them, and they are most fundamentally based on Archer being the Stick counter train. I started that train, and I know I'm v, so I think Stick was hopping on as distancing, since they were pretty much a lost cause at that point. I feel that JNV likely isn't e/e with Archer (when I first looked back I kinda thought the jump on Kas was to protect them, which it still might be, but I think them voting each other points to a not e/e connection), but that there are very light Elk e/e credences, but I also don't think Archer would try to vote out Elk as e anyways since they were fairly widely considered v at that point (I think).

My team guess as of right now would be Archer, Xino, Insanity, Turtle, maybe with Tani or  someone similar instead of Insanity or Turtle. I could potentially also see JNV in one of those slots as well, just means there was a decent amount of distancing going on. Chantara could certainly be a distancing attempt by Stick, but my plan of action for now would be Archee tomorrow, maybe Xino if you guys really don't want to go Archer, the whichever ones left over, then Turtle, and hopefully by then the last elim becomes clearer.

If we have the numbers (I'm tired and about to go to bed, so I'm not going to count), I might have to be exed in the near future to get it out of your systems.

How do you end up with Archer as an elim but completely discount me? I’m honestly a little insulted.

Edit: it’s also not like the Cash exe came entirely out of the blue. Both Turtle and I had mentioned suspicion there because of his D3 voting.

I also think TUN is pretty suspicious here. He was plenty happy to vote Cash last cycle with literally no reasoning and is now trying to set up the next exe on his terms based on someone else being part of that exe.

Edited December 2, 2022 by Araris Valerian

[Quivil]

Based on Turtle's statement that we probably have a mostly inactive Elim team, (not an exact quote,) I'm going to assume that most of the elims have probably not-voted at least once. This gives me a set of <Turtle, Silho, Chantara, Alv, Tani, Elk, Xino, Inity(InfiniteInsanity,) JNV.>

Of those, I currently trust Turtle, I think Alvron, and myself. Removing us three leaves me with a set of <Silho, Chantara, Elk, Xino, Inity, JNV.>

Of those, I currently suspect Xino and JNV most, and between the two of them I read JNV as more scummy. Also, Kas was leaning e!JNV in the end of N3. I think I'll vote him tomorrow, when I can actually vote.

 

I think that's all I have to say rn. I can rank the reads later, when I'm not in class.

Also, those reads are off the top of my head, not super strong with lots of thought, so sorry.

[Araris Valerian]

I… don’t trust Turtle. In fact I put Turtle slightly above Archer in terms of suspicion.

However, the inactive elim team thing is still relevant, and should be taken into consideration primarily with the timing of D3 votes, since that’s when elims who didn’t vote probably wanted to.

[Archer]

20 minutes ago, Ookla the Implosion said:

Based on Turtle's statement that we probably have a mostly inactive Elim team, (not an exact quote,) I'm going to assume that most of the elims have probably not-voted at least once. This gives me a set of <Turtle, Silho, Chantara, Alv, Tani, Elk, Xino, Inity(InfiniteInsanity,) JNV.>

You're better off going by post count. Our issue hasn't been getting votes, its been getting discussion. Voting is high priority to elims if it's consequential - which when an elim is up for exe D3, it is. I'm not a fan of that arbitrary grouping. (Not just because it excludes TUN.)

Also, why did you vote for Wiz that cycle you said *flips coin* Wiz. How exactly did you get to that vote? 

Last round, what's your response to the accusations that you seized upon my suspicion of Cash to move the thread from voting JNV to voting on Cash? I and others weren't going to vote Cash until you drove us in that direction. Are you worried you helped e!JNV out? 

15 minutes ago, Araris Valerian said:

I… don’t trust Turtle. In fact I put Turtle slightly above Archer in terms of suspicion.

Didn't Turtle do some hand wringing last cycle, along with Sil, yet not contest the exe that hard? That kind of behaviour looks like distancing from consequences. 

I invite the Shaman, PMer and maybe Chantara if you make a reasonable kill to consider claiming tomorrow. Don't do it before the NK, but do consider helping us disrupt the possibility of the team suggestion TUN is making by identifying conf villagers among that group. If it's a question of elim team of Tani, JNV, TUN vs Insanity, Xino, Alv it's clear that one makes sense and the other doesn't. Think it over if it's potential helpful to us. 

[Quivil]

28 minutes ago, Ookla the Paragrapher said:

You're better off going by post count. Our issue hasn't been getting votes, its been getting discussion. Voting is high priority to elims if it's consequential - which when an elim is up for exe D3, it is. I'm not a fan of that arbitrary grouping. (Not just because it excludes TUN.)

(Ed1t - Sorry, I forgot to answer this): Alright. I don't have time to count posts. Guess I can't really help here.

Quote

Also, why did you vote for Wiz that cycle you said *flips coin* Wiz. How exactly did you get to that vote? 

I flipped a coin between Wiz and Mat, with the purpose of making a four-way tie.

Sorry. It was late in the cycle and I didn't know anything, and I think that when I don't participate much C1 I'm more likely to get NK'd, so I was trying to do something and ties seemed in fashion.

Quote

Last round, what's your response to the accusations that you seized upon my suspicion of Cash to move the thread from voting JNV to voting on Cash? I and others weren't going to vote Cash until you drove us in that direction. Are you worried you helped e!JNV out? 

I didn't see those accusations, and yours and Turtle's reasons for suspicion were contagious. Also I thought his response to your suspicions was scummy. Again, sorry. I wasn't trying to help e!JNV, and think we should kill him as soon as we can.

Additionally, at the time I didn't know that you guys weren't going to vote Cash until after I did. I was planning to switch back to JNV in the consolidation portion of the day, but then everyone moved. Also also, I had a stronger elim read on Cash than on JNV, who I still haven't ISO'd thoroughly yet.

Maybe I just shouldn't trust my reads.

Edited December 2, 2022 by Ookla the Implosion

[Araris Valerian]

Okay, here’s the thing with Archer being elim. Stick just doesn’t die in this world. There’s no reason for that exe to happen. There’s plenty of lingering suspicion on people who were involved in the D1 tie, and I doubt all of them are elim. Even if a few of them are, bussing a low active teammate, or even two of them, is a way better play than losing Stick.

Once Kas goes down, Archer can run thread control, and only needs one more difficult misexe to win regardless, since with 5 elims and the missed vig kill, a misexe on C3 would leave things at 5:8 going into D4, and D5 can be hammered.

I was not super threatening D3 and might have gone after Archer on a theoretical non-Stick misexe D3 but I doubt I was threatening enough for the elims to bus one of their most active players.

So basically, if Archer is elim then I’m sorry, but you could have already won this so I’m just going to ignore that possibility henceforth.

[Archer]

47 minutes ago, Ookla the Implosion said:

I didn't see those accusations, and yours and Turtle's reasons for suspicion were contagious. Also I thought his response to your suspicions was scummy. Again, sorry. I wasn't trying to help e!JNV, and think we should kill him as soon as we can.

I'm getting the sense I've come on too hard here, so I apologize. Cash was a group decision. I'm only complaining in retrospect because I didn't catch the fallacy. And obviously some other villagers didn't either, but I do think we need to pursue the elims who moved us off of e!JNV if that is their alignment. 

Welcome to the Tie Guys club, which I've been kind of village reading so. Maybe you're not evil? :P. Also, getting some extra reads out of a temporary Cash vote you intended to switch back from is actually good play. 

And guess what! I misremembered. Tani wasn't the first vote on Cash. It was Turtle. *crowd gasps*

I too am not doing heavy rereading, and instead am hyperfocussed on the the D3 VC. Stick probably wasn't left out to dry, so was it TUN or JNV or both who tried to form CWs for them. I'm in a bad position to judge if TUN's suspicions of me are reasonable, so I appreciate comments like Araris'. 

So. TUN-JNV-Turtle anyone? 

23 minutes ago, Araris Valerian said:

I was not super threatening D3 

Noo don't talk like that, you're very scary! <3

[The Unknown Ajah]

8/4 Night kill 7/4 I get exed 6/4 Night kill 5/4 Someone else gets mixed 4/4 we lose. We can afford to kill me, if you guys have to during the day. I know vote analysis, which is the only thing that matters, says that I'm likely to be or possibly an elim, so if you really have to, exe me. Chana, theoretically you could kill me too, but if you don't go after one of the higher e!credences it's going to be 8/4 You kill me and the elims kill whoever 6/4 we mix someone 5/4 and after the night kill 4/4 is very bad for us, though still technically winnable. If we kill an elim at any point our lives get a bit easier.

[Araris Valerian]

3 minutes ago, Ookla the Unknown said:

8/4 Night kill 7/4 I get exed 6/4 Night kill 5/4 Someone else gets mixed 4/4 we lose. We can afford to kill me, if you guys have to during the day. I know vote analysis, which is the only thing that matters, says that I'm likely to be or possibly an elim, so if you really have to, exe me. Chana, theoretically you could kill me too, but if you don't go after one of the higher e!credences it's going to be 8/4 You kill me and the elims kill whoever 6/4 we mix someone 5/4 and after the night kill 4/4 is very bad for us, though still technically winnable. If we kill an elim at any point our lives get a bit easier.

Do you have any response to my disagreement with your take on Archer?

Edit: 

5 minutes ago, Ookla the Paragrapher said:

Noo don't talk like that, you're very scary! <3

I think I've decided that in an e!you world I would have been the D3 misexe. Then Kas gets NKed and you really have total thread control.

Edited December 2, 2022 by Araris Valerian

[Archer]

On the off chance I die tonight, I'd like to retract my positive read of Turtle for suggesting that the protection blade protect Kas the Night he was killed. I'd forgotten that with the limited Stormlight mechanic, the odds were good that the protector couldn't use their Blade, making it a good opportunity to kill a likely protection target in other cycles. There's up to two protection blades in circulation, but they'd both have this problem. 

Also, a v!JNV flip leads to e!TUN and an e!JNV flip leads to e!Turtle 

[Ashbringer]

4 hours until rollover!

[The Unknown Ajah]

13 hours ago, Araris Valerian said:

Do you have any response to my disagreement with your take on Archer?

I have my reasons. Will elaborate during the day.

[Ashbringer]

Time! Rollover after I finish my laundry shortly!

[Ashbringer]

LG91 Day 5: Death of Dali and The Daughter

The Tukari had grown bold as of late. Earthen Truth was on a level of lockdown, with the wandering about at night closely monitored. Dali-son-Nar had been waiting for a moment he could reveal what he knew, but first he had to sleep as most men did, and couldn't exactly do that out in the streets. He opened the door, and the neighboring houses heard a shout, and nothing more.

Izzy-daughter-Ammi had been waiting for the moment to reveal herself too. The lines of Connection she saw... they'd shifted in interesting patterns, concentrated in the folk who gathered in the square. Even as the people died, the Honorblades remained. Stone Shamanism had guided her and her fellows long, and it did not fail her. But even with one of the blades at her side, she couldn't access its abilities within, and despite her other guards against attack Progression was out of her reach. Which left her defenseless when someone came attacking with a Shardblade or Honorblade of their own.

And the town of Earthen Truth awoke to the deaths of Dali-son-Nar and the Daughter of Shinovar.

 

The Unknown Novel / Ookla the Unknown was killed! They were a member of the Shin High Council!

Alvron was killed! They were the Stone Shaman and the Bearer of Kalak's Honorblade!

Kalak's Honorblade is available to be claimed by Alvron's killer! If it remains unclaimed, it will be redistributed at the end of the Day Turn.

 

The turn will end on Sunday, December 4th at 11:00 PM PST.

 

Player List:

Spoiler

1. @ookla the POKE VOTE / Turtle- Evelt-son-Urtal
2. @Araris Valerian - Hadrian-son-Penrod
3. Ookla the Unknown / The Unknown Novel - Dali-son-Nar - Shin High Council
4. The Wandering Wizard - Tweedle-son-son-Dumb - Shin High Council
5. Ookla the Tall / Matrim's Dice - Dazi-son-ron - Shin High Council
6. @JNV - Jen-child-Verin
7. Ookla the Perpetual / The Bookwyrm - Rizam-son-Azram - Shin High Council
8. @Shining Silhouette - Cheshire-son-Cat
9. @Ookla the Forgotten / xinoehp512 - Jet-son-Blanc
10. Kasimir - Kvaseth-son-Wysan - Shin High Council
11. @InfiniteInsanity
12. @Chantara
13. _Stick_ - Tukari Invader, Bearer of Shalash's Honorblade
14. Cash67 - Egg-son-Chicken - Shin High Council, Bearer of Battar's Honorblade
15. Illwei - Shin High Council, Bearer of Paliah's Honorblade
16. @Archer - Tweedle-son-Dee
17. Alvron - Izzy-daughter-Ammi - Stone Shaman, Bearer of Kalak's Honorblade
18. @Tani - Daalna
19. @Elkanah - Sun-son-son-Tsu
20. Ookla the Omnicient / Szeth_Pancakes - Shin High Council

 

[Archer]

dangit

I don't like this. Why wasn't Araris the NK target - Alv isn't a control kill? Did they guess his role? Was Stick calling the shots previously? If e!JNV is afraid of being exed, they at least kill me - unless they're afraid of optics? I don't like that JNV is the obvious exe candidate today now. 

It's exlo if there's 4 elims left. Unfortunately, Alv was a free square we no longer get. But I trust Chan the killer. They're probably also the source of the PM's unfortunately, meaning there's only one clear to be made from those actions. (You can't kill N7 anyway, no harm claiming).

Then let's tentatively continue to trust me, Araris, and Silh for boldly going after Stick. Assuming no overlap, that reduces our PoE to 6. So we need non e-e pairs and a likely conspiracy.

I just realized this means Stick was bussed. By whom, and when should be looked into. 

Also should check if Alv had some weird votes/notes that came from meta knowledge we can glean. 

We know of JNV-Kas and Alv-Kas, who was in the third PM?

Did Alv confiscate that blade from someone? 

Has no one succeeded in catching elims or clearing people of having done the NK with the other blades? 

Results here aside, I was looking at JNV, Turtle, but I have no clue who the extra elim(s) would be. That's concerning.

EDIT: DO NOT CLAIM, CHAN. I forgot NKing you gives the elims an extra kill

Also, I'm back to thinking it's JNV. The Day Stick died, he built on a villager vote, which is more plausible than an all elim CW. Bonus elim is Elk. Maybe Chantara but I can't tell if it's distancing or trolling - but it indicates the bus point. I'll walk through this in more detail in the morning. Notable that Turtle is absent, but they'd have been counting on them to close the gap and so CW is reasonable strategy 

Edited December 3, 2022 by Ookla the Paragrapher

[Araris Valerian]

7 hours ago, Ookla the Paragrapher said:

Results here aside, I was looking at JNV, Turtle, but I have no clue who the extra elim(s) would be. That's concerning.

I mean, that’s not a bad place to start though. Tani, Insanity, and Chantara could be on pretty much any team I think.

Edit: @Ookla the Paragrapher, you said that e!JNV would imply v!TUN. What was the reasoning for that, and is the reverse implication true?

Edited December 3, 2022 by Araris Valerian

[Archer]

JNV, but I'm not certain about that vote in light of the e!Silh possibility and the allure of a Turtle exe. I'll start with colored vote counts. 

Day One

Quote

• The Wandering Wizard (5): xinoeph512 / Ookla the Forgotten, _Stick_, Elkanah, Tani, Szeth_Pancakes / Ookla the Omniscient
• The Bookwyrm / Ookla the Perpetual (4): The Wandering Wizard, JNV, Araris Valerian, Alvron
• Szeth Pancakes /Ookla the Omniscient (3): The Unknown Novel, Archer, Matrim's Dice
• Matrim’s Dice (2): InfiniteInsanity, Chantara
• Alvron (2): Illwei, Cash67
• Kasimir (1): Kasimir

We now know that none of the wagons that stuck were elims, so I consider final positioning fairly NAI. I'll note though that the first three votes were Stick by Kas, Mat by Silh, Mat by Turtle. It soon became a 1:1:1:2, at which point Turtle backed off of what could be viewed as an early defense of Stick. (Turtle never bothered to revote, which fits our inactive elims narrative. Note that Tani specifically wanted to look at non-voters recently, which puts is a weird approach that implicates Turtle, so I'm thinking not e-e there.)

Day Two

Quote

• The Bookwyrm / Ookla the Perpetual (5): Turtle / Ookla the POKE VOTE, Araris Valerian, Matrim's Dice, JNV, Cash67
• Szeth_Pancakes / Ookla the Omnicient (2): The Unknown Novel, _Stick_
• Elkanah (2): The Bookwyrm / Ookla the Perpetual, xinoehp512 / Ookla the Forgotten
• xinoehp512 / Ookla the Forgotten (2): Kasimir, InfiniteInsanity
• Araris Valerian (1): Archer

Stick starts with a detailed argument just against Elk, which implies e-v to me. Moving to Szeth mid round could be a defense of Xino, who had one vote at the time in a near tie with four other people, but I think it'd make more sense to have stuck to the strong Elk read there instead of switching to Szeth, who had two votes: TUN's and Szeth's. It looks more to me like they didn't feel much pressure. The Bookwyrm took off and it was a done deal.   

Day Three

Quote

• _Stick_ (7): Araris Valerian, Shining Silhouette / Ookla the Debonair, Kasimir, Chantara, Archer / Ookla the Paragrapher, Alvron, Elkanah
• Archer / Ookla the Paragrapher (2): The Unknown Novel / Ookla the Unknown, JNV
• Chantara (1): _Stick_
• Elkanah (1): Cash67

Kas votes Xino, Szeth naked votes the same, then replies to Kas' challenge with: "Wdym  Like I said I found their inconsistent stance on Bookwyrm odd. I’m also willing to go Elk or Araris." This looks like they got caught out sheeping, not that they were distancing/trying to scare Kas off by +1ing him suspiciously. 

Araris and I lay down the hammer and who crawls out of the woodwork: "smh i just realized i’m not following this, so here i am" -Turtle! 

Silh then drops a reads list with Turtle and Stick as villagers and JNV as null, with what I think are the favored elim wagons, Elk and Xino, as the most scummy reads. They also say "As for voting, I think I'll vote tomorrow. Let my thoughts settle and whatnot," which I can interpret as a desire not to commit to any wagon until they know if Stick is in serious danger or not/where Kas will land. 

Silh also says "I will not vote Kas, Turtle, or Archer. Everyone else but Stick I don't really care. As for Stick is there a tactical reason for E!Stick to constantly defend Bookwyrm D1 and N1? It's a strong enough move it would have to be intentional." This is a hard defense of them that's really a hard defense. 

This is weird! Because Silh then votes Stick, and as Kas noted, exits the thread. That's villagery.

Kas drops this response "I am actually considering if I want to go off Stick and onto the Xino or Archer trains so I would advise not sheeping me." E!Silh probably would have clocked that. JNV definitely did and adds to TUN's vote on me. TUN was a villager who was fairly committed to voting me, so with Stick's self pres, this makes a tie at the cost of only one suspicious vote (JNV's). 

Araris, to answer your question, one of JNV or TUN had to be the supporting elim vote unless they decided to bus early. So v!one meant e!the other, but it could have been e-v, not e-e. Which it was. 

*In the midst of this, Insanity drops a post with no vote attached, which is bad form when your elim teammate is under pressure, so I'm lightly clearing them for it. 

Stick names 'Kas Turtle Shining' as their three village reads. 

Elk makes a tie. Kas says are you sure you want to make a tie? Elk says eh, ok, I'll kill Stick. I was e!reading this this morning but I've since realized an elim would know the optics going in and be committed to the tie or bus Stick from the get go. 

Stick votes Chantara with zero reasoning, so I think they were probably trolling. Could be distancing though. Chantara was on for the EoD so I wonder if they had given up by then, but did a scripted interaction to make the most of it.  

 

TL;DR I'm split between Silh seeing 3:1:1:1 with four hours to go before rollover and deciding to pull the trigger on a bus then making sense, or e!JNV coming into more favorable circumstances and trying to bridge the gap to save Stick. I don't think both are likely, unless e!JNV just wanted to diversify where the elim votes landed. Turtle was absent during crunch time. 

Day Four 

Quote

• Cash67 (6): Turtle / Ookla the POKE VOTE, Araris Valerian, Shining Silhouette / Ookla the Debonair, InfiniteInsanity, Archer / Ookla the Paragrapher, Tani / Ookla the Implosion
• xinoehp512 / Ookla the Forgotten (1): Cash67

We were lurching towards JNV. Turtle seized on my Cash suspicion to start the Cash wagon. Araris lightly rejects it, Tani supports it, Araris switches. Cue avalanche. 

I liked the apologetic nature of Tani's retrospective vote explanation and the strategic goal. I'm lightly village reading them for that. 

 

*Somewhere this cycle I think, Turtle posted a colored VC that greened TUN but kept Stick-killer!Araris in black. That's weird. 

Day Five

To recap e!JNV helps e!Stick tie the D3 VC. E!Turtle helps e!JNV escape pressure the next Day. 

OR. E!Silh buses Stick. Reevaluation of other reads necessary. Absent from D3 voting!Turtle also fits onto this team. 

OR. E!all of them, and they were splitting their votes/bets D3. 

Either way, I'm hard clearing e!Elk. They were Stick's preferred exe. Xino was the subject of Stick's bad vote, so I'm also village reading them. 

Araris gets a pass for killing Stick. So should I.

I'm lightly village reading Tani and Insanity. Leaving Chantara to round out an elim team in place of Silh. 

Kill Analysis

E! me or Araris kill each other this cycle to gain thread control. E!JNV kills me, unless they were afraid of the optics, or knew about Shaman!Alv from their PM/good reading and wanted to kill them before they claimed and got protection. I'd pretty much outed that I wasn't the Shaman, so it makes sense to pass on me if you're gunning for it.

[Araris Valerian]

I think I've convinced myself of e!Turtle pretty strongly. I think that explains the willingness for an early Illwei kill (Illwei is more familiar with Turtle's playstyle) and fits with Turtle making comments about an inactive elim team. 

[Quivil]

I've ranked my reads now, if you want to see them

Also, I'm going to throw a vote on JNV, partially because they've mostly posted about two semi-short posts per cycle, and partially because it felt like they were trying to defend Stick in Day 3.

On 11/28/2022 at 11:47 PM, JNV said:

Ive read through everything like twice and my head hurts and Ive kind of come to the conclusion Im not voting Stick today beyond some brief paranoia founded on weak assumptions it doesnt feel amazing and the reasoning is just a bit fragile and it doesnt feel good and yeah honestly like Id like them dead at some point just cause paranoia alarm bells all that but I dont really know it feels wobbly I think Im just not that suspicious of them for whatever reason like I kinda want to be at this point itd be easier but no theres just confusion 

[Elkanah]

Spoiler

56 minutes ago, Ookla the Paragrapher said:

JNV, but I'm not certain about that vote in light of the e!Silh possibility and the allure of a Turtle exe. I'll start with colored vote counts. 

Day One

We now know that none of the wagons that stuck were elims, so I consider final positioning fairly NAI. I'll note though that the first three votes were Stick by Kas, Mat by Silh, Mat by Turtle. It soon became a 1:1:1:2, at which point Turtle backed off of what could be viewed as an early defense of Stick. (Turtle never bothered to revote, which fits our inactive elims narrative. Note that Tani specifically wanted to look at non-voters recently, which puts is a weird approach that implicates Turtle, so I'm thinking not e-e there.)

Day Two

Stick starts with a detailed argument just against Elk, which implies e-v to me. Moving to Szeth mid round could be a defense of Xino, who had one vote at the time in a near tie with four other people, but I think it'd make more sense to have stuck to the strong Elk read there instead of switching to Szeth, who had two votes: TUN's and Szeth's. It looks more to me like they didn't feel much pressure. The Bookwyrm took off and it was a done deal.   

Day Three

Kas votes Xino, Szeth naked votes the same, then replies to Kas' challenge with: "Wdym  Like I said I found their inconsistent stance on Bookwyrm odd. I’m also willing to go Elk or Araris." This looks like they got caught out sheeping, not that they were distancing/trying to scare Kas off by +1ing him suspiciously. 

Araris and I lay down the hammer and who crawls out of the woodwork: "smh i just realized i’m not following this, so here i am" -Turtle! 

Silh then drops a reads list with Turtle and Stick as villagers and JNV as null, with what I think are the favored elim wagons, Elk and Xino, as the most scummy reads. They also say "As for voting, I think I'll vote tomorrow. Let my thoughts settle and whatnot," which I can interpret as a desire not to commit to any wagon until they know if Stick is in serious danger or not/where Kas will land. 

Silh also says "I will not vote Kas, Turtle, or Archer. Everyone else but Stick I don't really care. As for Stick is there a tactical reason for E!Stick to constantly defend Bookwyrm D1 and N1? It's a strong enough move it would have to be intentional." This is a hard defense of them that's really a hard defense. 

This is weird! Because Silh then votes Stick, and as Kas noted, exits the thread. That's villagery.

Kas drops this response "I am actually considering if I want to go off Stick and onto the Xino or Archer trains so I would advise not sheeping me." E!Silh probably would have clocked that. JNV definitely did and adds to TUN's vote on me. TUN was a villager who was fairly committed to voting me, so with Stick's self pres, this makes a tie at the cost of only one suspicious vote (JNV's). 

Araris, to answer your question, one of JNV or TUN had to be the supporting elim vote unless they decided to bus early. So v!one meant e!the other, but it could have been e-v, not e-e. Which it was. 

*In the midst of this, Insanity drops a post with no vote attached, which is bad form when your elim teammate is under pressure, so I'm lightly clearing them for it. 

Stick names 'Kas Turtle Shining' as their three village reads. 

Elk makes a tie. Kas says are you sure you want to make a tie? Elk says eh, ok, I'll kill Stick. I was e!reading this this morning but I've since realized an elim would know the optics going in and be committed to the tie or bus Stick from the get go. 

Stick votes Chantara with zero reasoning, so I think they were probably trolling. Could be distancing though. Chantara was on for the EoD so I wonder if they had given up by then, but did a scripted interaction to make the most of it.  

 

TL;DR I'm split between Silh seeing 3:1:1:1 with four hours to go before rollover and deciding to pull the trigger on a bus then making sense, or e!JNV coming into more favorable circumstances and trying to bridge the gap to save Stick. I don't think both are likely, unless e!JNV just wanted to diversify where the elim votes landed. Turtle was absent during crunch time. 

Day Four 

We were lurching towards JNV. Turtle seized on my Cash suspicion to start the Cash wagon. Araris lightly rejects it, Tani supports it, Araris switches. Cue avalanche. 

I liked the apologetic nature of Tani's retrospective vote explanation and the strategic goal. I'm lightly village reading them for that. 

 

*Somewhere this cycle I think, Turtle posted a colored VC that greened TUN but kept Stick-killer!Araris in black. That's weird. 

Day Five

To recap e!JNV helps e!Stick tie the D3 VC. E!Turtle helps e!JNV escape pressure the next Day. 

OR. E!Silh buses Stick. Reevaluation of other reads necessary. Absent from D3 voting!Turtle also fits onto this team. 

OR. E!all of them, and they were splitting their votes/bets D3. 

Either way, I'm hard clearing e!Elk. They were Stick's preferred exe. Xino was the subject of Stick's bad vote, so I'm also village reading them. 

Araris gets a pass for killing Stick. So should I.

I'm lightly village reading Tani and Insanity. Leaving Chantara to round out an elim team in place of Silh. 

Kill Analysis

E! me or Araris kill each other this cycle to gain thread control. E!JNV kills me, unless they were afraid of the optics, or knew about Shaman!Alv from their PM/good reading and wanted to kill them before they claimed and got protection. I'd pretty much outed that I wasn't the Shaman, so it makes sense to pass on me if you're gunning for it.

 

Thank you for this analysis Archer! I've read it several times and it's so much easier than going and reading everything over again. There are a couple items I disagree with you on, but I believe you've read the whole game more times than I have. I need to do a deeper reread, but here are my thoughts first. 

1 hour ago, Ookla the Paragrapher said:

Kas votes Xino, Szeth naked votes the same, then replies to Kas' challenge with: "Wdym  Like I said I found their inconsistent stance on Bookwyrm odd. I’m also willing to go Elk or Araris." This looks like they got caught out sheeping, not that they were distancing/trying to scare Kas off by +1ing him suspiciously. 

Bold mine. I spent too long looking for this. I think you meant Stick, which I agree makes Xino look like a preferred mislynch. I believe the elims also thought I would be an easy target due to my courtship with chaos. 

1 hour ago, Ookla the Paragrapher said:

Silh then drops a reads list with Turtle and Stick as villagers and JNV as null, with what I think are the favored elim wagons, Elk and Xino, as the most scummy reads. They also say "As for voting, I think I'll vote tomorrow. Let my thoughts settle and whatnot," which I can interpret as a desire not to commit to any wagon until they know if Stick is in serious danger or not/where Kas will land. 

Silh also says "I will not vote Kas, Turtle, or Archer. Everyone else but Stick I don't really care. As for Stick is there a tactical reason for E!Stick to constantly defend Bookwyrm D1 and N1? It's a strong enough move it would have to be intentional." This is a hard defense of them that's really a hard defense. 

I didn't agree with your day read of day one Turtle. Poke votes are mostly NAI. Here though, you have a point. Shining ties to both Turtle and Stick and attempts to drive the two mislynches that Stick wanted.

1 hour ago, Ookla the Paragrapher said:

Stick names 'Kas Turtle Shining' as their three village reads. 

This is interesting in that If I was an elim I would have listed two villagers with an elim, but that leads to a spiral so I'll stop there. I can leave this one at I believe at least one of Turtle or Shining Silhouette is an elim.

1 hour ago, Ookla the Paragrapher said:

Elk makes a tie. Kas says are you sure you want to make a tie? Elk says eh, ok, I'll kill Stick. I was e!reading this this morning but I've since realized an elim would know the optics going in and be committed to the tie or bus Stick from the get go. 

Well... I almost allowed a tie. I decided to vote for the person I thought was more suspicious (Xinoehp), assuming another person I was suspicious of (Stick) would get lynched. Kas pointed out that if I didn't seal the deal, it would be easy for someone else (Alvron) to make a tie. I decided to prevent the tie. 

1 hour ago, Ookla the Paragrapher said:

To recap e!JNV helps e!Stick tie the D3 VC. E!Turtle helps e!JNV escape pressure the next Day. 

OR. E!Silh buses Stick. Reevaluation of other reads necessary. Absent from D3 voting!Turtle also fits onto this team. 

OR. E!all of them, and they were splitting their votes/bets D3. 

Either way, I'm hard clearing e!Elk. They were Stick's preferred exe. Xino was the subject of Stick's bad vote, so I'm also village reading them. 

Araris gets a pass for killing Stick. So should I.

I'm lightly village reading Tani and Insanity. Leaving Chantara to round out an elim team in place of Silh. 

These are good points and I'm guessing it's E!all of them. I am more suspicious of Shining Silhouette than Chantara at this point because of their support of and from Stick as well as their reads list.

 

Shortened Reads List:

Elkanah- I know my alignment.

Archer- A mix of effort clearing, gut, and that Archer was the main other train against Stick

Araris- There was no need to bus Stick that hard as an elim

Xinoehp- Was targeted by a known elim

Tani- Reads village to me.

Chantara- Hasn't posted much. The Stick vote was too much of an IKYK to read into

Infinite Insanity- I don't remember most of their posts and they are here mostly for the low activity elim assumption. This has a strong possibility of changing on a reread

JNV- For Reasons above

Turtle- Makes sense to kill Illwei. Ties to Stick. 

Shining Silhouette- Targets favored elim mislynches. Ties to Stick. 

 

 

I need to reread everything, but for now I will vote Turtle. I am considering revealing my blade and actions, but I'm going to chew on that a little longer. 

[Archer]

3 hours ago, Araris Valerian said:

I think I've convinced myself of e!Turtle pretty strongly. I think that explains the willingness for an early Illwei kill (Illwei is more familiar with Turtle's playstyle) and fits with Turtle making comments about an inactive elim team. 

I have a mental block when it comes to voting Turtle because I don't want to not hit the final CW from D3 after 2/3 already died. But knowing that the elims have to have bussed D3 makes me okay with exploring Silh (potential busser) and Turtle (non voter). I'm genuinely torn between the three. 

What's your elim team theory right now? 

2 hours ago, Ookla the Implosion said:

I've ranked my reads now, if you want to see them

I want to see them! 

2 hours ago, Elkanah said:

  Reveal hidden contents

 

Bold mine. I spent too long looking for this. I think you meant Stick, which I agree makes Xino look like a preferred mislynch. I believe the elims also thought I would be an easy target due to my courtship with chaos. 

I didn't agree with your day read of day one Turtle.

This is interesting in that If I was an elim I would have listed two villagers with an elim, but that leads to a spiral so I'll stop there. I can leave this one at I believe at least one of Turtle or Shining Silhouette is an elim.

Well... I almost allowed a tie. I decided to vote for the person I thought was more suspicious (Xinoehp), assuming another person I was suspicious of (Stick) would get lynched. Kas pointed out that if I didn't seal the deal, it would be easy for someone else (Alvron) to make a tie. I decided to prevent the tie. 

I need to reread everything, but for now I will vote Turtle. I am considering revealing my blade and actions, but I'm going to chew on that a little longer. 

Yes, I meant Stick.

Turtle's D1 vote isn't conclusive on it's own, I'll give you that. 

E!me would do the same, especially if my flip was likely. My counter argument would be that it's a restating of their previously made reads, so perhaps they wanted to be consistent. 

My bad, you're right that your vote was on Xino. 

If you, not our Coinshot, made the PMs, I want to clear you for that. If you know someone didn't submit the NK, that's somewhat useful, but we don't have a cohesive enough picture of action submissions to make a conclusion about it. 

 

My hesitation with Shining is that TUN and Kas both entertained e!Xino and e!Elk theories. So it's not necessarily elim indicative. I also can't wrap my head around them voting for Stick (bussing), then e!JNV not bussing.  

[Araris Valerian]

4 hours ago, Ookla the Paragrapher said:

What's your elim team theory right now? 

Turtle/JNV/Chantara/Shining, in decreasing order of suspicion.

4 hours ago, Ookla the Paragrapher said:

My hesitation with Shining is that TUN and Kas both entertained e!Xino and e!Elk theories. So it's not necessarily elim indicative. I also can't wrap my head around them voting for Stick (bussing), then e!JNV not bussing.  

I mean, we need to consider that along with inactivity, the elim team has had poor internal communication. That sort of thing could reasonably explain e!Shining's interactions with Stick. And if all the elims jumped on Stick, that would just make them easy to catch for all being in the same place.

I'll also note that we don't necessarily lose if we miss this exe. Either a blocked NK or a successful hit with Chana would leave the village up by one going into the next day.

[Quivil]

5 hours ago, Ookla the Paragrapher said:

I want to see them! 

Cool. Hopefully they're not all as inaccurate as my Cash read.

Village: Archer, Araris

Null +: Inity

Null: Turtle, Xino, Chantara, Elk

Null -: Silho

Elim: JNV