Jump to content

Recommended Posts

5 minutes ago, Kasimir said:

Factually wrong. He self-presed slightly under two hours to rollover, as can be seen here:

oh huh. yeah. For some reason I was looking the timestamp from this post. I have way too many tabs open >>

The only way I can explain it then it e!xino's team possessing vote manip, or insanity being paired with TUN and willing to move if things got too risky.

15 minutes ago, Kasimir said:

If you pay attention to his votecount, it includes his vote.

I- yes >>

12 minutes ago, Kasimir said:

Alv is one of them. My sense from Alv's willingness to solve when working with me is that I'm willing to cut him some slack for the moment, knowing how his playstyle is and his thoughts feel to me as though he's more Village. But that's where I am on Alv at the moment

Okay, fair enough. To the thread Alv hasn't said much of substance, so while I guess I understand why you're willing to table him for now I don't understand why everyone else is not questioning anything either.

16 minutes ago, Kasimir said:

Question for you, Stick. Do you think V!Chana is likely at all?

I would say giving it to the elims is slightly OP no?? Cuz a kill in the hands of a villager can also directly further the elim wincon bc friendly fire happens. I would guess that Chana started in the hands of a villager. Dunno if the shaman claimed it at some point and re-allocated it.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

3 minutes ago, _Stick_ said:

The only way I can explain it then it e!xino's team possessing vote manip, or insanity being paired with TUN and willing to move if things got too risky.

Why Insanity paired with TUN specifically?

Possible. But I do also kind of wonder about the Cash vote in light of that, which is one reason why I am further stuck with regard to the E!Xino issue. Bah, Xino, TUN.

4 minutes ago, _Stick_ said:

Okay, fair enough. To the thread Alv hasn't said much of substance, so while I guess I understand why you're willing to table him for now I don't understand why everyone else is not questioning anything either.

That is fair, yeah. 

4 minutes ago, _Stick_ said:

I would say giving it to the elims is slightly OP no?? Cuz a kill in the hands of a villager can also directly further the elim wincon bc friendly fire happens. I would guess that Chana started in the hands of a villager. Dunno if the shaman claimed it at some point and re-allocated it.

My thought: Stormlight limitations, we know Pailah started out in Village hands, and also, Beagle. Would Kalak and Jez starting out in Village hands, along with Pailah and the other progression Blade make sense with E!Chana?

Not saying it's impossible, but it's something I want a sense of.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

10 minutes ago, Kasimir said:

Why Insanity paired with TUN specifically?

Possible. But I do also kind of wonder about the Cash vote in light of that, which is one reason why I am further stuck with regard to the E!Xino issue. Bah, Xino, TUN.

I meant to say xino, not TUN. However I've gone and looked at insanity's post and I disagree with my point there because insanity specifically said:

Quote

I agree with Kas on their POV on Xino. I think that all the jumping around with votes they did is suspicious. I don't think it will change because that's what I'm set on right now and I'm going to have a sugar crash any minute now. 

emphasis mine

I'll say xino/insanity probably not e/e based on this. 

What do you mean about the Cash vote? It was cast when xino had one vote only.

18 minutes ago, Kasimir said:

My thought: Stormlight limitations, we know Pailah started out in Village hands, and also, Beagle. Would Kalak and Jez starting out in Village hands, along with Pailah and the other progression Blade make sense with E!Chana?

Not saying it's impossible, but it's something I want a sense of.

Right, fair about the stormlight limitations. So you're suggesting all vote manip + all protection with the village equals extra elim kill? I could see that, yeah. Especially because vote manip with the elims is a lot more powerful than vote manip with the village. But I don't know how likely this distro is. It's probably partially dependent on the actual players that make up the elim team and village respectively as well.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

9 minutes ago, _Stick_ said:

I'll say xino/insanity probably not e/e based on this. 

I'd agree with this assessment, yeah.

9 minutes ago, _Stick_ said:

What do you mean about the Cash vote? It was cast when xino had one vote only.

Similar to your thoughts on Araris, mostly. I feel that in an E!Xino world, once Xino got off to two votes, there was no way Cash was moving anyway. The Bookwyrm train had to be anchored.

IDK. I do find Xino's vote weird, Elk's refusal to go Bookwyrm sus (but then why make the obvious lynchbait your sus when Evil, c'mon) but kind of prefer to vote the guy who is on both my potential Evil teams at this juncture.

I have just enough E!Stick credences that I think you could make a coherent team, but I kinda buy the <Archer-TUN-Xino-Cash-Turtle???> Maybe insert Araris somewhere? team a bit more. If I were really feeling bold I might wanna vote Archer actually but IDK. Does E!Archer actually seriously derp and suggest Szeth was NKed? That doesn't feel like a natural mistake or slip-up, even in typing, for E!Archer. And yet...

9 minutes ago, _Stick_ said:

Right, fair about the stormlight limitations. So you're suggesting all vote manip + all protection with the village equals extra elim kill? I could see that, yeah. Especially because vote manip with the elims is a lot more powerful than vote manip with the village. But I don't know how likely this distro is. It's probably partially dependent on the actual players that make up the elim team and village respectively as well.

True. I suppose the fact the Blades move around do shake things up a bit, thanks to the Shaman.

Edited to add: Jez is an action scanner, Kalak is a roleblocker. They have those aspects too, which I feel could even things out a bit, maybe. IDK.

Edited by Kasimir
Link to comment
Share on other sites

K, so sorry I’ve only been lurking for the most part. But lots of stuff keeps coming up mentally and with my dad’s work that rarely leaves much time where I have enough time to actually stop, think, and type out a long response or anything really. Whenever I start I have to stop and go help with something.

Also sorry I wrote this out on a google doc and then transferred it so there’s quote stuff that isn’t in quote boxes.

“I also don't believe so many trains were pure. Functionally, I expect at least two Elims on both the Wiz and Bookwyrm trains in total.”

Mat (2): Insanity, Chantara

Wiz (5): Xino, Tani, Szeth, Elk, Stick

Bookwyrm (4): JNV, Wiz, Araris, Alv

Alv (2): Illwei, Cash

Szeth (3): TUN, Archer, Mat

Kas (1): Kas

No Vote (3): Turtle, Bookwyrm, Silho

Okay so if that’s true then four of the following would be elim: Xino, Tani, Elk, Stick, JNV, Araris, Alv.

Then the people I’ve seen the most about for people thinking they are elim are Xino, Elk, Stick, JNV, and Araris.

Then D2

Elk (3): Bookwyrm, Szeth, Xino

Szeth (2): TUN, Stick

Bookwyrm (4): Araris, JNV, Turtle, Cash

Xino (2): Kas, Insanity

Araris (2): Mat, Archer

No Vote (): Silho, Chantara, Elk, Tani

Then Kas said that Elk seems too relaxed to be elim. 

So that would leave Xino, Stick, JNV, and Araris. Which would make two in each train.

I have more but lunch is over. I’ll post this for now and either add on or post something else. And it formatted weirdly.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

3 hours ago, Kasimir said:

Anyone I'm forgetting? You're probably Evil then.

Understandable. Have a nice day.

Ok, so Kas and my own brain while reading has talked me into Archer. I think we need to put more pressure outside of where there's already pressure, and Archer (I think) has received none.

His Szeth case could have been building towards a mix in the near future, since he likely could have guessed (and probably guessed correctiy) that he would have my vote. His 'Szeth is the Nightkill' slip/mistake wouldn’t be hard for e!Archer to make accidentally, and I can't remember if it was him or Araris that said they sometimes slip things like that on purpose.

So that's where my vote will go for now. Might change my mind, but I don't know how much I'll be on today.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

I’m going to do this first post as a bit of a stream of consciousness while rereading D1, then maybe follow up with a consolidated reads list.

I give light village credence to TUN for voting me; it was like a poke vote but I feel like I am potentially a dangerous player to rouse. He also is unwilling to follow Mat onto Kas, which is a potential elim play for removing a dangerous player. Unless Kas is elim of course.

Note: JNV starts the Bookwyrm voting

Turtle is waffly on voting for Kas

Elkanah is waffly on Bookwyrm; could be teamed with JNV but unwilling to double-up

JNV goes after Turtle a bit but doesn’t vote.

Elkanah continues to sus Book without voting.

Xino breaks the tie between TUN and Bookwyrm while also ignoring Mat entirely. Could be elim with JNV and Elk.

Nevermind, Elk switches to Bookwyrm shortly after. So Xino/Elk is most likely not e/e.

Xino starts the Wizard train, with the goal of having more than 3 trains.

Elkanah follows Xino again. That’s weird. Maybe they are e/e?

This is also around when the tie discussion starts.

Archer flags Xino, Turtle, TUN, Elk, and Wizard, doesn’t vote for any of them.

Illwei is suspicious of Stick. Fits with e!Stick, given Illwei getting NKed

Illwei votes Alvron and is also suspicious of Shining

Stick places the second vote on Szeth

Alright, based solely on D1 before weird tie things, my elim team would be <Elk, Xino, JNV, Stick, ?>

Edit 1: It’s worth noting that Turtle’s post in the night included all 3 trains being village as the first possibility.

Edited by Araris Valerian
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Quote

First I think E!Archer points to E!Turtle because of how Archer essentially shut down the discussion regarding Turtle early on in Day 1.

Actually, I let it play out. I was going to comment immediately after they came under suspicion, but I figured that it was better to let the thread think it through, even if I thought I knew the right answer (it's NAI). 

Quote

Also sorry I wrote this out on a google doc 

(Insanity) E!me would be terrified of people thinking I wrote this in the elim doc. 

Quote

The one point I do appreciate and I think Araris raised it, or I'm just tripping by this stage, is that it's weird for E!Archer to offer to vote Xino with Araris and then sort of refuse to. We now know all three lead trains were Village: E!Archer has no reason not to vote on V!Xino. But then offering to vote E!Xino is equally weird: unless, I suppose, Archer makes the statement in response to Araris, and then Araris reads it as an offer but it's not intended as an offer. And then Archer declines to vote by taking the read back. Ok, I could sort of see that, yeah.

(Kas) I agree it looks like a botched distancing attempt, but I feel like e!me would have voted Xino then moved on later. Otherwise it's sloppy play. So is camping on Wiz. I completely understand that I've made some obvious elim tells this game, but it's unrelated to alignment. 

Quote

Ok, so Kas and my own brain while reading has talked me into Archer. I think we need to put more pressure outside of where there's already pressure, and Archer (I think) has received none.

(TUN) Or. The elim team started feeling guilty about waiting and decided to throw their votes out now. So an Archer push it is! 

My argument about Szeth was Mat, Kas, and I leaned village on them after the Night discussion, and given the thread state, that was enough to keep them safe. We were past exing people for liking ties, I thought. 

1 minute ago, Ookla the Debonair said:

That is interesting. Usually when I do those posts I put least likely possibility last, but it's such a minute detail it's probably nai

>. >. Why do all your posts read like blatant protection of teammates 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Just now, Ookla the Paragrapher said:

>. >. Why do all your posts read like blatant protection of teammates 

I think you and I have different perspectives on this game—when you say a post "reads" like something I usually don't agree.

I just think it's interesting cause I'm not actually protecting any teammates :P.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

I found it interesting that Stick voted Elk early D2. Early votes are weird because they can disappear and be just for distancing or they can snowball if other people jump on them.

I’m also considering Archer as an elim right now, but he doesn’t really fit with Elk either, given his stance on voting out Elk before Szeth.

That’s probably fine, since I bet someone inactive is elim, and I was trying to focus on people who actually have done stuff.

Actually Archer and JNV probably don’t make a ton of sense either from the VC on day 1.

I’m still pretty happy with my Stick vote, especially after noticing that Illwei mentioned suspicion of her D1, so it would take a pretty convincing argument to get me to switch. I’m also going to be on a bus soon until late, so depending on how tired I am I might have 0-1 more posts this turn.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

12 minutes ago, Araris Valerian said:

I’m also going to be on a bus soo

are you bussing stick

anyways put this in the MR but I’ll put it here as well, it will be a while before I can really work on se bc school was like ‘Hey! Ya like jazz? No? How bout 2 papers and a healthy portion of essays, plus 3 tests? This week? That sound good?”

edit: first three trains being v is just like, how I do wagonomics. check out help test 3 for that ig

edit #2: one way to get around lines going through nodes is to just make the nodes into a circle. very nice looking too.

Edited by ookla the POKE VOTE
Link to comment
Share on other sites

1 hour ago, Araris Valerian said:

Elkanah is waffly on Bookwyrm; could be teamed with JNV but unwilling to double-up

I feel like my question here is: why do you accord Archer more grace than Elk? Why do you say it is unreasonable for E!Archer to put E!Xino forward, or indeed, to refuse to vote V!Xino with you, but not also take as fundamentally credible the idea that E!Elk has no reason to resist Bookwyrm, and indeed, could've just done so earlier? It feels in this case you are having to go out of your way to postulate E!JNV just as a function of the original Elk premise. I don't understand the double standards implicit here.

1 hour ago, Araris Valerian said:

I give light village credence to TUN for voting me; it was like a poke vote but I feel like I am potentially a dangerous player to rouse. He also is unwilling to follow Mat onto Kas, which is a potential elim play for removing a dangerous player. Unless Kas is elim of course.

Hello there!

1 hour ago, Araris Valerian said:

Illwei is suspicious of Stick. Fits with e!Stick, given Illwei getting NKed

How does this interface so far with your initial thoughts that the Illwei NK reflected the kill MO of both Mat and TUN? Clearly not Mat, but TUN?

54 minutes ago, Ookla the Paragrapher said:

(Kas) I agree it looks like a botched distancing attempt, but I feel like e!me would have voted Xino then moved on later. Otherwise it's sloppy play. So is camping on Wiz. I completely understand that I've made some obvious elim tells this game, but it's unrelated to alignment. 

I don't disagree, which is why you are not my immediate target: TUN is. I will say TUN going onto you kind of feels like offering me a bait train, and I'm not really interested at this stage. That being said, I do think you are canny enough to metascrew and deliberately argue that E!you wouldn't do something that sloppy and then actually do it. I also think you have sufficient thread control to get away with it.

I'm wary about too many 'sloppy play' assumptions because we're both applying the most charitable standards to you and denying them to Xino and Bookwyrm. [Edited to add: Sorry, am tired, this should read Elk.] So we postulate you can't have just voted Xino and moved on later - but why would you anyway? You certainly didn't take it as a deal to be committed to with Araris. But of course, Xino is absolutely sloppy enough to make a vote off a bad votecount to tie things off at about thirty six hours into the cycle and then move on and swap to Wiz within the same hour?

Finally, the last time I said "Archer is more competent than to do this," it turned out that this led to a huge Orlok-fuelled tunnel on Aman and a lot of problems mid-LG84, so you'll excuse me if I'm hesitant to overlean on that assumption :P 

I think at some point in a IKYK, you just have to decide whether to check the obvious, or not to. I do think it's tempting to, and I think it has to be asked. You mentioned several times you are short on time, and I absolutely think that was as much a factor.

54 minutes ago, Ookla the Paragrapher said:

My argument about Szeth was Mat, Kas, and I leaned village on them after the Night discussion, and given the thread state, that was enough to keep them safe. We were past exing people for liking ties, I thought. 

On 11/27/2022 at 9:10 AM, Ookla the Paragrapher said:

I'm split between thinking that a village's first reaction should have been that any exing of them is bad and thinking that both alignments sometimes try to avoid pressure by using indirect defenses. I'm leaning towards suspecting e!Szeth for forgetting to consider that they might be a villager. 

Mat said nothing about Szeth N2, and Stick was very clearly pro-MLing Szeth. I'm not really sure where you think a clear message that Szeth was going to be kept safe comes from. I was the person specifically replying to you to say, yeah, no, actually I think Szeth is Village.

33 minutes ago, Araris Valerian said:

Actually Archer and JNV probably don’t make a ton of sense either from the VC on day 1.

So is JNV still on your postulated Elim team or not?

33 minutes ago, Araris Valerian said:

I’m still pretty happy with my Stick vote, especially after noticing that Illwei mentioned suspicion of her D1

Could you, in a single short paragraph, sum up what is behind your Stick vote besides 'could have NKed Illwei N1'?

This is actually pretty confusing because a lot of my reads are so different from Araris's I start to wonder if he's Evil (cf. agenda) but I'm also really strongly committed to V!Araris for now so ¯\_(ツ)_/¯ I'm keeping my vote where it is.

Edited by Kasimir
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Alright @Kasimir here you go!

So my current thoughts on the state of the thread are mainly OH CRAP I READ WRONG. I got Szeth wrong, and I am now terrified Division is in play and took out a villager. Shaman if they strike again and kill a second villager that we didn't think was an elim PLEASE let us know who they are. 

I am a little sus on either Elk or Xino. I'm slowly learning to pick up on voting patterns, and I do agree with the observation that has been made that says since Elk was safe in D2 and the two who were on Elk were eliminated and Village, he might be elim. Xino came on after everything was safe, so there's that to look at.

Beyond that, maybe look at Mat's Votes and suspicions and see if the Elims fear killed them? those are my two plans, so for now: Elk

Link to comment
Share on other sites

47 minutes ago, Cash67 said:

So my current thoughts on the state of the thread are mainly OH CRAP I READ WRONG. I got Szeth wrong, and I am now terrified Division is in play and took out a villager. Shaman if they strike again and kill a second villager that we didn't think was an elim PLEASE let us know who they are. 

The Shaman doesn't know who has Chanarach, and even if they did, claiming is a bad idea since Chana very unlikely to be an elim. And a non insignificant number of players thought Szeth was elim, so it's not even a weird kill. And two miskills isn't even that weird. Really don't see the logic behind this.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

2 hours ago, Ookla the Unknown said:

The Shaman doesn't know who has Chanarach, and even if they did, claiming is a bad idea since Chana very unlikely to be an elim. And a non insignificant number of players thought Szeth was elim, so it's not even a weird kill. And two miskills isn't even that weird. Really don't see the logic behind this.

Ohhh I thought shams got a list of who has what, but rn they only know where the Prog Ilum blade is since it’s been revealed. 
 

Yeah I’m just a little nervous Division is in play now

Link to comment
Share on other sites

5 hours ago, Cash67 said:

Alright @Kasimir here you go!

So my current thoughts on the state of the thread are mainly OH CRAP I READ WRONG. I got Szeth wrong, and I am now terrified Division is in play and took out a villager. Shaman if they strike again and kill a second villager that we didn't think was an elim PLEASE let us know who they are. 

I am a little sus on either Elk or Xino. I'm slowly learning to pick up on voting patterns, and I do agree with the observation that has been made that says since Elk was safe in D2 and the two who were on Elk were eliminated and Village, he might be elim. Xino came on after everything was safe, so there's that to look at.

Beyond that, maybe look at Mat's Votes and suspicions and see if the Elims fear killed them? those are my two plans, so for now: Elk

Two questions for you:

1. Your theory was that one of Szeth and Elk were Evil. If you were wrong about Szeth and indeed, wanted to flip Szeth first, then why are you confident enough to double down on Elk? 

2. Why are you so afraid of Division? 

TUN 

Under strong protest that I suspect the Archer/Araris bloc is Evil and won't hesitate to gun for them any longer because benefit of the doubt only goes so far if Stick flips Village. 

Stick 

EDITED TO ADD:

To be clear, if Stick flips Village, I'm done. That's two series of shoddy votes from Araris and I am going to listen to Shadow and gun for the obvious Evils. That means both Archer and Araris. I will be absolutely bloody done with playing the "would Evil do this though" IKYK game. I see Evil and I am voting to kill it. It's that simple. No more agonising or messing around. 

EDITED TO ADD: #3 for you Cash — @Cash67 You explicitly say the two who were killed were suspicious of Elk. Who are the two and are you including Szeth? Are you including the Division kill? If so, why do you do that? Do you think the user of the Division kill is Evil? 

Edited by Kasimir
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Rollover in 4 hours!

Vote Count:

  • _Stick_ (3): Araris Valerian / ... wait Araris never went to his Ookla name.

 

Vote Count: 

  • _Stick_ (3): Araris Valerian, Kasimir, Archer / Ookla the Paragrapher
  • Archer / Ookla the Paragrapher (1): The Unknown Novel / Ookla the Unknown
  • xinoehp512 / Ookla the Forgotten (1): _Stick_
  • Elkanah (1): Cash67

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

@Kasimir

the two of them were at odds, so unless this is a huge play by the elims, I thought one of them would have been evil. I now see one is V, so I’m following thru on the E

Now that division has been revealed, I think that the user is gonna be a little more active with it. With stormlight counts being reset at the next night, I think that things are going start Speeding up

 

And I’m in mobile rn but I can double check later tonight. I think it might have been Bookwyrm? Idk right now though. And with division, their next kill should be shown to be whether or not they are village. Do they go with consensus or are the wiping Vs off the map left and right?

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Just now, Ookla the Debonair said:

Been composing music for like the last five hours so I'm absolutely drained, but I trust Kas. 

Might as well vote for the first time this game to solidify Stick

If ML V!Stick then go after E!Archer/Araris sounds A-okay to me

 

Uhhhhhh.

Bruh.

I am actually considering if I want to go off Stick and onto the Xino or Archer trains so I would advise not sheeping me.

I am currently in the middle of a five game re-read consisting of four E!Stick games and one V!Stick game to make up my mind if this is plausible for E!Stick.

As much as I want to (myself) just sheep the Araris/Archer bloc, I really should do better and I can't face the dead doc with grace if I don't at least make one more try to see if I am on board with E!Stick or not.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

16 minutes ago, Kasimir said:

Uhhhhhh.

Bruh.

I am actually considering if I want to go off Stick and onto the Xino or Archer trains so I would advise not sheeping me.

So, you're saying there's a chance of a tie?  *rubs hands together gleefully*

Link to comment
Share on other sites

15 minutes ago, Ookla the Unknown said:

What are the reasons for e!Stick again?

@Kasimir, @Araris Valerian, @Ookla the Paragrapher

K. Short version on my part is that it's vote profiling, sort of down to who I read V on the D1 Wiz train (<Xino, Tani, Stick, Elk, Szeth>), and predicated on the D2 Elk push and her final train. Partly because I didn't like how polarised Stick and Araris were when Bookwyrm was anything but polarising - most people had a meh I guess on Bookwyrm and were largely apathetic. And I have a better read on Araris despite completely disagreeing with his worldview so oy vey.

I agree that the D2 Elk push sort of reads like E!Stick to me in terms of how she engages, and I am vaguely leaning towards Elk being the favoured ML.

I don't disagree that Illwei and Mat were both suspicious of Stick, so they could be suspicion kills, but I also don't see Stick as being particularly susceptible to NKing Illwei or not doing so - I think Stick's killing MO as indicated in previous docs (cf. LG86, LG89) is she actually tends to kill her strongest/stronger Village reads, and she dislikes killing people who are suspicious of her, so Mat would not be a good Stick kill either. It's not impossible, but it's...yeah.

If you're asking why I literally just voted Stick a couple hours ago despite also being very loudly unhappy about it, I'd ragequit and decided to just throw in with Archer and Araris despite suspecting them to hell and back. Also because of one or two other factors I incidentally know about but can't mention in the thread at this stage.

I've decided to go back and re-read and vote with my heart because ragequitting is unworthy and if I die tonight, I want to die having voted for who I sincerely believe is Evil. Even if I'm wrong, this way, I can look the dead doc in the eye. I am currently in the middle of a five game Stick re-read but my immediate gut impulse is I don't think Stick is Evil.

Between <Archer, Elk, Xino>, I am sort of actually low key tempted to vote Archer, one thing about Xino makes no sense to me, and I feel I would prefer to stick with my view that E!Elk doesn't have a reason to resist Bookwyrm this strongly.

33 minutes ago, Alvron said:

So, you're saying there's a chance of a tie?  *rubs hands together gleefully*

Yeah :/

I just gotta go with what I believe, I think.

I know, Gods of luck and chance, but I think it is important to me and to my sense of integrity as a Villager to just do the work. Even if I am wrong, I am wrong. At least I did my best and will have no regrets.

Edited to add: @Ookla the Unknown - Immediate willingness to go Xino also struck me as being a bit off I guess.

Edited by Kasimir
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Guest
This topic is now closed to further replies.
  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    • No registered users viewing this page.
×
×
  • Create New...