Long Game 91: A Fresh Start in Shinovar

[Araris Valerian]

I’m still pretty sick, but I’ve independently been suspicious of Stick. I’ll do my best to get some more comprehensive thoughts out there later, but figured I’d at least get a vote down.

[Kasimir]

24 minutes ago, Ookla the Paragrapher said:

-Turtle is village because they had and volunteered they had a PM with Illwei.

I think Turtle is referring to the thread PM

Xino

TUN

On further reflection, I am not as confident in Xino as I'd want to be. I'd like to be talked out of it or into it, because I've been sending maybe five to ten permutations in my GM PM and feel things are getting increasingly kasyana.

I functionally cannot see Xino's vote on Bookwyrm D1 making sense with E!Xino. It's the exact opposite of where an Elim wants to be: it's noisy and attention-grabbing, it's an excessive fourth vote, and it gets the number of votes on TUN wrong. It does appear Xino selected Bookwyrm over TUN, which should be very telling in an E!TUN world. But that being said, Xino's vote coming the way it did with over thirty-six hours in the cycle doesn't feel right for E!Xino. I feel like E!Xino should've been more on top of the votes.

I'll note that with Mat and Szeth flipping Village, most of the lead trains for most of D1 were always Village and have flipped Village. Mat, Szeth, myself, Bookwyrm, Wiz. This makes me believe E!Xino just had very little incentive to make the vote he did.

25 minutes ago, Ookla the Paragrapher said:

I also see the logic behind a Xino push - and will note the high upside of an e!flip, especially if it turns out that those who have villagey roles are within the suspect pool that remains after that. 

Oh?

I'm willing to vote Stick as well.

[Turtle]

16 minutes ago, Kasimir said:

I think Turtle is referring to the thread PM

yeah i was lol
smh i just realized i’m not following this, so here i am

v!szeth is interesting i bet i can find someone who had tmi but we’ll see

[Kasimir]

45 minutes ago, ookla the POKE VOTE said:

v!szeth is interesting i bet i can find someone who had tmi but we’ll see

Considering I laid out a whole post defending Szeth as Village, I'm not sure V!Szeth is 'interesting' - to put it mildly, I'd've said it was fairly apparent this was the more eminently sensible read based off Szeth's player profile.

Edited to add:

Just to throw some of my thoughts out:

This is the raw EoD from D1 with the flips coloured in.

1 hour ago, Kasimir said:

Mat (2): Insanity, Chantara
Wiz (5): Xino, Tani, Szeth, Alv, Elk, Stick
Bookwyrm (4): JNV, Wiz, Araris, Alv
Alv (2): Illwei, Cash
Szeth (3): TUN, Archer, Mat
Kas (1): Kas

Prima facie, if I colour in any player I have even the slightest reason to V!read, I have a problem:

1 hour ago, Kasimir said:

Mat (2): Insanity, Chantara
Wiz (5): Xino, Tani, Szeth, Elk, Stick
Bookwyrm (4): JNV, Wiz, Araris, Alv
Alv (2): Illwei, Cash
Szeth (3): TUN, Archer, Mat
Kas (1): Kas
No Vote (3): Turtle, Bookwyrm, Silho

No voting was the lowest D1. It's higher D2, but we'll cross that bridge in a short while. The first problem: I don't believe there is a coherent Elim team in <Insanity, Chantara, Tani, TUN, Turtle, Silho>. Which entails that at least one (realistically, probably a whole bunch) of my Village reads was badly assigned and must be revised.

I also don't believe so many trains were pure. Functionally, I expect at least two Elims on both the Wiz and Bookwyrm trains in total.

The other problem occurs in D2:

This isn't raw EoD. It's before Mat switches, but is close enough to EoD.

5 minutes ago, Kasimir said:

Elk (3): Bookwyrm, Szeth, Xino
Szeth (2): TUN, Stick
Bookwyrm (4): Araris, JNV, Turtle, Cash
Xino (2): Kas, Insanity
Araris (2): Mat, Archer

Again, if I colour in any player I have even the slightest reason to V!read, I have another problem:

5 minutes ago, Kasimir said:

Elk (3): Bookwyrm, Szeth, Xino
Szeth (2): TUN, Stick
Bookwyrm (4): Araris, JNV, Turtle, Cash
Xino (2): Kas, Insanity
Araris (2): Mat, Archer
No Vote (): Silho, Chantara, Elk, Tani

This isn't a vote distribution that makes too much sense. Which implies that there's likely a bunch of revisions I need to do.

Since I'd like a brief nap before Germany v. Spain, these are the rough buckets of players I'm not down to revise for the moment:

NO: <Archer, Araris, Alv, JNV, Cash>

Functionally, I need to reconsider: <Elk, Stick, Xino>

It helps that I'm not really convinced that the D1 Wiz train was pure or that Tani was the only Elim on it:

Quote

Wiz (5): Xino, Tani, Szeth, Alv, Elk, Stick

I'm not prepared to rethink my V!Alv gut at this point in time. I'm sure people have died for underestimating E!Alv, just as they have for underestimating E!Araris, but whatever, if I can't trust my gut on the first teammate I played SE with, then what the hell is it good for.

I don't rule out that Tani is Evil. RNG hopping onto the Wiz train is a bit ? But not especially catchable at this juncture.

Between <Elk, Stick, Xino>:

(E1) D2 EoD felt too low temperature. Szeth and I were complaining about the quiet. But in truth, it was already quiet (and this is why I took the timeslice I did) before Mat's swap from Araris to Bookwyrm. I don't feel the Elims (or Elk, for that matter, who was lurking at EoD) feel so calm if Elk were Evil, given Alv's propensity for ties, and fears of vote manip. As a result, I think that's some reason to look at V!Elk.

(E2) Fifth vote on Bookwyrm is kayana, I'm sorry. And that's where Elk functionally was for part of D1. I think it shows a level of comfort or dgaf with the thread and with how he is perceived that makes me think Elk is more likely to be Village. The fact that Elk was embroiled in the tie issue at EoD shows that you can't take the reluctance to vote Bookwyrm as being E!indicative, because E!Elk would have no trouble just voting Bookwyrm: it's an open and shut case. But D1 EoD shows Elk didn't have trouble actually endangering Bookwyrm and was in fact indifferent to it. So I see this as making more sense with V!Elk than E!Elk - with Elk's reluctance being explained straightforwardly by the considerations he mentioned with regard to not wanting to immediately leap on Bookwyrm.

Ok, sorry. I'm going to have to get to the rest later. I am feeling dizzy and I really need that nap before Germany-Spain.

Time to get my heart broken again :sob:

Edited November 27, 2022 by Kasimir

[Shining Silhouette]

Okay Kas is right it's time to get serious. I'm here for the foreseeable future.

 

Reads

 

Village Reads

Kas:

Spoiler

Reasons Kas is V off the top of my head:

• Genuine interest in solving—he dislikes the current low temperature and constantly encourages discussion
• Didn't vote Bookwyrm D2
• Clearly invested in the game
• Literally been carrying the Village
• I actively try to prevent myself from auto V-reading Kas and actually was slightly elim reading him earlier this game so this isn't an autoclear

 

Lean Village:

Turtle: 

Spoiler

On 11/21/2022 at 5:41 PM, ookla the POKE VOTE said:

right um also sudden bookwyrm thing is interesting? tbh id like to wait a bit before yeeting them as this is like their third game

On 11/22/2022 at 10:42 AM, ookla the POKE VOTE said:

not sure if i already said this but sort of don’t want to yeet bookwyrm d1 here, i think that e!bookwyrm in this game has way more partners and people to coach them than qf63 and i’m seeing less coached!bookwyrm here.

First shows reluctance D1 to voting V!Bookworm, then emphasizes this once more in a later post.

 

On 11/21/2022 at 6:08 PM, ookla the POKE VOTE said:

[about Illwei] honestly you seem kinda towny so far

On 11/22/2022 at 10:42 AM, ookla the POKE VOTE said:

i know illwei likes to change around their style but this feels much more like v!illwei rn

On 11/22/2022 at 6:26 PM, ookla the POKE VOTE said:

kas and illwei are both v and that’s the strongest d1 read i’ve had in a while

Strong defense of V!Illwei

 

On 11/25/2022 at 7:45 PM, ookla the POKE VOTE said:

lack of contribution is annoying but i’m also coming down with sickness so i’m unlikely to be incredibly active :(.

i’ll go bookwyrm for now because i think there’s a decent chance they’re elim and their flip gives us some info

As stated, Turtle waits a bit (Until D2) and then votes Bookwyrm

 

On 11/26/2022 at 7:20 AM, ookla the POKE VOTE said:

araris

deadwei is absolutely judging us and i look forward to reading the dead doc

The N2 Vote and the comment about being judged feel like they come from a villager mindset

Stick:

Spoiler

On 11/22/2022 at 10:10 AM, _Stick_ said:

On 11/21/2022 at 11:14 AM, Ookla the Perpetual said:

So I guess we're all accidentally implying things that we don't mean to.

This sentence makes me want to v-read bookwyrm because as an elim, you'd ideally want to jump at people backtracking on their statements. Saying this, though, puts you in a box where you can't exactly throw votes at people for suspicious backtracking. Even if it was said in self-defence, it looks mildly good.

Initially V-reads Bookwyrm then emphasizes this in the next several posts.

On 11/23/2022 at 10:33 AM, _Stick_ said:

Why are people elim-reading bookwyrm? I found their misunderstanding with Mat regarding Araris' post to be villagery. Part of the reason is probably just that I'd also initially interpreted Araris' post in that way (to mean that his Alv vote was based off Alv's voting which didnt make sense as Alv had yet to post).

Then N1, says this.

I don't really see E!Stick doing this during a night turn when Bookwyrm isn't up for the lynch.

@Kasimir, how often do elims strongly defend villagers when they're up for lynch?

Archer:

Spoiler

Reading through Archer's posts at once makes me v read him. His posts feel very solid and written from a villager mindset

On 11/26/2022 at 7:56 AM, Ookla the Paragrapher said:

I forget what Jez is, but is there a way of identifying blade holders? Shaman gets information, so they should be discernable because that influences their activity. It's also a more important position to the game. Missing PMs or a Coinshot or any single blade ability is less seismic than the custom Shaman role. 

Also this meme of TUN 'claiming' Shaman as well as forgetting what Jez is leans towards V!Archer imo

 

Neutral +

Chantara:

Spoiler

On 11/22/2022 at 0:37 AM, Chantara said:

Did no one else think it would actually be really clever of the elims to do an in-thread PM and pretend it was a joke? Just because I feel like it’s something that could be a rouse to direct suspicion elsewhere TUN

Votes TUN because of the PMs (which were started by me). I feel like she would be coached to not do this in the elim doc as TUN wasn't associated much with the PMs and E!Chantara could also easily vote V!Me for the same reasons but less pushback

 

Also

On 11/23/2022 at 2:03 PM, Chantara said:

I felt the need to vote because not voting looks really bad

 

Neutral

JNV:

Spoiler

On 11/21/2022 at 1:31 PM, JNV said:

And with the advent of the official shuffle squat I would just like to say Im getting village positive vibes from both kasimir and Matrim thank you very much 

This is the only post that stood out to me

 

Neutral -

Cash:

Spoiler

I wrote a paragraph here a couple hours ago but I accidentally deleted it and I've written so much since then so I don't remember what I wrote here but I'm trusting my past self and keeping him here

TUN:

Spoiler

On 11/22/2022 at 7:01 PM, Ookla the Unknown said:

I'm making a point to vote more this game, and I have had enough reason behind them to be fine with it. I'm always willing to vote if there are good reasons, and there have been some pretty good ones.

TUN seems to be changing styles this game. I feel like his responses and reasons as to why have been suspicious from my pov 

On 11/24/2022 at 9:21 PM, Ookla the Unknown said:

the thread felt too quiet, so I voted to hopefully generate some activity.

Do I just always e read TUN

Why is this suspicious to me even though it's villagery 0.o

On 11/24/2022 at 1:20 PM, Ookla the Unknown said:

I'll be honest and say Illwei would totally be someone I would pick to kill.

Am I tunnelling on TUN

I feel like Bold!TUN is E!TUN but also Chaos!TUN is either one

On 11/23/2022 at 9:00 PM, Ookla the Unknown said:

@Matrim's Dice, I don't know if you're talking about me, but I am v!reading Kas for them seeming to be more in their v!meta rather than just effort reading.

Why does this feel overly defensive.

I'm putting TUN in neutral- instead of elim cause I don't trust myself enough and my logic feels flawed

Alv:

Spoiler

Wow, Alv realllly likes ties

Yes this is all I'm going to say

 

Elim lean

Xino:

Spoiler

On 11/23/2022 at 6:36 PM, Ookla the Forgotten said:

Uh... to tie.  Now that you mention that, yeah that probably wasn't my smartest play >.<

Votes Bookwyrm, then Wizard to "tie"

Also seems generally suspicious

Elkanah:

Spoiler

Inserting Stick's post on Elk here

I agree with a lot of this. The comment about not trusting Wiz, and the RP thought both sit right with me.

ALSO guys what's up with the obsession with ties this game

 

---

Reads Tiered:

 

Kas

Turtle, Stick, Archer

Chantara

JNV

Cash, TUN, Alv

Xino, Elk

 

---

Guys I'm a very very slow post writer but now that I've gotten my thoughts out there I'm back and will be up to date with the game

As for voting, I think I'll vote tomorrow. Let my thoughts settle and whatnot. Also I'm very tired you can watch my energy levels decrease throughout the post

 

Edited November 27, 2022 by Ookla the Debonair
formating

[Archer]

Quote

I don't really see E!Stick doing this during a night turn when Bookwyrm isn't up for the lynch.

Hi Sil! To question that conclusion, I'd argue that it doesn't take away any of the elims' likely kill options if they aren't widely suspected, so it's a low cost play. 

Quote

I feel like [Chantara] would be coached to not do this in the elim doc as TUN wasn't associated much with the PMs and E!Chantara could also easily vote V!Me for the same reasons but less pushback

I feel like the elim coaching line of inquiry is better suited for more general tactics. This is possibly too specific for it to have come up in the doc. 

Quote

Why does this [TUN post] feel overly defensive.

Self analysis where you shade yourself, which is what they've done a few times, is weird to read. 

Quote

ALSO guys what's up with the obsession with ties this game

They're very intieresting

 

Quote

. I don't feel the Elims (or Elk, for that matter, who was lurking at EoD) feel so calm if Elk were Evil, given Alv's propensity for ties, and fears of vote manip. As a result, I think that's some reason to look at V!Elk.

Two counter theories, Kas:

-people were watching for save attempts and would probably have forced a tie if the elims had padded the margins, so hoping for the best might have been the safer play

-the elims might have vote manip

That said, I think I agree with the v!Elk read you make. 

Quote

Oh?

There's a number of not e-e people to them

7 hours ago, ookla the POKE VOTE said:

yeah i was lol
smh i just realized i’m not following this, so here i am

sigh     I wanted an easy read

[Cash67]

1 hour ago, Ookla the Debonair said:

 

Neutral -

Cash:

 

Simultaneously honored that I got a whole paragraph and sad that my paragraph dissapeared

Edited November 27, 2022 by Cash67

[Turtle]

54 minutes ago, Ookla the Paragrapher said:

sigh     I wanted an easy read

er, sorry

anything i can do to make that read easier, lol?

i’m trying to formulate reads but i’m sick and trying to write a paper so that’ll have to wait but if you want my opinion on any one person i can probably do that

[Kasimir]

10 hours ago, Ookla the Paragrapher said:

But I'm most riled by Stick. Their previous votes are where I'd expect an elim's to be. They're also seem to be pretty independently minded, which implies a hidden agenda. Them starting every Day with a strong push but not engaging in the night talk is triggering my gut. 

Care to spell this out a bit more?

10 hours ago, Ookla the Paragrapher said:

I also see the logic behind a Xino push - and will note the high upside of an e!flip, especially if it turns out that those who have villagey roles are within the suspect pool that remains after that. 

Same with this.

2 hours ago, Ookla the Paragrapher said:

Two counter theories, Kas:

-people were watching for save attempts and would probably have forced a tie if the elims had padded the margins, so hoping for the best might have been the safer play

-the elims might have vote manip

They might, but it would be a bit odd for the Elims to have both vote manip Blades, is my view. But I'll happily agree it's an assumption.

In terms of distro, we know one protect Blade started with one Villager. No idea about the other one, or if Jez started in Villager hands. I do think that Chana is Village, sort of. E!Chana starting PMs instead of killing N1 is odd to me. It could be some high level play, which might explain why I'm still alive, I guess. That being said, one of Chana/the Elims killed Mat, the other killed Szeth. I'd agree with you that Szeth feels like a low-info Elim kill, but something is bugging me, and that's that collectively, Chana and the Elims revealed a significant swathe of the D1 wagons, and I can't help but wonder if that's really intended. It nudges me just a bit into leaning V!Chana. I guess I could see the Elims starting with E!Vedel in that landscape, possibly one of the roleblock Blades.

The issue about people watching for save attempts and forcing a tie is that given the previous Day, I feel it isn't the end for them - they can easily cast suspicion on those people, iof the flip goes their way. The events of D1 in my view generated tie-hostility. But I'm also of the view that the low tempo persisted through the entire cycle, and that doesn't really speak of a cycle where an Elim was persistently under threat to me. Some of it could naturally be swallowed by the Bookwyrm train, but Elk's docility when he could easily vote Bookwyrm claiming to block a second tie after the D1 backlash doesn't seem quite right to me either.

I'm aware you're also on V!Elk right now, I'm just trying to think this through/aloud, as is my wont. I will say I don't feel the Elk train is as 'wrong' as the Bookwyrm train, but I'm a bit uncomfortable with it.

My issues with Xino are a combination of disliking his votes, and feeling that disengagement tends to be more indicative of E!Xino than V!Xino, historically, although he's had overriding reasons for these. I don't feel I can make a coherent judgement of whether E!Xino would or would not vote Bookwyrm to tie with Mat, it just feels really odd, and my sense is that an Elim should be less likely to make that mistake, not more likely. I'd like to bounce thoughts off on this score - I feel like I could be making a mistake somewhere, but am not sure where.

I'm going to be fair and state that I don't have a strong read on JNV. I'm just not ready to reconsider them at this juncture because I've tunnelled on them in two previous games and gotten them killed so I do not feel right pushing against JNV right now. If there's a case, I'm willing to reconsider but I am not really okay with this.

Turtle's activity and attempts at analysis make me think V!Turtle, but I still dislike their votes, so they haven't moved out of the grey zone for me. I don't trust myself at making a successful player profile of Turtle, so I don't want to rely overly on playstyle.

I am glad to see more activity from Silho, but the fact Silho's readslist basically is Village on every proactive player makes me feel a bit :| No active read on Silho at the moment, but I have a significant amount of doubt.

So far, I've been working off the assumption the Elims killed Szeth as a low profile kill, but the part about it that doesn't make sense to me is that killing Szeth sort of doesn't work. The Szeth train has been lurking repeatedly and Archer himself was making an E!Szeth case. As far as I can recall, I was the only player defending V!Szeth or willing to, and I can't block a train on my own. With Szeth as a potential mislynch target, I feel that Mat makes a bit more sense as an Elim kill - with Archer and Stick and I V!reading him, he's basically not going to get MLed anytime soon. 

Suppose I'm right here: suppose that Szeth was Chana-killed and Mat E-killed. I still lean towards V!Chana: I don't know, the idea the Elims are cool with flipping Szeth seems odd to me since that still gives us sight into a decent chunk of D1. But in this world, I almost lean towards E!TUN: suspicion kills are very much part of TUN's MO and one of the players that Mat was suspicious of D2 was TUN. Add that to the N1 Illwei kill and I don't think that's a bad place to look.

Ngl guys, feeling like the Village Thilo Kehrer right now, so discussion is appreciated so I can actually correct my thoughts/get back on track  

[Shining Silhouette]

7 minutes ago, Kasimir said:

I am glad to see more activity from Silho, but the fact Silho's readslist basically is Village on every proactive player makes me feel a bit :| No active read on Silho at the moment, but I have a significant amount of doubt.

You know, I do always have that issue. 

Maybe I should make a tiered list for just those active players, because my village tiers are not created equal.

I'd been fine voting on some and not on others.

[Kasimir]

18 minutes ago, Ookla the Debonair said:

I'd been fine voting on some and not on others.

Who?

26 minutes ago, Kasimir said:

11 hours ago, Ookla the Paragrapher said:

But I'm most riled by Stick. Their previous votes are where I'd expect an elim's to be. They're also seem to be pretty independently minded, which implies a hidden agenda. Them starting every Day with a strong push but not engaging in the night talk is triggering my gut. 

Care to spell this out a bit more?

Tbf, my issues with Stick just come out of voting, a bit back to my <Araris, Stick> pool issue, and finally because I'm not fully comfortable with the Elk push, so that is where I'm at. I'll spell it out in a bit more when I'm not handling other things, but I'd also like to better understand what you mean by this.

[Archer]

Quote

I'd agree with you that Szeth feels like a low-info Elim kill

I actually think Chana shot Szeth. Our Night discussion made it clear that Mat was widely village read. Szeth should have been too, but I can see someone having Cash's mindset, wanting to check the random voters. 

Annnd you got to this conclusion later in the post. 

Quote

But I'm most riled by Stick. Their previous votes are where I'd expect an elim's to be. They're also seem to be pretty independently minded, which implies a hidden agenda. Them starting every Day with a strong push but not engaging in the night talk is triggering my gut. 

My overall impression of Stick is that they're bringing well-packaged ideas to the thread but not bouncing ideas off of people the way a confused villager might. I can't find a single example of them backtracking/changing their mind, which implies they're presenting a case, not constructing one on the fly. 

As for their votes, they're in on the Wizard wagon. They start D2 with a strong push, which is meant to seize control of the thread direction. Then I think them adding to your Xino vote was meant to set the thread direction again by establishing a main wagon people might gravitate to simply because it's an existing wagon. 

Quote

I also see the logic behind a Xino push - and will note the high upside of an e!flip, especially if it turns out that those who have villagey roles are within the suspect pool that remains after that. 

Who isn't Xino's elim teammate?: Araris encouraged me to vote Xino D1. Xino voted Elk in a threatening manner D2 (I thought it was D1 before because I looked at the wrong VC). Insanity voted Xino somewhat dangerously D2. The Shaman and Chana probably aren't elims. I'm saying we have a smaller than average pool of e-e partners for Xino, so either they're a great flip to make, or they're village. 

As for why they might be evil, I flagged (before I backed off of it) them voting strategically, not by suspicions on D1. On both D1 and D2 they end up on a main wagon, so they're adding to the big pushes that keep the elims from ever being close to being in contention. 

Quote

I don't rule out that Tani is Evil. RNG hopping onto the Wiz train is a bit ? But not especially catchable at this juncture.

That's why I specifically asked her to explain how she got to that vote. Was it RNG of 20 players or perhaps some kind of limited RNG, like just people with votes on them. I'd actually caution against calling it RNG because they specifically said 'flips coin', which implies a 50/50? It's a very convenient vote for the elims at that point because it makes I think a four way tie. 

3 hours ago, ookla the POKE VOTE said:

i’m trying to formulate reads but i’m sick and trying to write a paper so that’ll have to wait but if you want my opinion on any one person i can probably do that

Would you rather kill Xino or Stick and are you willing to throw your vote behind that?

[Alvron]

15 minutes ago, Ookla the Paragrapher said:

Would you rather kill Xino or Stick and are you willing to throw your vote behind that?

Why not put both up and leave it in the hands of the Gods of Luck and Chance.   I could get behind that.

[Kasimir]

25 minutes ago, Ookla the Paragrapher said:

I actually think Chana shot Szeth. Our Night discussion made it clear that Mat was widely village read. Szeth should have been too, but I can see someone having Cash's mindset, wanting to check the random voters. 

Your first post this cycle suggested Szeth was Elim killed. Any reason why?

12 hours ago, Ookla the Paragrapher said:

I'm guessing Szeth was the NK. Some other working assumptions:

You were making a partial case for E!Szeth last Night, which is why I'd agree with Chana shooting Szeth rather than Mat.

25 minutes ago, Ookla the Paragrapher said:

My overall impression of Stick is that they're bringing well-packaged ideas to the thread but not bouncing ideas off of people the way a confused villager might. I can't find a single example of them backtracking/changing their mind, which implies they're presenting a case, not constructing one on the fly. 

Fair enough. I would agree with this assessment - it's sort of my issue with the Elk push D2.

25 minutes ago, Ookla the Paragrapher said:

As for why they might be evil, I flagged (before I backed off of it) them voting strategically, not by suspicions on D1. On both D1 and D2 they end up on a main wagon, so they're adding to the big pushes that keep the elims from ever being close to being in contention. 

I don't disagree, it just seems very blatant and unnecessary for E!Xino D1, though he's historically had a habit of unnecessary votes and getting sussed for them, cf. his D1 in LG89. That's what's pulling me short: I just don't really see that sort of blatantly wrong votecount and fourth vote making sense, since he created a Bookwyrm-Mat tie. It maybe marginally makes sense in an E!TUN world and even that is generous because it's so many hours into the cycle. He could've just sidetrain voted and gotten an easy passage into D1. Xino wasn't on a main wagon D2, FWIW, since he was on Elk rather than Bookwyrm. Any wagon he voted on would've been a main Village wagon, short of himself and Araris. I at least am willing to believe V!Araris right now, so that's my conclusion. We know Szeth flipped Village, so there's just not many viable trains at this point.

17 hours ago, Kasimir said:

Elk (3): Bookwyrm, Szeth, Xino
Szeth (2): TUN, Stick
Bookwyrm (4): Araris, JNV, Turtle, Cash
Xino (2): Kas, Insanity
Araris (2): Mat, Archer

But it's self-pres one way or another so it doesn't count. That being said, I am really riled by Xino's lurking so I feel it washes out for me.

25 minutes ago, Ookla the Paragrapher said:

That's why I specifically asked her to explain how she got to that vote. Was it RNG of 20 players or perhaps some kind of limited RNG, like just people with votes on them. I'd actually caution against calling it RNG because they specifically said 'flips coin', which implies a 50/50? It's a very convenient vote for the elims at that point because it makes I think a four way tie. 

Fair. Don't disagree - with nothing forthcoming, I don't have a strong conclusion. I'd actually almost lean a very, very light shade of Village on her because of her player profile - she's still of the demographic that mistakenly finds Elim the 'cooler' alignment, so I can't really see her being this uninterested in the game if she's Evil. That being said, it's been quite a while since she's played and I wouldn't bet the farm on this line of reasoning (or on teammates just telling her not to respond) so I'm back to fifty shades of IDK.

Edited to add:

@Ookla the Forgotten - To be blunt, you signed up for a game. If you are Village, help us not ML you. What are your thoughts behind any of your votes, anything in the game, and where do you think we should go from you? Do you have any information at all that can help the Village?

Edited November 28, 2022 by Kasimir

[Archer]

6 minutes ago, Kasimir said:

1 - Your first post this cycle suggested Szeth was Elim killed. Any reason why?

2 - You were making a partial case for E!Szeth last Night, which is why I'd agree with Chana shooting Szeth rather than Mat.

3.Fair. Don't disagree - with nothing forthcoming, I don't have a strong conclusion. I'd actually almost lean a very, very light shade of Village on her because of her player profile - she's still of the demographic that mistakenly finds Elim the 'cooler' alignment, so I can't really see her being this uninterested in the game if she's Evil. That being said, it's been quite a while since she's played and I wouldn't bet the farm on this line of reasoning (or on teammates just telling her not to respond) so I'm back to fifty shades of IDK.

1. I wrote Szeth because sometimes my brain thinks one thing and writes the other. Mentally, I've been consistent. I just have no proof of that. :P. 

2. Delving too much further into the Chana kill risks exposing their identity so I'm hesitant to say more. 

3. That's a hard read to make without knowing the status of their offsite games. And life. 

Quote

But it's self-pres one way or another so it doesn't count

I'm just looking at the final VC, but there's something nuanced about not self pressing on the main wagon. If they weren't even at the time they voted, Xino was either consciously applying a read that led them to not vote Bookwyrm, or they smartly realized two big wagons are better than one. I'd have to look at the VC at their time of voting. But self pres is the free pass to pad a wagon, so it'd be interesting if they chose not to. 

[Kasimir]

7 minutes ago, Ookla the Paragrapher said:

1. I wrote Szeth because sometimes my brain thinks one thing and writes the other. Mentally, I've been consistent. I just have no proof of that. :P. 

This is depressing because I was V!reading you on the strength of "E!Archer wouldn't be insane enough to suggest Mat was the Chana kill." Now you're forcing me to go back to the drawing board  ¯\_(ツ)_/¯

7 minutes ago, Ookla the Paragrapher said:

2. Delving too much further into the Chana kill risks exposing their identity so I'm hesitant to say more. 

I'd agree with that, but I think at some point, we are just going to have to be upfront about action results. We're not nearly there yet, but we have to keep this in mind because too many Villages hesitate when it should just be shared to clear the slate. And yeah, I do have LG90 and the close of AG8 in mind here.

7 minutes ago, Ookla the Paragrapher said:

3. That's a hard read to make without knowing the status of their offsite games. And life. 

I would agree on life, disagree on offsite games. Confounding factor for players like Turtle and Illwei, sure, but anyone who has GMed Tani a couple of times will notice her asymmetric reaction to randing Village as compared to Elim and the engagement differential. Ultimately I'm still going to use it in the absence of anything else, but I want to know what her mindset was on the coinflip point anyway.

7 minutes ago, Ookla the Paragrapher said:

I'm just looking at the final VC, but there's something nuanced about not self pressing on the main wagon. If they weren't even at the time they voted, Xino was either consciously applying a read that led them to not vote Bookwyrm, or they smartly realized two big wagons are better than one. I'd have to look at the VC at their time of voting. But self pres is the free pass to pad a wagon, so it'd be interesting if they chose not to. 

Agreed with this. But with Xino on two votes, and tie-hungry Alv lurking like a shark, any non-Xino wagon padded would've given him a better life expectancy. But this is something to hear from Xino about.

Edited November 28, 2022 by Kasimir
Removed extra space

[The Unknown Ajah]

Hi, I'm here, kinda busy, hopefully will formulate some reads tomorrow. 

[Stick.]

People didn’t like it when I voted without reasons last game so I made it a point to lay them out now, especially because I know I will likely be unable to engage with the thread a lot since I just don’t have the time to even log on for hours on end. I probably should’ve given a warning while signing up.

Will try to give thoughts on the thread  tonight 

 

[xinoehp512]

2 hours ago, Kasimir said:

@Ookla the Forgotten - To be blunt, you signed up for a game. If you are Village, help us not ML you. What are your thoughts behind any of your votes, anything in the game, and where do you think we should go from you? Do you have any information at all that can help the Village?

K. I am more alive now! I was out of my house for the last week, so I couldn't take advantage of my newly restored computer connection. Hopefully I should be more active.

On 11/21/2022 at 0:21 PM, Ookla the Forgotten said:

Between TUN and Bookwyrm, I'm going to vote Bookwyrm.

This was for the purposes of creating a tie (well, at least, I thought it did). Interestingly I think it was the first real push in the cycle for ties, though it wasn't explicit.

On 11/21/2022 at 0:41 PM, Ookla the Forgotten said:

Mat (3): Shining, Insanity, Bookwyrm
Wizard (2): Archer, Xino
TUN (3): Stick, Szeth, Mat
Araris (1): TUN
Bookwyrm (4): JNV, Wizard, Araris, Elkanah

What if we made it more than 3 

Bookwyrm Wizard

This vote I was pressuring Wizard. I think I mentioned why earlier- this was because of the repeated random voting.

On 11/25/2022 at 10:17 PM, Ookla the Forgotten said:

Gaaah internet is not cooperating >:( 

From last EoD I am sus of Elkanah. That movement at the end was quite strange indeed.

Yeah. For all my support of ties earlier in the cycle, I don't think insisting upon it at EoD is the best option. Alvron I don't know if I can read, but Elkanah to me reads as an Elim trying to blend in. 

• Xino (1): Stick
• Stick (1): Archer
• TUN (1): Kas

Tomorrow I'll see if I can review the thread so far to glean further insights.

[Shining Silhouette]

8 hours ago, Kasimir said:

Who?

I will not vote Kas, Turtle, or Archer.

Everyone else but Stick I don't really care

 

As for Stick is there a tactical reason for E!Stick to constantly defend Bookwyrm D1 and N1? It's a strong enough move it would have to be intentional.

...That moment when you forget to click "submit reply" until the next morning

[Kasimir]

5 hours ago, Ookla the Forgotten said:

• Xino (1): Stick
• Stick (1): Archer
• TUN (1): Kas

You missed Araris's vote:

Quote

• Xino (1): Stick
• Stick (2): Archer, Araris
• TUN (1): Kas

I am having light difficulty seeing Stick and Xino teamed, but also not.

Not going to be my final vote, but one particular point bugs me on Xino. I am okay with voting one of <Stick, Xino>, with TUN as the outsider candidate. And I'd still like to hear from @Elkanah. I'm exceptionally riled by EoD lurking: if you are invested enough to check if you are under threat at EoD but not to say anything, I question the extent to which your investment is pro-Village and despite my read on Elk, I'm not interested in cutting him slack for that.

@_Stick_ - Your thoughts on an E!Archer world? Not sure how I feel about it but something feels very wrong with the consistent thread death.

I believe that if your Honorblade was taken by the Shaman, you should sound off if you've used it and tell us what your actions were. We've had two Nights by now, and I am finding 'don't expose the Shaman' very hard to swallow when some Honorblades grant information, and feel it is minimal risk if you have already lost your Blade anyway. You might as well tell us what you did so we can gain some information about what happened on previous cycles, especially with how this game has been deader than young Dalinar's enemies.

I'd also note I'd still like to hear from @Ookla the Implosion, @Cash67, @Chantara, @InfiniteInsanity, @Ookla the Unknown, @Alvron, @JNV. This cycle is exceptionally dead which makes me once again fear no Elim is under threat, and I low key hope Chana will stab within this crowd tonight. It beggars belief that this entire set contains our whole Elim team, but in the world it does, they are fundamentally being rewarded for inactive play, which I detest, and think they should minimally face the threat of death more. On the assumption that none of <Archer, Stick, myself> are Evil, all the Elims have to do to grab the thread by the throat by this point is to kill all three of us. If I'm the only Villager among us, congratulations, the second they stab me, the Elims have thread control.

I respect that people have other priorities than SE. I accept that RL happens. I accept as well that not everyone wants to do analysis. I certainly am not always in the mood to, especially when I'm GMing and also have World Cup, my day job, and an upcoming pair of exams to prepare for. Yes, that's right, Christmas exams, go me. But I do want to point out that if you are even moderately invested in your team winning, then unless you are Evil, you need to get in the damned thread. Blades are not going to win this for us, barring moments of individual brilliance. The most fundamental Village power is called 'showing up and posting the the thread and voting,' both so you can read others and let others read you.

Frankly, Village control of the thread shouldn't be predicated on a single life, or three of them.

-

Kvaseth-son-Wysan felt the dark sting of regret as he walked through the streets of Earthen Truth.

You picked up the sword to make a difference. He firmly believed that. He had to. The sword hurt; he carried the weight of his stone in his heart each day, but the stone was both reminder and promise. A reminder of the blood-price already paid; of the farming village going up in flames, the stench of blood, charred human flesh. It was a promise, that no one else would have to carry this stone.

That someone else could treasure the lush feeling of the vines against her fingers, the sunlight in the ripening wheat fields.

He had been too late, too indecisive, to save Szeth. He saw the scar that divided the dry earth.

What did you do, against a sword of the Heralds themselves?

There was Dazi-son-ron as well, and for all they'd found themselves on the wrong sides of the arguments that raged in the days within Earthen Truth, there had been a wary respect there. He had come to be convinced that Dazi-son-ron was not on the side of the Tukari, but Kvaseth wondered if he had been wiser not to vouch for Dazi, if the wiser path would have been that of restraint.

Perhaps they'd killed Dazi because they thought he'd been trained by the Stone Shamans. Perhaps they'd killed Dazi because he was onto them. Kvaseth felt like he was chasing at the wind. He was only one man, and much of Earthen Truth had become apathetic, quietly indifferent to the Tukari. Perhaps the Tukari would cut all of them down.

The windspren had been following him through the city. He watched her dart at the angerspren bubbling about his feet.

He didn't like feeling so helpless.

Maybe it was better to be as the windspren. He didn't think she knew, or cared about the Tukari, the way Vartan and the rest of the High Council had gathered others in Earthen Truth to die.

He watched a child buying a skewer of candied fruit from a street seller, and felt the sharp tearing pain of grief; love abruptly halted, still reverberating through his soul, even now, and he turned away, against the sharp stinging in his eyes.

They were all going to die and no one cared.

Not the High Council. Not the residents of Earthen Truth.

And Kvaseth-son-Wysan was only one man, and he couldn't have saved Szeth, or Dazi-son-Ron, for all he'd tried, for all he'd felt as though it was his fault.

Maybe he shouldn't care either. Maybe people who didn't care about the sword at their throats deserved to die.

But something deep within him rebelled at that bitter thought, rejected it.

Sometimes, people wouldn't save themselves. It didn't mean you didn't try anyway.

Edited to add:

1 hour ago, Ookla the Debonair said:

As for Stick is there a tactical reason for E!Stick to constantly defend Bookwyrm D1 and N1? It's a strong enough move it would have to be intentional.

It's often easier to generate Village reads when Evil than Evil reads when Evil, for obvious reasons. In a world where there are lots of ties, your votes on a Village/bad train look less bad if you sell them as defending your Village read compared to if you actually think the player you voted on was Evil.

I don't deny it's a valid tactic Village-side - I just did this in QF63 by MLing TUN (sorry) because I had a strong Village read of Archer and wanted to defend Archer, and was leaning null/null- on TUN, so he was basically the only viable train I thought I could get a protective CW on. (Recall, I Village-read Wiz and wanted a CW on Turtle but knew I was not going to ever get Turtle to agree to vote Turtle, so didn't have the numbers.)

If Stick wants to protect Bookwyrm, then arguably she either makes a Wiz train go through or a Szeth train. Elk didn't want to go on Szeth - Elk was hopping between Bookwyrm and Wiz, so functionally Wiz would've been her only option. I could see it as being both an Elim and Village move so I don't know if I'd ascribe especial credit for it.

I do give Araris more Village credit for tiebreaking because I feel that tiebreaking when insisting Bookwyrm is Evil (remember, LHF!) is a mildly more gutsy move than defending V!Bookwyrm, since Evil!Stick knows Bookwyrm is Village anyway.

That being said, at some point you just have to decide which way you think the IKYK goes and check. 

Part of me is theorising an <Archer-TUN-Xino-???-???> team, maybe with Cash on it? IDK, Elk? I think V!Elk but in an E!Archer world, I'd wonder about E!Elk. E!Xino more likely since in E!Archer world, E!Stick is the CW to E!Xino. Part of me is theorising a <Stick-TUN-???-???-???> team. I think TUN is a good fit on either team which should probably tell me I am actually better off voting him today. I don't know I fully believe E!Elk because Stick did push Elk and then defect partway through, and now went for Xino. So I guess Elk might be Evil in that world anyway. 

I won't completely dismiss the possibility of E!Araris from either team but would suppose he fits better. <Archer-TUN-Xino-Araris-Cash>?

Wow look it's D3 and I;m already boldly guessing potential teams like we know enough to do so, congratulations Kas, good work, get judged wrecked by the dead doc.

Edited to add 2: @Ookla the Debonair - Right, my bad. In short, I would say there is some form of tactical reason, namely that if you expect Bookwyrm to be a ML after that, you won't be seriously implicated by vote analysis. Whether that's what's going on here, I am not so sure. I am not absurdly sold on E!Stick. I just feel that at this point, due to there only being so much information, thanks to the dismal state of the thread, I am more or less making far too much extrapolations on far too little information.

Edited November 28, 2022 by Kasimir

[Archer]

Quote

This cycle is exceptionally dead which makes me once again fear no Elim is under threat,

Counter proposal: the thread has yet to lurch in a predictable direction and the elims don't want to commit their votes until they have a sense of where the critical mass of villagers are going with theirs. 

I'm jokingly thinking that you sound like you want to leave this exe up to a coin flip. :D. 

2 hours ago, Ookla the Debonair said:

I will not vote Kas, Turtle, or Archer.

Everyone else but Stick I don't really care

This really reads like they're teamed with Stick 

[Kasimir]

47 minutes ago, Ookla the Paragrapher said:

I'm jokingly thinking that you sound like you want to leave this exe up to a coin flip. :D. 

No, but I want to get it right, and unfortunately, I don't think anyone in this game is currently interested in doing that.

47 minutes ago, Ookla the Paragrapher said:

Counter proposal: the thread has yet to lurch in a predictable direction and the elims don't want to commit their votes until they have a sense of where the critical mass of villagers are going with theirs. 

The set of <Xino, Stick>, with a <TUN, Archer, Insanity> side still looks reasonable to me but Chana should really start stabbing the quiet people to make it clear sitting back is not going to save them. At this point, if I were Chana, I'd nuke that whole set, quite frankly.

I don't really buy this counterproposal when at least 7/15 surviving players have shown they can't be bothered to play a game they signed up for despite checking the thread.

I'll agree this is a harsh assessment from me, but I have had enough of this. 

Edited to add:

I mean, we have two choices, right?

We can assume at least one of the remotely communicative players is Evil. This minimally gives us a set of <Archer, Stick, Kas, Araris, Xino, JNV, Elk, Cash>. And I hate to say it but I'm being generous on some of them. Or we can assume the Evils are in the quiets, who are functionally everyone else, and due to low posting and voting, are immune to varying degrees to post/vote analysis.

So we can decide to bite that bullet and vote them now and hope V!Chana stabs. 

Likely: 10-5

We ML today and a kill goes through because Pailah and Vedel are either Evil or are out of charges:

8-5 
6-5
4-5

With or without Chana, it'll take us three more cycles in which to lose, hopefully in which everyone else wakes the hell up and decides to play.

Frankly if I were Evil I'd stab me too. No one bothered to rethink Bookwyrm. Araris literally threw a vote and left. People sort of hopped on the train and didn't care. We're not substantively thinking about Xino [Edited to add: or Stick] and no one is engaging or thinking beyond the few basic points that have been chewed over again and again.

Do I feel like making it a coinflip?

Hell no.

I want thoughts. I want people to poke holes. I want people to get their crem together and start making sense of these things because last cycle, pretty much nothing happened and that's frustrating as all hell.

Edited to add 2: Like, Stick doesn't count because she was V!Bookwyrm all the way. I nudged her about Araris's point and that didn't even bloody matter? So people are just throwing one thought out, sticking with it, and going for it. Great if you're short on time, awful for the Village. Sure, this can probably be a meta-conversation again which Hael will fondly remember from the inactivity blight, but that's just a bloody awful game landscape.

I don't want to make this about whose life sucks more, so I'm noting I get what it means to be busy. I actively am making time because last week, I was on medical leave and sick, I'm still preparing for the two exams which require me to work on ongoing project submissions, I have work, and I have to make sure my own game is running smoothly. And I watch the World Cup! Because Deutschland! And great football!

I get that Thanksgiving is a major activity damper for people and RL >>> SE.

And with all of that, I still say: if 7/15 of your living players cannot be bothered to show up or say anything, we have a problem.

My current reads while shooting in that fishbarrel of silence?

Still think Chantara could be Evil. Disagree that I read her post as Village, think her votes look opportunistic and Evil, disappeared off the face of the Earth, therefore no better read.

Silho? Great, thanks for getting back into the game. Had a major dgaf D1 and vanished for quite a while. Would I stab him? Sure, why not, let's roll the dice, right? Who knows who is Evil anyway in this bloody game?

Cash? Disagree that his post looks Village too - don't feel Elim doc coaching comes into play without an assessment of his experience level. Whast we really need from Cash are actual views. Slight negative for votes, maybe slight positive for D3, depending. For someone committed to E!Elk, sure seemed to favour staying on Bookwyrm, so kinda frowning on him.

Alv? Gut Village, thank frick there is one player here I vaguely feel I can read just a little.

Araris? Probably busy af but one good D1 vote. In all fairness, am not putting him with the quiets, but Bookwyrm focus is uncharacteristic, D1 doesn't seem to reflect his Elim doctrine so ok he can be Village for now.

Insanity? Opportunistic votes as all hell, continues to watch and lurk but says nothing. Sure, why not, could be Evil.

Tani? Still no response, sort of out of things. Gut Village on the basis of player profile, she says she flipped a coin between Mat and Wiz here because she wanted to participate. No idea why Mat / Wiz, possibly because 

Don't really read this as E, but you know, at this point, my reads are based on a wonderfully paper-thin frickin' basis, wow.

Turtle - Arguably in this territory but not. I'm not really inclined to give them too much credit for more than early N1 vote possibility analysis because they're not doing anything more, or anything with their 'three reads' so that's cheap. Sus padding vote D2, dgaf D1. Could be Evil, could be Village. Who knows? Certainly not me  Strangely enough, it is very hard to read people when you are running off fumes and the sound of an empty thread 

JNV? Disappeared from the thread by now, uncharacteristically declines any reads at all. Kind of want to V read them because E them has their crem together, but let's be real, that's an apathy clear, and I don't really want to push JNV and ML them after two games in a row, so the functional read is: "I Don't Know."

Xino? Hell knows. Weird af votes, apparently invested in staying alive despite not actually wanting to play the game.

Elk? Ok I've laid out my views on V!Elk, but I am coming round to E!Elk all over again because I don't understand reluctance to vote on Bookwyrm unless you think Bookwyrm is such a bad train, but then EoD shows complete indifference to all the trains. Sod knows. I'm going to go re-read and re-think yet again.

Anyone I'm forgetting? You're probably Evil then.

Edited November 28, 2022 by Kasimir

[Stick.]

11 hours ago, Ookla the Paragrapher said:

I'm just looking at the final VC, but there's something nuanced about not self pressing on the main wagon. If they weren't even at the time they voted, Xino was either consciously applying a read that led them to not vote Bookwyrm, or they smartly realized two big wagons are better than one. I'd have to look at the VC at their time of voting. But self pres is the free pass to pad a wagon, so it'd be interesting if they chose not to.

We haven't seen any vote manip play out yet - I will not be surprised if the elims have some in a E!Xino world. Also, keep in mind that they had cast this vote during the first half of the cycle, so they weren't in significant danger yet so I don't think choosing to not self-pres on the lead train is too odd. 

8 hours ago, Ookla the Forgotten said:

This was for the purposes of creating a tie 

Interesting - curious choice of wording there. Why say 'between TUN and Bookwyrm' and not 'between Mat, TUN, and Bookwyrm' since according to your votecount Mat was tied with Bookwyrm? That wording made it sound like you suspected Bookwyrm tbh

3 hours ago, Kasimir said:

@_Stick_ - Your thoughts on an E!Archer world? Not sure how I feel about it but something feels very wrong with the consistent thread death

I hadn't given much thought to Archer until this turn but since I've got some time I went through his posts - I don't think I wanna village read him, and I can actually see Archer decently paired with a couple of people. First I think E!Archer points to E!Turtle because of how Archer essentially shut down the discussion regarding Turtle early on in Day 1. Quickly looking through his posts, I find e-e potential between him and TUN too, because this post reads slightly performative given TUN's claim was obviously meant as a joke. I also believe xino/archer e/e is not a stretch, given him pushing my exe this cycle (this is defensive of xino, in a way) and him refusing to vote xino D1 upon Araris prompting him following his implied suspicion of xino.

And I also don't like people ignoring Alv. He hasn't given a single opinion that I can think of, and didn't see fit to vote last cycle. I'm not confident in reading Alv, but something's off.

Going through TUN's posts I see very few takes on people that aren't Szeth. If Szeth was the elim kill, I'd lean v!TUN since cuz if TUN is an elim it looks like he'd been aiming to ML Szeth, so NKing him doesn't make sense. But fwiw I don't think a v!Chana holder would kill Mat, and with the absence of redirects, I'm pretty sure Mat had to have been the elim kill. NKing Szeth makes little sense with me TUN and Archer all sussing him during the night turn. I feel slightly positive about TUN's personal goal of voting more in a more meaningful way that he brought up in D1 - it seems genuine to me. But also I don't know if that should be AI.

I need to take a look at JNV's posts at some point, and also chantera/insanity - I'd actually like it if Chana could go after one of these two next. 

I don't have a solid read on Shining yet, which is weird cuz I'm always suspicious of them otherwise. ._.

4 hours ago, Ookla the Debonair said:

As for Stick is there a tactical reason for E!Stick to constantly defend Bookwyrm D1 and N1? It's a strong enough move it would have to be intentional.

This is probably worthless coming from me but as an elim I try to village read as few players as possible because 1) e!me is overly cautious about appearing to have tmi, and 2) e!me likes to keep my options open when it comes down to voting in defense of a teammate. Also, voting wiz drew unnecessary attention to me which e!me does not benefit from, in fact it made me look bad.

 

edit: massively ninjad by kas edits

Edited November 28, 2022 by _Stick_

[Kasimir]

31 minutes ago, _Stick_ said:

We haven't seen any vote manip play out yet - I will not be surprised if the elims have some in a E!Xino world. Also, keep in mind that they had cast this vote during the first half of the cycle, so they weren't in significant danger yet so I don't think choosing to not self-pres on the lead train is too odd. 

Factually wrong. He self-presed slightly under two hours to rollover, as can be seen here:

31 minutes ago, _Stick_ said:

Interesting - curious choice of wording there. Why say 'between TUN and Bookwyrm' and not 'between Mat, TUN, and Bookwyrm' since according to your votecount Mat was tied with Bookwyrm? That wording made it sound like you suspected Bookwyrm tbh

This feels like a misunderstanding between the two of you. If you pay attention to his votecount, it includes his vote. It does make it seem like he suspects Bookwyrm insofar as he chose to put the vote on Bookwyrm rather than TUN, tying Bookwyrm with Mat (according to his votecount.) It's why I say the main world in which Xino's vote makes sense to me for E!Xino basically requires Xino to be Evil with TUN and probably voting in defense of TUN. But it'd also require a bunch of other mistakes or weird calculations to happen.

31 minutes ago, _Stick_ said:

and him refusing to vote xino D1 upon Araris prompting him following his implied suspicion of xino.

The one point I do appreciate and I think Araris raised it, or I'm just tripping by this stage, is that it's weird for E!Archer to offer to vote Xino with Araris and then sort of refuse to. We now know all three lead trains were Village: E!Archer has no reason not to vote on V!Xino. But then offering to vote E!Xino is equally weird: unless, I suppose, Archer makes the statement in response to Araris, and then Araris reads it as an offer but it's not intended as an offer. And then Archer declines to vote by taking the read back. Ok, I could sort of see that, yeah.

31 minutes ago, _Stick_ said:

And I also don't like people ignoring Alv. He hasn't given a single opinion that I can think of, and didn't see fit to vote last cycle. I'm not confident in reading Alv, but something's off.

IMO, it's fairly on-track with how he was playing in his more recent Village games.

Like...as I was saying, D1, Chana or Vedel and dear Force I hope it is Chana because Vedel has no excuse - put me in contact with three other players in PMs. Alv is one of them. My sense from Alv's willingness to solve when working with me is that I'm willing to cut him some slack for the moment, knowing how his playstyle is and his thoughts feel to me as though he's more Village. But that's where I am on Alv at the moment.

I don't rule out he could be Evil. But he's not where I'd shoot first.

31 minutes ago, _Stick_ said:

Going through TUN's posts I see very few takes on people that aren't Szeth. If Szeth was the elim kill, I'd lean v!TUN since cuz if TUN is an elim it looks like he'd been aiming to ML Szeth, so NKing him doesn't make sense. But fwiw I don't think a v!Chana holder would kill Mat, and with the absence of redirects, I'm pretty sure Mat had to have been the elim kill. NKing Szeth makes little sense with me TUN and Archer all sussing him during the night turn. I feel slightly positive about TUN's personal goal of voting more in a more meaningful way that he brought up in D1 - it seems genuine to me. But also I don't know if that should be AI.

Basically that. Archer insisting Szeth was consensus Village read is just weird to me.

I don't feel I have a strong read on TUN, and by this point in the game, I'm willing to take that as reason to go there. And NKing Mat and Illwei would've been within E!TUN's MO for kills, as Ash pointed out in LG90.

31 minutes ago, _Stick_ said:

This is probably worthless coming from me but as an elim I try to village read as few players as possible because 1) e!me is overly cautious about appearing to have tmi, and 2) e!me likes to keep my options open when it comes down to voting in defense of a teammate. Also, voting wiz drew unnecessary attention to me which e!me does not benefit from, in fact it made me look bad.

I would say it's probably worth cross-checking, but I don't fully disagree about the Wiz point - I just think that citing Bookwyrm's defense made it more palatable.

Question for you, Stick. Do you think V!Chana is likely at all?

31 minutes ago, _Stick_ said:

I need to take a look at JNV's posts at some point, and also chantera/insanity - I'd actually like it if Chana could go after one of these two next. 

I would agree, but abooouuut thaaaaaat... Chana maaaay be out of charges.

Edited to add 2: @_Stick_ I guess to be clear, I'm considering whether roleclearing Chana would be a mistake, given, you know, Beagle.

Edited November 28, 2022 by Kasimir
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