Long Game 91: A Fresh Start in Shinovar

[Mat]

Actually, of any post Cash has made this whole game, that one felt the most villagery to me.

[Kasimir]

30 minutes ago, Ookla the Omniscient said:

Apologies. "Hard evidence" wasn't really the right term -- it just feels like Cash is suggesting something that would take two cycles and might very possibly lead nowhere.

I mean, if you're Village and you know you're Village, that's at least one cycle that's going to lead nowhere...  

More generally, not a fan of Cash's plan in that I'm never a fan of pre-deciding a lynch. It just tells the Elims what they get to do the next Day and lets them slack off in thread. Our jobs are to make it as difficult and annoying for them to blend in as possible. 

Also, it helps that I suspect Xino more  

[Cash67]

4 hours ago, Ookla the Paragrapher said:

I think this is a great idea! But I have to insist on doing Elk first, since I suspect them more. Do you mind if we flip flop the order?

…. That’s more enthusiastic support than I was expecting, which now makes me a little concerned about going down that direction…. Especially since multiple others have sided somewhat against it for the reason of “it lets elims blend in”

Both choices make sense, but now we got a few things to hash out. 
 

such as @Ookla the Omniscient how confident are you that @Elkanah is a elim? Also vice Versa, wanna hear from Elk as well. If anyone else wants to chime in on this too go ahead

Edited November 26, 2022 by Cash67

[Szeth_Pancakes]

12 minutes ago, Cash67 said:

…. That’s more enthusiastic support than I was expecting, which now makes me a little concerned about going down that direction…. Especially since multiple others have sided somewhat against it for the reason of “it lets elims blend in”

Both choices make sense, but now we got a few things to hash out. 
 

such as @Ookla the Omniscient how confident are you that @Elkanah is a elim? Also vice Versa, wanna hear from Elk as well. If anyone else wants to chime in on this too go ahead

I’m fairly confident, but I have to do some more analysis on D2 before I decide if I want to exe them or not. And like people have been saying, me sussing Elk is a bit of a double standard

[Archer]

1 hour ago, Cash67 said:

…. That’s more enthusiastic support than I was expecting, which now makes me a little concerned about going down that direction…. Especially since multiple others have sided somewhat against it for the reason of “it lets elims blend in”

Both choices make sense, but now we got a few things to hash out. 
 

I'd characterize it more as the limiting of our options to a category that isn't as guaranteed to have an elim in it as you'd hope.

Anyway, I wasn't offering honest support. I just wanted to see if it was a ploy put out by e!you and e!Szeth. Your retraction looks villagery though, unless you went rouge with that plan and got told off by the elim doc. 

4 hours ago, Kasimir said:

I mean, if you're Village and you know you're Village, that's at least one cycle that's going to lead nowhere...  

I'm split between thinking that a village's first reaction should have been that any exing of them is bad and thinking that both alignments sometimes try to avoid pressure by using indirect defenses. I'm leaning towards suspecting e!Szeth for forgetting to consider that they might be a villager. 

[Cash67]

2 minutes ago, Ookla the Paragrapher said:

 

Anyway, I wasn't offering honest support. I just wanted to see if it was a ploy put out by e!you and e!Szeth. Your retraction looks villagery though, unless you went rouge with that plan and got told off by the elim doc. 

Yeah, my reaction to that was something along the lines of “I’ve got a bad feeling about this”…. Good play by you for both sides either to place suspicion on me or confirm me as an elim

[Turtle]

*lurks in ‘feels like they’re about to throw up’*

see yall d3 i hope i’ll feel better by then

[JNV]

Jen-child-Verin could feel the blood dripping from their hands. If they looked, they would see nothing. They knew this because they had looked down many times. The blood was thick, cloying. It dried on their hands. They had seen death before, of course. They had seen it far too often. It settled in their midst like an old cloak, tattered and worn and useless at keeping out the chill. But this was the first death that was their fault. They had accused Rizam-son-Azram. Yes, others had as well, but that did not lessen the burden of guilt. The blood had not come near them, had not even touched their hands, but they could feel it. It was red. It had been warm once. 

 

Ok so like I reread the game a lot right and I think I just ended up confused like everyones a blur and Im tired and its not even that late everyone feels like a blob of confusion like usually I have some irrational trusts and suspicions by now but we killed my irrational suspicion and Im just confused and I might go to sleep early honestly my brain is fuzz so heres a good night quokka sorry for low effort post today just not really feeling it at the moment just sorta fuzz 

Spoiler

 

[Szeth_Pancakes]

1 hour ago, Ookla the Paragrapher said:

I'm split between thinking that a village's first reaction should have been that any exing of them is bad and thinking that both alignments sometimes try to avoid pressure by using indirect defenses. I'm leaning towards suspecting e!Szeth for forgetting to consider that they might be a villager. 

I just don't like saying "since I'm a villager" because I'm trying to convince people and they don't have proof of that.

[Cash67]

Egg-son-Chicken was aghast. He was so sure that Rizam was a Turkari. He had been moving about alone, stealing away, but it was only so that he could dispose of some rotten food, not to deliver messages to the Raiders. As much as Egg tried to justify his reasoning, as much as his reasoning was justified, it did not change the fact that more innocent blood was shed. At least no Honorblades were stolen, but there should not be a cost placed on any human life. 

[Ashbringer]

2 hours left!

[Szeth_Pancakes]

[Kasimir]

4 hours ago, Ookla the Paragrapher said:

I'm split between thinking that a village's first reaction should have been that any exing of them is bad and thinking that both alignments sometimes try to avoid pressure by using indirect defenses. I'm leaning towards suspecting e!Szeth for forgetting to consider that they might be a villager. 

My mild V read on Szeth hinges on Szeth's D1 vote on Wiz. I don't find it plausible that E!Szeth sheeps me into a fifth vote on Wiz: an Elim should be aware that's suicidal, no matter what, and looks far too suspicious. He'd already poke voted TUN anyway and theoretically had no reason to need to make another vote. E!Szeth also is more meta-aware when writing posts, he just has a tendency to think that he can get away with meta-screwing.

I also do think Szeth's team was a bit too chill at EoD, given the likelihood Szeth was part of a tie and the fact that for all they know, Village vote manip was online.

There are several defeaters for my thoughts:

-You could argue Szeth is that sort of player who could just be careless and make that vote. I would agree, but I think that sort of carelessness is more likely from V!Szeth than E!Szeth. Szeth has that bit more experience than Bookwyrm to be counted on to realise the badness of that vote, and Elim docs tend to track votecounts more, so Szeth should've had access to that. Even in Szeth's first Elim game (QF54 - on a you/Araris team), Szeth was a bit more careful when making posts:

Quote

 

Hello everyone! Referring to my most recent post, I thought it was kind of mean-spirited to lie about that kinda thing, so I put a few completely truthful pieces in my post, and let everyone else infer the wrong conclusion.

Paranoid me thinks you didn’t need to apologize, and will now have a more difficult time voting for Ash if required, but it does explain away the questions you had coming about why you voted Ash so easily. So that’s good. I also have seen people say “oh, an elim wouldn’t make that kind of mistake; the elim doc would correct it,” so that’s the other reason.

Quote

 

This post is kind of risky, but from my experience, people tend to read this kind of thing pretty village.

I'm not sure this is the kind of thing that not playing SE for a while erodes. Those highlighted last lines do indicate Szeth has a tendency to metascrew, but I think AG8 should have shown that doesn't work very well; I will still take it as a partial defeater though.

-You could argue that QF54 and AG8 shows that E!Szeth has a tendency to just do suspicious things first and ask the doc later. (cf. E!Szeth making a genuinely suspicious PM response to V!Meerkat in a PM which started a chain of dominoes.) I do think later!E!Szeth has shown more tendency to solicit advice, especially not when under pressure. That being said, I'd accept that; I just intuitively think the badness of the fifth vote should have overridden even Szeth's impulses.

Quote

 

If I want to hop onto the Swan train, why should I say I’m suspicious? I need somebody more experienced with being evil to handle this ples Maybe I should just wait until later and vote on them “in the interest of self pres”

Would that work? [Kas note: This colour is E!Szeth.]

If you wait to vote on them for self preservation, you could vote on them for the same reason that me and Beagle have. That basically it doesn’t really make sense for them to make a reads list that puts multiple people as elim leaning and then just vote for a null read anyway.

and

Quote

 

Ok. Beagle, I think we need to jump off the Swan train before it runs us off the tracks and into the lake. Of my blood. What do you think is the best way to go about this?

Now that Flamingo has voted on Croc, you can vote on them to put Croc in the lead. Best to do that closer to the end of the turn, when it looks more like desperate self preservation. And Beagle probably shouldn’t also vote on Croc. Best not to incriminate two players

-YMMV.

I think the bottom line from this is that I lean mild V on Szeth and wouldn't go after him, but don't feel the confidence in defending this due to the defeaters and especially Szeth's tendency to miscalculate when metascrewing.

 

[Szeth_Pancakes]

I find it a bit funny that the thread is silent for two hours and the minute after I post about it Kas posts a textwall. About me. 

Edit: i mean it's not quite a textwall since a lot of it is quotes but *shrug*

Edited November 27, 2022 by Ookla the Omniscient

[Kasimir]

38 minutes ago, Ookla the Omniscient said:

I find it a bit funny that the thread is silent for two hours and the minute after I post about it Kas posts a textwall. About me. 

Edit: i mean it's not quite a textwall since a lot of it is quotes but *shrug*

I have less time since I started GMing  Docs to arrange, spreadsheets to neaten up, homework to do... But I wanted to respond to Archer's point which is that similar to Bookwyrm, I'm not feeling it but don't feel confident enough to push it.

Still fixed on Xino, also looking at Insanity.

Very, very tentative and mild V on TUN for now.

Am aware there's probably a talky Elim I'm missing but personally feel that we might be able to domino if we flip one Elim and buy V!Blades the time to use their actions wisely. My lead suspects would be Xino and Chantara the next day.

Edited to add:

For me, where I'm feeling Xino and Chantara comes down to peripherality in voting, and the sense they were fairly disengaged from the results. Which is theoretically true of most with regard to Bookwyrm, but even then, they made their votes. I do agree it's not really clear where Xino's suspicions are going, and while RL factors can confound, I especially take E!Xino to be more fundamentally disengaged in play than V!Xino (cf. LG90's Xino games study.) 

You could argue the way Xino hopped on and off the trains really fast, followed by Elk, was suspicious, but Elk has the benefit of having made the very last minute swap. (Which, again, could be Elim showboating, but I partly ascribe a very, very defeasible Village point to. I think this absolutely should be revised if necessary, but feel that Elk had been prepared to be the lethal vote on Bookwyrm before Alv, which is in my view a light positive. That vote simply would not have looked good, even had Elk been ready to fight it off.)

So that really just leaves Xino in the crosshairs for me. Similar low engagement issue for Chantara, disagree with Archer that the response feels good.

Edited to add 2:

FWIW if I die please send thoughts and prayers for Germany v. Spain which I will watch guilt-free <3 Die Mannschaft!

Edited November 27, 2022 by Kasimir

[Ashbringer]

Time! Rollover shortly. 

[Ashbringer]

LG91 Day 3: Both Had Belonged

Dazi-son-ron was a strange individual at best. The way he spoke... Shinovar had abandoned many of the ways of the Radiants, but those of the Heralds they kept. Their history, their blades, and their knowledge of the beings they fought. The Voidbringers were not supposed to return, even with many Heralds being among the living. Talat-son-God's sacrifice was to ensure that. But Dazi-son-ron gave many people memories of foes best left in the dark.

Then there was the one called Szeth. A curious name. Shin to a tee. Nearly too Shin. And yet, they rarely talked about their parents. Perhaps it was just closeness, perhaps it was a quickly made identity.

Regardless, one of these was found and divided. Another was attacked by a Tukari invader fought off. It was hard to tell which. Neither were seen again. And both had belonged to Earthen Truth.

 

Ookla the Tall / Matrim's Dice was killed! They were a member of the Shin High Council!

Ookla the Omniscient / Szeth_Pancakes was killed! They were a member of the Shin High Council!

 

The turn will end on November 28th at 11:00 PM PST. Am on a plane for most of tomorrow again, but will be around the 28th.

 

Player List:

Spoiler

1. @ookla the POKE VOTE / Turtle- Evelt-son-Urtal
2. @Araris Valerian - Hadrian-son-Penrod
3. @The Unknown Novel - Dali-son-Nar
4. The Wandering Wizard - Tweedle-son-son-Dumb - Shin High Council
5. Ookla the Tall / Matrim's Dice - Dazi-son-ron - Shin High Council
6. @JNV - Jen-child-Verin
7. Ookla the Perpetual / The Bookwyrm - Rizam-son-Azram - Shin High Council
8. @Shining Silhouette - Cheshire-son-Cat
9. @Ookla the Forgotten / xinoehp512 - Jet-son-Blanc
10. @Kasimir - Kvaseth-son-Wysan
11. @InfiniteInsanity
12. @Chantara
13. @_Stick_
14. @Cash67 - Egg-son-Chicken
15. Illwei - Shin High Council, Bearer of Paliah's Honorblade
16. @Archer - Tweedle-son-Dee
17. @Alvron - Izzy-daughter-Ammi
18. @Tani - Daalna
19. @Elkanah - Sun-son-son-Tsu
20. Ookla the Omnicient / Szeth_Pancakes - Shin High Council

 

[Kasimir]

Wonderful.

Look. I've had a few bad showings over the last few games, that's true.

Part of me really wants to scream in frustration because I bloody swear I've been saying until I'm blue in the face that I think these guys are Villagers. And I get my track record doesn't inspire confidence because I screwed the Village over in QF63.

BUT FOR FFS

FORFECKSBLOODYSAKE

Can we stop screwing around now???

Can we?

Please?

I s2g I am this done questioning myself.

Edited to add: Xino

Edited November 27, 2022 by Kasimir

[Stick.]

Xinoeph 

[Kasimir]

3 minutes ago, _Stick_ said:

Xinoeph 

>>

Why >>

[Stick.]

6 minutes ago, Kasimir said:

>>

Why >>

Wdym  Like I said I found their inconsistent stance on Bookwyrm odd.
I’m also willing to go Elk or Araris

[Kasimir]

5 minutes ago, _Stick_ said:

Wdym  Like I said I found their inconsistent stance on Bookwyrm odd.
I’m also willing to go Elk or Araris

It's no on Elk or Araris for me. Asterisked no for both, but their D1 voting patterns do not look Evil to me. Both of them willing to kill Bookwyrm, a notably bad train, prior to Alv's intervention. It's not indefeasible, but I prefer to look at players I lack any reason to think are Village at all at this juncture.

Edited to add:

15 hours ago, _Stick_ said:

Araris - Basically what others have already pointed out. I think that there's araris/elk e/e potential bc Elk was in danger of being exe'd last turn but the bookwyrm train ensured their safety. Will make note of Araris' defence of Cash for voting with illwei.

18 hours ago, Kasimir said:

Elk (2): Stick, Bookwyrm
Szeth (1): Kas
TUN (1): Archer
Bookwyrm (1): Araris

This just seems like a hinky comment to me and it raises my hackles. Araris voted Bookwyrm, then Bookwyrm voted Elk. Elk wasn't seriously in danger at that point. You can argue he deserves suspicion as a Bookwyrm train voter and I don't disagree, but in light of a good D1 vote, I'd prefer to be suspicious of others on the train. The order of priority is utterly wrong to theorise that Araris was voting in a manner protective of Elk, especially when it was in the early hours of the cycle.

Two other comments. I reserve full vote analysis for later, when I'm not gaming with Orlok and Wyrm.

18 hours ago, Kasimir said:

Elk (2): Bookwyrm, Szeth
Szeth (2): TUN, Stick
Bookwyrm (4): Araris, JNV, Turtle, Cash
Mat (1): Szeth
Xino (2): Kas, Insanity
Araris (2): Mat, Archer

Elk train at this juncture was pure. Makes you think. Elk was still not in danger, and the fact that Turtle and Cash pile onto Bookwyrm IMO should seem suspicious: Turtle votes Bookwyrm at a point when you, Elk, and Bookwyrm are tied, booting Bookwyrm to lead train. Cash then goes onto Bookwyrm shortly after, stacking the train further. It's a slightly good look for Cash, foiled by the lack of knowledge as to his experience levels, i.e. if he's an internal Bookwyrm, then this isn't exculpatory.

Elk is not in danger.

Then Xino comes and places a vote on Elk.

IMO if you believe your Araris/Elk E/E theory, then you pretty much have to look at <Turtle, Cash> and probably lean a bit V on Xino for actually turning the Elk train into a three vote train.

Quote

Elk (3): Bookwyrm, Szeth, Xino
Szeth (2): TUN, Stick
Bookwyrm (4): Araris, JNV, Turtle, Cash
Mat (1): Szeth
Xino (2): Kas, Insanity
Araris (2): Mat, Archer

This is a very close margin if Xino and Elk were paired, given that Alv could have turned it into a tie. But I don't want to hinge too much on this as Elk was lurking in thread close to EoD, meaning he could've self-presed but saw no need to. Still, I think it's worth highlighting. Your theories don't make coherent sense with where your suspicions are.

I'm tentatively ok with V!Elk and V!Araris right now, which is why Xino's late Elk vote shows up as sus.

Edited November 27, 2022 by Kasimir

[Stick.]

21 minutes ago, Kasimir said:

It's no on Elk or Araris for me. Asterisked no for both, but their D1 voting patterns do not look Evil to me. Both of them willing to kill Bookwyrm, a notably bad train, prior to Alv's intervention. It's not indefeasible, but I prefer to look at players I lack any reason to think are Village at all at this juncture.

Edited to add:

This just seems like a hinky comment to me and it raises my hackles. Araris voted Bookwyrm, then Bookwyrm voted Elk. Elk wasn't seriously in danger at that point. You can argue he deserves suspicion as a Bookwyrm train voter and I don't disagree, but in light of a good D1 vote, I'd prefer to be suspicious of others on the train. The order of priority is utterly wrong to theorise that Araris was voting in a manner protective of Elk, especially when it was in the early hours of the cycle.

Two other comments. I reserve full vote analysis for later, when I'm not gaming with Orlok and Wyrm.

Elk train at this juncture was pure. Makes you think. Elk was still not in danger, and the fact that Turtle and Cash pile onto Bookwyrm IMO should seem suspicious: Turtle votes Bookwyrm at a point when you, Elk, and Bookwyrm are tied, booting Bookwyrm to lead train. Cash then goes onto Bookwyrm shortly after, stacking the train further. It's a slightly good look for Cash, foiled by the lack of knowledge as to his experience levels, i.e. if he's an internal Bookwyrm, then this isn't exculpatory.

Elk is not in danger.

Then Xino comes and places a vote on Elk.

IMO if you believe your Araris/Elk E/E theory, then you pretty much have to look at <Turtle, Cash> and probably lean a bit V on Xino for actually turning the Elk train into a three vote train.

This is a very close margin if Xino and Elk were paired, given that Alv could have turned it into a tie. But I don't want to hinge too much on this as Elk was lurking in thread close to EoD, meaning he could've self-presed but saw no need to. Still, I think it's worth highlighting. Your theories don't make coherent sense with where your suspicions are.

I'm tentatively ok with V!Elk and V!Araris right now, which is why Xino's late Elk vote shows up as sus.

Those two reads aren’t transitive - I’m not saying that all three of them have to be elims, just that I have independent reasons to suspect each. I do agree that if elk flips E then Xino looks good, except elk has not flipped e yet. Instead of pursuing only one line of possibility I think it’s good to consider multiple. I think that Araris voting bookwyrm early could still point to e/e with elk, since you were already suspecting him of being too pushy of the bookwyrm train so hopping on the elk train would’ve been less suspicious- instead he stayed on bookwyrm for the entire turn. I’m not a hundred percent sold on all this but they’re possibilities I’m not discounting. My reasons to suspect Elk have nothing much to do with D2, but rather are more about D1 like I said in my post D2. 

[Kasimir]

Ninjaed by Stick so I'm posting here:

I want to at least partially redo the trains with the new flips:

D1:

18 hours ago, Kasimir said:

Mat (2): Insanity, Chantara
Wiz (5): Xino, Tani, Szeth, Elk, Stick
Bookwyrm (4): JNV, Wiz, Araris, Alv
Alv (2): Illwei, Cash
Szeth (3): TUN, Archer, Mat
Kas (1): Kas

We know there's high Elim involvement on D1. To recap, only <Silho, Turtle, Bookwyrm> didn't vote, and Bookwyrm flipped Village. This more or less entails that the Elims have to be in the blacks.

Ngl if I take my current credences, then the Elims have to be in <Insanity, Silho, Turtle, Chantara, Archer, TUN, Xino, Tani.> I don't know if that makes for a coherent team. I'm going to have to do more thinking. <Stick, Alv, Araris, JNV> as potential additions I guess, but I don't know. That doesn't feel very right to me.

D2:

18 hours ago, Kasimir said:

Elk (3): Bookwyrm, Szeth, Xino
Szeth (2): TUN, Stick
Bookwyrm (5): Araris, JNV, Turtle, Cash, Mat
Mat (1): Szeth
Xino (2): Kas, Insanity
Araris (1): Archer

IMO, Mat as the last voter late on the Bookwyrm train with low activity and Elk checking in seems to indicate to me that the Elims did not seriously feel a member was under threat. The closest candidate there is Elk, given that Elk was fairly close. I do wonder if this points to V!Xino insofar as that if Mat had joined on Xino instead, Xino could plausibly be endangered by Alv and late vote manip. Maybe that's reason to go elsewhere.

Much lower voter participation continues to point to Elim confidence in my view. Xino's vote on Elk could be taken as protective of Xino himself, or protective of Araris: I would at least flip Xino first. Xino's willingness to potentially endanger Elk at a close margin indicates Xino/Elk not E/E, which I shouldn't have had to say, but in light of their D1, matters.

This is the vc at the time of Xino's vote:

19 hours ago, Kasimir said:

Elk (3): Bookwyrm, Szeth, Xino
Szeth (2): TUN, Stick
Bookwyrm (4): Araris, JNV, Turtle, Cash
Mat (1): Szeth
Xino (2): Kas, Insanity
Araris (2): Mat, Archer

So we know Szeth is Village: self-pres is certainly possible, with Xino declining to self-pres on Bookwyrm despite having him as a sus the previous day. Slightly agreed with Stick that without knowing progression, that vote looks more sneaky than anything and feels sus to me.

Could theoretically be Xino also protecting Araris, but again, since Xino's movement is weird and Araris has a better D1, I'd rather flip Xino.

1 minute ago, _Stick_ said:

I think that Araris voting bookwyrm early could still point to e/e with elk, since you were already suspecting him of being too pushy of the bookwyrm train so hopping on the elk train would’ve been less suspicious- instead he stayed on bookwyrm for the entire turn.

Yeah, except that his D1 voting is really good. Again, sure, it's possible, but is it plausible? Araris was exceptionally willing to make a lethal tie-breaking vote late on Bookwyrm in the cycle. I disagree hopping on the Elk train would've been less suspicious - in light of criticism, it just looks really opportunistic, since Araris wasn't even mentioning suspicion of Elk anyway.

2 minutes ago, _Stick_ said:

Those two reads aren’t transitive - I’m not saying that all three of them have to be elims, just that I have independent reasons to suspect each.

Sure, but I think it's worth asking how your reads fit together into a coherent team. If they don't, then you should go with the one that carries the most weight.

3 minutes ago, _Stick_ said:

My reasons to suspect Elk have nothing much to do with D2, but rather are more about D1 like I said in my post D2. 

That's fine, my reasons to think V!Elk also come from D1.

[Archer]

I'm guessing Szeth was the NK. Some other working assumptions:
-Turtle is village because they had and volunteered they had a PM with Illwei.
-The person who made the PMs is village because they wasted one on the imminent NK target.
-Kas is village.
-Cash is village for their retraction of their scheme yesterday.
-Insanity and Araris aren't teamed with Xino because of their D1 votes. Xino's D1 vote on Elk means they're not paired either.
-I'm setting aside, not clearing, Alv/Elk and Chantara because I have reasons to lightly village read them.

This leaves Araris, TUN, JNV, Shining, Xino, Insanity, Stick, and Tani on my list of people I might vote.

Because of the Bookwyrm vote, I think we'll want to flip JNV eventually. I also see the logic behind a Xino push - and will note the high upside of an e!flip, especially if it turns out that those who have villagey roles are within the suspect pool that remains after that. 

But I'm most riled by Stick. Their previous votes are where I'd expect an elim's to be. They're also seem to be pretty independently minded, which implies a hidden agenda. Them starting every Day with a strong push but not engaging in the night talk is triggering my gut. 

Edit: ignore that last sentence, it's incorrect. 

Stick

Edited November 27, 2022 by Ookla the Paragrapher