Long Game 91: A Fresh Start in Shinovar

[Kasimir]

6 minutes ago, Ookla the Paragrapher said:

I forget what Jez is, but is there a way of identifying blade holders? Shaman gets information, so they should be discernable because that influences their activity. It's also a more important position to the game. Missing PMs or a Coinshot or any single blade ability is less seismic than the custom Shaman role. 

Gravitation is a target scan. It's the one that can potentially catch the NK in action. Only Jez has this. It's a watered down scanner, but I'd consider it more important than the Shaman.

Blade holders can be identified by Transformation, of which there are two Blades. Shalash and Battar. Unlike the Shaman, the Blade holders get to know exactly what Blades you carry.

35 minutes ago, Matrim's Dice said:

Tbf I don’t think e!Araris is a foregone conclusion or anything but kinda yeah

I don't think it is but I definitely think he should face pressure. Off the top of my head, same for Cash, Chantara, Silho - lots of Elim dgaf energy off those votes. Going to go back and redo the vote train analysis with the Bookwyrm data.

Edited to add: Tbh, Turtle not voting too.

Edited November 26, 2022 by Kasimir

[Ookla of Colors]

5 hours ago, Kasimir said:

>>

Araris

52 minutes ago, ookla the POKE VOTE said:

araris

deadwei is absolutely judging us and i look forward to reading the dead doc

You do know it's night, right?

[Mat]

I, Mat, have ooklad!

[The Unknown Ajah]

I have been Ooklafied. Unfortunately, my previous identity is Unknown (Novel).

[Kasimir]

Apologies in advance for the double post. There's a decent chance that someone else will have posted by the time I'm done with this, but if this isn't true, then RIP. This post is too long for me to feel alright with editing it in my previous one.

Day One: 

Spoiler

First vote is from me onto Stick. Nothing spectacular there.

Quote

Stick (1): Kas

Silho goes onto Mat next. Worth noting this vote will go on to be extraordinarily stable - it only goes off at EoD. Silho isn't interested in solving this cycle and felt no real sense of pressure. This, to me, stands out given that we know at least two to three of the final trains contained Villagers.

Quote

Stick (1): Kas
Mat (1): Silho

Two minutes later, Turtle doubles up the vote and apologises for it. The apology is a bit weird because that's not really the sort of thing people care about. Archer contends that's more V!Turtle. I think the defensiveness should be noted at the very least. Same issue with image again.

Quote

Stick (1): Kas
Mat (2): Silho, Turtle

Bookwyrm votes on Insanity. Kind of want to note this is a shift from how Bookwyrm has been playing LG90. Not sure what it portends. Wiz rolls a die and goes onto Chantara. Mat votes Archer, and Archer asks if Chantara wants to vote on Wiz with him. I generally like solicitation because of the confidence it displays. That said, Archer's vote is also very stable: it never shifts from Wiz throughout the entire Turn. So I believe it should be marked into our pool as well.

Quote

Stick (1): Kas
Mat (2): Silho, Turtle
Insanity (1): Bookwyrm
Chantara (1): Wiz
Archer (1): Mat
Wiz (1): Archer

Stick votes TUN because she saw him in the thread but noticed he hadn't yet posted. I feel it just reminds me of what Ash was doing in terms of checking for people who were maybe in docs early on instead of in the thread. So ok, keep an eye on TUN. Fair point from Illwei that it likely entails lurking Stick too.

Stick apparently has a Turtle/Mat E/E theory from this. I...okay, I sort of like this and I don't like that I like this. I like that she's thinking about that immediately (well, sort of immediately, as this is delayed post in the thread, and therefore cannot receive as much credit) but at the same time, I am not sure my gut is okay with Stick. I am going to bracket this for the moment.

Turtle unvotes Mat. No replacement. I don't really expect anything by it. I think it's worth noting there are no further votes from Turtle I can think of except a brief hop onto the pizza train. I think this should also immediately merit Turtle's inclusion into the suspect pool. 

Quote

Stick (1): Kas
Mat (1): Silho
Insanity (1): Bookwyrm
Chantara (1): Wiz
Archer (1): Mat
Wiz (1): Archer
TUN (1): Stick

 

Mat unvotes Archer.

Quote

Stick (1): Kas
Mat (1): Silho
Insanity (1): Bookwyrm
Chantara (1): Wiz
Wiz (1): Archer
TUN (1): Stick

Bookwyrm retracts from Insanity here. This is weird and I agree it's weird - I don't know that it is Evil weird, but Insanity hadn't even shown up when Bookwyrm retracted, and this is the pebble that starts the Bookwyrm obsession later on. This is sort of what I mean when I say Bookwyrm in this game has just been filed away in my head as Thaid because I can't make this make sense. [N2 Kas - yeah, it's Bookwyrm weirdness, but this gets Mat to jump onto him and starts the Bookwyrm attention.]

Mat's response is to pressure Insanity.

I see where Illwei is coming from: you'd expect the natural response there to be to pressure Bookwyrm, not Insanity, since the weird behaviour came from Bookwyrm and not Insanity. There are probably worlds in which E!Bookwyrm retracts from V!Insanity so you want to capture those too by directly applying pressure to the source of the weirdness. Mat's response doesn't make sense. [N2 Kas - This looks weirder now that Bookwyrm has flipped Village.]

Quote

Stick (1): Kas
Mat (1): Silho
Insanity (1): Mat
Chantara (1): Wiz
Wiz (1): Archer
TUN (1): Stick

Araris shows up and votes Alv but also:

@Araris Valerian - Who did you expect your poke vote strategy to entail suspicion of? All votes at this point in the thread are trains of one. [N2 Kas - Have not had an answer. Still want to know what Araris was on.]

Quote

Stick (1): Kas
Mat (1): Silho
Insanity (1): Mat
Chantara (1): Wiz
Wiz (1): Archer
Alv (1): Araris
TUN (1): Stick

 

Cash asking Araris if this was a gambit and Mat's muted response "Where?" is still odd. I still think that if you are a Villager, you should have more wariness than that if you believe the location is in question since the only other location is the Elim doc.

I unvote Stick and go to Mat.

Quote

Mat (2): Silho, Kas
Insanity (1): Mat
Chantara (1): Wiz
Wiz (1): Archer
Alv (1): Araris
TUN (1): Stick

Elk doubles up on Alv and insists on summoning Alv. This is something that continues later through the cycle, and Elk explains it as excitement to be playing with Alv again and wanting the chaos. I don't know.

In kayana world, it's protective of Mat. But I don't really buy this because it's very very early into the Day. No one should be feeling any pressure.

Quote

Mat (2): Silho, Kas
Insanity (1): Mat
Chantara (1): Wiz
Wiz (1): Archer
Alv (2): Araris, Elk
TUN (1): Stick

Szeth doubles up on TUN and asks why people are voting on Alv when Alv hasn't posted yet. Irony is blinding  Part of me feels like E!Szeth should've put more thought into it, part of me feels E!Szeth is prone to this kind of slip-up.

Quote

Mat (2): Silho, Kas
Insanity (1): Mat
Chantara (1): Wiz
Wiz (1): Archer
Alv (2): Araris, Elk
TUN (2): Stick, Szeth

Insanity responds with a retaliation vote on Mat. I feel we haven't heard much in the way of thoughts from Insanity, even now, and that this still doesn't really jive well with the more measured approach from her later on.

This is another vote worth noting because it never moved. Insanity did look at the thread subsequently.

Quote

Mat (3): Silho, Kas, Insanity
Insanity (1): Mat
Chantara (1): Wiz
Wiz (1): Archer
Alv (2): Araris, Elk
TUN (2): Stick, Szeth
Araris (1): TUN

Elk points out the fact that Mat is a lead train. There's some amount of ? that Elk is even flagging this - it's still early in the cycle, so Elk shouldn't really have reason to feel too concerned at this juncture.

TUN votes Araris in defense of Alv. This IMO is an extremely uncharacteristic vote from TUN, who repeatedly defends voting only with good reasons because he'd rather be sure and hit an Elim than not. This is odd to me because this policy is something TUN also highlights later on! One thing I could see is it being a TUN joke vote. It sort of has that kind of attitude. Maybe. Even with TUN's new playstyle shift, I'm not sure this vote quite makes sense to me.

Mat has e!Kas gut but doesn't want to vote. I have E!Mat credences, so I guess there we go.

Elk also says he doesn't mind getting D1ed, which, ok, fair, I read in a slightly Village light similar to MR59 Conq, but also probably shouldn't, so I can degrade that credence a bit. Even then, I still like that I suppose. He looks at the train and decides the votes aren't suspicious, which makes me feel a bit ? because...shouldn't you have made that determination before calling out the train? Dislike this softwalking here.

Bookwyrm comes in again with a vote that is opportunistic as all hell, on Mat, at a point when there are three votes on Mat and when I have expressed suspicion of Mat and I nearly reflex-unvoted off how awful that vote just seemed to be. This starts the E!Bookwyrm problem that carries on all the way to D2 and at last we have peace. Praise the Light.

 

Quote

Mat (4): Silho, Kas, Insanity, Bookwyrm
Insanity (1): Mat
Chantara (1): Wiz
Wiz (1): Archer
Alv (2): Araris, Elk
TUN (2): Stick, Szeth
Araris (1): TUN

In response to that, JNV votes on Bookwyrm. It's a typical JNV vote, IMO, no matter their alignment. 

Elk agrees the Bookwyrm vote is suspicious but is currently committed to summoning Alv. Potential reluctance to vote Bookwyrm might be explained by awareness train is LHF IMO.

Szeth unvotes TUN.

Wiz agrees Bookwyrm seems off and votes Bookwyrm as well.

Quote

Mat (4): Silho, Kas, Insanity, Bookwyrm
Insanity (1): Mat
Wiz (1): Archer
Alv (1): Elk
TUN (1): Stick
Araris (1): TUN
Bookwyrm (3): JNV, Wiz, Araris

In an E!Mat world, the Bookwyrm train should be instantly worth noting. It's an extremely fast CW that arises as soon as Mat obtains four votes.

Araris goes from Alv to Bookwyrm. In retrospect, I agree with the claim it's too careful - I dislike the disclaimer I flagged. [N2 Kas - I don't disagree with Araris but I feel he is overstating it.]

On 11/22/2022 at 3:18 AM, Elkanah said:

 Not usually

I realize this thread is exploding like an egg in a microwave, but I'd really like to hear more about this. I don't think Mat suspecting people of working together is indicative of him being Tukari. I recognize that Kas has experience, other reasons, and a little trauma that support his suspicion; but do you have any support for this other than that Kas is suspicious of him? Please feel free to take the time you need to catch up on the thread, but I'm eager to know if there is more to this.

Being a bit blunt, this is the most suspicious post I've seen this game and there's not a lot in it. It feels like you were looking for an opportunity to be present in thread and solidify a lynch without being noticed. You are currently my top suspect and I might vote for you if we ever hear from Alvron. 

I don't disagree with what Mat was doing here. I also see this as odd, and yeah I know I've flagged it before and you've responded, Elk, but I am currently doing a re-read and just dumping thoughts as this goes along. Hesitancy to vote top suspect over desire to hear from Alv is just odd. It's more pronounced by the fact that Elk was away for a while and therefore never touched the Bookwyrm train until the end. This feels a bit explainable by TMI and awareness that this will look very bad when Bookwyrm flips Village. Bookwyrm in my view is only either extremely obviously Evil or lynchbait - no in between about it.

Xino shows up and votes Bookwyrm:

Quote

Mat (4): Silho, Kas, Insanity, Bookwyrm
Insanity (1): Mat
Wiz (1): Archer
Alv (1): Elk
TUN (1): Stick
Araris (1): TUN
Bookwyrm (4): JNV, Wiz, Araris, Xino

Araris later flags this as odd. I think it's worth calling out because this spurs Elk to follow Xino onto Bookwyrm: he shifts off Alv to save Mat, voting Bookwyrm. Except...this isn't even anywhere near the halfway mark. Why the urgency? And why such a strong read early?

Quote

Mat (4): Silho, Kas, Insanity, Bookwyrm
Insanity (1): Mat
Wiz (1): Archer
TUN (1): Stick
Araris (1): TUN
Bookwyrm (5): JNV, Wiz, Araris, Xino, Elk

This gives Bookwyrm a five vote monopoly. On a Villager. I am not sure the train at that juncture is reasonably pure.

I unvote Mat because I believe he's back to ascribing bad things to my being unwilling to give my reasons upfront, and I see that as more likely to come from V!Mat.

Quote

Mat (3): Silho, Insanity, Bookwyrm
Insanity (1): Mat
Wiz (1): Archer
TUN (1): Stick
Araris (1): TUN
Bookwyrm (5): JNV, Wiz, Araris, Xino, Elk

Xino then decides he wants another train, and hops from Bookwyrm to Wiz. This theoretically keeps Mat safe, and was meant to put more pressure on Wiz. @Ookla the Forgotten, you say you wanted to pressure Wiz. What about him did you feel was sus?

Quote

Mat (3): Silho, Insanity, Bookwyrm
Insanity (1): Mat
Wiz (2): Archer, Xino
TUN (1): Stick
Araris (1): TUN
Bookwyrm (4): JNV, Wiz, Araris, Elk

@Araris Valerian, you mentioned your thoughts on Elims sometimes jumping onto a teammate's train to explode it in order to scare people off. I am curious as to your thoughts on the sudden surge and just as sudden deflation of the Bookwyrm train. [N2 - Still curious.]

Elk returns to his obsession with summoning Alv  A quick step off Bookwyrm and onto Wiz. Three way tie more important than saving Mat, I guess. I don't know if this feels right: this puts Elk on two bad trains, IMO. And has him follow Xino twice now, for no apparent reason.

Quote

Mat (3): Silho, Insanity, Bookwyrm
Insanity (1): Mat
Wiz (3): Archer, Xino, Elk
TUN (1): Stick
Araris (1): TUN
Bookwyrm (3): JNV, Wiz, Araris

Elk still flagging the two votes on Mat as weird is just...weird in and of itself. Put this in context: early in D1, Elk flags a train on Mat as 'interesting' and doesn't really look into it, looks and then expects it to dissolve, and then gets suspicious when it doesn't dissolve but also feels the votes are not especially indicative. I don't know if this is a meta clash, or if this is Elk trying to fish for suspicions and returning to the Mat train. I say this despite also thinking vote stability is odd on Silho's and Insanity's parts, so I know that's odd. I just sort of feel that Elk has two main things he's fixed on at this point in the game: Mat train and making Alv appear, and cuts Bookwyrm quite a bit of ice. Which I do approve of, I just feel ehhhhh about it.

I guess I would say I'm not suspicious because I expect it to dissolve - I'm suspicious because I expect there to be at least a few parked votes. IDK man maybe I'm just overthinking this and I should stick with V!Elk. Ffs.

Bookwyrm replies and unvotes Mat.

Quote

Mat (2): Silho, Insanity
Insanity (1): Mat
Wiz (3): Archer, Xino, Elk
TUN (1): Stick
Araris (1): TUN
Bookwyrm (3): JNV, Wiz, Araris

Elk declines to vote Bookwyrm off one sketchy post, which, ok, but also...D1. But he did want to hear Bookwyrm out, which fair, but you can sort of do that with a retractable vote as well. I don't feel this leans very strongly one way or another, but this is just me thinking that marked reluctance to vote Bookwyrm is still suspicious, either way you slice it.

I vote for Chantara instead, who I've seen lurking. By this point, Bookwyrm in a tie with Wiz. Notable that both Bookwyrm and Wiz are Villagers, meaning the Elims should not be facing very much pressure at this juncture.

Quote

Mat (2): Silho, Insanity
Insanity (1): Mat
Wiz (3): Archer, Xino, Elk
TUN (1): Stick
Araris (1): TUN
Bookwyrm (3): JNV, Wiz, Araris
Chantara (1): Kas

Archer posts indicating willingness to vote for Xino but doesn't actually vote for Xino. This is what I mean by Archer's vote also being incredibly stable - random voting is a D1 sort of reason. D1 p1. That vote doesn't move despite Archer saying, in response to Araris's post on Xino:

On 11/22/2022 at 4:44 AM, Archer said:

I like this premise. I'll happily vote Xino for playing to the VC not their suspicions 

Archer has explained this, but I think it's still worth flagging it anyway.

 

Araris agrees to vote Xino and swaps off Bookwyrm.

Quote

Mat (2): Silho, Insanity
Insanity (1): Mat
Wiz (3): Archer, Xino, Elk
TUN (1): Stick
Araris (1): TUN
Bookwyrm (2): JNV, Wiz
Chantara (1): Kas
Xino (1): Araris

This begins a temporary dissolution of the Bookwyrm train.

TUN unvotes Araris for moving off Alv.

Quote

Mat (2): Silho, Insanity
Insanity (1): Mat
Wiz (3): Archer, Xino, Elk
TUN (1): Stick
Bookwyrm (2): JNV, Wiz
Chantara (1): Kas
Xino (1): Araris

Illwei votes Alv on the basis of his Chana Elk deal.

Quote

Mat (2): Silho, Insanity
Insanity (1): Mat
Wiz (3): Archer, Xino, Elk
TUN (1): Stick
Bookwyrm (2): JNV, Wiz
Chantara (1): Kas
Xino (1): Araris
Alv (1): Illwei

Still maintain that Illwei cannot deal with Chaos!Silho but I agree that Silho was not being productively chaotic D1. Hopefully we'll get something more out of Silho. I think it's high time Silho faces more pressure.

Chantara votes for TUN because she feels the thread PMs might be a way for the Elims to redirect suspicion. Which...sort of yes, but that's why Illwei was hypothesising E!Silho? And it's odd in light of the fact the Silho/Turtle thread PMs were what was attracting attention in the first place. She cites difficulty keeping up with the thread subsequently. I feel your pain, Chantara, I really do. But given at least two lead trains were Village, I feel this is a place/candidate for Elim dgaf energy - appear engaged, but not actually have to place a vote on a lethal Villager-targeting train.

A point in Chantara's favour might be the fact that it makes the train a two-vote train, but eh. Still not lethal.

Quote

Mat (2): Silho, Insanity
Insanity (1): Mat
Wiz (3): Archer, Xino, Elk
TUN (2): Stick, Chantara
Bookwyrm (2): JNV, Wiz
Chantara (1): Kas
Xino (1): Araris
Alv (1): Illwei

I shift from Chantara to joining the three vote train on Wiz. RIP. Szeth sheeps me six minutes later onto Wiz.

Quote

Mat (2): Silho, Insanity
Insanity (1): Mat
Wiz (5): Archer, Xino, Elk, Kas, Szeth.
TUN (2): Stick, Chantara
Bookwyrm (2): JNV, Wiz
Xino (1): Araris
Alv (1): Illwei

I think this looks a bit good for Szeth. I can't see a reason E!Szeth would do something this kayana, quite frankly. There's just no train or threat that would explain it, not with Bookwyrm and TUN and Mat tied in second place, with or without him sheeping me onto Wiz. Five votes and sheeping is asking for trouble, one way or another. Mild Village points for Szeth.

TUN votes Szeth for sheeping. I don't have a particular read on this: it's an easy call to make.

Quote

Mat (2): Silho, Insanity
Insanity (1): Mat
Wiz (5): Archer, Xino, Elk, Kas, Szeth.
TUN (2): Stick, Chantara
Bookwyrm (2): JNV, Wiz
Xino (1): Araris
Alv (1): Illwei
Szeth (1): TUN

Mat goes onto Bookwyrm.

Quote

Mat (2): Silho, Insanity
Wiz (5): Archer, Xino, Elk, Kas, Szeth.
TUN (2): Stick, Chantara
Bookwyrm (3): JNV, Wiz, Mat
Xino (1): Araris
Alv (1): Illwei
Szeth (1): TUN

This was apparently bait for Elk. I don't really dislike this too much since we now know Bookwyrm flipped Village. I don't have a strong read on this I guess.

I shift from Wiz to Alv - didn't super like this, but felt that the more chaotic games Alv linked were games in which he still displayed some pro-Village tendencies, and so wasn't sure if that was much of a defense. Also didn't like that Alv hadn't called Archer out on the incredibly fast and pointless clear. Shortly after, Stick joins the Szeth train for that early TUN vote.

Quote

Mat (2): Silho, Insanity
Wiz (4): Archer, Xino, Elk, Szeth.
TUN (1): Chantara
Bookwyrm (3): JNV, Wiz, Mat
Xino (1): Araris
Alv (2): Illwei, Kas
Szeth (2): TUN, Stick

And I am still only on p9 of this Almighty-forsaken thread. Every day takes us further from God. I wander in a wasteland of barren boughs and broken stones. If I touch them, they bleed. Is it that I am dying?

Szeth unvotes Wiz, and Chantara unvotes TUN. I feel like the quality of my analysis is degrading at this point and I haven't even highlighted the votes yet. In between the two is the post of Archer's that mystifies me:

On 11/23/2022 at 4:17 AM, Archer said:

I feel bad about it to so I'm gonna steal the Alv-Wiz e-e theory as my justification, stemming from that Alv sussing me post being possibly a defence of Wiz. 

I still think this is weird as all hell, seeing that Alv didn't at any point sus Archer, and the post in which he does mention suspicions quotes this post of Archer's, so cannot be a response. I'd almost derpclear Archer for this, but I remember E!Archer is capable of just dgaf dashing things off, so I don't think I will be doing so. Changes his mind about Xino in a sudden turnaround and declines to vote Xino, deciding it's not weird for Xino. IDK about that. Extremely stable vote deserves to be called out, one way or another.

Quote

Mat (2): Silho, Insanity
Wiz (3): Archer, Xino, Elk
Bookwyrm (3): JNV, Wiz, Mat
Xino (1): Araris
Alv (2): Illwei, Kas
Szeth (2): TUN, Stick

Bookwyrm and Wiz are back in the lead as ties. Cash subsequently also decides he likes ties and goes onto Alv. It's worth noting IMO that since Wiz and Bookwyrm are both Village, I do think that it looks better that Cash didn't go full side-train, but not entirely so. In an E!Cash world, it's more or less guaranteed V!Alv. The stability of Cash's vote sticks out to me as well.

Anyway, vc at this point:

Quote

Mat (2): Silho, Insanity
Wiz (3): Archer, Xino, Elk
Bookwyrm (3): JNV, Wiz, Mat
Xino (1): Araris
Alv (3): Illwei, Kas, Cash
Szeth (2): TUN, Stick

Three way tie.

This post from TUN strikes me as odd: he says he's willing to vote if there are good reasons, but uh...the reasons this game aren't actually better than those of other D1s. TUN's two votes have been for sheeping or for trying to kill Alv. The latter's not substantively better, and the former is probably qualitatively the same as any D1 vote. I'm not sure how TUN is fine with this since he usually keeps saying he'd rather get things right than deal with uncertainty. I don't know. I agree that he's definitely more willing to vote, and generally feel he has had to lower his standards at least partially.

Szeth has a crack theory I'm Evil, and I encourage Szeth to vote for me. That's about it. Explained it, don't want to relitigate this.

Turtle temporarily votes me for the pizza and then retracts. I've mentioned that I feel Turtle's lobbying not to get me lynched is just kinda performative because Turtle can easily influence that by breaking the tie but doesn't want to. I solicit Alv onto the pizza train for more pizza.

Archer votes Szeth for tie-chasing. Which, ok, fair. Tani RNGed and voted Wiz. Four way tie. 

Quote

Mat (1): Insanity
Wiz (3): Xino, Elk, Tani
Bookwyrm (3): JNV, Wiz, Mat
Xino (1): Araris
Alv (2): Illwei, Cash
Szeth (3): TUN, Stick, Archer
Kas (3): Szeth, Kas, Alv

Silho unvotes Mat, but doesn't do anything else. In light of the fact that at least 3/4 of the lead trains (from my perspective) were Village, that's a remarkable amount of potentially Elim dgaf energy there in my view.

Araris breaks the tie. IMO, this is mildly positive: it violates E!Araris's doctrine. I don't know if E!Araris cares enough to break the tie - I feel like there's an argument that he just might, out of principle, but I also feel that he gains very little from it. I am squinting but mildly willing to ascribe a bit of V points to Araris for this.

...Or I'm desperate and just want my fellow Grumpy Bro to be Village, what can I say, sometimes life do be like that.

Quote

Mat (1): Insanity
Wiz (3): Xino, Elk, Tani
Bookwyrm (4): JNV, Wiz, Mat, Araris
Alv (2): Illwei, Cash
Szeth (3): TUN, Stick, Archer
Kas (3): Szeth, Kas, Alv

Mat swaps off Bookwyrm to Szeth, mentioning it was partly bait for Elk, and also that he'd take an Elk or Cash wagon. Don't see too much incentive for E!Mat to care, though killing Szeth probably looks a tad better than killing Bookwyrm. Still. It's thankless and puts him on the lead train. I don't know I think that makes too much sense here.

Quote

Mat (1): Insanity
Wiz (3): Xino, Elk, Tani
Bookwyrm (3): JNV, Wiz, Araris
Alv (2): Illwei, Cash
Szeth (4): TUN, Stick, Archer, Mat
Kas (3): Szeth, Kas, Alv

This puts Szeth solidly in the lead.

Chantara declines to get involved, so votes Mat. Feels potentially like a vote radiating Elim dgaf energy to me as well.

Quote

Mat (2): Insanity, Chantara
Wiz (3): Xino, Elk, Tani
Bookwyrm (3): JNV, Wiz, Araris
Alv (2): Illwei, Cash
Szeth (4): TUN, Stick, Archer, Mat
Kas (3): Szeth, Kas, Alv

Szeth preserves a tie but also self-preses onto Wiz. Given that both Bookwyrm and Wiz are Villagers, this doesn't functionally matter anymore. Self-pres isn't very AI so it doesn't matter in this context with regard to Szeth's alignment.

This gets us:

Quote

Mat (2): Insanity, Chantara
Wiz (3): Xino, Elk, Tani
Bookwyrm (3): JNV, Wiz, Araris
Alv (2): Illwei, Cash
Szeth (4): TUN, Stick, Archer, Mat
Kas (2): Kas, Alv

Alv votes Bookwyrm in order to force a three way tie. Anyone who knew Alv was playing this game should have seen this coming.

Quote

Mat (2): Insanity, Chantara
Wiz (4): Xino, Elk, Tani, Szeth
Bookwyrm (4): JNV, Wiz, Araris, Alv
Alv (2): Illwei, Cash
Szeth (4): TUN, Stick, Archer, Mat
Kas (1): Kas

One minute later, Elk votes on Bookwyrm as well, and unvotes Wiz, which Alv moves to counter. I will say that being willing to vote Bookwyrm here is a good look for Elk, since potentially a Bookwyrm flip would look awful for Elk. This is half-taken back by non-indicative tie chasing.

Quote

Mat (2): Insanity, Chantara
Wiz (3): Xino, Tani, Szeth
Bookwyrm (5): JNV, Wiz, Araris, Alv, Elk
Alv (2): Illwei, Cash
Szeth (4): TUN, Stick, Archer, Mat
Kas (1): Kas

Which means:

Quote

Mat (2): Insanity, Chantara
Wiz (4): Xino, Tani, Szeth, Alv
Bookwyrm (4): JNV, Wiz, Araris, Elk
Alv (2): Illwei, Cash
Szeth (4): TUN, Stick, Archer, Mat
Kas (1): Kas

Basically the scene in Revenge of the Sith where Obi-Wan and Anakin exchange lightsabers while grappling and fight with each other's blades for a bit.

K, frankly I'm not going to track the last few moves, it's Elk and Alv hopping to and fro trying to preserve the tie. It's interesting to me that Elk's commitment to his biggest suspect, Bookwyrm, never really stays and he prefers the tie in the end.

Stick votes Wiz and ensures the exe goes through. Final trains:

Quote

Mat (2): Insanity, Chantara
Wiz (5): Xino, Tani, Szeth, Alv, Elk, Stick
Bookwyrm (4): JNV, Wiz, Araris, Alv
Alv (2): Illwei, Cash
Szeth (3): TUN, Archer, Mat
Kas (1): Kas

Given the rampant disorganisation between Elk/Alv/Stick, I'd potentially argue at least the three of them are not teamed, which is not very helpful, but there you go.

I think it is worth also looking at the list of non-voters: <Turtle, Silho, Bookwyrm> - we now know Bookwyrm is Village. I wouldn't be too surprised if one of <Turtle, Silho> is Evil due to low Elim investment in D1 EoD, but that seems to indicate that it is highly unlikely the trains were pure. So we can go back and look at the trains to try to ID where our Elims are. But first, on to D2.

Day Two:

Spoiler

Stick opens the voting on Elk. I don't disagree with this take, FWIW. Some of the issues with Elk bother me as well. I vote Szeth to branch out and keep voting broad, rather than doubling up on Elk, despite also being fine with an Elk lynch. Archer votes TUN.

Quote

Elk (1): Stick
Szeth (1): Kas
TUN (1): Archer

Meanwhile, Araris votes Bookwyrm. And Bookwyrm joins Stick on Elk, booting Elk to lead train.

Quote

Elk (2): Stick, Bookwyrm
Szeth (1): Kas
TUN (1): Archer
Bookwyrm (1): Araris

Szeth votes for Mat on...gut? There's an exchange with Mat which yeah, I agree, reads like they're not teamed. And then TUN votes Szeth because:

On 11/25/2022 at 10:21 AM, Ookla the Unknown said:

None of my reasons for voting Szeth have been resolved, and there have been several more to increase my suspicion, so I put my vote on him. And the thread felt too quiet, so I voted to hopefully generate some activity. Although now that I look at it, it isn't too bad, but my first point still stands.

Explained here:

20 hours ago, Ookla the Unknown said:

@Kasimir, here's the reasons you asked for.

My initial reason for my Szeth vote was him blatantly sheeping you, which now that I think of it is really blatant for an elim, but then his withdrawal and subsequent excuse seemed contrived. 

Then his posts, especially his first few, n1 rubbed me the wrong way. I also happen to agree with Mat that his self vote feels odd to me, but I can't really fault a person for self voting. But then him asking if I was offering food was weird as well, like he thought that copying you would make him seem more villagery.

This ties Szeth with Elk. If Elk is E, worth coming back to.

Quote

Elk (2): Stick, Bookwyrm
Szeth (2): Kas, TUN
TUN (1): Archer
Bookwyrm (1): Araris
Mat (1): Szeth

Szeth is bribed into self-voting. I shift to Xino, because I think I want to pressure Xino. I expect part of this was related to the backreading I did and noticing Xino lurking in thread.

Quote

Elk (2): Stick, Bookwyrm
Szeth (2): TUN, Szeth
TUN (1): Archer
Bookwyrm (1): Araris
Mat (1): Szeth
Xino (1): Kas

JNV votes Bookwyrm. IMO, I wouldn't E!read JNV for this insofar as I feel JNV has a tendency to get caught on these sorts of players. More NAI for me at this juncture. The Bookwyrm train is introduced into the three-way tie.

Quote

Elk (2): Stick, Bookwyrm
Szeth (2): TUN, Szeth
TUN (1): Archer
Bookwyrm (2): Araris, JNV
Mat (1): Szeth
Xino (1): Kas

Because Elk is MIA apparently, Stick swaps to making Szeth the lead train. My brain wants to consider an Elk/Stick E/E world and finds it mildly possible if weird in light of EoD D1 - but Elk and Alv definitely not teamed at least. Mat then votes TUN.

Quote

Elk (1): Bookwyrm
Szeth (3): TUN, Szeth, Stick
TUN (2): Archer, Mat
Bookwyrm (2): Araris, JNV
Mat (1): Szeth
Xino (1): Kas

Probably sensing danger, Szeth swaps off himself and goes onto Elk.

Quote

Elk (2): Bookwyrm, Szeth
Szeth (2): TUN, Stick
TUN (2): Archer, Mat
Bookwyrm (2): Araris, JNV
Mat (1): Szeth
Xino (1): Kas

A three way tie ensues. I do want to say it looks good for now that he isn't self-pressing on Bookwyrm - it would guarantee him survival and is NAI. To be sure, at this point of voting, he only has a 1/4 chance of death, so it doesn't matter too much, but still.

Archer swaps from TUN to Stick. Which Mat sheeps >> Turtle then votes Bookwyrm, booting Bookwyrm to lead train. Noteworthy if Stick flips E, I think. But also potentially protective of Elk.

Quote

Elk (2): Bookwyrm, Szeth
Szeth (2): TUN, Stick
Bookwyrm (3): Araris, JNV, Turtle
Mat (1): Szeth
Xino (1): Kas
Stick (2): Archer, Mat

Shortly after, Cash goes onto Bookwyrm, stacking the train. Here, I will agree this is a good look - E!Cash has no real reason to go on this train. It's subdued because as a newer player, Cash can expect some leniency for jumping onto a LHF train.

Quote

Elk (2): Bookwyrm, Szeth
Szeth (2): TUN, Stick
Bookwyrm (4): Araris, JNV, Turtle, Cash
Mat (1): Szeth
Xino (1): Kas
Stick (2): Archer, Mat

Mat swaps to Araris, after Archer suggests it. Archer joins him. Same difference.

Quote

Elk (2): Bookwyrm, Szeth
Szeth (2): TUN, Stick
Bookwyrm (4): Araris, JNV, Turtle, Cash
Mat (1): Szeth
Xino (1): Kas
Araris (2): Mat, Archer

Insanity shows up and sheeps me onto Xino. Feels like the territory for a dgaf vote again.

Quote

Elk (2): Bookwyrm, Szeth
Szeth (2): TUN, Stick
Bookwyrm (4): Araris, JNV, Turtle, Cash
Mat (1): Szeth
Xino (2): Kas, Insanity
Araris (2): Mat, Archer

I am not sure about how I feel on Xino's vote on Elk. It also doesn't really grab attention, and is a side-train, which seems a tad opportunistic, given Elk largely followed Xino on earlier votes.

Quote

Elk (3): Bookwyrm, Szeth, Xino
Szeth (2): TUN, Stick
Bookwyrm (4): Araris, JNV, Turtle, Cash
Mat (1): Szeth
Xino (2): Kas, Insanity
Araris (2): Mat, Archer

Mat moves to seal the Bookwyrm train against interference. It's fine, I just couldn't make myself do it.

Quote

Elk (3): Bookwyrm, Szeth, Xino
Szeth (2): TUN, Stick
Bookwyrm (5): Araris, JNV, Turtle, Cash, Mat
Mat (1): Szeth
Xino (2): Kas, Insanity
Araris (1): Archer

This is the end train. No vote manip. Let's take a look at who didn't vote: <Elk, Silho, Chantara, Alv, Tani.>

Again, I think it's plausible that at least one Elim is in this pool. Too little at stake, with the Bookwyrm train. Xino's Elk vote comes very late, which suggests that Elk isn't exactly exonerated.

Analysis:

Putting D1 and D2 together, we want to look and identify where our likely Elims might be. To do this, I'm going to do the crude method of ruling out anyone who I have even some reason to think is Village:

D1: <Archer, Silho, Turtle, Insanity, Cash, Chantara> are in the pool for vote stability and raw dgaf energy. <Elk, Stick, Alv> are ruled out for the EoD dance: it's technically NAI for Alv, and he's in the grey zone for me, but instinct tells me it doesn't make too much sense for E!Alv. Stick risks looking bad for forcing the Wiz vote through, while Elk technically has no reason to care. (I do still suspect Elk, so maybe asterisk him. My strategy right now is to rule out anyone I have even some reason to think is Village after all!)

Quote

Mat (2): Insanity, Chantara
Wiz (5): Xino, Tani, Szeth, Alv, Elk, Stick
Bookwyrm (4): JNV, Wiz, Araris, Alv
Alv (2): Illwei, Cash
Szeth (3): TUN, Archer, Mat
Kas (1): Kas

Looking at this again, I am not sure the Wiz or Bookwyrm trains are pure. The Wiz train is most unlikely to be pure, just out of sheer weight of numbers.

Of <Xino, Tani, Szeth, Alv, Elk, Stick> - I think Elk and Stick can be temporarily subtracted for EoD. I still sort of want to V!read Alv, and I feel that Szeth's mid-Day vote makes no real sense for E!Szeth. So this narrows my suspect pool down to <Xino, Tani> - I'd probably favour Xino first.

The Bookwyrm train might not be pure either, but I have difficulty reconciling Araris's vote with V!Araris, and kind of want to V!read Alv and JNV, so this leaves me in trouble. If the train is pure, then I don't really have a working Elim team composition I can think of if I am going with V!Archer and V!Mat as well. Anyway that's a side-issue for now.

Quote

Elk (3): Bookwyrm, Szeth, Xino
Szeth (2): TUN, Stick
Bookwyrm (5): Araris, JNV, Turtle, Cash, Mat
Mat (1): Szeth
Xino (2): Kas, Insanity
Araris (1): Archer

D2: <Elk, Silho, Chantara, Alv, Tani.> Again, raw dgaf energy. Especially since Elk lurked and then left. Xino's late vote on Elk doesn't make me feel that great. I am also not sure I buy the Bookwyrm train is pure, and of everyone on that train, I find Turtle the most suspect. Cash placed a potentially incriminating vote so I guess maybe that gives Cash a tiny bit of credit.

Archer and Mat hopping in lockstep is odd, and I am not sure how I feel about that. Dislike Insanity's sheep - understand Insanity may be new, but in light of the D1 vote, feel more than a little uncomfortable with this.

I was tempted to claim an Ookla name but I am GMing...

[InfiniteInsanity]

What does dgaf mean?

[Mat]

45 minutes ago, InfiniteInsanity said:

What does dgaf mean?

It’s an abbreviation that basically just means ‘uncaring’ or otherwise uninterested. ‘Don’t give a crap’ basically

[Archer]

32 minutes ago, InfiniteInsanity said:

What does dgaf mean?

Doesn't care. Or, not thinking very hard about decisions. 

Quote

Archer and Mat hopping in lockstep is odd, and I am not sure how I feel about that. Dislike Insanity's sheep - understand Insanity may be new, but in light of the D1 vote, feel more than a little uncomfortable with this.

Let it be known that Mat is copying me, not the other way around. I clocked it, but it speaks to a commitment to not trusting Kas that an elim would be overcomplicating their life by extending. The elims might have decided early on to aggressively take thread control from Kas, but then yielding it to me like this would defeat the whole point. 

Quote

Gravitation is a target scan. It's the one that can potentially catch the NK in action. Only Jez has this. It's a watered down scanner, but I'd consider it more important than the Shaman.

Blade holders can be identified by Transformation, of which there are two Blades. Shalash and Battar. Unlike the Shaman, the Blade holders get to know exactly what Blades you carry.

I feel like the elims will kill any blade holders they find by scan, but that's not a strategy you can count on. 

Quote

*flips coin*

Wizard

 

@Ookla the Implosion can you explain this vote, please? How exactly did you arrive at the decision? 

[Kasimir]

9 minutes ago, Ookla the Paragrapher said:

I clocked it, but it speaks to a commitment to not trusting Kas that an elim would be overcomplicating their life by extending. The elims might have decided early on to aggressively take thread control from Kas, but then yielding it to me like this would defeat the whole point. 

In what sense?

[Archer]

6 minutes ago, Kasimir said:

In what sense?

Let's say e!Mat started off the game with a strong desire not to let you lead the village in helpful directions. D1, this leads to some mutual shade throwing and I believe them backing off. D2 they have the opportunity to join you on v!Szeth (because they aren't e-e) as a retaliation vote, but decline to. Instead, they cast a feeble vote on TUN that they know won't look good in retrospect. (But it fits with v!them harboring suspicion of TUN and you, who were helpfully voting alongside each other at the time.) They then sheep me twice more, which concedes thread control. Surely by the time they decided to pull the plug on the thread dominance plan, they'd further retract their already softened stance on you and take some of your explicitly presented reasons over my (often changing) gut. 

Instead they seem to be subconsciously not wanting to vote with you, I contend because villagers don't lose their suspicions of someone quickly. 

You might say e!they're trying to keep voting on you as an available option, but they're undermining their credibility too much in the process for a backup plan. 

This post's theory would be undermined by e!Xino, because e!Mat would have been more desperate for a CW and unable to vote with you. I don't have a great counter to that rebuttal right now

[Cash67]

What I think D3 will look like

 

[Turtle]

am starting roadtrip so not gonna be on for a bit sorry

[Shining Silhouette]

I've been feeling a lot better today, and I'll sit down and do some analysis in a couple hours after I finish some commitments.

Also I have Ooklafied.

—Shining Silhouette

[Stick.]

These tiers are not ordered I just wrote down whatever came to mind first

Village: Kas - I think I'm comfortable enough to say Kas is V. This is not an effort clear - he seems actively invested in solving in the sense that his analysis does not seem forced. Also I got the chance to properly read your NKA and lol sorry I don't remember why I killed Striker in LG86 xD I'll make sure to spell out my kill rationales in the future xD

Kinda villaeg idk:

Mat - the vibes were a tiny bit off D1 but he seems a lot more relaxed in his more recent posts. Why are you village reading JNV? 

Turtle: Turtle gets their own tier I guess. Reading through N1, I'm liking this post encouraging discussion which I am just now seeing. I don't think e!Turtle tends to be this proactive in the thread. But also, due to the warnings I've received I am wary of trying to read turtle based on expected playstyle. Their bookwyrm vote was cast when the votes were tied between Elk, Szeth, bookwyrm and myself. So It's possible that turtle is e/e with one of those as their vote then put bookwyrm in the lead. And I'm not sure how I feel about the night vote. xD Personally I have done that as elim before  I think the difference between my turtle tier and the 'kinda village' tier is that I'm open to voting turtle if it comes down to it but we've better options at the moment.

Elim:

Szeth - yeah no I hate to tunnel but their vibes still don't sit right with me

Elk - Haven't yet responded to my other post so my thoughts haven't changed much. @Kasimir you say they were lurking last turn - was this when bookwyrm was in the lead or earlier?

Cash - I really like your profile picture. Baby Perry the Platypus is so cute ^-^ But anyway- I went to their profile to filter through their posts and it surprised me to see the amount of posts Cash has apparently made. Granted I'm not the most active follower of this game atm but I did not remember Cash making many posts. This is a red flag for me because it means they'd been successfully flying under the radar. 

Quote

Was originally gonna go for Elk but after the back and forth with Szeth, gonna back off that for now as I don’t know which one to go. Though if we did want to just elim the both of them via votes in D2 and D3 we could do that as well. 

Could you elaborate on what exactly you meant by this (post from D2)? That last sentence in particular.

Araris - Basically what others have already pointed out. I think that there's araris/elk e/e potential bc Elk was in danger of being exe'd last turn but the bookwyrm train ensured their safety. Will make note of Araris' defence of Cash for voting with illwei.

xino - they didnt have a problem voting bookwyrm D1 but decided to go side train D2. @Ookla the Forgotten where did your opinion on bookwyrm change? (if at all?)

Alv - mainly gut. I agree with Kas that ties for Alv are NAI. Especially now that we've flipped both wiz and bookwyrm as V, his tie-chasing D1 is even more NAI. That said, I don't like the vibes. He didn't vote at all last turn despite evidently being present at EoD, which I don't know what to make of.

Okay, this took longer than expected and there was a lot more reading than writing to be done and I havent even covered the entire player list. Why are there so many players in this game ._. Unfortunately I have to go back to assignments now. I hate this I hate this dumb data science assignment I dun like it can I please go back to programming in java

[Kasimir]

1 hour ago, Ookla the Paragrapher said:

Let's say e!Mat started off the game with a strong desire not to let you lead the village in helpful directions. D1, this leads to some mutual shade throwing and I believe them backing off. D2 they have the opportunity to join you on v!Szeth (because they aren't e-e) as a retaliation vote, but decline to. Instead, they cast a feeble vote on TUN that they know won't look good in retrospect. (But it fits with v!them harboring suspicion of TUN and you, who were helpfully voting alongside each other at the time.) They then sheep me twice more, which concedes thread control. Surely by the time they decided to pull the plug on the thread dominance plan, they'd further retract their already softened stance on you and take some of your explicitly presented reasons over my (often changing) gut. 

Instead they seem to be subconsciously not wanting to vote with you, I contend because villagers don't lose their suspicions of someone quickly. 

You might say e!they're trying to keep voting on you as an available option, but they're undermining their credibility too much in the process for a backup plan. 

This post's theory would be undermined by e!Xino, because e!Mat would have been more desperate for a CW and unable to vote with you. I don't have a great counter to that rebuttal right now

Fair. I sort of misread your initial comment, no thanks to the clause  This makes sense to me, yeah. But either way, I'm still sold on V!Mat for now - his D2 has been less reassuring to me but I don't see E!Mat committing to brawl that hard with me for no functional reason.

I'm worried about E!Xino, but believe we can cross that bridge later on - he's definitely my lead suspect, but I have others.

26 minutes ago, _Stick_ said:

and lol sorry I don't remember why I killed Striker in LG86 xD I'll make sure to spell out my kill rationales in the future xD

Thank you >>

[The Unknown Ajah]

3 hours ago, Kasimir said:

I was tempted to claim an Ookla name but I am GMing...

[Mat]

12 minutes ago, Kasimir said:

for no functional reason.

I mean, you did come out of it v reading me 

[Kasimir]

1 minute ago, Ookla the Tall said:

I mean, you did come out of it v reading me 

Listen. I'm comfortable for now with my V!read on you. I'm not interested in rethinking it. If more weird crem goes down, sure. But I kinda expect to be too dead to care by that point so you'll be someone else's problem

[Cash67]

Thanks @_Stick_! Phineas and Ferb defined my childhood. 
 

For that quote, my thoughts were that with Szeth and Elk basically accusing each other of the same thing as a elim tell, I think that one of them is an elim. I’d be willing to vote both of them off if we can agree on the above statement. Though I’d like to vote Szeth first for their double standard on accusing Elk. 

[Archer]

31 minutes ago, Cash67 said:

For that quote, my thoughts were that with Szeth and Elk basically accusing each other of the same thing as a elim tell, I think that one of them is an elim. I’d be willing to vote both of them off if we can agree on the above statement. Though I’d like to vote Szeth first for their double standard on accusing Elk. 

I think this is a great idea! But I have to insist on doing Elk first, since I suspect them more. Do you mind if we flip flop the order? 

2 hours ago, Ookla the Debonair said:

—Shining Silhouette

Thank you, person who changed their name and profile picture at the same time. o.O

Hey Stick, what do you think about me? 

[Szeth_Pancakes]

46 minutes ago, Cash67 said:

Thanks @_Stick_! Phineas and Ferb defined my childhood. 
 

For that quote, my thoughts were that with Szeth and Elk basically accusing each other of the same thing as a elim tell, I think that one of them is an elim. I’d be willing to vote both of them off if we can agree on the above statement. Though I’d like to vote Szeth first for their double standard on accusing Elk. 

This post doesn't sit right with me, and not just because it suggests voting me off. Correct me if I'm wrong, but we don't have time for something like that. If it was truly "one of them is an elim" then sure, but it's "I think one of them is an elim." We're on N2 and we still have 5 (or possibly 6) elims left to go. We need to start getting rid of people we actually have hard evidence on, not "this could be an elim tell."

[Kasimir]

Just now, Ookla the Omniscient said:

We need to start getting rid of people we actually have hard evidence on

Where do we get hard evidence from on N2?

[Szeth_Pancakes]

Just now, Kasimir said:

Where do we get hard evidence from on N2?

The Bookwyrm train, for one -- we can be almost certain that at least one of the people on there is an elim.

[Kasimir]

2 minutes ago, Ookla the Omniscient said:

The Bookwyrm train, for one -- we can be almost certain that at least one of the people on there is an elim.

That's not hard evidence. That's speculation. High certainty, but where's your hard evidence for who it is on the train?

I'm not trying to be nit-picky here: I don't really E!read you for reasons I've laid out, but I don't think it's constructive to talk about hard evidence in the absence of a Seeker scan, and that's the sort of certainty we don't get in this game. So much more people didn't vote on D2 that it's harder to ID whether the Bookwyrm train was really all Elim or not. The fact it had five voters makes that quite likely but not guaranteed. D1 is probably an easier bet to read the votes from, due to the fact almost everyone voted.

The main reason I regard the D2 Bookwyrm train is helpful is just really in light of what movements look more suspicious and what the D1 train(s) tell us.

That's still not hard evidence. A lot of singling out who the Elim on the train might be is going to come down to things like trying to work out what 'could be' an Elim tell because people will reveal their alignment in every interaction. I feel some players like Alv are harder to read, but it's there if you know what to look for.

[Szeth_Pancakes]

Apologies. "Hard evidence" wasn't really the right term -- it just feels like Cash is suggesting something that would take two cycles and might very possibly lead nowhere.