Long Game 91: A Fresh Start in Shinovar

[Quivil]

36 minutes ago, Matrim's Dice said:

I don’t have anything besides gut, but I do think it’s kind of weird how hard you latched onto ties since that’s normally a thing people who have played other games do, since they’ve actually seen the uses of ties.

Correct me if I'm wrong, but I think I remember Cash maybe playing before?

At least, his pfp's familiar. That might mean nothing tho

[Araris Valerian]

16 minutes ago, Matrim's Dice said:

e!Bookwyrm means v!Araris though

 

[Mat]

4 minutes ago, Ookla the Implosion said:

Correct me if I'm wrong, but I think I remember Cash maybe playing before?

At least, his pfp's familiar. That might mean nothing tho

I don’t think so, unless my memory is even worse than I thought  

3 minutes ago, Araris Valerian said:

Yes yes I remember the last time this game was run but if anything I think that would make e!you less likely to bus

[Araris Valerian]

Just now, Matrim's Dice said:

Yes yes I remember the last time this game was run but if anything I think that would make e!you less likely to bus

It just makes me smile inside that you want to kill me for completely unknown reasons instead of for exeing a (potential) elim.

[The Unknown Ajah]

38 minutes ago, Archer said:

Didn't Cash also have a really sus vote D1? Maybe it was tie related in reasoning. 

Anyway, Araris Stick

Wanna join us on the Araris wagon? We have a great rationale for it, we just aren't telling anyone what it is

Yeah, no. Maybe if I heard the rationale I would agree with it, but I'm just going to stay on Szeth.

@Matrim's Dice @Ookla the Implosion, I think Cash played way back when, but I'm not sure.

Edited November 26, 2022 by The Unknown Novel

[Mat]

3 minutes ago, Araris Valerian said:

It just makes me smile inside that you want to kill me for completely unknown reasons instead of for exeing a (potential) elim.

I’d say they’re not unknown and I don’t love the Bookwyrm train, and you’re a potential elim too  What’s the VC, do you have an idea?

TUN, I did give some rationale. What do you think about the Bookwyrm train?

Edit: Cash joined the Shard in September so I doubt it

Edited November 26, 2022 by Matrim's Dice

[Araris Valerian]

1 minute ago, Matrim's Dice said:

I’d say they’re not unknown and I don’t love the Bookwyrm train, and you’re a potential elim too  What’s the VC, do you have an idea?

Nope! I’m too out of it to do anything but attempt to give you a hard time.

[Mat]

1 minute ago, Araris Valerian said:

Nope! I’m too out of it to do anything but attempt to give you a hard time.

I think Bookwyrm is in the lead, which is fine with me. I’m unlikely to join that train but I won’t stop it either.

[The Unknown Ajah]

5 minutes ago, Matrim's Dice said:

I’d say they’re not unknown and I don’t love the Bookwyrm train, and you’re a potential elim too  What’s the VC, do you have an idea?

TUN, I did give some rationale. What do you think about the Bookwyrm train?

Edit: Cash joined the Shard in September so I doubt it

I don't really have an opinion. Don't even really know why it happened. And the only rationale you gave is that Araris is going after LHG Bookwyrm, but technically I'm doing the same with Szeth.

[Alvron]

7 hours ago, Ookla the Omniscient said:

 ....@Alvron, what do you have to say for yourselves?

I like Ike err, ties?
Sorry but that's how it is.  If I'm village, I like ties.  If I'm evil, I like ties.  If I'm up for the exe, I like ties.  If I'm online near rollover, I'm going to try and make a tie.
The chaos of last minute votes, the unknown certainty of who died, the chance to cheat death (if I'm one of them), it's all fun for me.  There's also the fact that having ties means there's a slightly higher chance of elims trying to save their brethren.  If someone has a two or three vote lead, the elims might decide to just let it go but if it's tied....  It's information we can use later down the line.

[Cash67]

All of y’all have had a Mandela effect on me…. I joined the shard about 2 months ago. 

1 hour ago, Archer said:

Didn't Cash also have a really sus vote D1? Maybe it was tie related in reasoning.

And yeah it was about half tie and about half it seems like the best person to tie to make people move their votes….

 

…..so yeah about 100% tie related

 

Edit: And yeah this is my first time playing… so I did figure out what ties do, (Force other people to make a choice, and add a little spice to the game), and I’m down for potentially helpful chaos in the beginning of these kinds of games, so I went for it. 

Edited November 26, 2022 by Cash67

[Kasimir]

8 hours ago, Ashbringer said:

Vote Count:

• Szeth_Pancakes / Ookla the Omnicient (2): The Unknown Novel, _Stick_
• The Unknown Novel (2): Matrim’s Dice, Archer
• The Bookwyrm / Ookla the Perpetual (2): Araris Valerian, JNV
• Elkanah (2): The Bookwyrm / Ookla the Perpetual, Szeth_Pancakes / Ookla the Omnicient
• xinoehp512 (1): Kasimir

 

Let me know if that doesn’t look right to anyone.

So updating this so I can just follow:

• Szeth_Pancakes / Ookla the Omnicient (2): The Unknown Novel, _Stick_
• The Bookwyrm / Ookla the Perpetual (4): Araris Valerian, JNV, Turtle, Cash
• Elkanah (2): The Bookwyrm / Ookla the Perpetual, Szeth_Pancakes / Ookla the Omnicient
• xinoehp512 (1): Kasimir
• Araris (2): Mat, Archer

Are you guys confusing Cash with Coop by the way.

K so Bookwyrm is in the lead now. I could probably swing this because minimally if I go onto any Elk/Araris/Szeth train, I'll probably pull Alv with me. Part of me just wants to flip Bookwyrm so we can stop hearing about it and ok I will stop complaining that Chana didn't want to do something I technically am reluctant to do right now.

I am low key tempted by the Araris and Elk trains tbh.

[Ashbringer]

10 minutes ago, Kasimir said:

So updating this so I can just follow:

• Szeth_Pancakes / Ookla the Omnicient (2): The Unknown Novel, _Stick_
• The Bookwyrm / Ookla the Perpetual (4): Araris Valerian, JNV, Turtle, Cash
• Elkanah (2): The Bookwyrm / Ookla the Perpetual, Szeth_Pancakes / Ookla the Omnicient
• xinoehp512 (1): Kasimir
• Araris (2): Mat, Archer

Are you guys confusing Cash with Coop by the way.

^ this matches with what I've got

Also who is Coop

[Szeth_Pancakes]

Can someone explain the araris train to me? It feels weird and out of nowhere.

[The Unknown Ajah]

1 minute ago, Ookla the Omniscient said:

Can someone explain the araris train to me? It feels weird and out of nowhere.

It is.

[Szeth_Pancakes]

2 minutes ago, The Unknown Novel said:

It is.

I mean, I can agree Araris has been vaguely suspicious the entire game,

but that's. just. araris.

that is his meta.

right? has this changed?

[Kasimir]

I find it tempting because it doesn't seem right to me that Araris sits deep on a train that is, to be honest, fairly LHF. I usually think of Araris as being a somewhat more thoughtful player than that. I don't rule out that Bookwyrm could be Evil, but Araris being willing to sit that deep doesn't ping right to me. 

3 minutes ago, Ookla the Omniscient said:

I mean, I can agree Araris has been vaguely suspicious the entire game,

but that's. just. araris.

that is his meta.

So what is your current read on Araris?

[Szeth_Pancakes]

Just now, Kasimir said:

I find it tempting because it doesn't seem right to me that Araris sits deep on a train that is, to be honest, fairly LHF. I usually think of Araris as being a somewhat more thoughtful player than that. I don't rule out that Bookwyrm could be Evil, but Araris being willing to sit that deep doesn't ping right to me. 

So what is your current read on Araris?

What does LHF mean?

And null; he hasn't really posted enough for me to get anything good on him.

[Mat]

13 minutes ago, Ookla the Omniscient said:

I mean, I can agree Araris has been vaguely suspicious the entire game,

Ok now I want to vote you loool

[Kasimir]

10 minutes ago, Ookla the Omniscient said:

What does LHF mean?

And null; he hasn't really posted enough for me to get anything good on him.

Are you unwilling to lynch a player you have at null? Because I'm not. I only protect my Village reads.

LHF = Low Hanging Fruit. Basically, either Bookwyrm is very, very obviously Evil, or he's lynchbait. You know how D1s usually work: TUN says something mildly sus and people lynch TUN because they sure as hell aren't willing to lynch Mat or Archer or Illwei or me; they do D1 us sometimes but not like that. This used to be SE at every single new player. If you remember playing with Thaid, think Thaid. 

I don't rule out that Bookwyrm could be very, very obviously Evil because if you look at his level of play from QF63 and LG90, it does explain why that's currently the correct level of evaluation on Bookwyrm. But Bookwyrm is just that shade of inexperienced chaotic that I could easily just see it as people being opportunistic about new player weirdness.

My point is that in the world where it's new player weirdness, that's such lynchbait that it doesn't seem alright to me Araris is that fine with it. It's exacerbated by Stick, because Stick is that unfine with it and basically no one else is! How the hell do you have a read on a player that pretty much everyone is ambivalent about? I feel like Bookwyrm is a solid null- for most.

So in general as I told Stick, I'm just not a fan of both her approach and Araris's so I do feel that there's something weird about that train, and I'm currently locating the weirdness in <Stick, Araris.>

I'll grant that I'm much, much more willing to litigate a lynch than the two of them are - I'm the overthinker here. But I also do not understand why there is no doubt at all, and how they can have credences more certain than mine. That's about it.

There's what TUN says about you being LHF so technically TUN voting you should get him sussed, but in all fairness, the circumstances are different. You haven't played in quite a while, which adds to the difficulty of reading you. You also don't have what I would absolutely agree to be an insanely opportunistic and Evil looking vote, which powerfully motivates a lot of the Bookwyrm voters (my assumption anyway.) And finally, TUN's new playstyle is just throwing a wrench into everything and I at least am giving him space for it until I work out where I stand on him. There's a reason TUN is also still tanking sus.

Edited to add:

2 minutes ago, Matrim's Dice said:

Ok now I want to vote you loool

Bro rn you wanna vote everyone .__.

Edited November 26, 2022 by Kasimir

[InfiniteInsanity]

I agree with Kas on their POV on Xino. I think that all the jumping around with votes they did is suspicious. I don't think it will change because that's what I'm set on right now and I'm going to have a sugar crash any minute now. 

[Szeth_Pancakes]

2 minutes ago, Kasimir said:

So in general as I told Stick, I'm just not a fan of both her approach and Araris's so I do feel that there's something weird about that train, and I'm currently locating the weirdness in <Stick, Araris.>

That makes a lot more sense. I need to get used to the new overall SE meta 

[Mat]

14 minutes ago, Kasimir said:

Bro rn you wanna vote everyone .__.

I won’t vote you or Archer or JNV or probably some other people

[Kasimir]

The strongest case I can make for E!Bookwyrm is functionally:

On 11/22/2022 at 2:26 AM, Ookla the Perpetual said:

I haven't read all of these posts that magically appeared while I was gone.

Mat. He seems to be looking for proof in something that isn't relevant, which is suspicious.

This post, right after Mat and I are both sussing each other and I'm appealing to the thread for their views on Mat. The first line seems designed as a disclaimer: "This isn't related to what the rest of you have been talking about, because I haven't read it, this is just coincidence." And that vote looks extremely opportunistic because it comes right at that time and when Mat has three votes on him - this makes Bookwyrm the fourth voter.

The thing is that you can't even say E!Bookwyrm wouldn't because it's too obvious, because he was also an opportunistic fourth voter on V!Archer in QF63, he just did it via sheeping:

Which IMO shows that E!Bookwyrm isn't afraid to be opportunistic and just has issues formulating suspicions, which is fair given his Village play and his experience level.

Araris, FWIW:

On 11/22/2022 at 3:09 AM, Araris Valerian said:

I agree that Bookwyrm is suspicious. Alvron can live until I get a Division blade,.

To elaborate, Book's posts feel like they are too careful. Sometime newer players are like that, but I think newer elims are even more prone to that, so it's worth a vote change.

I don't actually disagree with his assessment there, but I do think he overstates a little - V!Bookwyrm for instance kept raising hackles in LG90 because he kept stating his votes were subject to change.

The strongest case to me for V!Bookwyrm is the fact the train disintegrated fairly normally: Elk and Xino went off, and Araris went to Xino. 

Also, this post:

On 11/22/2022 at 3:59 AM, Ookla the Perpetual said:

GAAAAAH this is frustrating.

I voted Mat because he saw something suspicious from his POV, and I had a hard time empathizing. He's doing the exact same thing I did, so my vote isn't really justified.

You all keep posting faster than I can keep up!

I need to re-read this thread so I know what the heck happened, and so I can make my own reads that are based on more than a flimsy assumption.

I don't know if I see this sort of retraction making sense from an Elim, even one with Bookwyrm's profile who was told to walk it back. 

Like, can you make sense of his reasoning?

"I voted Mat because he saw something he thought was suspicious and that made no sense to me. But he's doing the exact same thing I did (and I'm Village!) so my vote isn't really justified." I kind of don't know if this is likely from E!Bookwyrm - I feel like the Elim doc would tell him to deescalate, maybe vote someone else. I'm not sure they'd advise him to retract via asserting he's a Villager and what Mat did was the same as what he did.

Remember, this is a teammate who just attracted a lot of attention D1!

I also think that the fact this is 1PM (rollover is at 3PM) suggests either than one of the <Szeth, Alv, Elk, TUN> crowd is Evil (in an E!Bookwyrm world) or that the Elims are just fundamentally comfortable with leaving the Bookwyrm train as it is in the lead. It's not the strongest point as Elims can absolutely bus teammates or have a big risk appetite, but that's my read of the feel of the thread.

Too many "I don't actually care if Bookwyrm gets lynched" people, and a few loud anti-Bookwyrm voices.

So in short I guess I feel Silho's neutral category, because I can see both Bookwyrm cases and I'm not really sure which way to lean.

Side-question for y'all: @Archer, @Araris Valerian - you both insist E!you would go for the Shaman. Isn't Jezrien a bigger threat to you, on the assumption that Jezrien is in V!hands? Or do you know something we don't? Araris might remember the trauma of getting scanned repeatedly by Xino  

[xinoehp512]

Gaaah internet is not cooperating >:( 

From last EoD I am sus of Elkanah. That movement at the end was quite strange indeed.