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Illwei probably wasn't going to be the Shaman if Ashbringer was aware that they'd missed an important action submission in a recent game. e!I'd be gunning for the Shaman, which coincidentally would probably overlap with my thread control kill choices anyway. The person who put the kill in was probably more focussed on Illwei's good LG performance than what went down in my MR. 

2 hours ago, Kasimir said:

I'm also a bit lost as to why Archer figured you were putting enough pressure on Xino so it was fine for him to stay on Wiz. A single vote really isn't pressure at all in this sort of landscape, evidenced by the utter lack of fricks that Xino had to give.

I was happy with the half vote I applied by saying I might vote Xino. I have low expectations and just do stuff in hopes that small reactions mean big things later in the game. 

By the way, I declare that Omniscient and Mat are not e-e because of their confusion when talking to each other last page. 

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My sinuses are blocked and SE is all I have the willpower to focus on right now, so I decided to actually start putting some effort into analyzing this crem.

Thus, here's a breakdown of the evolution of the Wizard wagon.

Spoilered for length.

Spoiler
On 11/21/2022 at 5:57 AM, Archer said:

Do you wanna vote for Wiz with me for the sin of random voting? It's the least useful type in terms of the information it provides. 

I see your midnight and raise you 2am! 

*

Tweedle-son-Dee awoke with a bellyache, having eaten his oathstone. He wondered if he'd have room for turkey later. 

I don't think I should read too much into this. It's basically a joke and Archer removes his vote when he gets actually suspicious of someone.

On 11/21/2022 at 11:21 AM, Ookla the Forgotten said:

Mat (4): Shining, Kas, Insanity, Bookwyrm
Wizard (1): Archer
TUN (3): Stick, Szeth, Mat
Alvron (1): Elkanah
Araris (1): TUN
Bookwyrm (4): JNV, Wizard, Araris, Xino

My my this thread sure is going fast isn't it :P.

Whoops almost got my post chomped there :blink:

Between TUN and Bookwyrm, I'm going to vote Bookwyrm.

On 11/21/2022 at 11:25 AM, Elkanah said:

I'm hiding behind my silly pokevote to try to not just join a train on someone. I really do want to hear what they want to say. It's taking everything I have to keep these brakes intact. although, given Xino's vote tally, I would prefer to lynch Bookwyrm over Mat. Alvron 

I guess brakes are overrated

 

Edit:

This is a good point. Still, I'll leave my vote as posted. maybe it will add a little weight to my question.

On 11/21/2022 at 11:41 AM, Ookla the Forgotten said:

Mat (3): Shining, Insanity, Bookwyrm
Wizard (2): Archer, Xino
TUN (3): Stick, Szeth, Mat
Araris (1): TUN
Bookwyrm (4): JNV, Wizard, Araris, Elkanah

What if we made it more than 3 :ph34r:

Bookwyrm Wizard

On 11/21/2022 at 11:43 AM, Elkanah said:

We could summon a wild Alvron!

Bookwyrm Wizard

Xino immediately feels off. They vote Bookwyrm over TUN but provide no reasoning and use false duplicity. D1 is only a quarter of the way through at this point; it feels irrational to assume that these are the trains that will persist throughout the rest of the cycle, as it seems they're doing. Elkanah immediately sheeps them. Twenty minutes later, Xino switches to Wizard to preserve the tie, and Elkanah sheeps them again, this time within two minutes. This whole exchange would be fine if Xino didn't keep their vote on Wiz for the rest of the cycle.

On 11/21/2022 at 10:22 PM, Kasimir said:

Because I wanted to kill you :)

You're in luck because I have just three Elim games in current SE, so it is very easy to go through all of them :)

Collected in this post in LG90, which is fine as it's V!me :)

If so, why TUN, given that Silho inaugurated it?

I just find this a very weird diagnosis considered I confirmed both actively in QF63 and tacitly in prior games that I directly respond to games I've played directly before the one I'm currently in, and had no reason to lie about it given I was a Villager in QF63. I came out of a game where I got blindsided by E!Turtle, as did Xino - do you seriously think that's not something I'd feel is worthy of learning from? I just came out of two games (QF63, LG90) where I repeatedly formed wrong suspicions and fell to my tendency to go One Thing on fellow Village players - do you seriously think I shouldn't take it as a learning point and actively enter this game being more careful of my thoughts and impulses?

What's the point of playing these games if you are going to do the same things over and over again and not actually learn?

Spelling it out since I'm less tired now: I guess the thing that struck me about your recent games (LG86, LG90, LG78, and LG73 - though the outlier) is that there's a similar thread through them that I sort of see in Zunn and Klaas Vaak. Zuun and Klaas Vaak remind me more of me when I'm going full-throated RP style. (SIGH. I really owe RP huh.) You actively comment on thread things as Zunn, just within Zunn constraints. You alternated between you things and a side of Village things as Vaak.

At the same time, I'm not sure I get the same sense Illwei does that you're deliberately playing up the chaotic. I was honestly more or less filing it away as 'regular Alv' until you linked the Zunn game and the other games and I went to backread and compare to the other four I was looking at.

Another hand (so many) is that you're another player I dislike going after on D1 or actively want to be Village which influences me as well.

And finally, I suppose: I think it would be hypocritical to agree with your post about playstyle change and to also go after you for a difference in...for what feels like a fundamental difference in engagement and orientation with the game.

This is important.

Willing/Don't Care: <Alv, Mat, Stick, Xino, TUN, Bookwyrm, JNV, Xino, Wiz, Araris

Not Willing: <Elk, Insanity, Tani, Szeth, Cash, Chantara, Archer, Turtle, Illwei>

Wiz feels off.

This is a gut vote, which is fine since it's only halfway through D1.

On 11/21/2022 at 10:28 PM, Ookla the Omniscient said:

Wizard, I guess

b/c Kas said so

Edit: im really storming tired cut me a break ‘kay

*Raises an eyebrow at past self*

I was really, really tired that day, I think. It doesn't help that I was posting at 10:30 PM my time when I really should have been in bed.

On 11/21/2022 at 10:34 PM, Kasimir said:

How do you go from 'Kas is oddly active' to sheeping me on a vote though?

A misinterpretation of my previous post. This is also fine, I guess. I'm being weird and Kas is calling me on it.

On 11/21/2022 at 11:15 PM, The Unknown Novel said:

Szeth/Omniscient because sheeping. I may think Kas is v but confirmed (and especially suspected villager) is not confirmed right. 

 

I don't have a problem with this either.

On 11/22/2022 at 7:02 AM, Kasimir said:

1. That SAUDI ARABIA UPSET. 100% worth postponing meds for.

2. RP still going to be postponed, RIP. 

3. Thoughts before I forget, since tomorrow will be a mess:

Hasn't played this. No baseline.

/shrug because that was a lot of Alv obsession earlier and I wondered if it was overanchoring on the poke. Moot now but I'm trawling in search of the quotes I do want and it still stood out to me on re-read.

Like the feel of the first part better on re-read, more free-wheeling than I've gotten the sense off E!Mat. Feel :| about the bolded part, felt like a restrained response if you suspect doc communication (given no existing PMs and Cash's first game.) Washes out again I guess.

Hmm. Not interested in litigating Bookwyrm/Insanity again, but this is a less measured and thought-through response than later and I'm curious what changed, @InfiniteInsanity. Later response linked for reference:

Still not fond of this. Why think about the future cycles now when we're really focused on right here and right now and current grounds for suspicion?

Opportunistic af. Dislike. 

Best vod.

This is a nonsensical response from:

A. Someone who hasn't played with me in late game to the point of mentioning needing to go look up my games, and
B. Someone who won QF63.

I don't understand where this is coming from, and dislike it mildly on principle where it feels like wanting to keep the option on the table.

Actually why?

I want to read this in a positive light, but I can't. I think this particular one just ends up being a solid blank for me.

First para: This sparks joy.

Second para: This does not spark joy. Hesitancy to go after a top suspect feels ? but we've litigated this.

I don't know how to feel about this. Araris seems more off the ball than I've usually seen him and I don't understand what is going on. Part of me keeps thinking about Araris's willingness to switch up. Part of me wonders if E!Araris does that. All of me knows E!Araris is tough to read and I usually read Araris wanting him to be Village so I am going to move on at this point.

Kind of not sure I see E!Xino doing this. I think it's time for me to re-open my Xino Study again.

As Mat points out, this is...mid-cycle? I feel a bit eh about this. But it's probably understandably prompted by Xino. I don't disagree with the sentiment either.

If I haven't yet asked this: bro is there a reason of all the players you are especially hellbent on summoning Alv. And what do you plan to do now you have summoned him?

I am struggling to understand how this line of reasoning works.

I actually like this a bit. I feel it's a slip a Villager is more likely to make than an Elim.

Ok, misread this the first time. Fair enough. 

Bro you literally V read me for this for all of one hot second when we were in a lylo together after proceeding to paranoid on me all game (admittedly I played very badly) and saying I was Evil even after I flipped Village -.-

I am not quoting something this long. I liked this post, although I'm aware it's Archer's new style so technically I shouldn't effort clear but he still gets a positive point from it, sure. I've made comments on what I feel to be genuine V effort before. Not fully sure this is it, but I like it.

What can I say, my experiences with my teams were that they tended to be a bit more tight about how loose you run.

In retrospect this is an odd response to me. The original premise was based on a misapprehension of the vote as a self-pres vote. Discovering it wasn't a self-pres vote should have eroded the grounds for suspicion, and I dislike that this was swept under the carpet. Don't disagree with a vote like this midcycle but it feels odd: ties can at least be informative midcycle, so there's the part where I'm wondering if it's a good place to park. Would like to watch this and Archer.

Not quoting Illwei either. Too long. I do get a positive vibe off this post - related to my LG90 thoughts. In general, I haven't known E!Illwei to play to this niche. You could argue it's effort clearing and that one day I'll get bitten, but that engagement currently feels positive to me.

See, the thing is, this reads like normal Alv to me. Except on re-reading, I have no idea where my baseline for normal Alv comes from anymore. There's probably a decent answer to be made along the lines that it comes from say, 2014 but damned if I know.

The TUN classic.

I've mentioned my thoughts on this subsequently.

Wonderful, a philosophical dispute on causation with quibbling, the one thing I wanted to sign in to the Shard to read :) 

Do not understand where this comes from.

*crickets*

Do not like this.

Feels like Illwei can't deal with Chaos!Silho.

Must you make it so hard.

I don't see why you could have anything to complain about at all!

I see my future and I dislike this.

I feel it's a bit odd to go straight past Silho and to go for TUN.

Do not like the shift from 'weird maybe sus' to following me on a vote.

I don't know how I feel about this.

Tempting to read this a very slight bit positively. Easy enough to pull back without too much condemnation. Flip side is that it's easy to park, but still.

Hmm. Ok. So the thing that was holding me up with regard to Wiz is that he just didn't really seem engaged or interested in the game. I'm not sure he is even here, but I stand by what I said in QF63 when defending him to JNV that I think the attitude switch between V!Wiz and E!Wiz was visceral. I don't know how much of that was a function of being busy and how much of that was just a function of being a big difference from his Evil play. 

I also think that the difference was less sharp in BT3, but it was still a departure there. 

That being said;

Whoops.

I am in principle fine with the Szeth train, but Szeth is on my no go list because I don't D1 returning players, and oh, speaking of which, yeah. 

Theoretically this can be said performatively, but like when Conq said it in MR59: I like this. I like this attitude, and I tend to read it as being more Village, even as I disregard it because sorry Elk, not exactly going to break policy here. No birthday vote for you. Sad :P 

And finally, since I actually set out to do this by tracking returning players who mentioned this and then got distracted by flagging and commenting on posts along the way:

I read the focus on the relocation aspect of the Shaman as more likely to emerge from a Village perspective.

I do feel like I'm reaching the place where I am comfortable doing this. I don't know if I'll stay there because I feel conflicted about overriding my policy.

Wiz, Alvron.

P.S. The Sacred Coin picked Alv over Wiz. But that's not really the decision factor here, just thought it was odd given RNGesus.

Edited to add: Forgot the most important thing - gonna disappear for quite a bit as I'm doubling sedatives. Should be ok but may not really be able to head back for rollover. Depends on how out of it I am. Apologies in advance.

Not much to say about this either.

On 11/22/2022 at 8:50 AM, Ookla the Omniscient said:

I didn’t mean “Kas was oddly active” like I was reading you elim. Like someone else pointed out, being oddly active is usually a village tell for you.

Though… a motif throughout a lot of your posts has been “don’t sus people for changing playstyles…”

but y’all are right, I have no idea what midnight!Szeth was thinking

Wizard

*sighs, facepalming*

On 11/22/2022 at 6:59 PM, Archer said:

Wiz Szeth

At this point, a lot of the reasons people are e-reading me are "well he wanted the tie and his reasoning is flawed." But if you look at a lot of earlier votes D1 that never got rescinded, they're also about ties. This brings me back around to Xino and Elkanah -- I'd guess based on the sheeping that Elk is elim.

On 11/22/2022 at 7:14 PM, Tani said:

*flips coin*

Wizard

Random voting. I don't like it, but I also did it one post down so I can't really fault Tani on this one.

On 11/22/2022 at 10:36 PM, Ookla the Omniscient said:

Whatevs. Kas Wiz

This was a random decision between Bookwyrm and Wiz to self pres.

On 11/22/2022 at 10:54 PM, Elkanah said:

I don't really trust Wizardbut I definitely don't trust Bookwyrm. May the gods decide in favor of the village.

On 11/22/2022 at 10:56 PM, Alvron said:

Bookwyrm Wizard

On 11/22/2022 at 10:56 PM, Elkanah said:

Well... Wizard Bookwyrm For the tie

 

Edit:

Okay Alv you go.I'll stay

On 11/22/2022 at 10:58 PM, Alvron said:

Wizard Bookwyrm

I don't like this, and it makes me suspect Elk/Alv e/e. I find it kind of funny that people are wary of me for wanting a tie, but nobody is suspicious of this whole exchange.

On 11/22/2022 at 10:59 PM, _Stick_ said:

Wizard 

On 11/22/2022 at 11:00 PM, Elkanah said:

Wizard

Stick doesn't want the tie and Elk does, but Elk's retraction doesn't make it in on time. It makes me concerned that it isn't about who they think is elim anymore, and it feels a bit petty.

Conclusion: Szeth Elk. @Elkanah and @Alvron, what do you have to say for yourselves?

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Vote Count:

  • Szeth_Pancakes / Ookla the Omnicient (2): The Unknown Novel, _Stick_
  • The Unknown Novel (2): Matrim’s Dice, Archer
  • The Bookwyrm / Ookla the Perpetual (2): Araris Valerian, JNV
  • Elkanah (2): The Bookwyrm / Ookla the Perpetual, Szeth_Pancakes / Ookla the Omnicient
  • xinoehp512 (1): Kasimir

 

Let me know if that doesn’t look right to anyone.

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6 minutes ago, Ookla the Omniscient said:

…yes. I am. But my problem is that while a lot of people are calling me on it, no one’s calling them on it.

I mean, you’re tied with Elk and I know people have called him out on it. Alv’s a harder case since Alv likes ties regardless.

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17 minutes ago, Matrim's Dice said:

I mean, you’re tied with Elk and I know people have called him out on it. Alv’s a harder case since Alv likes ties regardless.

Ok — I guess my reasoning is a bit flawed in that regard. But that doesn’t change the fact that Elk is suspicious. I can accept that that means I am as well :P

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Villagers:
-The Tie Guys seem too self aware to be likely elims. I imagine it's at least 2/3 village among Alv, Stick, and Elk so I'm going to pass on all of them.
-Chantara had a villagery response to my theorizing about voting behaviour. Plus I think I read they have the kill blade?
-Kas is asking to be voted off after setbacks, which isn't in their elim meta.

Elims:
-Stick started today with a strong push on Elk. I feel like the Tie Guys are the low hanging fruit the elims would target, unless generally implicating fans of ties implcates say the one of those three that is evil. It looks like Stick procuded an Elk argument during the Day but didn't mention them during the Night, so it doesn't look like progression. It look like they're trying to influence votes. 

(Am I just looking for people with an urgent agenda? Yeah kind of.) 

-Bookwyrm's vote reasoning today feels feeble if based on a full thread re read. They didn't find any anecdotes worth highlighting?
-Araris could be evil because they're the only high profile player I'm getting constant bad vibes from.

TUN Stick

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6 hours ago, _Stick_ said:

Very cool. @Ookla the Omniscient if you thought the turn was over 24 hours earlier than it was meant to be, why didn't you switch your vote back to Mat (who you say you suspect) before the turn 'ended'? You decided to leave your vote on yourself, putting yourself in the lead tied with Elk. Why? Like, how was that productive for the village at all? It makes me suspect that misunderstanding wasn't entirely genuine. 

Elk has been MIA and my vote hasn't appeared to have done anything so Szeth.

ngl I've read this post about four times now - what do you mean? xD You're saying that due to less noticeable elim resistance you think that Bookwyrm is not E? I already agree with that

Are you implying that you think we're teamed and distancing?

K sorry am on mobile so quoting is clumsy. 

1. I am saying I don't disagree with Araris's thoughts on why the lack of resistance might not be telling cf tie signalling. I am interested in whether that influences your calculus. 

2. Well, no. I'm saying I'm concerned one of you is Evil because both of you are very different from where I'm psychologically at and I don't understand where both of you can feel so certain about the fact you have sharply differing reads on Bookwyrm. I'm at the point where I would not be surprised Pikachu no matter which way he flips. 

If anything, I have a lack of clarity. I don't disagree with Araris that you could be trying to redirect attention away from Bookwyrm with an aggressive train on Elk. But at the same time, Araris's willingness to go for Bookwyrm really feels off to me—I don't know that it makes sense to me that he's just content with the immediate LHF train. I almost want to say it feels like the lazy response to me and that has my hackles up. He could absolutely be right—my weakness is often my willingness to just commit to the obvious Evil. But still. 

With both of you so at odds, only one of you can be right. And the way both of you have been approaching this cycle makes me worry one of you isn't actually with pure intentions. 

5 hours ago, Archer said:

Illwei probably wasn't going to be the Shaman if Ashbringer was aware that they'd missed an important action submission in a recent game. e!I'd be gunning for the Shaman, which coincidentally would probably overlap with my thread control kill choices anyway. The person who put the kill in was probably more focussed on Illwei's good LG performance than what went down in my MR. 

I was happy with the half vote I applied by saying I might vote Xino. I have low expectations and just do stuff in hopes that small reactions mean big things later in the game. 

By the way, I declare that Omniscient and Mat are not e-e because of their confusion when talking to each other last page. 

I don't disagree with the kill point but feel it can be blurred by the team issue. Sort of how I wrongly cleared Araris in LG83, where it isn't as though it's a negative kill meta issue. That being said, I would not go on you without Bookwyrm flipping E at this point as the priority is more clearly from Bookwyrm. 

Also, are you sure you didn't just read the kill blade being referred to as Chana? 

I intend to reread both threads and decide where to vote before rollover. Of necessity, may be a bit late as I intend to get two to three more hours of sleep first. 

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lack of contribution is annoying but i’m also coming down with sickness so i’m unlikely to be incredibly active :(.

i’ll go bookwyrm for now because i think there’s a decent chance they’re elim and their flip gives us some info

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25 minutes ago, Matrim's Dice said:

I’m just gonna sheep rn

TUN Stick

Edit: Hmm five minutes later and I already don’t like that. >>

I am not the best person to sheep this game. :D. Would you rather kill Araris for vibes? I'd actually do that but only if no one asks why because I don't have any reasons for it

1 hour ago, Kasimir said:

Also, are you sure you didn't just read the kill blade being referred to as Chana? 

This is probably the case! 

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I definitely forgot to follow this thread, so here are my thoughts after reading this thing once. 
 

Im interested to see how Szeth and Elk interact later, maybe something to keep an eye on after the vote switching and similar accusations. Beyond that, I can’t really get a hard read on anyone. Me needs more experience with SE. 
 

Alright I gotta cast a vote whilst I’m still awake, so Bookwyrm

They did draw some suspicion D1, but ties (sorry y’all) took the lead for chaos’ sake, and I gotta actually make a choice this time. This seems to be the best choice. Was originally gonna go for Elk but after the back and forth with Szeth, gonna back off that for now as I don’t know which one to go. Though if we did want to just elim the both of them via votes in D2 and D3 we could do that as well. 

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7 minutes ago, Cash67 said:

Why me? 

I don’t have anything besides gut, but I do think it’s kind of weird how hard you latched onto ties since that’s normally a thing people who have played other games do, since they’ve actually seen the uses of ties.

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Didn't Cash also have a really sus vote D1? Maybe it was tie related in reasoning. 

Anyway, Araris Stick

1 minute ago, The Unknown Novel said:

Technically I should vote you for this, but (sue me Kas) this feels better tone wise, especially the edit.

Wanna join us on the Araris wagon? We have a great rationale for it, we just aren't telling anyone what it is

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10 minutes ago, Archer said:

Didn't Cash also have a really sus vote D1? Maybe it was tie related in reasoning. 

Anyway, Araris Stick

Wanna join us on the Araris wagon? We have a great rationale for it, we just aren't telling anyone what it is

Yeah, that’s part of the tie thing in my mind.

Look, this week lends itself to me playing real fast and loose xD But I think for me I don’t like his willingness to just sit on Bookwyrm, who I think is just an easy option. e!Bookwyrm means v!Araris though so maybe we should just flip Book.

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