--- Posted November 23, 2022 Report Share Posted November 23, 2022 @ookla the POKE VOTE What was your point of linking help test 3? And why did you mark mat as an elim lean in option 3 but not give any reasoning for that? I'm going to be pretty much gone til thanksgiving is over, work is gonna kill me these next two days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
xinoehp512 Posted November 23, 2022 Report Share Posted November 23, 2022 9 hours ago, Kasimir said: @Ookla the Forgotten didn't show up at EoD, which surprised me a bit. Interested if this means you were fine with the state of affairs at EoD? More like I wasn't in a position to do anything about it :P. I was running a bit late at EoD, and oh boy were there a lot of posts to catch up on. TBH without me on the chopping block the incentive to post just wasn't there. >.< I swear, basically all of the past few games I've been in I've thought to myself "you should form a last minute train at EoD" and I have yet to do it. Oh well, maybe someday. LG90 Xino-Kas Spoiler Spoiler What are your thoughts on Elkanah? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ookla of Colors Posted November 23, 2022 Report Share Posted November 23, 2022 2 hours ago, Matrim's Dice said: Guys, don’t effort clear Kas, I will link a game if you want >> If we’re real I’m probably the one who’s wrong but I’m not about to just be like ‘this checks out with v!Kas’ because of course it does, Kas is a good player :P. I do think he’s catchable later but I have full confidence in his D1 capability to have played that as elim. Hey look at that. Kas linked ALL the games, an LG before you asked this question. @ookla the POKE VOTE I want pie, and have a new read. V: Definitely Kas N: This is my reads default zone for everyone. E: Mat (mild read,) because he was trying to shade Kas with little/no proof, when he said himself that he could've caught e!Kas later. (Just cuz someone clears someone else doesn't mean they won't still be watching for elimmy stuff.) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
--- Posted November 23, 2022 Report Share Posted November 23, 2022 2 hours ago, ookla the POKE VOTE said: im reading through my elim games from earlier and i think i found an elim tell of mine so i’m gonna try to use it a bit here lololol i am also not a fan of this on principle. if its something you see then change it in your wolfgame. Tani is probably an elim, as well as szeth. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kasimir Posted November 23, 2022 Report Share Posted November 23, 2022 (edited) Day One First vote is from me onto Stick. Nothing spectacular there. Quote Stick (1): Kas. Silho goes onto Mat next. Worth noting this vote will go on to be extraordinarily stable - it only goes off at EoD. Silho isn't interested in solving this cycle and felt no real sense of pressure. Quote Stick (1): Kas Mat (1): Silho Two minutes later, Turtle doubles up the vote and apologises for it. The apology is a bit weird because that's not really the sort of thing people care about. Archer contends that's more V!Turtle. I think the defensiveness should be noted at the very least. Same issue with image again. Quote Stick (1): Kas Mat (2): Silho, Turtle Bookwyrm votes on Insanity. Kind of want to note this is a shift from how Bookwyrm has been playing LG90. Not sure what it portends. Wiz rolls a die and goes onto Chantara. Mat votes Archer, and Archer asks if Chantara wants to vote on Wiz with him. I generally like solicitation because of the confidence it displays. But also, @Archer, any reason why you thought to ask Chantara that? Quote Stick (1): Kas Mat (2): Silho, Turtle Insanity (1): Bookwyrm Chantara (1): Wiz Archer (1): Mat Wiz (1): Archer Stick votes TUN because she saw him in the thread but noticed he hadn't yet posted. I feel it just reminds me of what Ash was doing in terms of checking for people who were maybe in docs early on instead of in the thread. So ok, keep an eye on TUN. Fair point from Illwei that it likely entails lurking Stick too. Stick apparently has a Turtle/Mat E/E theory from this. I...okay, I sort of like this and I don't like that I like this. I like that she's thinking about that immediately (well, sort of immediately, as this is delayed post in the thread, and therefore cannot receive as much credit) but at the same time, I am not sure my gut is okay with Stick. I am going to bracket this for the moment. Turtle unvotes Mat. No replacement. I don't really expect anything by it. Quote Stick (1): Kas Mat (1): Silho Insanity (1): Bookwyrm Chantara (1): Wiz Archer (1): Mat Wiz (1): Archer TUN (1): Stick Ok. Archer makes a distro post. Long story short, I'm ignoring everything in the post. The numbers seem right to me, but I am not interested in assuming distro given the game has reached sufficient size that Ash can probably get a bit more exotic. It is unlikely the Elims have Division, and as the GM who likes to give E!Seekers, I will say that I strongly believe that assuming we have Jezrien is just asking to get bit. Mat unvotes Archer. Quote Stick (1): Kas Mat (1): Silho Insanity (1): Bookwyrm Chantara (1): Wiz Wiz (1): Archer TUN (1): Stick Bookwyrm retracts from Insanity here. This is weird and I agree it's weird - I don't know that it is Evil weird, but Insanity hadn't even shown up when Bookwyrm retracted, and this is the pebble that starts the Bookwyrm obsession later on. This is sort of what I mean when I say Bookwyrm in this game has just been filed away in my head as Thaid because I can't make this make sense. Mat's response is to pressure Insanity. I see where Illwei is coming from: you'd expect the natural response there to be to pressure Bookwyrm, not Insanity, since the weird behaviour came from Bookwyrm and not Insanity. There are probably worlds in which E!Bookwyrm retracts from V!Insanity so you want to capture those too by directly applying pressure to the source of the weirdness. Mat's response doesn't make sense. Quote Stick (1): Kas Mat (1): Silho Insanity (1): Mat Chantara (1): Wiz Wiz (1): Archer TUN (1): Stick Bookwyrm is fine with this because presumably, he hasn't been voted on, therefore feels no need for a retaliation vote, and @s Insanity. This...is still weird, sigh. And yeah I see the natural teammate theory, it's just so Thaid I hate it. Araris shows up and votes Alv but also: @Araris Valerian - Who did you expect your poke vote strategy to entail suspicion of? All votes at this point in the thread are trains of one. Quote Stick (1): Kas Mat (1): Silho Insanity (1): Mat Chantara (1): Wiz Wiz (1): Archer Alv (1): Araris TUN (1): Stick This is another point of weirdness: Bookwyrm posts saying Alv hadn't posted yet. This is...just even more weird. Because yeah Araris was framing his vote as a non-poke vote which is probably confusing to everyone, and might explain this, but as Mat subsequently points out, this ignores that Insanity also hadn't posted and fuels an Insanity/Bookwyrm theory that continues to rage on. Bookwyrm's response to that, by the way, is that he retracted his Insanity vote because Insanity hadn't posted yet, which like bruh, you voted Insanity on p1 of D1, how the hell do you vote and not see that Insanity hadn't posted yet? This is a bit kayana. Cash asking Araris if this was a gambit and Mat's muted response "Where?" is still odd. I still think that if you are a Villager, you should have more wariness than that if you believe the location is in question since the only other location is the Elim doc. Bookwyrm posts an explanation, which amounts to confusion, and that's more or less how I feel about Bookwyrm now, with inner Shadow saying to just blaze it, and the niggling sense that this is just too Thaid for my liking. I unvote Stick and go to Mat. Quote Mat (2): Silho, Kas Insanity (1): Mat Chantara (1): Wiz Wiz (1): Archer Alv (1): Araris TUN (1): Stick Elk doubles up on Alv and insists on summoning Alv. This is something that continues later through the cycle, and Elk explains it as excitement to be playing with Alv again and wanting the chaos. In kayana world, it's protective of Mat. But I don't really buy this because it's very very early into the Day. No one should be feeling any pressure. Quote Mat (2): Silho, Kas Insanity (1): Mat Chantara (1): Wiz Wiz (1): Archer Alv (2): Araris, Elk TUN (1): Stick Szeth doubles up on TUN and asks why people are voting on Alv when Alv hasn't posted yet. Irony is blinding Quote Mat (2): Silho, Kas Insanity (1): Mat Chantara (1): Wiz Wiz (1): Archer Alv (2): Araris, Elk TUN (2): Stick, Szeth Insanity responds with a retaliation vote on Mat. Still would like to hear from Insanity: she's promised more thoughts later, which was more measured than her hot button solo retaliation vote and I'm interested in both why there is this shift and what her thoughts currently are. @InfiniteInsanity, what's up? This is another vote worth noting because it never moved. Insanity did look at the thread subsequently. Quote Mat (3): Silho, Kas, Insanity Insanity (1): Mat Chantara (1): Wiz Wiz (1): Archer Alv (2): Araris, Elk TUN (2): Stick, Szeth Araris (1): TUN Elk points out the fact that Mat is a lead train. There's some amount of ? that Elk is even flagging this - it's still early in the cycle, so Elk shouldn't really have reason to feel too concerned at this juncture. TUN votes Araris in defense of Alv. This IMO is an extremely uncharacteristic vote from TUN, who repeatedly defends voting only with good reasons because he'd rather be sure and hit an Elim than not. This is odd to me because this policy is something TUN also highlights later on! One thing I could see is it being a TUN joke vote. It sort of has that kind of attitude. Maybe. Mat has e!Kas gut but doesn't want to vote. I have E!Mat credences, so I guess there we go. Elk also says he doesn't mind getting D1ed, which, ok, fair, I read in a slightly Village light similar to MR59 Conq, but also probably shouldn't, so I can degrade that credence a bit. Even then, I still like that I suppose. He looks at the train and decides the votes aren't suspicious, which makes me feel a bit ? because...shouldn't you have made that determination before calling out the train? Dislike this softwalking here. Bookwyrm comes in again with a vote that is opportunistic as all hell, on Mat, at a point when there are three votes on Mat and when I have expressed suspicion of Mat and I nearly reflex-unvoted off how awful that vote just seemed to be. Which opens up the layer of whether E!Bookwyrm does that. Arguably, E!Bookwyrm did it in QF63, but he also sheeped aggressively when he did that, and it stood out less. The disclaimer he hasn't read all the posts does seem designed to defang suspicion, so you know what, soddit, let's at least flip this train so we can stop thinking about this and figure out what the hell to do working from the flip. On 11/22/2022 at 2:26 AM, Ookla the Perpetual said: I haven't read all of these posts that magically appeared while I was gone. Mat. He seems to be looking for proof in something that isn't relevant, which is suspicious. In a vote that comes right as there are three votes on Mat, and I'm asking how people read Mat, Bookwyrm adds another vote on Mat. The disclaimer seems a bit too conscious of that fact, given the timing and target of his vote. Suspicious. Quote Mat (4): Silho, Kas, Insanity, Bookwyrm Insanity (1): Mat Chantara (1): Wiz Wiz (1): Archer Alv (2): Araris, Elk TUN (2): Stick, Szeth Araris (1): TUN In response to that, JNV votes on Bookwyrm. It's a typical JNV vote, IMO, no matter their alignment. Elk agrees the Bookwyrm vote is suspicious but is currently committed to summoning Alv. Szeth unvotes TUN. Wiz agrees Bookwyrm seems off and votes Bookwyrm as well. Quote Mat (4): Silho, Kas, Insanity, Bookwyrm Insanity (1): Mat Wiz (1): Archer Alv (1): Elk TUN (2): Stick, Szeth Araris (1): TUN Bookwyrm (3): JNV, Wiz, Araris Araris goes from Alv to Bookwyrm. In retrospect, I agree with the claim it's too careful - I dislike the disclaimer I flagged. On 11/22/2022 at 3:18 AM, Elkanah said: Not usually I realize this thread is exploding like an egg in a microwave, but I'd really like to hear more about this. I don't think Mat suspecting people of working together is indicative of him being Tukari. I recognize that Kas has experience, other reasons, and a little trauma that support his suspicion; but do you have any support for this other than that Kas is suspicious of him? Please feel free to take the time you need to catch up on the thread, but I'm eager to know if there is more to this. Being a bit blunt, this is the most suspicious post I've seen this game and there's not a lot in it. It feels like you were looking for an opportunity to be present in thread and solidify a lynch without being noticed. You are currently my top suspect and I might vote for you if we ever hear from Alvron. I don't disagree with what Mat was doing here. I also see this as odd, and yeah I know I've flagged it before and you've responded, Elk, but I am currently doing a re-read and just dumping thoughts as this goes along. Hesitancy to vote top suspect over desire to hear from Alv is just odd. It's more pronounced by the fact that Elk was away for a while and therefore never touched the Bookwyrm train until the end. Xino shows up and votes Bookwyrm: Quote Mat (4): Silho, Kas, Insanity, Bookwyrm Insanity (1): Mat Wiz (1): Archer Alv (1): Elk TUN (2): Stick, Szeth Araris (1): TUN Bookwyrm (4): JNV, Wiz, Araris, Xino @Ookla the Forgotten - Xino, why between Bookwyrm and TUN? Was Mat a no-go for you? (Noteworthy that Xino has Mat on TUN and thinks it was a tie between TUN and Bookwyrm. But his voting would've created a tie between Bookwyrm and Mat anyway so I don't see the motivation for this move.) Elk does in fact shift off Alv to save Mat, voting Bookwyrm. Quote Mat (4): Silho, Kas, Insanity, Bookwyrm Insanity (1): Mat Wiz (1): Archer TUN (2): Stick, Szeth Araris (1): TUN Bookwyrm (5): JNV, Wiz, Araris, Xino, Elk This gives Bookwyrm a five vote monopoly. I unvote Mat because I believe he's back to ascribing bad things to my being unwilling to give my reasons upfront, and I see that as more likely to come from V!Mat. Quote Mat (3): Silho, Insanity, Bookwyrm Insanity (1): Mat Wiz (1): Archer TUN (2): Stick, Szeth Araris (1): TUN Bookwyrm (5): JNV, Wiz, Araris, Xino, Elk Xino then decides he wants another train, and hops from Bookwyrm to TUN. This theoretically keeps Mat safe, but I don't understand what Xino is trying to do here. Would not be opposed to voting Xino. @Ookla the Forgotten, what was your thought process at this point? Quote Mat (3): Silho, Insanity, Bookwyrm Insanity (1): Mat Wiz (2): Archer, Xino TUN (2): Stick, Szeth Araris (1): TUN Bookwyrm (4): JNV, Wiz, Araris, Elk @Araris Valerian, you mentioned your thoughts on Elims sometimes jumping onto a teammate's train to explode it in order to scare people off. I am curious as to your thoughts on the sudden surge and just as sudden deflation of the Bookwyrm train. Elk returns to his obsession with summoning Alv A quick step off Bookwyrm and onto Wiz. Three way tie more important than saving Mat, I guess? @Elkanah Quote Mat (3): Silho, Insanity, Bookwyrm Insanity (1): Mat Wiz (3): Archer, Xino, Elk TUN (2): Stick, Szeth Araris (1): TUN Bookwyrm (3): JNV, Wiz, Araris Elk still flagging the two votes on Mat as weird is just...weird in and of itself. Put this in context: early in D1, Elk flags a train on Mat as 'interesting' and doesn't really look into it, looks and then expects it to dissolve, and then gets suspicious when it doesn't dissolve but also feels the votes are not especially indicative. I don't know if this is a meta clash, or if this is Elk trying to fish for suspicions and returning to the Mat train. I say this despite also thinking vote stability is odd on Silho's and Insanity's parts, so I know that's odd. I just sort of feel that Elk has two main things he's fixed on at this point in the game: Mat train and making Alv appear, and cuts Bookwyrm quite a bit of ice. Which I do approve of, I just feel ehhhhh about it. I guess I would say I'm not suspicious because I expect it to dissolve - I'm suspicious because I expect there to be at least a few parked votes. IDK man maybe I'm just overthinking this and I should stick with V!Elk. Ffs. @ookla the POKE VOTE - To answer your question, even though my answer might very likely change as I go on through this re-read, at this juncture, it's V!Mat for me, null on Bookwyrm but I just want that tackled, and E!Elk. As much as I like Elk's willingness to get flipped D1, I just don't like the ?s I have on him so far. Bookwyrm replies and unvotes Mat, conceding that Mat is doing the same thing that Bookwyrm is doing. Which...sort of makes sense if you're V!Bookwyrm? IDK, obviously if it's E!Bookwyrm it's performative. I just sort of kind of see it as a confused backtracking of a kneejerk...and I kind of lean a bit V on it so I'm back to circling around on Bookwyrm with no real sense of what I think. Quote Mat (2): Silho, Insanity Insanity (1): Mat Wiz (3): Archer, Xino, Elk TUN (2): Stick, Szeth Araris (1): TUN Bookwyrm (3): JNV, Wiz, Araris Elk declines to vote Bookwyrm off one sketchy post, which, ok, but also...D1. But he did want to hear Bookwyrm out, which fair, but you can sort of do that with a retractable vote as well. I don't feel this leans very strongly one way or another, but this is just me thinking that marked reluctance to vote Bookwyrm is the stuff E/E theories are born out of. On 11/22/2022 at 4:18 AM, InfiniteInsanity said: Y'all are posting and thinking faster than my brain can handle currently. I just need a couple of hours to sort out what's going on and figure out my own thoughts before I can attempt to tell you what they are. This is what Insanity says and that I flagged earlier. Would like to hear from Insanity now. I vote for Chantara instead, who I've seen lurking. This makes Bookwyrm the lead train. Quote Mat (2): Silho, Insanity Insanity (1): Mat Wiz (3): Archer, Xino, Elk TUN (2): Stick, Szeth Araris (1): TUN Bookwyrm (3): JNV, Wiz, Araris Chantara (1): Kas Archer posts indicating willingness to vote for Xino but doesn't actually vote for Xino. This is what I mean by Archer's vote also being incredibly stable - random voting is a D1 sort of reason. D1 p1. That vote doesn't move despite Archer saying, in response to Araris's post on Xino: On 11/22/2022 at 4:44 AM, Archer said: I like this premise. I'll happily vote Xino for playing to the VC not their suspicions Alv, naturally, reacts very angrily to the slander of the Gods of Luck and Chance Araris agrees to vote Xino and swaps off Bookwyrm. Quote Mat (2): Silho, Insanity Insanity (1): Mat Wiz (3): Archer, Xino, Elk TUN (2): Stick, Szeth Araris (1): TUN Bookwyrm (2): JNV, Wiz Chantara (1): Kas Xino (1): Araris This begins a temporary dissolution of the Bookwyrm train. Still V!read Illwei off this. Don't particularly care, reads are meant to be revised, and I am comfortable with the engagement this shows. TUN unvotes Araris for moving off Alv. Quote Mat (2): Silho, Insanity Insanity (1): Mat Wiz (3): Archer, Xino, Elk TUN (2): Stick, Szeth Bookwyrm (2): JNV, Wiz Chantara (1): Kas Xino (1): Araris I do feel the alignment/playstyle clash between Alv and Illwei is philosophical, still. I don't believe it has a resolution and I believe they could argue themselves blue in the meta thread and still disagree. Anyway, Illwei votes Alv on the basis of his Chana Elk deal. Quote Mat (2): Silho, Insanity Insanity (1): Mat Wiz (3): Archer, Xino, Elk TUN (2): Stick, Szeth Bookwyrm (2): JNV, Wiz Chantara (1): Kas Xino (1): Araris Alv (1): Illwei Still maintain that Illwei cannot deal with Chaos!Silho but I agree that Silho was not being productively chaotic D1. Hopefully we'll get something more out of Silho this Turn or the next. Chantara votes for TUN because she feels the thread PMs might be a way for the Elims to redirect suspicion. Which...sort of yes, but that's why Illwei was hypothesising E!Silho? And it's odd in light of the fact the Silho/Turtle thread PMs were what was attracting attention in the first place. She cites difficulty keeping up with the thread subsequently. I feel your pain, Chantara, I really do. Quote Mat (2): Silho, Insanity Insanity (1): Mat Wiz (3): Archer, Xino, Elk TUN (3): Stick, Szeth, Chantara Bookwyrm (2): JNV, Wiz Chantara (1): Kas Xino (1): Araris Alv (1): Illwei This pushes TUN to lead tie with Wiz. I shift from Chantara to joining the three vote train on Wiz. RIP. Szeth sheeps me six minutes later onto Wiz. Quote Mat (2): Silho, Insanity Insanity (1): Mat Wiz (5): Archer, Xino, Elk, Kas, Szeth. TUN (3): Stick, Szeth, Chantara Bookwyrm (2): JNV, Wiz Chantara (1): Kas Xino (1): Araris Alv (1): Illwei TUN votes Szeth for sheeping. I do feel this is a mildly good look, insofar as that TUN is creating a new train rather than piling onto another, which would be more self-pres territory. Also that fifth vote would've been pure wth territory no matter what. Quote Mat (2): Silho, Insanity Wiz (5): Archer, Xino, Elk, Kas, Szeth. TUN (3): Stick, Szeth, Chantara Bookwyrm (3): JNV, Wiz, Mat Chantara (1): Kas Xino (1): Araris Alv (1): Illwei Szeth (1): TUN Mat goes onto Bookwyrm. Quote Mat (2): Silho, Insanity Wiz (5): Archer, Xino, Elk, Kas, Szeth. TUN (3): Stick, Szeth, Chantara Bookwyrm (3): JNV, Wiz, Mat Chantara (1): Kas Xino (1): Araris Alv (1): Illwei Szeth (1): TUN This was apparently bait for Elk. I shift from Wiz to Alv - didn't super like this, but felt that the more chaotic games Alv linked were games in which he still displayed some pro-Village tendencies, and so wasn't sure if that was much of a defense. Also didn't like that Alv hadn't called Archer out on the incredibly fast and pointless clear. Shortly after, Stick joins the Szeth train for that early TUN vote. Quote Mat (2): Silho, Insanity Wiz (4): Archer, Xino, Elk, Szeth. TUN (2): Szeth, Chantara Bookwyrm (3): JNV, Wiz, Mat Xino (1): Araris Alv (2): Illwei, Kas Szeth (2): TUN, Stick And I am still only on p9 of this Almighty-forsaken thread. Every day takes us further from God. I wander in a wasteland of barren boughs and broken stones. If I touch them, they bleed. Is it that I am dying? On 11/23/2022 at 0:31 AM, _Stick_ said: I dont see why e!bookwyrm would retract at this juncture without switching over to another already existing train. Mild village I don't disagree with this point from Stick. Lack of self-pres is weird. Then again, Bookwyrm train did more or less dissolve. IDK. Szeth unvotes Wiz, and Chantara unvotes TUN. I feel like the quality of my analysis is degrading at this point and I haven't even highlighted the votes yet. In between the two is the post of Archer's that mystifies me: On 11/23/2022 at 4:17 AM, Archer said: I feel bad about it to so I'm gonna steal the Alv-Wiz e-e theory as my justification, stemming from that Alv sussing me post being possibly a defence of Wiz. I still think this is weird as all hell, seeing that Alv didn't at any point sus Archer, and the post in which he does mention suspicions quotes this post of Archer's, so cannot be a response. I'd almost derpclear Archer for this, but I remember E!Archer is capable of just dgaf dashing things off, so I don't think I will be doing so. Changes his mind about Xino in a sudden turnaround and declines to vote Xino, deciding it's not weird for Xino. IDK about that. Quote Mat (2): Silho, Insanity Wiz (3): Archer, Xino, Elk TUN (1): Szeth Bookwyrm (3): JNV, Wiz, Mat Xino (1): Araris Alv (2): Illwei, Kas Szeth (2): TUN, Stick Bookwyrm and Wiz are back in the lead as ties. Cash subsequently also decides he likes ties and goes onto Alv. This is another place where I kind of want to put my foot down about people and slogans. We turn every bloody sodding thing into a slogan and people sheep it without bloody thinking and I swear to God that on the day I leave SE, I never want anything I've ever said to become a slogan and abused. Now we've gone from mid-cycle ties can be useful to a bloody sodding expopsp0idn of nbslodoy sodding goddamned TIES and meaningless soddin g voites becauyse TIES AMIRITE and no one at least considers how the frith this degrades the entire frithing epistemic environment because MID-CYCLE TIES GO. ffs. If you endorse a slogan, understand what it bloody means. Understand how the frith it works. Understand its limitations. Slogans are cheap and shut down thinking. Bloody hell. Anyway, vc at this point: Quote Mat (2): Silho, Insanity Wiz (3): Archer, Xino, Elk TUN (1): Szeth Bookwyrm (3): JNV, Wiz, Mat Xino (1): Araris Alv (3): Illwei, Kas, Cash Szeth (2): TUN, Stick At this point, I'm going to stop looking at reasons whenever they mention ties. It's just bloody unhelpful. This post from TUN strikes me as odd: he says he's willing to vote if there are good reasons, but uh...the reasons this game aren't actually better than those of other D1s. TUN's two votes have been for sheeping or for trying to kill Alv. The latter's not substantively better, and the former is probably qualitatively the same as any D1 vote. I'm not sure how TUN is fine with this since he usually keeps saying he'd rather get things right than deal with uncertainty. @The Unknown Novel, think you could walk me through your new outlook a bit more? Szeth has a crack theory I'm Evil, and I encourage Szeth to vote for me. That's about it. Part of this is my wanting to see how serious Szeth was about it, and to just generally engage and try to get a better read off Szeth. Part of it is because I have started to dislike the predictability of D1 lynches. I'm not going to say too much more about this as I think it will derail people even more. But I do want to note that I think we all recognise, explicitly or tacitly, that players who get D1ed tend to come from a specific player set and to not come from a different player set because "they can be read/are more useful." There's a good game-winning calculus for this. But it's also harsh to keep getting D1ed, and with Bookwyrm and Wiz in the lead, maybe TUN surging up, it felt like we were just entrenching this all over again. If I got lynched for it, fine. But at least that'd be someone else getting MLed on a D1. I don't like sacred classes very much. That's about as much as I'm going to obliquely say on the matter. Turtle temporarily votes me for the pizza and then retracts. I've mentioned that I feel Turtle's lobbying not to get me lynched is just kinda performative because Turtle can easily influence that by breaking the tie but doesn't want to. I solicit Alv onto the pizza train for more pizza. Archer votes Szeth for tie-chasing. Which, ok, fair. Tani RNGed and voted Wiz. Four way tie. Quote Mat (1): Insanity Wiz (3): Xino, Elk, Tani Bookwyrm (3): JNV, Wiz, Mat Xino (1): Araris Alv (2): Illwei, Cash Szeth (3): TUN, Stick, Archer Kas (3): Szeth, Kas, Alv Silho unvotes Mat, but doesn't do anything else. Likely apathy or content with the results - worth keeping an eye on depending on what your view of the final train compositions is. Don't really care about what you all think: from my POV, that's 1/2 at least Village lead trains at this point. Not a bad roll of the dice for Elims. Araris breaks the tie. IMO, this is mildly positive: it violates E!Araris's doctrine, and more importantly, is a vote on one of the two uncertain train left at this stage of the game. Willingness to vote Bookwyrm looks a little good here. Quote Mat (1): Insanity Wiz (3): Xino, Elk, Tani Bookwyrm (4): JNV, Wiz, Mat, Araris Alv (2): Illwei, Cash Szeth (3): TUN, Stick, Archer Kas (3): Szeth, Kas, Alv Mat swaps off Bookwyrm to Szeth, mentioning it was partly bait for Elk, and also that he'd take an Elk or Cash wagon. Quote Mat (1): Insanity Wiz (3): Xino, Elk, Tani Bookwyrm (3): JNV, Wiz, Araris Alv (2): Illwei, Cash Szeth (4): TUN, Stick, Archer, Mat Kas (3): Szeth, Kas, Alv This puts Szeth solidly in the lead. Chantara declines to get involved, so votes Mat. Again, your view on this will depend on your view of train composition IMO. If low Elim investment, this is one place to look. Quote Mat (2): Insanity, Chantara Wiz (3): Xino, Elk, Tani Bookwyrm (3): JNV, Wiz, Araris Alv (2): Illwei, Cash Szeth (4): TUN, Stick, Archer, Mat Kas (3): Szeth, Kas, Alv Szeth preserves a tie but also self-preses onto Wiz. Noted preference for Wiz over Bookwyrm. Selecting the Villager #feelsbad. This gets us: Quote Mat (2): Insanity, Chantara Wiz (4): Xino, Elk, Tani, Szeth Bookwyrm (3): JNV, Wiz, Araris Alv (2): Illwei, Cash Szeth (4): TUN, Stick, Archer, Mat Kas (2): Kas, Alv Alv votes Bookwyrm in order to force a three way tie. Anyone who knew Alv was playing this game should have seen this coming. Quote Mat (2): Insanity, Chantara Wiz (4): Xino, Elk, Tani, Szeth Bookwyrm (4): JNV, Wiz, Araris, Alv Alv (2): Illwei, Cash Szeth (4): TUN, Stick, Archer, Mat Kas (1): Kas One minute later, Elk votes on Bookwyrm as well, and unvotes Wiz, which Alv moves to counter. Quote Mat (2): Insanity, Chantara Wiz (3): Xino, Tani, Szeth Bookwyrm (5): JNV, Wiz, Araris, Alv, Elk Alv (2): Illwei, Cash Szeth (4): TUN, Stick, Archer, Mat Kas (1): Kas Which means: Quote Mat (2): Insanity, Chantara Wiz (4): Xino, Tani, Szeth, Alv Bookwyrm (4): JNV, Wiz, Araris, Elk Alv (2): Illwei, Cash Szeth (4): TUN, Stick, Archer, Mat Kas (1): Kas Basically the scene in Revenge of the Sith where Obi-Wan and Anakin exchange lightsabers while grappling and fight with each other's blades for a bit. K, frankly I'm not going to track the last few moves, it's Elk and Alv hopping to and fro trying to preserve the tie. It's interesting to me that Elk's commitment to his biggest suspect, Bookwyrm, never really stays and he prefers the tie in the end. Stick votes Wiz and ensures the exe goes through. Final trains: Quote Mat (2): Insanity, Chantara Wiz (5): Xino, Tani, Szeth, Alv, Elk, Stick Bookwyrm (4): JNV, Wiz, Araris, Alv Alv (2): Illwei, Cash Szeth (3): TUN, Archer, Mat Kas (1): Kas I think what we really have to establish at this point is whether we think the trains were clean or not, and how clean they were. It ended up functionally being a Szeth-Wiz-Bookwyrm cagematch with no vote manip, meaning that the players with vote manip were content with the state of affairs before turning in for the night. (Or if they were among those on late, then they didn't care about the volatility.) Given the rampant disorganisation between Elk/Alv/Stick, I'd potentially argue at least the three of them are not teamed, which is not very helpful, but there you go. I would either way look at the dgaf side-votes like Chantara and Cash, though IMO they look a bit better if one of <Bookwyrm, Szeth> is Evil. @ookla the POKE VOTE - No substantive change in my views. I see about 7+ new replies and honestly y'all can ignore most of this. This is me trying to work out what I think. I still feel Bookwyrm's train is hinky but I still also feel as though Bookwyrm is just going to be litigated to and fro. I can definitely see where Szeth starts to look hinky as well. I just think he also sounds sincere. I did feel the choice of Wiz over Bookwyrm was an interesting one, seeing as that most of the time, the suspicion was on Bookwyrm and Stick and I were still arguing about Bookwyrm later on. Ok Turtle, maybe swap Elk with Szeth. But I need to read what both of them have said again this cycle one more time. So against the spirit of Edited to add: Sorry, didn't finish as my keyboard died and I needed to go fix it but didn't want to lose what I'd typed. I suppose it'd come out of my set of three, but I'm fine with the approximate three I've offered. Edited to add 2: My current sets. I want to go back to sleep as the thread took too long, so this is going to be a set of rough buckets this time, which can go from very slight to a strong read. My criterion for 'Evil' at the moment is anyone I'd like to apply pressure on, and 'Null' is anyone I'd want to keep an eye on. Probably some potential litigation with where Archer, Xino etc. might go but it's more important to me to get this done than to get the solid nuances right. I can work through the rest later. Village: <Mat, Illwei, Araris, JNV> Null: <Tani, Alv, Stick, Turtle, Silho, TUN, Xino> Evil: <Chantara, Szeth, Archer, Elk, Bookwyrm, Insanity, Cash> @Ookla the Forgotten - In short, my read of him has depreciated. I appreciate that I do have moments that read V to me when it comes to him, but I also have a lot of ?. I accept he has explanations for them but I just do not quite like his voting patterns. I am not sure I am running off a Bookwyrm/Elk E/E theory because of Elk's willingness to endanger Bookwyrm at the end, but I feel as though reluctance is odd - cutting that amount of slack but not wanting to push your top suspect and even pushing the tie at the end...it just reads off to me. Edited November 23, 2022 by Kasimir Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
xinoehp512 Posted November 23, 2022 Report Share Posted November 23, 2022 24 minutes ago, Kasimir said: Xino then decides he wants another train, and hops from Bookwyrm to TUN. This theoretically keeps Mat safe, but I don't understand what Xino is trying to do here. Would not be opposed to voting Xino. @Ookla the Forgotten, what was your thought process at this point? I wanted to put pressure on Wiz. I thought the random vote thing was a little eh and then he did it again later IIRC. 24 minutes ago, Kasimir said: @Ookla the Forgotten - Xino, why between Bookwyrm and TUN? Was Mat a no-go for you? (Noteworthy that Xino has Mat on TUN and thinks it was a tie between TUN and Bookwyrm. But his voting would've created a tie between Bookwyrm and Mat anyway so I don't see the motivation for this move.) Uh... to tie. Now that you mention that, yeah that probably wasn't my smartest play >.< Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kasimir Posted November 23, 2022 Report Share Posted November 23, 2022 (edited) 4 minutes ago, Ookla the Forgotten said: Uh... to tie. Spoiler Edited to add: 5 minutes ago, Ookla the Forgotten said: I wanted to put pressure on Wiz. I thought the random vote thing was a little eh and then he did it again later IIRC. Thanks for the catch - missed that I'd typed TUN. Edited November 23, 2022 by Kasimir Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mat Posted November 24, 2022 Report Share Posted November 24, 2022 2 hours ago, Tani said: Mat (mild read,) because he was trying to shade Kas with little/no proof, when he said himself that he could've caught e!Kas later. (Just cuz someone clears someone else doesn't mean they won't still be watching for elimmy stuff.) Kindly avoid suspecting me for voicing an unpopular opinion thanks I’m well aware of what I said and I’m well aware of Kas’ post he put in response to Dannex last LG, that’s why I said I trust we’d get e!Kas later. I felt a bit alarmed when I asked everyone why they v read him and got that answer; I wasn’t really surprised but was hoping it was something else, and I viewed those v reads as more the ‘long posts = v’ kind as opposed to the ‘I know Kas’ meta real well’ kind based off who was reading him that way. I ask everyone refrains from commenting about me not wanting to effort clear Kas, that’s not a discussion I want to have. I’m fine to let this go as I do trust y’all not to blindly follow that read. Feels like by mentioning those reads I set a bomb off in the thread and I don’t get that but whatever, moving past it. I should reconsider my own read anyway. Part of holding onto it is that the reaction it gets is e reads on me and I think that’s dumb and I want to prove a point but that in itself is a bad reason and it won’t do any good if Kas is v Thanks for the tie rant Kas, btw Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ookla of Colors Posted November 24, 2022 Report Share Posted November 24, 2022 3 minutes ago, Matrim's Dice said: Kindly avoid suspecting me for voicing an unpopular opinion thanks I’m well aware of what I said and I’m well aware of Kas’ post he put in response to Dannex last LG, that’s why I said I trust we’d get e!Kas later. I felt a bit alarmed when I asked everyone why they v read him and got that answer; I wasn’t really surprised but was hoping it was something else, and I viewed those v reads as more the ‘long posts = v’ kind as opposed to the ‘I know Kas’ meta real well’ kind based off who was reading him that way. I ask everyone refrains from commenting about me not wanting to effort clear Kas, that’s not a discussion I want to have. I’m fine to let this go as I do trust y’all not to blindly follow that read. Feels like by mentioning those reads I set a bomb off in the thread and I don’t get that but whatever, moving past it. I should reconsider my own read anyway. Part of holding onto it is that the reaction it gets is e reads on me and I think that’s dumb and I want to prove a point but that in itself is a bad reason and it won’t do any good if Kas is v Thanks for the tie rant Kas, btw Oh, ok. Sorry. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mat Posted November 24, 2022 Report Share Posted November 24, 2022 4 minutes ago, Tani said: Oh, ok. Sorry. Oh you’re good Sorry if that was, ah, aggressive. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Unknown Ajah Posted November 24, 2022 Report Share Posted November 24, 2022 (edited) 2 hours ago, Kasimir said: @The Unknown Novel, think you could walk me through your new outlook a bit more? Not really a new outlook so much as deciding pre-game to try to be more willing to vote (nor just vote for whatever, but more willing) this game. I hadn't quite decided whether or not to go through with it until I saw how big the thread was, so I managed to get good enough suspicions to vote. @Matrim's Dice, I don't know if you're talking about me, but I am v!reading Kas for them seeming to be more in their v!meta rather than just effort reading. Edited November 24, 2022 by The Unknown Novel Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mat Posted November 24, 2022 Report Share Posted November 24, 2022 4 minutes ago, The Unknown Novel said: I don't know if you're talking about me, but I am v!reading Kas for them seeming to be more in their v!meta rather than just effort reading. I don’t know, I was rambling just in general. Don’t let me discourage your reads. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Archer Posted November 24, 2022 Report Share Posted November 24, 2022 In Mat's defence, Kas specializes in playstyle comparisons. So if you're looking at his (small sample size!) of elim games, you're playing the game he wants you to play. For all we know he's been preparing to high effort an elim game for months and has finally gotten the opportunity to enact his plan. I'm cool with keeping options open. Self voting, Turtle obsessing... That's two small things my gut didn't like so I'm happy to not immediately village read him. By the way @Kasimir, asking Chan to vote Wiz was engagement fishing. I think they'd posted recently so I thought they might still be around. Also the Wiz-Alv thing was me trying hard to not break the rule about exing people for their playstyle. RNG is annoying but NAI. I eventually decided that was stupid and changed gears. Also Wiz's comments did seem villagery. Should have articulated that in the moment. 5 hours ago, Araris Valerian said: Is this a premise you are actually running with, and if so how is it impacting your suspicions (assuming for a moment that the tie folks were acting neutrally)? Not really, it's more of a hypothetical to argue against early tie obsession. That said, my theorizing is leading me to believe the elims would avoid the extremes. Don't be obsessed with ties so blatantly, don't be reactive to ties. E!me would just stomach a teammate being endangered given the threadstate and my inability to hammer, but they might have tinkered around the edges to bring up more CWs just in case. Here's a gut check VC. Asterisk indicates gut. Not indicates based on their place in the final vote. Nulls are lack of info. This is probably worthless but I'm checking out for a while and want to give you an idea of my thoughts. Evil: Cash, Araris*, Xino*, Tani, Szeth, ? : Stick, Insanity, Chan Village: Kas*, Illwei*, TUN*, Mat, Alv*, JNV*, Elk* TUN apparently slipping that they don't open PM's is villagey. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
InfiniteInsanity Posted November 24, 2022 Report Share Posted November 24, 2022 I'm not going to attempt to quote any of the times @Kasimir tried to ask me for my thoughts because my quote thing isn't working right. Sorry, I was really just in a bit of an aggressive mood in general at the beginning D1 and retaliation just kind of was natural to me, but then as the day went on I got confused with what was going on and knew that I needed to figure that out. And all the back and forth "I'm village but...." that happened between Mat and Kas didn't help my confusion much. It threw me off quite a bit and I never truly made sense of it. And to me that kind of "Well I'm obviously not _____" always makes me more suspicious. I'm sure it's something that's normal for y'all since I didn't see anyone else mention it but that's kind of where my mind was on just letting my vote stay on Mat. I also definitely see where Bookwyrm is being considered suspicious. But most people only voted Wizard for the sake of wanting a tie right? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kasimir Posted November 24, 2022 Report Share Posted November 24, 2022 (edited) 43 minutes ago, Archer said: In Mat's defence, Kas specializes in playstyle comparisons. Whoa, what's with everyone and selling blatant lies this game? I specialise in vote analysis. I've said this multiple times, across multiple Village games. Sure, I've been branching out to try to do post reads, but reading playstyles is functionally not my strength. The mere fact we disagree on how to read early Turtle already explicates this. You can't have it both ways: either I am a playstyle comparison god, in which case it's not clear to me why you think I am wrong to caution against reading Turtle the classic way, or I am not very good at playstyle comparison, (hi Wiz! ) in which case the only playstyle I can be reliably expected to comment on is my own. 43 minutes ago, Archer said: So if you're looking at his (small sample size!) of elim games, you're playing the game he wants you to play. I like this move. It's a touch more sophisticated than, "Aman has a silver tongue, and if you listen to him, you're playing the game he wants you to play." Sure, you can complain about my Elim game sample size, but that's simply all the data there is. There's nothing to cherrypick, it's what is there. So you can decide to throw it out in search of paranoid possibilities, sure. At this point, my view on you and Mat really boils down to: -I think Mat is Village. Probably my strongest read right now. -Not so sure about you, for reasons of the Wiz vote stability, but: I'm not going to sit down and listen to people blatantly mischaracterise my playstyle or lie about it and just take it. That's the line I draw, because I dislike letting misinformation spread. Nothing against you or Mat. Anyway, I'm going to not engage with these further because engaging isn't going to do anything other than remove misinformation or outright disinformation from circulation. I remind you you even find pretending to be a different player in an anon game sus. I'm just going to quote Laozi and move on: Quote “If a made-up mind (cheng xin) counts as a teacher, then who doesn’t have a teacher? Why should it just be the self-chosen experts on the order of things who have them? Stupid people would have them, too. But to have right and wrong before you’ve made up your mind—that’s like leaving for Yue today and getting there yesterday! That’s like saying what isn’t is. What isn’t is? Even the spiritual sage Yu couldn’t make sense of that.” (Ivanhoe & Van Norden, 2001). More productively: 2 hours ago, Matrim's Dice said: I viewed those v reads as more the ‘long posts = v’ kind as opposed to the ‘I know Kas’ meta real well’ kind based off who was reading him that way. Fair, and that's a position I'd agree with disliking and the need to avoid. 2 hours ago, Matrim's Dice said: Part of holding onto it is that the reaction it gets is e reads on me and I think that’s dumb and I want to prove a point but that in itself is a bad reason and it won’t do any good if Kas is v I kinda think that's a ridiculous position to have tbh because your holding onto it is what's giving me a V read on you so I don't really know why they're taking the opposite view of it. It's especially surprising coming to me from Tani, because I think one of the last few games she played was LG84, so that should've definitely been a point of caution. (At the same time, I've been holding back a bit as she's gone missing for a while.) Like I'm probably happy to revise you if I am somehow alive late in the game, and things are going Very Wrong but I just don't see E!you brawling with me non-stop about this, nor do I see this mattering enough to E!you to do more than the path of least resistance. I also feel E!you tends to go for more classic responses (cf. the time you tried to outline your Araris progression) and backs down faster, so I at least am personally happy for our clashes because they've reinforced my V!Mat read. And as much as I joked about it in the LG90 dead doc, I am genuinely willing to believe that V!you is more apt to tunnel than E!you. This has to do with the reactivity problem we both have, and that just paradoxically makes me feel comfortable with my current read ¯\_(ツ)_/¯ I recognise it's not as comforting to you, but as awful as this sounds, that's a you problem, not a me problem, so I don't have to worry about that. I do get baited into arguing when I feel my playstyle is being mischaracterised badly but other than that, I am at least happy I do not need to worry about you and can go try to work out the other players I have my eye on: currently the <Szeth, Elk, Bookwyrm> pool. Probably Xino and Archer somewhere in the vicinity. I agree with you about the likely need to flip at least one CW (Chana? Please?) and feel that's sort of the problem with the tie landscape we ended up with. I've hit the point where I kind of find it unproductive to look at player reasons because everyone just says 'for the ties' and I'm fairly certain not everyone's motives was pure ¯\_(ツ)_/¯ 30 minutes ago, InfiniteInsanity said: I also definitely see where Bookwyrm is being considered suspicious. But most people only voted Wizard for the sake of wanting a tie right? What's your view on Bookwyrm right now? Worth asking the thread: anyone received an unexpected PM? For the matter, @Ookla the Perpetual - what's your view on things right now? Edited to add: 4 hours ago, Ookla the Forgotten said: Uh... to tie. Now that you mention that, yeah that probably wasn't my smartest play >.< Further question for you. You said you moved onto Bookwyrm to tie. But you moved off only a couple of posts later, very quickly. What changed, and why? Edited November 24, 2022 by Kasimir Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mat Posted November 24, 2022 Report Share Posted November 24, 2022 (edited) 47 minutes ago, Kasimir said: I'm not going to sit down and listen to people blatantly mischaracterise my playstyle or lie about it and just take it. That's the line I draw, because I dislike letting misinformation spread. Nothing against you or Mat I get that and I respect that— I hope you know that any mischaracterization was unintentional I’m planning on like hard resetting tomorrow to clear my head and get more reads overall. 47 minutes ago, Kasimir said: What's your view on Bookwyrm right now? Worth asking the thread: anyone received an unexpected PM? Less than it was before JNV made their case, lol. Kinda hovering in negative but I feel guilty about it for some reason, like they shouldn’t be. What’s that supposed to mean >> Like an in thread one? Edited November 24, 2022 by Matrim's Dice Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Unknown Ajah Posted November 24, 2022 Report Share Posted November 24, 2022 59 minutes ago, Archer said: TUN apparently slipping that they don't open PM's is villagey. Don't open PMs? I have opened every singe spoiler that has so much as been thought to have been put in this thread. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Turtle Posted November 24, 2022 Report Share Posted November 24, 2022 ugh i’m not gonna be able to be on at all until morning/d2 will answer the people @ing me d2 ig Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kasimir Posted November 24, 2022 Report Share Posted November 24, 2022 21 minutes ago, Matrim's Dice said: I get that and I respect that— I hope you know that any mischaracterization was unintentional I’m planning on like hard resetting tomorrow to clear my head and get more reads overall. Yeah I respect that too, as the Tunnel Master of LG90. Tunnel Master...and then some. I just don't like people mischaracterising my playstyle, intentional or otherwise and feel obligated to correct it 22 minutes ago, Matrim's Dice said: Less than it was before JNV made their case, lol. Kinda hovering in negative but I feel guilty about it for some reason, like they shouldn’t be. Wait, so you now see him as more E than before, or less? I'm more at the mixed signals part, splitting the difference gives me a null. 24 minutes ago, Matrim's Dice said: What’s that supposed to mean >> Like a in thread one? No. I hesitated about whether to ask but as in, the inbox sort. I don't really know I can guarantee whoever opened it is Village, so whenever that happens, my default is sort of to just throw it to the thread to ask overall. 8 minutes ago, The Unknown Novel said: Don't open PMs? I have opened every singe spoiler that has so much as been thought to have been put in this thread. The true spoiler menace. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ashbringer Posted November 24, 2022 Author Report Share Posted November 24, 2022 Turn ends in 15 minutes! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ashbringer Posted November 24, 2022 Author Report Share Posted November 24, 2022 Time! Rollover should be shortly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ashbringer Posted November 24, 2022 Author Report Share Posted November 24, 2022 (edited) LG91 Day 2: Wei Down We Go After the Truthless's death, cooler heads began to break up the crowd. But still, people were tense, and tense people made rash decisions. Such as going to their homes or stationed corners without checking up on one another, without making the precautions that would fit the time of war. Illwei had gone to their quarters alone, tossing a small stone in hand. One they were only now being accustomed to carrying. However, they were too focused on it, and didn't see the danger. Illwei was found the next morning, dead. How was hard to tell, but the stone they'd carried marked them as an Honorblade Bearer of Shinovar. The first to fall. Illwei was killed! They were a member of the Shin High Council and the Bearer of Paliah's Honorblade! Paliah's Honorblade is available to be claimed by Illwei's killer! If it remains unclaimed, it will be redistributed at the end of the Day Turn. Minor rule clarification, because I just now noticed this: in the event someone uses Gravitation or Transformation the same turn their Honorblade for doing so is Reclaimed, tentatively that action still goes through, despite being lower on the OoA (due to needing to be able to for Transformation to find the current Blade holder). Unless me changing OoA things is frowned upon, I'll go with those 2 Surges still work on a reclaimed turn alongside the other 8. The Day Turn will end on November 25th at 11:00 PM PST. Happy Thanksgiving! Player List: Spoiler @ookla the POKE VOTE / Turtle- Evelt-son-Urtal @Araris Valerian - Hadrian-son-Penrod @The Unknown Novel - Dali-son-Nar The Wandering Wizard - Tweedle-son-son-Dumb - Shin High Council @Matrim's Dice - Dazi-son-ron @JNV - Jen-child-Verin @Ookla the Perpetual / The Bookwyrm - Rizam-son-Azram @Shining Silhouette - Cheshire-son-Cat @Ookla the Forgotten / xinoehp512 - Jet-son-Blanc @Kasimir - Kvaseth-son-Wysan @InfiniteInsanity @Chantara @_Stick_ @Cash67 - Egg-son-Chicken Illwei - Shin High Council, Bearer of Paliah's Honorblade @Archer - Tweedle-son-Dee @Alvron - Izzy-daughter-Ammi @Tani - Daalna @Elkanah - Sun-son-son-Tsu @Ookla the Omniscient / Szeth_Pancakes Edited November 25, 2022 by Ashbringer Still got a day 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stick. Posted November 24, 2022 Report Share Posted November 24, 2022 (edited) I’ll start Elkanah There’s inconsistencies among their posts - here they admit that they won’t exact favour a tie in presence of vote manipulation: Quote I don't know. Vote manip makes me a little less likely to enjoy the tie. And then twenty minutes later they’re trying their hardest to get the votes to tie. They also made a point about being very suspicious of bookwyrm here: Quote I haven't seen any answers from Bookwyrm to change my mind, and there have been some comments on how this is similar to other games where he was an elim. It could still just be the way Bookwyrm plays regardless of alignment, but it is the most suspicious thing I've seen. And here: Quote He's my highest suspect at the moment. Aside from a lot of the suspicion here seeming to have been borrowed from other players, them deciding to vote Wiz to get a tie instead of pursuing this very strong suspicion does not sit right with me. While skimming their posts I also came across this: Quote Good RP. Are you claiming to hold an honorblade, though? It’s just an odd question to ask and makes me wonder what kind of reply they were hoping for, and also whether this is something you’d even think to ask when you’re in a village mindset. Like, take Cin’s coinshot softclaim in RP in LG90 - ONLY the elims picked up on that and none of the villagers. This is because the villagers aren’t consciously looking for this stuff imo. edit: and also I don’t think any of their posts talked about wiz at all (their vote on them was in the name of ties) - as far as I know they never flagged any of wiz’s posts as suspicious so the “I don’t trust wiz” kinda came out of nowhere too edit2: and yes I would agree that Alv/elkanah are not teamed Edited November 24, 2022 by _Stick_ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kasimir Posted November 24, 2022 Report Share Posted November 24, 2022 (edited) K. First thing first, Shaman should keep an eye out on any changes in the list, especially if there's a new player that shows up on it, or a player who acquires a second Blade. I don't consider Honorblade passing to have been likely at least Village-side, so minimally: keep an eye out for changes. If I'm understanding the rules correctly, you can't tell whether it's the killer or someone who randomly acquired the Blade when the killer declined to, so use your best judgement, but good to keep a weather eye out. Right. Not the NKA guy (hi Ash >>) but: Illwei is an odd kill target but also not. More or less uncontested Village, and an analytical powerhouse. Odd because this is a N1 high profile kill, which is not exactly meta. (Note to self here: go look up N1 kill decisions for the last couple games.) Mildly relieved I committed not to overthink Illwei. Possible fear kill? Illwei just came off a banner game in LG90. Well, the plausible reasons I could see at this stage: (1) control kill, (2) fear kill, (3) suspicion kill, i.e. Illwei had mentioned one of them as a suspicion. (1) If we think control kill, probably somewhere in the ballpark of: <Kas, Mat, maaaaybe Stick, Alv, Elk, Archer, JNV.> Happy to hear objections if you think I am incorrectly characterising your kill meta. I sure know I didn't do it, and I V!read Mat so am not going there. Lightly V read JNV though I don't have that much to go off, so I can leave them asterisked in the pool if need be. This gives me a <Stick, Alv, Elk, Archer, JNV> pool. Tentatively, very slightly lean towards the Stick/Elk/Archer end of the pool. I accept I probably am not reading Alv right, or maybe this is coloured by my wanting him to be Village so I am happy to hear about why I am mistaken on this score. I'll commit to checking their NK kill decisions after classes tonight. Or World Cup. Whichever. (2) If we think fear kill... Theoretically: Let's copy the entire list out first. <Turtle, Araris, TUN, Mat, JNV, Bookwyrm, Silho, Xino, Kas, Insanity, Chantara, Stick, Cash, Archer, Alv, Tani, Elk, Szeth.> Taking out people who would probably not D1 fearkill Illwei qua Illwei: <Turtle, Araris, TUN, Mat, JNV, Bookwyrm, Silho, Xino, Kas, Insanity, Chantara, Stick, Cash, Archer, Alv, Tani, Elk, Szeth.> (3) Suspicions-wise, we're looking at the set of: <Tani, Szeth, Turtle, Alv, Silho.> IMO, more likely to be <Tani, Szeth, Alv, Turtle>, with Illwei questioning Turtle N1, so italicised since that isn't outright suspicion. I think most of Illwei's D1 is not direct, outright sus and the most prominent would've been Alv, and then the mention of E!Tani and E!Szeth on N1. Not too much commonalities except via Turtle (questionable), Silho, and JNV (also italicised.) Sigh please don't judge me too hard Ash I'm trying my best :/ @_Stick_ - Do not disagree with this one, but want to ask if your view is informed in part by your V!read of Bookwyrm, as I notice part of your case is functionally based off Elk sussing Bookwyrm but then not pursuing it aggressively. Going to go onto Szeth for the moment. I accept it could be a run of bad luck, but Szeth performing a self-presing tie onto a (now) known Villager despite the flak Bookwyrm was drawing is something that doesn't look quite right IMO. Edited to add: @_Stick_, for that matter, what's behind your last minute Wiz vote? I figured you planned to break the tie, but what was going through your head at that point? Edited November 24, 2022 by Kasimir Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Archer Posted November 24, 2022 Report Share Posted November 24, 2022 TUN has been opening all the top secret PMs. Shame on them Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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