Long Game 91: A Fresh Start in Shinovar

[Shining Silhouette]

1 hour ago, Kasimir said:

I think Insanity should definitely attract some pressure next cycle for that very stable vote on Mat, and Silho should as well.

Truuuuuue

Mat

Okay literally did a ctrl-f scan for mentions of my name and now I'll do another read through

[Kasimir]

6 minutes ago, Alvron said:

Let's not correct that.  I really don't want your name on my list.  Both of us actually.  I targeted Devotary and because Steel supercharged me it took you out as well.

Quite agreed! I'd really not rather be there, either

2 minutes ago, The Unknown Novel said:

I agree with you kinda, and if it were any other person I would fully agree, but I think Archer just does this/seems like he's doing this sometimes. I know for a fact I've exed him for it before when he was v.

Yeah, well, his snap-vote to Szeth has confused me a bit. So I am still leaning Evil on Archer but also semi-undecided.

Edited to add:

6 minutes ago, Alvron said:

edit: Turns out II was wrong.  I did target you not Devotary..   

That's fine, I don't maintain kill lists  

Edited November 23, 2022 by Kasimir

[Shining Silhouette]

@Kasimir Why the heck are you self voting?

[Kasimir]

Just now, Shining Silhouette said:

@Kasimir Why the heck are you self voting?

Szeth was offering pizza. I haven't had pizza in two years  

[Shining Silhouette]

Just now, Kasimir said:

Szeth was offering pizza. I haven't had pizza in two years  

Woah 

So it's not one of those dramatic self-votes like it was in was it LG89?

[Araris Valerian]

Okay, it’s late and I haven’t really caught up, but Xino Bookwyrm

I’m gonna go with my early read while also blaspheming a bit against Alv, which is nearly as fun as killing him.

[Kasimir]

55 minutes ago, Shining Silhouette said:

Woah 

So it's not one of those dramatic self-votes like it was in was it LG89?

I suppose you could always philosophically argue that all self-votes are dramatic but no.

I wanted pizza, it was a bribe too good to ignore

[Elkanah]

I caught up again! What do I do now? 

Sorry for going radio silent. I was trying to catch up on all the work I wasn't doing yesterday because I was having fun here. 

Probably time to control-f all my mentions.

Back soon I hope

[Mat]

2 hours ago, Kasimir said:

Incidentally, yes Mat, theoretically there are LHFs everywhere on D1 but Bookwyrm is the equivalent of Thaid for me, that's how awful that train feels.

Ok, that makes sense. And I confess I sort of agree, I specifically dodged mentioning Bookwyrm in my ‘catch-up’ post because a decent chunk of my vote there was to see if Elk would switch or not (essentially checking for e/e, you can also see that I tagged Elk in that post) but he never showed and I’m out of time ¯\_(ツ)_/¯ 

Bookwyrm

Szeth

Of the current options this is my favorite. If Cash became a wagon I wouldn’t be sad, same with Elk.

2 hours ago, Kasimir said:

@Matrim's Dice, I'd like to know your opinion on Archer's Wiz vote, and if you'd potentially consider an E!Archer world, given your current views on my position on Wiz.

I saw later that this was sorta invalidated by the discovery of Alv’s sus, but I guess more than anything else I find it interesting you want me to consider e!Archer for the same reason I considered e!you. If your point is ‘if one, why not the other’, then wouldn’t that just make you evil? :P.

Edit: Hey @Elkanah who just ninja’d me, do me a favor and respond to my previous tag before reading the rest of this post >>

Edited November 23, 2022 by Matrim's Dice

[Kasimir]

14 minutes ago, Matrim's Dice said:

If your point is ‘if one, why not the other’, then wouldn’t that just make you evil? :P.

Sure. But I know I'm Village and I don't actually mind flipping, seeing as that I'm happy enough to accept a pizza bribe  So this was more of a 'ok flip me if you need to, but after me, if you think this is a bad argument, could you please go consider an E!Archer world?' sort of contingency in my head. I'm rethinking somewhat thanks to the Archer swing to Szeth but I also do not like that original vote, so the only time I can advocate for my read is while I'm still alive. (I will admit part of this is the fact that given the current state of who I read Village, I am being forced to relook some of my initial reads, e.g. on Archer and Stick.)

But I don't know Alv's sus really invalidates it because he explicitly mentions it - in response to Archer's Wiz-Alv E/E claim - that he doesn't in fact suspect Archer. There was no mention of sus before that, let alone sus of Archer or defense of Wiz. The main point stands.

14 minutes ago, Matrim's Dice said:

I specifically dodged mentioning Bookwyrm in my ‘catch-up’ post because a decent chunk of my vote there was to see if Elk would switch or not (essentially checking for e/e, you can also see that I tagged Elk in that post) but he never showed and I’m out of time

RIP he just showed...

15 minutes ago, Elkanah said:

I caught up again! What do I do now? 

 Why are you asking the thread my dude  

Edited to add: I guess I'd say I find the Szeth vote a defeater because I struggle to see why E!Archer votes Szeth here. Just makes the tie bigger.

Edited November 23, 2022 by Kasimir

[Szeth_Pancakes]

you guyyyyys

we gotta keep the tie

*dramatic sigh*

Updated VC b/c procrastination:

• The Bookwyrm / Ookla the Perpetual (3): The Wandering Wizard, JNV, Araris Valerian
• Kasimir (3): Kasimir, Alvron, Szeth_Pancakes / Ookla the Omniscient
• Szeth_Pancakes / Ookla the Omniscient (4): The Unknown Novel, _Stick_, Archer, Matrim's Dice
• The Wandering Wizard (3): xinoeph512 / Ookla the Forgotten, Elkanah, Tani
• Matrim’s Dice (1): InfiniteInsanity
• Alvron (2): Illwei, Cash67

[Mat]

Just now, Ookla the Omniscient said:

you guyyyyys

we gotta keep the tie

*dramatic sigh*

Actually, we don’t ¯\_(ツ)_/¯ 

[Kasimir]

I mean, there's a good chance Alv will still vote to ensure a tie. It's Alv. No one except maybe me might beat him to the punch, given our timezones ¯\_(ツ)_/¯ 

But do I want to make Alv mad?

Hmm.

Edited to add: And tbf, pizza. Gotta stay bought. Pizza is delicious.

Edited November 23, 2022 by Kasimir

[Ashbringer]

1.5 hours left in the turn!

[Szeth_Pancakes]

Just now, Matrim's Dice said:

Actually, we don’t ¯\_(ツ)_/¯ 

*murder*

My reasoning is this. A lot of SE games, the village loses to lack of information. (Due to inactivity or otherwise; doesn't change my point.) If we have a tie, that would at the very least help us sus out vote manip and at the most eliminate a whole host of people from the elim list.

This isn't for my self pres. I can do that on my own if I so choose.

[Kasimir]

Just now, Ookla the Omniscient said:

My reasoning is this. A lot of SE games, the village loses to lack of information. (Due to inactivity or otherwise; doesn't change my point.) If we have a tie, that would at the very least help us sus out vote manip and at the most eliminate a whole host of people from the elim list.

Honestly, I thought that was a bit sus, and also thought that it was very you, so I wrote that off.

We basically know with high certitude given what Ash said that all Honorblades start in the game, i.e. there are two vote manips. How does a tie in this particular instance help us eliminate "a whole host of people" from the Elim list? How do we ID the vote manips? Does it really matter, since we know the vote manips already exist? (Look at Tyrian games - it's often very hard to tell early on whether a vote manip was hostile or not. In AG8, we took forever to realise all vote manips were Village.)

The Shaman also knows where the Honorblades are, meaning the Shaman expressly knows who has vote manip.

[Mat]

I get the reason, I just think it’s more useful leading up to EoD as opposed to actually going through. Which I guess right now isn’t a problem. But I’m signing off, keeping my vote. I hope Kas stops self voting and that you guys get an elim

@Kasimir— the Shaman just gets a list of who has the blades but not specifically which, iirc. So all they’d be able to tell is a pool of people the manip is in.

[Szeth_Pancakes]

1 minute ago, Kasimir said:

Honestly, I thought that was a bit sus, and also thought that it was very you, so I wrote that off.

We basically know with high certitude given what Ash said that all Honorblades start in the game, i.e. there are two vote manips. How does a tie in this particular instance help us eliminate "a whole host of people" from the Elim list? How do we ID the vote manips? Does it really matter, since we know the vote manips already exist? (Look at Tyrian games - it's often very hard to tell early on whether a vote manip was hostile or not. In AG8, we took forever to realise all vote manips were Village.)

The Shaman also knows where the Honorblades are, meaning the Shaman expressly knows who has vote manip.

I guess. I see my logic was flawed. But ties are good for determining motivation, and even if we aren't sure who's doing the vote manip it's still a little bit more data. And more dara is always better than less, right??

[Kasimir]

1 minute ago, Matrim's Dice said:

@Kasimir— the Shaman just gets a list of who has the blades but not specifically which, iirc. So all they’d be able to tell is a pool of people the manip is in.

Ah my bad, they get quantity, that's supposed to be the check against Blade accumulation.

Edited to add:

Just now, Ookla the Omniscient said:

I guess. I see my logic was flawed. But ties are good for determining motivation, and even if we aren't sure who's doing the vote manip it's still a little bit more data. And more dara is always better than less, right??

Yes and no. Voting is good for determining motivation. But say, if we went for a five way tie and one player flipped Village. Do we know anything about the other four trains? I would argue an Elim is likely happier risking 1/5 chances of getting lynched as compared to say, 1/2 or 1/3. And at a certain point, when everyone is placing votes to preserve the tie, everyone blends in. If all votes are given on an equally 'bad' basis, then how do you really decide which is good and which is bad? Everyone on the lethal train will point to people making equally bad votes on the other train. And the last thing you want to be baited into over the next couple of cycles is automatic 'lynch the CW.'

Thing about data is data quality also matters, yah? Otherwise you get GIGO - Garbage In, Garbage Out.

I don't disagree that ties can be informative - I generally agree with Mat that they're better mid-cycle or close to EoD. And I actually do not E!read you at the moment.

I will be fair and admit one could say the same of me in terms of the fact my vote is pretty nonsensical. But I have meta reasons for encouraging you to vote for me and agreeing to self-vote that I don't want to talk about at the moment. Hell, a lot of what I've been doing this game has been pretty meta.

Edited November 23, 2022 by Kasimir

[Ashbringer]

The Shaman doesn't learn who has which blades, but does learn quantity, yes. (I forget if I mentioned quantity in the LG91 rules, but that's how it ran LG72.)

[Chantara]

Alrighty, I came back to four pages of unread posts, and while I was catching up, a fifth one came along. It took a while to get through all of them, but I did it. There's a lot to unpack here and I have no idea where to start.

PIZZA! That's a good place to start! Good bribe. 10/10 approve of this method of persuasion (as long as 9 of them are me) Unfortunately, my general fear of angering Kas twice in three days, and thus getting under his microscope, is preventing me from joining you, so, you can keep your pizza. ;P

After scrolling and scrolling and scrolling, then forgetting everything, I'm here to vote.... Mat. By reason of Insanity's vote looking lonely.

[Kasimir]

1 minute ago, Chantara said:

Unfortunately, my general fear of angering Kas twice in three days, and thus getting under his microscope, is preventing me from joining you, so, you can keep your pizza. ;P

You can vote for me, that's fine

I will eventually talk Szeth into giving me a commission of an additional pizza for each person I persuade!  Pizza train!

[Szeth_Pancakes]

• The Bookwyrm / Ookla the Perpetual (3): The Wandering Wizard, JNV, Araris Valerian
• Kasimir (3): Kasimir, Alvron, Szeth_Pancakes / Ookla the Omniscient
• Szeth_Pancakes / Ookla the Omniscient (4): The Unknown Novel, _Stick_, Archer, Matrim's Dice
• The Wandering Wizard (3): xinoeph512 / Ookla the Forgotten, Elkanah, Tani
• Matrim’s Dice (2): InfiniteInsanity, Chantara
• Alvron (2): Illwei, Cash67

Just now, Kasimir said:

You can vote for me, that's fine

I will eventually talk Szeth into giving me a commission of an additional pizza for each person I persuade!  Pizza train!

Y'know what? Go for it. In defense of the tie.

[Stick.]

10 minutes ago, Ookla the Omniscient said:

you guyyyyys

we gotta keep the tie

*dramatic sigh*

Updated VC b/c procrastination:

• The Bookwyrm / Ookla the Perpetual (3): The Wandering Wizard, JNV, Araris Valerian
• Kasimir (3): Kasimir, Alvron, Szeth_Pancakes / Ookla the Omniscient
• Szeth_Pancakes / Ookla the Omniscient (4): The Unknown Novel, _Stick_, Archer, Matrim's Dice
• The Wandering Wizard (3): xinoeph512 / Ookla the Forgotten, Elkanah, Tani
• Matrim’s Dice (1): InfiniteInsanity
• Alvron (2): Illwei, Cash67

Close votes. Not fully caught up but I'm good with my vote where it is, and I would rather bookwyrm not die out of everyone on that list. Are all kas votes joke votes? I need to go back and see what the case on wiz was

Interested to see how any vote manip plays out ;eyes;

[Kasimir]

4 minutes ago, _Stick_ said:

Close votes. Not fully caught up but I'm good with my vote where it is, and I would rather bookwyrm not die out of everyone on that list. Are all kas votes joke votes? I need to go back and see what the case on wiz was

Listen >>

There's a good reason for it.

Szeth was sus of me and I encouraged him to follow his suspicions to the logical conclusion. Then I voted me because he offered delicious pizza and I regret nothing. (There are...okay reasons too I swear.) And then Alv voted me for blaspheming against the Sacred Coin and also because ties and pizza and I solicited him onto the wagon.

You know how Alv is about the Gods of Luck and Chance. I accept that this is serious for him, it's definitely serious for Szeth, and it's dead serious for me!

Edited to add: Stick's view on Bookwyrm is probably the biggest outlier I can think of so far as it's outright positive.

Edited November 23, 2022 by Kasimir