Long Game 91: A Fresh Start in Shinovar

[The Wandering Wizard Savant]

That one's almost the realy VC, the only thing that is off is that Stick has voted for Szeth.

[Matrim's Dice Most Ancient]

2 minutes ago, Illwei said:

no he isn't, But if he was would you call him an Elim? 

The last time this happened was e!TUN, so it depends on whether that would make him want to do it more or less the next time he was elim. I’m not sure which but I do think that v!TUN probably wouldn’t self vote. This is all irrelevant of course.

[Illwei Shade]

1 minute ago, The Wandering Wizard said:

That one's almost the realy VC, the only thing that is off is that Stick has voted for Szeth.

I don't have that movement in my notes

[Kasimir Nightwatcher]

Turns out I now burn through sedatives so fast I just woke up five hours after a double dose. Whoops.

6 hours ago, Araris Valerian said:

Always have a niggling suspicion but never do anything about it?

Hmm. Not wrong.

6 hours ago, _Stick_ said:

Genuine question to anybody with an answer - How likely is E!Araris to deliberately mix two players up if he's teammates with one of them?

Possible, but no way to ascribe a probability to it IMO. But what's more important is I can see it coming from both E! and V!Araris, and I think Araris did mention an aggravating factor previously that currently puts me in mind of AG8 - family stuff, in the sign-up thread. Recall he had some early AG8 weirdness but no mix-up so I am not fully confident of this but could see this factoring in. No real opinion on Araris atm on my part.

6 hours ago, ookla the POKE VOTE said:

i know illwei likes to change around their style but this feels much more like v!illwei rn

Have you seen her run thread control as an Elim? I never have. I guess there was LG74 but that doesn't feel relevant here, and that was more clashing with people than thread control. Her style has also evolved since. Still feeling alright with leaning V!Illwei for engagement at the moment.

5 hours ago, Ookla the Omniscient said:

Though… a motif throughout a lot of your posts has been “don’t sus people for changing playstyles…”

Yep. Mostly meta reasons for this. Again, I can link you to posts on this in past SE games but one of the reasons we used to have a player retention problem was sussing players for changing playstyles. I also sort of tasted that before because I got sussed for not retaining my Elim playstyle as a Villager (this was 2014, ages ago, I was learning how to play Village...) so I can understand where it is annoying. I think it's a fine line to walk, but also remember Lotus feeling nervous about changing her playstyle to something she wanted to try. Wilson also got badly bitten by it when trying to switch to a less analytical playstyle and one more fun for her. Think it's part of keeping the SE community a good place to be in  

For instance, check out this conversation between Mist and Alv here:

This is something I am happy to stand my ground on regardless of alignment. To recap what I've said, I think it's different from a tell, and I think that deliberately being obscure and unhelpful with your playstyle can be more alignment indicative. What you really want here is to be able to make a judgement on whether the player is working in good faith, e.g. LG84 Baker, who despite committing to only making posts with photos of baked goods inside, still managed to convey information by quoting and by voting. (He also later dropped that within the faction doc with Tani.) The other example if you read Alv's post was Zunn the Mad, where Alv explicitly IDed what he didn't like about Steel while staying in character. (Can't remember if Steel was Evil - I just remember it's the E!Orlok game with a double WGG.)

4 hours ago, The Unknown Novel said:

What is the decision factor here? You stated earlier on that Alv feels v, but that might be based on 2014, did you remember something or what?

I actually didn't. If you followed my commentary, I stated that that's par for the course for Alv and I didn't feel anything off...Ah. Bad phrasing. One sec.

7 hours ago, Kasimir said:

See, the thing is, this reads like normal Alv to me. Except on re-reading, I have no idea where my baseline for normal Alv comes from anymore. There's probably a decent answer to be made along the lines that it comes from say, 2014 but damned if I know.

I just felt it was a null for me - I could see V!Alv and E!Alv both doing it and it was within normal Alv parameters. Alv takes his kill lists seriously, and I recall him going for - I think Hael's head? There was a headhunt for that? And parts from other players, so I didn't see it as being an outlier and anything that'd cry for a read for.

What shifted the needle for me a bit was re-reading the brace of I think six games: QF27 (well, the Zunn one he linked), LG86, LG90, LG73 (admittedly an outlier and one I didn't ascribe too much weight to), LG78, and MR51. In general, I felt that you could see V!Alvron engaging despite the limitations of his playstyle. I also didn't like Archer trying to clear Alv for doing something that both E and V Alv would do, and Alv allowing it through. I felt V!Alv was more likely to flag that, which was the point of me linking to that LG90 post where he explicitly tells Mat not to derpclear him.

That's really more or less it for me. I did flip the coin, just for the heck of it, because Alv is a prophet of the Gods of Luck and Chance, and the coin said to move to Alv, so I decided it was fate and just did it. @Matrim's Dice - I've spelled it out explicitly here since I see you ninjaed me.

Should note E!me doesn't take Alv out C1. I don't do that to the guy who taught me how to Elim and my first SE teammate.

...I am not sure I feel okay with voting Alv D1 either, honestly and I go back and forth on this one. But I will be the first to acknowledge that would be purely based off my regard and respect for Alv.

1 hour ago, Chantara said:

Because I literally have no memory of anything. It was TUN's comment that stuck in my head.

Fair enough.

15 minutes ago, Matrim's Dice said:

-Legit no clue why Kas went after Wiz, and I only kiiiinda follow his Alv progression but sympathize with TUN more. I could see e!Kas wanting Alv out early, a similar thing to him going after me, but in saying this I'm asking for a 'that's not how e!me does it' and that may or may not be true, and I don't want to start anything again xD Paranoia is there and I'm shelving it since I don't have anything beyond lingering feelings and the vague notion that his progression is specific in its direction.

 

This is odd to me as I've explicitly spelled out in this post my reasons for going onto Wiz. I understand it is a long post, but if you don't read the post, it is no surprise you want to say that the progression is odd and there is no reason for going after Wiz.

7 hours ago, Kasimir said:

Hmm. Ok. So the thing that was holding me up with regard to Wiz is that he just didn't really seem engaged or interested in the game. I'm not sure he is even here, but I stand by what I said in QF63 when defending him to JNV that I think the attitude switch between V!Wiz and E!Wiz was visceral. I don't know how much of that was a function of being busy and how much of that was just a function of being a big difference from his Evil play. 

I also think that the difference was less sharp in BT3, but it was still a departure there. 

To be very clear, I think the engagement difference is a Village tell for Wiz. I don't feel good about Wiz when it's not there.

This does feel like shopping for an easy sus on Mat's part, to be honest.

17 minutes ago, Illwei said:

Can you deal with Normal!Illwei?

Honestly, I don't know if I can. But LG89 was an especial low for me, and I think it is important to me to try to be fair to you. You saw that get mentioned in the LG90 dead doc, and it came out a bit in my being determined to not overthink you and ascribe normal Village reads to you in LG90. It is still possible we will brawl eventually in this game. But I honestly signed up with just one goal which is to not pick another fight with you. I don't think it is healthy for SE if any game in which we are both playing has a decent chance of turning into a heated threadbrawl and require IM intervention eventually.

There's also other factors, which is that I think I have a better understanding of why I react negatively when we brawl now. This should keep me from escalating things, but we'll see. It's not really something for thread consumption, as I think it is something more suited to privacy, but I will be happy to mention more of it when either of us is dead if that's something you feel needs explanation.

I am going to see if there is anything I missed due to the multiple ninjas.

Edited to add:

3 minutes ago, Illwei said:

I don't have that movement in my notes

7 hours ago, _Stick_ said:

That Alv statement is very ironic considering your own vote xD Szeth

Then the Archives are incomplete.

Edited November 22, 2022 by Kasimir

[Ashbringer Mistborn]

I do have Stick voting on Szeth, doesn’t appear like that vote changed.

[Illwei Shade]

3 minutes ago, Kasimir said:

There's also other factors, which is that I think I have a better understanding of why I react negatively when we brawl now. This should keep me from escalating things, but we'll see. It's not really something for thread consumption, as I think it is something more suited to privacy, but I will be happy to mention more of it when either of us is dead if that's something you feel needs explanation.

Sorry I meant that as a lighthearted comment, not like, instigating anything. 

It's probably obvious I've been trying to give you more space in recent games. 

Just now, Ashbringer said:

I do have Stick voting on Szeth, doesn’t appear like that vote changed.

JFDkljfhsadkjfad

Edited November 22, 2022 by Illwei

[Kasimir Nightwatcher]

Just now, Illwei said:

Sorry I meant that as a lighthearted comment, not like, instigating anything. 

It's probably obvious I've been trying to give you more space in recent games. 

Yeah. I'm trying to do the same here. Hopefully succeeding.

[Illwei Shade]

Oh, it was hidden in the middle of a wallpost. That makes sense. 

EDIT:

*posts two incorrect votecounts*

And we do a little misinformation

Edited November 22, 2022 by Illwei

[Kasimir Nightwatcher]

One further point I could say I suppose: on my actual re-readthrough (also captured in the long post), I gave Wiz a small chunk of Village credit for forgetting vote manip. It's one ability I don't see an Elim being as ready to forget, especially with how much Wiz was up to date with the rules in QF63 and the BT. I don't like to derpclear, but it also put him ahead of Alv on my calculus in terms of who I'd prefer not to vote on.

7 hours ago, Kasimir said:

On 11/22/2022 at 4:06 AM, The Wandering Wizard said:

I completely forgot about vote manip >.<

I actually like this a bit. I feel it's a slip a Villager is more likely to make than an Elim.

Here.

@Araris Valerian - Current thoughts on Bookwyrm?

[Matrim's Dice Most Ancient]

13 minutes ago, Kasimir said:

This is odd to me as I've explicitly spelled out in this post my reasons for going onto Wiz. I understand it is a long post, but if you don't read the post, it is no surprise you want to say that the progression is odd and there is no reason for going after Wiz.

I read it, and I saw the part about his engagement being different, but in my opinion activity and engagement can be affected by alignment, but is more often affected by other circumstance (see: me right now) and so I hesitate to use it as its own case. That’s why I said your progression seemed like it was directed. It felt like you either decided to vote Wiz and then found a reason, or decided to reuse past arguments like you did with saying I felt reactive.

[Ashbringer Mistborn]

• The Wandering Wizard (3): xinoeph512 / Ookla the Forgotten, Archer, Elkanah
• The Bookwyrm / Ookla the Perpetual (3): The Wandering Wizard, Matrim’s Dice, JNV
• Szeth_Pancakes / Ookla the Omnicient (2): The Unknown Novel, _Stick_
• Alvron (2): Kasimir, Illwei
• Matrim’s Dice (2): Shining Silhouette, InfiniteInsanity
• xinoeph512 / Ookla the Forgotten (1): Araris Valerian

Hopefully that’s right.

[ookla the POKE VOTE Oldblood]

24 minutes ago, Kasimir said:

Have you seen her run thread control as an Elim? I never have. I guess there was LG74 but that doesn't feel relevant here, and that was more clashing with people than thread control. Her style has also evolved since. Still feeling alright with leaning V!Illwei for engagement at the moment.

er, i don’t have a good enough memory for that apparently 

also i’ve officially completed two games on mu now so that’s cool

(my win streak is still intact)

[Illwei Shade]

Just now, ookla the POKE VOTE said:

er, i don’t have a good enough memory for that apparently 

also i’ve officially completed two games on mu now so that’s cool

(my win streak is still intact)

help test me

[ookla the POKE VOTE Oldblood]

1 minute ago, Illwei said:

help test me

help test you?

[Kasimir Nightwatcher]

5 minutes ago, Matrim's Dice said:

decided to vote Wiz and then found a reason

So why does E!me decide to be the fourth voter on a three vote Wiz train in your theory that it's reasons-shopping, when I could stay on Chantara without worry? What is so essential about a Wiz ML I have to force it through, and this early?

If your theory is that I was trying to save Bookwyrm, why does E!me sit back and be okay with Bookwyrm doing the same sus things, knowing how early he got himself caught in QF63?

5 minutes ago, Matrim's Dice said:

but in my opinion activity and engagement can be affected by alignment, but is more often affected by other circumstance (see: me right now) and so I hesitate to use it as its own case.

It could very well be circumstance-related. I am not fully sure if it is, but this is also D1, and I don't think there's an objection to applying pressure to Wiz on the basis of something he has shown as a Villager being absent here. You yourself can be criticised for going after a LHF train. This would probably be more blameworthy if I'd final-voted him on this basis, but you of all people should know I don't final vote this early.

Edited to add: I reiterate that QF63 V!me and LG90 V!me both expressed the view that the respective Elim teams would, if present, provide better tactical support to how their newer members engaged with the thread. I think this should be very revealing of how E!me would react to this situation, especially since that's the assumption I work with that most of this thread does not share.

Edited November 22, 2022 by Kasimir

[Illwei Shade]

LG91: Illwei/Turtle

Spoiler

Quote

This is a good time to emphasize that Pizza isn't god and although he caught the wolves he also incorrectly scumread lily and lemon both of which were obvtown and he didn't ever have all four wolves in his poe i'll give scumreading generico a pass because he's generico and they were also the two loudest voices at the time but still. 

 

[ookla the POKE VOTE Oldblood]

LG91: Illwei/Turtle

Spoiler

Spoiler

yeah point prince was the god in that game lol

also these pms are really funny to me for some reason

wiat were you spectating that game or were you in the game

edit: memory was also god

maybe they’re both shards

 

(edit inside of pm)

Edited November 22, 2022 by ookla the POKE VOTE

[Cash67 Misting]

STORMS ALL THE ANALYSIS

Anyway after reading everything imma see if I can make a few more tie decisions votes  appear by voting Alvron. Everything is better in threes, even threes.   

[Illwei Shade]

LG91: Illwei/Turtle

Spoiler

Spoiler

I was just speccing it im friends with rabbit

 

[Matrim's Dice Most Ancient]

8 minutes ago, Kasimir said:

So why does E!me decide to be the fourth voter on a three vote Wiz train in your theory that it's reasons-shopping, when I could stay on Chantara without worry? What is so essential about a Wiz ML I have to force it through, and this early?

If your theory is that I was trying to save Bookwyrm, why does E!me sit back and be okay with Bookwyrm doing the same sus things, knowing how early he got himself caught in QF63?

I don’t think e!you has to have voted Wiz because his ML is essential, there’s plenty of reasons to change a vote. Maybe you didn’t want to hang around on a low poster all alone. Maybe you wanted to have a presence on a main train. Maybe you did want to move it away from teammate Bookwyrm, and hadn’t addressed it earlier because you wanted to be unlinked and we’re hoping it’d go away. I don’t necessarily think you are paired, but I don’t think you can say that e!you wouldn’t let e!Book get sussed as it’s not really your choice if people suspect him.

Edit: And maybe you’re a villager, I’m not discounting that, believe me :P.

That Cash vote. Much eh. What’s your reason for voting Alv? @Cash67

Edited November 22, 2022 by Matrim's Dice

[ookla the POKE VOTE Oldblood]

LG91: Illwei/Turtle

Spoiler

Spoiler

oh ok lol

that game was… interesting

 

i enjoyed the talk about french onion soup

and it’s nice i caught annulus in the end there even if it had no bearing on the game

the ai generated images were scary though :p.

edit: also setup was definitely townsided and i’m glad i didn’t rand w, but like there’s a reason it was called ‘help test 3’

maybe it’s mu’s version of BTs

 

 

Edited November 22, 2022 by ookla the POKE VOTE
edit in spoiler

[Kasimir Nightwatcher]

Just now, Matrim's Dice said:

I don’t necessarily think you are paired, but I don’t think you can say that e!you wouldn’t let e!Book get sussed as it’s not really your choice if people suspect him.

I point out that Bookwyrm is a LHF train again. Do you disagree? Do you think that Bookwyrm opportunistically voting was not sus as all hell? Do you deny that this was exactly what got him attention in QF63? My very first line in the Elim doc would be to advise Bookwyrm to do exactly what Araris and I caution in our Elim doctrine: stay low, don't be flashy, pick a train and stick to it. Perhaps you will point out this is mayoring and Bookwyrm could tell me to get lost; very well, I don't have a response to that, except to note that I generally phrase my thoughts in a stronger manner when I believe a teammate is a loose cannon who is going to cause trouble.

2 minutes ago, Matrim's Dice said:

there’s plenty of reasons to change a vote. Maybe you didn’t want to hang around on a low poster all alone. Maybe you wanted to have a presence on a main train.

Except again, what is the incentive here? Didn't want to hang around on a low poster all alone? What's wrong with that? You are now offering speculations without even being able to make a plausibility assessment of why E!Kas would find those possibilities attractive, and I honestly think you are either Mat tunnelling or Evil, because you are not bothering to make a single likelihood assessment and are entirely focused on throwing possibilities.

Want a presence on a main train? If so, why didn't I check the train numbers? Everyone knows a train that gathers speed too fast looks wrong.

Let me return this question to you: you don't like the Wiz train. You don't like the Alv train. Is there a single train who isn't Bookwyrm that you would currently support, and if so, which is it, and if not, why the hell are your suspicions so narrow?

[Illwei Shade]

LG91: Illwei/Turtle

Spoiler

Spoiler

It was a twice game, i tested out one of the setups they were thinking about using for hydra season last year and that- well, i guess it was a closer game but it's a twice game man

just wait til you didney worl

I will never

Dall-e images are great and the sad loss of rabbit resulted in us losing them forever

I maxed out my uses on it and got some lovely cursed images

Funnily enough though the French onion soup was a conversation between you and two elims tho lol

anyways back to the game

[Cash67 Misting]

4 minutes ago, Matrim's Dice said:

 

That Cash vote. Much eh. What’s your reason for voting Alv? @Cash67

a) Mainly looking at the people who were at 2 votes and seeing which one has the most sane/thought out voters 

B ) TIES

[Alvron Knight Radiant]

48 minutes ago, Kasimir said:

I just felt it was a null for me - I could see V!Alv and E!Alv both doing it and it was within normal Alv parameters. Alv takes his kill lists seriously, and I recall him going for - I think Hael's head? There was a headhunt for that? And parts from other players, so I didn't see it as being an outlier and anything that'd cry for a read for.

What shifted the needle for me a bit was re-reading the brace of I think six games: QF27 (well, the Zunn one he linked), LG86, LG90, LG73 (admittedly an outlier and one I didn't ascribe too much weight to), LG78, and MR51. In general, I felt that you could see V!Alvron engaging despite the limitations of his playstyle. I also didn't like Archer trying to clear Alv for doing something that both E and V Alv would do, and Alv allowing it through. I felt V!Alv was more likely to flag that, which was the point of me linking to that LG90 post where he explicitly tells Mat not to derpclear him.

That's really more or less it for me. I did flip the coin, just for the heck of it, because Alv is a prophet of the Gods of Luck and Chance, and the coin said to move to Alv, so I decided it was fate and just did it. @Matrim's Dice - I've spelled it out explicitly here since I see you ninjaed me.

Should note E!me doesn't take Alv out C1. I don't do that to the guy who taught me how to Elim and my first SE teammate.

And I got his head too.  Now if I can just my hands on Wyrms brain....

I did flag it and was going to respond but decided, 'screw it, if they haven't learnt not to clear me for being me by now then they'll deserve it when I do decide use it against them.'

I fully approve of this.  Flip a coin to decide if you want to vote for me or not.

Aww, it's for a similar reason that I can't kill you until C3. 
 

5 minutes ago, Cash67 said:

B ) TIES

Yay ties.  No one else vote.  Let us roll the dice and leave our fate to the Gods of Luck and Chance.