Turtle Posted November 11, 2022 Report Share Posted November 11, 2022 (edited) what edit: so if you used to have a silver knife it shows up? does that mean everyone whose flipped crewmember was vanilla? Edited November 11, 2022 by Turtle Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kasimir Posted November 11, 2022 Report Share Posted November 11, 2022 Turtle This is why I say it's never too late to re-eval >:( ffs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Turtle Posted November 11, 2022 Report Share Posted November 11, 2022 (edited) kas can i bribe u w cat photos? edit: lmao tags we’re 4 v 1 so ah shoot are we at lylo can i not die or do we need to yeet an elim Edited November 11, 2022 by Turtle Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kasimir Posted November 11, 2022 Report Share Posted November 11, 2022 (edited) 6 minutes ago, Turtle said: kas can i bribe u w cat photos? No, because I PMed JNV and made a solemn promise to avenge them if they were Village and they agreed. Motir ca'tra nau tracinya. Gra'tua cuun hett su dralshy'a. Edited to add: 6 minutes ago, Turtle said: are we at lylo I'm sure you know the answer to that! Edited November 11, 2022 by Kasimir Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Wandering Wizard Posted November 11, 2022 Report Share Posted November 11, 2022 Turtle it is. I don't have much time right now, but I'll relook over it when I have time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kasimir Posted November 11, 2022 Report Share Posted November 11, 2022 (edited) Ash NK is interesting. I'd've expected another Xino hit, but maybe they were tired of bouncing off Xino. Killing within the <me, Xino, Ash> set is reasonable: in any E!Turtle, E!Wiz, E!Xino world, killing out of the set helps flip one of <Wiz, Turtle.> The best information-denying play is to go kill in-set. Agree with Ash's reasoning on WGG/WBG unlikely. This points to within <Wiz, Turtle> set. Intuitively, two silver dust Elims is odd. Of course, Wiz could be lying. There's a world in which Wiz [Edit: Meant Bookwyrm] doesn't really have the time, but I still don't buy the choreography. And also, something I'd wondered: On 11/10/2022 at 4:41 AM, The Bookwyrm said: The Wandering Wizard - Null, maybe a slight village lean. Nothing about him has stood out to me this game, but I don't know whether that's because he isn't suspicious, or if he's trying to keep to himself. Kas - Villager. I haven't played much with Kas, but...there's something about his constant analyses that seem genuine. They're helpful. Turtle - Slight Elim lean. This one is primarily based on their voting, which seems to be tied with Xino. Granted, I voted the same way as both these people for the last two cycles, so...maybe it's not the best evidence, after all...? A Turtle-Xino team would make sense to me. Turtle has been posting enough to not seem suspicious in the same way as Xino and JNV, though. Xino - Slight Elim lean, for reason listed above, and also for the fact that we haven't seen them post much. I could be misreading, but....I think Xino is a safe bet. Ashbringer - Similar to Wizard; nothing stands out about their posts, so null with a slight village lean. JNV - Very slight elim lean. Primarily because they haven't been posting a lot, or because I haven't been paying attention. But their inactivity seems slightly suspicious. Umm......We'll go with Xino for now, but I'll probably switch later if things change up. Probably slight mirror structure here. Still believe that Bookwyrm plays a straight distancing game and puts teammate in E reads. Believe I'm not who Wiz wants to kill, and Xino is out of my set. So that being said, I'm comfortable with where my vote is at the moment. Edited to add: Tbh, I can hear Archer saying something right now Edited November 11, 2022 by Kasimir Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kasimir Posted November 12, 2022 Report Share Posted November 12, 2022 (edited) I've slept on it. Not sure about Turtle. I feel like there's a key assumption missing here. And you gained very much trust from that gambit, didn't you, Xino? Honestly I'm both impressed and disturbed by your accuracy. Almost... Unnatural. Edited to add: @Turtle, you just gonna eat the filter here? Turtle Making my Turtle unvote more obvious. Edited November 12, 2022 by Kasimir Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Turtle Posted November 12, 2022 Report Share Posted November 12, 2022 (edited) current vibes when it comes to the thread are that it’s really quiet and that scares me i need to vote but everyone either seems clear or is my pm buddy who i policy tr edit: what if i just risk the rng again Edited November 12, 2022 by Turtle Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kasimir Posted November 12, 2022 Report Share Posted November 12, 2022 8 minutes ago, Turtle said: current vibes when it comes to the thread are that it’s really quiet and that scares me @xinoehp512 Maybe you shouldn't have killed Ash then! >> Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
xinoehp512 Posted November 12, 2022 Report Share Posted November 12, 2022 4 hours ago, Kasimir said: Honestly I'm both impressed and disturbed by your accuracy. Almost... Unnatural. TBH this is not the first time something like this has happened. MR40 I had an action scan and hit the elim kill three nights in a row. I died shortly thereafter. It was both more and less stressful than this game: more so because I was dead and there was nothing I could do; and less so because I was dead and there was nothing I could do. I think I'm going to vote Wizard. Striking as I read C3 was Wiz's hesitance to vote Bookwyrm. He offers Book up as an exe, but then immediately pivots to JNV when someone joins him on the train. He then waits until he's the last person (sans Turtle and Books) on the train before finally switching- but, while doing so, ties his suspicion strongly to JNV, ostensibly to push for a MX next cycle. I think I'm going to go to sleep now :P. Good night. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mat Posted November 12, 2022 Author Report Share Posted November 12, 2022 Hello everyone! I have conveniently just remembered that I will not be available for rollover tomorrow morning, but Devo hopefully will be around to close the thread. If not, it ends at 10am PST just like normal. Rollover will come 2-3 hours late, and if needed I'll change the rest of the game's rollover time to the same which works out better with my Sunday schedule anyway. Sorry, and thanks! 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kasimir Posted November 12, 2022 Report Share Posted November 12, 2022 (edited) 6 hours ago, xinoehp512 said: TBH this is not the first time something like this has happened. MR40 I had an action scan and hit the elim kill three nights in a row. I died shortly thereafter. It was both more and less stressful than this game: more so because I was dead and there was nothing I could do; and less so because I was dead and there was nothing I could do. Araris told me about the legend of MR40, yeah. Something like you wiped his team that game? Still, I misquote Archer: "No one has that kind of accuracy when the frog of war is about." Xino. Edited to add: 5 hours ago, Matrim's Dice said: Hello everyone! I have conveniently just remembered that I will not be available for rollover tomorrow morning, but Devo hopefully will be around to close the thread. If not, it ends at 10am PST just like normal. Rollover will come 2-3 hours late, and if needed I'll change the rest of the game's rollover time to the same which works out better with my Sunday schedule anyway. Sorry, and thanks! Spoiler Edited November 12, 2022 by Kasimir 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Wandering Wizard Posted November 12, 2022 Report Share Posted November 12, 2022 I have come to a conclusion on a mass re-read. Turtle Mostly be reevaluating the VC's at the end of each day (Future Wizard: Yeah, but you decided to add who died as well. And you started it too late last night, but now it's done. Just hope it makes sense.) C1 EoD VC Quote Archer (3): xinoehp512, The Bookwyrm, Turtle The Unknown Order (6): JNV, Shining Silhouette, Archer, Kasimir, Ashbringer, The Wandering Wizard The Wandering Wizard (1): The Unknown Novel There are two option's here. Option 1: E!Xino On 11/7/2022 at 1:49 PM, xinoehp512 said: What if I disrespec Archer for you Archer(2): Kas, Xino Turtle(1): Ash Wiz(1): Turtle Shining(1): Wiz Kas(1): TUN Onyx stepped cautiously into the woods, glancing around at the eyes that surrounded the party. He shivered slightly, but did not turn back. Xino votes onto archer about 0300 hours after the cycle begins. Using the typical format which was pointed out to him last game as being his usual village format, could be that or he could have shifted his elim style. No points either way. On 11/8/2022 at 7:13 AM, The Bookwyrm said: I shall speake in the olden speake as welle. My prior vote hast been rendered invalid by actions as of late. And the subtle convincings of Kas have taught me the folly of my ways. He hath convinced me to change my prior vote. Wiz Archer Bookwyrm follows him about 0700 hours after the cycle begins. Using the standard following your teammate by voting later than them. A little bit of evil to xino there. Option 2: E!Turtle Bookwyrm votes onto Archer at about 0700 hours after the cycle starts On 11/8/2022 at 11:51 AM, Turtle said: ugh i don’t like this but i’m fine w voting arecher and i don’t really want to die again? change my mind ig edit: also there’s a chance i’m not around right after rollover, sry edit 2: turtle is here! Turtle votes onto Archer a few minutes before rollover to avoid passive death. I'm not certain what to give this, but I will give it a small amount of evil. Those who died C1 May you shelter in the palm of the Creator's hand, and may the last embrace of the mother welcome you home. Quote The Unknown Novel was executed! He was a Crewmember! xinoehp512 was attacked, but survived! Archer was killed! He was a Crewmember! TUN is obviously the lynch train. Xino self protected. Could be a WGG or it could be a lucky protect. I'll give it nothing for now Archer was killed by Ash, which is now proven in his death. C2 EoD VC Quote The Bookwyrm (1): Ashbringer JNV (3): Kasimir, The Wandering Wizard, Shining Silhouette Shining Silhouette (4): JNV, The Bookwyrm, Turtle, xinoehp512 Two options once again for a impure train with both turtle and xino on it, and their speculated evil teammate as well. Option one: E!Xino At 0400 hours after the cycle begins, Bookwyrm retaliate votes Silhouette. Bookwyrm unvotes Silhouette at 0700 hours after the cycle started, giving himself a out in that his suspiciouns haven't been assuaged. Revote Silhouette at 0300 hours before rollover. Xino breaks the tie at 15 minutes before EoD. Seems rather evil, you have earned a moderate amount of evil points. Turtle once again votes to avoid no voting filter. Votes Silhouette at 1 hour and 15 minutes before rollover. Seems like it could be to get a reads list out of Shining before his death. MMMmm, I'll give you some evil points for that, but far before rollover so, actually give that a null/evil point. Those who died C2 May you shelter in the palm of the Creator's hand, and may the last embrace of the mother welcome you home. Quote Shining Silhouette was executed! He was a Crewmember with Fenweed Sap! Kasimir was attacked, but survived! Shining was the lynch Kasimir was protected. Interesting to note that the kill didn't go after Xino again when he would be unprotected. Starts to make me think a WGG world. C3 EoD VC Quote The Bookwyrm (5): Ashbringer, xinoehp512, JNV, Kasimir, The Wandering Wizard JNV (1): The Bookwyrm No Vote: Turtle First of all we have Bookwyrm's first vote On 11/9/2022 at 2:41 PM, The Bookwyrm said: The Wandering Wizard - Null, maybe a slight village lean. Nothing about him has stood out to me this game, but I don't know whether that's because he isn't suspicious, or if he's trying to keep to himself. Kas - Villager. I haven't played much with Kas, but...there's something about his constant analyses that seem genuine. They're helpful. Turtle - Slight Elim lean. This one is primarily based on their voting, which seems to be tied with Xino. Granted, I voted the same way as both these people for the last two cycles, so...maybe it's not the best evidence, after all...? A Turtle-Xino team would make sense to me. Turtle has been posting enough to not seem suspicious in the same way as Xino and JNV, though. (note: He makes the Turtle-Xino team, probably sused on of his teammates here0 Xino - Slight Elim lean, for reason listed above, and also for the fact that we haven't seen them post much. I could be misreading, but....I think Xino is a safe bet. (Note: He starts on Xino calling it a safe bet, the problem is distancing or preparing a ML? Ashbringer - Similar to Wizard; nothing stands out about their posts, so null with a slight village lean. JNV - Very slight elim lean. Primarily because they haven't been posting a lot, or because I haven't been paying attention. But their inactivity seems slightly suspicious. (Seems to me to put JNV as his teammate since he doesn't put him too low, but still sus JNV) Umm......We'll go with Xino for now, but I'll probably switch later if things change up. (Distancing or ML setup?) On 11/9/2022 at 3:13 PM, xinoehp512 said: A very happy camper indeed Honestly, it seems like the simplest world is a <JNV, Bookwyrm> team. I think I'll go Bookwyrm for now. Bookwyrm (2): Ash, Xino JNV (2): Kas, Wizard Xino (1): Bookwyrm Here Xino votes Bookwyrm and claims being the happy camper, no counter claim. And he goes and votes books, tying it. Puts his teammate in hot water, couldn't know Kas was going to lead a Bookwyrm lynch later. Seemingly points to possible Bus happy Xino. Give you a moderate amount of evil credit here. Bookwrym goes after JNV saying it's better for his situation, setting up the JNV ML, sorry about that JNV. He removes his vote from Xino and everyone seems to forget about it. I'd give that evil cred for the fact that it switched from distancing to ML. Turtle doesn't even vote this round, which looks bad, but I know the reasons for it. So you get a unsatisfied null. Those who died C3 Quote The Bookwyrm was executed! He was a Shade with Silver Dust! Bookwyrm was the ML. Violation hits me or JNV canceling the violation kill. Now here is where the possibilities get interesting. I will tryi to stay on course and not explore too many but lets start. Option one: Boookwyrm-Xino team Bookwrym puts in the kill and Xino chooses to still protect. This world seems less likely since they probably would have known that the lynch comes before the kill. The other Bookwyrm-Xino option is that they didn't even put in the kill and Xino just self protected again. Option two: Turtle-Bookwrym team Turtle doesn't put in the kill and still roleblocks JNV. This world is possible, but I don't think that E!Turtle would continue to go along with Kas's plan, instead just saving the RB for later. Can't tell either way C4 EoD VC Quote JNV (5): Ashbringer, The Wandering Wizard, Kasimir, Turtle, xinoehp512 Turtle (1): JNV Two options of E!Turtle and E!Xino once again. JNV train was most definitely not pure. Turtle seems to have forgotten to vote last round, not certain what to give it. Jumps on the JNV train after me, Ash, and Kas. The three village musketeers. Seems to just follow the mood of the thread. A few evil credit here. Xino jumps right into the train and asks why the elims haven't used their fenweed sap. Seems to point away from E!Turtle. I'd give this one a null/evil point. Those who died C4 May you shelter in the palm of the Creator's hand, and may the last embrace of the mother welcome you home. Quote JNV was executed! They were a Crewmember with Silver Dust! Ashbringer was killed! He was a Crewmember who once held a Silver Knife! JNV was the lynch Ash was the NK, the tent fails to protect, probably was on Kas or Xino. But this makes me think that a WGG world is very likely. Since bookwyrm is gone Xino is the lone man on his team and has to submit a kill each night, but it's an action that conflicts with the tent protect. And I agree with Kas on this point, no way someones that accurate with a protect and no way the elim team doesn't kill Xino C2 and then is guaranteed to have no protect messing with their kill. Xino Spoiler Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Turtle Posted November 12, 2022 Report Share Posted November 12, 2022 40 minutes ago, The Wandering Wizard said: Turtle seems to have forgotten to vote last round, not certain what to give it. Jumps on the JNV train after me, Ash, and Kas. The three village musketeers. Seems to just follow the mood of the thread. A few evil credit here. i mean not really, i only got onto the thread 7 minutes before that and i was gonna vote jnv, i just said some stuff before that Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Wandering Wizard Posted November 12, 2022 Report Share Posted November 12, 2022 Just now, Turtle said: i mean not really, i only got onto the thread 7 minutes before that and i was gonna vote jnv, i just said some stuff before that It's mostly the fact that you followed the train, which could have just been when you got on and the train had already formed. It seems evil if you are which was the possibility I was exploring at the time. If you're village then it just seems null. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Turtle Posted November 12, 2022 Report Share Posted November 12, 2022 thread is quiet and it scares me tbh i don’t super see the xino thing like genuinely what would e!xino gain from both a wgg and protecting the next kill my paranoia is saying it could happen but like Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kasimir Posted November 12, 2022 Report Share Posted November 12, 2022 The Premise We are at lylo. If we miss this shot, our last hope is if V!Xino successfully stops the Elim kill. I have faith in V!Xino, but I prefer us not to even get to that precipice. So we play this as if this is lylo. I PMed Xino sometime after the cycle began, when I'd finished marinating in my oath of vengeance to JNV. First, let's establish some basic facts. There is only a single Elim left. If there were two Elims, we would have lost the game already. This means that we can either identify the most suspicious among us, or we can try to clear the players we can, and then the last player must be the Elim. Second, as I mentioned in a PM in this game, there's something Araris told me in a PM in AG8 that I found to be pretty sensible. Which is that sometimes, Elims slip past us by doing something unexpected. This means that we are at the point where we need to figure out what that 'something unexpected' is, by revising our key assumptions. A. The Set-Up Spoiler We didn't have an especially well-discussed C3 and C4. Partially for C3, and not really for C4. Part of this is on me. But cycles where a consensus player is lynched tend to be pretty informationally poor for the Village, which gives us thinner gruel to go on at lylo. There's something Araris said in LG68 that I agree with more these days: "Lynches tend to provide less information when based on less disputable (or at least, disputed) arguments." We see this in the unanimity trains on JNV and Bookwyrm (to a lesser extent.) There was consensus, so the Elim blends in without feeling significant pressure. Let's take a step back and think about what our Elim's strategic objectives are. Primarily, they want to secure a ML. Any ML will do. Part of this play involves killing last cycle in such a way as to select for the final four they most want in this cycle, i.e. the ones they believe they can most exploit to achieve a favourable outcome. This is, to be sure, a little muddled up because Xino (in a V!Xino world) will be blocking kills, so they may have to settle for targets less likely to be protected. Secondarily, in a V!Xino world, they want to remove Xino. Think about it this way: Xino has already blocked two Elim kills. Our Elim is probably channelling the PTSD Chihuahua meme at the thought of having to go 2/1 into another cycle. Even worse, they have to curate a final two who can be persuaded to suspect and turn on each other rather than on the surviving Elim! What this means: I believe that, if presented with what seems to be a plausible Xino lynch, i.e. one that could in fact take off, the Elim will bite and go onto that train. This both secures a ML and allows the Elim to avoid fears of an extra cycle that looks more grim for them. I PMed Xino some time after rollover, asking him if he was fine with my staking him out as bait. We figured that as one of the louder Village voices, my turning on Xino and voting him would present an opportunity. We would then try to read the reactions from Turtle and Wiz, to try to see if this told us a bit more about how the two of them were approaching this game. B. Stepping Back: What's Our PoE? Spoiler As I've mentioned, one of the basic facts we can agree on is that there simply must be exactly one Elim. No more, no less. The Elims win at parity; therefore, if there were two, the Village must have already lost. So one out of <Kas, Xino, Wiz, Turtle> must be Evil. But only one. For very obvious reasons, I would never be in my own PoE. But I think the simplest argument I would make for my being Village - above and beyond the ones I've been making in response to Ash, is the fact that if I were Evil, I'd pretty much have to be Evil with Xino. I was protected from a NK on N2. If I were Evil and Xino weren't, I'd be shooting myself blindly in the hopes Xino protected me. Sure, it's unsurprising Xino did. But what if he went for Ash? It's a big risk for the Elims, given the team size and the fact I'd be leaving Bookwyrm to solo. Since we know this is a one Elim world, and my being Evil requiring Xino to be Evil entails a three Elim team, I can't be Evil. But let's walk this one layer further. Suppose, then, that I am a secret Lurcher. (It'd have to be me, since Book flipped with Silver Dust.) What is the result? I'd have to have Lurched myself C2 for a WGG (why C2, why not C1?) when I already knew Xino was a Lurcher, and could counterclaim by saying, "Well, I never Lurched Kas." Uh-oh. There is no way there are two Village Lurchers in a game of this size. Running a WGG with a Lurcher other than Xino is a path to swift lynching after Xino gets most likely rolelynched. Moreover, a two Elim team having a Tent makes the Knife functionally useless except to kill Villagers. Distro already suggests this is not a good idea at all. So let's go with <Xino, Wiz, Turtle.> ...So, interesting backstory here. I've had two supervisors in graduate studies. One half of my lineage ties me to Alan Hájek of Fifteen Arguments Against Finite Frequentism. I've cracked jokes about it from time to time. This isn't fifteen arguments, but it's a bunch of them (well, seven), I'm a traditionalist The aim is to show that it is eminently reasonable to consider V!Xino, which is after all the point of this set-up to begin with. It also helps if we can functionally narrow the pool to <Wiz, Turtle.> 1. E!Xino doesn't kill Ash. The more reasonable kill for E!Xino is in <Wiz, Turtle>. There's a fun quote from Orlok back from QF59, where I was Evil and we were talking about how to play the Village in our Final Five. Quote Understood. Knowing Archer better than I, do you think that’s likely, when presented with support for his plan, which he thinks will win him the game? Generally, I think feeding into those sort of feelings reduces willingness to rethink. Here's the thing. Look at how willing everyone was to consider alternatives other than JNV last cycle. Sure, there's the risk that flipping one Elim might spark a rethink. But given so many players already stating they would go onto Turtle after JNV (Ash, myself), why does E!Xino kill Ash? Easier to flip V!Wiz. Then everyone frowns and ponders the kill a little, but without substantive new information, and the thought that Xino must be Village for past reasons, the natural kill is Turtle. Village inertia exists and can often be exploited ruthlessly. 2. What is the point of a second WGG? Functionally, few Elim teams go for a second WGG. They lose a kill, lose tempo in the process, and don't substantively get more trust from doing it a second time. You can call it a classic case of 'diminishing returns.' The fact that some players were still lukewarm or mildly positive on Xino C3 is a case in point. Better to do the one WGG, and then just ride that trust, possibly gain a bit more by bussing. There's only one Elim team I know of that did two WGGs in a row and the circumstances were different. This was the Minas Tirith QF, when Orlok was at his peak and terrifying the SErengeti. The fear and paranoia he faced was so high even WGGs didn't reassure players about him, much less explained why he was alive. (It got that way for Aman too.) Two WGGs were needed to make it plausible that the Elims would stop trying to kill Orlok. A single WGG is already really unpopular in SE meta due to the trade-offs. Going for a second one is even worse. Xino was already in nulls or positives from players as a result of C1. Because he wasn't in danger, there was no point in doing a second WGG. There's just nothing really gained in the process, and Elims generally do things they believe they can gain from. One WGG already puts them behind on kills. A second one puts them even further in debt, even with Violation. (Violation requires an Elim death, so is suboptimal to plan for, especially on a two Elim team.) 3. Xino kicked off the Bookwyrm train! I disagree with Wiz's analysis. Let's look at the state of the votes when Xino voted Bookwyrm: Quote Bookwyrm (2): Ash, Xino JNV (2): Kas, Wiz Xino (1): Bookwyrm Xino voted after Wiz and after Bookwyrm. Xino brought the Bookwyrm train to life, and made it a serious contender. Until that point, I'd mentioned willingness to vote for Bookwyrm but was aggressively backing the JNV train. Wiz voted for Bookwyrm for a very short while and hopped off. JNV then kicked the train into high gear by also voting Bookwyrm, so the trains were 3-2. E!Xino doesn't deliberately bring the Bookwyrm train into contention. With the thread mood the way it was, it was clear I would go for a JNV train and that was my preference. From what Wiz was saying, he backed that too. There's distancing and there's voting on your teammate in such a way as to draw unnecessary attention to them and potentially kill them. The correct move for E!Xino is to back me on JNV. This protects Bookwyrm. The Bookwyrm lynch was not inevitable. And imagine what happens in a world where JNV flips instead of Bookwyrm: where would we be? Xino's actions don't make sense if he is Bookwyrm's teammate. 4. The Elims were indifferent to Silho-JNV. Xino wasn't. Xino's breaking the Silho-JNV tie is more Village indicative. We now know this was a Village/Village train, which means there was less Evil investment on this train. It's not to say that no Evil players would've voted on either train, but rather: why does E!Xino attract attention by voting Silho and breaking the tie? Late tie-breaks always attract attention, especially when E!Xino knows Silho will flip Village. He has no reason to know Silho has Fenweed Sap - Silho opened a PM with me C2, and even I didn't know it. To E!Xino, moving attracts attention. He has no reason to care which of Silho or JNV flips - the attention on JNV only really began stacking significantly by C3, and whichever of the two survived was bound to attract more attention and defenders, which means ML potential. Consider if JNV flipped. Do we all really think people would clear Silho the next cycle after how many players had him in PoE? Maybe. But I'm not optimistic. 5. A protect makes more sense for the Village. In a ruleset this volatile, when so many factors can lead to Village death, including the knife, and chances of the knife backfiring, it makes more sense for the Village to have a Lurcher, especially given the small player group size. 6. In a normal game, two successful protects is major Village credit. This should be a sanity check. In any normal game, two successful protects is major Village credit. In any normal game, we take this as a softclear. I think it says a great deal about the corrupted epistemic environment of this game that it's not. Let me further point out that we can't even say as much for the other three players alive! A significant part of us clearing Dannex in AG8 was down to his successful Lurches of the Spiked kill. (There are other factors, I don't want to go into them here since they don't apply in this game.) Of all players, I would be remiss not to point out that Gamma started the Village Lurcher legend all the way back in LG3 where he successfully made four saves via Lurching, to the point the Spiked were theorising a second Village Lurcher. We don't do SE cults anymore, but I am the Last Son of House Urbain, and it is my duty to point out there is an Ironborn who has found a worthy successor in Danex and in Xino 7. Casual SE opening runs against how E!Xino played in LG89 and matches his LG90 play I don't consider this the most convincing of arguments, but Xino is playing in a more relaxed and casual way than he did in his Elim game. I add it because it is something on my mind, but I think the weight of the past six arguments should really carry this case over the line. In general, I think the case for V!Xino is extremely strong, as I've laid out. This means our PoE is functionally in <Wiz, Turtle.> This means the Villager in <Wiz, Turtle> should automatically recognise from their own GM PM who our remaining Elim is. C. Experiment Results Spoiler Let's briefly recap. The point of this was to offer extremely tantalising bait to an Elim whose team had, quite frankly, been foiled one too many times by Xino. While all the Elim really needs is an ML, my throwing down with a Xino train offers them an extremely attractive promise: both a ML and the ability to not have to fear an additional cycle where the vote could go against them. As I've mentioned securing a ML today that is consistent with a good Final Three for an additional cycle is no small matter. The Elim would undoubtedly prefer to avoid it altogether. Between Wiz and Turtle, I expected the Elim to perform some amount of reluctance. But I expected the Elim to bite on the Xino train, in the end. Here are the responses I got: A. Turtle: Expressed a reluctance to vote, and indicated they'd want to re-read Wiz. They also mentioned that they sort of could see E!Xino but felt that Xino's Lurching was reasonable from a V!Xino standpoint as well. B. Wiz: Expressed the need to relook the cycle, and after re-reading and reluctance, doubled down on V!Turtle and E!Xino. Wiz's arguments are in the thread here - I'll just point out I received a couple more in PMs, some of which were pretty fallacious. On the first level, I think that Wiz's eagerness to go for Xino is striking compared to Turtle's reluctance. On the second level, I also think that Wiz's eagerness to go for Xino shows in his argumentation, which I'll engage with in an Annex, as it demonstrates motivated reasoning. One of Wiz's lines of argument was that E!Turtle would have roleblocked V!Xino, and V!Xino would've reported this, so the lack of a report from Xino means V!Turtle, and therefore E!Xino, likely through assuming V!Wiz. Side-note: he's actually sussing Xino for bringing up the very same line of argument about E!Turtle as he does, just more generic ("We should've seen fenweed sap in use by now.") so there's that. I'll point out the more egregious slips later on in the Annex. On the third level, I expect a Villager to offer me some pushback when re-reading, or to even question if I was Village, for that 'Elim dgaf energy' in my post sussing Xino for being 'too accurate', particularly when I'd previously pointed out that Xino's Lurching choices made sense. The fact that Wiz re-emerged with an elaborate argument on E!Xino doesn't really inspire confidence. D. TJ's Principle Spoiler A good way of revising our assumptions is to go back to TJ's Principle. I call it TJ's Principle, but it was really first formally articulated by deTess in MR42, and it is as follows: Quote There's really only one thing that really struck me as a bit of a mistake. Everything else comes down to differences in playstyle. I already mentioned it in the LG90 dead doc, but if you're in the end-game and going through everyone, anyone that looks Neutral-ish to you (like you mentioned about mist) should immediately be put in the 'potential elim' stack and never in the 'village' stack, irrespective of how much analysis they do. Basically, the best elims can look very village, right up until you're near the end of the game, look at what they've done and realize that they haven't really done all that much (maybe even nothing) to actually catch an elim. Well, let's spell this out in this game, by asking: who has done something to help the Village, in concrete terms? Let's ignore if we think the players are truthful, for now. Let's look at what concrete actions have been taken. Quote 1. Xino blocked two Elim kills. 2. Kas saved V!Archer. (Not my problem Ash was itchy and stabby.) Also got NKed C2. We've established this doesn't work out unless both Xino and I are Evil, which is impossible. 3. Turtle RBed JNV, a Village suspect, forcing NKs to stop for a cycle. 4. Wiz -? Uh-oh. (I don't count the Silver Dust, as it's a passive and not something Wiz has active control over.) Xino concretely promoted the Bookwyrm train. Turtle promoted discussion and (admittedly secondary to Ash), expressed willingness to go for Bookwyrm. In combination, everyone except Wiz has a collection of pro-Village actions they've taken. At lylo, we can't afford to overlook that any longer. But let's go into the events of the cycles a little more: 1. C1 voting favours V!Turtle As I've mentioned, it looks more Village that Turtle was confused at EoD rather than struggling to stay alive in a chaotic C1 EoD where they'd been mooted as a CW a few times, and Silho, Archer, and I were hopping on and off them. Bookwyrm not showing up indicates that no teammate of theirs was seriously under threat, which is a point against E!Turtle. E!Turtle could've very easily gone TUN for self-pres without condemnation. But they didn't, and in fact, disliked the TUN CW, even though it was saving their life. I submit this attitude is more consistent with a Villager, than an Elim who was facing the prospect of dying early and leaving Book to solo Elim in his second game. So I notice one point Wiz makes about E!Xino is that Elims like to clump together. Which, funny enough, by his logic, also condemns him Because Bookwyrm shortly after follows Wiz onto an Archer train. I think this is one place it's hard to make a definite judgement call: Bookwyrm could've felt more psychologically secure following a teammate C1, or they could've just decided they really, really wanted the free Archer ML. In contrast, Wiz swung onto the TUN train. This isn't in the same class as Xino breaking the Silho/JNV tie because whyever not? The Archer train wasn't going to be viable anyway, and the risks aren't identical: Wiz attracts a lot less condemnation for being part of a huge swing as compared to what E!Xino can attract by being a solitary last-minute tiebreaker. And who is going to condemn Wiz for it? Everyone else who also consented to a TUN CW? This isn't to say that this indicates E!Wiz decisively. What this does show is that if we revise some assumptions about modelling the Elim team in this game, we find that the voting still shows Turtle's behaviour as being functionally more robustly Village than Wiz's. How players behave in the face of impending death or the threat of suspicion can be extremely revealing. 2. Fenweed Sap just makes more sense for V!Turtle. Wiz claimed Silver Dust C2, while Turtle claimed Fenweed Sap at EoD, about a minute to rollover. On the first level, the fact that Turtle claimed so close to rollover suggests, I think, that they haven't really had the time to work it out. Claiming a roleblock is a bad move for an Elim - E!Turtle gains trust but has to recognise that they will be asked to roleblock subsequently, preventing them from using the Sap in a way that benefits their team. There are no action trackers in this game - E!Turtle could've stayed silent and retained the freedom of the kill. Being forced to roleblock also forces E!them to withhold the kill, wasting even more tempo: tempo that had already been lost to Xino blocking two NKs before that. Sure, Turtle could be lying about having Fenweed Sap. But what was gained from it? Suspicion was directed at Bookwyrm and JNV, and players were already sussing JNV, so it wasn't as though Turtle was under immediate threat of death. Turtle also preferred to roleblock JNV, when the obvious play for an Elim claiming a roleblock would be to offer to roleblock Bookwyrm, saving their partner from death and just making the NK to 'softclear' them. Sure, Turtle could be downplaying the charges. But to what end? The moment any player reports a roleblock, suspicion will automatically accrue to Turtle. This isn't really a winning move for E!Turtle. Keeping operational freedom by not declaring the Sap, and roleblocking and killing Xino is so much better as an option for them. Wiz claimed Silver Dust, which prima facie looks strange on a team that already has Silver Dust, e.g. Bookwyrm. But I've pointed out that Silver Dust is an easy claim to make: it's sort of like Thug but better because by the time anyone figures out you don't have it, you're too dead to care. Shades also are half as likely to get hit by Violation, meaning that Wiz could bus without too much fear anyway. Unlike Turtle, Wiz has more motivation to lie about Silver Dust - this is because players are unlikely to think that the Shade team consists in two players with Silver Dust each. (It's not impossible, but from an Elim's perspective, you're interested in exploiting player psychology here.) This doesn't definitively say Wiz is lying. But this indicates that we have stronger reason to believe Turtle was truthful. And if Turtle was truthful, on the first level, the very fact of the claim and circumstances of it points to V!Turtle. Moreover, on the second level, the fact Turtle forced a withholding of the NK for a Night is pro-Village. That's another place where Turtle comes out looking better than Wiz. 3. There was no reason for E!Turtle to refuse to vote C3. Not voting puts a player at a 40% chance of death. There was no reason for E!Turtle to refuse to vote C3. You could argue E!Turtle disliked bussing, but there's not wanting to bus your teammate, and there's courting death and a team loss as a result of doing so. The fact that we're at C5 lylo indicates the surviving Elim is playing to win if they can. That's not consistent with risking death at just shy of a coinflip. Moreover, E!Turtle could've very easily just voted on Book to blend in with everyone else at no cost at all. Or voted on JNV, if they'd stuck to the holdout train plan. Being indifferent to death and sticking out makes more sense for V!Turtle than E!Turtle, due to the stakes. 4. Turtle showed more positive thread engagement. It's the little things that Turtle does to promote discussion that stick out to me, like asking Silho for a quick and dirty reads list before he was due to be lynched. Or engaging me on doing a NKA of JNV despite JNV leading the lynch C4. It ain't much, but I'm stacking this with the other points, because this shows a fundamental interest in discussion that seems to come from a Village mindset. Elims, especially those who are seeing a ML incoming, are more interested in shutting down discussion, or at least impatient with Villager blathering/handwringing. They want you to get on with it without any dangerous reconsidering, or even worse, their having to incur suspicion just to get you back on track. 5. C3 voting favours Turtle more than Wiz This is where Xino's point about Wiz pivoting to JNV quickly when sensing support for that train come in as opposed to Bookwyrm. Turtle was powerfully indifferent. I've noted as well last cycle that Wiz actually looks Evil if you look at C3. 6. Turtle's engagement with the thread has been very pure. I don't take this to be a decisive point against Wiz and for V!Turtle. But I do want to bring this up. Turtle has a very off-the-cuff playstyle where they just throw their thoughts and feelings into the thread. This is very dangerous play for an Elim, and hard to stay consistent with. This is probably why LG89 E!Turtle was a bit more restrained in playing - it's easy to Elim slip if you have no filter. I'm not getting that off Turtle here, and V!Turtle entails E!Wiz. This means I revise my assumptions - Wiz's greater engagement with the game is still consistent with E!Wiz, potentially due to enjoying being Evil. 7. Why am I alive? A kill within <Kas, Ash, Xino> is perfectly consistent with an Elim in <Wiz, Turtle.> This is because they will worry that flipping the other will cause the three of us to turn on them due to reads priority. But here's the thing. Elims often do, as I said, make certain deliberate choices to try to get the most advantageous Final Four they can. It's possible that the Elim wanted to guarantee a kill more than they wanted to strike at Xino. But here's a very telling point that Village Archer ignored in QF59: Quote I'm who e!Kas would keep alive. Hmmm. Overlooking that was a mistake. I am powerfully haunted by the thought that the fact I'm still alive indicates a certain level of Elim comfort with my pushing Turtle - that they want me to go for Turtle and ML Turtle. Which means I am better off not doing as they want me to! I'm who E!Wiz would keep alive. Hmmm. In summation, I think there are more and better reasons to endorse V!Turtle than V!Wiz. I do think that Wiz's behaviour is consistent with his being Evil. So this isn't a smoking gun. But the strength of PoE, and separate arguments for E!Wiz, and his response to the bait makes me go with E!Wiz over E!Turtle. In summation: Wiz. Annex: Spoiler 2 hours ago, The Wandering Wizard said: I have come to a conclusion on a mass re-read. Turtle Mostly be reevaluating the VC's at the end of each day (Future Wizard: Yeah, but you decided to add who died as well. And you started it too late last night, but now it's done. Just hope it makes sense.) C1 EoD VC There are two option's here. Option 1: E!Xino Xino votes onto archer about 0300 hours after the cycle begins. Using the typical format which was pointed out to him last game as being his usual village format, could be that or he could have shifted his elim style. No points either way. Bookwyrm follows him about 0700 hours after the cycle begins. Using the standard following your teammate by voting later than them. A little bit of evil to xino there. [This deliberately ignores that Bookwyrm immediately follows Wiz's own vote! I appreciate that E!Wiz is a non-starter for Wiz, but if you're sussing a player without acknowledging that the same logic applies to you yourself and trying to account for that, something is wrong.] Option 2: E!Turtle Bookwyrm votes onto Archer at about 0700 hours after the cycle starts Turtle votes onto Archer a few minutes before rollover to avoid passive death. I'm not certain what to give this, but I will give it a small amount of evil. [This is kinda odd. Why give it Evil if you don't know what to give it? Self-pres is often NAI, as players like Mat and TUN don't like dying no matter their alignment - it's the lack of self-pres that looks good in some circumstances, and this ignores that Turtle later resists self-pres by refusing the TUN swap despite three loud players suggesting a CW onto Turtle! Part of me wonders if this is paving the way for a Turtle ML just in case.] Those who died C1 May you shelter in the palm of the Creator's hand, and may the last embrace of the mother welcome you home. TUN is obviously the lynch train. Xino self protected. Could be a WGG or it could be a lucky protect. I'll give it nothing for now [If you give it nothing, it's no wonder why you think Xino is Evil... So, there are two schools of thought on this. If you think about probability in epistemic terms, then you divide the probability you assign to an outcome by the number of possible outcomes there are. The problem is, I don't really think that's a good way of assigning belief in this case - largely because of the circumstances, and because the base rate of WGG prevalence in SE is extremely low. This feels a bit like a skew towards an E!Xino conclusion by stripping Xino of a move that had earned him Village credit from players in C2. I'm happy to talk about what the circumstances are: Xino wasn't really under threat, he was actually in an under-the-radar sweet spot, so had no real need to gain Village cred, and wasn't really leveraging on it after that anyway. WGGs are normally used subsequently for players who go on to achieve thread control, or pre-emptively for players who get fear-killed a lot because they address the "why are you still alive" question. The question is a sensitive one, FYI. Lots of SE history around it, I'll talk about it some other time when I'm not trying to crunch out a longpost. Archer was killed by Ash, which is now proven in his death. C2 EoD VC Two options once again for a impure train with both turtle and xino on it, and their speculated evil teammate as well. Option one: E!Xino At 0400 hours after the cycle begins, Bookwyrm retaliate votes Silhouette. Bookwyrm unvotes Silhouette at 0700 hours after the cycle started, giving himself a out in that his suspiciouns haven't been assuaged. Revote Silhouette at 0300 hours before rollover. Xino breaks the tie at 15 minutes before EoD. Seems rather evil, you have earned a moderate amount of evil points. [This one might be a matter of interpretation rather than motivated reasoning. But I disagree with this - there's no incentive for E!Xino to break the tie. As long as the Village is caught in a Silho/JNV debate and focusing on the survivor for the next cycle or so, that's good enough. Since Silho PMed me C2, it is very unlikely E!Xino knew Silho's role. So E!Xino doesn't really care either way, and risks attracting a lot of suspicion for...basically no strategic gain. Elims don't just do whatever. There's always a risk analysis involved. Ties kill so whether or not Xino broke the tie, there would've been a ML.] Turtle once again votes to avoid no voting filter. Votes Silhouette at 1 hour and 15 minutes before rollover. Seems like it could be to get a reads list out of Shining before his death. MMMmm, I'll give you some evil points for that, but far before rollover so, actually give that a null/evil point. [I don't really see how you can miss that getting even that reads list is a pro-Village move. Elims often don't care. Trying to eke out every last bit you can from a dying player - like right, I wouldn't V!read Turtle off the back of this, but it's a good look that a player can keep consistent down to the small details.] Those who died C2 May you shelter in the palm of the Creator's hand, and may the last embrace of the mother welcome you home. Shining was the lynch Kasimir was protected. Interesting to note that the kill didn't go after Xino again when he would be unprotected. Starts to make me think a WGG world. [Ignores the fact there are good reasons to avoid a second WGG. Feels like motivated reasoning - if there are other factors I can think of, why do you immediately assume not just one WGG but two WGGs? Also believe that it's harder to draw this conclusion when WGG meta was discussed in thread - encourages Elims to metascrew, and is therefore 'tainted.' Better to look in terms of gain, risk, and strategic objectives.] C3 EoD VC First of all we have Bookwyrm's first vote Here Xino votes Bookwyrm and claims being the happy camper, no counter claim. And he goes and votes books, tying it. Puts his teammate in hot water, couldn't know Kas was going to lead a Bookwyrm lynch later. Seemingly points to possible Bus happy Xino. Give you a moderate amount of evil credit here. [Extremely motivated reasoning. Putting his teammate in hot water unnecessarily is counterintuitive for an Elim. This feels like a very Evil read from Wiz - small Elim teams don't bus unless they have to. There are exceptions but Xino has never been this kayana about the gambits. With the thread mood the way it was, voting Bookwyrm and bringing the train into contention could easily escalate out of control. The answer isn't to say Xino must be bus happy, it's to ask if that level of bussing even makes sense in the first place.] Bookwrym goes after JNV saying it's better for his situation, setting up the JNV ML, sorry about that JNV. He removes his vote from Xino and everyone seems to forget about it. I'd give that evil cred for the fact that it switched from distancing to ML. [Extremely motivated reasoning again. By saying that Bookwyrm swaps from distancing, this implies that Wiz has already tacitly accepted E!Xino anyway. But the point is to establish whether E!Xino is plausible. If your reasoning is an E!Xino narrative, then it's no wonder Xino looks Evil as all hell. It doesn't quite feel honest as an assessment, and this makes me concerned Wiz is opportunistically trying to ride the free ML.] Turtle doesn't even vote this round, which looks bad, but I know the reasons for it. So you get a unsatisfied null. [Disagree this looks bad. Elim seppuku in this context is pointless, and Turtle didn't particularly gain a significant boost in trust for it, just ??? E!Turtle may as well bus and blend in. Withholding some credit for Turtle for not self-presing here by voting is odd, since you have twice given Turtle Evil points for self-presing!] Those who died C3 Bookwyrm was the ML. Violation hits me or JNV canceling the violation kill. Now here is where the possibilities get interesting. I will tryi to stay on course and not explore too many but lets start. Option one: Boookwyrm-Xino team Bookwrym puts in the kill and Xino chooses to still protect. This world seems less likely since they probably would have known that the lynch comes before the kill. The other Bookwyrm-Xino option is that they didn't even put in the kill and Xino just self protected again. Option two: Turtle-Bookwrym team Turtle doesn't put in the kill and still roleblocks JNV. This world is possible, but I don't think that E!Turtle would continue to go along with Kas's plan, instead just saving the RB for later. Can't tell either way [There's a small world in which E!Turtle does, but I lean towards V!Turtle and have extensively explained why in an earlier section so I don't really care here =P] C4 EoD VC Two options of E!Turtle and E!Xino once again. JNV train was most definitely not pure. Turtle seems to have forgotten to vote last round, not certain what to give it. Jumps on the JNV train after me, Ash, and Kas. The three village musketeers. Seems to just follow the mood of the thread. A few evil credit here. [If you yourself acknowledge that everyone is voting JNV anyway and there was little mood to consider non-Evil JNV worlds beyond my asking people for E!Turtle arguments, why does Turtle accrue more Evil points for doing what everyone else was? Doesn't that also affect you?] Xino jumps right into the train and asks why the elims haven't used their fenweed sap. Seems to point away from E!Turtle. I'd give this one a null/evil point. [Wouldn't E!Xino want to set V!Turtle up as a ML? This is a reasonable question and clears Turtle by implication. You yourself use the fenweed sap reasoning when discussing why E!Turtle is unlikely and yet you sus Xino for it. Feels like motivated reasoning yet again.] Those who died C4 May you shelter in the palm of the Creator's hand, and may the last embrace of the mother welcome you home. JNV was the lynch Ash was the NK, the tent fails to protect, probably was on Kas or Xino. But this makes me think that a WGG world is very likely. Since bookwyrm is gone Xino is the lone man on his team and has to submit a kill each night, but it's an action that conflicts with the tent protect. And I agree with Kas on this point, no way someones that accurate with a protect and no way the elim team doesn't kill Xino C2 and then is guaranteed to have no protect messing with their kill. [I don't know what Wiz is on, and if it weren't lylo, I'd want some of it. Failure to protect is not evidence that no protection occurred. Absence of evidence is not evidence of absence. This is a very basic slip in logic here. We've noted that successful Lurchers are rare (hi LG90 Archer!) but that doesn't therefore imply that failure to Lurch or successful Lurching is Evil one way or another. As I've pointed out earlier, Danex and Gamma are examples of two Village Lurchers who were very successful. So that's not prima facie impossible. The most you can speculate is that failure to protect meant Xino was putting a kill in. But in that world, Xino shouldn't have pushed Bookwyrm C3 because he'd need Bookwyrm to kill. In that world as well, Xino can claim to have been roleblocked, and instead make the kill. But that's already farfetched. This is where the logical double dipping happens. Successful Lurches are simultaneously so rare that Xino's success is suspicious, and so common that Xino's failure to Lurch successfully C4 is suspicious! You can't have it both ways. And again, failure to Lurch doesn't imply the player was putting a kill in. It does mean you can't exclude that possibility since there was no provable action. But there are so many other more convincing reasons to go V!Xino that outweigh this consideration.] Xino Reveal hidden contents My comments are in bold and highlighted. In short, I take this to be an example of several instances of motivated reasoning, including slips of logic. I think the best explanation is that Wiz wanted a Xino lynch. He saw I was willing to give him one. So he went about looking for more ammo for it. That's about it from me. Longpost of longposts, go. Hier stehe ich. Ich kann nicht anders. Gott helfe mir. If I'm wrong, then I hope Xino makes the Lurch successfully so we get one last shot at it next cycle Sorry, dead doc. I did my best. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Wandering Wizard Posted November 12, 2022 Report Share Posted November 12, 2022 2 minutes ago, Turtle said: thread is quiet and it scares me tbh i don’t super see the xino thing like genuinely what would e!xino gain from both a wgg and protecting the next kill my paranoia is saying it could happen but like I don't know. The only other way I could see would be E!Turtle or E!Kas, but E!Kas is very improbable and I need to get homework done. And if I accept E!Kas then there also has to be E!Xino, but there is only one Elim left. So I'm clinging to my Kas read and I'm dithering between E!Turtle or E!Xino and my re-read makes E!Xino more likely than E!Turtle to me. I feel like I'm tunneling though Xino. I don't have time right now. And Kas just ninja'd me 6 minutes ago, Kasimir said: If I'm wrong, then I hope Xino makes the Lurch successfully so we get one last shot at it next cycle Wizard, hope you get your shot. I have to go finish a take home test. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Turtle Posted November 12, 2022 Report Share Posted November 12, 2022 i, i really don’t like to do this wiz at this point that’s my only real option :((( mat is e!vinnie going in the writeup? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Devotary of Spontaneity Posted November 12, 2022 Report Share Posted November 12, 2022 The cycle is over! The aftermath will be up in a few hours. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mat Posted November 12, 2022 Author Report Share Posted November 12, 2022 (edited) Aftermath: Hello There Vinnie felt numb. The speed at which this expedition had gone south was unparalleled by any adventure he'd been on before. Course, he'd never been with psychopaths before, never been under threat of sabotage. It was unheard of. He had half a mind to tell the remaining four to scatter, leave the forest in different directions, never cross paths, but he felt that he still was responsible for their safety. The killer had stabbed Jal when no one was looking, and sending them off might just be what dooms them. So he kept their march going. No longer at their destination, but instead at-- by his navigational judgement-- what was the quickest path out of the forest. He had kept watch at night with two others, not letting himself sleep and not letting himself be alone with anyone. He hadn't let the saboteur have a moment to strike. Part of him wanted to, to know who they were, to bring them to justice, but Vinnie knew that was foolhardy. Better to be safe. It had gotten to the point where he recognized the terrain, and that made Vinnie excited. It meant they were close to the edge of the forest. At long last. He picked up the pace, not moving at anywhere near a run but quicker than the slow plodding they had been going. Then, Jeffrey Jeffrey tripped. The man had been near the back of the pack, with only Old Ben behind him, and had fallen over an upturned root. He picked himself up from the ground, crouching for a second to dust off his pants. He looked up at Vinnie, a wry yet sheepish smile on his face, as if to say nothing to see here, carry on. A knife poked out through his chest, having entered in through the back. Jeffrey Jeffrey's eyes widened. He looked down at the blade helplessly, then slumped to the forest floor. Old Ben wrenched out his knife, a crazed look on his face. He stared right at Vinnie's horrified expression. "Hello there." "You--" Silas began, raising a walking stick he had picked up a few miles back, but was cut off by the angry shade that engulfed him from the side. Vinnie screamed. And ran. He wasn't proud of it. He knew Onyx was still back there, somewhere, but his fear had finally proved to be stronger than his resolve. He ran as long as he dared before slowing his pace to a crawl, and soon exited the Forest of Hell. A place that truly deserved its name. A place that had broken him. * * * Old Ben laughed. Cruelly, coldly. Then he lit the match. Time seemed to slow around Onyx as the Shades turned. Sickly emerald bled to murderous crimson in the blink of an eye. Ready to punish. Ready to kill. For a moment, Onyx stood frozen. No. Not again. Not again. He turned, running, stumbling, desperately trying to escape. But even before he tripped over a root, falling to the ground, he knew it was useless. No one could outrun an angry shade. In one last desperate act, he held up the last scrap of his tent, torn and battered beyond use, as a shield against the vengeful spirits. He closed his eyes, feeling a chill on his skin, and prepared to accept his fate. But nothing happened. Cautious, and confused, Onyx opened one eye. The shades were milling around him, eyes returned to their placid green, their anger passed. Onyx looked down at the scrap in his hand and was shocked to see it crumbling into fine black dust. Silver thread, he thought. All this time and he had never known. He bowed his head, giving it a silent thanks for saving his life one final time. For all the good it had done, it was of no use to his companions. Strangers, acquaintances, even some whom he had begun to call friends. All lay dead on the ground, withered beyond recognition, shades peeling away from their corpses "Well, well, well," a voice chuckled. Old Ben. "What have we here, hm? A little mouse, hidden away? Too scared to risk the trap, hm?" Despair welled up inside Onyx. Once again, he had fled. Hidden away, while those around him died. He'd done nothing to save them. "Now, now," said Old Ben. "Don't cry. This will all be over soon." A silver knife scraped against its sheath. Onyx slumped. He'd survived, but for nothing. And so he would die. No, a voice inside of him said. This won't end like this. Can't end like this. At his side, his hand closed around the hilt of his mother's silver knife. With one last defiant scream, he pulled the blade free, lashing out at the traitor, the murderer. Old Ben gurgled in surprise, falling to the ground, the silver knife buried in his chest. Onyx slumped to the ground as dozens of eyes flashed red, turning towards him. As the shades, approached, however, Onyx realized he recognized their faces. "Mother?" he whispered. "Father?" He closed his eyes one final time and accepted their embrace, reunited with his family at last. The Wandering Wizard was executed! He was a Crewmember with Silver Dust! Kasimir was killed! He was a Crewmember! Vote Count: The Wandering Wizard (4): xinoehp512, Kasimir, The Wandering Wizard, Turtle The Shades have won! Congratulations to @Turtle and @The Bookwyrm for a well-played game! Doc Links: Master Sheet Dead/Spec Doc Elim Doc Full GM thoughts to come later, but a special thanks to @Devotary of Spontaneity for closing the cycle semi-last minute and otherwise being an awesome IM. Thanks to @xinoehp512 for the second half of the writeup, after the three stars. Give him some upvotes for that, as well as for his excellent protecting during the game Player List: Spoiler @The Wandering Wizard - Jeffrey Jeffrey - Crewmember - Silver Dust @Archer - Gale - Crewmember @Kasimir - Silas Keen - Crewmember @Turtle - Old Ben - Shade - Fenweed Sap @The Unknown Novel - Mat Rims - Crewmember @The Bookwyrm - Wylir - Shade - Silver Dust @Ashbringer - Not Sure Who - Crewmember - Silver Knife @JNV - Jal - Crewmember - Silver Dust @Shining Silhouette - Jo - Crewmember - Fenweed Sap @xinoehp512 - Onyx - Crewmember - Tent Thanks for playing, everyone! I personally had a blast and had forgotten how much I enjoyed GMing. Edited November 14, 2022 by Matrim's Dice 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Turtle Posted November 12, 2022 Report Share Posted November 12, 2022 (edited) hahaha hello there will post longer thoughts later but gg yall that was a rlly fun game wiz sorry for getting u mld :((( i have a meme that i’ll edit in in a bit edit: am reading through the spec doc, apparently for a while my doc was longer and for that i am proud also can’t believe i got that 50/50 on killing the person without the tent i was rlly scared there edit 2: Quote I already RNGd for the current count, and the count if turtle votes. The former hits silver dust, the latter doesn’t bro Edited November 12, 2022 by Turtle 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mat Posted November 12, 2022 Author Report Share Posted November 12, 2022 11 minutes ago, Turtle said: bro Yeahhh, you had a 40% chance of death and no Violation instead of no chance of death and Kas dying :P. That was one of many happenstances that were hilarious to anyone behind the curtain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
xinoehp512 Posted November 12, 2022 Report Share Posted November 12, 2022 Ahhh, dang. Well, GG Turtle. @The Bookwyrm, how was your first elim game? Also, may I request something for the write-up? 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mat Posted November 12, 2022 Author Report Share Posted November 12, 2022 1 minute ago, xinoehp512 said: Ahhh, dang. Well, GG Turtle. @The Bookwyrm, how was your first elim game? Also, may I request something for the write-up? Absolutely! Shoot me a PM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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