26 posts in this topic

LG89 Night 2: Unfounded

A few kandra could have encountered ArVaal in the night. One of them was WalDo. They'd been a bit too hard to find, maybe a bit too aware. WalDo insisted they were a member of the Second Generation, had the knowledge of the First in order to prove it. The council imprisoned them all the same.

 

Shqueeves was imprisoned! They were a member of the Second Generation with a Blessing of Awareness!

 

Vote Count:

  • Shqueeves (4): Matrim's Dice, The Wandering Wizard, Shining Silhouette, Kasimir
  • _Stick_ (2): Conquestor, JNV
  • Shining Silhouette (2): _Stick_, Illwei
  • The Unknown Novel (1): The Unknown Novel

 

@SymphonianBookworm is being warned for inactivity. Please make a post this turn or you will be replaced by a pinch hitter. (Speaking of which, if any onlookers would like to become pinch hitters, let me know!)

 

The turn will end at 8:00 PM PDT (or 10:00 PM CDT) on Friday, September 23rd.

 

Player List:

Spoiler
  1. @Matrim's Dice - MaTriim
  2. @The Unknown Novel - NoVeel
  3. @The Wandering Wizard - WiiZaad
  4. @_Stick_ - Stiiik
  5. Shqueeves - WalDoSecond Generation, Blessing of Awareness
  6. Araris Valerian - ArVaal Second Generation, Blessing of Presence
  7. xinoehp512 - NottIt Third Generation, Blessing of Potency
  8. @Conquestor - ConQuis
  9. @Shining Silhouette - Taazzel
  10. @SymphonianBookworm - Zanaria
  11. @Kasimir - KeSaam
  12. @Turtle - TurTaal
  13. @JNV - JenVee
  14. @Illwei - IllWei

 

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I feel confident about stick being village, just as I feel confident about an elim being on the shqueeves train

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16 minutes ago, Illwei said:

I feel confident about stick being village, just as I feel confident about an elim being on the shqueeves train

Who do think is Elim on the Shqueeves train? I don't think it would be Wizard or Kas. I could see it being Mat or Shining though. 

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Well that’s annoying but whatever I guess

1 hour ago, Conquestor said:

Who do think is Elim on the Shqueeves train? I don't think it would be Wizard or Kas. I could see it being Mat or Shining though. 

This opinion is kinda eh from your POV since I’m on the list but I’d switch myself out with Kas there if I need to have two. Kas felt like v Kas this turn but Wiz was voted on by xino in a way that makes me think they’re unpaired. Shining… I still don’t know why e!them stays on xino though.

Does there have to be an elim on the train :P. I’ll look at wagonomics tomorrow ig 

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52 minutes ago, Matrim's Dice said:

Shining… I still don’t know why e!them stays on xino though.

This is still my main issue with E!Silho, and I'd like to know how @Illwei or @_Stick_ account for Silho staying put in E!Silho world. I feel like the vote analysis and the post analysis currently just talk past each other. Like...I agree that given E!Coinshot has one extra free kill, willingly surrendering that when the goal is just to survive one Turn is just weird decision-making, and Silho was in a position to affect that. I guess it's not impossible that Silho thought that swapping a vote was too risky, and that a tie was fine/Xino could self-pres, but IDK. Risk appetite question?

I suppose the counter to that is that if we think there has to be an Elim on the Shqueeves train (why? - if V!Stick, V!Shqueeves, either train is fine for the Elims - there's only an issue if you hypothesise E!Silho and the train swing was to pad away from Silho.) - leaving that parenthetical aside, if we think there has to be an Elim on the Shqueeves train, then I'm more or less committed to Silho. But I'm not really sure I am committed to that view yet. Akan datang. Vote analysis later.

@Illwei - You mentioned you think Wiz might be E. Why? I'm of the view that Xino trying to put a distancing vote on E!Wiz that early is odd - I guess one could say it's early and Xino always planned to withdraw, but it is a fairly blase way of calling attention to a teammate.

My other thing about Wiz is that as far as I can tell, the vote situation would've been a tie, causing no one to die, before Wiz intervened to vote Shqueeves. In an E!Stick world, this is obviously bad. (I guess? Or is the theory that the Elims are so far down they have to force a ML? But basically almost anyone could've done it anyway.) In a V!Stick world, this is...unnecessary for E!Wiz. It's possible there's some level of meta-play there, but Stick intuitively feels like the better ML for the Elims - Shqueeves has historically never been very active in any game not QF30 (Devo can feel free to correct me there as I believe they have playhistory.) 

Skimmed the thread but I'll do the vote analysis for last Turn later if I'm not dead knackered after class tonight. If not, I'll do it after class tomorrow .__.

Impression is of the last minute swing - but if V!Stick, then that just seems odd. Elims have no particular reason to gaf about the Stick-Shqueeves brawl, so how does it get swingy? If E!Stick, swinginess is obvious. No assessment until I get the time to look through the vote progression. Intuitive theory has to do with nascent JNV/Silho trains in a V/V ShTick world.

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4 hours ago, Kasimir said:

This is still my main issue with E!Silho, and I'd like to know how @Illwei or @_Stick_ account for Silho staying put in E!Silho world. I feel like the vote analysis and the post analysis currently just talk past each other. Like...I agree that given E!Coinshot has one extra free kill, willingly surrendering that when the goal is just to survive one Turn is just weird decision-making, and Silho was in a position to affect that. I guess it's not impossible that Silho thought that swapping a vote was too risky, and that a tie was fine/Xino could self-pres, but IDK. Risk appetite question?

Yeah like I said, I'm not familiar with Shining's playstyle so I can't really make confident assumptions about their risk appetite but from what they've said I'd be willing to bet they're one of the more cautious players. @Anyone who's played with them before - please weigh in on this.

4 hours ago, Kasimir said:

I suppose the counter to that is that if we think there has to be an Elim on the Shqueeves train (why? - if V!Stick, V!Shqueeves, either train is fine for the Elims - there's only an issue if you hypothesise E!Silho and the train swing was to pad away from Silho.) - leaving that parenthetical aside, if we think there has to be an Elim on the Shqueeves train, then I'm more or less committed to Silho. But I'm not really sure I am committed to that view yet. Akan datang. Vote analysis later

Tbh I don't know if there absolutely has to be an elim on the Squeeves train (although this comes with the knowledge of my own alignment). But if we assume e!Shining for a second, their vote on Squeeves brought it up to 3-2-2 between myself, Shining, and Squeeves. But it's important to note that their vote came after Mat explicitly said he'd be okay with moving his vote to Squeeves if other people moved there. And sure enough he did, after an hour, bringing it up to 3-3 between myself and Squeeves. At this point, it's in the interests of both alignments to break the tie because just like the elims want one less player to deal with, the village wants a flip to work with. After Mat's vote was cast, both exe candidates were v so it was safe play for elims so they could sit back with their popcorn if they wanted. Wiz broke the tie, and I think I maintain my mild v-read of them for now.

Also - TUN. Why are people village reading them, again? I don't know how I feel about that self-vote because it exudes nonchalance and given the state of the votes at that point I would think the elims were pretty unconcerned about the exe.

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That was unexpected. I'll do a deeper analysis later when I have time to sit down and gather my thoughts, ie not in school. 

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24 minutes ago, The Wandering Wizard said:

That was unexpected. I'll do a deeper analysis later when I have time to sit down and gather my thoughts, ie not in school. 

^^

1 hour ago, _Stick_ said:

Also - TUN. Why are people village reading them, again? I don't know how I feel about that self-vote because it exudes nonchalance and given the state of the votes at that point I would think the elims were pretty unconcerned about the exe.

Will have to think more about this- you raise an interesting point.

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I took TUN out of my PoE because he was one of two people xino suspected but I’m not sure how much stock we should put in that. I feel like killing a lower active isn’t our best course of action for tomorrow (even if we did already get a hit that way :P) but I guess that depends on how you define lower active. There’s only so much you can do with almost no info.

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4 hours ago, _Stick_ said:

Yeah like I said, I'm not familiar with Shining's playstyle so I can't really make confident assumptions about their risk appetite but from what they've said I'd be willing to bet they're one of the more cautious players. @Anyone who's played with them before - please weigh in on this.

I don't know I'd agree with that profile, but @Matrim's Dice worked with Shining in both Shining's games, so I think he'd be a useful barometer. My observation from playing against E!Shining as a Villager is that Shining thought a good play in a cycle (C4, for anyone who wants to refer to QF62) where the Village was going to lynch E!Mat was to commit hard and come in late and support Mat staunchly - Refuge in Audacity, if you will. He gambled that if he supported Mat extremely strongly, we wouldn't read him as Evil for it. My view is that the conservative play is to distance and to bandwagon. 

I'll also note that Shining basically tried to play the derpclear / new(er) player bluff, though not in the traditional way, so that's very much within his repertoire. To me, that indicates flexibility. He definitely had me indecisive on the basis of his tone. (Not necessarily relevant here, but I'm bringing the profile up since we're on the topic - I'd say flexible player with a decent amount of risk-positivity, but I cannot definitively rule out conservative play in this instance. I presume your theory then is that you more or less picked up his actual considerations vis-a-vis what kept him off defending Xino.)

He also explicitly paid attention to how players were trying to clear other players as Village and to use those reasons - so it was an explicitly targeted sort of blending in. I'll probably go back and look to see if that shows up in any posts, but that's a later problem.

Now, could the game have had an effect? I'd expect so - people usually learn from experience. It's possible that Shining decided that it didn't work and went back to being conservative, since he got lynched the cycle after Mat. 

4 hours ago, _Stick_ said:

Tbh I don't know if there absolutely has to be an elim on the Squeeves train (although this comes with the knowledge of my own alignment). But if we assume e!Shining for a second, their vote on Squeeves brought it up to 3-2-2 between myself, Shining, and Squeeves. But it's important to note that their vote came after Mat explicitly said he'd be okay with moving his vote to Squeeves if other people moved there. And sure enough he did, after an hour, bringing it up to 3-3 between myself and Squeeves. At this point, it's in the interests of both alignments to break the tie because just like the elims want one less player to deal with, the village wants a flip to work with. After Mat's vote was cast, both exe candidates were v so it was safe play for elims so they could sit back with their popcorn if they wanted. Wiz broke the tie, and I think I maintain my mild v-read of them for now.

1. Agree in that I don't see a break as being explicitly V/E-indicative, but believe the Es have more incentive to sit back, as tie-breaking could draw unnecessary condemnation - late vote movements tend to draw attention. Relying on the fact that Vs would likely break the tie no matter what, and if it is a V/V tie, then you have no investment in how it is broken, only that it is broken. I note that Wiz has a tendency to E!read late vote movements (cf. Elan's recent MR) so I do not know if E!Wiz would try to use it on a meta level.  Don't think we substantively disagree on assessment of the situation post-Mat (in a V-V world) and on Wiz.

2. As I said, my issue with Shining right now is I feel the votes and the post reads point in different directions. I accept I prioritise votes more, as I presume you and Illwei prioritise the posts more, but it bothers me that they don't talk to each other at all, because they come from the same player and alignment! I will concede it is probably easier to reconcile the votes than the posts, but even so. But I would agree that in an E!Shining world, that vote shift would explain things, but also:

Two things on my akan datang list due to time (I just got back from night classes, it is 12:30AM, I have class tomorrow, w00ts.) I list them because someone else can do them as well and I'd probably encourage it but will still do it myself:

- Evolution of lynchlist across D2

- Vote progression analysis

I recall noting at some point about how much people are agreeing on the <JNV, Shining, Shqueeves> shortlist in the cycle. It was late, and a brief impression, so I didn't have the bandwidth to chase it down, but it's something I want to look at. I'm not sure how often strong agreement occurs and I think it could be noteworthy (though how to interpret?) if suspicions have coalesced so narrowly.

4 hours ago, _Stick_ said:

Also - TUN. Why are people village reading them, again? I don't know how I feel about that self-vote because it exudes nonchalance and given the state of the votes at that point I would think the elims were pretty unconcerned about the exe.

It's also very blatant and showy, though. Does E!TUN do that? I presume that at some point, an Elim will actively exploit the dgaf = Village line of reasoning, but I can't help but think an Elim team with one member down doesn't play around as much. Easier to simply not vote at all.

Also - for TUN, it's a weak Village read, on the basis of him unvoting when tied with Wiz:

On 9/22/2022 at 0:51 AM, Kasimir said:

Wiz (2): Mat, Xino
Mat (2): TUN, Araris

Stick (1): Kas
TUN (2): Illwei, Conq
Xino (1): Silho

This is the situation. And TUN simply unvotes and doesn't put his vote elsewhere. Sure, it's insanely early in the cycle, but it doesn't really cost him to leave his vote there. The counterpoint could be: it's early, and also that at that point, TUN felt certain his teammates would protect him. This is fair depending on your theorised team and if you believe Wiz and Mat are Village, (also Stick I guess) since that's two potential trains capable of taking off. But it still seems a counterintuitive move for E!TUN to make, I suppose, so that nudges me a bit towards V.

I did entertain E!TUN insofar as:

On 9/22/2022 at 0:51 AM, Kasimir said:

This ties Wiz, Mat, and TUN. So he kind of has a bit of a slight sus of TUN:

On 9/19/2022 at 4:27 AM, xinoehp512 said:

Standard reminder ties are of the eliminators yadda yadda yadda I'm sure this is nothing new. Maybe slight sus towards TUN for his attitude towards ties but it was the second post in the cycle he didn't exactly have much of a choice. :P.

Half takes it back, and then votes on another train other than TUN, further diluting the votes and making the tie even more stable. Slight ??? of TUN here from Xino's attitude - I don't consider it as damning as vote dilution but I think it's definitely a bit more friendly to TUN than I'd expect off his comments. TUN for now I guess I can change it or roll a die for it later on.

Yes I know sorry I quote myself because it is late and I am CBA tired and past!me probably was thinking better than I am now, just let me do it. Basically that flag of TUN and half-taking it back is kinda weird, especially since Xino...has voted alongside TUN in the same post. But I don't really know how to read it, other than that it could be perfunctory softballing to distance from a teammate. But I don't really feel it since he didn't vote there. IDK. Your thoughts?

15 hours ago, Conquestor said:

P.S. I also don't know how I feel about everyone targeting the inactives. It makes it easy to explain the seeming lack of thread control, but there is no way that the whole team is inactive, right? 

I think my main worry is that it's like LG73. (Like, how do you want to think about the Elim team? If you want to think Ash will nudge team compositions to make sure at least one active is on, then I'm in a quandary because one reason I was not sure about Stick was simple PoE - I had strong V reads in you and Mat, somewhat less but still there in Illwei, Araris flipped Village, I sure as hell know I'm Village so who the hell is left in that profile? But ok - suppose Stick is Village. Then I'm more or less committed to what consensus already is, that the team is hiding in low or semi actives. Though I suppose it's less of a problem for you because you suspect Mat :P ) We've had games before when the Elims had low vote control, a low activity profile and Devo just ruthlessly bussed every single one of her teammates. We probably only found TUN via map hoarding or something like that. It felt like that game was just hunting for needles in a haystack and I don't recall how we did it, but we did have to ruthlessly vote despite low information.

Not saying we have to do it here. I could be badly wrong about the profile of the Elim team. I think my thought just is that if that's where reasoning and arguing with people and adjusting your evidence takes you, then sometimes it do be that way.

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5 minutes ago, Kasimir said:

I don't know I'd agree with that profile, but @Matrim's Dice worked with Shining in both Shining's games, so I think he'd be a useful barometer.

I agree with Kas more on that one, for the reasons he said, and I don't really have much more to add. I think it's within Shining's playstyle to have voted a teammate but I guess I'm still just stuck on why they stayed-- it's a gambit and a gamble, but with a low active xino and him being a Coinshot on D1 there isn't much incentive for that to happen.

Edited by Matrim's Dice
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11 hours ago, Kasimir said:

This is still my main issue with E!Silho, and I'd like to know how @Illwei or @_Stick_ account for Silho staying put in E!Silho world. I feel like the vote analysis and the post analysis currently just talk past each other. Like...I agree that given E!Coinshot has one extra free kill, willingly surrendering that when the goal is just to survive one Turn is just weird decision-making, and Silho was in a position to affect that. I guess it's not impossible that Silho thought that swapping a vote was too risky, and that a tie was fine/Xino could self-pres, but IDK. Risk appetite question?

As an Elim, I realized how much each turn (and as such each kill) mattered. Personally I'm not one to give up an extra kill if it doesn't seem to come with a sizable reward. This scenario is heavy risk but light reward. I might be one to go for risky plays, but only if there's a sizable reward in sight. At this point, at least. My meta is constantly evolving (actually constantly being formed because I'm still figuring things out). Imo this play doesn't make sense (of course E!Me'd say that, but whatever). 

1 hour ago, Kasimir said:

Now, could the game have had an effect? I'd expect so - people usually learn from experience. It's possible that Shining decided that it didn't work and went back to being conservative, since he got lynched the cycle after Mat. 

Are you saying that E!Me would be more conservative after last game and wouldn't take a risk like this after last game?

1 hour ago, Kasimir said:

hough I suppose it's less of a problem for you because you suspect Mat :P ) We've had games before when the Elims had low vote control, a low activity profile and Devo just ruthlessly bussed every single one of her teammates. We probably only found TUN via map hoarding or something like that. It felt like that game was just hunting for needles in a haystack and I don't recall how we did it, but we did have to ruthlessly vote despite low information.

Not saying we have to do it here. I could be badly wrong about the profile of the Elim team. I think my thought just is that if that's where reasoning and arguing with people and adjusting your evidence takes you, then sometimes it do be that way.

My worry this game is that an Elim is vil-read by most people. If they have thread influence, they can exe villagers during the day and kill at night. Thread control is important this game, I think. I know I'm stating the obvious, but probably this means that there's at least one elim on the Shqueeves train.

Out of Mat, Wiz, and Kas, I'm probably most suspicious of Kas, if anything just because I feel like nobody has been suspicious of him. E!Kas is worst for the village imo just because of their thread influence. The others idk. 

I feel like in terms of inactive people, there has to be at least one that is an elim. Not Symph, if only because of inactivity. Possbily TUN? The cheeky vote last cycle feels really noncommittal, but if you're someone who doesn't have too much time, it makes sense.

I need to think more. My thoughts are a mess.

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2 minutes ago, Shining Silhouette said:

I feel like nobody has been suspicious of him.

*raises hand*

Backed down a bit but whatever. You're right that an e!Kas should be resolved fast but we know full well how useful a v!Kas is for the village at exlo :P.

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8 minutes ago, Matrim's Dice said:

*raises hand*

Backed down a bit but whatever. You're right that an e!Kas should be resolved fast but we know full well how useful a v!Kas is for the village at exlo :P.

Yeah. (Potential) big risk, big reward again I guess.

I'll look through his posts later.

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1 hour ago, Kasimir said:

He gambled that if he supported Mat extremely strongly, we wouldn't read him as Evil for it. My view is that the conservative play is to distance and to bandwagon. 

I'll also note that Shining basically tried to play the derpclear / new(er) player bluff, though not in the traditional way, so that's very much within his repertoire. To me, that indicates flexibility. He definitely had me indecisive on the basis of his tone. (Not necessarily relevant here, but I'm bringing the profile up since we're on the topic - I'd say flexible player with a decent amount of risk-positivity, but I cannot definitively rule out conservative play in this instance. I presume your theory then is that you more or less picked up his actual considerations vis-a-vis what kept him off defending Xino.)

He also explicitly paid attention to how players were trying to clear other players as Village and to use those reasons - so it was an explicitly targeted sort of blending in. I'll probably go back and look to see if that shows up in any posts, but that's a later problem.

Now, could the game have had an effect? I'd expect so - people usually learn from experience. It's possible that Shining decided that it didn't work and went back to being conservative, since he got lynched the cycle after Mat. 

That's very interesting. Considering the adverse effects of defending Mat there, I guess it's not unreasonable to consider that they might've decided to approach things at a different angle this time around.

1 hour ago, Kasimir said:

I recall noting at some point about how much people are agreeing on the <JNV, Shining, Shqueeves> shortlist in the cycle. It was late, and a brief impression, so I didn't have the bandwidth to chase it down, but it's something I want to look at. I'm not sure how often strong agreement occurs and I think it could be noteworthy (though how to interpret?) if suspicions have coalesced so narrowly.

Right! The JNV train - it dissolved quickly once the other trains gained traction. Think it's worth looking into next turn.

1 hour ago, Kasimir said:

Basically that flag of TUN and half-taking it back is kinda weird, especially since Xino...has voted alongside TUN in the same post. But I don't really know how to read it, other than that it could be perfunctory softballing to distance from a teammate. But I don't really feel it since he didn't vote there. IDK. Your thoughts?

Given that this was probably the only real opinion xino ever shared I feel like it has to mean something - although I do remember tirelessly pursuing some random player E!Araris name-dropped once in some game (before unexpectedly getting exe'd C1), eventually exeing that player and getting the green flip. So while I wouldn't say that interaction alone is worth exeing TUN, it does seem like distancing to me. Their self-vote from last turn, though, sticks out to me because I vividly remember E!TUN doing that in QF61.

16 minutes ago, Shining Silhouette said:

Out of Mat, Wiz, and Kas, I'm probably most suspicious of Kas, if anything just because I feel like nobody has been suspicious of him. E!Kas is worst for the village imo just because of their thread influence. 

 

12 minutes ago, Matrim's Dice said:

*raises hand*

Backed down a bit but whatever. You're right that an e!Kas should be resolved fast but we know full well how useful a v!Kas is for the village at exlo :P.

I've...been thinking about this. It's a struggle trying to read Kas this game because his C1 was different due to RL reasons than his C2 so I don't know how much stock I should be putting into my gut here. The procrastinator in me wants to shelve it for now though :P 

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1 hour ago, Matrim's Dice said:

I agree with Kas more on that one, for the reasons he said, and I don't really have much more to add. I think it's within Shining's playstyle to have voted a teammate but I guess I'm still just stuck on why they stayed-- it's a gambit and a gamble, but with a low active xino and him being a Coinshot on D1 there isn't much incentive for that to happen.

That's what I struggle with. I feel Illwei and Stick basically require conservative play, or I suppose a gamble that Xino could self-pres, but that doesn't quite fit with his player profile.

34 minutes ago, Shining Silhouette said:

As an Elim, I realized how much each turn (and as such each kill) mattered. Personally I'm not one to give up an extra kill if it doesn't seem to come with a sizable reward. This scenario is heavy risk but light reward. I might be one to go for risky plays, but only if there's a sizable reward in sight. At this point, at least. My meta is constantly evolving (actually constantly being formed because I'm still figuring things out). Imo this play doesn't make sense (of course E!Me'd say that, but whatever). 

Do you think that not getting E!Silho exed and in turn, drawing attention to Xino might count as a reward?

35 minutes ago, Shining Silhouette said:

Are you saying that E!Me would be more conservative after last game and wouldn't take a risk like this after last game?

Are you saying that E!you wouldn't do that?

FWIW, I don't know - this is why I'm asking Mat (especially) and other players to weigh in. I dislike the fact that the vote analysis and post analysis tug in opposite directions and I think the whole point of this game is to collectively solve. And out of curiosity, what is your response to Illwei and Stick's point about your posts emerging from an Elim mindset?

37 minutes ago, Shining Silhouette said:

My worry this game is that an Elim is vil-read by most people. If they have thread influence, they can exe villagers during the day and kill at night. Thread control is important this game, I think. I know I'm stating the obvious, but probably this means that there's at least one elim on the Shqueeves train.

I'm least worried about that, because I think that's very easy to ascertain via a pattern of behaviour, by allowing players enough rope to hang themselves.

Thread control is important in this game.

So much thread control that an E!Coinshot died D1?

And...somehow this leads to the inference that there's at least one Elim on the Shqueeves train?

Question for you. Suppose you lynch me or someone kills me. Grant me, even if it stretches credulity, the proposition that I flip Village.

What's your gameplan from there? Who do you flip next on the Shqueeves train, if you think at least one of the Shqueeves train is Evil?

39 minutes ago, Shining Silhouette said:

Out of Mat, Wiz, and Kas, I'm probably most suspicious of Kas, if anything just because I feel like nobody has been suspicious of him. E!Kas is worst for the village imo just because of their thread influence. The others idk. 

Quote

Kas, What's your view on mat right now and how has that evolved from voting him at EoD while calling him village? Parts of your posts are pinging me, specifically the

Quote

EDIT: Yes, my village reads are basically the people who are talking. I have some reservations about kas but there's a recent post....I suppose I'm conflicted on. But I'm not going to talk about it because it could quickly spiral.

Quote

Meaning that none of the elims are being voted on, the elims that are being voted on don't have many votes, or they are confident in masking their vote manip. This puts (Mat, TUN, Me, Conq, Symph, Kas, Turtle, JNV, and Illwei) in that group, maybe Shining. If I clear those I read village (Mat, TUN, Me, Conq, Symph, Kas, Turtle, JNV, and Illwei

Quote

Kas dropping his RP so early makes me feel like he is more likely to be an Elim, when in reality it's probably NAI, but I do think it's more likely to be an Elim slightly because of how little is going on and how little there is so comment on. This is a useful sentence.

Quote

Kas? Don’t really want to kill returning Shqueeves D1 after so few posts from them

Ah yes, someone has to introduce me to this fellow Kas, who has a significant amount of thread control and is universally trusted and not at all suspected :P

So...I'm suspicious because you don't think anyone suspects me, despite people mentioning they have me as a potential Elim - despite Illwei mentioning last cycle that she had reservations about me, despite Mat and Illwei being more or less being universally considered Village and also not being suspected, and also having reservations about me. And in fact, I'm so suspicious that you want to put me on the table 'just in case', but need to go re-read my posts to look for ammo against me.

Ok, that checks out :P

46 minutes ago, Shining Silhouette said:

E!Kas is worst for the village imo just because of their thread influence. The others idk. 

What thread influence?

I put my ideas down. Illwei and Stick are A+ post readers - if I try anything sneaky, there is a good chance they'll catch me. V!Stick has caught E!me very early on at least twice. V!Mat has too (yes yes Mat, if I don't acknowledge this, I suppose you'll never let me live.) People can agree or disagree with them, e.g. Illwei and Stick disagreeing with my take on your voting patterns. My job is to put my thoughts down and to keep discussion flowing because Village needs discussion. That's it.

If anything, E!me doesn't like to do this because trying to force discussion is uninteresting and suffering.

Do you think Illwei has thread influence? Mat? Conq? Do you think they're driving agenda, influencing reads? So where does this picture of me having unrivalled and unparalleled and uncontestable thread influence emerge from? Kinda smells funny.

46 minutes ago, Matrim's Dice said:

Backed down a bit but whatever. You're right that an e!Kas should be resolved fast but we know full well how useful a v!Kas is for the village at exlo :P.

I would be the first to disagree. I show up. And I will agonise and revise my reads to the last second granted me, which is admittedly something E!me doesn't do and I struggle to disguise (see: Maili calling E!me out for read confidence.) Sure, the fact I will revise ad infinitum is good because I usually get to the right answer in the end, but that's only by virtue of kicking the thread into action and being willing to rethink a gazillion times. It's also a weakness, as you and Shining discovered by ruthlessly FUDing me last game. If you're V, Stick is V, Conq is V, and Illwei is V (which seems a bit extreme, so I do question it, even though I don't feel inclined to revise those reads just yet), the Village has an analytical powerhouse, you'll all more than exceed anything I can do, so I don't have significant worries on that front if it takes flipping me to get there.

I don't really know if E!me should be resolved fast just because it's E!me compared to basically the principle Es should be resolved fast, but it is what it is. All my E games have felt like an uphill struggle.

34 minutes ago, _Stick_ said:

That's very interesting. Considering the adverse effects of defending Mat there, I guess it's not unreasonable to consider that they might've decided to approach things at a different angle this time around.

Like...is it possible to sort of explain it? Yeah, I guess. But at the same time, like Mat says, the expected reward there just boggles me and I don't know. I would probably apply pressure there, that's for sure. I admit I regret holding fire though :)

36 minutes ago, _Stick_ said:

Right! The JNV train - it dissolved quickly once the other trains gained traction. Think it's worth looking into next turn.

Well, that and the theorised Shining train, but also just - the fact that there was such a consensus about where the Elims were hiding and the fact there was little real contestation or vote activity (not in a high temperature way early) makes me wonder if it was because the consensus pool was 'comfortable' and wrong. I don't know. I need to go think through that. That's not happening tonight, unfortunately.

And yes, for the record, it could imply we need to look outside the <Shining, JNV> set and I'm more than perfectly okay with that.

37 minutes ago, _Stick_ said:

Given that this was probably the only real opinion xino ever shared I feel like it has to mean something - although I do remember tirelessly pursuing some random player E!Araris name-dropped once in some game (before unexpectedly getting exe'd C1), eventually exeing that player and getting the green flip. So while I wouldn't say that interaction alone is worth exeing TUN, it does seem like distancing to me. Their self-vote from last turn, though, sticks out to me because I vividly remember E!TUN doing that in QF61.

Not for the first time, I point out I'm not much of a post-reader :P Maybe TJ can ID teammates from posts but I really can't reliably do that. Which means that I'm reluctant to try, but I flag it anyway in the hopes someone more able at that form of analysis than me can take a crack at it.

Oh, fair point about QF61. I'll go look it up.

39 minutes ago, _Stick_ said:

I've...been thinking about this. It's a struggle trying to read Kas this game because his C1 was different due to RL reasons than his C2 so I don't know how much stock I should be putting into my gut here. The procrastinator in me wants to shelve it for now though :P 

I don't blame you, it was a very ersatz C1 for me and I accept the implications :P 

I think I've been fairly upfront about my thought process so far as soon as I've been able to get back into the game, even if it has been all over the place, so hopefully that will also be helpful in allowing people to read me or to try to find/formulate suspicions.

Something I'm hesitating to say but kind of just want to, since there seems to be widespread ignorance about my meta - if I'm E, Xino doesn't die C1 without a fight. There's no point at all in thread control if you can't use it to defend key players on your team when they need it, and letting go of a Coinshot is a painful trade. It's a comment I've made before about how Evil players sometimes get too caught up in trying to appear Village and not in asking what good that does for their team, and I've been sympathetic to Illwei's rants on that front. I absolutely have always been willing to sacrifice myself for my team, and I held on for what, three cycles? Four cycles? As a solo Elim trying to protect Orlok despite more or less suffering a mental breakdown trying to fight Aman, Mat, and Illwei at the same time.

I wasn't present for Fifth, but I was present around EoD, as I mentioned, if silent because I was distracted by RL. But no matter how RL makes me feel, I do not put my feelings over the needs of my team if I can at all help it. Xino would have needed me. I would have answered. Not going to say too much about what I'd have done - I have some ideas, but that distracts from the thread. What's key is if you think I have that much thread control and am that dangerous, then you likely assent to the proposition I could have at the very least thrown significant friction into Xino's lynch.

Take it for what it's worth. Obviously, I could be Evil. But V!me and dead!me have been fairly consistent in sketching out my meta across docs and games, and this is basically up my alley. I take one for my team, whether Village or Evil, and I'd rather take the exe or NK than let my teammates die, if I can possibly help it. In Xino's case, the strategic implications definitely point towards keeping Xino alive where possible.

No particular reason to be saying this, and it does violate what Araris and I consider a cardinal rule of play, but the collective ignorance about my meta after all this time is rather astounding, and I've never been very good at not running my mouth off, so take this for what it's worth, and I'll see you on the other side of rollover, or in the dead doc, whichever happens :P 

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I really don't like Shining's tone and their arguments against Kas, who doesn't feel like elim Kas to me.

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2 hours ago, Kasimir said:

Do you think that not getting E!Silho exed and in turn, drawing attention to Xino might count as a reward?

Are you saying that E!you wouldn't do that?

Yeah, probably. But not a big enough reward in my eyes. What's the point of doing something that gets me a lot of attention and potentially kills my teammate?

I was actually just trying to make sure I understood your point there :P

2 hours ago, Kasimir said:

And out of curiosity, what is your response to Illwei and Stick's point about your posts emerging from an Elim mindset?

I find it genuinely fascinating. Maybe that's how I view the game now. Imo saying "the village" and discussing them as a separate entity isn't really suspicious, but I haven't really absorbed what the general meta is there. It's just how I've been wording things, I don't really see it as a "find" or a "slip" on my part, that's just the terminology I've been using.

2 hours ago, Kasimir said:

I'm least worried about that, because I think that's very easy to ascertain via a pattern of behaviour, by allowing players enough rope to hang themselves.

Thread control is important in this game.

So much thread control that an E!Coinshot died D1?

And...somehow this leads to the inference that there's at least one Elim on the Shqueeves train?

Question for you. Suppose you lynch me or someone kills me. Grant me, even if it stretches credulity, the proposition that I flip Village.

What's your gameplan from there? Who do you flip next on the Shqueeves train, if you think at least one of the Shqueeves train is Evil?

 Actually yes, you're right, that was a fallacious inference. I meant to say that it's a possibility that's maybe more probable, if we assume that the Elims have thread control as Shqueeves obviously took the most votes. But yeah, doesn't really make sense

Honestly, I wasn't thinking that far ahead. I think I must've stated things wrong if you think that I wanted to lynch you. I went from my (fallacious) reasoning about how it makes sense that there is an elim on the Shqueeves train to who I found most suspicious on that train. In general, though, I'm not really willing to lynch you at this point.

2 hours ago, Kasimir said:

Ah yes, someone has to introduce me to this fellow Kas, who has a significant amount of thread control and is universally trusted and not at all suspected :P

So...I'm suspicious because you don't think anyone suspects me, despite people mentioning they have me as a potential Elim - despite Illwei mentioning last cycle that she had reservations about me, despite Mat and Illwei being more or less being universally considered Village and also not being suspected, and also having reservations about me. And in fact, I'm so suspicious that you want to put me on the table 'just in case', but need to go re-read my posts to look for ammo against me.

Ok, that checks out :P

Part of the reason I wanted to check was because I wrote that post without rereading. This whole game, I've basically been skimming most of the posts, so I appreciate the correction, thank you.

Well, when you put it that way, I sound stupid. Maybe I am. Anyway, I feel like you've done a lot of good analysis, and so I've trusted you and I guess I assumed others did because I didn't have any strong memories of accusations against you. But then you (I think it was you) made a reference to a Devo game when she had thread control and that made me think about my first game when Devo did good analysis for the village but ended up being the killer. I guess I did just want to cover my bases against that happening, but I didn't have any good "ammo" at the moment so I planned to go back and reread. 

2 hours ago, Kasimir said:

I put my ideas down. Illwei and Stick are A+ post readers - if I try anything sneaky, there is a good chance they'll catch me. V!Stick has caught E!me very early on at least twice. V!Mat has too (yes yes Mat, if I don't acknowledge this, I suppose you'll never let me live.) People can agree or disagree with them, e.g. Illwei and Stick disagreeing with my take on your voting patterns. My job is to put my thoughts down and to keep discussion flowing because Village needs discussion. That's it.

If anything, E!me doesn't like to do this because trying to force discussion is uninteresting and suffering.

Do you think Illwei has thread influence? Mat? Conq? Do you think they're driving agenda, influencing reads? So where does this picture of me having unrivalled and unparalleled and uncontestable thread influence emerge from? Kinda smells funny.

Okay, consider me wholeheartedly rebutted :P 

That picture comes from me being in my own head and writing posts without first looking for evidence.

This is why I said this earlier:

On 9/20/2022 at 10:22 AM, Shining Silhouette said:

But since I had limited time I decided to just keep it where it was because my reasoning for a vote change would've probably been weak and torn apart by the village because my suspicions aren't too strong right now.

Sometimes I'm nervous about posting my thoughts because I feel like anything I say will be taken under a microscope (good for the village though) and things that make sense in my head seem obviously wrong when written out on paper in thread.

56 minutes ago, The Unknown Novel said:

I really don't like Shining's tone and their arguments against Kas, who doesn't feel like elim Kas to me.

This is funny to me. My tone never does what it's supposed to do :P

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I'm thinking we should kill tun tomorrow tbh

Objections?

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I don't know what scares me more, the fact that I have no objections to this, or the fact that I don't read this a E!Illwei

Edit: Meant to say don't read Illwei evil from post

Edited by The Wandering Wizard
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34 minutes ago, Illwei said:

I'm thinking we should kill tun tomorrow tbh

Objections?

Not really but I guess I don’t see a reason to do that either. I could say he seems to be lower in activity than normal but I’ll be rebutted by times that prove otherwise.

His last post does read kinda evil to me since Shining seems good atm

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Am I the only one who just doesnt get why Shqueeves was on the table at all cause like Silhouette had good and bad and thats why it was confusing Stick was eh but not incredibly weird and thats why it was confusing but Shqueeves just didnt seem to have good or bad I dont really get it like I read Kasimirs post about it a few times I dont know 

15 hours ago, Illwei said:

I feel confident about stick being village, just as I feel confident about an elim being on the shqueeves train

Ok i know these ideas arent mutually exclusive but they feel mutually exclusive cause there was a push on Shqueeves on the end there but if Stick is village theres no motive for that so the only location for evils would be at the beginning but the problem with that is I think Ill just always diehard trust Kasimir thats a problem and Im working on it and look Silhoeutte feels weird but tone is hard and I dont feel like weird tone is evil tone necessarily if anything itd be well not reverse but at least orthagonal and I think I havent bee npaying enough attention to the game honestly I feel lost and its just night 2 and Silhouette is just out there like opinions I dont agree with conclusions I wouldnt draw but Im also trying to work on not voting off everything weird cause weird isnt always evil and theres merit to village Silhoeutte but I dont know

Two worlds one with evil on Shqueeves one without

So in the world without evil on Shqueeves that clears everyone there plus kind of implies the evils didnt care about the vote which implies village Stick 

The pool of everyone not on Shqueeves is Novel Stick Conquestor Symphonian Turtle Illwei 

Taking out Stick for previously mentioned reasons  so then its  Novel Conquestor  Symphonian Turtle Illwei 

I dont really see Illweis xinoehp vote in an evil Illwei world same iwth Conquestors xinoehp vote so it becomsee Novel Symphonian Turtle the people who are just blobs of confusion in my head 

So in the world with evil on Shqueeves it kind of implies evil Stick cause otherwise why care but Ill split it into two worlds

So world where Stick is evil and has a teammate on Shqueeves the Shqueeves voters are Matrim Wizard Silhouette Kasimir based on Matrims xinoehp interactions I dont see it and honestly I could feel similarly about Silhouette but the way silhouette thinks seems very different from the way I think so erring on the side of caution and leaving them in and like 2 hours before rollover D1 Kasimir was online a vote count was fresh the three way tie was obvious and no effort is made not even a preference for a theoretically evil Stick over the one shot kill xinoehp so thats out leaving Wizard and Silhouette and Ill look at those later too

In the world where Stick isnt evil and theres evil on Shqueeves honestly the same argumnets apply to Matrim and Kasimir i guess this split was useless oh well so just ignore the split 

Symphonians just sorta not around so Im ignoring them lets see what replacs them

The Unknown NOvel well I dont really know theyre just sorta there but I dont like their recent statement about Silhouette not that I disagree cause I agree somewhat but the way they just mention the Kasimir argument wahtever especially coming after Kasimirs good rebuttal seems like its sorta riding coattails if you know what I mean saying something easy to say just to seem like youve said something and overall they havent said much at l

Turtle has been seeming weird but weirdly active honestly and kinda feels like Silhouette a bit like talking perpendicularly sorta thing like skew lines not paralel but never touching either but also nothing like Silhouette just kinda simiar by being different from what I expect but they also havent done anything vote wise honestly so leaning kind of hmm for them but like theyve been trying thats nice thats good I feel like thats a good change

With Stick well Stick feels less wobbly but still just a bit but I think its time to broaden the pool of evil especially given how xinoehp death implies low active team like I think Id vote them before Silhouette but theyre not my first choice tomorrow

Wizard well Wizard says a lot of things and doesnt say why and that bugs me but they do that as village too but also I dont know if Ive encountered evil Wizard honestly dont know

Silhouette well weve talked about silhouette a lot and honestly the xinoehp vote has me somewhat convinced ish maybe in them as not evil probably so basically my mind says probably vllage my heart is protesting 

If anyone has potency blessing maybe take a shot at Novel or Wizard the complete black boxes or maybe dont so we can make them waste any protection they have or do it or dont confuse them make it hard to tell 

59 minutes ago, Illwei said:

I'm thinking we should kill tun tomorrow tbh

Objections?

I mean Im kinda against deciding who were voting the night before out of principle to leave ourselves open to more options and reevaluation to make sure we dont let evils hide in the vote by just clumping on a guy but Im ok with The Unknown Novel as an option to vote on 

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19 minutes ago, JNV said:

Wizard well Wizard says a lot of things and doesnt say why and that bugs me but they do that as village too but also I dont know if Ive encountered evil Wizard honestly dont know

I've been evil once, my first game and I was alone on the elim team due to BT rules. If you want explanations I will explain, I just don't always feel like explaining.

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1 hour ago, Illwei said:

I'm thinking we should kill tun tomorrow tbh

Objections?

Other than that I'm village? No.

I'll be on a road trip for football, then Jiu-jitsu, so activity is even iffyer than the past few cycles.

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1 hour till rollover!

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