Quick Fix Game 62: He Who Arises In Might

[Kasimir]

1 minute ago, Matrim's Dice said:

And I agree with that. Another point is that I didn’t even read TUNs post as wanting to die at all, but I don’t know what to do with that. Nothing? :P.

Nothing seems just about right at the moment. Cycle just started. Anything short of a smoking gun is likely to contain some amount of overlatching/overreading in the absence of any context or extra basis for reads at present. No need to rush.

2 minutes ago, Matrim's Dice said:

Anyways, off to bed for real now. Will send some PMs tomorrow, unless I’ve already been sent all the ones I would make. Do we think it’s worth it to limit PMing to force Melkor to make a greater shot in the dark for a conversion, or is it better to have communication since it’s basically a shot in the dark for them anyway?

I lean some variant of:

-Provide cover for Finwe, since this guy is confirmed Village (I think the only one? - TBF everyone except Melkor is confirmed Village right now, but the conversion point I suppose.)
-Maybe don't tell the whole world who you are making PMs with unless necessary, since this lets Melkor identify Finwe and kill Finwe right off the bat, and why make things so easy?
-Comms don't matter if people aren't going to do effective things with them, and thread should not be neglected

There's the option of not making PMs to provide cover for Finwe but I think that's extreme and as much as Fifth double-dog dared me to spend this game without making or replying in PMs, my heart cannot take it  

I would say to simply not over-advertise it. If everyone agrees to make one-on-one PMs with everyone, then Finwe will be outed very fast. This may not be a problem if we want the Silmarils to be released but I'm reluctant to yield Finwe this early. PMs can also be spied on by a Messenger. We know there is at least one Messenger at the moment and the Messenger is likely Village, but it's worth keeping that in mind.

3 minutes ago, Devotary of Spontaneity said:

I can use shields faster than the smiths can make them definitely and for sure.

How does this work when you have one item action?  

3 minutes ago, Devotary of Spontaneity said:

We'd have had better luck with this if we hadn't sealed him away for so long. I'd have to work extra hard to show any compassion to people who did that to me.

Manwe's just a guy, as fallible as the rest of us. He should like it if we disagree with his rulings. Illuvatar could have just made 17 Manwe's if he wanted a bunch of powerful beings to all make the same decisions.

Hey, Manwe agreed with you to spare Melkor!

This guy is absolutely a recidivism risk right now and must be stopped, why are you sympathising with him :eyes:

[Devotary of Spontaneity]

41 minutes ago, Kasimir said:

How does this work when you have one item action?  

Hey, Manwe agreed with you to spare Melkor!

This guy is absolutely a recidivism risk right now and must be stopped, why are you sympathising with him :eyes:

It's an advanced juggling technique. Takes centuries to master.

And he disagreed by imprisoning him in the first place. We couldn't hold him forever, and the longer his forced solitude, the more likely he was to turn on us once free.  Releasing him now gives us and him the best chance we'll ever get.

[Kasimir]

4 minutes ago, Devotary of Spontaneity said:

And he disagreed by imprisoning him in the first place. We couldn't hold him forever, and the longer his forced solitude, the more likely he was to turn on us once free.  Releasing him now gives us and him the best chance we'll ever get.

I say we take him on now.

Eonwe, me, and Túrin Turambar. 

Melkor can be slain :eyes:

Nevermind that Túrin hasn't even been born yet

[Conquestor]

RP

Spoiler

Sethryn sat in the light of Telperion and soaked in its magnificent radiance. He needed something to help clear his mind after everything that's happened. Melkor, good? Melkor released? It seemed almost impossible after all the horror that it took to stop his evil in the first place. Sethryn began to shudder as memories of his father and mother arose from the deep corners of his mind. He wished to never remember those tragic events.

He steeled his mind and refocused on his own breathing and the light. Yet, he could not shake his mind of Melkor. The Destroyer, the Corruptor, the True Darkness, The Great Enemy, and many more names has he. His imprisonment would not... No, could not change a being such as Melkor. His imprisonment would only serve to ripen his hatred and allow him to plan.

There is no way to be sure that they could lock him away again. He is a powerful adversary and yet, he was defeated before and so there is a chance to be able to do it again. The best chance would be to do so before he could gain more power, a time like now. If I could find proof of Melkor's blackened heart, then perhaps Manwe would sentence him to prison again. Melkor's corruption must be pulled up from the roots and it must be done now.

With this thought, Sethryn stood up and gazed into Telperion's light, wondering if this would be the last time he saw it. That thought again made buried memories float to the surface, but Sethryn shoved them down again. He could confront those memories when he finished dealing with Melkor, but until then, he can't be distracted because Melkor is no common foe and needs a fully focused mind to be caught. Sethryn then started walking towards Tirion. He had a gut feeling that he would find Melkor's plots there.

@Kasimir Already voting for me, eh? I see how it is. Yet, I am not getting a bad vibe from you, so I'll leave it be. It's nice to see you back! I was sad when you left our Alcatraz game! Anyways, on to current discussion... 

I have to agree that it is interesting that Melkor lost his first turn immunity it is even more interesting to me that he has only 1 conversion, which means that whoever Melkor is, they are going to want to use it very wisely. Honestly, I would spend at least 2 cycles smithing a helm or trinkets/killing people and then going for the convert, unless we somehow found him by happenstance by that point. I believe that both of these are due to the fact that the village has been having... trouble lately. I mean, Devo and Vorros took on a fully powered village, by themselves and won! That combined with the facts that the village roles in this game are much less powerful and that Melkor gets to choose his teammate gives the Elims a pretty decent chance.

I think that we can agree that Melkor isn't going to convert someone that's under the hot seat just because they want their teammate to last. Whether they choose someone who's neutral or Vil leaned by most people, is much harder to guess and is likely to be based off of playstyle. Also, getting a read on Melkor is going to be darn near impossible, because we aren't looking for a coordinated team, we're looking for a single person right now. Melkor's only goal right now is pure survival so we just have to find the person with "the most to live for".

This currently brings to my mind TUN, Devo, and JNV.

TUN because he posted about how he is going to post about something that is usually elim behavior from him but it doesn't mean anything this time. I really only slightly think he could be Melkor,

Devo, well he pretty much screams survival and having more that one shield wouldn't do anything for him since you have to activate it as an action and thus it would make more sense to smithy a bunch of shields and hand them out to many people. I however think that this is a little too out there, but then again, that seems to be Devo's elim strategy, so I wouldn't put it past him to do this. I would vote for him, but...

JNV, the rules analysis was kind of all over and more like a recommendation on how to play the different roles that one might have. This makes me slightly suspicious but what really draws my attention is that the post feels rushed. Like they wanted to get it out and make it seem like a big deal so that they wouldn't be considered for exeing. This one is more of gut feeling, so I'll probably end up moving my vote to Devo or TUN, but JNV's post is just a great way to hide in the chaos.

 

[Kasimir]

2 hours ago, Conquestor said:

@Kasimir Already voting for me, eh? I see how it is. Yet, I am not getting a bad vibe from you, so I'll leave it be. It's nice to see you back! I was sad when you left our Alcatraz game! Anyways, on to current discussion... 

If I am Village and if you are Village, this should make it my first Village game with you. Big if here.

Can't say I wanted to be back this soon but the urge to troll Fifth by playing a Valar was too strong.

2 hours ago, Conquestor said:

I have to agree that it is interesting that Melkor lost his first turn immunity it is even more interesting to me that he has only 1 conversion, which means that whoever Melkor is, they are going to want to use it very wisely. Honestly, I would spend at least 2 cycles smithing a helm or trinkets/killing people and then going for the convert, unless we somehow found him by happenstance by that point. I believe that both of these are due to the fact that the village has been having... trouble lately. I mean, Devo and Vorros took on a fully powered village, by themselves and won! That combined with the facts that the village roles in this game are much less powerful and that Melkor gets to choose his teammate gives the Elims a pretty decent chance.

Two points on this:

First, I didn't really want to say too much about this to wait for people, but I'm forgetful in my dotage so I'll say this anyway. I've GMed with Fifth before, and I am not terribly surprised by one conversion, which would make for a fairly lean team (hi Feruchemist game, where we considered a two man Elim team!), but a certain amount of 'it depends' on Village distro (we just don't know enough yet), the fact that Melkor can't be killed by tied votes, and the fact that every Feanor+Son gang member gets one kill with a Fell Sword (it's per player per Fell Sword) so there could be a number of one-off kills floating in the background. I'm not convinced this is noteworthy per se, except insofar as what it might say about the distro.

Second, I feel there's a lot of uncertainty about what Melkor will do. The Village had a huge internal squabble about this point in MR53 but if Melkor converts now, then the convert can put in the kill while Melkor smiths, or if Eru preserve us, he gets Feanor or a Smith, then they can trade off or something. Melkor is restricted by actions economy right now and the longer the game goes on, the more players will likely be able to prove their roles. I don't expect this to be too role-heavy a distro for that reason, but Melkor has extra incentive to be able to evade the dragnet early, e.g. by trading role/action claims.

2 hours ago, Conquestor said:

Also, getting a read on Melkor is going to be darn near impossible, because we aren't looking for a coordinated team, we're looking for a single person right now

Melkor isn't exe-proof, so Melkor will be just as subject to pressure as anyone else, fortunately or otherwise.

2 hours ago, Conquestor said:

Melkor's only goal right now is pure survival so we just have to find the person with "the most to live for".

Eh. Yes and no. Survival-happy players exist. Finwe may decide that his single sacred duty is to keep the Silmarils locked away. And I'm reluctant to draw that conclusion when there hasn't been much lethal pressure going around in this game just yet.

Very, very slight V lean on Devo, otherwise a string of NFCs to go around; I've not decided whether I'm overanchoring because I think we'll need another Valar to constrain Melkor of lack of sufficient evidence.

@Araris Valerian Yo. So, on a scale of one to ten, with one being Bilbo the morning before Gandalf kicked down his door and ten being Frodo at Mount Doom, exactly how in danger do you feel of another Kinslaying, given you are of the Teleri?  

[Archer]

7 hours ago, Matrim's Dice said:

And I agree with that. Another point is that I didn’t even read TUNs post as wanting to die at all, but I don’t know what to do with that. Nothing? :P.

Less wanting to die and more, very blatant about asking for mercy. Elims should be more subtle, ya? 

7 hours ago, Devotary of Spontaneity said:

No items block the exe, just jewels and better jewels^TM

Interesting. My v!Devo tunnel now thinks you're trying to position yourself as a good conversion target when in fact you're not. 

7 hours ago, Kasimir said:

I lean some variant of:

-Provide cover for Finwe, since this guy is confirmed Village (I think the only one? - TBF everyone except Melkor is confirmed Village right now, but the conversion point I suppose.)
-Maybe don't tell the whole world who you are making PMs with unless necessary, since this lets Melkor identify Finwe and kill Finwe right off the bat, and why make things so easy?
-Comms don't matter if people aren't going to do effective things with them, and thread should not be neglected

Anyone who plans on PMing everyone should announce that now. 

Also, conf villager who lets us PM is a fabulous conversion target. I think. My memory of the rules is shakey. 

3 hours ago, Conquestor said:

 

I think that we can agree that Melkor isn't going to convert someone that's under the hot seat just because they want their teammate to last. Whether they choose someone who's neutral or Vil leaned by most people, is much harder to guess and is likely to be based off of playstyle. Also, getting a read on Melkor is going to be darn near impossible, because we aren't looking for a coordinated team, we're looking for a single person right now. Melkor's only goal right now is pure survival so we just have to find the person with "the most to live for".

JNV, the rules analysis was kind of all over and more like a recommendation on how to play the different roles that one might have. 

Interesting side note though, the Elim is likely to convert if they themselves are on the hot seat, making near ties more appealing to us. Keeping the suspect pool broad is the way to go today. 

Conversely, that looked like how JNV usually does it. 

Still voting Dannnnnnnnnnex because playing under the radar is a good Elim strat. 

[Kasimir]

11 minutes ago, Archer said:

Anyone who plans on PMing everyone should announce that now. 

Why?

11 minutes ago, Archer said:

Also, conf villager who lets us PM is a fabulous conversion target. I think. My memory of the rules is shakey. 

Finwe is a conf villager because he can't be converted. He also can't make PMs, so people declaring who they are and aren't going to PM are playing Pin The Stab on the Finwe. 

The PM guy you are thinking about is the Messenger, who basically passively enables PMs by existence and also can spy on them (and can't repeatedly spy on the same targets.)

12 minutes ago, Archer said:

Interesting side note though, the Elim is likely to convert if they themselves are on the hot seat, making near ties more appealing to us. Keeping the suspect pool broad is the way to go today. 

Will Melkor? I do think Melkor is likely to C1 convert (cf. MR53) but Melkor doesn't die to ties. A tie with Melkor in it kills the other player but it's not something we can know about (since from our perspective, it looks the same as if there was a coinflip) and it would be fairly brutal if Melkor set up a tie specifically to watch us execute both halves (thirds?) of it on the suspicion he's in there. Agree about keeping suspect pool broad, think this should generally be true before further evidence anyway in any game.

[Archer]

15 minutes ago, Kasimir said:

Why?

Finwe is a conf villager because he can't be converted. He also can't make PMs, so people declaring who they are and aren't going to PM are playing Pin The Stab on the Finwe. 

The PM guy you are thinking about is the Messenger, who basically passively enables PMs by existence and also can spy on them (and can't repeatedly spy on the same targets.)

Will Melkor? I do think Melkor is likely to C1 convert (cf. MR53) but Melkor doesn't die to ties. A tie with Melkor in it kills the other player but it's not something we can know about (since from our perspective, it looks the same as if there was a coinflip) and it would be fairly brutal if Melkor set up a tie specifically to watch us execute both halves (thirds?) of it on the suspicion he's in there. Agree about keeping suspect pool broad, think this should generally be true before further evidence anyway in any game.

Mostly because I want to know who plans on doing that even if they only get around to making a couple of them and I'm not included in that batch. Mat announced it, who else is taking that risk and why? 

Finwe sounds like a cool dude! 

Hence why I said near tie. Worst case scenario for them is they miss their chance to convert and get exed C2, but if they can put it off, they better their ability to mess with our reads in the back half of the game. So my intention is to make the risk seem too worth the reward of putting it off. If they even have one vote and there's some unpredictable villagers on at EOD who might bring them into the lead/signals they'll pursue them tomorrow as a suspect, then I think they'll use their conversion. 

[Shining Silhouette]

4 hours ago, Conquestor said:

I have to agree that it is interesting that Melkor lost his first turn immunity it is even more interesting to me that he has only 1 conversion, which means that whoever Melkor is, they are going to want to use it very wisely. Honestly, I would spend at least 2 cycles smithing a helm or trinkets/killing people and then going for the convert, unless we somehow found him by happenstance by that point. 

I think that we can agree that Melkor isn't going to convert someone that's under the hot seat just because they want their teammate to last. Whether they choose someone who's neutral or Vil leaned by most people, is much harder to guess and is likely to be based off of playstyle. Also, getting a read on Melkor is going to be darn near impossible, because we aren't looking for a coordinated team, we're looking for a single person right now. Melkor's only goal right now is pure survival so we just have to find the person with "the most to live for".

I agree, I think it makes sense for Melkor to wait until general reads solidify before they pick their teammate. They don't gain much by corrupting someone early on (besides e/e thread interaction) unless they're lucky with their pick and get Feanor, a Smith, or another important role. I think spending early game crafting seems useful- smithing the two trinkets stands out to me because crafting them in the day gives them item turns for the next two cycles in addition to their role actions. They could continue crafting as long as they want until they decide on a teammate. 

As for dubious early game reads, sign me up!

I think TUN's post seems like it's looking for some form of attention. As Mat said, it could be read as either alignment.

Devo doesn't seem particularly suspicious to me- I read them more mischievous than suspect.

Dannex- has no comments at all? Hmm 

JNV's post seems earnest and genuinely questioning, though it seems just a little forced to me. This also could just be my lack of playing with them as Archer pointed out that's how they usually play it.

I'll vote later in the cycle after more people join in. 

[Mat]

9 hours ago, Kasimir said:

Nothing seems just about right at the moment. Cycle just started. Anything short of a smoking gun is likely to contain some amount of overlatching/overreading in the absence of any context or extra basis for reads at present. No need to rush.

I would say to simply not over-advertise it. If everyone agrees to make one-on-one PMs with everyone, then Finwe will be outed very fast. This may not be a problem if we want the Silmarils to be released but I'm reluctant to yield Finwe this early. PMs can also be spied on by a Messenger. We know there is at least one Messenger at the moment and the Messenger is likely Village, but it's worth keeping that in mind.

Yeah. Hence my not exploring it until we starting discussing  Which is a good thing, discussion is good. And I've noticed that overnight I think two similar TUN reads were given, by Conq and Shining.

That's essentially what I came to, yeah. Play it normal. There isn't a complete downside to Finwe dying, but I think if there's an argument not to purposefully out them it's that it wouldn't be very nice to just hand him over to Melkor so we could get our Silmarils :P.

...The Messenger is village, for sure, I think. At least right now. Unless Melkor can have another role? Or do you just mean, for the game, in general, since conversions :P.

6 hours ago, Conquestor said:

Devo, well he pretty much screams survival and having more that one shield wouldn't do anything for him since you have to activate it as an action and thus it would make more sense to smithy a bunch of shields and hand them out to many people. I however think that this is a little too out there, but then again, that seems to be Devo's elim strategy, so I wouldn't put it past him to do this. I would vote for him, but...

JNV, the rules analysis was kind of all over and more like a recommendation on how to play the different roles that one might have. This makes me slightly suspicious but what really draws my attention is that the post feels rushed. Like they wanted to get it out and make it seem like a big deal so that they wouldn't be considered for exeing. This one is more of gut feeling, so I'll probably end up moving my vote to Devo or TUN, but JNV's post is just a great way to hide in the chaos.

Devo's still a she :P.

Worth noting though, that's a typical JNV starting post, grammar and all () and I actually read it village most of the time, including the time when it wasn't. What can I say, I'm a sucker for effort clearing. Hopefully not as much anymore; I did correctly identify e!Kas that one time. But I wouldn't vote them solely because of that.

2 hours ago, Archer said:

Less wanting to die and more, very blatant about asking for mercy. Elims should be more subtle, ya? 

Anyone who plans on PMing everyone should announce that now. 

Fair enough, I suppose.

Disagree here (you use me as an example of this later, which is funny-- just because I said I would do it doesn't mean I will, especially since I implied I wasn't gonna PM anyone anyway. Could be Finwe!me covering for myself. Of course, Finwe!me wants Melkor to waste a turn trying to convert me, and Finwe!me would honestly just be sad that he can't be converted :P. So read that how you want). But my instinct is to protect the conf village role as long as possible.

40 minutes ago, Shining Silhouette said:

I agree, I think it makes sense for Melkor to wait until general reads solidify before they pick their teammate. They don't gain much by corrupting someone early on (besides e/e thread interaction) unless they're lucky with their pick and get Feanor, a Smith, or another important role. I think spending early game crafting seems useful- smithing the two trinkets stands out to me because crafting them in the day gives them item turns for the next two cycles in addition to their role actions. They could continue crafting as long as they want until they decide on a teammate. 

So... why are we strategizing for Melkor, that seems generally unhelpful for the village xD I get knowing what they're gonna do is helpful to us, but thinking we know and being wrong is pretty much the worst so I'd rather stay off the topic and let them try to figure it out :P.

I'll jump on the EarlyAndDubiousReads train.

Dannnex I don't have a problem with at the moment, despite his vote. Idk. I guess if he still has no thoughts at endgame that's a problem but it's early so I'll give him a pass for now. Though thinking twelve hours in is 'early' is dangerous when there's 24 hour cycles >>

TUN I probably wouldn't vote today even if I do lean more elim on his first post for the same reason as Dannnex; if he's said effectively nothing else by then he's a more viable target.

My gut is leaning village on Kas and Archer and JNV but I'm telling it politely to stop because auto village reading the people I auto village read never is helpful to anyone. I'll sort it out.

Devo and Conq are null to me, I'm wary of snapreading the latter after my tunnel last game. I like Shining's post but it's nothing I don't think he could fake.

Bookworm

Edit: Just realized that Kas' tag of @Araris Valerian was for someone who's actually playing. You around?  I think I saw you recently browsing.

Edited September 5, 2022 by Matrim's Dice

[Fifth Scholar]

9 hours ago, JNV said:

Smith honestly do what you want shield only gives 40% coverage @Fifth Scholar is that percent cummulative and if so how  the other stuff is kinda ish like helm gives one time sword protection and theft protection but if you have the helm and one other tiem youve got the limit already like how valuable is keeping and using that vs having something else and the trinkets are cool but making them is a gamble

Dunno what you mean by cumulative, but each 40% chance of protection against kills is independent.

Cannot quote your other questions, but to answer them in bullets:

- As Kas said, sword limits are once per game per player per sword. So if Wilson had two Fell Swords, she could kill twice, and if she was then stabbed five times in the back and the swords given to Wyrm, he could also kill twice.

- Messenger PM spying only works on messages sent for the given cycle. 

- Jewels negate all votes a player has, including bonuses from Silmarils.

- The Gemstone targets another player, and all actions that would be performed against that player happen to you instead. It does not mess up your target’s actions (unless it’s a Smith self-targeting or something similar). 

[Araris Valerian]

4 hours ago, Kasimir said:

@Araris Valerian Yo. So, on a scale of one to ten, with one being Bilbo the morning before Gandalf kicked down his door and ten being Frodo at Mount Doom, exactly how in danger do you feel of another Kinslaying, given you are of the Teleri?  

I feel like Gandalf after Frodo chose to go through Moria . And I suppose if there is going to be a Kinslaying, I should take part, right? I'd be happy voting on @The Unknown Novel right now, since it seems like a way to opt out of discussion until doing rules analysis, which doesn't really help us itself. So yeah, Aegnor.

Findor's memory of the Kinslaying, the first time Elves had slain each other, was as sharp as the salty tang of the ocean. His arrows had pieced many of the Noldor, and his brothers had fallen to their blades. But these recollections, terrible as they were, did not hold him back from the current conflict. Just as Melkor sought to create a great evil by granting a few small boons in the present, so too he would dirty his hands now to forestall the greater calamity. For surely if Melkor's desires were fulfilled, a new darkness, more vast than any remembered deaths, would fall upon the world.

[Shining Silhouette]

1 hour ago, Matrim's Dice said:

So... why are we strategizing for Melkor, that seems generally unhelpful for the village xD I get knowing what they're gonna do is helpful to us, but thinking we know and being wrong is pretty much the worst so I'd rather stay off the topic and let them try to figure it out :P.

You're right, I kind of tunnel visioned there. There are a number of viable Melkor strategies, so I agree, we should try to stay open minded.

I'm parking my vote on JNV for now. 

[The Unknown Ajah]

12 hours ago, Kasimir said:

So full disclaimer:

I signed up as Tulkas to make Fifth's life difficult but it is also making my life difficult because I don't know how to RP Tulkas beyond the description of Tulkas as the party animal and brawler of the Valar RIP me. And RIP Fifth I guess.

Melkor losing C1 exe immunity makes things a bit more straightforward, since in the world with immune!Melkor, we'd have to work out if a lynch survivor was a Sailor or Melkor. We know the game starts with just E!Melkor, so basically any provable role is provably not Melkor (but remember, potentially Evil past C1!) Actions economy limits means we should be tracking kills because if Melkor is killing, he's not converting, which also helps narrow down the suspect pools. This alongside Cunning and Crafty: Crafty matters because if Melkor crafts, it looks like he can't kill. That may not be so straightforward to track but I think there are a few small possibilities there. Cunning is a reminder that if we think someone is Melkor, we can't let the exe be tied. If the exe is tied, Melkor won't die, someone else will die. 

Why, when there's an item limit?  

We could only be so lucky if Melkor *clenches fists in Tulkathian wrath* were to do something like that...

Thoughts?

I am gonna go re-read the Silmarillion to figure out how to be Tulkas >>

As a person who is currently reading the Silmarillion, punch people, don't trust Melkor, punch some more people, and party.

12 hours ago, Matrim's Dice said:

I think Archer put a lot of stock into him ‘wanting to die’, but more just that it feels like TUN could be preemptively pointing it out in the hopes of avoiding it altogether.

Which I guess can be read as either alignment :P. But either way not something that’s worth more than a passing comment at the moment.

I'm going to be saying this a lot, but that was a joke, pointed at you since you said that was my Elim tell last time I did it, (I think you got me exed too) and then I flipped vil.

11 hours ago, Kasimir said:

I say we take him on now.

Eonwe, me, and Túrin Turambar. 

Melkor can be slain :eyes:

Nevermind that Túrin hasn't even been born yet

I don't know enough about Aegnor, but he can step in Things place I guess.

8 hours ago, Conquestor said:

RP

  Reveal hidden contents

Sethryn sat in the light of Telperion and soaked in its magnificent radiance. He needed something to help clear his mind after everything that's happened. Melkor, good? Melkor released? It seemed almost impossible after all the horror that it took to stop his evil in the first place. Sethryn began to shudder as memories of his father and mother arose from the deep corners of his mind. He wished to never remember those tragic events.

He steeled his mind and refocused on his own breathing and the light. Yet, he could not shake his mind of Melkor. The Destroyer, the Corruptor, the True Darkness, The Great Enemy, and many more names has he. His imprisonment would not... No, could not change a being such as Melkor. His imprisonment would only serve to ripen his hatred and allow him to plan.

There is no way to be sure that they could lock him away again. He is a powerful adversary and yet, he was defeated before and so there is a chance to be able to do it again. The best chance would be to do so before he could gain more power, a time like now. If I could find proof of Melkor's blackened heart, then perhaps Manwe would sentence him to prison again. Melkor's corruption must be pulled up from the roots and it must be done now.

With this thought, Sethryn stood up and gazed into Telperion's light, wondering if this would be the last time he saw it. That thought again made buried memories float to the surface, but Sethryn shoved them down again. He could confront those memories when he finished dealing with Melkor, but until then, he can't be distracted because Melkor is no common foe and needs a fully focused mind to be caught. Sethryn then started walking towards Tirion. He had a gut feeling that he would find Melkor's plots there.

@Kasimir Already voting for me, eh? I see how it is. Yet, I am not getting a bad vibe from you, so I'll leave it be. It's nice to see you back! I was sad when you left our Alcatraz game! Anyways, on to current discussion... 

I have to agree that it is interesting that Melkor lost his first turn immunity it is even more interesting to me that he has only 1 conversion, which means that whoever Melkor is, they are going to want to use it very wisely. Honestly, I would spend at least 2 cycles smithing a helm or trinkets/killing people and then going for the convert, unless we somehow found him by happenstance by that point. I believe that both of these are due to the fact that the village has been having... trouble lately. I mean, Devo and Vorros took on a fully powered village, by themselves and won! That combined with the facts that the village roles in this game are much less powerful and that Melkor gets to choose his teammate gives the Elims a pretty decent chance.

I think that we can agree that Melkor isn't going to convert someone that's under the hot seat just because they want their teammate to last. Whether they choose someone who's neutral or Vil leaned by most people, is much harder to guess and is likely to be based off of playstyle. Also, getting a read on Melkor is going to be darn near impossible, because we aren't looking for a coordinated team, we're looking for a single person right now. Melkor's only goal right now is pure survival so we just have to find the person with "the most to live for".

This currently brings to my mind TUN, Devo, and JNV.

TUN because he posted about how he is going to post about something that is usually elim behavior from him but it doesn't mean anything this time. I really only slightly think he could be Melkor,

Devo, well he pretty much screams survival and having more that one shield wouldn't do anything for him since you have to activate it as an action and thus it would make more sense to smithy a bunch of shields and hand them out to many people. I however think that this is a little too out there, but then again, that seems to be Devo's elim strategy, so I wouldn't put it past him to do this. I would vote for him, but...

JNV, the rules analysis was kind of all over and more like a recommendation on how to play the different roles that one might have. This makes me slightly suspicious but what really draws my attention is that the post feels rushed. Like they wanted to get it out and make it seem like a big deal so that they wouldn't be considered for exeing. This one is more of gut feeling, so I'll probably end up moving my vote to Devo or TUN, but JNV's post is just a great way to hide in the chaos.

 

As I said above, it was a joke because that has always been NAI for me (despite what some people may think, Mat).

2 hours ago, Araris Valerian said:

I feel like Gandalf after Frodo chose to go through Moria . And I suppose if there is going to be a Kinslaying, I should take part, right? I'd be happy voting on @The Unknown Novel right now, since it seems like a way to opt out of discussion until doing rules analysis, which doesn't really help us itself. So yeah, Aegnor.

Findor's memory of the Kinslaying, the first time Elves had slain each other, was as sharp as the salty tang of the ocean. His arrows had pieced many of the Noldor, and his brothers had fallen to their blades. But these recollections, terrible as they were, did not hold him back from the current conflict. Just as Melkor sought to create a great evil by granting a few small boons in the present, so too he would dirty his hands now to forestall the greater calamity. For surely if Melkor's desires were fulfilled, a new darkness, more vast than any remembered deaths, would fall upon the world.

I'd be in the discussion more if I could, but unlike Kas I have to sleep now and again.

I still plan on doing that rules analysis, but I have other things I'm going to be doing for a little while, but I think I will still get it done before rollover.

[Fifth Scholar]

Seven and a half hours left! Don’t forget votes and actions!

[Mat]

34 minutes ago, The Unknown Novel said:

I'm going to be saying this a lot, but that was a joke, pointed at you since you said that was my Elim tell last time I did it, (I think you got me exed too) and then I flipped vil.

As I said above, it was a joke because that has always been NAI for me (despite what some people may think, Mat).

It's not the rules analysis post by itself at this point, it'd be that you blatantly pointed it out and then never did it :P. I think though that doing that is more NAI than a lot of people, including me on occasion, think, since you're right that you usually get exed for doing stuff like that as either alignment. Edit: So I think I lean elim on Araris now, I guess?

And I mean. I said that one time :P.

7.5 hours left is a reality check lol

da[n=?]ex, to follow Fifth's format in the player list.

Edited September 5, 2022 by Matrim's Dice

[The Wandering Wizard]

31 minutes ago, Matrim's Dice said:

It's not the rules analysis post by itself at this point, it'd be that you blatantly pointed it out and then never did it :P. I think though that doing that is more NAI than a lot of people, including me on occasion, think, since you're right that you usually get exed for doing stuff like that as either alignment. Edit: So I think I lean elim on Araris now, I guess?

And I mean. I said that one time :P.

7.5 hours left is a reality check lol

da[n=?]ex, to follow Fifth's format in the player list.

I think I'll follow you on da[n=?]ex.

I might be back in a bit, but I am most comfortable with exing danex out of everyone, so far. I'll be back in a few hours, probably.

[Mat]

Just now, The Wandering Wizard said:

I might be back in a bit, but I am most comfortable with exing danex out of everyone, so far. I'll be back in a few hours, probably.

Do you have a reason, or I guess if it is truly sheeping, can you explain it in your own words? Any thoughts on other players?

[Devotary of Spontaneity]

10 hours ago, Conquestor said:

That combined with the facts that the village roles in this game are much less powerful and that Melkor gets to choose his teammate gives the Elims a pretty decent chance.

Village roles may not be powerful, but many are provable. Feanor, Galadriel, Smith, Sailor, Orator, Messenger can all prove they started as villagers to at least one person. Nobles sort of but their ability can be replicated by jewels and tracking where the jewel ended up might not work since the dead player could have had one.

5 hours ago, Archer said:

Hence why I said near tie. Worst case scenario for them is they miss their chance to convert and get exed C2, but if they can put it off, they better their ability to mess with our reads in the back half of the game. So my intention is to make the risk seem too worth the reward of putting it off. If they even have one vote and there's some unpredictable villagers on at EOD who might bring them into the lead/signals they'll pursue them tomorrow as a suspect, then I think they'll use their conversion. 

Conversion goes before the exe so the only way he doesn't get a convert is if he misses the fact that he's about to die (vote manipulation/not being around for rollover) or if he hits Finwe/Fingolfin target the cycle he dies. Trying to force a conversion by putting him at risk late into the cycle is worth pursuing.

[SymphonianBookworm]

I... don’t really know how to know when someone is suspicious or not, so I’ll just vote for da[n=?]ex. 

[Mat]

Every time someone votes da[n=?]ex with no reasoning and no other reads it makes me think they're copy and pasting a previous vote without having actually read anything.

dannnnnex

I guess the bandwagon nature of this isn't really a point in dannex's favor, since when that's normally the case it's because evil teammates are less likely and that obviously isn't in play here. But I think I dislike the recent dannex votes more than dannex himself.

Edited September 5, 2022 by Matrim's Dice

[Archer]

1 minute ago, Matrim's Dice said:

Every time someone votes da[n=?]ex with no reasoning and no other reads it makes me think they're copy and pasting a previous vote without having actually read anything.

dannnnnex

Unfortunately, at least one of them is a villager 

27 minutes ago, Devotary of Spontaneity said:

Village roles may not be powerful, but many are provable. Feanor, Galadriel, Smith, Sailor, Orator, Messenger can all prove they started as villagers to at least one person. Nobles sort of but their ability can be replicated by jewels and tracking where the jewel ended up might not work since the dead player could have had one.

Conversion goes before the exe so the only way he doesn't get a convert is if he misses the fact that he's about to die (vote manipulation/not being around for rollover) or if he hits Finwe/Fingolfin target the cycle he dies. Trying to force a conversion by putting him at risk late into the cycle is worth pursuing.

I like the strategy of hunting down the person who started as Malkor before hitting the potential conversion targets. Even with the possibility of conversion in play later, it makes sense to clear anyone who can have started as a villager. 

I'd like to shift my vote to Araris, but I can't remember why

[Mat]

Just now, Archer said:

Unfortunately, at least one of them is a villager 

Yeah :P. I added an edit after my unvote, if you didn't see that. Not exactly touching on that but something similar.

Just now, Archer said:

I like the strategy of hunting down the person who started as Malkor before hitting the potential conversion targets. Even with the possibility of conversion in play later, it makes sense to clear anyone who can have started as a villager. 

I don't know if role claiming is a good idea if we think Melkor hasn't converted yet, since then they can pick and choose from the claims even if they are identified. I can't imagine there isn't a way for Melkor to fake claim, though, I don't think Fifth would have designed a game where we can mass roleclaim D1 and immediately catch Melkor. But I haven't really thought about it. Your main point isn't wrong though.

3 minutes ago, Archer said:

I'd like to shift my vote to Araris, but I can't remember why

If it was because of his easy TUN vote and his otherwise missing-in-action nature, then we'd be in agreement.

Araris

[danex]

6 hours ago, Archer said:

Still voting Dannnnnnnnnnex because playing under the radar is a good Elim strat. 

wdym i'm so incredibly above the radar

flying above it in a massive hot air balloon that says "not an elim" on the side

11 minutes ago, Matrim's Dice said:

Every time someone votes da[n=?]ex with no reasoning and no other reads it makes me think they're copy and pasting a previous vote without having actually read anything.

dannnnnex

I guess the bandwagon nature of this isn't really a point in dannex's favor, since when that's normally the case it's because evil teammates are less likely and that obviously isn't in play here. But I think I dislike the recent dannex votes more than dannex himself.

I also dislike them yes Matrim's Dice
The Wandering Wizard's post feels very opportune
SymphonianBookworm's post feels even more so, but I think an Elim would've recognized that and then not voted on me without more reasoning. 

I'm currently sus of TWW, JNV, a little bit sus of Symphonian, and something about Kas just isn't vibing with me idk.

[The Wandering Wizard]

1 hour ago, Matrim's Dice said:

Do you have a reason, or I guess if it is truly sheeping, can you explain it in your own words? Any thoughts on other players?

I mostly just read him as the only elim lean I had at the time. I lean village on you, archer, and kas. Neutral on Devo. Slight elim on Dannnnnnex and about equal elim on bookwyrm. 

33 minutes ago, dannnnnnex said:

The Wandering Wizard's post feels very opportune

It's mostly me just not knowing how to join the discussion and being bad at conversation in general. 

I'll keep my vote for now, thought I may remove it. We'll see.