Quick Fix Game 62: He Who Arises In Might

[SymphonianBookworm]

The suspense… I’m dying…

[Fifth Scholar]

"It is told that for a time Melkor was not seen again in Valinor, nor was any rumour heard of him, until suddenly he came to Formenos, and spoke with Fëanor before his doors. Friendship he feigned with cunning argument, urging him to his former thought of flight from the trammels of the Valar; and he said: ‘Behold the truth of all that I have spoken, and how thou art banished unjustly. But if the heart of Fëanor is yet free and bold as were his words in Tirion, then I will aid him, and bring him far from this narrow land. For am I not Vala also? Yea, and more than those who sit in pride in Valimar; and I have ever been a friend to the Noldor, most skilled and most valiant of the people of Arda.’

Now Fëanor’s heart was still bitter at his humiliation before Mandos, and he looked at Melkor in silence, pondering if indeed he might yet trust him so far as to aid him in his flight. And Melkor, seeing that Fëanor wavered, and knowing that the Silmarils held his heart in thrall, said at the last: ‘Here is a strong place, and well guarded; but think not that the Silmarils will lie safe in any treasury within the realm of the Valar!’

But his cunning overreached his aim; his words touched too deep, and awoke a fire more fierce than he designed; and Fëanor looked upon Melkor with eyes that burned through his fair semblance and pierced the cloaks of his mind, perceiving there his fierce lust for the Silmarils. Then hate overcame Fëanor’s fear, and he cursed Melkor and bade him be gone, saying: ‘Get thee gone from my gate, thou jail-crow of Mandos!’ And he shut the doors of his house in the face of the mightiest of all the dwellers in Eä.

Then Melkor departed in shame, for he was himself in peril, and he saw not his time yet for revenge; but his heart was black with anger. And Finwë was filled with great fear, and in haste he sent messengers to Manwë in Valmar." - J.R.R. Tolkien, The Silmarillion

---

Matrim's Dice was driven away! He was Melkor, He Who Arises in Might!

Mat (5)

TUN (1)

Devo (1)

JNV was killed by the Corrupted! He was Curufin the Crafty (Faithful Son of Feanor Smith). 

Cycle Five has begun! It will end in 22.5 hours' time on Friday 9 September at 10:00 PM EDT. Get in your votes and actions!

The Queen is dead; God save the King.

PMs are CLOSED.

There is an exe today.

Good luck!

Player List:

1. The Unknown Novel as Aegnor, son of Finarfin

2. Araris Valerian as Findor, star-watcher and boat-builder Faithful Messenger

3. Matrim's Dice as TBD Melkor

4. Shining Silhouette as Sircyn, son of Tellyn

5. JNV as Menelir of the Sea and Sky, a concerned wanderer Son of Feanor Smith

6. Conquestor as Sethryn, son of the Rememberer Son of Feanor Noble

7. The Wandering Wizard as TBD Galadriel

8. da[n=??]ex as TBD Messenger

9. Devotary of Spontaneity as Nienna, a Vala committed to criminal justice reform

10. SymphonianBookworm as TBD

11. Archer as Tarell the Toothsayer Son of Feanor Orator

12. Kasimir as Tulkas the Valiant

Edited December 7, 2022 by Elandera

[Devotary of Spontaneity]

So 2* chances (modified by odds of blocking kills, last elim being able to kill people/manipulate votes), 3* options. Odd that nobody's killing Kas but no way real Finwe wouldn't have claimed by now and unless everyone else PM'd Kas him guessing it wasn't present is risky. TUN maybe not since Mat seemed willing to kill him. Would have expected more kills from elim Symph. Has claimed C1 Fell Sword self, C2 shield Danex, C3 Fell Sword to Mat while kill TUN. So Shining maybe? Definitely defended Mat. But did so when it was hopeless so not sure.  Let's start Shining see what happens.

[Kasimir]

Thank Eru.

I was beginning to doubt my sanity.

Ni su'cuyi, gar kyr'adyc, ni partayli, gar darasuum, JNV.

Ni su'cuyi, gar kyr'adyc, ni partayli, gar darasuum, Araris.

I am not fully set on this, but here are initial thoughts. I need to go re-read subsequently before making a final decision. Recommend everyone else do so too.

-I still lean towards Symph being IKYK lynch bait. I don't fully see Symph as a convert. But then again, maybe it really is that simple. The fact Mat supposedly had a PM with Symph makes some sense in terms of V!Symph being alive because he had pocketed Symph - but then here's the thing. Why leave Feanor alive now that he was going to die anyway?

- @SymphonianBookworm, care to confirm you RBed Devo? Did you give a Fell Sword to anyone last cycle? (Actually, mind reconfirming for us what you did with your item and role actions each cycle, please?  Just for revision purposes?)

-I received a Shield. And someone tried to Knife me. Thought you said you didn't intend to use your knife? @The Unknown Novel

-Shining's defense of Mat is almost too on the nose. Part of me believes that it's not where Mat's teammate would hide, because they would know they would look really bad in light of Mat's flip, while part of me believes that yes, this is exactly where Mat's teammate would hide in a Refuge in Audacity tactic.

-Devo has a history of bussing. Devo is first voter on Mat last cycle, backed by TUN. I give more credence to TUN's seconding the vote, as TUN could easily abstain. But Devo was sort of forced to vote Mat because Devo had already gone down last cycle as backing Mat over TUN, and what's more, I am very much aware E!Devo does this. But IDK. I think E!Devo could easily wait until later in the cycle to push. She didn't. Village points for that.

-Suppose that TUN didn't use his knife on me. I think it'd be strange at least for TUN to be Evil, knife me, and not kill me because he had to know I would call him out the next day. As I'm doing right now. Mat could be trying to distance from TUN but IDK. I just don't read C2 TUN as Evil. [Edit: I mean C3 and C4.]

Ok. So V!TUN and V!Devo for me. Down to Symph and Shining.

So: likelihood:

Melkor converts C1, because there was a C2 and C3 kill and the game hasn't ended.

Symph claims to have made a Fell Sword and kept it C1. Devo has no actions.

Melkor could have killed C2. But Devo claimed vanilla Son of Feanor (I suppose she could be a Smith? IDK, is that even likely?) and Dannex flipped V so we know he truthfully roleblocked Devo C2. Which means that either we have a theory about Helmed or Shielded Devo C2, or Devo didn't put in the kill. 

The reason I'm walking us through the possibilities right now is that I was Knifed. We can either theorise that E!TUN did it, or we have to theorise that there is at least one cycle in which Melkor spent an action on making a Trinket. 

I am currently going to go with Shining. I think Symph is an odd conversion choice, in that Symph would be guaranteed to attract attention no matter what, and JNV's death is obviously to force us into a final few without someone who can be soft-confirmed via actions economy. I consider myself moderately committed to V!TUN and V!Devo at this point in time.

@SymphonianBookworm, just to cover some bets, would you object to this sort of arrangement: make a Fell Sword for Devo or TUN, whichever of the two you trust most. @The Unknown Novel, @Devotary of Spontaneity, make sure to Heir someone you trust. This way, no matter what, one living player should get the Fell Sword due to OoA. This way, we can be absolutely sure that either there will be a missing kill, or we know that Symph isn't killing.

FWIW, I suspect I was knifed for the Jewel. And that the Jewel matters in light of Shining having a Noble role.

But okay. So C2 and C3, at least one cycle, Melkor likely made Trinkets, specifically a knife. I suspect he made it C3, and used it C4 because of the knowledge I had a Jewel.

Edited to add:

I lied, let's do a basic look at the votes:

Cycle One:

Quote

Wiz (2): Danex, Conq
Danex (2): Wiz, Archer
Shining (1): JNV
Kas (1): Shining
Araris (1): Mat
TUN (1): Araris
Conq (1): Kas

IMO nothing much else to work out of that.

Cycle Two:

Quote

Araris (3): Conq, Danex, Mat
Mat (2): Archer, Araris
Devo (2): Shining, Kas
TUN (1): Symph

This is rather interesting. We know Mat later makes a Devo push, and Shining still has one here. Given the potential endangerment of Mat, Shining's vote placement looks worse than Symph - Symph couldn't save Mat, but being on a two-vote train (Devo) lets Shining position/generate a potential tie, which would in effect keep Mat safe.

Symph being on a side-train looks a bit better to me because Symph doesn't actually care about the cycle results despite Mat being slightly endangered (if only by a third vote.) But 

It's worth doing vote progression analysis here:

Everything is 1-1 tied until:

Quote

Araris (3): Mat, Danex, Conq
TUN (1): Symph
Mat (1): Araris,
Devo (2): Kas, Shining

Danex and Conq simultaneously switch to Araris. To be fair to Shining, Mat was not in danger. But Shining doubles up on Devo, voting with me.

This vote then remains stable despite Archer hopping around a bit. I do think Symph's vote on TUN is a more dgaf vote, and could potentially be read as Elim dgaf. But I think the stability is rather telling in light of how fluid Shining's votes were in C1.

Cycle Three:

Quote

TUN (3): Devo, Kas, Danex
Danex (2): Archer, Symph
Devo (2): Shining, Mat

Symph and Mat splitting here looks more sensible. But I don't overly fixate on this because I genuinely think Feanor is a risky conversion, an easy patsy (though: Fell Sword Devo could be a threat so why not kill Feanor or me?) Killing me might not have been an option because of the Silmarils and the fact that JNV and Symph could action-clear themselves though, IDK.

Mat came under threat this cycle so I want to look more closely at it.

Archer opens the voting with a vote on Danex:

Quote

Danex (1): Archer
Mat (2): Kas, Devo

And Kas joins with a vote on Mat because what is this cc lynch on Araris. Devo backs it up very quickly with a vote on Mat. Note: This is either A+ distancing or Devo continuously pressuring and putting Mat under threat despite not having to engineer such suspicions. I am no longer seriously willing to entertain E!Devo worlds.

Dannex then votes TUN:

Quote

Danex (2): Archer, Mat
Mat (2): Kas, Devo
TUN (1): Dannex

Mat eventually self-preses on Danex, claiming it's too quiet. Symph has commented at this juncture but not voted - compatible with an E!Symph world because self-pres is better for them. They don't need to connect Mat and Symph this way. But IDK about the coherence of that world because Symph would later go on to give Mat a Fell Sword anyway and if you're gonna connect like that and claim PM manipulation, might as well go full hog.

FYI: No Fell Sword reports makes me also lean V!Symph. I think that Mat could easily remind Symph to use the Fell Sword more aggressively than Symph seems to be doing and the fact that Symph's concern at that point in time is also largely focused on proving they're Feanor strikes me as a more Villager idiosyncracy than Evil.

Shining, meanwhile, opens a new train on Devo. That feels a bit more like vote dilution, and I think it's especially telling it's on Devo and for kind of the same reasons as C2 - not much engagement with previous content despite claiming to do so earlier.

Quote

Danex (2): Archer, Mat
Mat (2): Kas, Devo
TUN (1): Dannex
Devo (1): Shining

I then shift to Archer, and Mat takes the chance to double up on Devo.

Quote

Danex (1): Archer
Mat (1): Devo
TUN (1): Dannex
Devo (2): Shining, Mat
Archer (1): Kas

More evidence for V!Devo, in my book. This is an hour and twenty minutes to rollover. Mat doesn't care about endangering Devo. They are not teamed.

Now Symph cares, and now Symph votes Danex, making it a tie. 

Quote

Danex (2): Archer, Symph
Mat (1): Devo
TUN (1): Dannex
Devo (2): Shining, Mat
Archer (1): Kas

This reads like a new player move to me. I'm okay with this, it happens  

I go onto TUN because I don't like the Danex or Devo trains and don't want Danex to die, and TUN is in my pool at this point. Devo joins me.

Quote

Danex (2): Archer, Symph
TUN (3): Dannex, Kas, Devo
Devo (2): Shining, Mat

Mat asks about switching. If I'd said yes, he'd probably have had to do it. I think this is good reason for V!TUN: there's no point in leaving his teammate's fate in my hands if he didn't have to. I tell him to use his best judgement. He stays put. Suggestion IMO is that he doesn't want to get his hands dirty for the TUN flip and realises it'll damn Devo.

V!Devo, V!TUN.

Cycle Four:

Quote

Mat (5): TUN, Devo, Kas, Symph, JNV
TUN (1): Shining
Devo (1): Mat

The core of the problem. Is Symph joining the train late a teammate who basically was told to go distance properly? Or is Shining's TUN vote a Refuge in Audacity tactic? Shining's low final vote diversity definitely doesn't look good to me, TUN aside.

tldr; I am currently hard committed to V!Devo and V!TUN. I think the voting evidence is clear: Mat is willing to endanger TUN. Mat doesn't care about Devo's welfare. Devo continuously pressures Mat when she doesn't have to, when from the very start, she could have generated different suspicions. TUN and Devo are early and consistent on the Mat Trains C3, C4. TUN's reaction C3, C4, is very Village.

Between Symph and Shining, I lean E!Shining. Low vote diversity, poor cycle engagement (as opposed to player idiosyncracy in Symph's case) make me believe in E!Shining. Symph could have used the Fell Sword more aggressively against Village interests. The fact we haven't heard anything of that sort and Symph sat on the kill for so long makes me think not. As a player so aggressively new, Symph would also not be as tempting a conversion target for a two Elim team, due to welfare concerns. 

In addition, we're currently 4/1. In terms of risk, I think it is pragmatically better to go with Shining than Symph - if Symph consents to the plan. If not, I get why, but also, things become a bit more problematic. If Symph is Evil, then lynching Shining brings us to a 2/1, and this should be obvious based on whether a Fell Sword does or doesn't appear. Not the best case, but not unwinnable. 

But I also don't really feel right about Shining and I am currently rather convinced that the Elim team was playing to try to get a paranoia lynch of Symph to happen.

Thoughts? @The Unknown Novel @Devotary of Spontaneity @SymphonianBookworm @Shining Silhouette

Shining. I think that's where I am at.

Edited to add 2:

Additional thought - I take Symph's stabbing of TUN to be somewhat Village actually. Here's why: E!Symph stabs Devo, claims Mat/someone else was convincing. There were two votes on Devo C3, this is doable. Done. Symph does not waste time stabbing a Thug because quite frankly, Village lynching a Thug is a self-pwn on the Village's part. Symph stabs someone else like Devo or JNV, and Melkor puts in a kill on Archer. TUN survives to more Village consternation the next day.

Thugs don't matter to Elims - as long as they know who the Thug (i.e. player with an extra life) is, they can just work around the player.

Edited September 9, 2022 by Kasimir

[The Unknown Ajah]

1 hour ago, Kasimir said:

I received a Shield. And someone tried to Knife me. Thought you said you didn't intend to use your knife? @The Unknown Novel

I did say that and indeed didn't cycle one or two, but cycle three (because I wasn't certain about him and didn't want him getting the Fell sword) and four (duh) I attempted to knife Mat but failed both times. So what I'm saying is I didn't knife you.

[Kasimir]

1 hour ago, The Unknown Novel said:

I did say that and indeed didn't cycle one or two, but cycle three (because I wasn't certain about him and didn't want him getting the Fell sword) and four (duh) I attempted to knife Mat but failed both times. So what I'm saying is I didn't knife you.

No worries, just checking but I am fairly convinced you are Village at this point. If Shining's Evil, we'll need a consolidated Village vote - less if Symph is Evil. The Noble problem.

Edited to add:

@The Unknown Novel - Interesting that you failed. Suggests that he made a Helm or was Shielded, and he can't make Shields.

Relevantly, Shining claimed starting with a Shield.

Edited to add 2:

Ok, let's work with this - pretty clear evidence he had a Helm since he can't purely be Shielded twice in a row. But we also know he had a Knife, since I got Knifed. Which means we have two actions here: Made Helm, Made Two Trinkets. 

Personal theory: I got Knifed so he could keep one Trinket and the Helm. @TUN, suggest you Knife whichever of the two you most suspect (my bet's on Shining though), as my concern is they may have a Jewel, which could make the vote manip closer than we'd like.

C1 - Mat converts <Shining, Symph>
C2 - Mat makes a Helm. (Best guess; your Knife failed C3, so.)
C3 - Mat makes two Trinkets.
C4 - Mat has a full inventory and so uses the Knife on me in order to remove the Jewel (dangerous vote manip) and to reduce his inventory to two items Helm, OtherTrinket. He might have made the kill, or just made items to Heir and give his teammate as good a chance as possible.

We know now that Mat is Melkor so it is uncontroversial that Symph made a Fell Sword C1.

The fact that Symph made a Fell Sword C2 [Edited to add: This should be Shield, sorry - Danex confirmed this so we know that Symph cannot have killed.] suggests that in an E!Symph-Melkor world, Melkor had to make the kill. So where does the Helm come from? This team isn't consistent. With actions economy and Mat crafting, strongly suspect Shining is the only teammate that makes sense here.

Thanks TUN, that info is pretty helpful  

Edited to add 3: 

2 hours ago, Devotary of Spontaneity said:

Odd that nobody's killing Kas but no way real Finwe wouldn't have claimed by now and unless everyone else PM'd Kas him guessing it wasn't present is risky.

I'm finding that odd too. My current theory is that since Mat was posing as a Son of Feanor and everyone and their uncle was a Son of Feanor, the risk that someone would get a Silmaril on my death and find out that he was lying about it and lynching him was too high. Then subsequently, it became more important to take out a player who could be action cleared (JNV). Presuming that if we can't get enough of a vote margin to lynch Shining today (everyone has to vote - because Shining is a Noble, if Shining also has a Jewel, then anything short of four votes will lead to a tie, which could be bad for us), I'm the obvious kill target because Silmarils could present a vote multiplier.

Or maybe not - I guess they could also reason that it's more important to keep the Silmarils locked in case the vote margin becomes impossible to bridge, IDK.

Edited September 9, 2022 by Kasimir

[SymphonianBookworm]

7 hours ago, Kasimir said:

@SymphonianBookworm, just to cover some bets, would you object to this sort of arrangement: make a Fell Sword for Devo or TUN, whichever of the two you trust most

I mean… sure? If I have nothing else that I prioritize more, I’ll craft a Fell Sword for TUN.
I did role-block Devo, and crafted another Fell Sword. (I didn’t give anything to anyone.)

[Devotary of Spontaneity]

10 hours ago, Kasimir said:

Ok, let's work with this - pretty clear evidence he had a Helm since he can't purely be Shielded twice in a row. But we also know he had a Knife, since I got Knifed. Which means we have two actions here: Made Helm, Made Two Trinkets. 

Do we know what item Mat started with, if any?

E!Symph definitely has a kill + Fell Sword kill so we'll need shields to stop that, but I do think e!Shining is more likely.

[SymphonianBookworm]

At this point, again, I only trust Kas and TUN, so all that's left for me is Devo and Silhouette. Seeing as Silhouette is probably going to be voted out, I think i'm going to kill Devo.

[Kasimir]

4 hours ago, Devotary of Spontaneity said:

Do we know what item Mat started with, if any?

E!Symph definitely has a kill + Fell Sword kill so we'll need shields to stop that, but I do think e!Shining is more likely.

Yeah, basically.

3 hours ago, SymphonianBookworm said:

At this point, again, I only trust Kas and TUN, so all that's left for me is Devo and Silhouette. Seeing as Silhouette is probably going to be voted out, I think i'm going to kill Devo.

There are currently two votes on Shining, which means there is only effectively one vote on Shining. If Shining counter votes you, you have a 50% chance of dying. Why are you so sure Shining will die?

What is the point of RBing Devo last cycle if you still think she's Evil? 

Edited to add: Like c'mon guys. Two votes in a five player round is pathetic when vote manip exists and we can still lose this due to the extra Fell Sword kill floating around. Please vote. I am OK with being argued into voting someone else but this is not an okay vote margin and as it stands, if Shining is Evil, potentially hands a free Villager kill over. 

Look. 

If E!Shining votes Symph right now, in the worst case scenario, Symph dies and Symph kills Devo and Shining kills me. If Shining has a Jewel, then everyone HAS TO VOTE. 

Another endgame against TUN which Shining has a decent chance of winning because Eru only knows who the Silmarils end up with. 

Y'all really okay with that sort of ending? 

C'mon. Please vote. Talk me into voting Symph if you want but not like this. 

@Devotary of Spontaneity @The Unknown Novel @SymphonianBookworm @Shining Silhouette

And Devo, Mat claimed to be shocked that people started with an item but your guess is as good as mine.

Edited to add 2:

Let's do the maths for a Shining vote. Treatment of Symph or anyone else will be the same, just don't subtract one vote.

Suppose we start with four votes on Shining, Shining votes someone else, e.g. Symph.

Quote

Shining (4): Kas, Devo, TUN, Symph
Symph (1): Shining

Now, we know Shining is a noble. This has never been disputed since C1. JNV confirmed this when they noted they received no Jewel. Therefore:

Quote

Shining (3): Kas, Devo, TUN, Symph
Symph (1): Shining

This is the effective votecount.

If Shining has a Jewel and nullifies someone's vote, this is the result:

Quote

Shining (2): Kas, Devo, TUN, Symph
Symph (1): Shining

Anything else results in a tie that has a 50% chance of a Villager dying (in an E!Shining world, Shining is only going to vote a Villager, end of. I suppose Shining could self-vote, but given the way the evidence currently looks, it would take more than that to convince me of V!Shining.)

So we need a full four vote train, in a world with E!Shining and a Jewel, to lynch Shining. For anyone else, we need a three vote train minimum.

Please vote guys. We have a shot at this.

Edited September 9, 2022 by Kasimir
justification and spelling

[SymphonianBookworm]

Okay. I'm sorry, Silho. 

[Kasimir]

Long story short, I'd say likely just use items and abilities where appropriate.

Here's some contingency planning for if Shining isn't Evil. I think Shining is our best bet (sorry Shining) but am open to being talked around.

In an E!Symph world, Symph kills two of us unless TUN Knifes Symph and takes the correct Fell Sword away. But this is unlikely as E!Symph will have received Mat's Helm and can self-protect. Suppose: we lynch Shining, Symph kills me and <Devo, TUN.> The Silmarils are released, so this is a mess. The surviving player between <Devo, TUN> 1v1s Symph. Symph will likely have to keep a Helm because of the Knife - there are a few good plays in this world, but I think the best one requires me to make the correct Shielding decision and pray the gods of luck are on our side.

In an E!Devo world, Symph kills Devo (I think Symph wanted to?); otherwise, at least roleblock Devo. I try to Shield appropriately. Symph-TUN should hopefully be able to 2v1 Devo, but again, Silmarils potential mess. If you have a Fell Sword kill in reserve, this will be good.

In an E!TUN world, the 2v1 is between Devo, Symph, and TUN, with a likely 1v1.

A lot of the uncertainties here come down to how the Silmarils work so I'd say ideally we get the last Elim today so we don't have to find out >>

[Devotary of Spontaneity]

12 minutes ago, Kasimir said:

A lot of the uncertainties here come down to how the Silmarils work so I'd say ideally we get the last Elim today so we don't have to find out >>

How likely is it that Shining has a Jewel? Either way, @The Unknown Novel should make sure the vote is insurmountable.

[Kasimir]

30 minutes ago, Devotary of Spontaneity said:

How likely is it that Shining has a Jewel? Either way, @The Unknown Novel should make sure the vote is insurmountable.

I can't offer that assessment. Melkor makes two Trinkets at one shot and I'm loath to think Melkor started with both a Helm and a Knife. This means he either made a Helm, or two Trinkets. If he made two, we can't rule out the chance the other Trinket is a Knife [Edited to add 2: Meant Jewel here, sorry, I'm tired], if only because it's best to plan for the worst case scenario. According to @Fifth Scholar, people don't choose the Trinkets they make, it's RNGed for. So there's that.

In an E!Symph world, it's possible that Symph made a C3 Trinket (which could be a Knife or a Jewel, we really do not know) - Mat is not a Son of Feanor so it doesn't matter in this world because he would never be able to kill and would thus need to rely on Symph to pull off the kill. (But then, again, if so, Mat could just offer to use the kill for Village cred and get Symph to pull the trigger. Maybe I'm just confbiasing but I really think E!Symph doesn't quite fit.)

In the best case, obviously, Shining has no Jewel so there is no problem.

Edited to add: I can counterJewel, it is true, but I think I'm better off hedging my bets by Shielding. Open to alternate suggestions.

Edited to add 2: Theoretically, actually, if we assume Melkor made the Knife, then there's a 25% chance that the other item is a Jewel, since d4 is rolled.

However, since this is Fifth's d4 and Fifth's dice like to curse the Village, I'm gonna say 0.9 chance >> @Devotary of Spontaneity

Edited September 10, 2022 by Kasimir

[Shining Silhouette]

Honestly, I'm really embarassed right now. I don't really know what to say. Obviously everyone thinks I'm the corrupted, and I doubt there's much to say about that. This game I've been all over the place so I guess it's fitting that I don't make it to the end. 

29 minutes ago, Kasimir said:

In an E!Symph world, Symph kills two of us unless TUN Knifes Symph and takes the correct Fell Sword away. But this is unlikely as E!Symph will have received Mat's Helm and can self-protect. Suppose: we lynch Shining, Symph kills me and <Devo, TUN.> The Silmarils are released, so this is a mess. The surviving player between <Devo, TUN> 1v1s Symph. Symph will likely have to keep a Helm because of the Knife - there are a few good plays in this world, but I think the best one requires me to make the correct Shielding decision and pray the gods of luck are on our side.

In an E!Devo world, Symph kills Devo (I think Symph wanted to?); otherwise, at least roleblock Devo. I try to Shield appropriately. Symph-TUN should hopefully be able to 2v1 Devo, but again, Silmarils potential mess. If you have a Fell Sword kill in reserve, this will be good.

In an E!TUN world, the 2v1 is between Devo, Symph, and TUN, with a likely 1v1.

A lot of the uncertainties here come down to how the Silmarils work so I'd say ideally we get the last Elim today so we don't have to find out >>

E!Symph I'm genuinely terrified about. It means that I've misread this game even more than I actually have. She's been earnest and trustworthy and I feel like there's no way she's playing the long con- but if so? Masterful acting, better than really any I've ever seen (In all of my experience playing this game :P.). Starting from he Feanor reveal nothing's made sense to me, I don't think I've read Symph as elim this game- and that scares me. If I do consider E!Symph, then it's possible that Mat and Symph decided to lean hard into the inexperienced player act for a good endgame. I'm not sure if they'd go that far as to give up potential kills though. If they did they deserve to win the game honestly. That'd be a play for the ages. AH this is hard

Okay, but what the heck is going on with Devo? Did she ever roleclaim? Why has no one talked about this? E!Devo last game was analytical and seemed impartial, and C1 was the opposite of that. Melkor is out of the picture, but does no one else see converted Devo as a possibility? C1 seemed more carefree but the rest of the game has changed her act? Honestly I'm not reading her as elim right, but I don't know why I just realized that Devo didn't roleclaim. 

TUN is weird to me. I just wrote a long paragraph about why he seems so suspicious to me, and then I realized that it all hinged on the fact that he weren't actually a sailor. And if he's not a sailor, then he's nothing right? And that's impossible. So I'm not sure what to think. OH wait he could've been converted as a sailor. That's living the life actually. So scratch statistics of shield protection or whatnot, TUN is the most suspicious of the three to me. I feel like in the last couple cycles he's faded to the background and I guess because of that I've been slightly elim reading them. Though I also vil read Mat. Though maybe I should my read of TUN because I was wrong on my gut read of Mat. Guys why does everything I say sound so suspicious!

Oh, and I started with a shield, by the way (as I said in the paragraph above before I rewrote it).

Anyway, I mean I guess the only way I live is to make a case for Symph, and if I succeed that's good for the village. Probably. As long as the conv isn't Devo or TUN. Honestly though, I don't see it. I can't bring myself to vote for Symph. I just can't see someone taking risks like that and being so bold with their elim play.

So I've voting TUN. If I die, so be it.

[Kasimir]

11 minutes ago, Shining Silhouette said:

Okay, but what the heck is going on with Devo? Did she ever roleclaim? Why has no one talked about this? E!Devo last game was analytical and seemed impartial, and C1 was the opposite of that. Melkor is out of the picture, but does no one else see converted Devo as a possibility? C1 seemed more carefree but the rest of the game has changed her act? Honestly I'm not reading her as elim right, but I don't know why I just realized that Devo didn't roleclaim. 

She roleclaimed Son of Feanor C2, which is why I said it's down to Devo or Mat if you theorise that only Sons of Feanor double role last cycle.

She spent C3 and C4 pushing E!Mat when she didn't have to - there were a menu of options for suspicions, as her only solid Village reads were really myself and Danex. She could have easily pushed Symph with little reprisal, and weakly defended TUN against me. She was the first Mat voter on C4, with TUN the second.

Mat stayed on Devo and that was a two-vote train C2 [Edited to add: Sorry, I'm tired, it was C3] - could easily have been lethal.

Are you seriously trying to sell - that after Mat has been gunning for Devo non-stop, that your top two suspicions are both Mat voters?

Shining, your votes were exceptionally fluid on C1, to the point that JNV voted you for it. Since then, you've narrowed down, refused to significantly engage with the thread, and consistently voted Devo - despite discussion hopping to a number of places on C3, C4. That's a mode shift, too. And in my view, it's more E!indicative - Elims 'know the correct answer', and so have difficulty generating authentic suspicions.

After your mention of playing with Mat in the WoT game, I went back to read that game. And there's a genuine engagement in your posts in that game (excellent work against Vorros, btw) that I'm not seeing in your play after C1. And I think that difference is because you were converted - because why wouldn't Mat want to convert his former Warder anyway, next to an unknown quantity he didn't even know was Feanor at that time?

I won't deny I could see a E!TUN world: Mat is okay endangering TUN for Village points because TUN has an extra life. Neither of them counted on Symph's vig kill and Archer's vote manip. But the thing is, TUN didn't need to vote for Mat. Active Elim teams do need a sacrifice sometimes or mutual distancing, but TUN isn't the sort of active player that makes people go "dude, why are you still alive?" at endgame with Mat. The fact they don't need to do this pushes me somewhat against E!TUN. And it's not really TUN's style - TUN's "Told you so" on C4 is the sort of hyperfocus dgaf I expect from a Villager.

If you really are a Villager, I'm sorry, and I hope you will use your shield wisely to try to help us keep an extra Villager alive through to the next round. But I think I have more unanswered questions about you than TUN or Devo at the moment.

Edited September 10, 2022 by Kasimir

[Shining Silhouette]

2 minutes ago, Kasimir said:

She roleclaimed Son of Feanor C2, which is why I said it's down to Devo or Mat if you theorise that only Sons of Feanor double role last cycle.

Oh.

2 minutes ago, Kasimir said:

If you really are a Villager, I'm sorry, and I hope you will use your shield wisely to try to help us keep an extra Villager alive through to the next round. But I think I have more unanswered questions about you than TUN or Devo at the moment.

Well, yeah, I can do that. Just sent in my action.

Wish that the PM was still open :(.

Honestly, I'd be voting me too.

[Kasimir]

32 minutes ago, Shining Silhouette said:

E!Symph I'm genuinely terrified about. It means that I've misread this game even more than I actually have. She's been earnest and trustworthy and I feel like there's no way she's playing the long con- but if so? Masterful acting, better than really any I've ever seen (In all of my experience playing this game :P.). Starting from he Feanor reveal nothing's made sense to me, I don't think I've read Symph as elim this game- and that scares me. If I do consider E!Symph, then it's possible that Mat and Symph decided to lean hard into the inexperienced player act for a good endgame. I'm not sure if they'd go that far as to give up potential kills though. If they did they deserve to win the game honestly. That'd be a play for the ages. AH this is hard

I agree about the terrifying E!Symph world, and the Sacred Coin tells me to lynch Symph and defend you. I am not fully trusting of the Sacred Coin, but I don't believe the cycle is ended until it is ended.

So let's explore this again. How do you see this working with the actions?

C1 - Mat converts Symph, Symph makes herself a Fell Sword
C2 - Mat kills, Symph makes a Shield for Dannex
C3 - ???, Symph claims she made a Fell Sword for Mat. 
C4 - ???

Suppose:

C3, Mat kills, Symph makes a Helm for Mat? Item crafting precedes Knife theft, so Symph could very well have protected Mat in that very same cycle.
C4, A knife was used on me. So either they start with a knife, or one of them makes it.

Maybe:

C1 - Mat converts Symph, Symph makes herself a Fell Sword
C2 - Mat kills, Symph makes a Shield for Dannex
C3 - ???, Symph makes a Trinket and RNGs a knife
C4 - ???

But that C3 is weirder. If they're going for a knife, you'd think they'd prefer Mat's double trinket action.

So okay:

C3 - Mat makes two Trinkets, Symph kills
C4 - ???

If I were Mat, I make another two Trinkets, or something useful for my teammate anyway and let them decide what to throw away, and let my teammate kill. So instead of a Fell Sword, Symph kills. But then, it's Symph, so the Fell Sword is more useful...???

How does E!TUN work? Thoughts, @Devotary of Spontaneity?

Edited to add: Okay, but this still requires Symph to decide to stab TUN and that's just a bad choice for the Elim team. Better to have TUN stay alive and suck up Village indecision, especially since Mat was going to run with the Shield reasoning, and the FUD tactics. I don't buy this.

Edited to add 2: @Shining Silhouette FWIW, the strongest Village case I can see in your favour, which would nudge me to E!TUN instead, would be the timing of your last post. That it doesn't feel quite right for a Refuge in Audacity tactic, by doubling down on supporting Mat, because you kind of gain nothing. It does feel like a Villager move, because an Elim would be aware of the optics. But then again, IDK - E!Shining is kind of SOL because the other options aren't great: voting alongside Mat will be eh, and a very late vote on Mat would attract scrutiny because bandwagoning. So IDK.

Edited September 10, 2022 by Kasimir

[Shining Silhouette]

3 minutes ago, Kasimir said:

I agree about the terrifying E!Symph world, and the Sacred Coin tells me to lynch Symph and defend you. I am not fully trusting of the Sacred Coin, but I don't believe the cycle is ended until it is ended.

So let's explore this again. How do you see this working with the actions?

C1 - Mat converts Symph, Symph makes herself a Fell Sword
C2 - Mat kills, Symph makes a Shield for Dannex
C3 - ???, Symph claims she made a Fell Sword for Mat. 
C4 - ???

Suppose:

C3, Mat kills, Symph makes a Helm for Mat? Item crafting precedes Knife theft, so Symph could very well have protected Mat in that very same cycle.
C4, A knife was used on me. So either they start with a knife, or one of them makes it.

Maybe:

C1 - Mat converts Symph, Symph makes herself a Fell Sword
C2 - Mat kills, Symph makes a Shield for Dannex
C3 - ???, Symph makes a Trinket and RNGs a knife
C4 - ???

But that C3 is weirder. If they're going for a knife, you'd think they'd prefer Mat's double trinket action.

So okay:

C3 - Mat makes two Trinkets, Symph kills
C4 - ???

If I were Mat, I make another two Trinkets, or something useful for my teammate anyway and let them decide what to throw away, and let my teammate kill. So instead of a Fell Sword, Symph kills. But then, it's Symph, so the Fell Sword is more useful...???

How does E!TUN work? Thoughts, @Devotary of Spontaneity?

Edited to add: Okay, but this still requires Symph to decide to stab TUN and that's just a bad choice for the Elim team. Better to have TUN stay alive and suck up Village indecision, especially since Mat was going to run with the Shield reasoning, and the FUD tactics. I don't buy this.

I agree. In regards to the helm though, is it not possible that he started with that C1? I mean Fifth did decide for some reason to void C1 exe immunity.

"C3 - Mat makes two trinkets, Symph kills" doesn't seem optimal. Though Fell Sword is 100% blocked by shield I believe, and perhaps they wanted to have a knife/jewel/sword to steal an item, vote manip, or action/item block because the sword can do that once a game. I think it's plausible. 

C4 - The two trinkets gave them a knife which was used to stab you.

When was TUN stabbed?

[Devotary of Spontaneity]

8 minutes ago, Kasimir said:

Thoughts

We can handle E!Symph. I toss a gemstone at her, both kills get redirected to me, you and TUN win next cycle. If I'm shielded I even have a chance to live. E!TUN isn't a threat unless v!Symph kills me, although I suppose anything could happen if you die and the silmarils are released. Shining is both the most likely elim and the current biggest threat in terms of vote-power.

[Kasimir]

7 minutes ago, Shining Silhouette said:

I agree. In regards to the helm though, is it not possible that he started with that C1? I mean Fifth did decide for some reason to void C1 exe immunity.

He could, that's why I'm factoring it out.

7 minutes ago, Shining Silhouette said:

"C3 - Mat makes two trinkets, Symph kills" doesn't seem optimal. Though Fell Sword is 100% blocked by shield I believe, and perhaps they wanted to have a knife/jewel/sword to steal an item, vote manip, or action/item block because the sword can do that once a game. I think it's plausible. 

True - I'm guessing, but the main reason I postulate Mat makes two trinkets in C3 is because:

7 minutes ago, Shining Silhouette said:

C4 - The two trinkets gave them a knife which was used to stab you.

If I put in a trinket order in C3, the first time I can use the trinket is in C4. The timing is otherwise not right. So if we assume Melkor did not start with a Knife (e.g. we assume Melkor started with a Helm), then it basically has to be a C3 thing. But Symph's actions in C3 are backed by Mat, and we know Mat is Melkor.

In an E/E world, Mat lies and they do whatever. In a V/E world, Mat has to tell the truth.

But I am honestly not sure about the Melkor starting with a Helm thing. It's an assumption on both sides, but if Melkor doesn't, then Symph is Village. That's a big deal.

5 minutes ago, Devotary of Spontaneity said:

We can handle E!Symph. I toss a gemstone at her, both kills get redirected to me, you and TUN win next cycle. If I'm shielded I even have a chance to live. E!TUN isn't a threat unless v!Symph kills me, although I suppose anything could happen if you die and the silmarils are released. Shining is both the most likely elim and the current biggest threat in terms of vote-power.

Works for me.

Edited to add: @Shining Silhouette, TUN claimed to have stabbed Mat C3 and C4. It failed both times, meaning Mat had protection by then.

Edited to add 2: @Devotary of Spontaneity So, uh, where'd you get that gemstone from?

Edited September 10, 2022 by Kasimir

[Shining Silhouette]

1 minute ago, Kasimir said:

TUN claimed to have stabbed Mat C3 and C4. It failed both times, meaning Mat had protection by then.

Oh, I thought you meant TUN had been stabbed himself. I know I've missed a lot, but I'm glad I didn't miss that.

4 minutes ago, Devotary of Spontaneity said:

We can handle E!Symph. I toss a gemstone at her, both kills get redirected to me, you and TUN win next cycle. If I'm shielded I even have a chance to live. E!TUN isn't a threat unless v!Symph kills me, although I suppose anything could happen if you die and the silmarils are released. Shining is both the most likely elim and the current biggest threat in terms of vote-power.

Can't argue with this. At least village has a *good* shot once I die. Makes me feel a lot better

[Kasimir]

@Fifth Scholar 

1. Can I just vote for everyone now.

2. Can I abdicate after this game.

I'm a republican now .__.

I can't do this king business anymore it's too stressful .___.

[Fifth Scholar]

8 minutes ago, Kasimir said:

@Fifth Scholar 

1. Can I just vote for everyone now.

2. Can I abdicate after this game.

I'm a republican now .__.

I can't do this king business anymore it's too stressful .___.

Manwë save our gracious King,

Long live the noble King,

Manwë save the King.

Send him victorious,

Stress-free and glorious,

Long to reign over us, even when he should have died four turns ago

Manwë save the King!

 

Oh Lord Eru arise,

Scatter his enemies

And make them fall.

Confound their politics,

Frustrate their knavish tricks, 

On Thee our hopes we fix,

Eru save us all.

 

Thy choicest GIFs in store

On him be pleased to pour,

Long may he sleep.

May he defend our laws

And ever give us cause

To sing with heart and voice

Manwë save the King!

Cycle closed!!

Edited September 10, 2022 by Fifth Scholar

[Fifth Scholar]

Okay I was joking the game is over  

I announce the next 24 hours as an amnesty! All dead players, spectators, and people who would have died this cycle (Devo, Symph, Shining) can talk, RP, meme, commiserate, do anagrams, and whatever else in this thread as I prepare to give you a decent writeup for the aftermath (and give people death scenes who didn’t get them earlier). Thank you all for playing! This was definitely one of my favourite GMing experiences and that is entirely thanks to y’all.