Long Game 88: Blood and Bloody Ashes!

[Araris Valerian]

37 minutes ago, Matrim's Dice said:

How do you feel about voting alongside Vorros?

Kinda fine since none of my reads are really that strong, and my suspicion relies on several assumptions about the D1 voting.

[Conquestor]

Sorry I haven't been as active. I'll be around for the next 4 hours and I'll try to be around an hour before the cycle ends (I'm assuming that will be around 10pm...). 

6 hours ago, xinoehp512 said:

Xino (2): Vorros, Araris
Mat (1): Sart
Vorros (1): Mat
Conquestor (1): Xino

I think Luck/Conquestor are e/e.

You forgot about my vote on Sart, of which I'm not completely sure of anymore. Also, why do you think that me and luck are teamed? Are there specific instances you are thinking about or no? Also, I'm thinking that Xino isn't an elim because of how little resoning he's giving... NOW ONE SECOND, I would definitely like more info and better reasoning, but I see it as more vil to care a little less about your life than an elim would. That being said, I am a big supporter of trying to save yourself, since at least that tends to generate discussion. Also, can I be the first to point out that this series of votes is actually much easier for the Forsaken and his buddies to manipulate? How do we even really know that Xino has two votes on him or that Vorros does? I'm not pointing out specific people, my point is that the forsaken could easily change things around here, which is not good for us.

Also, both Araris's and Devotary's physical actions failed. I'm willing to bet that they are being honest about it because that could easily bite them in the butt later as an elim. That doesn't mean that they aren't elims since someone else could've submitted the action or they could be lying, but it's a start. I'm also glad that Devo finally just asked our all powerful overlord TUN about the Warder because I think that we were all confused about it on some level or another.

It's getting close to then end of the cycle, well relatively, and Shining, Luckspren, and Devo haven't voted yet. I know that Devo will vote when there's about 20 minutes left, but @Luckspren and @Shining Silhouette are you two going to vote and if not, why not? (I know that it can be scary to vote Shining but you get used to it the more you do it.)

[Shining Silhouette]

1 minute ago, Conquestor said:

It's getting close to then end of the cycle, well relatively, and Shining, Luckspren, and Devo haven't voted yet. I know that Devo will vote when there's about 20 minutes left, but @Luckspren and @Shining Silhouette are you two going to vote and if not, why not? (I know that it can be scary to vote Shining but you get used to it the more you do it.)

I'm planning on voting, I'm just going to wait a little longer to see if anyone else posts. I'm probably going to look back at the older threads in the next couple hours to see if I can get any sturdy reads on anyone.

[Vorros]

37 minutes ago, Conquestor said:

Also, I'm thinking that Xino isn't an elim because of how little resoning he's giving... NOW ONE SECOND, I would definitely like more info and better reasoning, but I see it as more vil to care a little less about your life than an elim would.

That’s funny, because I elim read him because of how little info he gave. He obviously has read enough of the thread to be able to post a post count, so he should have some idea of what’s going on. Even if you are just skimming the thread to look for votes; you still see what’s going on. That means he should have some reasoning behind his vote, especially since he thought Conq looked paired with Luck. 
 

But the second part is a good point. I should reconsider on him first. xinoehp512

 If he is an elim his teammate(s) must be pretty frustrated with him. 

Edited August 17, 2022 by Vorros

[Mat]

I got off work early, so you guys get this post early! :D.

It has come to my attention via a PM friend (promise, no funny Anon PMer business but an actual Anon PMer :P) that Vorros was Traced last night and submitted a kill and a roleblock.

Hence my casing of him. Tbh without that result I likely would have happily kept v reading him :P. No one bit on it, so I’m just revealing this so we can get the exe. Was hoping to without revealing but eh

[Conquestor]

31 minutes ago, Matrim's Dice said:

I got off work early, so you guys get this post early! :D.

It has come to my attention via a PM friend (promise, no funny Anon PMer business but an actual Anon PMer :P) that Vorros was Traced last night and submitted a kill and a roleblock.

Hence my casing of him. Tbh without that result I likely would have happily kept v reading him :P. No one bit on it, so I’m just revealing this so we can get the exe. Was hoping to without revealing but eh

I see no reason for you to lie about that, because if you're lying then you would be the next target and I don't see the elims doing that without some kind of crazy plan. You also don't seem like the type to take that kind of risk as an Elim. 

Sart, Vorros

[Mat]

6 minutes ago, Conquestor said:

You also don't seem like the type to take that kind of risk as an Elim. 

Ah, you’d be surprised  

The risk taking aspect though is a turn off for me, you’re right about that. But plan wise sounds like a fun challenge tbh

But yeah it’d be a dumb ploy to do a 1-1 trade at this stage in the game

[Araris Valerian]

57 minutes ago, Matrim's Dice said:

I got off work early, so you guys get this post early! :D.

It has come to my attention via a PM friend (promise, no funny Anon PMer business but an actual Anon PMer :P) that Vorros was Traced last night and submitted a kill and a roleblock.

Hence my casing of him. Tbh without that result I likely would have happily kept v reading him :P. No one bit on it, so I’m just revealing this so we can get the exe. Was hoping to without revealing but eh

Well then. I suppose at least one of the people on my list was elim then. Xino, Vorros

Edit: You should probably reveal the PMer's identity though. That way if Vorros does flip village, we don't get another 50-50 between you and the person you claim sent the message.

Edited August 17, 2022 by Araris Valerian

[Mat]

14 minutes ago, Araris Valerian said:

Edit: You should probably reveal the PMer's identity though. That way if Vorros does flip village, we don't get another 50-50 between you and the person you claim sent the message.

Nope, not gonna happen :P. I’m fairly confident this is real and I’m not about to set up another person to be NKd, already putting myself out there.

I don’t see how revealing them now does anything to change a 50/50 between us in the case of a village flip, honestly, it only serves the elims.

[Sart]

7 minutes ago, Matrim's Dice said:

Nope, not gonna happen :P. I’m fairly confident this is real and I’m not about to set up another person to be NKd, already putting myself out there.

I don’t see how revealing them now does anything to change a 50/50 between us in the case of a village flip, honestly, it only serves the elims.

Okay, I'll bite. Matrim's Dice. Vorros. Makes Conq look a lot worse, and also makes me suspect Luck a fair amount.

[Araris Valerian]

9 minutes ago, Matrim's Dice said:

I don’t see how revealing them now does anything to change a 50/50 between us in the case of a village flip, honestly, it only serves the elims.

The easy elim play is for you to claim X person scanned Vorros as sending in the kill, but not reveal the identity of X. Then when Vorros flips village, you give some random name as the person you were PMing, and it becomes a 50-50. If you reveal now, then that counterclaim can happen before we flip anyone. If you refuse to share, and Vorros flips village, I'm 100% going to vote you and not your PM contact.

[Sart]

3 minutes ago, Araris Valerian said:

The easy elim play is for you to claim X person scanned Vorros as sending in the kill, but not reveal the identity of X. Then when Vorros flips village, you give some random name as the person you were PMing, and it becomes a 50-50. If you reveal now, then that counterclaim can happen before we flip anyone. If you refuse to share, and Vorros flips village, I'm 100% going to vote you and not your PM contact.

I mean... let me do the math here. Best case scenario for the elims, there's 3 of them. It's 6 to 3 right now. We kill V!Vorros, so it goes to 5 to 3. Elims get their kill in properly. 4 to 3. 50-50 scenario, with potential for vote manipulation shenanigans. It's doable, but extremely risky, and I'm not sure that's warranted at this stage of the game. There hasn't been a runaway target this Day turn, so the elims could have just subtly pushed in the wrong direction, rather than going for a big gambit.

[Vorros]

1 hour ago, Matrim's Dice said:

I got off work early, so you guys get this post early! :D.

It has come to my attention via a PM friend (promise, no funny Anon PMer business but an actual Anon PMer :P) that Vorros was Traced last night and submitted a kill and a roleblock.

Hence my casing of him. Tbh without that result I likely would have happily kept v reading him :P. No one bit on it, so I’m just revealing this so we can get the exe. Was hoping to without revealing but eh

Ha, funny man. Your first thing wrong with this is that I’m a channeling role. I used a weave and a weave only last night, so I couldn’t have submitted two physical actions. Also, if it was someone else who traced me, why were you the only one to push me before this point? If your partner did it, they would have been voting me too. 
 

Another thing: why hide the fact that you had mech info? All hiding it does is make you look more desperate and shady. If you had opened with mech info and backed it up with a case, it would have gone much farther towards burying me if you really meant it. Even as it is now, I can’t tell if you are an elim trying to bury a solid villager or if you are just doing an RT for some reason. 
 

Nice attempt tho.

Matrim’s Dice 

 

Edited August 17, 2022 by Vorros

[Shining Silhouette]

3 minutes ago, Vorros said:

Ha, funny man. Your first thing wrong with this is that I’m a channeling role. I used a weave and a weave only last night, so I couldn’t have submitted two physical actions. Also, if it was someone else who traced me, why were you the only one to push me before this point? If your partner did it, they would have been voting me too. 
 

Another thing: why hide the fact that you had mech info? All hiding it does is make you look more desperate and shady. If you had opened with mech info and backed it up with a case, it would have gone much farther towards burying me if you really meant it. Even as it is now, I can’t tell if you are an elim trying to bury a solid villager or if you are just doing an RT for some reason. 
 

Nice attempt tho.

This is off for me, Vorros. Your tone feels really smug to me and like you're trying hard to seem confident. Maybe you are, but first of all, there's this from the rules: "Physical Actions: (You may take two per turn or one and at least one weave)", so even if you used a weave, you could've killed another player.

Well, if we consider the scenario that Mat is vil, then revealing whoever the PMer was just gives the elims someone else to target. I don't think it's shady; I think it makes sense. Though if Mat is elim, this is more suspicious...but honestly if Vorros flips village we know Mat's elim and all his previous posts become suspect. From that we can probably figure out who his partners are and I think we would have a good chance from that point. 

26 minutes ago, Sart said:

I mean... let me do the math here. Best case scenario for the elims, there's 3 of them. It's 6 to 3 right now. We kill V!Vorros, so it goes to 5 to 3. Elims get their kill in properly. 4 to 3. 50-50 scenario, with potential for vote manipulation shenanigans. It's doable, but extremely risky, and I'm not sure that's warranted at this stage of the game. There hasn't been a runaway target this Day turn, so the elims could have just subtly pushed in the wrong direction, rather than going for a big gambit.

This does seem risky. E!Vorros seems plausible at this point, he was only very slight Vil before for me anyway.

Good enough for me, Mat. Vorros

[Mat]

6 minutes ago, Vorros said:

Your first thing wrong with this is that I’m a channeling role. I used a weave and a weave only last night, so I couldn’t have submitted two physical actions

There’s actually no guarantee or record of that, but sure :P. I kinda thought weaves counted as physical actions but that might not be true. Either way you could just be an e!Blademaster who’s claiming ability to weave, I don’t know. I know what my PM contact told me.

7 minutes ago, Vorros said:

Also, if it was someone else who traced me, why were you the only one to push me before this point? If your partner did it, they would have been voting me too. 

We didn’t see a reason to give away any more people than we needed to. They’re conf village if you’re elim but technically I’m not, so I’m a better spokesperson. If two people simultaneously started suspecting you at the same time it’d be pretty obvious.

8 minutes ago, Vorros said:

Another thing: why hide the fact that you had mech info? All hiding it does is make you look more desperate and shady. If you had opened with mech info and backed it up with a case, it would have gone much farther towards burying me if you really meant it. Even as it is now, I can’t tell if you are an elim trying to bury a solid villager or if you are just doing an RT for some reason.

Because there’s no point in making myself a NK target if I don’t have to. Killing you via a legit case is far better than killing you via mech, just because the former doesn’t make me/my PM friend a target and the latter does.

It’s funny you accuse this of looking desperate and shady cause there’s no reason for me to be either of those things right now. I might have had a single vote but I didn’t feel in danger of getting exed. There was nothing for me to be desperate about.

33 minutes ago, Araris Valerian said:

The easy elim play is for you to claim X person scanned Vorros as sending in the kill, but not reveal the identity of X. Then when Vorros flips village, you give some random name as the person you were PMing, and it becomes a 50-50. If you reveal now, then that counterclaim can happen before we flip anyone. If you refuse to share, and Vorros flips village, I'm 100% going to vote you and not your PM contact.

Fair enough I suppose, but I think I can convince you otherwise if I have to. But I’m willing to take that risk.

I am going to point out though that there’s no downside to e!me revealing my contact’s name here.

[Luckspren]

If Vorros flips Village, you're dead, Mat... but your post sounds right and Vorros's sounds wrong. Vorros. 

[Sart]

17 minutes ago, Vorros said:

Ha, funny man. Your first thing wrong with this is that I’m a channeling role. I used a weave and a weave only last night, so I couldn’t have submitted two physical actions.

 

...wait, that's a good point. @Matrim's Dice you're claiming that the scan saw both a role-block and a kill? The only way that's possible is if Vorros is an E!Blademaster. That's not... not possible, but it would be rather surprising. The other alternative is that the scan saw an Earthquake/Harden Air weave, but that doesn't make sense according the wording of Trace.

Let me get GM clarification. @The Unknown Novel does Trace also detect Weave actions, such as Earthquake or Harden Air? Also, does it reveal targets for the actions that were done? That would be a valuable piece of info.

[Araris Valerian]

4 minutes ago, Matrim's Dice said:

I am going to point out though that there’s no downside to e!me revealing my contact’s name here.

Yeah? Because in the scenario I proposed, there is no contact, it's just you. So anyone you named would counterclaim, and we'd at least know that Vorros was never scanned. @Vorros, did you take a confirmable Channel action during the previous night?

Edited August 17, 2022 by Araris Valerian

[Mat]

Look, until this exact moment I thought that Trace for sure tracked weaves but now I’m unsure. Which is awkward  

But I… don’t think my contact is lying. They’re not someone who I think would pull this gambit, or someone who I think would include the RB detail if they did. There’s not really a reason to, it’s a risky assumption that a RB happened at all.

Also, pretty sure Trace doesn’t reveal target names. My contact would have mentioned it.

1 minute ago, Araris Valerian said:

Yeah? Because in the scenario I proposed, there is no contact, it's just you. So anyone you named would counterclaim, and we'd at least know that Vorros was never scanned. @Vorros, did you take a confirmable Channel action during the previous night?

Oh yeah

Nvm then :P. But I do have a contact, so meh :P.

[Conquestor]

42 minutes ago, Sart said:

Okay, I'll bite. Matrim's Dice. Vorros. Makes Conq look a lot worse, and also makes me suspect Luck a fair amount.

Why? Why does this make me look worse? Yes, both luck and Vorros defended me last time but it would be idiotic for my entire team to try and defend me in the bandwagon, so there would be at least one Elim that would be frowning on me. 

@Matrim's DiceAlso, just putting this out there, this could be a ploy to save Xino, who might be Matrim's teammate. Yes, he's been glaring at him but how do we not know that it is a ploy. He voted for Xino last cycle, but Xino wasn't in danger of dying in the first place. I agree with Araris, I would like to know the name of the PMer. 

Also, @Vorros, what actions did you take last night and on the first day cycle? 

[Mat]

Just now, Conquestor said:

Why? Why does this make me look worse? Yes, both luck and Vorros defended me last time but it would be idiotic for my entire team to try and defend me in the bandwagon, so there would be at least one Elim that would be frowning on me. 

I think Luck is definitely not teamed with you, fwiw, but Vorros was playbook e/e with you last turn.

1 minute ago, Conquestor said:

@Matrim's DiceAlso, just putting this out there, this could be a ploy to save Xino, who might be Matrim's teammate. Yes, he's been glaring at him but how do we not know that it is a ploy. He voted for Xino last cycle, but Xino wasn't in danger of dying in the first place. I agree with Araris, I would like to know the name of the PMer. 

Dude, I don’t need a ploy  There’s no reason for me to put myself in danger that way. I made a case, I don’t remember the timing exactly but that was before the xino train (if you can call it that) took off at all. And besides, I don’t think pre-my reveal the elims are real concerned about a VC with a bunch of low tied votes. Certainly not enough for me to do this.

[Conquestor]

5 minutes ago, Matrim's Dice said:

I think Luck is definitely not teamed with you, fwiw, but Vorros was playbook e/e with you last turn.

Dude, I don’t need a ploy  There’s no reason for me to put myself in danger that way. I made a case, I don’t remember the timing exactly but that was before the xino train (if you can call it that) took off at all. And besides, I don’t think pre-my reveal the elims are real concerned about a VC with a bunch of low tied votes. Certainly not enough for me to do this.

I actually agree that it doesn't make sense for you to put yourself out there if you were elim, it would've made more sense for someone who more people were neutral about or leaning slightly Elim on, like Vorros himself, but that's assuming there is someone on your possible Elim team like that. I'm willing to trust you on this, so hopefully you didn't just pull a fast one! 

[Vorros]

18 minutes ago, Shining Silhouette said:

Maybe you are, but first of all, there's this from the rules: "Physical Actions: (You may take two per turn or one and at least one weave)", so even if you used a weave, you could've killed another player.

But if you use physical actions, your odds of your weave succeeding go down. I wanted to make sure my odds of my weave succeeding as high as possible (it didn’t help). Next, I was caught doing two physical actions, so if I channeled it would have only caught my other action if I did one. 
 

Another possibility is that Mat is a villager, but his informant is an elim giving false information. Mat needs to put his partner so that when I flip V we can hold both of them accountable. 

[Vorros]

16 minutes ago, Conquestor said:

Also, @Vorros, what actions did you take last night and on the first day cycle? 

Sorry for double posting but I can’t figure out a good way to multi quote on mobile. 
 

D1 I opened a PM with Luck and channeled. N1 I just channeled. 

[Sart]

1 minute ago, Vorros said:

Sorry for double posting but I can’t figure out a good way to multi quote on mobile. 
 

D1 I opened a PM with Luck and channeled. N1 I just channeled. 

Okay... what did you channel? That's kind of the important part.