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Long Game 88: Blood and Bloody Ashes!


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Wait could it be that they tried to kill someone else but Wizard took the bullet instead? That makes more sense than a wizard kill. It was an odd night as well, so they were protecting their Aes Sedai.

@Conquestor I have a question. I don’t know how confident you are on Mat being an elim, but who do you think it could be if it isn’t Mat?

Edited by Vorros
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I have a theory about Wizard. I was elim targeted in a past game because they knew I couldn't possibly have put a protect on myself, and therefore the kill was very likely to go through. With the amount of possible protects in the game, it makes sense to attack the player who wasn't on at all and therefore didn't submit any actions. 

 

1 hour ago, Vorros said:

It was an odd night as well, so they were protecting their Aes Sedai.

Well, they obviously weren't protecting themselves, but the rules just say 'every other night', so I think Warders could start off on either foot. 

 

1 hour ago, Vorros said:

could it be that they tried to kill someone else but Wizard took the bullet instead?

How? I don't see any game mechanic that could make that happen. 

Edited by Luckspren
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1 hour ago, Vorros said:

Wait could it be that they tried to kill someone else but Wizard took the bullet instead? That makes more sense than a wizard kill. It was an odd night as well, so they were protecting their Aes Sedai.

@Conquestor I have a question. I don’t know how confident you are on Mat being an elim, but who do you think it could be if it isn’t Mat?

Well, I'm not that confident about Mat being an elim. I just think that it's interesting that my Mat being forsaken scenario hadn't yet been brought up until that point. Also, I listed that I thought it was more likely for the Forsaken to have voted on me. Well, in that same vein. Sart. I'm not sure what really what else to add, I've already given my reasons for this vote.

As for Mat's two scenarios. I like how in depth and nice the me being elim one is, however, isn't that a case against it in itself? It's never that simple, even once you do find an elim. As for the me being village scenario, it is interesting that you mark down Vorros and Luckspren as pretty good chances in both. You also put Sart in both but as smaller odds... 

As a warder, Wizard would've been bonded to an Aes Sedai. I doubt it would be the Forsaken though, but I guess it's possible. I think that the elims would've targeted wizard since most people read wizard as slight village or neutral. It would've been hard to start a train on them. The same goes for shining, but I think they spared him because he's new. Also, as a warder, Wizard would have little else to do with his actions except to make pms, right? It would be interesting to know who else he made pms with. That's right, I myself had a pm with wizard. His dying breath to me was "Forsaken hidden in vote, though anything is possible. I am mostly deciphering things, I think." It's entirely possible that when he made pms, he gave himself away as a warder and was thus targeted as a shot in the dark. I also think it's a little crazy that we haven't seen an Aes Sedai die yet, I would think it was the most common role and maybe it is and we've been unlucky in terms of who is dying. I would assume that there is probably four+ Aes Sedai with at least one or two of them being elim.

@The Unknown Novel Can the forsaken and an Aes Sedai link? I would think so, but at the same time I don't think so. Is it only Aes Sedai who can link?

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2 minutes ago, Conquestor said:

Well, I'm not that confident about Mat being an elim. I just think that it's interesting that my Mat being forsaken scenario hadn't yet been brought up until that point. Also, I listed that I thought it was more likely for the Forsaken to have voted on me. Well, in that same vein. Sart. I'm not sure what really what else to add, I've already given my reasons for this vote.

As for Mat's two scenarios. I like how in depth and nice the me being elim one is, however, isn't that a case against it in itself? It's never that simple, even once you do find an elim. As for the me being village scenario, it is interesting that you mark down Vorros and Luckspren as pretty good chances in both. You also put Sart in both but as smaller odds... 

As a warder, Wizard would've been bonded to an Aes Sedai. I doubt it would be the Forsaken though, but I guess it's possible. I think that the elims would've targeted wizard since most people read wizard as slight village or neutral. It would've been hard to start a train on them. The same goes for shining, but I think they spared him because he's new. Also, as a warder, Wizard would have little else to do with his actions except to make pms, right? It would be interesting to know who else he made pms with. That's right, I myself had a pm with wizard. His dying breath to me was "Forsaken hidden in vote, though anything is possible. I am mostly deciphering things, I think." It's entirely possible that when he made pms, he gave himself away as a warder and was thus targeted as a shot in the dark. I also think it's a little crazy that we haven't seen an Aes Sedai die yet, I would think it was the most common role and maybe it is and we've been unlucky in terms of who is dying. I would assume that there is probably four+ Aes Sedai with at least one or two of them being elim.

@The Unknown Novel Can the forsaken and an Aes Sedai link? I would think so, but at the same time I don't think so. Is it only Aes Sedai who can link?

Certainly. Any channeling roles can link, including the Amyrlin, Forsaken, and even the Shepherd. 

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2 hours ago, Vorros said:

(1) Wait could it be that they tried to kill someone else but Wizard took the bullet instead? That makes more sense than a wizard kill. (2) It was an odd night as well, so they were protecting their Aes Sedai.

Conq, I have a question. I don’t know how confident you are on Mat being an elim, but (3) who do you think it could be if it isn’t Mat?

1. How could Wizard have taken a bullet for anyone? Is there any game mechanic that makes that possible?

2. Who the Warder protects isn't determined by the night number, it's determined by who they didn't protect last time. 

3. If Mat's an elim, he's still not the only one. 

This post is weird. I don't know if it's indicative of anything, it's just... weird. 

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28 minutes ago, Luckspren said:

3. If Mat's an elim, he's still not the only one. 

 Chances are, even if Mat is an Elim (though I don't lean that way currently), we still have another probably two to catch. 

@Vorros, where do your suspicions lie right now? I'd be curious to see who you find suspicious (especially given your MU experience) because if I'm not wrong, you haven't really made an elim read on anyone since Illwei Cycle one.

Edited by Shining Silhouette
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3 hours ago, Vorros said:

It was an odd night as well, so they were protecting their Aes Sedai

Oooh is this a slip? In which Vorros killed off his Warder since he knew he wouldn’t be protected?

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1 hour ago, Luckspren said:

1. How could Wizard have taken a bullet for anyone? Is there any game mechanic that makes that possible?

2. Who the Warder protects isn't determined by the night number, it's determined by who they didn't protect last time. 

3. If Mat's an elim, he's still not the only one. 

This post is weird. I don't know if it's indicative of anything, it's just... weird. 

I believe I misunderstood the Warder role. I thought it acted like a loyal bodyguard with a 50% chance of working, so the warder would take turns protecting himself and his Aes Sedai, but the protection would only have a 50% chance of succeeding. I didn’t realize that the 50% is for BOTH of them dying, and the protection is separate (but also 50%). I think I also assumed that “protect” implies dying in their stead, but I suppose it could just be kill prevention. I think I also assumed that the protection was an action and not a passive, and that most warders would protect their Aes Sedai on their first turn. 
(3): True. I know he said that he had a hard time committing out of fear of being wrong, but I also wanted to make sure he wasn’t committing just to commit. I wanted to see if he thought through the other solutions and presented the one he thought probable. If he did, then he would have a second most likely scenario. 
 

I am quite known for weird posts actually. 

1 hour ago, Shining Silhouette said:

 Chances are, even if Mat is an Elim (though I don't lean that way currently), we still have another probably two to catch. 

@Vorros, where do your suspicions lie right now? I'd be curious to see who you find suspicious (especially given your MU experience) because if I'm not wrong, you haven't really made an elim read on anyone since Illwei Cycle one.

Unfortunately I townread all of the most active players, which is a problem I run into every game (yes, even the ones where I’m a wolf). I doubt it’s as easy as the three lowest posters, but I have a really hard time reading volume as anything but villagery. The person I’m most suspicious of is Xino because of how they ditched the game pretty much. Left that one vote on Conq, I think, then hasn’t said a word since. Since Illwei was green and I think Conq is too, that makes me think that he threw his vote on a wagon and called it a day since the two main wagons were both(?) green. There are almost no wagon shifts here compared to other communities, so if he’s someone who has played here before it makes sense for them to get away with a passive wolfing style. In fact, I have a test for this. @xinoehp512 what is your worldview looking like buddy?

 

EDIT: My phone is dying so I kinda rushed and forgot this part. I think I started this thought with the too many townreads things but forgot to finish it. I usually have a wolf in my townreads because of effort, so when we reach a point where everyone is posting and there are no easy people to wolfread I usually shrug and sheep my favorite case. I’m ofc gonna try to find the elims, but it may not be with the same conviction as my Illwei push. Let’s just hope the elims make themselves clear to It’s not really useful to town because I essentially become dead weight, but it does have another benefit ;)
 

ANOTHER EDIT: I haven’t really given Devotary and consideration. I’m gonna go back and read up on him after I charge my phone. I’ll edit it into this post if nobody has posted by then. 

54 minutes ago, Matrim's Dice said:

Oooh is this a slip? In which Vorros killed off his Warder since he knew he wouldn’t be protected?

Um, no? I don’t know how warders work (clearly), so if I did have one I would have understood. And if I was an elim, why would I throw away free protection when I had 6-7 other options to choose from?

Spoiler

Okay, so this is an explanation of the xino thing. I’m hoping he doesn’t read this otherwise it’s just gonna be a blow over and pointless . So the point is that if he responds relatively promptly and has a decent answer then it means that he has been following the thread but just never posting. If he takes a while to respond or answers with “Oh, I’ve been gone. I’m not caught up”, then it means that he really was just AFK and his absence is NAI.

I have another test too depending on how he responds.

 

Edited by Vorros
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1 hour ago, Vorros said:

the protection is separate (but also 50%).

From the rules: 

  • Warder*: You are bonded to an Aes Sedai. If they die, there will be a fifty percent chance that you die. Every other turn, you protect them. On off turns, you protect yourself. You also have a permanent PM with them. ●

Where do you get the idea that the protection is 50%?

 

Also, about Xino, they're listed as recently browsing, and they followed the thread 17 minutes ago.

Edited by Luckspren
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From the fact that they don’t know when they will strike so it’s 50/50 odds of them being on the right person. Or if there is no choice in who Warders protect, then it’s 50/50 who they are protecting anyway. Am I still misunderstanding?

Edited by Vorros
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But my math checks out right? I’m not misunderstanding how Warders work?

 

Also if @xinoehp512 is browsing but not responding that’s not a good look. He may just not have time to reply, but I’m going to place my vote there for now anyway. 
 

xinoehp512

EDIT:

Quote

By Luck Spren - 

Putting myself in the Forsaken's shoes, the safest thing to do would be vote on someone other than Conq and use Compulsion to move a vote from Conq to wherever I am. Assuming smart, active elims whose thought process is similar to mine, I think this is what happened.

There is also this. If xino is the forsaken since he was so inactive he may have forgotten to put in a compulsion action. 

Edited by Vorros
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After going through their Night 1 posts, I've flip-flopped on Conq. I'm currently reading them as Village. Unfortunately, they're currently voting on me. It makes sense as a retaliation vote, but it's not very productive. Making matters worse, Illwei fingered me as the most likely Elim. I'm not, but it means that I need to come up with an alternative candidate. The always lurking Xino is a tempting target, but that's standard village behavior for him. I'm going to vote for Matrim's Dice I really dislike that he accused me in both of his scenarios, regardless of Conq's alignment. In addition, I don't get his first post today. He's not known for CCs, so I was surprised when he said that Wizard would have been his first vote. I'm considering a Mat Araris team with a potential third in Vorros or Luck. Not sure on the newer players, but my gut has gone negative on the veterans.

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9 minutes ago, Sart said:

I'm going to vote for Matrim's Dice I really dislike that he accused me in both of his scenarios, regardless of Conq's alignment. In addition, I don't get his first post today. He's not known for CCs, so I was surprised when he said that Wizard would have been his first vote. I'm considering a Mat Araris team with a potential third in Vorros or Luck. Not sure on the newer players, but my gut has gone negative on the veterans

So you’re voting me because I stuck you in an obligatory third slot while looking at hypothetical worlds, yet still I say I read you village and have given no indication of wanting to vote you?

Weird.

I wouldn’t have CCd Wiz, I thought I made it clear I suspected him in my megapost yesterday for separate reasons. e!me had no reason to comment on that today at all.

I want to read this as you trying to vote me out for being right but that would be arrogant :rolleyes: but fwiw I do think that was a legitimate slip from Vorros, and I’m writing a case on him next. My vote will probably go there. It’d be tough to get me to move it at least.

Actually yknow what let’s just do it now, Vorros. Explanation post coming soon(ish).

Edited by Matrim's Dice
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Aforementioned Explanation Post-
Of Why Vorros is an Eliminator. Probably. At Least, Here Are Some Reasons I Think So:

Shhh I'm in a bolded title mood this game


From Day One:

The only read he really gives is Illwei, and he just pushes there the whole turn. This to me implies e/e with Conq but without either flip it's too early to say. I think the hyperfocus is elimmy anyway, where were his other reads?

And I mean, that's kind of it from D1. He does a good job blending in but after reading his posts a few times I start to get the agenda of blending in behind them. Like, posting responses that just echo someone else or continuing to comment on Illwei.

I can also tinfoil him knowing what the elim doc is all I want but that's probably not a good idea xD


From Night One:

Okay take a look at the last line in this post, is that not the fakest reaction of all reactions :P. I honestly don't know how I didn't comment on that before. But I digress.


From Day Two:

This to me, after Luck's post, reads like a fake reaction as well. I think this is the tunneliest read I have in this ISO, though.

I've mentioned it before, but I totally buy that Vorros slipped when talking about Warder/Aes Sedai mechanics and he's Wiz's Aes Sedai (perhaps the Forsaken) who knew Wiz would be on him and so got an easy kill. I think he weighed the possibilities of himself being vigged (low, he was widely v read) and the possibility of a vig happening at all (also low, Lightning is hard to perform and has a small success rate) and decided the kill was worth it.

To me, his explanations of why he said what he did fall flat and look like a cover-up. Like, the accusation was based off him saying "it was an odd night, so they were protecting their Aes Sedai" and Vorros' response didn't actually explain why he said definitively that Aes Sedais were protected on odd nights. There's no indication of such in the rules, nothing that could lead to that implication. And his 'explanation' doesn't cover that either.


A light TL;DR to follow. Still, please read the above, it's not that long.

But in conclusion, he hyperfocused on Illwei D1 and still hasn't posted a comprehensive reads list, had a couple of arguably fake reactions to flips, and I think he slipped to be Wiz's Aes Sedai and is trying to cover it up- but dodging the main point of the accusation. Additionally, he looks e/e with Conq (who we don't have a flip for, but the dynamic remains) and just based on wagonomics has a higher chance of being elim than most other players, imo.

So there's my case, as usual @ me for questions/concerns/comments. Sorry for the double, but it's been awhile.

Edited by Matrim's Dice
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2 hours ago, Matrim's Dice said:

Aforementioned Explanation Post-
Of Why Vorros is an Eliminator. Probably. At Least, Here Are Some Reasons I Think So:

Shhh I'm in a bolded title mood this game


From Day One:

The only read he really gives is Illwei, and he just pushes there the whole turn. This to me implies e/e with Conq but without either flip it's too early to say. I think the hyperfocus is elimmy anyway, where were his other reads?

Illwei was definitely not the only read I had or posted D1. I made it clear that I townread Conq (at night I did at least), and I townread Luck enough to open a PM chat with her.

Hyperfocus is not e/indicative. Villagers are just as likely to get tunneled as elims want to be. I already admitted that I was tunneled on Illwei to the point that I hadn’t pondered a world outside of you/Illwei. I did the same thing I wanted Conq not to do. Just because I fell into the same old trap doesn’t mean I’m a baddie.  

And I mean, that's kind of it from D1. He does a good job blending in but after reading his posts a few times I start to get the agenda of blending in behind them. Like, posting responses that just echo someone else or continuing to comment on Illwei.

I’ve had this argument before in different places, but here’s my take on it. There are a limited number of reasonable reasons for someone to be pushed or for mech to be discussed. Take a look at Night 1. Everyone was discussing the possibilities of Compulsion/Forsaken/Amyrlin etc., but we all basically said the same thing. I think there were 3 or 4 posts detailing all the possibilities. The same thing goes for cases. There are only so many posts that each player makes, and even less things to find suspicious about them. For the most part, the same red flags are gonna alert different people. If one person speaks up first about those red flags, does that mean everyone else is copying them? No! They saw the red flags too! That’s what’s called a mindmeld, Mat. Take a look at the things I agreed on from other people, then take a look at the things people agreed with me on. Yes, I do have the same ideas as others, and I do even just take their view for my own (as I did with Sart originally), but I also have original thoughts and prompts that others agree with me on.

You are right about blendiness being an elim trait, and if I only sheeped what other people were saying, then I could see it. But since I also have original ideas that others share I just don’t think that you can classify my posts as blendy when they are mindmelds.

I can also tinfoil him knowing what the elim doc is all I want but that's probably not a good idea xD

It doesn’t take much to figure that one out lol.


From Night One:

Okay take a look at the last line in this post, is that not the fakest reaction of all reactions :P. I honestly don't know how I didn't comment on that before. But I digress.

What can I say? I thought it was Illwei ¯\_(ツ)_/¯   


From Day Two:

This to me, after Luck's post, reads like a fake reaction as well. I think this is the tunneliest read I have in this ISO, though.

You mean the one where Luck says “That’s odd”? She also asked what it meant and I provided my take on it. Piggybacking off of above, I agreed then I expanded on her post. I brought a fresh idea to the table.

Oh, and another thing. You called my reactions to both the deaths fake. Calling a reaction or argument fake is just about the easiest and least effective reasoning you could make other than “Gut” or “I don’t know”. Everything an elim does is fake; even the really good posts they make that totally fool everyone are fake. But that also makes “fake” the easiest push to make as an elim. Calling something fake or unbelievable is a non-debatable justification for voting someone. That makes it easy for elims to vote someone without good reasoning. And because it’s something that’s easy for elims to do, it means that that the “fake” argument isn’t valid because it’s so easy to fake. I know this sounds hypocritical, but I’m not calling the argument fake. I’m saying that the argument is too easy to fake to be valid.

I've mentioned it before, but I totally buy that Vorros slipped when talking about Warder/Aes Sedai mechanics and he's Wiz's Aes Sedai (perhaps the Forsaken) who knew Wiz would be on him and so got an easy kill. I think he weighed the possibilities of himself being vigged (low, he was widely v read) and the possibility of a vig happening at all (also low, Lightning is hard to perform and has a small success rate) and decided the kill was worth it.

Like, no? If I was a black sister, then I’m taking any protection I could get because 1) I have a PM with my warder to further convince him I’m town, 2) I’d rather take the chance to kill a person who could channel because they are way more of a threat than my OWN warder, and 3) I would probably be in a healing bi/trifecta with my partners in a healing circle. Just what I would do in that situation. 

To me, his explanations of why he said what he did fall flat and look like a cover-up. Like, the accusation was based off him saying "it was an odd night, so they were protecting their Aes Sedai" and Vorros' response didn't actually explain why he said definitively that Aes Sedais were protected on odd nights. There's no indication of such in the rules, nothing that could lead to that implication. And his 'explanation' doesn't cover that either.

Listen, I can continue to try to explain it, but I have the same access to information that you guys do. I don’t know why I drew the odd/even night conclusion, but I did. I see that I’m wrong now ofc, but I just don’t see how misunderstanding Warder rules means I killed my Warder. If anything, it should mean that I likely DON’T have a Warder.

ACTUALLY: I got clarification that Warders decide when they protect their Aes Sedai. That means the NK could still have been someone else. Anyway.

 


A light TL;DR to follow. Still, please read the above, it's not that long.

But in conclusion, he hyperfocused on Illwei D1 and still hasn't posted a comprehensive reads list, had a couple of arguably fake reactions to flips, and I think he slipped to be Wiz's Aes Sedai and is trying to cover it up- but dodging the main point of the accusation. Additionally, he looks e/e with Conq (who we don't have a flip for, but the dynamic remains) and just based on wagonomics has a higher chance of being elim than most other players, imo.

There has been 1 wagon, and we don’t know if Conq is e or not. You can’t say that I look worse based on wagonomic if both wagons are v because then we all look bad. If Conq is bad then yes, everyone defending him and voting Illwei looks bad. But it’s too early to tell or base an accusation on.

So there's my case, as usual @ me for questions/concerns/comments. Sorry for the double, but it's been awhile.

Responses in blue.

Here is my reads list:

Vil: Luck

Vil Lean: Shining Conq

Vil Slight Lean: Sart, Araris

Null: Devotary, Mat

Elim Lean: Xino

 

I realize that some of my response might come out as passive aggressive or condescending. I do not mean offense, but I’m not gonna change how I wrote it because frankly I am a passionate arguer. I don’t want to take away from my points by writing it more poorly just to be nicer. Please don’t think I’m an asshole.

 

Tomorrow is moving day, so I’m gonna be really busy. I will probably not have the chance to do full check ins, but I will do my best to stay up to date. I should be done with work for a few hours before EoD, so I should have time to sit down, catch up, and talk. 

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9 hours ago, Matrim's Dice said:
  • Devo, obviously, looks quite bad (last minute vote on Illwei)
     
  • We can likely ascribe the manip to the Forsaken regardless of Devo's alignment.|

If Conq and I were elims and the Forsaken vote manipped to save him, me voting for Illwei would be unnecessary.

9 hours ago, Araris Valerian said:

Before I do any analysis, I'm gonna point out that I'm a bit miffed right now, since someone physically blocked me during the Night.

My physical action(s) also failed.

5 hours ago, Conquestor said:

Also, as a warder, Wizard would have little else to do with his actions except to make pms, right? It would be interesting to know who else he made pms with.

I think Warding is a physical action? Or at least I'd assume it would be something that can be tracked, blocked, etc. I don't actually know if it takes up a slot.

1 hour ago, Matrim's Dice said:

"it was an odd night, so they were protecting their Aes Sedai" and Vorros' response didn't actually explain why he said definitively that Aes Sedais were protected on odd nights. There's no indication of such in the rules, nothing that could lead to that implication.

"Every other turn, you protect them. On off turns, you protect yourself." does seem like it's a Aes Sedai-Warder-Aes Sedai... pattern. If it's an action that a Warder has to manually submit every night, there's an increased chance the Warder could choose who to protect first.

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1 hour ago, Vorros said:

I realize that some of my response might come out as passive aggressive or condescending. I do not mean offense, but I’m not gonna change how I wrote it because frankly I am a passionate arguer. I don’t want to take away from my points by writing it more poorly just to be nicer.

You're good, I'm prone to be quite the self defender as well. The tone was fine, thanks for this anyway though!

Putting responses in spoiler boxes for ease of reading and scrolling

Spoiler

 

1 hour ago, Vorros said:

Illwei was definitely not the only read I had or posted D1. I made it clear that I townread Conq (at night I did at least), and I townread Luck enough to open a PM chat with her.

Well yeah, 'at night' was what I was saying. By then the exe had come and gone. Certainly the v Conq read could have been implied with your Illwei read but I didn't see anywhere it was super explicitly stated, just that you didn't think the Conq case itself was good, and that would resolve to a null read to me. As for opening a PM chat, well, no one else knew that at the time.

1 hour ago, Vorros said:

Hyperfocus is not e/indicative. Villagers are just as likely to get tunneled as elims want to be. I already admitted that I was tunneled on Illwei to the point that I hadn’t pondered a world outside of you/Illwei. I did the same thing I wanted Conq not to do. Just because I fell into the same old trap doesn’t mean I’m a baddie.  

My point was that in this case it could be, but agree to disagree I guess :P 

1 hour ago, Vorros said:

You are right about blendiness being an elim trait, and if I only sheeped what other people were saying, then I could see it. But since I also have original ideas that others share I just don’t think that you can classify my posts as blendy when they are mindmelds.

You mentioned N1's mech discussion as a counter point, and I actually had a problem with everyone saying the same thing there too. It felt like, only one person needed to I guess. And I mean blendy/mindmeld really just depends on alignment for which it is, so yes but also idk yknow

1 hour ago, Vorros said:

It doesn’t take much to figure that one out lol.

You'd be surprised :P.

1 hour ago, Vorros said:

Oh, and another thing. You called my reactions to both the deaths fake. Calling a reaction or argument fake is just about the easiest and least effective reasoning you could make other than “Gut” or “I don’t know”. I know this sounds hypocritical, but I’m not calling the argument fake. I’m saying that the argument is too easy to fake to be valid.

I did call that argument out myself as the weakest and tunneliest one, fwiw. I'm aware of that. And 'argument is too easy to be fake to be valid' is precisely why I voted xino D1 so I get that too :P.

1 hour ago, Vorros said:

There has been 1 wagon, and we don’t know if Conq is e or not. You can’t say that I look worse based on wagonomic if both wagons are v because then we all look bad. If Conq is bad then yes, everyone defending him and voting Illwei looks bad. But it’s too early to tell or base an accusation on.

Maybe wagonomics was the wrong term there but I just meant my Conq analysis post where I found you as a viable candidate for both alignments Conq can be, if that makes sense.

1 hour ago, Vorros said:

Like, no? If I was a black sister, then I’m taking any protection I could get because 1) I have a PM with my warder to further convince him I’m town, 2) I’d rather take the chance to kill a person who could channel because they are way more of a threat than my OWN warder, and 3) I would probably be in a healing bi/trifecta with my partners in a healing circle. Just what I would do in that situation. 

Mmm yeah this is fair. But like you said, could have been someone else. I think outside the slip there's enough for me to elim read if I take it out to still be voting you but I still think it has grounds for being true... maybe it's just like my pet idea that I don't want to give up :P. Kinda think this section of the response has a caught-for-the-wrong-reasons vibe but I know that's a tunnel on my part so do us both a favor and don't reply to that comment xD

 

I appreciate the perspective (and the readslist) but I don't think I'll move my vote at this present moment.

48 minutes ago, Devotary of Spontaneity said:

"Every other turn, you protect them. On off turns, you protect yourself." does seem like it's a Aes Sedai-Warder-Aes Sedai... pattern. If it's an action that a Warder has to manually submit every night, there's an increased chance the Warder could choose who to protect first.

I mean, I don't disagree about the pattern but I don't see how that implies which player the pattern starts with. Since I first read the rules my natural assumption was that on D1 (or N1, I guess) the Warder decides whether to protect themselves on odd turns or their Aes Sedai on odd turns, with the other getting even turns, and then it was passive from thenceforth on. Maybe I'm wrong about that but that was how I read it, and I suppose it wouldn't be right of me to elim read someone for reading it differently

I guess I thought it was obvious enough that it wasn't really possible to have been read differently.

Edited by Matrim's Dice
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14 minutes ago, Matrim's Dice said:

Maybe I'm wrong about that but that was how I read it, and I suppose it wouldn't be right of me to elim read someone for reading it differently

@The Unknown Novel how do Warders work? Do they choose who they protect first? Do they have to submit protect actions every night? Does protection use up one of their physical action slots?

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1 hour ago, Devotary of Spontaneity said:

@The Unknown Novel how do Warders work? Do they choose who they protect first? Do they have to submit protect actions every night? Does protection use up one of their physical action slots?

All of the above. Their protect is a physical action. It can only target two people, the Warder and the Aes Sedai. It can not target the same player two nights in a row.

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As for analysis: Wizard was one of two players that didn't vote C1. Usually elims don't want to narrow down groups that contain their members, and Shining is now the only player alive that didn't vote D1, so I'd lean village on them just for that.

I'm leaning towards village on Mat, mostly from his aggression toward Vorros.

I could be wrong about one of these two, in which case the elims probably had one vote on each primary train.

I'm still not a fan of Conquestor's D1, but the vote on Sart is pretty clearly genuine, because he tried to do it during the Night turn. I'd vote for him over either of the two players above, but he's not my first pick for today. I think regardless of Conquestor's alignment there were 2 elims (in a 3 elim world) voting on Illwei. This follows from my own alignment plus me already ruling out Mat and Shining, so one of the main trains would have 2 people, and I don't think both Sart and Xino are elim.

Between Sart and Xino, I'd lean elim more on Xino, just because Sart's take on Conquestor feels honest. I would like to hear his thoughts on the NK and on which of the non-Conquestor voters he finds suspicious.

Between Vorros, Luckspren, and Devotary, I like Luckspren's latest reads list, it aligns with my thoughts reasonably well while including a healthy suspicion towards yours truly. I already said that elim!Devotary feels a little weird because of the last-minute vote to break a tie that the elims would have known wasn't a tie. In an e!Conquestor world I find that vote even less likely. I'm having a hard time reading Vorros, but he slides into elim by default.

Hmm, I guess I think Conquestor, Vorros, and Xino are the elims if we have 3. If there are just 2, I'd bet the most on Xino.

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3 minutes ago, xinoehp512 said:

I think Luck/Conquestor are e/e.

I haven't been an elim yet, so I don't really know, but I feel like e!me wouldn't put that much effort into defending a teammate in-thread, precisely because of this suspicion. Besides, e!me would've known vote manip was happening and Conq wasn't in danger, so e!me probably wouldn't bother. 

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11 hours ago, Araris Valerian said:

Hmm, I guess I think Conquestor, Vorros, and Xino are the elims if we have 3. If there are just 2, I'd bet the most on Xino.

How do you feel about voting alongside Vorros?

I’ll probably be gone for five hours ish, but I’ll post again around then.

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