Long Game 88: Blood and Bloody Ashes!

[Devotary of Spontaneity]

25 minutes ago, Matrim's Dice said:

Having reread the previous cycles, Sart and Araris have interactions that look very unpaired

What Sart and Araris interactions look unpaired? Sart's throwaway vote for Araris D3 when it was clear Conq was going to be exed? Him announcing that he and Luck were an Aes Sedai and Warder pair before she could do so? Sart backing up Araris's claims of being weaveblocked D3 and sending him a PM N3? Claiming to have action scanned Araris N2 and not seen him take any physical actions? Araris saying that Sart pushing a non-conq vote D3 makes him more likely village? Saying that one of Sart and Xino is likely an elim, but probably Xino (only reasonable one on this list)? Sart can say that one of Araris or I is the Forsaken and that it's more likely Araris all he wants, but all that matters is this vote and Sart's made his choice clear.

[Mat]

1 hour ago, Devotary of Spontaneity said:

What Sart and Araris interactions look unpaired?

I was thinking of this, but yeah rereading D3 and N3 they look paired to me lol

And it's not what you asked, but a Sart/Vorros interaction that looks unpaired to me is here, and then on Araris' part I don't see a point for e!him posting this. Neither are super clearing on any part, though, and both of them had times where they lightly fought the Vorros exe (kind of, for Araris). Sart by jumping on Vorros trying to mech his way out of it, and Araris by pushing Shining to claim, which Vorros also advocated for. Which I still think was a bad idea and think it got Shining killed, but that's beside the point :P.

Araris

I'm back to not wanting to risk losing to a 2p team today, I really don't think e!Devo has another teammate- It wouldn't be Sart, and I don't think it's Luck.

Edited August 26, 2022 by Matrim's Dice

[Araris Valerian]

1 hour ago, Matrim's Dice said:

Araris by pushing Shining to claim, which Vorros also advocated for. Which I still think was a bad idea and think it got Shining killed, but that's beside the point :P.

Yeah, because we definitely haven't had any recent elim wins due to false Seeker claims. Nope. Not something that we would ever let by us in SE . I'll point out that my vote was on Vorros the entire time I had that discussion, and I never threatened to pull it off, only to vote you out the next day if Vorros flipped village.

I haven't really had any reason to think Luck is elim except for her last post, which reads like a cop-out of the discussion.

How does Sart putting me and Devo together in a POE make sense with him being on a team with either of us? If Sart and I are e/e, we just go along with the Conquestor vote, do something to hammer today (with us both being channelers, this is easy), and Bob's our uncle. Easy win. None of this "only Araris or Devo can be the Forsaken" stuff. I know that I've been repeating this a lot but nobody has given a response, except Devotary, who didn't address that Sart could just have avoided using the Forsaken to build a POE in the first place.

I'd also like to argue (likely my weakest argument, but worth making nonetheless) that I have a more plausible stat distribution than Devo does. I can channel Lightning without Linking (and in fact rolled nearly the best possible stats: 3,3,1,4,4), which fits with the canon of the Shepherd being the literal Dragon Reborn. I don't know Devo's distro but doubt she told Mat it was something that strong.

Edit: And apparently nobody has considered how busted it would be to have 2 elim channelers? Guaranteed -1 complexity on every available weave via linking seems quite strong for a team than already has a roleblock and a single guaranteed weave success every single turn.

Edit 2: And (yeah this is kinda IKYK) why, if Sart and I had been abusing that capability this whole game, would we (or me at least) not bring up the fact that it would be quite overpowered immediately when people starting calling us e/e?

Edit 3: Maybe I'm wrong about the Seeker thing? I thought Mat pulled a LyLo seeker gambit in a recent game but can't find it now. That thought was what prompted by D3 response, regardless of whether my memory was accurate.

Also, if Sart and I are elims together, we can just Shield Devo and double Compulsion to swing things to 3-1. I'm not sure if the odds would favor doing a 3rd Compulsion attempt, but that would also be an option. All those weaves would be complexity 2 with a Link, and one would automatically succeed via the Forsaken. So basically no chance that Devo's proposed village wins in this scenario.

Edited August 26, 2022 by Araris Valerian

[Luckspren]

4 hours ago, Araris Valerian said:

Luckspren, I would hope that the 50% loss chance if you are wrong about me would be enough to convince you to look at some of the argumentation. I’m also not sure why a Mat/Devo team doesn’t seem to have crossed your mind. Yeah, Mat has been pretty village aligned this game, but it’s at least another possibility that should lower your confidence that killing me today is 100% the safest thing to do. And Mat should likewise consider that a Luck/Devo team is possible. (I’m running on the assumption that y’all are both village, but Luck made me a bit less confident with her last post)

Even if I'm right about you, it's still at least a 50% loss chance, given the two tied lynches we'd have to get through to win this thing.

I'll look back through the arguments before rollover. 

A Mat/Devo team hasn't crossed my mind because I decided Mat is by far the most confirmed villager in my mind, and I'm just going to trust him unless I see convincing evidence he's an elim. 

I have no confidence that killing you is the safest thing to do. I think it's one of the less dangerous things to do, and there are no great options. 

 

3 hours ago, Matrim's Dice said:

Devotary

I guess the issue I'm having is that if I'm wrong about this, we're more likely to lose to a 2p team then if I'm wrong voting off Araris.

That's my argument

[Araris Valerian]

4 minutes ago, Luckspren said:

Even if I'm right about you, it's still at least a 50% loss chance, given the two tied lynches we'd have to get through to win this thing.

If I'm elim, like I put in my 3rd edit, Sart and I have a roughly 42% chance to control the vote entirely today (3 Compulsions plus a Shield, all linked, gives a 60-15=45% chance per weave of success), a roughly 41% chance of tying it (leading to a 50% chance of instantly winning). In the rather small chance that things don't go our way, Sart could still go for Compulsion next turn with a 40% success rate. So voting for me gives you at best ~30% odds of winning.

I'm gonna figure the odds in the scenario I've been arguing for, but I've gotta go right now.

[Luckspren]

On 8/25/2022 at 8:12 PM, Araris Valerian said:

It's Sart's fault that we are looking at the two of us this cycle. If he hadn't brought up the Forsaken thing, the POE would likely be wider today, and there'd be no reason for elim!me to force a 50-50 against you.

Sart didn't bring up the Forsaken thing. Who talked about it: Mat, you, Mat, me, you, Mat, me, me, you, Mat, and then Sart finally adds to the Forsaken discussion. I don't think that rules him out as your teammate.

 

VC

Devo (2): Araris, Luck, Sart, Mat, Mat

Araris (3): Devo, Mat, Luck, Mat, Mat

Sart (0): Luck

[Araris Valerian]

So if I'm village, and Devo is solo, the current votes will be a tie if Devo is Shielded, or my death if not. By myself I have a 40% chance to shield, and Sart could succeed both a 50% chance to break his block plus a 35% chance to shield. So there is about a 50% chance the vote becomes a tie, and a 50% chance Devo dies, ending the game. Otherwise (75% of the time), there will be another tie, with Devo winning 50%. So the village wins about 52% of the time in this case.

If I'm village and Devo has a partner then the village just loses.

And of course, in the other two scenarios, the vote today entirely decides things.

So if we assume both that there is a 0% chance Devo has a partner and that Devo versus me/Sart is 50-50, then voting me makes sense; it gives around a 75% chance of a village win. But the chance Devo has a partner is not 0, and I think I've made a solid case that Sart/me doesn't make sense as a team, because it would be an overpowered role combination making up 27% of the players.

Edit: @Luckspren I'm referring specifically to this post from D3:

On 8/20/2022 at 6:29 PM, Sart said:

Alright, time to do some role analysis. We definitely have an Elim Aes Sedai in the mix, considering that votes have vanished for the past 2 cycles. It's probably a Forsaken, but there's an unlikely chance that the Elim team is faking that for some reason. What that means is simple: I'm not voting for anyone who isn't an Aes Sedai. I'm going to assume that Aes Sedai have a paired Warder. I don't know if that's true in general, or if the Forsaken would have a Warder paired with them. In either case, the role list looks like this:

• Pair 1:
  • Shining Silhouette (Aes Sedai)
  • Matrim (Warder)
• Pair 2:
  • Conquestor (Aes Sedai)
  • Wandering Wizard (Warder)
• Pair 3:
  • Xino (Aes Sedai?)
  • One of Araris or Devo (Warder)
• Pair 4:
  • Sart (Aes Sedai)
  • Luckspren (Warder)
• Misc:
  • Vorros (Blademaster)
  • Illwei (Blademaster)
  • The other of Araris and Devo (Unknown)

By the way, yes, I am claiming to be an Aes Sedai. I can back up Xino's claim that Conquestor did not appear to take any physical actions, I also saw Araris take no physical actions last night as well. Let's wrap this up.

• @xinoehp512 Who is your Warder? I know it's Araris or Devo, so who is it?
• @Araris Valerian and @Devotary of Spontaneity What are your roles? I know one of you is a Warder. What is the other one claiming?

Devotary of Spontaneity. I saw you just posted. Are you Xino's Warder?

Edited August 27, 2022 by Araris Valerian

[Luckspren]

What's the most likely two-player elim team in your mind?

[Araris Valerian]

Just now, Luckspren said:

What's the most likely two-player elim team in your mind?

You and Devo, Devo is easy, you because so far it doesn't seem like you've considered many of the points I've tried to make this cycle.

[Mat]

Gonna try to reply to this line-by-line, my responses in bold orange. I also took out the parts of Araris' post that I have nothing to say about, which was only one paragraph about Luck I think.

2 hours ago, Araris Valerian said:

Yeah, because we definitely haven't had any recent elim wins due to false Seeker claims. Nope. Not something that we would ever let by us in SE . Sure, but I think that's a moot point because again it wasn't lylo and I or Shining would have just been killed. What is true is that you and Vorros both wanted Shining to claim, and I didn't, and he did, and was NKd. So. I'll point out that my vote was on Vorros the entire time I had that discussion, and I never threatened to pull it off, only to vote you out the next day if Vorros flipped village. Also NAI in my opinion since I'm not expecting the elims to have been real gung-ho about saving Vorros at that point.

How does Sart putting me and Devo together in a POE make sense with him being on a team with either of us? If Sart and I are e/e, we just go along with the Conquestor vote, do something to hammer today (with us both being channelers, this is easy), and Bob's our uncle. Easy win. None of this "only Araris or Devo can be the Forsaken" stuff. I know that I've been repeating this a lot but nobody has given a response, except Devotary, who didn't address that Sart could just have avoided using the Forsaken to build a POE in the first place. I responded to say that's an argument against Sart being teamed with Devo as much as it is with you, and you never addressed that. I agree with what Devo said about Sart not really having a ton of other options but you're not wrong that he's pushed it more than it might make sense for e!him. Though iirc Sart has no qualms to bussing or getting near bussing.

I'd also like to argue (likely my weakest argument, but worth making nonetheless) that I have a more plausible stat distribution than Devo does. I don't think you can argue you have a more plausible stat distro than Devo when you don't know what hers is, to be fair. I can channel Lightning without Linking (and in fact rolled nearly the best possible stats: 3,3,1,4,4), which fits with the canon of the Shepherd being the literal Dragon Reborn. I don't know Devo's distro but doubt she told Mat it was something that strong. Devo claimed 4,3,1,2,4 which is still pretty dang strong, it is in fact everything except for Lightning. I don't know whether I buy what you're arguing (that the Rand role should be able to channel Lightning) or what she's arguing (that Lightning is too strong regardless) more. But I think I'm leaning to the former.

Edit: And apparently nobody has considered how busted it would be to have 2 elim channelers? Guaranteed -1 complexity on every available weave via linking seems quite strong for a team than already has a roleblock and a single guaranteed weave success every single turn. If there's a single point to make me clear Sart it's the reminder that Linking exists >> Yeah you're not wrong I just completely didn't consider that.

Edit 2: And (yeah this is kinda IKYK) why, if Sart and I had been abusing that capability this whole game, would we (or me at least) not bring up the fact that it would be quite overpowered immediately when people starting calling us e/e? True, but if you're about to die I could see it being a strategy you went for. And the IKYK.

Edit 3: Maybe I'm wrong about the Seeker thing? I thought Mat pulled a LyLo seeker gambit in a recent game but can't find it now. That thought was what prompted by D3 response, regardless of whether my memory was accurate. I don't think I did, my elim gambit run was when I was RBd while submitting the kill and that was different. I kinda just thought you meant Meerkat but that wasn't an elim gambit :P. My first point in this post still stands though.

Smhhhhhhhhhhh xD

Devotary

I no longer see a Sart/Forsaken team as valid, though I guess it's possible there... isn't... a Forsaken? Though I think two Shepherd claims implies there is, plus the missing votes. Idk what else they could be, anyway. Myrddraal, but again the missing votes. And I doubt Sart/Araris planned far enough ahead to lay the groundwork for an argument against their teaming like that, or maybe I'm overestimating how much planning that would take to begin with.

Probably not moving this vote, but uh, don't count on it :P. I'd recommend to Luck that she switches so that we have the best chance of fighting Compulsion, and that she considers Araris' post since I think it makes a lot of sense. I normally can gut read Araris pretty well and I haven't really felt anything especially evil from him this game, and I think village reading Sart's posting (early game, anyway) for the first time literally ever should count for something xD

Edited August 27, 2022 by Matrim's Dice

[Araris Valerian]

This is mostly for Luck, who is still voting for me, but I don't think this really addresses what I've said (or been trying to say):

10 minutes ago, Matrim's Dice said:

I responded to say that's an argument against Sart being teamed with Devo as much as it is with you, and you never addressed that. I agree with what Devo said about Sart not really having a ton of other options but you're not wrong that he's pushed it more than it might make sense for e!him. Though iirc Sart has no qualms to bussing or getting near bussing.

Yeah, this is an argument that Sart is village. And his action claims don't fit very well with Devo's, making her elim. Or at least that's the conclusion he reached earlier in the cycle.

Also, Sart created a POE out of thin air with his role analysis. He could have just... not. Nobody was coming after either me or Devo. Devo saying he doesn't have a choice is predicated on him doing the role analysis in the first place. If we were teamed, he'd do no such thing, we'd split the village today and then hammer with Compulsion to win.

[Luckspren]

25 minutes ago, Matrim's Dice said:

I'd recommend to Luck that she switches so that we have the best chance of fighting Compulsion, and that she considers Araris' post since I think it makes a lot of sense. I normally can gut read Araris pretty well and I haven't really felt anything especially evil from him this game, and I think village reading Sart's posting (early game, anyway) for the first time literally ever should count for something xD

The Sart/Araris team that my Araris vote was based on is not looking so likely (here:)

10 minutes ago, Araris Valerian said:

Sart created a POE out of thin air with his role analysis. He could have just... not. Nobody was coming after either me or Devo. Devo saying he doesn't have a choice is predicated on him doing the role analysis in the first place. If we were teamed, he'd do no such thing, we'd split the village today and then hammer with Compulsion to win.

So... yeah... Araris is making sense, Mat is making sense and I trust him, I have a million IKYKs and doubts chasing each other around my brain, but unified village is our best shot at this. Devo, mostly because Mat asked me to. 

I'll check back in before rollover, Luck out. 

Edited August 27, 2022 by Luckspren

[Mat]

1 minute ago, Luckspren said:

because Mat asked me to. 

I’ll be the first to say, if that’s the singular reason, bad idea  I hardly trust myself half the time so idk

I do think Devo is a better kill rn though 

Edited August 27, 2022 by Matrim's Dice

[Devotary of Spontaneity]

29 minutes ago, Araris Valerian said:

Also, Sart created a POE out of thin air with his role analysis. He could have just... not. Nobody was coming after either me or Devo.

If he hadn't claimed, Luck would have. Once she says that she's Sart's Warder, we'd have gotten the Forsaken narrowed down to you, me, and Xino anyway. Sart saying it first doesn't put you in more danger, it just makes him look better.

46 minutes ago, Matrim's Dice said:

Probably not moving this vote, but uh, don't count on it :P. I'd recommend to Luck that she switches so that we have the best chance of fighting Compulsion, and that she considers Araris' post since I think it makes a lot of sense.

So you're just accepting defeat at this point. We can still beat Forsaken Araris + Channeler Sart since linking doesn't make weaves any more likely than two people doing them separately, but assuming that if they're evil it's not worth trying is definitely going to make us lose.

[Mat]

Not accepting defeat, from my PoV I don’t know who’s evil. Linking does increase the chance of the weave succeeding due to the complexity decreasing. 

@Sart what are your stats?

[Araris Valerian]

30 minutes ago, Devotary of Spontaneity said:

If he hadn't claimed, Luck would have. Once she says that she's Sart's Warder, we'd have gotten the Forsaken narrowed down to you, me, and Xino anyway. Sart saying it first doesn't put you in more danger, it just makes him look better.

So Luck would have spontaneously revealed her and Sart's roles to the thread because... she felt like it?

[Devotary of Spontaneity]

7 minutes ago, Matrim's Dice said:

Not accepting defeat, from my PoV I don’t know who’s evil. Linking does increase the chance of the weave succeeding due to the complexity decreasing. 

It very much looks like you're saying "Well, if Sart and Araris are evil we've already lost so there's no point voting for either of them," when this is not true. Linking compulsion say has a 60% chance of success, two players using compulsion separately has a 16% chance of two successes plus a 48% chance of one success, which is more effective than linking.

1 minute ago, Araris Valerian said:

So Luck would have spontaneously revealed her and Sart's roles to the thread because... she felt like it?

To narrow down the Forsaken candidates.

Edited August 27, 2022 by Devotary of Spontaneity

[Araris Valerian]

4 minutes ago, Devotary of Spontaneity said:

To narrow down the Forsaken candidates.

Which nobody was trying to do until Sart brought up the issue in the first place.

[Devotary of Spontaneity]

7 minutes ago, Araris Valerian said:

Which nobody was trying to do until Sart brought up the issue in the first place.

Because only Sart and Luck and you I suppose knew that Sart and Luck could be removed from consideration, and without that there were too many potential Forsaken to try narrowing it down as a voting strategy.

[Sart]

30 minutes ago, Matrim's Dice said:

Not accepting defeat, from my PoV I don’t know who’s evil. Linking does increase the chance of the weave succeeding due to the complexity decreasing. 

@Sart what are your stats?

Absolute crem. 2 4 3 0 4. I have no Air, which prevents me from doing most of the weaves in this game.

[Mat]

37 minutes ago, Devotary of Spontaneity said:

It very much looks like you're saying "Well, if Sart and Araris are evil we've already lost so there's no point voting for either of them," when this is not true. Linking compulsion say has a 60% chance of success, two players using compulsion separately has a 16% chance of two successes plus a 48% chance of one success, which is more effective than linking.

I don’t think Sart and Araris are evil together anymore. Not linking might be more effective probability-wise but that doesn’t make it more likely there’s two elim channelers.

[Luckspren]

1 hour ago, Matrim's Dice said:

I’ll be the first to say, if that’s the singular reason, bad idea  I hardly trust myself half the time so idk

I do think Devo is a better kill rn though 

I don't trust myself either, and we need to vote together for any chance of killing an elim. 

 

1 hour ago, Araris Valerian said:

So Luck would have spontaneously revealed her and Sart's roles to the thread because... she felt like it?

I wouldn't have claimed unless one of us was about to get lynched.

[Devotary of Spontaneity]

53 minutes ago, Matrim's Dice said:

Not linking might be more effective probability-wise but that doesn’t make it more likely there’s two elim channelers.

Araris and Sart is the only team that makes sense to me but if you don't believe the elim team would be distributed that way then there's nothing I can say to that.

[Mat]

Sorry if I blew this, btw

Maybe that doesn’t need to be said but I want to say it anyway

[The Unknown Ajah]

Cycle closed fifteen minutes ago.