Elandera Posted August 25, 2022 Report Share Posted August 25, 2022 Cycle should have closed 30 minutes ago. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Unknown Ajah Posted August 25, 2022 Author Report Share Posted August 25, 2022 LG88 Day Four: TBD Sorry, still no writeup. (%) Xinoehp512 was killed! They were an Aes Sedai of the White Tower. Things to Note: The player with the most votes must have at least two to get exed. PMs are an action! Do not send any, I will be sending them for you. This cycle will end on August 26th at 10:00 PM Mountain Time. Rules doc: https://docs.google.com/document/d/1mrx-Nslg3G5WpPPOtz83V79PSAK-znQF5_LzUtTOHiA/edit?usp=drivesdk Player List: Spoiler Xinoehp512 Aes Sedai Conquestor Anenti Aes Sedai @Araris Valerian Arenta The Wandering Wizard Warder @Devotary of Spontaneity Diesis @Matrim's Dice Maytrim Sedai Vorros Verin Sedai Blademaster Illwei Blademaster Shining Silhouette Aes Sedai @Sart @Luckspren Lelea Sedai Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mat Posted August 25, 2022 Report Share Posted August 25, 2022 (edited) Since xino was a Forsaken candidate for me that’s a… weird kill :P. I changed my mind about Araris/Devo being e/e, I don’t think it’s likely that two elims were both RBd the same turn when one likely came from Vorros and I don’t see the point behind conceiving that double lie. That almost forces me to assume Sart and one of Araris/Devo as the team if I continue to trust Luck, which I do still feel good about. Maybe that’s a mistake but dang it Luck deserves to win if she’s elim at this point, the sheer effort she’s done isn’t gonna make me vote her anytime soon :P. And yet like I still hesitate to vote Sart for some reason Edited August 25, 2022 by Matrim's Dice Probably it’s that I’ve blown more than a few lylos before 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Araris Valerian Posted August 25, 2022 Report Share Posted August 25, 2022 4 hours ago, Matrim's Dice said: Since xino was a Forsaken candidate for me that’s a… weird kill :P. I guess I got everyone so focused on accounting for my physical actions that the elims really didn't want me to be able to do that? I also promised a roleclaim, so I'm the shepherd. Never did get a weave off, though not entirely for a lack of trying. Lightning just has really bad odds unless you link (N1 I tried Vorros but also PMed Devo, which I forgot would lower the odds further, N2 I went for Conq). I was hoping the elims would burn a kill on me, but I think Mat/Sart focused on me too much last turn for that to happen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sart Posted August 25, 2022 Report Share Posted August 25, 2022 Alright. Araris claims Shepherd. Not sure I buy it, but, to his credit, he did send a PM to me. @Devotary of Spontaneity What is your claim? We need info, and I don't see any reason to keep it secret at this point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mat Posted August 25, 2022 Report Share Posted August 25, 2022 (edited) I’ll save Devo the trouble, she claimed Shepherd to me in PMs yesterday, and also claims to have never gotten a weave off At least we’ve narrowed it down to two >> Edited August 25, 2022 by Matrim's Dice Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Araris Valerian Posted August 25, 2022 Report Share Posted August 25, 2022 Devotary. That makes things easy for me, at least. Of course, shepherd is really the only viable role claim at this point anyways, since the other two roles would have used their abilities by now. The Xino kill makes more sense then, because it blocks me from confirming my 2 night actions. I’m not sure it makes a ton of sense for e!me to send in that kill though unless it would be for IKYK shenanigans. Does anyone want to claim the Weaveblock on me from D3? I don’t really think I can confirm that I was indeed blocked, but it fits with the 5 vote stack meaning that a Forsaken wouldn’t need to use Compulsion. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mat Posted August 25, 2022 Report Share Posted August 25, 2022 2 minutes ago, Araris Valerian said: Does anyone want to claim the Weaveblock on me from D3? What weave did you try to perform on D3? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Araris Valerian Posted August 25, 2022 Report Share Posted August 25, 2022 (edited) 18 minutes ago, Matrim's Dice said: What weave did you try to perform on D3? None. I was wanting to blast somebody, which is a night only action. But Shielding blocks for 2 turns. Edit: And apparently you get GM notification Edited August 25, 2022 by Araris Valerian Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Devotary of Spontaneity Posted August 25, 2022 Report Share Posted August 25, 2022 1 hour ago, Sart said: What is your claim? We need info, and I don't see any reason to keep it secret at this point. Yes, I'm the Shepard so Araris. I saved my weave up to N3 to use Harden Air on Araris and then it didn't work but I can still do something today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mat Posted August 25, 2022 Report Share Posted August 25, 2022 Actually wait, not to be extremely pessimistic or anything, but like, if we’re at 3-2 and there’s a Forsaken then we’ve already lost :P. I mean, they can just use compulsion and swing the exe their way even if every villager votes correctly. That is, unless Devo and Araris are both weaveblocked. So I guess what I’m getting at is, that should be something that is attempted here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Luckspren Posted August 25, 2022 Report Share Posted August 25, 2022 Say the village is on one side and the elims on the other. E (3): V, V, V V (2): F, E Forsaken doesn't count, but moves vote, so now it's E (2): V, V, V V (2): F, E, V I don't think we necessarily lose here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Araris Valerian Posted August 25, 2022 Report Share Posted August 25, 2022 I can just try to Weaveblock Devo. It’s only a 40% unless someone links with me, but that’s not terrible. @The Unknown Novel, can a Weaveblock stop the Forsaken guaranteed weave? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Unknown Ajah Posted August 25, 2022 Author Report Share Posted August 25, 2022 Just now, Araris Valerian said: I can just try to Weaveblock Devo. It’s only a 40% unless someone links with me, but that’s not terrible. @The Unknown Novel, can a Weaveblock stop the Forsaken guaranteed weave? Yes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mat Posted August 25, 2022 Report Share Posted August 25, 2022 (edited) 34 minutes ago, Luckspren said: I don't think we necessarily lose here. Hmm, yeah. Forgot about the Forsaken’s own vote not counting somehow :P. Still though a coin flip isn’t ideal by any means. Leaning towards Araris but I definitely will want to reread some things before committing to that. Sart, Luck, where are your heads at? Edit: Actually though I do think Sart legitimately might be the best kill here if we think two elims, who else would be Araris/Devo’s teammate. Edited August 25, 2022 by Matrim's Dice Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Luckspren Posted August 25, 2022 Report Share Posted August 25, 2022 (edited) Probably Devo but with no confidence. Writing up a big analysis post. @Sart opinion please Edit: Devo because Araris is such an obvious Forsaken candidate that I don't believe it Edited August 25, 2022 by Luckspren Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mat Posted August 25, 2022 Report Share Posted August 25, 2022 39 minutes ago, Luckspren said: Edit: Devo because Araris is such an obvious Forsaken candidate that I don't believe it What about Araris is more obvious than Devo? They seem about the same to me Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Devotary of Spontaneity Posted August 25, 2022 Report Share Posted August 25, 2022 I can try to weaveblock Araris but the only one who could potentially link with me is Sart, and he's better off doing his own Shield if he's a villager with 3+ Spirit. If Araris and Sart are both elim Aes Sedai then things don't look good vote-wise. Solo Araris is beatable. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Luckspren Posted August 25, 2022 Report Share Posted August 25, 2022 16 minutes ago, Matrim's Dice said: What about Araris is more obvious than Devo? They seem about the same to me Araris is the only player who was in all the vote trains where a vote went missing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mat Posted August 25, 2022 Report Share Posted August 25, 2022 9 minutes ago, Luckspren said: Araris is the only player who was in all the vote trains where a vote went missing. That seems like a good reason for me not to move my vote, then. Occam’s Razor and all. I never know how to apply that but like I don’t think I can have that be a reason for his innocence. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Luckspren Posted August 25, 2022 Report Share Posted August 25, 2022 16 minutes ago, Matrim's Dice said: That seems like a good reason for me not to move my vote, then. Occam’s Razor and all. I never know how to apply that but like I don’t think I can have that be a reason for his innocence. I'm assuming Forsaken Araris would've covered his tracks at least one of the three days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Devotary of Spontaneity Posted August 25, 2022 Report Share Posted August 25, 2022 5 minutes ago, Luckspren said: I'm assuming Forsaken Araris would've covered his tracks at least one of the three days. There was no practical reason for Araris to use Compulsion on any of the three days and plenty of other day weaves he could have been using instead. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Araris Valerian Posted August 25, 2022 Report Share Posted August 25, 2022 1 hour ago, Matrim's Dice said: Edit: Actually though I do think Sart legitimately might be the best kill here if we think two elims, who else would be Araris/Devo’s teammate. I really hope Sart isn’t elim, because then they have 2 channelers (Forsaken don’t get Warders). But also I don’t think he makes sense as a teammate with me based on the D1 voting. Why vote twice (even if one is fake) to oppose a v!Illwei train? Honestly, this is a bit of a bummer. I was looking forward to solving today, and now nobody cares what I say. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Luckspren Posted August 25, 2022 Report Share Posted August 25, 2022 1 minute ago, Araris Valerian said: Forsaken don’t get Warders Was this confirmed? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mat Posted August 25, 2022 Report Share Posted August 25, 2022 (edited) 2 minutes ago, Araris Valerian said: Honestly, this is a bit of a bummer. I was looking forward to solving today, and now nobody cares what I say. I care. Helps me figure out who to vote. Do you think that a solo Forsaken is more likely? Edit: @Luckspren it was Edited August 25, 2022 by Matrim's Dice Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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