Long Game 88: Blood and Bloody Ashes!

[Conquestor]

I apologize to everyone... Especially Mat, Devo, and Sart. Mat I'm still not sure about you, but I guess that some of my stuff was coming out of left field. That same apology goes out to Sart. I wasn't meaning to sound crazy. Part of it was me trying to defend myself and the other was me actually showing off where I thought Mat was making wrong points. I know that everything I said can't be true and a lot of it was just theory. In the end though, most of what we say in these games is theory anyway. Also I apologize @Devotary of SpontaneityI need to be more careful, I did the same thing with Luckspren.

I've known I was going to die since the last night cycle, so I accepted my death then. I just thought that I'd get my last few points across. Well, Mat I just don't know about you, but I feel pretty confident about Devo, so I guess I'll put my dying vote there. Does anyone have any last questions for me? 

[Mat]

5 minutes ago, Conquestor said:

I've known I was going to die since the last night cycle, so I accepted my death then

It felt like you didn’t, but that’s okay  I think that’s a good thing. And I don’t think you need to apologize; you’re just playing the game like the rest of us :P.

[Conquestor]

48 minutes ago, Matrim's Dice said:

It felt like you didn’t, but that’s okay  I think that’s a good thing. And I don’t think you need to apologize; you’re just playing the game like the rest of us :P.

Just because I accepted it doesn't mean I wasn't going to go down without a fight! 

[Elandera]

I believe the cycle closed 15 minutes ago. TUN should be around shortly.

[The Unknown Ajah]

Night Three will go up at normal rollover time tonight, but you'll still get the full 48 hours from there, so Day four will get posted on the 24th.

[Mat]

@The Unknown Novel

[The Unknown Ajah]

LG88 Night Three: Dying and Watching 

Writeup to come maybe.

(%)

Conquestor was executed! He was an Aes Sedai.

Votecount:

Conquestor(4): Devo, Xino, Araris, Matrim, Luckspren 

Devotary(1): Conquestor 

Araris(1): Sart

Things to Note:

• This is a night turn. You may not vote!

• PMs are an action! Do not send any, I will be sending them for you.

• This cycle will end on August 24th at 10:00 PM Mountain Time.

Rules doc:

https://docs.google.com/document/d/1mrx-Nslg3G5WpPPOtz83V79PSAK-znQF5_LzUtTOHiA/edit?usp=drivesdk

Player List:

Spoiler

1. @xinoehp512
2. Conquestor Anenti Aes Sedai 
3. @Araris Valerian Arenta
4. The Wandering Wizard Warder 
5. @Devotary of Spontaneity Diesis
6. @Matrim's Dice Maytrim Sedai 
7. Vorros Verin Sedai Blademaster 
8. Illwei Blademaster 
9. Shining Silhouette  Aes Sedai 
10. @Sart
11. @Luckspren Lelea Sedai

 

Edited August 23, 2022 by The Unknown Novel

[Mat]

I stayed up too late for that flip >>

No idea what Vorros was doing D1 but he got a villager killed I guess, I’ll look at worlds tomorrow and come to a better conclusion for exlo.

@The Unknown Novel can we get numbers for the VC?

[The Unknown Ajah]

1 hour ago, Matrim's Dice said:

I stayed up too late for that flip >>

No idea what Vorros was doing D1 but he got a villager killed I guess, I’ll look at worlds tomorrow and come to a better conclusion for exlo.

@The Unknown Novel can we get numbers for the VC?

Yep, just polished everything up.

[Araris Valerian]

Well, Sart moves up in the polls for strongly pushing for a non-Conquestor vote last turn. Especially since his line of reasoning seems odd to be coming from an elim.

[Sart]

I tried to warn you guys. Considering that another vote vanished, we can only draw one conclusion. There is a Forsaken among us. There are only two possibilities: Araris or Devo. So basically, we need you to claim now.

[Mat]

Yeah, I’m with Sart on that. I guess the good news is that if it’s a two person elim team it’s most likely Araris/Devo anyway, and if it’s one it’s not exlo tomorrow. So there’s that.

xino’s still a possibility though, now that Conq flipped green. It’d be great if we could get traces on those three at the very least but like I’m not expecting to win by scan cause that’d be lame 

Edited August 23, 2022 by Matrim's Dice

[Araris Valerian]

I'm not planning on submitting any actions tonight. I'll roleclaim during the next day, but I don't see any advantage to doing it now instead of then. Same goes for Devotary; if either of us is one of the confirmed village roles, it doesn't make sense to claim and give the elims a chance to mess with us.

37 minutes ago, Matrim's Dice said:

I guess the good news is that if it’s a two person elim team it’s most likely Araris/Devo anyway,

What's the justification for this? In particular, why would e!Devotary vote last-minute on a v-v train during D1, especially one the elims knew the outcome of? (though I feel like Devo or someone else did something like that in the past specifically to throw people off)

I think one of Sart/Xino is elim, just because elims generally prefer to split their votes. And Mat/Luck are the two people that didn't vote on a contending person D1. Xino seems to fit the bill of a Forsaken. And then I would put either Mat or Luck as the last elim.

Edit: Or I guess I could create 2 PMs? That might be helpful for confirming that I'm not sending in kills.

Edited August 23, 2022 by Araris Valerian

[Mat]

51 minutes ago, Araris Valerian said:

I'll roleclaim during the next day, but I don't see any advantage to doing it now instead of then. Same goes for Devotary; if either of us is one of the confirmed village roles, it doesn't make sense to claim and give the elims a chance to mess with us

That’s fair, I think. But if you trust someone enough to PM them I think that’d be best, for accountability reasons. Like if you can take a provable action tonight and claim it before you do it, that kind of thing.

51 minutes ago, Araris Valerian said:

What's the justification for this? In particular, why would e!Devotary vote last-minute on a v-v train during D1, especially one the elims knew the outcome of? (though I feel like Devo or someone else did something like that in the past specifically to throw people off)

Yeah, exactly. It’s a null vote at this point, Devo always votes last minute, I don’t think that’s a valid reason for a village read for me. The justification kinda boils down to there not being many other options— I still don’t believe e!Luck posts the way they have been, especially the extensive Conq case summary on D1, and I think Sart is village off of yesterday and the mechanic solving. Though I’m open to it being him and the Forsaken, in that case, tomorrow he’d be pushing the one of you/Devo who’s the villager. xino’s been inactive and it’s not me, so that leaves you and Devo.

51 minutes ago, Araris Valerian said:

I think one of Sart/Xino is elim, just because elims generally prefer to split their votes. And Mat/Luck are the two people that didn't vote on a contending person D1. Xino seems to fit the bill of a Forsaken. And then I would put either Mat or Luck as the last elim.

Edit: Or I guess I could create 2 PMs? That might be helpful for confirming that I'm not sending in kills.

That’s also why I’m not entirely discounting Sart. It’s not an outlandish play to vote outside of Conq for village cred. But I very much doubt xino’s the Forsaken; a vote has disappeared off the trains even when he hasn’t voted iirc. Though I might be wrong about that. Did xino claim? Actually yeah xino/Sart with xino as the Forsaken makes sense to me. Hmm.

The PM thing likely isn’t as helpful as you think it is, you could PM one villager, submit the kill, and say the other person you PMd is your teammate and both people would ‘confirm’.

Edited August 23, 2022 by Matrim's Dice

[Araris Valerian]

18 minutes ago, Matrim's Dice said:

The PM thing likely isn’t as helpful as you think it is, you could PM one villager, submit the kill, and say the other person you PMd is your teammate and both people would ‘confirm’.

There’s actually any easy way around this; PMs can contain more than 2 people.

[Mat]

Just now, Araris Valerian said:

There’s actually any easy way around this; PMs can contain more than 2 people.

Only with a specific weave, but yes.

[Araris Valerian]

Just now, Matrim's Dice said:

Only with a specific weave, but yes.

Oh. Well, I’ll do one with Sart, since he wants me dead. And one with Xino, since I want him dead. I would do one with you but I already did that. And then someone can roleblock me or something if they want. 

[Sart]

4 minutes ago, Araris Valerian said:

Oh. Well, I’ll do one with Sart, since he wants me dead. And one with Xino, since I want him dead. I would do one with you but I already did that. And then someone can roleblock me or something if they want. 

Obvious problem is if Xino or I die. You could claim to have sent one, but actually sent the kill instead.

[Araris Valerian]

2 minutes ago, Sart said:

Obvious problem is if Xino or I die. You could claim to have sent one, but actually sent the kill instead.

Well, I’m vaguely suspicious of both of you, so that isn’t a total loss . In fact, I’m fairly confident that one of the two of you is elim based on D1 voting, so that would be an excellent place for a kill to go.

[Devotary of Spontaneity]

43 minutes ago, Matrim's Dice said:

That’s also why I’m not entirely discounting Sart. It’s not an outlandish play to vote outside of Conq for village cred. But I very much doubt xino’s the Forsaken; a vote has disappeared off the trains even when he hasn’t voted iirc. Though I might be wrong about that. Did xino claim? Actually yeah xino/Sart with xino as the Forsaken makes sense to me. Hmm.

The PM thing likely isn’t as helpful as you think it is, you could PM one villager, submit the kill, and say the other person you PMd is your teammate and both people would ‘confirm’.

Xino's voted every cycle, so he can't be cleared of being a Forsaken for that. Sart is only an elim with Luck or Forsaken Xino.

PMing one person and killing a villager would at least stop Forsaken!Araris from using weaves, which would make it easier to target him with trace or harden air.

31 minutes ago, Araris Valerian said:

And then someone can roleblock me or something if they want. 

Roleblocks stop PMs from going through, and there'd be no way to tell whether you submitted PMs or the kill, except that nobody would die. Sart and Xino are the only claimed roleblockers and even if they're village they don't have guaranteed success.

[Araris Valerian]

1 hour ago, Devotary of Spontaneity said:

PMing one person and killing a villager would at least stop Forsaken!Araris from using weaves, which would make it easier to target him with trace or harden air.

Someone weaveblocked me, so that doesn’t really mean much. I don’t think the 100% Forsaken success bypasses that.

[Devotary of Spontaneity]

1 hour ago, Araris Valerian said:

Someone weaveblocked me, so that doesn’t really mean much. I don’t think the 100% Forsaken success bypasses that.

More saying that people can only take one physical action if they use weaves, so you couldn't send a PM, kill someone, and use weaves.

[Sart]

Okay, was re-reading the thread, and this immediately jumped out at me.

I think this is an elim slip. If we're really dealing with a 2 person team, then Devo saying Forsaken + Blademaster might be the actual composition of the elim team. After all, those are the two roles we know exist. Further, it's surprising that she immediately jumped to Bladesmaster as the second Elim role. Wouldn't the other elim specific role make more sense, or even just a Warder? This seems really off to me.

[Mat]

7 minutes ago, Sart said:

If we're really dealing with a 2 person team, then Devo saying Forsaken + Blademaster might be the actual composition of the elim team. After all, those are the two roles we know exist. Further, it's surprising that she immediately jumped to Bladesmaster as the second Elim role. Wouldn't the other elim specific role make more sense, or even just a Warder? This seems really off to me.

That just looks like a guess to me :P. For a two person team that guess makes sense, I’d said as much myself. e!me making a distro guess would specifically not say exactly what it is, anyway, but there’s nothing notable there for me.

Also, we technically don’t know that there’s a Forsaken but I do think there is. Or at least the elims really want us to think there is.

[Devotary of Spontaneity]

1 hour ago, Sart said:

Further, it's surprising that she immediately jumped to Bladesmaster as the second Elim role. Wouldn't the other elim specific role make more sense, or even just a Warder?

Blademaster specifically because they (were supposed to) have an extra life, which would balance out a smaller team. Myrddraal was just a much worse Blademaster until the rules were changed.