Long Game 88: Blood and Bloody Ashes!

[Araris Valerian]

9 minutes ago, Sart said:

Alright, time to do some role analysis. We definitely have an Elim Aes Sedai in the mix, considering that votes have vanished for the past 2 cycles. It's probably a Forsaken, but there's an unlikely chance that the Elim team is faking that for some reason. What that means is simple: I'm not voting for anyone who isn't an Aes Sedai. I'm going to assume that Aes Sedai have a paired Warder. I don't know if that's true in general, or if the Forsaken would have a Warder paired with them. In either case, the role list looks like this:

• Pair 1:
  • Shining Silhouette (Aes Sedai)
  • Matrim (Warder)
• Pair 2:
  • Conquestor (Aes Sedai)
  • Wandering Wizard (Warder)
• Pair 3:
  • Xino (Aes Sedai?)
  • One of Araris or Devo (Warder)
• Pair 4:
  • Sart (Aes Sedai)
  • Luckspren (Warder)
• Misc:
  • Vorros (Blademaster)
  • Illwei (Blademaster)
  • The other of Araris and Devo (Unknown)

By the way, yes, I am claiming to be an Aes Sedai. I can back up Xino's claim that Conquestor did not appear to take any physical actions, I also saw Araris take no physical actions last night as well. Let's wrap this up.

• @xinoehp512 Who is your Warder? I know it's Araris or Devo, so who is it?
• @Araris Valerian and @Devotary of Spontaneity What are your roles? I know one of you is a Warder. What is the other one claiming?

Devotary of Spontaneity. I saw you just posted. Are you Xino's Warder?

I'm not claiming.

Looking back at D1, Vorros was pushing back against the Conquestor votes, and the two of them also voted together, so I agree that them being e/e makes sense. Also noticed Illwei pointing out that Xino being elim doesn't make a ton of sense, and I think I agree. Xino voted on Conquestor during D1, and then Vorros voted for Xino last cycle. Since I currently village read Mat and Luck, that puts Sart as the last elim, since I doubt the entire elim team (if Devo and Conq are both elim) voted Illwei D1.

[Mat]

Why are you assuming there aren’t unbonded Aes Sedai, Sart? I guess you probably don’t have an answer to that.

Sart voting Devo definitely implies he’s teamed with Conq, yeah. And we should have room to reconsider if Conq does flip green. I’ll look at that later.

Edited August 20, 2022 by Matrim's Dice

[Sart]

41 minutes ago, Araris Valerian said:

I'm not claiming.

Looking back at D1, Vorros was pushing back against the Conquestor votes, and the two of them also voted together, so I agree that them being e/e makes sense. Also noticed Illwei pointing out that Xino being elim doesn't make a ton of sense, and I think I agree. Xino voted on Conquestor during D1, and then Vorros voted for Xino last cycle. Since I currently village read Mat and Luck, that puts Sart as the last elim, since I doubt the entire elim team (if Devo and Conq are both elim) voted Illwei D1.

I see. Devotary of Spontaneity. Araris Valerian

34 minutes ago, Matrim's Dice said:

Why are you assuming there aren’t unbonded Aes Sedai, Sart? I guess you probably don’t have an answer to that.

Sart voting Devo definitely implies he’s teamed with Conq, yeah. And we should have room to reconsider if Conq does flip green. I’ll look at that later.

That is a flaw in this analysis. I was presuming that, and after getting GM clarification, that's not a great assumption. I forgot about the Red Ajah not bonding anyone. However, I did get an interesting piece of information. The Forsaken is not bonded to a Warder. We know Wizard had to be bonded with someone, and no one's counter claimed Conquestor's claim. In addition, there have been votes missing for the past two rounds. If the elim team doesn't have a Forsaken, there's only a 16% chance of them being able to fake that, and presuming that a vote vanishes this cycle, that chance rapidly approaches zero.

So, role analysis. Luck and I are bonded. Presuming you're telling the truth, Silhouette and Mat were bonded. Given the lack of CC, Conq and Wizard were bonded as well. Where's the Forsaken? It can only be Xino, Devo, or Araris. Xino is claiming Aes Sedai. If they have a Warder, it's whoever isn't their Warder. If Xino doesn't have a Warder, it's one of those three. Xino was getting voted out by Vorros, so I doubt it's them. Devo hasn't claimed yet, but I would really appreciate it. Araris is refusing to. I'm going to vote on the person who isn't telling us anything.

[Devotary of Spontaneity]

1 hour ago, Sart said:

By the way, yes, I am claiming to be an Aes Sedai. I can back up Xino's claim that Conquestor did not appear to take any physical actions, I also saw Araris take no physical actions last night as well. Let's wrap this up.

So to confirm you didn't take any physical actions last night and can't back up Conq's claim to have roleblocked you? I can claim if Conq flips green but see no reason to do so otherwise.

Sart/Conq likely has Sart as the Forsaken given his D1 vote but I can see solo Forsaken Conq.

[Sart]

Just now, Devotary of Spontaneity said:

So to confirm you didn't take any physical actions last night and can't back up Conq's claim to have roleblocked you? I can claim if Conq flips green but see no reason to do so otherwise.

Sart/Conq likely has Sart as the Forsaken given his D1 vote but I can see solo Forsaken Conq.

I did not take any Physical actions. I Traced 4 people, only getting results for Araris and Conq. Again, same question. Who is the Forsaken? I'm bonded, Conq was bonded. We're out of contention. What is your role?

[Mat]

Sart only has a point if there's a Forsaken which I'm not really certain of, all the manip can be explained by other means. For all we know Araris is the Amyrlin, and frankly right now I'm more interested in voting by reads rather than mech assumptions. And I know Vorros' D1 makes Conq look really bad.

I think it's interesting Sart's voting someone he says could not have submitted a kill-- @Sart, where do you think the third elim is, then? Who submitted the kill?

Also not that I don't believe you since that'd be just about the easiest lie to uncover on the planet but @The Unknown Novel can the Forsaken be bonded to a Warder?

Trying to remember if there were any circumstances around Conq's claim that would allow for it to be fake, and I don't really think so. Only if his teammate was Wiz's Aes Sedai, and that obviously wouldn't be Sart since he's allegedly bonded to Luckspren (whom I'd like to confirm that, regardless of the fact that again there's basically no way that's just a lie). I suppose xino, but only if xino's just in bus mode for some reason.

Actually, if we're talking about the Amyrlin-- Conq could be an elim Amyrlin, instead of the Forsaken, I think. Though that'd be a two person team balance-wise I think.

EDIT: Ok, say we misexe Conq, the ratio worse-case would be 4-2 afterwards which assuming one kill at night would lead to a 3-2 day which is fine. We do have breathing room. I feel like there's a possibility I'm being duped by an Araris/Devo team and I want to look to see the logistics behind that before just getting swept from here :P. Honestly have no clue if that could/does make any sense at all but I am paranoid.

So there's that.

Edited August 21, 2022 by Matrim's Dice

[Sart]

20 minutes ago, Matrim's Dice said:

Sart only has a point if there's a Forsaken which I'm not really certain of, all the manip can be explained by other means. For all we know Araris is the Amyrlin, and frankly right now I'm more interested in voting by reads rather than mech assumptions. And I know Vorros' D1 makes Conq look really bad.

I think it's interesting Sart's voting someone he says could not have submitted a kill-- @Sart, where do you think the third elim is, then? Who submitted the kill?

Also not that I don't believe you since that'd be just about the easiest lie to uncover on the planet but @The Unknown Novel can the Forsaken be bonded to a Warder?

Trying to remember if there were any circumstances around Conq's claim that would allow for it to be fake, and I don't really think so. Only if his teammate was Wiz's Aes Sedai, and that obviously wouldn't be Sart since he's allegedly bonded to Luckspren (whom I'd like to confirm that, regardless of the fact that again there's basically no way that's just a lie). I suppose xino, but only if xino's just in bus mode for some reason.

Actually, if we're talking about the Amyrlin-- Conq could be an elim Amyrlin, instead of the Forsaken, I think. Though that'd be a two person team balance-wise I think.

There's probably a Forsaken. On both Day 1 and Day 2 there was a vote missing, rather than a vote being changed. If the elims had the power to move votes, why would they only remove them instead? Only reason I can see is if they're trying to bluff Forsaken, but that seems like too much tin foil.

Araris could have submitted the kill, if he is the Forsaken. I didn't see him do it, but there is the potential for a Fold Light action. If he's the Forsaken, it's 50-50 whether he would have the stats to do it. Mechanically, it's more likely that Devo did it, but my gut says Araris. If Araris is one of the Village exclusive roles, why did nothing show up? Those are physical actions, and at this point, I don't know why you wouldn't use them. It's also possible for Luck to have done it, but I really don't want to suspect my Warder.

In the off-chance that Conq is an elim, and their teammate is covering a fake claim, their teammate is still in the pool of Araris or Devo.

@The Unknown Novel Can the Amrylin Seat be bonded to a Warder? I don't think that happens in the books, but I haven't read the whole series, so I'm not sure.

Edited August 21, 2022 by Sart
Typo

[Devotary of Spontaneity]

50 minutes ago, Sart said:

Can the Amrylin Seat be bonded to a Warder?

Both the Forsaken and the Amyrlin Seat are Aes Sedai, so there's no reason they can't have Warders.

[The Unknown Ajah]

1 hour ago, Sart said:

 

@The Unknown Novel Can the Amrylin Seat be bonded to a Warder? I don't think that happens in the books, but I haven't read the whole series, so I'm not sure.

Yes. Also I believe Siun had one.

[Mat]

2 hours ago, The Unknown Novel said:

Yes. Also I believe Siun had one.

What about the Forsaken?

[Conquestor]

6 hours ago, Devotary of Spontaneity said:

So to confirm you didn't take any physical actions last night and can't back up Conq's claim to have roleblocked you? I can claim if Conq flips green but see no reason to do so otherwise.

Sart/Conq likely has Sart as the Forsaken given his D1 vote but I can see solo Forsaken Conq.

Why would I claim that before even knowing whether he did a physical action or not? Either I blocked him, I lied and hoped against hope he didn't do a physical action, or we're teamed. What I'm most concerned about is both you and Mat saying you'll do things if I flip green. Are you worried I will be vil or something? Sart's posts have a great deal of logic and reasoning behind them. I'm finding it hard to refute what he's saying. Although, I don't think that Araris is elim Sart. I would say that it is most likely Devo and Mat. They seem to be pretty well teamed. They haven't done anything explicit, but now that it is coming down to the ropes, they are really pushing hard against Sart. 

 

4 hours ago, Matrim's Dice said:

EDIT: Ok, say we misexe Conq, the ratio worse-case would be 4-2 afterwards which assuming one kill at night would lead to a 3-2 day which is fine. We do have breathing room. I feel like there's a possibility I'm being duped by an Araris/Devo team and I want to look to see the logistics behind that before just getting swept from here :P. Honestly have no clue if that could/does make any sense at all but I am paranoid.

So there's that.

Hmmm, trying to make it sound like there's breathing room and while there is, wouldn't it be easier to get it right now? Why is there so much concern about me getting misexed? If your so sure, then just say so and don't say "ah well, he might be green." You might be Shining's warder but how do we know that you aren't an elim? That seems like a pretty fair balanced team to me, a Blademaster, a Forsaken, and a Warder. Assuming that Devo is the Forsaken and you are the warder, which we can't confirm now, by the way, then that adds up to how, "you couldn't save him." Did your action fail to happen, or did it not? You would know whether your action failed or if it succeeded and if it was a Warder's protection action, then you don't have a chance for it to fail so it must've been role blocked. Yes, it is a risk, but you said yourself that round three is when you are willing to make those riskier plays. Also, killing a person that people pretty much know to be a vil and then having a chance to survive, again if you are the warder, would really help people convince themselves that you can't be an elim.

Anyway I slice it, I keep coming back to you Mat. I don't know what it is exactly, but I just have this feeling that you are an elim and most probably in cahoots with Devo. Thus you saying that it could be a Araris/Devo team in an attempt to distance yourself. Therefore, Mat, Devo. I still think that Devo is an elim and your teammate though.

17 hours ago, xinoehp512 said:

I also am suspicious of Conquestor. However, I did scan them last night, and they did not take any physical actions. If Conquestor is elim either they used Fog or there's a third elim.

Also, @xinoehp512 This is the third turn in a row! I you just that convinced that I'm an elim or what?

@Luckspren What are you're thoughts? We haven't heard from you yet!

[Araris Valerian]

On 8/20/2022 at 2:13 AM, Matrim's Dice said:

him and Vorros on D1 were textbook e/e.

You've said it, but can you elaborate? The two didn't interact very much outside of Vorros basically agreeing with Luckspren about being confused why people were suspicious there.

[Devotary of Spontaneity]

9 hours ago, Conquestor said:

Why would I claim that before even knowing whether he did a physical action or not? Either I blocked him, I lied and hoped against hope he didn't do a physical action, or we're teamed. What I'm most concerned about is both you and Mat saying you'll do things if I flip green. Are you worried I will be vil or something? Sart's posts have a great deal of logic and reasoning behind them. I'm finding it hard to refute what he's saying.

Why would I not check when it's so easy? Plus I get to find out whether Sart claims any physical actions, which Aes Sedai are less likely to do since it lowers weave success rates.

I think you're the best chance of hitting an elim but it's not 100%.

Sart was claiming that anyone with a Warder can't be the Forsaken, and thus the two of you can't be Forsaken, which is false because any Aes Sedai can have a Warder and the Forsaken doesn't have the asterisk marking it as not an Aes Sedai.

[Mat]

9 hours ago, Conquestor said:

What I'm most concerned about is both you and Mat saying you'll do things if I flip green. Are you worried I will be vil or something?

It'd be irresponsible of me to not consider the possibilities. I'm not just going to vote you and disappear.

9 hours ago, Conquestor said:

I would say that it is most likely Devo and Mat. They seem to be pretty well teamed. They haven't done anything explicit, but now that it is coming down to the ropes, they are really pushing hard against Sart. 

Can you elaborate on us being 'pretty well teamed'? I don't think we've done much of anything together except independently coming to the same conclusion here, and if you randomly start suspecting us now that's kind of weird.

9 hours ago, Conquestor said:

which we can't confirm now

Why else would I have a PM with Shining in which they so readily shared their scan results with me?

9 hours ago, Conquestor said:

Did your action fail to happen, or did it not? You would know whether your action failed or if it succeeded and if it was a Warder's protection action, then you don't have a chance for it to fail so it must've been role blocked. Yes, it is a risk, but you said yourself that round three is when you are willing to make those riskier plays.

My action failed but I was not specifically told that it'd been roleblocked. TUN never confirmed that, I think that's up to three questions I've asked that have gone unanswered :P. Still waiting on the double confirmation that a Forsaken can't bond a Warder. But you yourself pointed out that there's other ways for my action to have failed.

And I'm willing to do riskier plays when I need to. I... never said anything about a specific cycle number xD it was Night Two anyway. But there wasn't a reason for e!me to risk anything by claiming something that wasn't true at this stage. I was universally village read, as far as I'm aware, and if I'm evil you're not and I'd be pretty confident I could get you killed. That's obviously not what's happening but it's an illustration of why I'm not pulling a gambit here. It's the same thing with the Vorros scan result.

9 hours ago, Conquestor said:

Anyway I slice it, I keep coming back to you Mat. I don't know what it is exactly, but I just have this feeling that you are an elim and most probably in cahoots with Devo. Thus you saying that it could be a Araris/Devo team in an attempt to distance yourself. Therefore, Mat, Devo. I still think that Devo is an elim and your teammate though.

Again, do you have any reasons beyond waving your hand and saying we're elim? This came out of nowhere, right now, without any prior indication of this suspicion. You're not considering how hard I pushed Vorros (which, yes, you could argue that I needed to because Shining knew I knew but there was noooo reason to make such a huge case instead of just posting the results and tbh I probably could have convinced Shining that the results didn't need to be posted at all. And besides, you cannot honestly look at my interactions with Vorros in thread and say they're e/e :P).

2 hours ago, Araris Valerian said:

You've said it, but can you elaborate? The two didn't interact very much outside of Vorros basically agreeing with Luckspren about being confused why people were suspicious there.

Certainly. I'll type that post right now and double if no one else does before I'm done. And Devo posts right as I'm typing this, I was seconds too slow.

I think it deserves its own post, for organizational reasons. And because this one should get out there.

Edit: I was basically done with this, then accidentally reloaded the page and it's all gone now so hold on a bit longer >>

Edited August 21, 2022 by Matrim's Dice

[Mat]

Alright take two, sigh

This is inevitably going to be shorter than the first one simply because I don't want to type the whole thing again.

Anyway-- Vorros basically spent 90% of his energy D1 attacking Illwei, a focus that was so narrow and so aggressive that I find it hard to believe the trains were v/v. He went almost out of his way to not talk to Conq or comment on the Conq train specifically (except for the random time where he was like 'yeah, Conq train bad'). To me it's obvious Vorros cared which train went over.

Furthermore, the timing of his Illwei posts were interesting. His opener was an Illwei casing and came while the Illwei/Conq votes were tied. Future Illwei casings came after other people started looking at Conq, which isn't a hard-and-fast rule but still something I find interesting.

Then, of course, the manip away from Conq which I think most people at this point are thinking was Forsaken or at least elim. I'm still not sure how Sart's mech stuff fits tbh but I'm sure there's a way it works.

When N1 came, Vorros had a post about considering Conq for an info kill but he literally never mentioned it again. Which just looks like distancing to me.

On D2, after I started pushing Vorros but far before he was in danger, Conq randomly PMd me and claimed that Wiz was his Warder (which contradicts a main point in my Vorros case). Conq clearly had me in his elimmier reads (so him claiming to me doesn't make sense) and didn't bother saying this in thread, which implies that he was trying to get me off Vorros' back without drawing attention to that fact. He of course wouldn't have known about the scan and just saw my case and the lack of responses to that case. Then when he was outed, Conq was resistant to voting him.

And for the record I still think that Conq being Wiz's Aes Sedai and teamed with Vorros could mean that the slip I noticed was valid. The Forsaken, then, would probably be Devo (just like I said in my Conq worlds post, where in the case of e!Conq I said the team would be Conq/Vorros/Devo) and everything would work out. Conq himself said that a blademaster/warder/forsaken makes sense as a team to him.

That'd also explain why he unvoted Devo and voted me, all of a sudden. That makes a lot of sense, actually.

@Sart what does your mech analysis think about a team where Devo is the Forsaken and Conq is an elim Aes Sedai who was bonded to Wiz?

Edited August 21, 2022 by Matrim's Dice

[Luckspren]

Finally, a coherent attack on Conq. This one makes sense to me. I've read back through Day 1, and Vorros does seem pretty invested in attacking Illwei. 

I'm not confident, but I'm not confident on anyone else either, and I think the Conq flip will give the most information, either way. 

Conquestor

Conq (4): Mat, Xino, Araris, Luck

Devo (2): Conq, Sart

[Araris Valerian]

59 minutes ago, Luckspren said:

Finally, a coherent attack on Conq. This one makes sense to me. I've read back through Day 1, and Vorros does seem pretty invested in attacking Illwei. 

I'm not confident, but I'm not confident on anyone else either, and I think the Conq flip will give the most information, either way. 

Conquestor

Conq (4): Mat, Xino, Araris, Luck

Devo (2): Conq, Sart

Sart is currently voting on me, so far as I can tell.

[Conquestor]

4 hours ago, Matrim's Dice said:

It'd be irresponsible of me to not consider the possibilities. I'm not just going to vote you and disappear.

That is completely fair and something that I do myself. I just have to wonder why half of the people that are voting on me are saying that.

22 hours ago, Devotary of Spontaneity said:

Seal doesn't block healing because weaves aren't non-lethal actions, but it should stop a Warder. @Sart, did you have any physical actions roleblocked?

Xino's supporting you. Guessing that you didn't take any physical actions is risky if he doesn't know for sure by scanning you, being elims together, using Raise Fog on you, etc. Why do you think I do things at random?

@The Unknown Novel Does sealing/warding block weaves (except for lightning)? Also, can the Forsaken have a warder. I would assume so, otherwise that would clear so many people, but who knows. I would also assume that Seal would block weaves since every weave except for lightning is non-lethal. Also, there is nothing wrong with checking, but how does that make it so I'm the Forsaken?

4 hours ago, Matrim's Dice said:

Can you elaborate on us being 'pretty well teamed'? I don't think we've done much of anything together except independently coming to the same conclusion here, and if you randomly start suspecting us now that's kind of weird.

You and Devo really haven't mentioned or talked about each other at all. The most I got was that you didn't like his D1 vote and so have been neutral about him. He defended himself on why he did that vote and then you two discussed warders and how they work. It just seems like, despite the fact that he is one of your supposed top options, you haven't put much of a case out there for him. It mostly relies on me being an elim, which if you are one, you know that I am not. My guess is that you two will either turn on each other next cycle or try and lynch Xino. You guys just about never mention each other!

4 hours ago, Matrim's Dice said:

Why else would I have a PM with Shining in which they so readily shared their scan results with me?

Uh, he's a brand new player and was trying his best to help the village? I revealed way more important stuff in a pm to a seasoned player for help in my first ever game. I just didn't really know what to do with the info I had or with my role in general. It would've worked out to if Joe didn't get converted... Anyways, the point is that it's not unreasonable that he would share those with you. It's just a little convenient that stuff turned out the way it did...

4 hours ago, Matrim's Dice said:

My action failed but I was not specifically told that it'd been roleblocked. TUN never confirmed that, I think that's up to three questions I've asked that have gone unanswered :P. Still waiting on the double confirmation that a Forsaken can't bond a Warder. But you yourself pointed out that there's other ways for my action to have failed.

As far as I am aware, there is no other way for warder actions to fail than to be role blocked or the person that you are targeting to be sealed. You just worded your first post this cycle weirdly and so I'm making assumptions from that. Also, why role claim now? Why not wait till later?

4 hours ago, Matrim's Dice said:

And I'm willing to do riskier plays when I need to. I... never said anything about a specific cycle number xD it was Night Two anyway. But there wasn't a reason for e!me to risk anything by claiming something that wasn't true at this stage. I was universally village read, as far as I'm aware, and if I'm evil you're not and I'd be pretty confident I could get you killed. That's obviously not what's happening but it's an illustration of why I'm not pulling a gambit here. It's the same thing with the Vorros scan result.

I'm going to quote you from D2 when I suggested that what you did might be a ploy...

Quote

  On 8/17/2022 at 3:58 PM, Conquestor said:

You also don't seem like the type to take that kind of risk as an Elim. 

Ah, you’d be surprised  

The risk taking aspect though is a turn off for me, you’re right about that. But plan wise sounds like a fun challenge tbh

But yeah it’d be a dumb ploy to do a 1-1 trade at this stage in the game

The way that I am reading this, and go ahead and correct me, is that you would take this kind of risk, but only later in the game and more specifically, that you would typically wait another turn. I was assuming that the elims would push to lynch me either this cycle or the next, it would just be too tempting. 

4 hours ago, Matrim's Dice said:

Again, do you have any reasons beyond waving your hand and saying we're elim? This came out of nowhere, right now, without any prior indication of this suspicion. You're not considering how hard I pushed Vorros (which, yes, you could argue that I needed to because Shining knew I knew but there was noooo reason to make such a huge case instead of just posting the results and tbh I probably could have convinced Shining that the results didn't need to be posted at all. And besides, you cannot honestly look at my interactions with Vorros in thread and say they're e/e :P).

Really? Out of nowhere? Didn't I talk about you being an elim lean for me N1 and suggested how you could be the forsaken? Also, Devo has been in my neutral camp almost all game, it's not uncommon for people to move out of neutral, at least I thought so. You didn't make a huge case. Yes you called him out for a possible slip up, but as far as I'm aware, until you posted the results of Shining's trace, no one was voting on him except you and the cycle was 6 hours from closing when you did post the results. No one was going to lynch Vorros yet until you posted the results, so it could've been a distancing tactic. I also have a hard time with your e/e thing. I'm not very good at finding/seeing it, so would you mind posting some examples of where me and vorros have been the playbook e/e?

4 hours ago, Matrim's Dice said:

Anyway-- Vorros basically spent 90% of his energy D1 attacking Illwei, a focus that was so narrow and so aggressive that I find it hard to believe the trains were v/v. He went almost out of his way to not talk to Conq or comment on the Conq train specifically (except for the random time where he was like 'yeah, Conq train bad'). To me it's obvious Vorros cared which train went over.

Furthermore, the timing of his Illwei posts were interesting. His opener was an Illwei casing and came while the Illwei/Conq votes were tied. Future Illwei casings came after other people started looking at Conq, which isn't a hard-and-fast rule but still something I find interesting.

You also went pretty well out of your way to not talk about the two trains, almost like you were afraid to tie yourself to one of them. You even said that you didn't have elim points for either one of us and so you voted somewhere else. You actually said less about the trains D1 than Vorros did. Also, if refusal to talk to or about each other is e/e behavior, then my earlier point about you and Devo makes sense according to your own statements. Also, I wouldn't say his first post was a casing... it was more of an opportunistic vote than anything else. Yes, he pressed hard on Illwei, but that just might be his play style. He picks someone to kill cycle one and then focuses on them. It is a good point though and I don't have anything else to point out about it.

4 hours ago, Matrim's Dice said:

Then, of course, the manip away from Conq which I think most people at this point are thinking was Forsaken or at least elim. I'm still not sure how Sart's mech stuff fits tbh but I'm sure there's a way it works.

When N1 came, Vorros had a post about considering Conq for an info kill but he literally never mentioned it again. Which just looks like distancing to me.

He easily could've been testing the waters to see if people would be willing to "yeet" me for info. What a weird way to state that by the way, it's like he was expecting me to not be an elim or something. If several people responded to his comment in the positive, then he would've gone ahead and supported the info wagon on D2. No one replied to his comment however, so he dropped it. Although, you are correct it could've been a distancing technique, so why would he tell Luck that he scanned me and read me as vil? Why draw attention to me unnecessarily?

4 hours ago, Matrim's Dice said:

On D2, after I started pushing Vorros but far before he was in danger, Conq randomly PMd me and claimed that Wiz was his Warder (which contradicts a main point in my Vorros case). Conq clearly had me in his elimmier reads (so him claiming to me doesn't make sense) and didn't bother saying this in thread, which implies that he was trying to get me off Vorros' back without drawing attention to that fact. He of course wouldn't have known about the scan and just saw my case and the lack of responses to that case. Then when he was outed, Conq was resistant to voting him.

And for the record I still think that Conq being Wiz's Aes Sedai and teamed with Vorros could mean that the slip I noticed was valid. The Forsaken, then, would probably be Devo (just like I said in my Conq worlds post, where in the case of e!Conq I said the team would be Conq/Vorros/Devo) and everything would work out. Conq himself said that a blademaster/warder/forsaken makes sense as a team to him.

Yes, I did do that, but if I'm being honest, I wasn't really convinced by your case against Vorros. I had no reason to convince you to get off of him. Your whole case was that he slipped up and tried to kill his own warder. The supposed slip up could've been real because he was a blademaster not a warder, or Forsaken/Aes Sedai. I also stated a couple of other reasons that Vorros did what he did, like fishing for warders, which if you are vil, worked in your case. I WAS THE FIRST TO VOTE ON HIM AFTER YOU. How is that resistant? The only thing that I showed resistance in is just trusting you completely, which I think is fair. Araris thought the same thing as me. I was just looking at the option that you were elim and it was false, kind of like how you are working out what might happen if I was vil this cycle.

Wait, if Devo is the Forsaken and I'm Aes Sedai, how does that fit into my Bladmaster/Warder/Forsaken elim team idea? Are you saying that I'm a warder then and that I was faking it? wouldn't that be super easy to CC though? Also, Vorros specifically called me out several times N1 and D2, how does that fit into your whole idea of the e/e thing.

Also, why would he ask this specifically?

Quote

Wait could it be that they tried to kill someone else but Wizard took the bullet instead? That makes more sense than a wizard kill. It was an odd night as well, so they were protecting their Aes Sedai.

@Conquestor I have a question. I don’t know how confident you are on Mat being an elim, but who do you think it could be if it isn’t Mat?

Why did he care if I thought you were elim? Why didn't he care about my Sart or Xino being elim? He also died voting on you D2, which may have been a further attempt to distance or not reveal his teammates. @Luckspren He tried to convince you to vote on Xino but he himself was voting for Mat? That doesn't seem like a self preservation play at all.

 

Anywho da day... That was a freaking long post where I was essentially dissecting both of Mat's posts about me. He makes two good points that I call out, but a lot of what he says is full of holes, at least according to me. Sorry that was so long!!!

[Devotary of Spontaneity]

27 minutes ago, Conquestor said:

Also, there is nothing wrong with checking, but how does that make it so I'm the Forsaken?

You and Devo really haven't mentioned or talked about each other at all. The most I got was that you didn't like her D1 vote and so have been neutral about her. She defended herself on why she did that vote and then you two discussed warders and how they work. It just seems like, despite the fact that she is one of your supposed top options, you haven't put much of a case out there for her. It mostly relies on me being an elim, which if you are one, you know that I am not.

 I WAS THE FIRST TO VOTE ON HIM AFTER YOU. How is that resistant? The only thing that I showed resistance in is just trusting you completely, which I think is fair. Araris thought the same thing as me. I was just looking at the option that you were elim and it was false, kind of like how you are working out what might happen if I was vil this cycle.

Also, Vorros specifically called me out several times N1 and D2, how does that fit into your whole idea of the e/e thing.

Because you were already my best guess for the Forsaken and having a Warder doesn't clear you of that.

I haven't mentioned Mat because he went to greater lengths to kill Vorros than I'd expect for an elim.  He's also definitely not the Forsaken.

Vote analysis isn't super helpful for finding the Forsaken because their vote doesn't count. For Vorros's vote all we can say is that he preferred Illwei's death to yours. I don't think his D2 vote for Xino means much but I also don't have Xino as a current elim suspect.

He claimed willingness to info-kill you but was overall reading you as village.

[Mat]

49 minutes ago, Conquestor said:

It just seems like, despite the fact that he is one of your supposed top options, you haven't put much of a case out there for him.

1. She, as Devo just pointed out.

2. Did you miss the part about me landing on the you/Devo team like, a few hours ago? :P. I mean, in the e!you world I already said the most likely team was Vorros/Devo, so that was preexisting, but I've always had trouble reading Devo as a general rule. I kinda had her at a neutral stage until Sart's mech post, and only since I believe your claim about Wiz being your Warder and thinking there's prooobably a Forsaken (which doesn't have to be true, I guess), my top candidate goes from you to her. I think Araris has been more village to me but it could be him as well. Or there could not be one and it could just be you. Or not one and you and someone else. Or not you. Idk.

54 minutes ago, Conquestor said:

It's just a little convenient that stuff turned out the way it did...

What, it's convenient that my Aes Sedai trusted me enough so that we could out Vorros? Yes, that was quite nice.

It was not convenient that my protection was stopped. I did get a clarification that I wouldn't specifically be told if I were RBd so it could have been that. Tbh I'm not so sure about your action on me failing but that's a dead end to explore for me here. Or for you to reply to. A pointless argument that will only be resolved by the GM spreadsheet when the game is over  But like I very easily could say the same about Wiz dying literally N1, his death and you being bonded to him, quite convenient.

56 minutes ago, Conquestor said:

Also, why role claim now? Why not wait till later?

That's a good question. I think it was just that I had written off Shining as safe, so coming back to their death blindsided me a little bit and I retaliation claimed. It probably would have been beneficial to hide the fact that I'd be protected every other cycle but whatever, I guess :P. If it helps Sart's analysis that's good too.

I didn't claim D2 because I thought it'd have the best chance of ensuring Shining's survival, but that obviously didn't work out. And again, I likely could have convinced Shining not to share the info if I were evil.

58 minutes ago, Conquestor said:

The way that I am reading this, and go ahead and correct me, is that you would take this kind of risk, but only later in the game and more specifically, that you would typically wait another turn. I was assuming that the elims would push to lynch me either this cycle or the next, it would just be too tempting. 

Ah I see what you mean-- I was referring specifically to the distribution of this game, meaning that there were too many villagers left in the game for this to be a ploy. Since today is likewise not lylo, the same holds true. Making a ploy like that is a valid strategy at lylo since there's only one misexe before the elims win, but that isn't true now and it wasn't true then, so no ploy. I normally don't do a ploy anyway unless I'm on the chopping block. Does that make sense? It wasn't that C3 is a magic number, just that in this game two misexes and three elims makes for a 4-3 ratio, which favors the elims.

1 hour ago, Conquestor said:

You didn't make a huge case.

Ahem  

That link plus all the other little posts I did I think qualify for a huge case. 

1 hour ago, Conquestor said:

I also have a hard time with your e/e thing. I'm not very good at finding/seeing it, so would you mind posting some examples of where me and vorros have been the playbook e/e?

Did you miss my post this cycle? You're quoting it so I guess not  To be fair it's mostly from Vorros' side but you can't deny that his C1 play makes you look bad.

1 hour ago, Conquestor said:

You also went pretty well out of your way to not talk about the two trains, almost like you were afraid to tie yourself to one of them. You even said that you didn't have elim points for either one of us and so you voted somewhere else. You actually said less about the trains D1 than Vorros did. Also, if refusal to talk to or about each other is e/e behavior, then my earlier point about you and Devo makes sense according to your own statements. Also, I wouldn't say his first post was a casing... it was more of an opportunistic vote than anything else. Yes, he pressed hard on Illwei, but that just might be his play style. He picks someone to kill cycle one and then focuses on them. It is a good point though and I don't have anything else to point out about it.

You realize you're defending a dead elim, right? :P. If Vorros truly didn't care if you or Illwei went over he had a strange way of showing it. Not that I expected him to not have an opinion but his aggression crossed the line between attacking Illwei and defending you, at least for me.

1 hour ago, Conquestor said:

I had no reason to convince you to get off of him. Your whole case was that he slipped up and tried to kill his own warder. The supposed slip up could've been real because he was a blademaster not a warder, or Forsaken/Aes Sedai. I also stated a couple of other reasons that Vorros did what he did, like fishing for warders, which if you are vil, worked in your case.

If you're elim you had a very good reason to convince me to move. That was not my whole case (see: the post I linked earlier) and my point was that he had something specific in mind for even/odd protection cycles, which you definitely couldn't get as a blademaster, or Forsaken, or unbonded Aes Sedai, only as a Warder or bonded Aes Sedai. Or in a doc with one.

What I think happened is that in the elim doc, you'd mentioned which cycle Wiz was protecting you and Vorros forgot that wasn't common knowledge, but I can see his reaction as a caught-for-the-wrong-reasons and I wouldn't entirely be surprised if I'm wrong, even if both of you are elim. But if I'm right about that I want brownie points  There's no reason for him to be fishing for warders as you say if it's somewhat outing, and I didn't claim because of that at all so no, it didn't work in my case.

1 hour ago, Conquestor said:

I WAS THE FIRST TO VOTE ON HIM AFTER YOU. How is that resistant? The only thing that I showed resistance in is just trusting you completely, which I think is fair. Araris thought the same thing as me. I was just looking at the option that you were elim and it was false, kind of like how you are working out what might happen if I was vil this cycle.

Oh. Yeah, completely missed your vote on my reread tbh so I only saw the part where you were arguing that it was a ploy. I will say there's a difference between voting someone and preparing for their theoretically possible green flip and trusting a scan claim and paranoia-ing its falseness, but I see what you mean.

1 hour ago, Conquestor said:

Wait, if Devo is the Forsaken and I'm Aes Sedai, how does that fit into my Bladmaster/Warder/Forsaken elim team idea? Are you saying that I'm a warder then and that I was faking it? wouldn't that be super easy to CC though? Also, Vorros specifically called me out several times N1 and D2, how does that fit into your whole idea of the e/e thing.

Another sloppy mistake on my part, I misremembered what your team guess was. But a bonded Aes Sedai being switched out for a Warder works as well I think, it still fulfills the role of 'bonded to a villager'. A warder would probably be more balanced, I'll grant you that, but I am no authority on distro guessing to begin with >>

But no either way I believe you were bonded to Wiz and are Aes Sedai, that's not what I meant.

1 hour ago, Conquestor said:

Why did he care if I thought you were elim? Why didn't he care about my Sart or Xino being elim? He also died voting on you D2, which may have been a further attempt to distance or not reveal his teammates.

Maybe because you wrote multiple paragraphs about me on D1, whereas Sart and xino got like a sentence at best? He died voting on Shining, and even if it was me it wouldn't be distancing, it'd be his only chance at survival because at that stage it was an effective me-or-him.

[Sart]

Oh great. I'm defending a crazy person. Is there a chance that Matrim was not actually Shining's Warder, and was instead just a random PM contact? I guess. Do I think that's a likely outcome? Probably not. If this conspiracy theory is true, I think we have bigger issues, considering that Matrim has the trust of most of the village at this point. It's not helping matters that you're public enemy number one right now, so anything you say is being read with a massive grain of salt.

Matrim is also right that you could be an elim, without being the Forsaken. Your teammate would still have to be Devo or Araris, and considering you voted on one, but didn't even discuss the other, it seems likely that Araris is the last one. Of course, in the scenario where you are evil, I look incredibly suspicious, which benefits your team a lot more than mine.

Basically, everyone and their mothers are voting for you. The only person who hasn't yet is Devo, and I'm presuming their vote is going on you. I'm not going to join you on your conspiracy theory. I'm trying to prevent a mislynch, but you aren't making this easy. Based on my role analysis, Devo or Araris is the Forsaken. Quite frankly, you have nothing left to lose. Give me an argument for one or the other. I'm having trouble differentiating between them, so I'd like your input.

[Sart]

Sorry for the double post, wanted to add one more thought.

Let's assume for a second that this a mislynch. If we're assuming 2 elims are still standing, we go down to 4 to 2. Even worse, we then have to deal with a night kill. Presuming that goes through, we're dealing with a 3 to 2 matchup next cycle. That isn't good odds. We have a pretty clear 50-50 situation in my eyes. I hope the town's collective wisdom is right here, and Conq is an elim. If he flips village, I reserve the right to say I told you so, and I wish we would have killed Araris.

[Mat]

25 minutes ago, Sart said:

Your teammate would still have to be Devo or Araris, and considering you voted on one, but didn't even discuss the other, it seems likely that Araris is the last one.

Do remember that Conq voted Devo but has since moved to focus on me, which I think is significant. Could be distancing.

16 minutes ago, Sart said:

Let's assume for a second that this a mislynch. If we're assuming 2 elims are still standing, we go down to 4 to 2. Even worse, we then have to deal with a night kill. Presuming that goes through, we're dealing with a 3 to 2 matchup next cycle. That isn't good odds. We have a pretty clear 50-50 situation in my eyes. I hope the town's collective wisdom is right here, and Conq is an elim. If he flips village, I reserve the right to say I told you so, and I wish we would have killed Araris.

All that means is that this cycle is not exlo, which is a good thing. If Conq is village I think the game can solve itself at that point, so I’m not too worried about that.

That’s the kind of paragraph that comes back to bite you, but we’ll see I guess.

[The Unknown Ajah]

2 hours ago, Conquestor said:

@The Unknown Novel Does sealing/warding block weaves (except for lightning)? Also, can the Forsaken have a warder. I would assume so, otherwise that would clear so many people, but who knows. I would also assume that Seal would block weaves since every weave except for lightning is non-lethal. Also, there is nothing wrong with checking, but how does that make it so I'm the Forsaken?

No, it doesn’t, only physical actions.

They cannot. 

[Devotary of Spontaneity]

So I'll still vote for Conquestor but that means he isn't solo. I'd say more likely Araris than Xino of plausible teammates.