Elandera

Mid-Range Game 59: Alcatraz vs the Lens Destructors

238 posts in this topic

Posted (edited)

4 hours ago, Conquestor said:

Actually, I went back through the votes and I want to ask Archer/Kas, why such a last minute vote change. Wizard might've been on to something before he died. I'll have to get back to you sooner Devotary. This a much more pressing issue. Also, I know that I just voted for you, but if I'm being honest, I really don't want Archer/Kas to be Elim, but that is a rather interesting move. I guess like how this one is... Well, let the consequences follow I guess! 

I can explain it, at least a little. Archer will have to release more info as they see fit.

Not longer after Kas placed their vote on me, I contacted Kas with a two (three really) pieces of information that made me seem village to him. Archer may reveal them as he sees fit. I give full and express permission to out me on everything but the last detail of our PM. 

I have info that nobody else does, being that I am confirmed Village in my own eyes, so I know that the two main trains were pure. I can definitely see a Conq/JNV team. Devo could have saved Fifth, but they might not have been on. There is a world where Kas/Archer is evil, but Kas last minute vote changing in a way that was almost guaranteed to be perceived as sus makes me disbelieve that world. There is no benefit to it. TGK could fit into either Conq or JNVs slot. So my pool is Conq, JNV, TGK. 

Edit: Oh, wait, TGK was attacked and survived. I'm locking in my official guess at Conq and JNV then. I'll also mention that all my lenses were shattered, and Conq and Kas were the only ones who knew I had Truthfinders, and Kas thought I only had Trackers until 4:58ish(two minutes before rollover in my timezone). Decide who you think shattered them for yourselves, but I'm going with guy who had almost an hour where they were for sure active rather then the one who had two minutes and had just woken up. (according to our PM).

Edited by The Unknown Novel
Posted an edit I'm saving for later. If the mods have a problem with this I'll add it back.
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49 minutes ago, The Unknown Novel said:

I can explain it, at least a little. Archer will have to release more info as they see fit.

Not longer after Kas placed their vote on me, I contacted Kas with a two (three really) pieces of information that made me seem village to him. Archer may reveal them as he sees fit. I give full and express permission to out me on everything but the last detail of our PM. 

I have info that nobody else does, being that I am confirmed Village in my own eyes, so I know that the two main trains were pure. I can definitely see a Conq/JNV team. Devo could have saved Fifth, but they might not have been on. There is a world where Kas/Archer is evil, but Kas last minute vote changing in a way that was almost guaranteed to be perceived as sus makes me disbelieve that world. There is no benefit to it. TGK could fit into either Conq or JNVs slot. So my pool is Conq, JNV, TGK. 

 

I understand the reasoning for the edit, but please add it back. Nothing is supposed to be removed from posts. The only edits allowed by the rules are those to fix grammar/spelling/etc. and to avoid double posts.

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51 minutes ago, Elandera said:

I understand the reasoning for the edit, but please add it back. Nothing is supposed to be removed from posts. The only edits allowed by the rules are those to fix grammar/spelling/etc. and to avoid double posts.

Ok. Done.

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Okay, I have officially decided that I'm either really bad at reading people or just too use to playing a certain way. At this point, I have almost no idea who to trust anymore. I like your post Archer, but it seems to heavily favor Kas (which is you now, right?). Don't you know what alignment you are? You seem to almost try to be distancing yourself from Kas while making him look better. Expertly done by the way!

Now, I'm going to be hiking a mountain for most of today, so if someone has some direct questions for me, I'd be happy to respond when I get back! 

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5 hours ago, Conquestor said:

I like your post Archer, but it seems to heavily favor Kas (which is you now, right?). Don't you know what alignment you are? You seem to almost try to be distancing yourself from Kas while making him look better. Expertly done by the way!

Now, I'm going to be hiking a mountain for most of today, so if someone has some direct questions for me, I'd be happy to respond when I get back! 

I originally approached my read through in the mindset of uh oh, that C2 vote from Kas is going to cause trouble. So I made an effort to point out the villagey things they'd done before I realized that they weren't as up against the wall as my initial skim had led me to believe. If you look at their Fifth interactions etc they really don't seem e-e, and that makes life so much easier for me. :D. 

16 hours ago, The Unknown Novel said:

I can explain it, at least a little. Archer will have to release more info as they see fit.

Not longer after Kas placed their vote on me, I contacted Kas with a two (three really) pieces of information that made me seem village to him. Archer may reveal them as he sees fit. I give full and express permission to out me on everything but the last detail of our PM. 

I have info that nobody else does, being that I am confirmed Village in my own eyes, so I know that the two main trains were pure. I can definitely see a Conq/JNV team. Devo could have saved Fifth, but they might not have been on. There is a world where Kas/Archer is evil, but Kas last minute vote changing in a way that was almost guaranteed to be perceived as sus makes me disbelieve that world. There is no benefit to it. TGK could fit into either Conq or JNVs slot. So my pool is Conq, JNV, TGK. 

Edit: Oh, wait, TGK was attacked and survived. I'm locking in my official guess at Conq and JNV then. I'll also mention that all my lenses were shattered, and Conq and Kas were the only ones who knew I had Truthfinders, and Kas thought I only had Trackers until 4:58ish(two minutes before rollover in my timezone). Decide who you think shattered them for yourselves, but I'm going with guy who had almost an hour where they were for sure active rather then the one who had two minutes and had just woken up. (according to our PM).

I didn't notice until after posting my last post, but yes, TUN explained they acquired and used their lenses in a way Kas found villagery and Kas woke up late, said that checks out, and moved their vote all in a short timeframe. (I'm still behind on the theorized scummy vs villagey meta about how lens will be used and distributed, so I'm trusting Kas' judgment here.)

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I'm not sure how having lenses makes TUN village or why Kas would have decided that but I also don't see why e!Kas would have decided to shift his vote last minute to save v!TUN.

TUN's shatter claim is notable, since unless anyone counterclaims the options are the elims self-targeted or hit Steel or Wizard or nobody. Unlikely for it to be Wizard since he claimed to be shattered C2 and presumably wasn't lying since he's village and JNV backed him up and getting shattered twice in a row is weird.

Could be Steel but e!TUN likely would have assumed that Steel would be the one getting a pinch-hitter instead of Kas, so targeting Steel while claiming to have been shattered wouldn't have been something TUN thought of C3. The other two options are possible with e!TUN, especially if he thought he was going to be exed. If TUN and Kas were the elims, TUN would be more confident of survival and therefore less likely to self-shatter.

Conq and TUN could be teamed through C3, but they're fighting today. I don't think they'd want to bus each other this cycle if they were both elims but there's still over half the cycle left for things to develop. I don't know how JNV fits into this but they're probably not elims with TUN.

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I cant understand a world where Fifth was a bus so Im tossing those three out of the pool and then the PM conversations I had with Kasimir about Fifth and with Fifth about Kasimir just dont feel like ploys and if that assumption and trust ends up being our downfall so be it so the pool shrinks a bit now let me go look at votes do some thinking

@Elandera would someone who survived a kill through Windstormers Lens get 'attacked but survived' in the write up cause in the rule sit says 'cannot be targeted' but I cant think of anything else that would be 'attacked but survived' 

C1 vote count highlighted for knowledge

Quote

Ashbringer (4) - Matrim's Dice, Fifth Scholar, Conquestor, Devotary of Spontaneity
Droughtbringer (1) - A Joe in the Bush
Luckspren (1) - Kasimir

Heres the thing right heres the thing we know for certain there was elim involvement in the Ashbringer vote and we know Fifth was soliciting more votes on there but why heres another thing at the time Conquestor voted it was a 4 way tie and they could have just sat there on Wizard but no they broke the tie and they broke it to kill Ashbringer thus saving the three othres who are Luckspren Droughtbringer and Wizard now Droughtbringer and Wizard are confirmed not evil Conqeustor says inactivity was one of the key motivators but didnt vote the actual inactive this isnt a formal accusation or anything just if Conquestor ends up evil Luckspren is also evil cause otherwise why switch 

Oh speaking of Luckspren @Archer whatd Luckspren do C1 cause that was like Kasimirs main case for village Luckspren apparently they seemed like a good action submitter person but with Fifth and Conqeustor as the teammates that case is a bit eh

The only problem with this is if its Luckspren and Conquestor and Luckspren wasnt online then howd both a kill and a shatter come through I mean they could have put the kill in early and then Conquestor switched the shatter ok that makes sense cancel my complaint

C2 vote count highlighted for knowldge

Quote

Fifth Scholar (3) - A Joe in the Bush, The_God_King, Devotary of Spontaneity
The_God_King (2) - Fifth Scholar, Kasimir
The Unknown Novel (1) - The Wandering Wizard
The Wandering Wizard (1) - Conquestor

The votes on Fifth by Joe and Devotary were completely unnecessary coming from evil and Fiftsh vote on The God King is also unnecessary on evil cause I have faith in them I consider Fifth a good enough sweet talker to make a case on someone else and honestly this bit of 'analysis' is just me jusrifying my pool of good 

The question that evil The Unknown Novel creates is whos their teammate I mean I guess it could be Luckspren dont feel like itd be Archer/Kasimir cause that sorta vote would doom them both

Its outnumber so technically we can afford being wrong about my fundamental assumptions where we basically kill Conquestor Luckspren and The Unknown Novel not necessarily in that order but I dont know where wed go after that 

The Unknown Novel to start off with mostly cause their thought about a Conqeustor me team just seems weird to me and Id like a little elaboration on that but with Lucksprens current suspect pool might flip that to Conqestuor Luckspren team as official guess and go there later well see

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The problem with believing an e!me world is that requires Kas to either be very wrong or evil. Of you believe in a me/Luckspren team, then Kas is very wrong on one count and wrong on another (village read me enough to switch to Wizard in a way that was bound to get a lot of suspicion thrown on them, and village read Luck enough to remove them from the PoE). Do you really doubt Kas that much?

I still expect to die this turn, but there are are still six villagers left, after I die it will be four, that means that everyone will have to agree if we have even one inactive. If we have more, then it's two fifty fifty shots in a row.

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6 hours ago, JNV said:

would someone who survived a kill through Windstormers Lens get 'attacked but survived' in the write up cause in the rule sit says 'cannot be targeted' but I cant think of anything else that would be 'attacked but survived' 

All forms of kill protection (Disguiser's, Windstormer's, and Truthfinder's) will show as "attacked but survived."

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13 hours ago, JNV said:

Oh speaking of Luckspren @Archer whatd Luckspren do C1 cause that was like Kasimirs main case for village Luckspren apparently they seemed like a good action submitter person but with Fifth and Conqeustor as the teammates that case is a bit eh

The Unknown Novel to start off with mostly cause their thought about a Conqeustor me team just seems weird to me and Id like a little elaboration on that but with Lucksprens current suspect pool might flip that to Conqestuor Luckspren team as official guess and go there later well see

Off the top of my head, I think they tracked them not submitting an NK or shattering. If you've got two out of three(?) elims submitting actions on a given Night, odds are good they'd tap the lowest profile person on the team to submit one of them. But take that with a grain of C1 clears aren't permanent salt. 

Could I convince you to go for Conq instead since you seem okay with believing they're evil? There's good connections between them and Fifth, particularly where they lightly defended Fifth by arguing for exing Devo first. 

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Tun: TGK, Devotary, Luckspren, JNV

Archer: Conq

Conq: Archer

What the heck happened??? Why is everyone so ready to kill TUN when there have been many more and much better arguments for me being evil? (And with the way that the votes have gone down, I'm almost inclined to believe them. -_-) I'm just saying that because this TUN train seems almost a little forced. If he is an elim, I'm really going to eat my post next cycle, but I'm inclined to think that he is vil. Also, Luckspren is coming out of nowhere and joining the TUN bandwagon. He has posted very little, let alone voted. Why join the bandwagon now? Archer, I'm still a little suspicious of you, but I guess I have my own long list of suspicious actions. I've been very bad about getting reads, that's obviously something that I need to improve at!

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Two hours!

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58 minutes ago, Conquestor said:

Tun: TGK, Devotary, Luckspren, JNV

Archer: Conq

Conq: Archer

What the heck happened??? Why is everyone so ready to kill TUN when there have been many more and much better arguments for me being evil? (And with the way that the votes have gone down, I'm almost inclined to believe them. -_-) I'm just saying that because this TUN train seems almost a little forced. If he is an elim, I'm really going to eat my post next cycle, but I'm inclined to think that he is vil. Also, Luckspren is coming out of nowhere and joining the TUN bandwagon. He has posted very little, let alone voted. Why join the bandwagon now? Archer, I'm still a little suspicious of you, but I guess I have my own long list of suspicious actions. I've been very bad about getting reads, that's obviously something that I need to improve at!

I am voting for you btw.

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15 hours ago, The Unknown Novel said:

The problem with believing an e!me world is that requires Kas to either be very wrong or evil. Of you believe in a me/Luckspren team, then Kas is very wrong on one count and wrong on another (village read me enough to switch to Wizard in a way that was bound to get a lot of suspicion thrown on them, and village read Luck enough to remove them from the PoE). Do you really doubt Kas that much?

I still expect to die this turn, but there are are still six villagers left, after I die it will be four, that means that everyone will have to agree if we have even one inactive. If we have more, then it's two fifty fifty shots in a row.

Youre misrepresenting my argument and youre misrepresenting Kasimirs arguments and if anything this seals my vote and that might be a bad thing cause bad logic doesnt mean evil but this is just a blatant attempt to sway me by playing off my trust in a village Archer/Kasimir not even anyting youve done 

3 hours ago, Archer said:

Could I convince you to go for Conq instead since you seem okay with believing they're evil? There's good connections between them and Fifth, particularly where they lightly defended Fifth by arguing for exing Devo first. 

I mean I was kinda waiting for Th eUnknown Novel to explain their opinions a little and they havent really interacted with my argument besides saying 'trust Kasimir' which is absurd also you have the result right you were added to PMs so surely you got their scan result Im trying to see if Luckspren not submitting one of those actions could be justified by a worthwhile lens action in the evil case or if it was just wobbles all around and honestly I kinda feel like people arent really engaging with my reasoning so much like do you understand why I want to know Lucksprens thing cause with Lucksprens vote right now its harder to see them paired and honestly I would have been willing to switch if The unknown Novel had made any attempt to defend themself beyond 'trust Kasimir'  

53 minutes ago, Conquestor said:

If he is an elim, I'm really going to eat my post next cycle, but I'm inclined to think that he is vil.

You do realise that if theyre village youre next on the chopping block right if you and them are good then whos evil in your worldview and whos their partner

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1 hour ago, Conquestor said:

Tun: TGK, Devotary, Luckspren, JNV

Archer: Conq

Conq: Archer

What the heck happened??? Why is everyone so ready to kill TUN when there have been many more and much better arguments for me being evil? (And with the way that the votes have gone down, I'm almost inclined to believe them. -_-) I'm just saying that because this TUN train seems almost a little forced. If he is an elim, I'm really going to eat my post next cycle, but I'm inclined to think that he is vil. Also, Luckspren is coming out of nowhere and joining the TUN bandwagon. He has posted very little, let alone voted. Why join the bandwagon now? Archer, I'm still a little suspicious of you, but I guess I have my own long list of suspicious actions. I've been very bad about getting reads, that's obviously something that I need to improve at!

I dislike bandwagoning, and that's not what I was doing. I'm very inexperienced at reading players, so I was scrambling about trying to find anyone who was at all suspicious to me. TUN was the only player that I couldn't come up with any V! indicators for. That's why I voted for him. 

I'm a she :P. I have posted very little, but that's due to lack of time, Wi-Fi, and any real idea what I'm talking about. The lack of votes is due to an inability to suspect people who haven't done anything clearly elimmy. (Is that a word?)

Sorry for lack of... anything helpful, I know I must be annoying to try to read from so little information :unsure:

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16 hours ago, The Unknown Novel said:

The problem with believing an e!me world is that requires Kas to either be very wrong or evil.

So you had claimed Tracker's to Kas before he voted for you, and then your claim of Truthfinder's was what got him to switch? Was there any plans along the lines of you tracking or roleblocking an action so he could see you couldn't have put in the kill or the shatter, and if so did anything happen with that? I can understand him switching if he thought you'd be able to prove an action other than kill/shatter, but you also have to prove that to everyone else since without that there's reason to vote for you.

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Posted (edited)

1 hour ago, JNV said:

I mean I was kinda waiting for Th eUnknown Novel to explain their opinions a little and they havent really interacted with my argument besides saying 'trust Kasimir' which is absurd also you have the result right you were added to PMs so surely you got their scan result Im trying to see if Luckspren not submitting one of those actions could be justified by a worthwhile lens action in the evil case or if it was just wobbles all around and honestly I kinda feel like people arent really engaging with my reasoning so much like do you understand why I want to know Lucksprens thing cause with Lucksprens vote right now its harder to see them paired and honestly I would have been willing to switch if The unknown Novel had made any attempt to defend themself beyond 'trust Kasimir'  

...you don't have a case against me other than you think that me teaming you and Conq up is weird. There's nothing to defend. The only case against me is me/Kas e/e. And even that argument is deeply flawed because my alignment has no bearing on Kas's, but If Kas is an Elim I'm almost guaranteed to be an elim. 

1 hour ago, JNV said:

Youre misrepresenting my argument and youre misrepresenting Kasimirs arguments and if anything this seals my vote and that might be a bad thing cause bad logic doesnt mean evil but this is just a blatant attempt to sway me by playing off my trust in a village Archer/Kasimir not even anyting youve done 

There's no argument to misrepresent. And what argument of Kas' am I misrepresenting? What have I done?

I started with a Voidstormer's Lense, and I had a mild suspicion of Kas, so I stole their lense. I got a Tracker's Lense. I used it on Kas because I assumed an elim who had their lense stolen would put in the kill or shatter. I'll ask Archer if I can reveal what I saw, but it was neither. Then Kas voted me, so I PMed them and explained, which made them trust me. I told them that I was leaving my vote on them as a trap for elims trying to save Wizard and they did the same.

19 minutes ago, Devotary of Spontaneity said:

So you had claimed Tracker's to Kas before he voted for you, and then your claim of Truthfinder's was what got him to switch? Was there any plans along the lines of you tracking or roleblocking an action so he could see you couldn't have put in the kill or the shatter, and if so did anything happen with that? I can understand him switching if he thought you'd be able to prove an action other than kill/shatter, but you also have to prove that to everyone else since without that there's reason to vote for you.

No, he left his vote as a trap for elims as I said above. I told him I had Truthfinders so he would know to suspect Conq if I died. As for my rb, I roleblocked Wizard who I believed to be an elim who would likely send in a last ditch kill or shatter.

Edited by The Unknown Novel
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3 minutes ago, The Unknown Novel said:

I started with a Voidstormer's Lense, and I had a mild suspicion of Kas, so I stole their lense. I got a Tracker's Lense. I used it on Kas because I assumed an elim who had their lense stolen would put in the kill or shatter. I'll ask Archer if I can reveal what I saw, but it was neither. Then Kas voted me, so I PMed them and explained, which made them trust me. I told them that I was leaving my vote on them as a trap for elims trying to save Wizard and they did the same.

No, he left his vote as a trap for elims as I said above. I told him I had Truthfinders so he would know to suspect Conq when I died. As for my rb, I roleblocked Wizard who I believed to be an elim who would likely send in a last ditch kill or shatter.

So your C3 action is unprovable but @Archer can corroborate C1 and C2. Kas did say his lens was stolen C1. E!you would have hesitated to guess Kas did nothing with at least three lenses being randomly distributed. It's not impossible actions-wise for e!you to have tracked Kas C2 but it would be an odd choice having just stolen his lenses. So if Archer can confirm that means you're unlikely to be an elim without him.

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That's time! The next turn should be up shortly.

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Cycle Five: Cute for the Same Reasons Kittens are Cute

Sorry, I'm in crunch time for a project and can't work on a write-up


A Joe in the Bush has been killed! They were a Free Kingdomer!
The Unknown Novel was killed! They were a Free Kingdomer!

Vote Count:

The Unknown Novel (4) - JVN, The_God_King, Devotary of Spontaneity, Luckspren
Conquestor (2) - The Unknown Novel, Archer
Luckspren (1) - Conquestor

Player List

Spoiler
  1. A Joe in the BushFree Kingdomer
  2. Steeldancer Free Kingdomer
  3. @JNV - Cori
  4. Matrim's Dice Free Kingdomer
  5. The Wandering Wizard Free Kingdomer
  6. Fifth Scholar Evil Librarian
  7. The Unknown NovelFree Kingdomer
  8. Droughtbringer Free Kingdomer
  9. @The_God_King - Mcgee
  10. @Archer - Grandpa Smedry (Replaced Kasimir)
  11. @Conquestor - Theonandrimicrus "Theo" Hathor the Third
  12. Ashbringer - Free Kingdomer
  13. @Devotary of Spontaneity - Dr. Sader
  14. @Luckspren - Adelaide Smedry

This turn ends Saturday, June 30 at 4:00 p.m. PDT. As a warning, I will probably not be available at rollover, so it will be extended. The thread will automatically lock and any votes/actions after that will not be counted.

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Okay, according to the calculations, the vils should be tied with the elims now. This is our last cycle to get this right. The village has to vote together! Now, to help with this, I have collected and organized the final votes of the last four cycles.

C1: 

Ashbringer (4) - Matrim's Dice, Fifth Scholar, Conquestor, Devotary of Spontaneity
Droughtbringer (1) - A Joe in the Bush
Luckspren (1) - Kasimir

C2:

Fifth Scholar (3) - A Joe in the Bush, The_God_King, Devotary of Spontaneity
The_God_King (2) - Fifth Scholar, Kasimir
The Unknown Novel (1) - The Wandering Wizard
The Wandering Wizard (1) - Conquestor

C3:

The Wandering Wizard (5) - A Joe in the Bush, The Unknown Novel, The_God_King, Kasimir, Conquestor
The Unknown Novel (3) - JNV, The Wandering Wizard, Devotary of Spontaneity

C4:

The Unknown Novel (4) - JNV, The_God_King, Devotary of Spontaneity, Luckspren
Conquestor (2) - The Unknown Novel, Archer
Luckspren (1) - Conquestor

C3 was more of a wash than I thought before this cycle. All I'm going to say is that Archer (Kasimir), has been rather suspicious. Yes, he didn't join the TUN bandwagon, but that was pretty much happening no matter. Also, before Fifth died in C2, they voted very much in the same manner. Another interesting thing is that while Luckspren has never defended themselves, both Fifth and Kas defended luckspren on C1 and C2. I'm not sure in what world that luckspren isn't on some sort of elim team. He has been defended whenever there was some danger of his death and he has only posted enough to survive the inactivity filter. Also, my lenses were stolen from me last night! 

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Posted (edited)

16 hours ago, Conquestor said:

Okay, according to the calculations, the vils should be tied with the elims now.

Which calculations were these? I'm all for assuming four elims to start out of an abundance of caution, but I'd be less confident in my guess of that than you seem. 

16 hours ago, Conquestor said:

both Fifth and Kas defended luckspren on C1 and C2. I'm not sure in what world that luckspren isn't on some sort of elim team. He has been defended whenever there was some danger of his death and he has only posted enough to survive the inactivity filter. Also, my lenses were stolen from me last night! 

*Kas-TUN doesn't work out*

hm must be Kas-Luckspren

:thonk:

16 hours ago, Conquestor said:

Also, my lenses 

I'd like to complain to the nearest English major about a single pair of glasses already being pluralized and that creating ambiguity about the number of glasses in play in sentences like this. 

Conq,

Quote

Conq: I want to join him in going after Fifth, but I want to give Fifth enough time to respond and well, it is the end of the cycle in an hour and ten minutes.

Quote

Conq (C3): Well, I was going to go after Fifth this time, but I'm glad we could catch him this time!

 

You didn't end up voting for Fifth here (C2), why was that?

Quote

Conq: "Fifth Scholar, why are you and Kazed (Kasimir) so intent on having Ashbringer talk?"

Quote

Fifth: Grischuk looked up from his survey of the “archive”—why nobody was allowed to use straightforward terms for things here was anyone’s guess—and turned to face Theo. The man, who seemed to be a sort of leader here, was looking at him with a suspicious eye, and he took his hands off an explanation of spider solitaire (the closest thing to a chess book he’d found) to look him in the face. “Vy do I vant zis man to talk?” he repeated, gesturing at AraRaash. “Because of all fools zat have opened zer mouths, it seems none of zem can give account of vat is going on. I am foreigner here, and seem to care more zan your own people who are actually in charge here. Vy should ve let him get by in silence ven ve know zere are infiltrators? If he vill not listen to von man, perhaps two vill open his lips.” Grischuk rustled the pages of his book uncomfortably, then slammed it back on the shelf, causing a few people around him to jump. “If you have a better idea for who ve should look to suspect, before zey have actually talked, I vood love to hear it.”

Quote

Conq: "You make a good point." Theo said looking at the man. "Although, I have to wonder about all the other random accusations goin around." He stepped up to Grischuk and put his hand out for an apologetic hand shake. "I realize that you are new around here and I apologize for my rudeness. As you can see, not everything is going well around here." Fifth Scholar

Would you mind explaining again why this (C1) was convincing enough to make you switch to voting on nobody? I can see retracting the vote, but it seemed you were most preoccupied with quickly getting rid of it, not playing the poking game. (I previously suggested you posted before reading the elim doc list of teammates and had to do damage control.)

Quote

Fifth: If there’s an elim on the Ash train, it’s probably Devo—Conq has seemed genuinely village in PMs (though take this with the Shai’tan gut that comes with all people who try to pocket me privately) and seemed to join the train out of actual suspicion/desire for information, whereas Devo…is her usual inscrutable self. At least to me.

And finally, any idea why Fifth felt so confident in your villageness (C2)? 

Conq 

EDIT: FYI, My Saturday just got busy so I'll be MIA for most of it

Edited by Archer
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Man, this is a dead cycle if I've ever seen one!

8 hours ago, Archer said:

Which calculations were these? I'm all for assuming four elims to start out of an abundance of caution, but I'd be less confident in my guess of that than you seem. 

I'm taking the worst case scenario that others suggested (there being four elims) and applied it to our current situation. Hopefully there are only three in total, but I'm going to assume that there is four in total. Also, I wasn't confident, which is why I used words like, should and probably. These were just the assumptions that I was basing the rest of my post off of.

8 hours ago, Archer said:

*Kas-TUN doesn't work out*

hm must be Kas-Luckspren

:thonk:

I never suggested a Kas-TUN team. That was other people. I actually was on the V!TUN team since C3.

8 hours ago, Archer said:

I'd like to complain to the nearest English major about a single pair of glasses already being pluralized and that creating ambiguity about the number of glasses in play in sentences like this. 

Conq,

I'll be honest, I'm confused about the complaint here. Isn't it good if the number of lenses in play are ambiguous? You know, with the whole elim shatter thing? Also, they are not glasses, but lenses. It takes 2 lenses to make a single pair of glasses... That doesn't sound very clear, but I swear that is what it is! B) <- (glasses!)

8 hours ago, Archer said:

You didn't end up voting for Fifth here (C2), why was that?

Well, like I explained that cycle. I wanted to give Fifth the chance to respond before I attempted to send them off to their death. The bigger reason was that I was much more suspicious of Wizard than I was of Fifth.

8 hours ago, Archer said:

Would you mind explaining again why this (C1) was convincing enough to make you switch to voting on nobody? I can see retracting the vote, but it seemed you were most preoccupied with quickly getting rid of it, not playing the poking game. (I previously suggested you posted before reading the elim doc list of teammates and had to do damage control.)

Well, I admit that, that specific situation wasn't handled the best by me. At the time, it made sense to me because I was unsure of who else to vote for (it was still early in the cycle, the first cycle) and I was legitimately happy with his response. Also, I most definitely would've looked at the elim doc before doing anything that cycle. I can't really point out from previous games that I've done this, but if you look at my posts this game, they are rather thorough. Also, Fifth was never at risk of dying that first cycle. If I was an elim, I would've kept my vote their for longer and then changed it closer to the end. This is a harder argument to make though, so I'll keep it there. Everything makes more sense in hindsight.

8 hours ago, Archer said:

And finally, any idea why Fifth felt so confident in your villageness (C2)? 

Maybe because I am one? The elims know who is village and who isn't. Also, you don't want to make your connections that obvious as elims. I wasn't even in trouble C2.

 

I'm still convinced that luckspren has been weirdly backed up and just active enough to stay in the game.

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Posted (edited)

And then there were six. Devo, JNV, TGK, Kas, Conq, Luck.

Devo: Voted on Fifth to break a tie. Fifth was an elim. Pretty clear Village.

TGK: Was voted on by Fifth as Fifth’s attempt as self-pres, voted on Fifth, distancing and bussing unlikely because he wasn’t doomed. Attacked, survived. Clear Village. 

JNV: ?? Voted for TUN for two cycles. Not much info clear enough that I can read it. 

Kas: It looks very sus that he’s voting along with Fifth on the TGK train (Fifth’s best chance of survival), but when he voted on TGK, he was the only vote on Fifth. ?? Village-ish.

Conq: Has a habit of voting, then taking it back off early in the round. Happened with Fifth, looks like distancing. End of cycle votes for Ash (village), WW (village), WW again (still village), me, and now me again. 

Elims: <Conq, JNV, maybe Kas/Archer if there is a fourth elim.>

 

18 hours ago, Conquestor said:

C3 was more of a wash than I thought before this cycle. All I'm going to say is that Archer (Kasimir), has been rather suspicious. Yes, he didn't join the TUN bandwagon, but that was pretty much happening no matter. Also, before Fifth died in C2, they voted very much in the same manner. Another interesting thing is that while Luckspren has never defended themselves, both Fifth and Kas defended luckspren on C1 and C2. I'm not sure in what world that luckspren isn't on some sort of elim team. He has been defended whenever there was some danger of his death and he has only posted enough to survive the inactivity filter. Also, my lenses were stolen from me last night! 

I am not an elim in the currently existing world. I've posted to survive, but also some player reads. I've explained that I have IRL reasons for my inactivity several times. I am, again, female. 

I have been defended by Fifth and Kas, but here's a post (it won't quote properly because the thread is locked) where Fifth is jumping on Kas as being sus for voting on me and sus in general. They haven't acted particularly teamed with each other or with me. 

Start Fifth's post from C1

Well, we do need to kill someone, and so far none of the Exe targets have been particularly responsive save Matrim, who is no longer under threat. :P I would eventually like @Kasimir to explain why he went onto Luckspren and not back onto Ash, but I’m not gonna vote him for it (especially since he probably won’t be back). Overall I have no problem leaving my vote on Ash, especially if he has been on the Shard, and if the Exe develops elsewhere I’ll look at reasons to switch. Nobody has really been pinging my gut so far except Kas and Mat (very lightly), which is weird, so I don’t know if people should say more or if I’m just not paying as close attention to things as I ought >>

End Fifth's post from C1

@Conquestor, are there any other suspicious things I've done, or clarifications of existing things, you want to know? I'll answer whenever I get Wi-Fi. 

Edited by Luckspren
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So @Archer since TUN was village I assume he did correctly guess your C2 action?

Luckspren village read comes just from Kas's claim to have tracked her C1 I think. It seems Kas did indeed have a tracker's lens since TUN stole it. She couldn't have put in the kill or the shatter if Archer is village, only Archer has any idea whether her lens is good enough that Fifth would have put in the kill if Luck is a regular elim. E!Kas clearing a teammate would be a bold play but certainly isn't impossible.

TUN thought a Conq + JNV team made sense. That makes more sense than Conq + Luck or Archer given the votes this and previous cycle. Although JNV also indicated they'd go after Conq this cycle if TUN was village and before that suggested a JNV and Luck team so who knows. The lack of votes C1 and C2 makes it hard to tell with both of them.

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