Mid-Range Game 59: Alcatraz vs the Lens Destructors

[Kasimir]

2 hours ago, The Unknown Novel said:

but on a pure numbers game, Fifth was dead last cycle.

The train difference was one vote though. Even in a three-member team world, any two of them (Fifth included) could've made it a draw with the actual Fifth train by going onto Wiz, or an actual ML just stacking further onto TGK. Maybe not for Wiz if Wiz is a teammate, but TGK looks Village off the votes and I feel that it doesn't take substantive thread skills for a decently active player to cast TGK's Fifth train as the typical defensive 'no u!' Elim vote to contest in thread. Which is why I lean a bit more towards 'didn't have the ability', I suppose.

Four member team should definitely have the capacity to contest it unless they basically have an inactive and that's an assumption I don't know is warranted.

2 hours ago, The Unknown Novel said:

Of course, that correlates with an inactive team as well, but everyone but you, Joe, and maybe Conq fit that bill. And me I guess.

Fair point.

[The_God_King]

7 hours ago, JNV said:

So looking at your C2 reads list your read on Wizard is 'possibly cautious new player possibly evil' like do you have no reevaluation on The Unknown Novel for example who you had no real read on and theyve talked a bit more now no reevaluation on Joe or Kasimir or Devotary no reevaluation on anyone at all really

Maybe I didnt clarify the best. Other peoples thoughts summed up my same ideas but it’s good to clarify what I support.

Wizard was defended by Fifth making him very suspicious.

Novel has been in a bit of a heated discussion with Kas. I doubt both are elim but I feel that one is. Currently leaning towards Novel but I want to see how Wizard flips.

Joe and Devotary supported the exe of Fifth when they didn’t have to. which leaves me thinking they’re village. It would be an incredibly Interesting play to exe a teammate while they weren’t solidly on the block 

 

[Elandera]

This is your 10-hour warning! Get your votes and actions in before it's too late!

[Conquestor]

Votes this cycle: 

Wandering Wizard: Joe, Conq, TGK

The Unkown Novel: Kas (Voted for him twice?), JNV

Kasimir: TUN

I'm still very unsure about you wizard. It just seems like (I said cycle 1), that you are trying to fly under the radar and to not get yourself exposed, which I see more as an Elim thing to do. It's also interesting that Fifth tried so hard to protect you, going as far as to make himself an open target to do so. I am actually leaning more towards Tun being vil, but only somewhat. 

[The Wandering Wizard]

1 hour ago, Conquestor said:

I'm still very unsure about you wizard. It just seems like (I said cycle 1), that you are trying to fly under the radar and to not get yourself exposed, which I see more as an Elim thing to do. It's also interesting that Fifth tried so hard to protect you, going as far as to make himself an open target to do so. I am actually leaning more towards Tun being vil, but only somewhat. 

It's just how I tend to play. As I tend not to write long posts. 

[The_God_King]

16 minutes ago, The Wandering Wizard said:

It's just how I tend to play. As I tend not to write long posts. 

I can understand not writing extensive posts. I’m not as eloquent as some of the other players and it definitely shows in the Length of my posts. I would love to here a defense or what your thoughts are. I don’t want to exe a player without hearing a defense or what their vote would be. 

 

 

[The Wandering Wizard]

4 minutes ago, The_God_King said:

I can understand not writing extensive posts. I’m not as eloquent as some of the other players and it definitely shows in the Length of my posts. I would love to here a defense or what your thoughts are. I don’t want to exe a player without hearing a defense or what their vote would be. 

Well my vote is being pushed towards TUN from rereading the old posts and my general suspicions, but voting for him will just get him to vote for me and get me killed. Which now seems inevitable before the end of the game. Currently my possible elim pool is <TUN, Conq, Devo> and maybe <Luck or Steel> but they aren't around enough for me to have any real read on them. I'll take the shot as I don't know if I'll be on long now or have a chance before the cycle ends TUN.

[The Unknown Ajah]

Kas. Wizard. was waiting for that. Doesn't guarantee e!Wizard, as he's demonstrated a strong desire to stay alive, but hey, I don’t like dying either.

[Devotary of Spontaneity]

So 3-3 tie. JNV is backing up Wizard, makes e!Wizard + v!JNV less likely, though there's no reason the elims can't self-target with shatter.  It wastes a turn where they could be destroying village lenses in exchange for increased trust (usually) on one person.  E!TUN definitely switches to Wizard and v!TUN presumably does as well. And there it is. Let's put it back to a tie with TUN.

[The Unknown Ajah]

Don't like that vote from Devo, feels like it's definitely trying to protect Wizard, but Devo also vote late so might not be completely evil.

[Conquestor]

26 minutes ago, Devotary of Spontaneity said:

So 3-3 tie. JNV is backing up Wizard, makes e!Wizard + v!JNV less likely, though there's no reason the elims can't self-target with shatter.  It wastes a turn where they could be destroying village lenses in exchange for increased trust (usually) on one person.  E!TUN definitely switches to Wizard and v!TUN presumably does as well. And there it is. Let's put it back to a tie with TUN.

This doesn't say if you're suspicious of them or not though! Why make it a 50-50 tie? I do appreciate that your voting, but other than the whole tie thing, do you want to see Wizard saved or see Tun dead? Well, I guess there is the third option of seeing carnage and making hings more interesting, but that's not very village helpful. 

 

EDIT:

What TUN? I mean, yes he voted late, but if your worried about your friend getting exed, then you might step in no matter what. 

Edited July 26, 2022 by Conquestor
TUN reply

[Devotary of Spontaneity]

1 minute ago, Conquestor said:

This doesn't say if you're suspicious of them or not though! Why make it a 50-50 tie? I do appreciate that your voting, but other than the whole tie thing, do you want to see Wizard saved or see Tun dead?

I'm suspicious of both of them, as I've said. I can see Fifth voting to save Wizard, and him voting TGK instead of TUN because the latter wasn't an option. JNV's defense of Wizard makes me prefer to see if anyone will change their minds to defend Wizard or TUN instead of just killing the easier one to exe.

[Kasimir]

TUN 

Wiz 

[The Wandering Wizard]

Kas doesn't want TUN to die. They are both elims. Last time Kas last minute changed, he said something other than just the sudden change. Out of time.

[Elandera]

That's time!

[Elandera]

Cycle Four: Bury Your Bones in an Archaeological Dig!

write-up pending

---

The Wandering Wizard has died! They were a Free Kingdomer!
The_God_King was attacked, but survived!
Steeldancer has died of inactivity! They were a Free Kingdomer!

Vote Count:

The Wandering Wizard (5) - A Joe in the Bush, The Unknown Novel, The_God_King, Kasimir, Conquestor
The Unknown Novel (3) - JNV, The Wandering Wizard, Devotary of Spontaneity

Everyone welcome @Archer, who has agreed to step in and replace Kasimir.

Player List:

Spoiler

1. @A Joe in the Bush - Sabenta Smedry
2. Steeldancer - Free Kingdomer
3. @JNV - Cori
4. Matrim's Dice - Free Kingdomer
5. The Wandering Wizard - Free Kingdomer
6. Fifth Scholar - Evil Librarian
7. @The Unknown Novel - Syrus Smedry
8. Droughtbringer - Free Kingdomer
9. @The_God_King - Mcgee
10. @Archer - Grandpa Smedry (Replaced Kasimir)
11. @Conquestor - Theonandrimicrus "Theo" Hathor the Third
12. Ashbringer - Free Kingdomer
13. @Devotary of Spontaneity - Dr. Sader
14. @Luckspren - Adelaide Smedry

This cycle ends Thursday, June 28, at 4 p.m. PDT.

Edited July 27, 2022 by Elandera

[The_God_King]

That was a chaotic end to that round. I’m going to lead off with The Unknown Novel . My suspicions from previous rounds still stands. I was expecting the attack on myself and it’s nice to see im still alive. 
 

current suspicions fall on TUN and Archer (sorry pal, Kas’s switch was an interesting last second move). I have some lighter suspicions on conq as well. 
 

If I’m right on all three that means that all 3 voted on Wizard. That would be a strong move but they seemed somewhat spaced out which would have hidden them. I’m open to dissenting opinions on who is an elim

[Conquestor]

Welcome Archer! Also, what the actual heck. I thought that pretty much everyone voting for wizard was a vil. There are eight of us left, (good job on surviving TGK!). Also, TUN had 3 votes on them, right? @Elandera

I honestly don't know what happened with that Lynch. Sorry for your death wizard... 

Devotary of Spontaneity, I dislike your last minute votes, even if in this case it might've saved a vil. It could've been a ploy to make yourself look like a vil. Either way, I'm curious about what you have to say. 

[Elandera]

1 minute ago, Conquestor said:

Also, TUN had 3 votes on them, right?

This has been fixed. Thanks!

[Conquestor]

Actually, I went back through the votes and I want to ask Archer/Kas, why such a last minute vote change. Wizard might've been on to something before he died. I'll have to get back to you sooner Devotary. This a much more pressing issue. Also, I know that I just voted for you, but if I'm being honest, I really don't want Archer/Kas to be Elim, but that is a rather interesting move. I guess like how this one is... Well, let the consequences follow I guess! 

[Devotary of Spontaneity]

I doubt TUN, Conq, and Archer are all evil since 4 elims in a 14 player game is a lot. The remaining elims easily could be in that pile and I'm inclined to start with TUN since e!Kas's vote switch doesn't make a lot of sense with v!TUN and e!Conq would care less about the vote if both alternatives were village.

15 minutes ago, Conquestor said:

Well, let the consequences follow I guess! 

The conqesuences are that I'll vote early this one time.

[Luckspren]

Hi everyone, sorry I haven't posted much; it won't get any better now, since I have limited Wi-Fi access for the next two weeks. 

Here are the reads I was going to post last cycle, but was too late:

Spoiler

 

Devo: Voted for Fifth. Could’ve saved instead if elim, highly unlikely E!

Joe: Ditto Devo

Steel: Did nothing whatsoever, no read

JNV: Gut reading Village, probably just because friendly, funny PMs. 

WW: Maybe I’m just blind, but would someone please compile the case against him so I can see what everyone is suspicious of? I do see an odd spot in C2 where WW votes TUN out of ‘pure self-preservation’ when a Fifth vote would’ve been better self-pres. Is that what’s being jumped on?

TUN: Voted on by the apparently sus WW for supposed self-pres, and JNV for no reason given. Hasn’t done anything inherently V! or E! as far as I saw. 

TGK: Voted for Fifth, voted on by Fifth, could’ve tried to save him and didn’t, voted before bussing would have made any sense, would’ve taken it off if distancing. Strong V!

Kas: Voted for Fifth, lots of activity, seems helpful, medium V

Conq: Voted on by Fifth, not certainty but likely V!

TUN because I expect at least some of the WW train was E! and wanted WW dead more than they did TUN. 

[Archer]

“Unnecessarily locked doors!” Grandpa Smedry bellowed, bursting into the thread. “I’m practically a washing machine with hiccups, because I almost missed the first cycle! Where’d those dead bodies come from?”

*

Hi, all. I got a long straw because I don’t have to scratch my head trying to read Kas this game. :D. If you have any questions about their posts, I’ll do my best to provide additional context from PMs and argue theoreticals for why they might have said what they did. Otherwise, I’ll be going off of my own reads.

This post was written Tuesday afternoon, before seeing Kas’ PMs. I’ve elected to only look at the first two Cycles, then I’ll examine C3 once it begins. I don’t know the outcome of C3 and I’m too lazy to edit this, so ignore the mentions of dead people. (Future Archer here: yup, still too lazy)

TL;DR I strongly suspect Conq. I have reasons to confidently read Joe, Devo, TGK, and Kas as village. Steel is null for inactivity. I don’t think WW or TUN are e-e with Conq, so my suspect pool is JNV and Luckspren off their flip, but Kas’ scan would direct me towards JNV first.  

Acronyms: e-e means evil teammates, +v means seems villagey, +e means seems evil, C# means cycle #, CW means counter-wagon

Cycle One:

---Mid-C1, Fifth said ‘thread’s dead’ and +1ed Kas’ Ash vote. This appears to have been a case on an elim wanting certainty about the exe when timezones meant they wouldn’t be around for rollover - not an attempt to protect a teammate because everyone being voted on at that point was village. Still, the urgency was notable. Nevermind, it was earlier in the round than I thought.

---And possibly justified because Conquestor cast the next vote on Fifth, which made it something like 1:1:1:2 – too tight margins for a distancing gambit. But they then quickly retracted after Fifth responded, so was this a case of them posting before reading the elim doc and having to backtrack? Their retractions felt too easy – like Mat, I don’t buy that there was indicators of a bandwagon. (+v,+e)

---At this point, Joe suggests leaving the all village votes tied, which would be great for the elims. (+e) But it was the opposite approach to Fifth, which is non e-e (+v).

---God King blatantly holding his vote in reserve mid C1 is also scummy under the circumstances, as it avoids the need to backtrack to save a teammate. (+e) (He continues to close out the round, when there probably wasn’t any elims in danger, which looks like an elim not wanting to cast the deciding vote and take the ehat for it.)

---Devo made an interesting point in the back half of C1, saying:

“Conquestor for his vote on Fifth when I thought it was clear that there wasn’t real malicious intent on Fifth’s part, and then also for Con’s quick retraction of said vote.” -Mat

“Why did you think it was clear there wasn't malicious intent? Putting a second vote on Ash indicates a desire on Fifth's part to kill him, which may or may not be malicious depending on his alignment.” -Devo

My instinct is to village read it for raising the specter of e!Fifth unnecessarily, but then I thought, maybe TMI makes it easier to catch the assumption Mat was making. And it’s really an anti-Mat argument, not an anti-Fifth one.

----Kas asking ‘if you had an action scan, who would you scan’ is so blatantly info fishing that it must be village discussion starting. (+v)

---Wizard-Conq not e-e for WW responding to being voted on by backing off their vote. The elims gain nothing from playing out that interaction. (later Archer note: Conq-TUN not e-e for C2 discussion)

---JNV blatantly holding his vote in reserve late C1 is also scummy under the circumstances, as it avoids the need to backtrack to save a teammate. (+e)

---More village points to me for the Fifth-Kas EoD interaction where Kas questions the Ash kill and thinks Fifth is defending Luckspren. High effort e-e discussions in thread are rare.

---Big fan of Devo’s ‘JNV defended Ash so I vote Ash’ argument at EoD. (+v)

---Interesting that Luckspren was on near rollover and made a post saying they won’t vote – elims like to lurk near rollover, so this is past me telling the current thread that I like the Luckspren kill choice. (plus it helps the v!Kas argument. I really hope he isn’t evil, that’ll be awkward.)

Cycle Two:

---Kas (Kasimir not Kazan) looks good for the mindset of pushing Fifth after an unsatisfying round ending. Basically calls out the elim strategy, presumably. (+v)  I’m confused why they decided to crowd source scan suggestions instead of bringing it up in PMs – maybe future me will find out the answer to that. TUN, did you not see the post where he just… openly asked for scan targets? Seems like a v!slip if the elims stole that lens. (+v)

---Noting the scan Kas got on Luckspren.

---Dislike Joe’s argument for killing Luck because it’s a high value flip because it was a ho-hum round. (+e)

---Devo pointing out the thread state having a lot of people holding votes at EoD aligns with my thinking. (+v)

---I disagree with TGK’s surprisingly frank thought process for abstaining C1. The math I always refer back to is which voting composition has a greater chance of killing an elim – one where half the players voting are elims, or one where only a quarter of the players voting are elims? I prefer the upside of potentially hitting an elim to the essentially zero chance that the elims who take my voteshare will kill one of their teammates. But I’ll chalk this up to playstyle differences. On that note, I usually assume the elims are more likely to park a vote somewhere than villagers are, leading to disproportionate representation in the vote count, but the amount of new to me playstyles involved is messing with that guess.

---I’ll confirm that TUN is playing to their usual playstyle, but I haven’t opposed them as an elim recently so I couldn’t tell you how it differs across alignments. WW is also playing as usual, and I don’t know what e!they look like.

---Clocking that JNV was reading Drought as village, which might explain the NK. By the way JNV, Dinogate is the conspiracy to kill dinosaurs (who can talk and are very much not extinct), enlarge their bones, and bury them to confuse the Hushlanders.

---Kas’ reads post puts Fifth as the top sus, and Fifth replies by counter-sussing Kas (+v). With ten hours to go before rollover, that’s where I’d start to feel uncomfortable as an elim.

---Fifth defends Conq (+e) and suggest Devo is a better pick (+v).

---Conq Lens claiming is a scummy move. (+e) As is the light info fishing followup.

---TGK is village for that impressive Fifth vote. Joe and Devo also get lock village reads for their contributions. There’s no reason for team evil to be in on that sudden train. I think it’s notable that there was no activity for the last hour besides those three votes. The TGK CW was right there – why didn’t they tie it?

 Conq

32 minutes ago, Conquestor said:

Actually, I went back through the votes and I want to ask Archer/Kas, why such a last minute vote change. 

Hello! Which round are you referring to?  Edit: should have read C3, let me see if there's something in the PMs and I'll get back to you

Edited July 27, 2022 by Archer

[Luckspren]

Two possibilities: <WW train was pure> <WW train wasn’t pure>

<WW train was pure> is unlikely, but if so, <JNV, Devo> as the remaining elims. I don’t believe it, considering E!Devo could probably have saved Fifth, and JNV is coming across V! not sure why, gut reads? Funny in PM’s at start. 

<WW train wasn’t pure> is highly likely, so there should be at least one elim, maybe both, in there. <Joe, TUN, TGK, Kas, Conq>

Joe: E!Joe probably wouldn’t have let Fifth die

TGK: Voted for Fifth, voted on by Fifth, could’ve tried to save him and didn’t, voted before bussing would have made any sense, would probably have taken it off if distancing, and now he was attacked as well. Strongest V! read out of all the players.

Conq: Was voted on by Fifth. Not much, but still a V! indicator. 

Kas: Voted for Fifth. Not much, but still V! indicator.

TUN: I have no reason to believe either V! or E!

 

Suspect pool: <TUN, JNV>, because I have V! reads on everyone else from voting history, and nothing on them. Possibly <Conq, Kas/Archer> but not really. JNV or TUN, not both, because JNV broke a tied exe to vote TUN. 

 

Hi Archer, probably going to need to read that a couple times to comprehend properly, but thanks for your thoughts! 

Edited July 27, 2022 by Luckspren

[Archer]

59 minutes ago, Conquestor said:

Actually, I went back through the votes and I want to ask Archer/Kas, why such a last minute vote change. Wizard might've been on to something before he died. I'll have to get back to you sooner Devotary. This a much more pressing issue. Also, I know that I just voted for you, but if I'm being honest, I really don't want Archer/Kas to be Elim, but that is a rather interesting move. I guess like how this one is... Well, let the consequences follow I guess! 

This theory presumes a bit about Kas' headspace, but I think it's close to the truth. If you check this post from mid-round, Kas said they suspected WW and TUN fairly evenly. They then chose TUN and had an exchange. My guess is that the conversation either convinced them that TUN was a worse target than WW, or made Kas weary of the confrontation. In the spirit of the latter, they cast a naked vote at the end because they didn't trust themselves to be appropriately emotionally neutral if they offered additional explanation. If he had added reasons, they'd probably have focused on the fact that he was village reading everyone who wasn't about to be filtered killed besides those two.