Elandera

Mid-Range Game 59: Alcatraz vs the Lens Destructors

238 posts in this topic

14 hours ago, Kasimir said:

You could argue it the other way around: Elims are more sensitive to survival, Villagers dgaf. (Yes, I know, don't remind me about MR56 Mat.) Elims may have a team but risk drawing connections between them, so would favour self-pres votes anyway. (Elims welcome to prove me wrong - makes vote analysis easier, thanks :P )

I do feel which way to lean is more a personal meta judgement, but don't feel we have a strong basis for making a personal meta judgement in Wiz's case.

If Wizard was a panicked elim throwing a vote on whoever he could I would have expected there to be follow-up, or to have voted for Fifth since he already had a vote. Could be Wizard and Fifth, though he could have voted on TUN as well unless he was lying about not seeing Kas's vote. If Wizard and Fifth aren't evil TUN plausibly is, but as much as I feel like being silent merely ensures you'll continue to be wrong later it isn't unusual for TUN not to vote. Maybe look at him next cycle. Now that Joe's shifted, it's easier to check Wizard and Fifth by voting for Fifth Scholar.

 

0

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

This cycle is closed! Please stop PMing until the next turn is posted, and when you resume, please mark Cycle 3 on your first PM!

0

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Cycle Three: Distinguishing Between Popsicles and Insanity

Well, that's one librarian that's no longer a problem. I was starting to get a little worried there. Remember that whole popsicle conundrum? I was starting to think it was impossible. The librarians really have their network into the Lens Crafters. But it turns out I was wrong (yes, surprising, I know. I can be wrong sometimes). It was simply improbable.


Fifth Scholar has been executed! They were an Evil Librarian!
Droughtbringer has been killed! They were a Free Kingdomer!

Vote Count:
Fifth Scholar (3) - A Joe in the Bush, The_God_King, Devotary of Spontaneity
The_God_King (2) - Fifth Scholar, Kasimir
The Unknown Novel (1) - The Wandering Wizard
The Wandering Wizard (1) - Conquestor

Player List
 

Spoiler
  1. @A Joe in the Bush - Sabenta Smedry
  2. @Steeldancer - DumDum Rock
  3. @JNV - Cori
  4. Matrim's DiceFree Kingdomer
  5. @The Wandering Wizard - Alfonzo Smedry
  6. Fifth ScholarEvil Librarian
  7. @The Unknown Novel - Syrus Smedry
  8. DroughtbringerFree Kingdomer
  9. @The_God_King - Mcgee
  10. @Kasimir - Kazed Sarkar
  11. @Conquestor - Theonandrimicrus "Theo" Hathor the Third
  12. Ashbringer - Free Kingdomer
  13. @Devotary of Spontaneity - Dr. Sader
  14. @Luckspren - Adelaide Smedry

This cycle ends Tuesday, June 26 at 4 p.m. PDT.

3

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Posted (edited)

Wow, I'm not surprised Fifth was an Elim I still didn't expect it to pan out. I feel that Fifth was following Kasimir's lead to try to throw suspicion on him. I could be wrong but that's my current hunch. I need to read through the last cycle to try and determine the probabilities of who else is elim. I will post my thoughts soon.

 

We're now down to three, possibly two, elims. 
 

edit:

weird wording

Edited by The_God_King
0

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Posted (edited)

Sabenta Smedry rolled into the Archive on her skateboard, popped a 360, landed it, whipped off her sunglasses and pulled the trigger on her noisemaker. "Woo! We got'em!"

 

Wow I was so stressed when I switched my vote, I had no evidence for it, just gut reads. Thank glass it worked out. I'm not going to do a full read, but I'll put down my thoughts:

Wandering Wizard - It really feels like the Exe on TGK was an attempt by Fifth to save them. It would really only make sense if the other elims were also less active or just not online during the last 12 hours of the cycle.
Steeldancer - I'm getting less comfortable thinking they are a villager as they haven't done anything about this game publicly. I'd love it if they did.
JNV - Ehhh, I'm just kinda neutral on them.
Novel - Ehhh, I'm just kinda neutral on them.
Luck - Nothing that happened last cycle has made me doubt them. Other than how much Fifth has defended them. Hmm. Maybe they are evil?
The God King - I'm willing to declare them a Villager in my eyes. Fifth voting on them to tie them with WW makes sense if WW is an elim, as TGK was the only one with votes enough for Fifth to tie the vote, and then hopefully have WW vote as well to break the tie.
Kas - I'm still inclined to think of them as a Villager.
Conq - Nothing that happened last cycle has made me trust them any less.
Devo - I think they're a villager. If they're an eliminator they're either amazingly willing to bus a teammate, or WW, Fifth, and TGK are all Elims with them.

EDIT: To be clear, I am voting for Wandering Wizard. That's not just a coloring thing.

Edited by A Joe in the Bush
2

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Well, I was going to go after Fifth this time, but I'm glad we could catch him this time! Having two votes on wandering wizard didn't do much before he got off, but I'm curious to see how he'll react when he has the time for it this cycle. Also, I said so much last cycle that I'm kind of posted out. I'll respond to stuff tomorrow. One more quick thought though... Why kill drought and not someone else? 

1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 hour ago, Conquestor said:

Why kill drought and not someone else? 

Maybe they considered it a safe kill? With Fifth as the exe they may have wanted a kill that would provide limited information for the village.
 

Putting on my elim-TGK hat for a second. I would probably aim for a mis-lynch this cycle and get another kill while aiming to shatter lenses as much as I can. This would even out the loss of Fifth.


 

also:

still haven’t done my C2 review. I’ll get that done tomorrow but I’m feeling similar to Joe and Conq

0

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Just popping around for a quick inactivity warning for @Steeldancer and @Luckspren! If you don't post this turn, you will be replaced or removed from the game if I can't find enough pinch-hitters.

0

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I still need a short break from this game, and I think that's the best solution, as a preventive measure. No full re-read, just thoughts:

  • TGK and Joe look pretty Village to me given that train. TGK could've unvoted if it'd just been meant for distancing, and potentially Joe wouldn't have gotten on either.
  • Devo somewhat so, a bit less due to Devo's known late-voting habits and LG73.
  • Shrug on Conq - but the fact he didn't intervene either doesn't look bad. Similar assessment to Devo.
  • Still leaning V on Luckspren - a postulated E!Luckspren, E!Fifth team would have to have pretty kayana strats for Luck not to send in the kill...unless there's a more inactive teammate. I see Joe's hypothesising an inactive team which I could somewhat see - a 3-2 lynch should not have been anywhere this close. Either way, Luckspren is basically on inactivity death row - see Steel comment.
  • Steel, like Luckspren, is about to be hit by the inactivity filter today. I don't feel a vote on Steel this early is productive, but feel that since one inactive is bound to be replaced by a pinch-hitter, going that way for a profile lynch doesn't feel as awful as it normally would.
  • JNV - Might be absurdly pocketed but am not as willing to go with JNV, even if nothing else, on the strength of posts.
  • Within the same activity profile, there's Wiz and TUN. Two votes on Wiz already, so let's go with TUN to open things up.
2 hours ago, The_God_King said:

Putting on my elim-TGK hat for a second. I would probably aim for a mis-lynch this cycle and get another kill while aiming to shatter lenses as much as I can. This would even out the loss of Fifth.

It's good to know that the Elims haven't been aiming to ML or kill or shatter lenses before! :P 

4 hours ago, Conquestor said:

Why kill drought and not someone else? 

Welcome to the new SE meta where we've long since stopped just killing vocal players and apparently also go for what people like to call 'low info kills.'

I tend to associate them more with Araris teams, though I'm not sure that says anything more than the fact that I've played E!Araris an absurd number of times.

2

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
15 minutes ago, Kasimir said:

Within the same activity profile, there's Wiz and TUN. Two votes on Wiz already, so let's go with TUN to open things up.

Why do I keep getting lumped into the low activity group? I have been the third highest poster the last two cycles, Wizard had a third of the number of posts I did. At this point if I'm null it's your own fault, and if your only reason for sussing me is my perceived inactivity, then there isn't a reason. 

Sorry if that's a little heated, but make sure what you say is true before you use it as reasoning to vote someone.

0

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
49 minutes ago, The Unknown Novel said:

Why do I keep getting lumped into the low activity group? I have been the third highest poster the last two cycles, Wizard had a third of the number of posts I did. At this point if I'm null it's your own fault, and if your only reason for sussing me is my perceived inactivity, then there isn't a reason. 

Sorry if that's a little heated, but make sure what you say is true before you use it as reasoning to vote someone.

Why are you assuming I'm voting on you for low activity simpliciter? If I were, I'd file you with Luckspren as well as Luckspren hasn't said a word in thread since C1.

You are in the same activity profile because Wiz voted in self-pres, and you have also been extremely defensive (I've noted it's part of your meta, and that factors into my read of you, yes), and neither of you in my view are teammates likely to get on and swing a lynch in favour of saving Fifth. It's that simple. It's not about raw post numbers.

52 minutes ago, The Unknown Novel said:

At this point if I'm null it's your own fault

Good to know. TUN.

0

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

To those thstare wondering. Yes I was on earlier but only had time to read through not respond. I will be on more now that it isn't Sunday. And sorry @JNV. I tried to pass the lens but it got shattered. 

0

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 hour ago, The Wandering Wizard said:

To those thstare wondering. Yes I was on earlier but only had time to read through not respond. I will be on more now that it isn't Sunday. And sorry @JNV. I tried to pass the lens but it got shattered. 

Wait? What lens? This seems pretty important... Are you someone that is more active in pms than in the thread wizard? 

0

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
17 minutes ago, Conquestor said:

Wait? What lens?

Couriers lens

18 minutes ago, Conquestor said:

This seems pretty important... Are you someone that is more active in pms than in the thread wizard? 

Not particularly. I'm just trying to find a balance.

0

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Posting to not get inactivity killed. Opening a google docs for analysis and will post once it's halfway coherent, which will not be today because madly packing the RV. 

0

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Bye Fifth may your afterlife be the wilderness of Montana with many trees and salmon and berries and no nightmares of bear college you were a good PM buddy even if you were evil and Im impressed that a bear became a librarian and to anyone whos not Fifth and doesnt understand what I just said its none of yoru business 

2 hours ago, The Wandering Wizard said:

To those thstare wondering. Yes I was on earlier but only had time to read through not respond. I will be on more now that it isn't Sunday. And sorry @JNV. I tried to pass the lens but it got shattered. 

..........................huh

You really should have asked me before saying stuff like this Wizard I dont appreciate you airing our private things like this maybe just told me or something or at least asked this but yeah in case people didnt catch that Wizard had a courier lens they told me they were going to pass and apparently its shattered now so yeah 

1 hour ago, Conquestor said:

Wait? What lens? This seems pretty important... Are you someone that is more active in pms than in the thread wizard? 

They really arent 

1 hour ago, The Wandering Wizard said:

Couriers lens

Why are people saying all of this like this is not something you need to share first Conquestor now you why is everyone who has a secret with me suddenly spilling their guts whats going on 

Wizard I honestly want you dead right now and I cant tell if thats cause Im still a little annoyed at you or cause I find this move of yours suspicious or cause you have been a solid blob of nothing and I can kinda see what youre doing but gaaaaaaaaaaaaaah you couldve asked or you could have left me out of it or whatever honestly I do not have words to convey the wobbles in my head right now 

Theres 10 people alive 8 2 probably 3 cycles my pool of evil is Steeldancer Wizard The Unknown Novel Conquestor Steels about to wobble out of existence so kinda ingore him for now both Wizard and Conquestor have made... questionable choices when it comes to finormation sharing but being illogical doesnt mean evil and I cant help but think evil would be like any amount of careful about that sorta thing again my brain is full of wobbles so kinda confused honestly Ill be back in a bit when the brain is less wobbly

@Elandera can the evil team target a librarian for shattering 

1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
34 minutes ago, JNV said:

can the evil team target a librarian for shattering 

Yes.

0

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
2 hours ago, JNV said:

Bye Fifth may your afterlife be the wilderness of Montana with many trees and salmon and berries and no nightmares of bear college you were a good PM buddy even if you were evil and Im impressed that a bear became a librarian and to anyone whos not Fifth and doesnt understand what I just said its none of yoru business 

..........................huh

You really should have asked me before saying stuff like this Wizard I dont appreciate you airing our private things like this maybe just told me or something or at least asked this but yeah in case people didnt catch that Wizard had a courier lens they told me they were going to pass and apparently its shattered now so yeah 

They really arent 

Why are people saying all of this like this is not something you need to share first Conquestor now you why is everyone who has a secret with me suddenly spilling their guts whats going on 

Wizard I honestly want you dead right now and I cant tell if thats cause Im still a little annoyed at you or cause I find this move of yours suspicious or cause you have been a solid blob of nothing and I can kinda see what youre doing but gaaaaaaaaaaaaaah you couldve asked or you could have left me out of it or whatever honestly I do not have words to convey the wobbles in my head right now 

Theres 10 people alive 8 2 probably 3 cycles my pool of evil is Steeldancer Wizard The Unknown Novel Conquestor Steels about to wobble out of existence so kinda ingore him for now both Wizard and Conquestor have made... questionable choices when it comes to finormation sharing but being illogical doesnt mean evil and I cant help but think evil would be like any amount of careful about that sorta thing again my brain is full of wobbles so kinda confused honestly Ill be back in a bit when the brain is less wobbly

JNV I am sorry about that. I was not thinking and should have asked you first about sharing what I did. 

Currently I have TUN and Conq in my pool of possible elims.

0

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

After reviewing cycle two I think my previous reads from C2 haven't changed much. Right now Wandering Wizard stands as the most likely elim. I don't feel like there's a good defense or another suspect right now. I have a feeling that SteelDancer or LuckSpren may be an elim which could be hurting the elim team. It is a bit hard to figure out if they are guilty without any interactions

 

19 hours ago, Kasimir said:

It's good to know that the Elims haven't been aiming to ML or kill or shatter lenses before! :P 

Haha, that's what I get for doing a post right before I fall asleep. I should have clarified what I actually meant. The Elims will probably be more aggressive because they need to catch up. I could see an elim hiding behind their lense to avoid easy detection. Scanning and encouraging giving lenses could be a way to slow down the Elims while gathering information. I'm not sure what that would look like or if it would work. It could be a way to soft clear people with suspicions on them. 

0

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Posted (edited)

18 hours ago, Kasimir said:

You are in the same activity profile because Wiz voted in self-pres, and you have also been extremely defensive (I've noted it's part of your meta, and that factors into my read of you, yes), and neither of you in my view are teammates likely to get on and swing a lynch in favour of saving Fifth. It's that simple. It's not about raw post numbers.

Why does that put us in the same activity profile? Only the last part has anything to do with activity, and it's more of a meta thing for me anyway.

Edit: You know what, this doesn't feel like V!Kas behavior. I've been consistently null for two cycles then for no particular reason I jump to vote worthy suspect. Mat noticed something c1 and I agree, something is off with you, Kas.

@Elandera for the edit vote. 

Edited by The Unknown Novel
0

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Hi everyone, this is a friendly reminder that I am the IM for this game, so if you have any questions/concerns/strong emotions related to the game, feel free to reach out to me!

 

2

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

So village on TGK and Joe unless they're for some reason both evil and really bizarre distancing was happening. Conq made a long post about valuing information other than votes and that is important but there's still a big difference between him saying he wants to vote for Fifth and actually voting for Fifth. Still, he could have voted for TGK to save Fifth so at least mild village. Kas was also in contention with Fifth but didn't vote for him, but I don't think was around to see Fifth put in jeopardy by Joe's vote.

I can see Fifth voting for TGK to protect Wizard and/or choosing TGK over TUN because the latter is evil. The odds of Fifth voting e!TGK to protect Wizard increase if TUN wasn't an option or he did see Kas's vote and knew that train was viable.

JNV was more around to vote than Steel or Luckspren, which makes me lean more village on JNV for not saving Fifth. I don't know if JNV saw Joe's vote though.

0

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 hour ago, The Unknown Novel said:

Why does that put us in the same activity profile? Only the last part has anything to do with activity, and it's more of a meta thing for me anyway.

Because I'd read the self-pres as being the same fundamental sort of activity - what activity there is is substantially defensive, which matters with Elims potentially being more defensive or more sensitive of votes on them, and unlikely in terms of activity to intervene in the Fifth lynch. You can dislike the use of the word 'activity' as a catch-all but I'm not going to change my view that it's too coarse-grained to file Steel and Luck with either of you.

1 hour ago, The Unknown Novel said:

I've been consistently null for two cycles then for no particular reason I jump to vote worthy suspect.

You have said previously that you only want to be rarely right rather than often wrong. I've said previously I'm fine with lynching nulls - my null categories are basically players who haven't been removed from the default suspicion state. I'd rather go for stronger suspicions where I can, but as I've pointed out, the voting looks good on TGK, which removes him from my suspicions tier, Fifth is dead, and Wiz is basically about to be dead right now so I don't particularly care about going onto my adjusted tiers. 

And this is without even talking about how I do agree that in a world with a reasonably active Elim team with a fair modicum of thread control, Fifth shouldn't be dead - Elims simply don't allow lynches through if they can practicably prevent it. It's the same reasoning that makes TGK and Joe look more Village because that is not a reasonable bus and I can't really see a reason for them to go with it.

Fundamentally, I'm not changing how you approach this game, because I get that you simply dislike epistemic risk. Kindly extend me the same courtesy.

2

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
36 minutes ago, Kasimir said:

Because I'd read the self-pres as being the same fundamental sort of activity - what activity there is is substantially defensive, which matters with Elims potentially being more defensive or more sensitive of votes on them, and unlikely in terms of activity to intervene in the Fifth lynch. You can dislike the use of the word 'activity' as a catch-all but I'm not going to change my view that it's too coarse-grained to file Steel and Luck with either of you.

I guess that makes sense. I don’t like to reasoning, and certainly don't agree with it, it's understandable. 

36 minutes ago, Kasimir said:

And this is without even talking about how I do agree that in a world with a reasonably active Elim team with a fair modicum of thread control, Fifth shouldn't be dead - Elims simply don't allow lynches through if they can practicably prevent it. It's the same reasoning that makes TGK and Joe look more Village because that is not a reasonable bus and I can't really see a reason for them to go with it.

Goodness we have a lot of inactives, but on a pure numbers game, Fifth was dead last cycle. It's possible,  if not likely, that the elims didn't look past that when deciding whether or not to push back hard or even hammer. Of course, that correlates with an inactive team as well, but everyone but you, Joe, and maybe Conq fit that bill. And me I guess.

I'm happier with these explanations, but I'll keep my vote for other reasons.

0

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
7 hours ago, The Wandering Wizard said:

JNV I am sorry about that. I was not thinking and should have asked you first about sharing what I did. 

Cnat change the past but keep it in mind for the future

So about Wizard the world where theyre evil doesnt make sense to me and heres why

So wizard and I started off with a paired set of Couriers Lenses we didnt chat much so I asked them to pass their lens to someone more active so itd go to good use they agreed then they got shattered I got told they got shattered cause 1 I got told my lens disconnected 2 our courier PM was said to be closed now there was a long moment there when I thought maybe they were evil trying to get out of passing the lens by shattering themself but then I thought about it and realised they could just pass the lens and shatter it next time and as evil it doesnt really make sense that theyd care enough cause Translators lens is kinda useless with the numver of PMs I made so shattering themslef is just a really weird move to make as evil and more likely to me is just theyre not evil and got shattered randomly in a tragic incident

3 hours ago, The_God_King said:

After reviewing cycle two I think my previous reads from C2 haven't changed much. Right now Wandering Wizard stands as the most likely elim. I don't feel like there's a good defense or another suspect right now. I have a feeling that SteelDancer or LuckSpren may be an elim which could be hurting the elim team. It is a bit hard to figure out if they are guilty without any interactions

So looking at your C2 reads list your read on Wizard is 'possibly cautious new player possibly evil' like do you have no reevaluation on The Unknown Novel for example who you had no real read on and theyve talked a bit more now no reevaluation on Joe or Kasimir or Devotary no reevaluation on anyone at all really

2 hours ago, Devotary of Spontaneity said:

JNV was more around to vote than Steel or Luckspren, which makes me lean more village on JNV for not saving Fifth. I don't know if JNV saw Joe's vote though.

I wasnt on at all in the last six or seven hours of the cycle so no I wouldnt have seen Joes vote 

Of my pool of evil the ranking from most to least possibly evil goes something like The Unknown Novel Conquestor Steeldancer (?) Wizard right now with the question mark by Steeldnacer cause they arent around and honestly The unknown Novel is always just a black hole in my brain 

Im really tired right now Im going to sleep if you have questions ask me Ill answer in the morning probably bye bye night night dont let the mistwraiths bite

0

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Guest
This topic is now closed to further replies.

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    No registered users viewing this page.