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Long Game 87: Choose Your Own Manywar


Steeldancer

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I prefer Sart over xino but I’m inclined to vote where the most votes are to have the best chance of survival. If someone else votes Sart then I will as well.

Edit: Forgot Stick was voting me. Don’t want to create a 2-2-2 tie though

Edited by Matrim's Dice
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I agree with Stick's logic. I've read Mat's original post several times now and, try as I may, I can't find anything wrong with it. 

If Mat is lying, will the real Followers of Edgli please stand up? It's such an easily disprovable claim that I don't think Mat making it all up is particularly plausible. 

The case against Mat is flimsy, the case against Xino is nonexistent, and I want my vote to matter instead of being a pointless vote on, say, Ashbringer, so Sart

Edited by Luckspren
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One easy reason that Mat could be lying is is his actual faction wants to kill the Followers. The thing I don’t think makes sense is that Mat is both an Infiltrator and not a Follower. But I think either of those things individually could be true, and largely wanted to point out that for anyone voting on Mat shouldn’t have retracted solely in response to his claim, which has essentially no evidence, aside from the lack of a counterclaim, to back it up.

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14 minutes ago, Araris Valerian said:

One easy reason that Mat could be lying is is his actual faction wants to kill the Followers. The thing I don’t think makes sense is that Mat is both an Infiltrator and not a Follower. But I think either of those things individually could be true, and largely wanted to point out that for anyone voting on Mat shouldn’t have retracted solely in response to his claim, which has essentially no evidence, aside from the lack of a counterclaim, to back it up.

So I get a real Follower to claim, and my faction kills them. It’s then just a 1-1 trade between me and them because they’re not going to have another claim and I’ll get exed for lying. That wouldn’t be a good idea for lying!me. I’d work in PMs, not the thread.

Besides, fake claiming an entire faction D1 would basically guarantee that I’d reveal the lie myself eventually. Pulling off a big lie for an entire game is very, very hard.

The option that I’m telling the truth is the simplest and the correct one.

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2 minutes ago, Matrim's Dice said:

The option that I’m telling the truth is the simplest and the correct one.

I can think of two other options, which are you want to know who the real Edgelords are, based on any counterclaims. Or you want to catch evil Involved Traitors being eager to cooperate. But Oxford's Lazer says it's probably the simplest solution because why would an elim have to claim like that if they had the support of two docs keeping them alive. I think Matress Dice should live. 

Sart

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8 minutes ago, Matrim's Dice said:

So I get a real Follower to claim, and my faction kills them. It’s then just a 1-1 trade between me and them because they’re not going to have another claim and I’ll get exed for lying. That wouldn’t be a good idea for lying!me. I’d work in PMs, not the thread.

Besides, fake claiming an entire faction D1 would basically guarantee that I’d reveal the lie myself eventually. Pulling off a big lie for an entire game is very, very hard.

The option that I’m telling the truth is the simplest and the correct one.

Do you actually think the whole thread would jump on you for fake-claiming a faction? Even if someone from the actual faction counter-claimed?

Part of what makes me suspicious is how simple you claim your faction is. Sometimes the simplest claim is just the most convenient one.

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9 minutes ago, Archer said:

I can think of two other options, which are you want to know who the real Edgelords are, based on any counterclaims. Or you want to catch evil Involved Traitors being eager to cooperate. But Oxford's Lazer says it's probably the simplest solution because why would an elim have to claim like that if they had the support of two docs keeping them alive. I think Matress Dice should live. 

Sart

…what xD

6 minutes ago, Araris Valerian said:

Do you actually think the whole thread would jump on you for fake-claiming a faction? Even if someone from the actual faction counter-claimed?

Part of what makes me suspicious is how simple you claim your faction is. Sometimes the simplest claim is just the most convenient one.

I think that if someone counterclaimed me and then ended up dead, I’d be next. Doesn’t seem like a reach to me when I’m already under fire.

When have I ever fake claimed something simple :P Take my Vin claim, TUN’s QF, Ash’s honorblade LG— none of those were remotely simple. Cause it’s more fun to make it complicated :) 

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30 minutes ago, Archer said:

I can think of two other options, which are you want to know who the real Edgelords are, based on any counterclaims. Or you want to catch evil Involved Traitors being eager to cooperate. But Oxford's Lazer says it's probably the simplest solution because why would an elim have to claim like that if they had the support of two docs keeping them alive. I think Matress Dice should live. 

What in the name of corn on the cob...

I love humor, I hate typos, so I really don't know what to think of that. 

I understand being skeptical, Araris, but there are maybe three Involved Traitors in the game, so it's not likely probability-wise that Mat's one, and honestly he hasn't even done anything sus. Feel free to convince me otherwise (PM me or whatever), but I'm not really understanding your case. What would you expect him to be doing differently right now if his claims were true?

Mat: Sart, Araris, Xino

Xino: Kas, Bard, Mat

Sart: Stick, Luckspren, Archer

Araris: Fifth

Ash: Elan

 

Edited by Luckspren
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Hi.

I was supposed to sleep.

But I guess that's not happening. Gotta love insomnia-driven voting amirite.

I have thought about this. And the tunnel has slowly materialised, and dragged me into it.

Here's my problem with Mat's claim:

It's too simple.

I think we're missing the point. I think there's a world in which Mat is truthful about being Edgli and also an Elim. I think there's a world in which Mat is lying about being Edgli but Edgli has a vested interest in not clearing this up, whether because of an alliance or otherwise. (Mat's actual faction might not mind - many factions have a vested interest in concealing their members.) I think there's a world in which Mat is truthful about being Edgli and not an Elim.

I don't actually care which world we're in.

What I do care about is that wincon doesn't sound right.

This is a faction game. Wincons are constructed for faction interaction. Factions serve as a check on each other. They have motivations which drive them to ally with each other and to move against each other.

So. How does a faction who wants at least one Returned to stay alive win? They have a protect. What's to stop them from turtling this game out? If the wincon is purely Returned survival, don't you think that's odd? Each of the Scholars are special Returned. There are probably multiple Returned in this game. 

It's my same issue with Devo's MR56 wincon: it's bloody simple. There's little incentive to interact. The wincon, on the face of it, requires one Returned to stay alive by endgame. That's it. One Returned. No mention of Mat or his teammate. Look at the primary factions. The other survival wincon we know of involves the Royals and is a lot more involved than 'just keep one Royal alive' by endgame. It also has a natural opposition: the Royalists want living Royals, the Elims and the Revolutionaries want dead Royals. 

Is this a wincon that fits into the landscape of the game as we know it?

Maybe. I'll be fair - it's D1 and we know very little. But I point out that all of the worlds above don't tell us anything at all about if Mat is being truthful about his wincon, and I point out that if I were in his shoes and had a wincon that could potentially be taken the wrong way by other players, I too, would conceal it under a beguilingly simple lie.

This doesn't make sense, and I don't like this, and I'm a hair away from just saying "screw it" and voting Mat.

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1 hour ago, Luckspren said:

The case against Mat is flimsy, the case against Xino is nonexistent, and I want my vote to matter instead of being a pointless vote on, say, Ashbringer, so Sart

Hey! Votes on me can have a point. I might notice them and actually post something mid-turn.

(Sorry about not posting, by the way. Yesterday I had somewhat spotty internet and was otherwise focused on other things.)

Not an immediate fan of Mat’s claim, but it makes some sense? I was more a little focused on his joking reading before alignments were chosen - but after Infiltrators were. But I didn’t look at that either much. I’ll do that later.

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@Kasimir- you're not wrong. There isn't really a whole lot of incentive to interact, beyond finding a Returned and then chilling. But as you can see I've found a way anyway :P As can anyone else I've PMd. I'm not about to chill in the background just because I can. And if you have an issue with the wincon seeming too simple, ask the game designer, I guess? :P. But actually don't, because the semi-involved neutral is like my favorite roles to play in games like this. More so than straight evil. So you can bet that I'll stay involved, keep PMing, probably try to kill infiltrators, and work for my wincon. I like my wincon. It lets me chill. You should be able to appreciate that :P (This isn't me accusing you, just trying to show that it doesn't need to be complicated.)

Plus, if the Cult of Color wincon is indeed the opposite of mine like we've theorized, that makes more sense, doesn't it? It certainly doesn't have to be though. But the reasoning of 'it's too simple' is annoying because there's nothing really I can say other than '...no?' and you said it yourself, you don't have the whole picture. It's hard to claim a secret role in general because either people say it's too complicated, or they say it's too simple.

All that is probably too much of an explanation for someone who isn't voting me, but that's fine with me. I like my faction and the simplicity of the wincon. It'll allow me to play all sides if I choose, just chill in the background if I choose. Do whatever. I'm not a very productive kill right now. If, like, I suddenly side with the infiltrators down the road then I get why you would want to kill me, but right now? Nah.

Plus, if you think I'm smart enough in my Warbreaker to knowledge to create a simple and thematically accurate wincon, you'd be dead wrong :P 

Sart.

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Mat (1): Araris
Xino (3): Kas, Bard, Mat
Araris (1): Fifth
Ash (1): Elan
Sart (4): Stick, Luckspren, Archer, Xino

Sart for the purposes of self-preservation.

15 minutes ago, Kasimir said:

Each of the Scholars are special Returned. There are probably multiple Returned in this game. 

...That's right, the Scholars are Returned. 

Also wait a minute, wasn't it the Cult of Colors that was obsessed with Returned in Warbreaker?

 

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So I'm going to push rollover back by one hour for purely selfish reasons, there's this lovely beach I'm now at and I want to spend some time on it before coming inside and doing rollover. 

So it'll be in about 3 hours at 10 PM EDT. 

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1 hour ago, xinoehp512 said:

Also wait a minute, wasn't it the Cult of Colors that was obsessed with Returned in Warbreaker?

I don't remember Warbreaker well enough, but I did theorize that the CoC's wincon was to kill all of the Returned. That'd solve Kas' issue with my faction seemingly having no opposition, and probably is thematically accurate. And probably paints a target on my back :P.

Edit: Can't find Cult of Colors anywhere on the Coppermind, but maybe I'm just bad at searching lol

Edited by Matrim's Dice
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20 minutes ago, Matrim's Dice said:

All that is probably too much of an explanation for someone who isn't voting me, but that's fine with me. I like my faction and the simplicity of the wincon. It'll allow me to play all sides if I choose, just chill in the background if I choose. Do whatever. I'm not a very productive kill right now. If, like, I suddenly side with the infiltrators down the road then I get why you would want to kill me, but right now? Nah.

The only thing that is staying my hand right now is the fact that I don't want to vote a neutral just for lying about their wincon. I'm aware of what certain bros of mine would say but you're playing me right here and right now, and not him.

I frankly don't buy this, and for the amount that Steel has harped about his game design and the interactions between seven factions, and how he wants the full fifteen to have all the factions in this game, I especially don't buy that your wincon is what you say it is.

If the Cult has the wincon we've theorised, it would potentially shift my view, but even then, not necessarily so. There's very little at stake with a simple "keep one Returned alive" wincon.

But I don't want to vote a neutral for lying. Plain and simple, it's a bad precedent for the community. That's what pulled me off Devo in MR56 even though it was blatantly obvious that killing at least one Village Epic and at least one Evil Epic was so bloody simple in a game chock-full of Epics that shooting blind would've finished that wincon in a number of cycles. It wasn't a viable wincon, and I don't really think yours is, either. But a paranoia lynch is not where I want to go. I'll take the L if I have to, and if it kills my faction, then I'm sorry to them, though I suppose they can make their own decisions. So be it. If your actual wincon is hostile, and we get screwed over, then that's just how it's going to be. I'm not going to waste my energy chasing down this lynch further.

Xino

Elan

Edited to add: Ok. One last venture and I'm done. Suppose the Cult has to kill all the Returned. Do they get a special kill to do this? Because if they have to kill all the Returned, what's stopping you and your secret buddy from just camping out and repeatedly protecting that one Returned? Returned already have an extra life due to being of the Fifth Heightening. 

Does the Cult have a special, unblockable kill? If so, then pardon my Alethi, but that's a bloody pointless protect you have there, then!

Does the Cult need to ally with the Elims? That's odd, isn't it? That the Cult absolutely has to ally with the Elims to have a prayer of victory? What if the Elims say no? Is the Cult just screwed then? How does railroading the Cult into allying with the Elims make sense in this game landscape?

I submit that postulating the Cult wants to kill all Returned doesn't actually make it very much better. I don't think that's what's going on here, period.

Edited to add 2: Let's not forget the Elims already have a natural ally in the Revolutionaries. We're looking at two factions who are immediate, ready allies to the Elims. That's just kayana.

Edited by Kasimir
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Arthas was doomed. By forcing a vote on Samuel, he had directed the mob's attention towards himself. Even if he moved his vote in self-preservation, it was unlikely to save his skin. There was only one thing to do. It was time to be the worst spy in the history of spies.

------

Out of character, but ahhhhh!! I wanted to spark discussion, but not at the cost of my own life. Learning the theoretical win condition of the Followers of Edgli is great, but it doesn't remove the possibility of Matrim also being an Infiltrator. That being said, I recognize that my vote on him was a stretch. In my defense, it was a day one vote. I wanted to start discussion, and that post definitely did. More importantly, I have a reason why I shouldn't be killed. I'm a Spy. That means I can detect factions, and that presumably means I can detect Infiltrators. (I should really ask the GMs about that) I was going to keep that a secret, but there's no reason to if I'm going to die before I can use it. It's a really bad idea to kill me Day 1. I know this paints a target on my back, but please don't kill me. I can verify my role if I survive to the night.

I'll put on Elandera, because the Contribution Crusade is really my only hope at this point.

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Hm. I'm not entirely sure what to think of that claim. On the one hand, it would be useful, but basically only to Sart's faction. And this does not exclude Sart from being an Infiltrator. 

1 minute ago, The Unknown Novel said:

I personally find Mat’s claim questionable, but I'm inclined to believe him, so in the interest of saving Sart, Elan.

How does Mat's claim have any bearing on saving Sart?

Can we please stop with the public roleclaiming? That's a lot of information to be tossing about and handing over to enemy factions.

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11 minutes ago, Elandera said:

Hm. I'm not entirely sure what to think of that claim. On the one hand, it would be useful, but basically only to Sart's faction. And this does not exclude Sart from being an Infiltrator. 

How does Mat's claim have any bearing on saving Sart?

Can we please stop with the public roleclaiming? That's a lot of information to be tossing about and handing over to enemy factions.

Oh great, I can't even justify my vote as a contribution crusade at this point. And I actually can't confirm my role, because I've been informed that Spying is a Night action. Gah... This late in the cycle, coming up with another candidate and getting enough votes on that train seems frankly ludicrous. Guess I'll see you guys in the dead doc.

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I thought spending time with family would mean I’d come back to results but I guess the Exe is still going. I’m gonna take the coward’s route out and say that I am indifferent in this particular instance—I have both Mat and Elan on elim radar, would prefer to give Sart a cycle to verify his claims, and have committed to stabbing Araris and he himself would be mad at me if I pulled out the knife even though he probably wants Mat dead. I’ll stick where I am. 

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Today has been a day. I'll be around more next round, I apologize. 

Looks like the elims were okay with Sart dying because they allowed them to be in the lead at the old rollover time without much pushback. So, Elan

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