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Contest of Champions/SA5 Predictions


Tower

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8 hours ago, agrabes said:

Like your ideas, even if I don't think they're likely it would be an interesting story!  Here are my predictions:

 

1) Dalinar chooses to be his own champion, as expected.  A big part of the drama for the first 2/3 of the book is in who will become Odium's champion.

2) Adolin/Shallan plotline is largely focused on Ba-Ado-Mishram, but also in the interaction with the Ghostbloods.  Their plotline will be the one that looks outward into the Cosmere.  They  will arrive only just in time for the Contest of Champions.  Their plot will keep them (or return them?) to the Cognitive Realm.

3) Kaladin and Szeth go to Shinovar and we will get some kind of revelation as to what the Shin have been up to.  Szeth makes progress and swears the 5th Ideal.

4) Kaladin attempts to "heal" Ishar of his madness.  This fails - teaching Kaladin that not every problem can be solved and that in some cases it's better not to try because he can't literally do everything and save everyone all the time.  Ishar continues his insanity but does not pose a threat to the immediate issue - the contest of champions - so Kaladin and Szeth leave.  Kaladin starts to better learn what it means to be a leader, especially a higher level leader (he has to trust his subordinates to make good decisions without his direct guidance and generally shouldn't enter the battle directly himself) which allows him to swear his 5th Ideal, which gains him additonal powers to "buff" allies in some way.

5) Nale is selected as Odium's champion.  He defeats and kills Dalinar in a straight up battle, leading to Dalinar becoming a fused.  Nale decides independently from Odium that he is now obligated to purge Roshar of humans since he sided with the Singers and he begins a violent crusade which doesn't violate Odium's deal since Nale is acting on his own.  This happens at about the 2/3 point in the book.

5.5) One of Nale's first acts is to punish Adolin for his murder of Sadeas.  He sees Dalinar/Jasnah's lack of action on that crime as particularly loathsome, a perversion of justice to let his son go without punishment.  He tries to kill Adolin, but Adolin escapes into the cognitive realm and becomes a worldhopper, knowing Nale can't follow.

6) Since this is Szeth's book - he is the one who faces down with Nale in a battle of 5th Ideal Skybreakers to determine what is truly required by the law.  Kaladin helps by buffing Szeth.

7) Simultaneous with the Nale/Szeth battle, Moash arrives and has a final showdown with Kaladin.  Kaladin has to fight at a disadvantage because he's committed a lot of his power to help Szeth.

8) Szeth defeats Nale.  As Nale is dying, he tells Szeth that this is what he brought him back to life to do - to stop him from becoming too hard hearted and dogmatic.  Nale dies for real (somehow).

9) Kaladin defeats Moash despite being without a lot of his powers.  He spares Moash, who escapes and is set up as one of the big bads for the back 5 of Stormlight.

 

I'll be surprised if any of this actually happens, but figured I'd throw my thoughts out there.

I really like a lot of this, and I think that Nale being Odium's champion, and then pursuing a sort of crusade afterward independent of him would fit in well with some of the other stuff discussed in this thread. I personally think that Moash will fall into the background after Stormlight 5 (If he doesn't die) But I suppose he would make a very interesting main antagonist. I also think that Ba-Ado-Mishram will have a much larger impact on the next book, as well as Navani recently bonding to the Sibling.

I don't know what to think about the possibility of Adolin being a worldhopper, but he just seems very different than the actual worldhoppers we know, so I would say it's unlikely. He is still part of the royalty in Alethkar, even if he declined becoming king, and I think that he wouldn't feel like he could just leave. Adolin also has some tension going on with Dalinar that needs to get resolved at some point. Attempts to revive Maya will also continue. This will likely work together with Shallan's goals and searching for Ba-Ado-Mishram, as well as getting vengeance on the Ghoshtbloods.

As for a battle between Nale and Szeth, I think that it could totally happen much in the way you describe, but the fact is, Nale is literally a herald who has been fighting for thousands of years. He has way more experience than Szeth. We already saw in their previous confrontation that Nale is by far the superior to Szeth, so unless the fifth ideal give him a huge skill boost, I don't see a way for Szeth to win unless something else changes. (That is with assuming that Szeth does swear fifth ideal, and also doesn't just pop Nale into nothingness with Nightblood)

I think that Odium's new plans, whatever they might be, will also be more important, with him trying to spread his influence throughout the Cosmere. Additionally, there are still some death rattles that need to be accounted for, along with some unmade that we know virtually nothing about. El will probably be a more important villain as well. Maybe he will direct Odium's plots on Roshar while he is occupied with the larger scale plans.

Shallan has to clear out the rest of the details regarding her past and needs to deal with Radiant in some way. We still are definitely missing things that happened in her childhood. The Ghostblood's goals will likely become clearer as well.

The honorblades will likely also play a more major role, as we know they were all in Shinovar at some point. With the expedition there and Ishar wielding the bondsmith honorblade, I think it is likely for the other ones to play a role as well. We don't know where some of the heralds are still, and I think it's likely that at least one or two more of them show up.

I know that I missed some stuff, like what Kaladin is going to do, and what the impact of anti-stormlight and anti-voidlight will be, but those are my general thoughts, though I'm sure Brandon Sanderson will surprise us all.

Edited by That1Cellist
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I don't think it would break the agreement if the champions refused or were unable to kill each other. Like @Frustrationsaid earlier: the contest would just not be finished until one does die.

Also, sending a child who is unable to kill Dalinar (and thereby win the contest) - and then relying entirely on Dalinar keeping to his word of "a single innocent death is one too many" even when keeping to this means essentially surrendering - doesn't really sound like a good enough plan. Taravangian believes the end always justifies the means - I doubt he'll not at least think there's a possibility that Dalinar would change his mind under the circumstances (even if Daliniar wouldn't).

Taravangian strikes me as the person who makes sure a challenge always falls in his favour, no matter the outcome. He probably knows Daliniar will be his own champion. So, Taravangian has a few options I can think of:

1: Win the contest

Which would require an unbeatable champion, or at least unbeatable for Dalinar. Any of the Heralds, Unmade, and a lot of the Fused could beat Daliniar in a straight-up duel to the death, however, Dalinar's bondsmith abilities make this outcome less certain. Therefore, I doubt Taravangian would risk it unless his champion is someone who could counter these abilities (Ishar, maybe Ba-Ado-Mishram).

The second option is to make sure the fight is not a standard duel (which I think is much more likely). I suspect Adolin's duel will be foreshadowing for this, somehow, though likely not in a 'you didn't specify the number of opponents'-way. Likely, the battle will rely on something outside of brute physical or magical strength; something Dalinar didn't plan for.

The third option, which can easily be combined with one of the other two, would be to choose a champion Dalinar doesn't expect and which throws him off his game. While this is likely some kind of betrayal (though could also be a complete stranger that Dalinar doesn't know what to expect from, e.g. El), I doubt it would be a child (for the reasons I mentioned earlier). The most impactful champions for this would be: Adolin, Renarin, Jasnah, Nivani, and Kaladin. However, the problem with this is that the champion needs to be willing, and I have a hard time seeing any of these characters willingly siding with Odium at this point. I don't know if tricking one of them into it would uphold the "willing" part.

2: Have Dalinar break the agreement

This is the only option if Odium wants to be free (unless Dalinar is able to free him after becoming a Fused ...) and would most likely require Dalinar to break this part on the agreement:

Quote

On the tenth day of the month Palah, tenth hour. We each send a willing champion, allowed to meet at the top of Urithiru, otherwise unharmed by either side’s forces.

Rhythm of War, Brandon Sanderson

There are several ways for Dalinar to break it, and Taravangian only needs to trick him into doing one of them:

- Dalinar (or less likely: Dalinar's willing champion) is not at the agreed place at the agreed time. Odium cannot directly prevent them from reaching the destination per the agreement, but the Fused and their allies can.

- Dalinar, or someone under his command, accidentally harms Odium's champion. If Dalinar doesn't know who they are beforehand, this could be easy to arrange.

- Dalinar, or someone under his command, deliberately hurt the champion, because not doing so would lead to some other horrible outcome, e.g. the death of all their loved ones. Don't tell me there's not a single soldier under Dalinar's command who wouldn't "stab first and consider the consequences later" in such a situation.

TL;DR: I think TOdium has a lot of better options to get what he wants than relying on Dalinar refusing to kill the other champion

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I've recently been thinking about the Stormfaker and any implications that may follow if he is indeed the real Stormfather... 

Imagine if the real Stormfather has been WORKING FOR ODIUM this whole time... I mean the guy seems pretty broken (understandably after seeing all his children die during the recreance) and cagey... it's not too much of a stretch for him to want to see the end of humanity on Roshar (and potentially his own life) after thousands of years of seeing humanity at it's worst. Him bonding Dalinar makes sense as well if you look at it through the lens of the Stormfather knowing Dalinar was being groomed as Odiums champion... why not supersize your evil champion with the power of a Bondsmith (unchained)...

If the Stormfather is the Stormfaker it makes sense that he has evil intentions which we're yet to understand... he wanted Gavilar to bring on the voidbringers and free Odium as he hates humanity... 

So... if StormDaddy is working for Odium... could he BE ODIUIMS CHAMPION in SA5!? That would be an interesting twist... thoughts?

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On 22/06/2022 at 3:14 PM, Tower said:

3. Dalinar will beat, but refuse to kill, Adolin and ultimately break the terms of the contest of champions and end up releasing Odium from the Rosharan system.

 

Firstly, i wonder whether Dalinar even could beat Adolin without his Bondsmith abilities.

Second, i think Adolin is emotionally/mentally strong enough to break free of this kind of manipulation, at least once he realises he's have to fight his father.

 

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What weapon is Dalinar going to  use for this contest. Odium says it will be so much more than a sword fight. But if it is a duel to the death, Dalinar will need blade and plate. An honor blade would be best. Living plate would be better than dead plate. So... Does he borrow an honor blade and Kaladin's plate? Does he use sword Nimi? Thoughts?

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On 7/5/2022 at 5:52 AM, RAFOmancer said:

In the middle of the night while i was struggling to sleep, a thought hit me: If Dalinar said he'll be his own champion, what's to stop odium from doing the same?

Well, he could, but I don't think it'd be to his advantage. I mean, he's an old man.

When you realized, did you sit up straight and exclaim "Merciful Domi!"?

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On 7/12/2022 at 7:35 PM, Shallan Stormblessed said:

Well, he could, but I don't think it'd be to his advantage. I mean, he's an old man.

When you realized, did you sit up straight and exclaim "Merciful Domi!"?

No.But I felt like the Gates of the Cosmere have opened up before my unworthy eyes.....and woke my sister up.( I think you can imagine she wasn't happy about it ... at all:ph34r:.)

Edited by RAFOmancer
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On 7/7/2022 at 11:38 PM, Arsteel said:

Firstly, i wonder whether Dalinar even could beat Adolin without his Bondsmith abilities.

Second, i think Adolin is emotionally/mentally strong enough to break free of this kind of manipulation, at least once he realises he's have to fight his father.

 

I disagree with this from what we have seen of Adolin he is a very caring emotional person the type T-Odium would have to trouble manipulating

On 7/7/2022 at 11:45 PM, Arsteel said:

Also... why has everybody forgotten about El? Isn't he Odium's champion?

I think Moash has already been beaten to soundly to be Odium's champion IMO.

I agree with the Moash part but I wouldn't rely on El too much people seem to think he is going to be more important than he really is. I think T-Odiums champion is going to be someone who Dalinar will be unable to fight I think Adolin is a good example and the most likely.

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I can see Adolin being tempted to join Odium, due to his anger at his father, but he seems to have too many ties to just abandon them.  Shallan, Maya, Kaladin, Renarin, Navani and Jasnah. Moash was in bridge four, but he was never really close with any of them except Kaladin, so the situation is different.  Severing one tie out of anger or revenge is one thing. Severing half a dozen or more is a different story.

I think it's very likely that releasing Ba-Ado-Mishram will have some effect on restoring dead-eye spren. Dead eyes are very similar to how the singers were parshmen, and the ever storm restored them. If the ever storm is equal to the high storms, it stands to reason that it's equal to the storm father. And I believe it's confirmed that the unmade are in the same league as the storm father. Not as powerful, but not completely outclassed. So it seems reasonable to conclude that releasing her could restore the deadeye spren.

I'm still not convinced that Kaladin will not be Dalinar's champion.  The definitive statement by Dalinar at the end of RoW seems like a misdirect to me.  Although I'd prefer it if the champion were neither of them. Adolin would a good champion for Honor, I think. Although it seems unlikely that they'd make it back to the tower in time.

Dalinar's rivalry with Taravangian seems like something that should play out outside of the contest of champions, in my opinion.  Unless there's some way for Dalinar to face Taravangian himself, which seems highly unlikely.  So I don't think Dalinar should act as his own champion.

I firmly believe that Adolin needs to be a main cast character.  He's pretty much the only non radiant main character (aside from villains) which makes him an important representative. One of my few issues with the Harry Potter series is that there are hardly any muggle characters that play any kind of major role (aside from the Dursleys). The only reason good enough, in my opinion, for him to become a radiant is if it's the only way to heal Maya.

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12 hours ago, LightweaverWannabe said:

I disagree with this from what we have seen of Adolin he is a very caring emotional person the type T-Odium would have to trouble manipulating.

I don't see why you disagree, as this is exactly what I meant.

I think you could well be right about the champion and that Taravodium is more likely to choose someone Dalinar knows and who will have an additional effect on him.

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8 hours ago, Arsteel said:

I don't see why you disagree, as this is exactly what I meant.

I think you could well be right about the champion and that Taravodium is more likely to choose someone Dalinar knows and who will have an additional effect on him.

I was saying that he would have a very hard time breaking free once he was under I think that if he was being empowered by T-Odium it would be near impossible for him I'm foreseeing a really sad Moash like arc for Adolin but one with hopefully some redemption.

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On 7/24/2022 at 0:30 PM, LightweaverWannabe said:

I disagree with this from what we have seen of Adolin he is a very caring emotional person the type T-Odium would have to trouble manipulating

I also think Adolin is a good person. Adolin killing Sadaes was self-defense. The Kholin's had tried everything they could to take down Sadaes legally, but nothing worked. Sadaes had made promises to kill the Kholins, and in this case, your only option is to go outside the law.

There really was nothing else Adolin could do. Sadeas's death-count was already so high, and it isnt moral to expect Adolin to just wait for Sadaes to eventually pull off an assassination. 

Hypothetical Situation: 
I compare it to being in a serial killer situation. Imagine a serial killer has killed many people you loved, and now the serial killer has set their eyes on you. You know who the killer is, but you cant get anyone to stop them because they are so powerful and influential politically. The serial killer is well-connected, above the law, and the police will not help you if you seek help. You have managed to avoid getting killed so far, but eventually you will die. The serial killer has just tried to kill your father and girlfriend, but luckily the attempt was thwarted. Although, many of your friends have died to this serial killer already. There are literally dozens of widowed wives and destroyed families at this point. You have tried calling for help but no one can help you. The law cannot prosecute this person. The serial killer will just keep coming. 

Now, one day, the serial killer is gloating to you about their plans to murder you and your family. The serial killer is not currently holding a weapon or threatening your life at that exact moment, but they are talking about how they will kill you and your family soon. This is credible, and you are not their first victim. You notice that the serial killer has let their guard down, so you attack them while they are off guard and you manage to kill them first.

This would be, to me, self defense. This would be moral. This would not be giving in to emotion. This would be stopping a credible threat to your life. There is no moral law that you can only kill an active serial killer when they are already holding the knife to your throat. This to me would be "life  before death". You are chosing the lives of all those the serial killer has threated. You have exhausted every other option, so you have chosen "life" for you and those who are threated. You have protected those who cannot protect themselves. 

Edited by teknopathetic
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46 minutes ago, teknopathetic said:

I also think Adolin is a good person. Adolin killing Sadaes was self-defense. The Kholin's had tried everything they could to take down Sadaes legally, but nothing worked. Sadaes had made promises to kill the Kholins, and in this case, your only option is to go outside the law.

There really was nothing else Adolin could do. Sadeas's death-count was already so high, and it isnt moral to expect Adolin to just wait for Sadaes to eventually pull off an assassination. 

Hypothetical Situation: 
I compare it to being in a serial killer situation. Imagine a serial killer has killed many people you loved, and now the serial killer has set their eyes on you. You know who the killer is, but you cant get anyone to stop them because they are so powerful and influential politically. The serial killer is well-connected, above the law, and the police will not help you if you seek help. You have managed to avoid getting killed so far, but eventually you will die. The serial killer has just tried to kill your father and girlfriend, but luckily the attempt was thwarted. Although, many of your friends have died to this serial killer already. There are literally dozens of widowed wives and destroyed families at this point. You have tried calling for help but no one can help you. The law cannot prosecute this person. The serial killer will just keep coming. 

Now, one day, the serial killer is gloating to you about their plans to murder you and your family. The serial killer is not currently holding a weapon or threatening your life at that exact moment, but they are talking about how they will kill you and your family soon. This is credible, and you are not their first victim. You notice that the serial killer has let their guard down, so you attack them while they are off guard and you manage to kill them first.

This would be, to me, self defense. This would be moral. This would not be giving in to emotion. This would be stopping a credible threat to your life. There is no moral law that you can only kill an active serial killer when they are already holding the knife to your throat. This to me would be "life  before death". You are chosing the lives of all those the serial killer has threated. You have exhausted every other option, so you have chosen "life" for you and those who are threated. You have protected those who cannot protect themselves. 

That could have been the case but from the way it is written it seems that Adolin did id because he got mad at Sadeas and let this emotion control him.

If he was doing it as a calculated decision to protect his family I would have agreed with it (the same way Jasnah bought assassions to defend herr family) but because he did it out of anger I don`t think it was moral and I was very surprised when he was not punished for it - I ecpeted him to at least get disinherited when it was dicovered.

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1 hour ago, offer said:

That could have been the case but from the way it is written it seems that Adolin did id because he got mad at Sadeas and let this emotion control him.

If he was doing it as a calculated decision to protect his family I would have agreed with it (the same way Jasnah bought assassions to defend herr family) but because he did it out of anger I don`t think it was moral and I was very surprised when he was not punished for it - I ecpeted him to at least get disinherited when it was dicovered.

I guess that is the debate. Is it anger itself, or the anger one feels when they are being threatened and unable to use the law to protect yourself. Under the law, Sadaes has a year until the trial and a year to keep killing Adolin and his loved ones. That would be a justifiable rage. Shallan says "good for you" at what Adolin did, so I lean towards his action being moral to more than one radiant group. Shallan has also killed an abusive person, so their moral alignment matches well. 

Moral to Me:
Shallan - Kills someone who is currently killing her family. Shallan has few if any other options but fatal violence. Kills to save 
Adolin - Kills someone who has killed his friends and promises to kill his family. Adolin has few if any other options but fatal violence. Kills to save.

Grey Morals
Jasnah - Kills someone who attemots to kill her and her ward. Has many options and is in no real danger. 

Does Jasnah have a duty to protect those who want to rape her? Shallan would likely be moral in killing them because Shallan is weaker than the men. Is an attempt on your life less immoral if you happen to be able to defend yourself? It is all super grey here. People are going to lean 1 of two ways. Jasnah sees the rapists as an enemy army against poor women, and in war killing your enemy would be seen as moral. If Dalinar went and stood in a place where he knew Listener Soldiers might attack him, would he be immoral for Dalinar to kill those who attacked him? Shallan sees the rapists as citizens, and therefor killing would be immoral. But that is more of a choice on how you view what has been happening to women, Its all - complicated. Even more so by class and ... and ... 

 

Edited by teknopathetic
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I don't think El will be the Champion,because he kind-of likes humans and admires them.Plus,he doesn't  seem like the fighter type,he's more assassin-ish....:ph34r:

 

 

Edit: also, I really like him ^_^

Edited by RAFOmancer
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