Tower

Contest of Champions/SA5 Predictions

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Unless Adolin goes with her... he's removed himself from the Alethi succession, basically, and depending on what happens in book 5 he might have reason to leave.

5 minutes ago, Tower said:

We also know that certain worldhopper (who isn’t a Thaidakar fan) is going off world after SA5, and that worldhopper has a history with Shallan and a close relationship her mentor (who is also at war with the Ghostbloods)

If you're talking about Wit, I agree we've seen him off Roshar in chronologically later stories, but I doubt he's leaving permanently (won't be in arc 2).

I would think that (Mistborn)

Spoiler

Much of this might be resolved in Mistborn Era 3 since Kelsier (Thaidakar) is supposed to be a major part of that. Shallan might show up there, but we won't necessarily see her leave Roshar, 

In the same way we don't see Vivenna and Vasher leave Nalthis, but we do see them on Roshar.

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21 minutes ago, cometaryorbit said:

Unless Adolin goes with her... he's removed himself from the Alethi succession, basically, and depending on what happens in book 5 he might have reason to leave.

If you're talking about Wit, I agree we've seen him off Roshar in chronologically later stories, but I doubt he's leaving permanently (won't be in arc 2).

I would think that (Mistborn)

  Hide contents

Much of this might be resolved in Mistborn Era 3 since Kelsier (Thaidakar) is supposed to be a major part of that. Shallan might show up there, but we won't necessarily see her leave Roshar, 

In the same way we don't see Vivenna and Vasher leave Nalthis, but we do see them on Roshar.

I doubt Adolin could, he’s still the highprince of the Kholins and he just doesn’t come across as being the type of person that would leave the True Desolation entirely.

 I’m not saying Wit is leaving permanently, or Shallan for that matter, but he is in Mistborn Era 2 which is *conveniently* right in between SA5 and 6. Also, Era 3 is going to be written between SA5 and 6, so any potential worldhopping would still have to happen in 5.

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On 6/22/2022 at 1:05 PM, Tower said:

My theory is that Dalinar will beat, but ultimately refuse to kill Adolin. Taravangian, being clever enough to exploit the minutia of that phrase, would say Dalinar is not fulfilling the terms. My assumption is that the possibilities Taravangian saw that Rayse didn't was crafting a way to get Dalinar to break the terms of the agreement.

Taravangian doesn't even have to try to get Dalinar to break the terms. It's 'a contest of champions to the death', which would mean that if no one kills anyone, no one wins. The terms of the contract are 'If I [Dalinar] win that contest, you [Odium] will remain bound to the system', and 'If I [Odium] win... I remain bound to this system.'

So if no one wins, if neither champion dies, is Odium no longer bound to the Rosharan system?

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3 hours ago, Luckspren said:

Taravangian doesn't even have to try to get Dalinar to break the terms. It's 'a contest of champions to the death', which would mean that if no one kills anyone, no one wins. The terms of the contract are 'If I [Dalinar] win that contest, you [Odium] will remain bound to the system', and 'If I [Odium] win... I remain bound to this system.'

So if no one wins, if neither champion dies, is Odium no longer bound to the Rosharan system?

That only comes into play at the end of the contest, and in order for the contest to end one of the champions has to die.

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15 minutes ago, Frustration said:

in order for the contest to end one of the champions has to die.

Probably... What would happen to the contest if neither party was able to kill the other? 

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Just now, Luckspren said:

Probably... What would happen to the contest if neither party was able to kill the other? 

I'd say that's impossible since there is no form of perfect immortaility in the cosmere.

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1 minute ago, Frustration said:

that's impossible since there is no form of perfect immortaility in the cosmere.

Take the most improbable theory for Odium's champion I've heard- Gavinor. He has no ability to kill Dalinar, and I don't think Dalinar would be (mentally) able to kill him. Any idea what would happen?

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Just now, Luckspren said:

Take the most improbable theory for Odium's champion I've heard- Gavinor. He has no ability to kill Dalinar, and I don't think Dalinar would be (mentally) able to kill him. Any idea what would happen?

The contest continues until one of them dies.

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Just now, Frustration said:

The contest continues until one of them dies.

That would make sense with how the contract is worded. Does that allow a situation where the time between Stormlight 5 and Stormlight 6 is the time until one of them happens to die? (Assuming that the official contest would continue into normal life, with no conclusion) Neither side would be able to harm the other's champion during that time without breaking the contract, which would allow the contest to extend for quite some time...

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Just now, Luckspren said:

That would make sense with how the contract is worded. Does that allow a situation where the time between Stormlight 5 and Stormlight 6 is the time until one of them happens to die? (Assuming that the official contest would continue into normal life, with no conclusion) Neither side would be able to harm the other's champion during that time without breaking the contract, which would allow the contest to extend for quite some time...

While theoretically possible it won't happen.

Book 5 is the end of the first arc Brandon isn't going to end it on a cliffhanger.

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I agree, Brandon isn't evil. 

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Posted (edited)

13 hours ago, Luckspren said:

Take the most improbable theory for Odium's champion I've heard- Gavinor. He has no ability to kill Dalinar, and I don't think Dalinar would be (mentally) able to kill him. Any idea what would happen?

Here is how I think the contest will play out:

Dalinar will beat Odium’s champion, as in he will incapacitate them to the point where they could not possibly kill him. Dalinar will then refuse to kill the champion saying that it is clear that he won so killing isn’t necessary. Odium will say that Dalinar must kill the champion in order to win the contest and if he refuses he is breaking the terms that were set. Dalinar accepts that he is breaking the terms fulfilling the “choice of honor is life” death rattle.

I do not like the Gavinor champion theory, I would rather see him in the back 5 as a main. But this theory kind of informed the one I posted: who could be a champion that Dalinar would refuse to kill? Adolin stuck out because there are little hints that support it, along with how it would effect other characters. Adolin being the champion for Odium has the greatest narrative impact in my opinion.

 

Edited by Tower
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On 22.6.2022 at 10:04 PM, cometaryorbit said:

 

"Choice of honor is life" one to me sounds more like one of the Honor associated characters' decision to spare or save someone's life having really disastrous consequences down the road. (And the actual choice might have already happened - we've seen several possibilities- just not the consequences yet.)

I always thought this was fulfilled when Szeth didn't kill Taravangian in his last chapter in The Way of Kings. I'm pretty sure it explicitly says something like "honor prevailed, for the moment." 

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On 24.6.2022 at 1:02 PM, Tower said:

Here is how I think the contest will play out:

Dalinar will beat Odium’s champion, as in he will incapacitate them to the point where they could not possibly kill him. Dalinar will then refuse to kill the champion saying that it is clear that he won so killing isn’t necessary. Odium will say that Dalinar must kill the champion in order to win the contest and if he refuses he is breaking the terms that were set. Dalinar accepts that he is breaking the terms fulfilling the “choice of honor is life” death rattle.

I do not like the Gavinor champion theory, I would rather see him in the back 5 as a main. But this theory kind of informed the one I posted: who could be a champion that Dalinar would refuse to kill? Adolin stuck out because there are little hints that support it, along with how it would effect other characters. Adolin being the champion for Odium has the greatest narrative impact in my opinion.

 

It would have a great impact, but make very little sense narratively. The little hints you talk about are all conflicts between Adolin and Dalinar where Adolin is completely correct and Dalinar is a bit of a douche. For example when Dalinar constantly judges his clothing for no reason at all. As if wearing a slightly ornamented uniform is the embodiment of evil. Or when he compares the killing of Sadeas to his own war crimes in one of the RoW chapters.. I think those "hints" are only meant to show how Dalinar's sense of Honor is an extreme in its own way. He even takes the "the next step is the most important one" thing too far, as he tends to just dismiss his actions with a "yeah it was horrible, but I'm good now".

 

To be honest, I think that Dalinar's biggest weakness will finally be exploited. As Sadeas puts it, he "never really trusts anyone to do the job." That's why he will be his own champion, even though Kaladin and Szeth are both significantly more powerful fighters. And him choosing himself will lead to him losing the contest of champions. 

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Posted (edited)

I have a theory based on the dilema from the Way of Kings Taravngian and Dalinar argued about (1 of 4 men is a killer, the rest innocent. who do you punish?):

Taravangian will bring 100 people to the contest. One of them is his champion but Dalinar doesn`t know who and they don`t fight back (so they don`t contradict the rules of the contest). 

Taravangian Knows that Dalinar won`t kill the innocent people in order to win the contest so he is winning.

 

This scenario can also fulfil the "sackling babe" death rattle if one of the 100 people is a baby.

 

 

What do you think? (this is my first theory posted in the forum so probably it is clearly imposiblle but I didn`t notice the reason).

Edited by offer
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9 hours ago, Torol Sadeas said:

I always thought this was fulfilled when Szeth didn't kill Taravangian in his last chapter in The Way of Kings. I'm pretty sure it explicitly says something like "honor prevailed, for the moment." 

The Death Rattle "So the night shall reign, for the choice of Honor is life." Is from WoR so it can't have been about something from WoK

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Posted (edited)

22 hours ago, Frustration said:

The Death Rattle "So the night shall reign, for the choice of Honor is life." Is from WoR so it can't have been about something from WoK

Thanks for the correction 

 

Personally, I'm still not a fan of these Gavinor theories. The contest of champions has too much build up over 4 books to be decided with a cheap trick. It would be awful narrative wise imo 

Edited by Torol Sadeas
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Personally I think that the contest of champions is going to be more similar to the final battle from the Wheel of Time (spoilers):

Spoiler

where it's Dalinar and Taravangian using spiritual realm mumbo-jumbo to create visions to try and convince the other that they are in the right. Both Dalinar and Rayse pointed out that they didn't have the final say in what their underlings would do, and both of them would want to televise the debate to allow them to convince the other side. This is why Dalinar is so confident that he should be the champion, since the battle would not be with spears but with visions.

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My crackpot theory is Dalinar uses Connection to make Taravangian his champion. Odium promised not to kill anyone born in Kharbranth and the Shard is still bound by that. Taravangian is in a catch 22 he can't kill his own Champion, whoever that is, the Shard can't kill Taravangian to win the contest. This creates a schism between the Vessel Taravangian and the Shard Odium. Odium breaks away from Taravangian (like it had been trying to break away from Rayse in RoW), but Dalinar "Unites Them". Them being Honor (reformed by Dalinar) and Odium. 

How does Dalinar use Connection to make Taravangian his champion? Ishar nearly took the Stormfather bond and Dalinar's status as Odium's opponent in the contest from Dalinar in RoW until Szeth and Nightblood stopped him. Dalinar will do what Ishar was trying to do except he'll take the status of champion from whoever he originally nominates and give it to Taravangian. 

Like I said, crackpot, but I think it's a satisfying way to pay off the "Spare Kharbranth" promise. 

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On 6/24/2022 at 5:02 AM, Tower said:

I do not like the Gavinor champion theory, I would rather see him in the back 5 as a main.

I agree that Gavinor wouldn’t be a great option, partly because I think he will be an important character in the back 5. I personally think the Gavinor speculations are right that he is experiencing Odium-like tendencies, though I don’t think this will make him the champion. I think it’s more likely that he will be a Moash-esque antihero (though hopefully not quite as evil) in the second half. 

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On 6/26/2022 at 1:54 PM, Frustration said:

The Death Rattle "So the night shall reign, for the choice of Honor is life." Is from WoR so it can't have been about something from WoK

I don't know... Taravangian becoming Odium was still future, even if the choice wasn't.

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On 6/26/2022 at 6:00 AM, Torol Sadeas said:

It would have a great impact, but make very little sense narratively. The little hints you talk about are all conflicts between Adolin and Dalinar where Adolin is completely correct and Dalinar is a bit of a douche. For example when Dalinar constantly judges his clothing for no reason at all. As if wearing a slightly ornamented uniform is the embodiment of evil. Or when he compares the killing of Sadeas to his own war crimes in one of the RoW chapters.. I think those "hints" are only meant to show how Dalinar's sense of Honor is an extreme in its own way. He even takes the "the next step is the most important one" thing too far, as he tends to just dismiss his actions with a "yeah it was horrible, but I'm good now".

It makes sense narratively too. We’ve seen Adolin angry to the point where he is described as “irrevocably angry” and we haven’t really seen the fallout from Adolin killing Sadeas or Adolin learning about how Dalinar killed Evi. There are some WoBs that say these points are going to be addressed.
Those hanging threads can also be catalyzed with my points about Ba-Ado-Mishram. Adolin gets fed some information that leads him to believe that releasing her will restore Maya, being hotheaded he goes after BAMs release and is ultimately put to a point where Dalinar is the one standing in his way. They already have a strained relationship, it just needs to hit a point to get Adolin to be “irrevocably angry” again and I wouldn’t think Taravodium is incapable of that level of craftiness. 

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23 hours ago, Tower said:

It makes sense narratively too. We’ve seen Adolin angry to the point where he is described as “irrevocably angry” and we haven’t really seen the fallout from Adolin killing Sadeas or Adolin learning about how Dalinar killed Evi. 

My problem is that Adolin is simply the character who I agree with a lot more in this discussion. With regard to the second part of this sentence, we haven't seen any real fallout for Dalinar either, have we? And their crimes aren't even close to comparable. That's why their talk in RoW bothers me so much, Dalinar basically equates Adolin's killing of Sadeas with his slaughtering of thousands of innocents. So yes, he is angry, but if you want to set Adolin up for joining Odium make him do actually questionable things. And no, killing Sadeas was not a morally questionable thing. Just like defeating the Nazis required killing many people in WWII, defeating Odium and saving humanity required killing Sadeas. And I think that is the message Brandon is really trying to get across with this plotline: Dalinar's sense of honor is also an extreme ideology. Not to mention that there is a decent argument that Adolin only acted in self-defense.  

When Adolin killed Sadeas he undeniably saved hundreds of thousands, if not millions of lives. If he doesn't kill Sadeas, Odium just wins the war straight up. Why would you suddenly want to make this act look bad? It wasn't bad and several Radiant orders are in complete and total agreement with it. Even Kaladin probably wouldn't hold it against Adolin. There will be no significant fallout. Even if Adolin killing Sadeas becomes public knowledge, Jasnah will pardon him and she will be right in doing so. 

I can somewhat see your point, but Adolin is just right about Sadeas and just right in the debates with his father. It's (imo) an awful idea to make him join Odium on the basis of completely justified feelings. The change from his (more than understandable) frustrations with Dalinar to outright betraying everyone he loves and joining an evil force in just ten days is just a bridge too far. 

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6 hours ago, Torol Sadeas said:

My problem is that Adolin is simply the character who I agree with a lot more in this discussion. With regard to the second part of this sentence, we haven't seen any real fallout for Dalinar either, have we? And their crimes aren't even close to comparable. That's why their talk in RoW bothers me so much, Dalinar basically equates Adolin's killing of Sadeas with his slaughtering of thousands of innocents. So yes, he is angry, but if you want to set Adolin up for joining Odium make him do actually questionable things. And no, killing Sadeas was not a morally questionable thing. Just like defeating the Nazis required killing many people in WWII, defeating Odium and saving humanity required killing Sadeas. And I think that is the message Brandon is really trying to get across with this plotline: Dalinar's sense of honor is also an extreme ideology. Not to mention that there is a decent argument that Adolin only acted in self-defense.  

When Adolin killed Sadeas he undeniably saved hundreds of thousands, if not millions of lives. If he doesn't kill Sadeas, Odium just wins the war straight up. Why would you suddenly want to make this act look bad? It wasn't bad and several Radiant orders are in complete and total agreement with it. Even Kaladin probably wouldn't hold it against Adolin. There will be no significant fallout. Even if Adolin killing Sadeas becomes public knowledge, Jasnah will pardon him and she will be right in doing so. 

I can somewhat see your point, but Adolin is just right about Sadeas and just right in the debates with his father. It's (imo) an awful idea to make him join Odium on the basis of completely justified feelings. The change from his (more than understandable) frustrations with Dalinar to outright betraying everyone he loves and joining an evil force in just ten days is just a bridge too far. 

I'm not arguing that killing Sadeas was morally wrong, or even necessarily needs to be interpreted that was. It is his frame of mind that is what I'm zeroing in on, he lost control. The theory is more that Adolin is very susceptible to being manipulated due to his hotheadedness and his current motivations (restoring Maya and the strain on his relationship with Dalinar) and he will lose control again.

The way I see it going is more Adolin starts getting some clues that releasing Ba-Ado-Mishram is the key to restoring Maya and Dalinar is stopping him from acting on that information. There's already a rift in that relationship and it could reach a fever pitch because I don't see a way Adolin would be swayed out of restoring Maya and getting in his way really setting him off. Think of it more of Adolin feeling as if he is the one being betrayed when he ultimately makes the decision.

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On 6/22/2022 at 9:14 AM, Tower said:

Ok I am kind of shooting from the hip but these are my Contest of Champions predictions (again spoilers in case I’m right and ruin SA5):

1. Adolin will be Odium’s champion. Reread the scene of him killing Sadeas and tell me he can’t be swayed to Odium with the right push, quickly. Plus, Shallan is going to be a worldhopper and that moves forward a lot easier without her husband.

2. Ba-Ado-Mishram is going to be a factor in Adolin becoming Odium’s champion, maybe some cleverly selective info from Taravodium to manipulate his desire to restore Maya. I’m not sure on this but the info we have so far aligns BAM’s imprisonment with Maya’s potential restoration, and that would be very interesting to look at from Adolin’s prespective and anyone who knows about Maya (and who knows how many beings will have heard about the trial).

3. Dalinar will beat, but refuse to kill, Adolin and ultimately break the terms of the contest of champions and end up releasing Odium from the Rosharan system. We know there’s a greater war shaping up and Odium leaving Roshar works better in SA5 than SA10. Also, we have mention of men in gold and red outside of Roshar and Brandon has said those colors are the motif of Odium. It’s also something where we could see Dalinar questioning if some oaths are/should be more important than others.

4. Adolin is going to be removed from the main cast. I like the idea of him becoming a Fused more because of the ramifications that would have on the rest of the cast, particularly Shallan and Renarin (Shallan of course becoming a worldhopper, but Renarin in terms of defining corruption versus enlightenment).

5. BAM’s imprisonment might have been damaging to Roshar, but her release will set her up to be a (maybe inadvertent) big bad in the back 5. I don’t know, I’m just getting some previous cosmere book vibes and a greater war needs a drill sergeant on a certain Shard’s designated training ground.

I’m probably wrong, but this makes the most sense to me with the info available. There’s plenty of clues, but Adolin’s corruption also serves foreshadowing for other characters too.

 

Like your ideas, even if I don't think they're likely it would be an interesting story!  Here are my predictions:

 

1) Dalinar chooses to be his own champion, as expected.  A big part of the drama for the first 2/3 of the book is in who will become Odium's champion.

2) Adolin/Shallan plotline is largely focused on Ba-Ado-Mishram, but also in the interaction with the Ghostbloods.  Their plotline will be the one that looks outward into the Cosmere.  They  will arrive only just in time for the Contest of Champions.  Their plot will keep them (or return them?) to the Cognitive Realm.

3) Kaladin and Szeth go to Shinovar and we will get some kind of revelation as to what the Shin have been up to.  Szeth makes progress and swears the 5th Ideal.

4) Kaladin attempts to "heal" Ishar of his madness.  This fails - teaching Kaladin that not every problem can be solved and that in some cases it's better not to try because he can't literally do everything and save everyone all the time.  Ishar continues his insanity but does not pose a threat to the immediate issue - the contest of champions - so Kaladin and Szeth leave.  Kaladin starts to better learn what it means to be a leader, especially a higher level leader (he has to trust his subordinates to make good decisions without his direct guidance and generally shouldn't enter the battle directly himself) which allows him to swear his 5th Ideal, which gains him additonal powers to "buff" allies in some way.

5) Nale is selected as Odium's champion.  He defeats and kills Dalinar in a straight up battle, leading to Dalinar becoming a fused.  Nale decides independently from Odium that he is now obligated to purge Roshar of humans since he sided with the Singers and he begins a violent crusade which doesn't violate Odium's deal since Nale is acting on his own.  This happens at about the 2/3 point in the book.

5.5) One of Nale's first acts is to punish Adolin for his murder of Sadeas.  He sees Dalinar/Jasnah's lack of action on that crime as particularly loathsome, a perversion of justice to let his son go without punishment.  He tries to kill Adolin, but Adolin escapes into the cognitive realm and becomes a worldhopper, knowing Nale can't follow.

6) Since this is Szeth's book - he is the one who faces down with Nale in a battle of 5th Ideal Skybreakers to determine what is truly required by the law.  Kaladin helps by buffing Szeth.

7) Simultaneous with the Nale/Szeth battle, Moash arrives and has a final showdown with Kaladin.  Kaladin has to fight at a disadvantage because he's committed a lot of his power to help Szeth.

8) Szeth defeats Nale.  As Nale is dying, he tells Szeth that this is what he brought him back to life to do - to stop him from becoming too hard hearted and dogmatic.  Nale dies for real (somehow).

9) Kaladin defeats Moash despite being without a lot of his powers.  He spares Moash, who escapes and is set up as one of the big bads for the back 5 of Stormlight.

 

I'll be surprised if any of this actually happens, but figured I'd throw my thoughts out there.

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