Contest of Champions/SA5 Predictions

[Tower]

Ok I am kind of shooting from the hip but these are my Contest of Champions predictions (again spoilers in case I’m right and ruin SA5):

1. Adolin will be Odium’s champion. Reread the scene of him killing Sadeas and tell me he can’t be swayed to Odium with the right push, quickly. Plus, Shallan is going to be a worldhopper and that moves forward a lot easier without her husband.

2. Ba-Ado-Mishram is going to be a factor in Adolin becoming Odium’s champion, maybe some cleverly selective info from Taravodium to manipulate his desire to restore Maya. I’m not sure on this but the info we have so far aligns BAM’s imprisonment with Maya’s potential restoration, and that would be very interesting to look at from Adolin’s prespective and anyone who knows about Maya (and who knows how many beings will have heard about the trial).

3. Dalinar will beat, but refuse to kill, Adolin and ultimately break the terms of the contest of champions and end up releasing Odium from the Rosharan system. We know there’s a greater war shaping up and Odium leaving Roshar works better in SA5 than SA10. Also, we have mention of men in gold and red outside of Roshar and Brandon has said those colors are the motif of Odium. It’s also something where we could see Dalinar questioning if some oaths are/should be more important than others.

4. Adolin is going to be removed from the main cast. I like the idea of him becoming a Fused more because of the ramifications that would have on the rest of the cast, particularly Shallan and Renarin (Shallan of course becoming a worldhopper, but Renarin in terms of defining corruption versus enlightenment).

5. BAM’s imprisonment might have been damaging to Roshar, but her release will set her up to be a (maybe inadvertent) big bad in the back 5. I don’t know, I’m just getting some previous cosmere book vibes and a greater war needs a drill sergeant on a certain Shard’s designated training ground.

I’m probably wrong, but this makes the most sense to me with the info available. There’s plenty of clues, but Adolin’s corruption also serves foreshadowing for other characters too.

 

Edited June 22, 2022 by Tower

[Legui01010]

Seems interesting, but why would Adolin strike a bargain or side with Odium, Maya would probably warn him off (if Shallan, Dalinar or the others don't, which doesn't seem likely). He just begun to walk a path (while not Radiance) to bond with Maya, in a way no there Radiant has before (that we know of). Also Kelek strongly suggested to release Ba-Ado-Mishram, which would mean an important turn, could be good or bad, but she is just an Unmade, hardly a match against the power of a Shard (even if she must be the most powerful of the Unmade). 

I do agree on the part of Todium finding a way to wiggle out of the bargain by doing something during the Contest of Champions, and it must be fast cause Hoid does realise of Taravangian's deception and stealing of his memories (Brandon said it during a Q&A I think, I don't have the quote here).

 

[Tower]

I’m leaning on Adolin being pushed primarily because once it’s on his radar that BAM’s imprisonment is part of what caused Maya to become a deadeye, he’s going to pursue it out of a desire to bring Maya back. That motivation would be extremely easy for Odium to manipulate.

[Frustration]

1 hour ago, Tower said:

Plus, Shallan is going to be a worldhopper and that moves forward a lot easier without her husband.

Shallan is not confirmed to be a worldhopper.

1 hour ago, Tower said:

3. Dalinar will beat, but refuse to kill, Adolin and ultimately break the terms of the contest of champions and end up releasing Odium from the Rosharan system. We know there’s a greater war shaping up and Odium leaving Roshar works better in SA5 than SA10. Also, we have mention of men in gold and red outside of Roshar and Brandon has said those colors are the motif of Odium. It’s also something where we could see Dalinar questioning if some oaths are/should be more important than others.

How does Dalinar not killing Adolin break the terms of the contest?

[Tower]

 

13 minutes ago, Frustration said:

Shallan is not confirmed to be a worldhopper.

How does Dalinar not killing Adolin break the terms of the contest?

Shallan is going to be a worldhopper, heavily alluded to with her arc in RoW.

The terms of the contest are a fight to the death. Dalinar refusing to kill Adolin after beating him would technically break the terms, and we've already seen that Taravangian will exploit technicalities in the rules he's bound to.

[Frustration]

2 minutes ago, Tower said:

Shallan is going to be a worldhopper, heavily alluded to with her arc in RoW.

Unconfirmed.

2 minutes ago, Tower said:

The terms of the contest are a fight to the death. Dalinar refusing to kill Adolin after beating him would technically break the terms, and we've already seen that Taravangian will exploit technicalities in the rules he's bound to.

He can try all he wants, but Taravangian doesn't control the agreement. Dalinar is under no obligation to kill Odium's champion, just to participate.

Edited June 22, 2022 by Frustration

[Tower]

3 minutes ago, Frustration said:

Unconfirmed.

He can try all he wants, but Taravangian doesn't control the agreement. Dalinar is under no obligation to kill Odium's champion, just to participate.

It might be unconfirmed, but clues still point to it heavily, RoW ch 115 really sets it up.

Taravangian doesn't control the agreement, but the agreement is a contest of champions to the death, it's the first sentence of the final terms. There is specific mention that if Dalinar breaks the terms of the deal, Odium is released.

[Frustration]

1 minute ago, Tower said:

Taravangian doesn't control the agreement, but the agreement is a contest of champions to the death, it's the first sentence of the final terms. There is specific mention that if Dalinar breaks the terms of the deal, Odium is released.

The terms do not require Dalinar to kill Odium's champion, only to participate.

[Tower]

6 minutes ago, Frustration said:

The terms do not require Dalinar to kill Odium's champion, only to participate.

Yes they do. "The final terms are these: A contest of champions to the death" and unless I'm mistaken Dalinar plans to be his own champion. Meaning he would have to kill Odium's champion.

Edited June 22, 2022 by Tower

[Frustration]

Just now, Tower said:

Yes they do. The final terms are a contest of champions to the death ("The final terms are these: A contest of champions to the death.), and unless I'm mistaken Dalinar plans to be his own champion. Meaning he would have to kill Odium's champion.

He would have to kill Odium's champion to win. Not to complete the terms. Or do you think that the instant the contest begins the agreement is invalidated because neither champion is dead?

[cometaryorbit]

13 minutes ago, Frustration said:

He would have to kill Odium's champion to win. Not to complete the terms. Or do you think that the instant the contest begins the agreement is invalidated because neither champion is dead?

No, but this could still be an issue as we are told that the Intent is important here.

I think there's no issue as long as both sides are trying/Intending to participate in a duel to the death.

But if Dalinar clearly wins and still refuses to kill the other champion that could be construed as an Intent to back out of the contest in the middle, which could be trouble.

(I don't think Adolin will be Odium's champion though, I'd expect either Nale, Ishar, or Moash with a last minute switch out of Kaladin for Dalinar.)

 

[Tower]

7 minutes ago, Frustration said:

He would have to kill Odium's champion to win. Not to complete the terms. Or do you think that the instant the contest begins the agreement is invalidated because neither champion is dead?

My theory is that Dalinar will beat, but ultimately refuse to kill Adolin. Taravangian, being clever enough to exploit the minutia of that phrase, would say Dalinar is not fulfilling the terms. My assumption is that the possibilities Taravangian saw that Rayse didn't was crafting a way to get Dalinar to break the terms of the agreement.

[Brgst13]

Just now, cometaryorbit said:

No, but this could still be an issue as we are told that the Intent is important here.

I think there's no issue as long as both sides are trying/Intending to participate in a duel to the death.

But if Dalinar clearly wins and still refuses to kill the other champion that could be construed as an Intent to back out of the contest in the middle, which could be trouble.

(I don't think Adolin will be Odium's champion though, I'd expect either Nale, Ishar, or Moash with a last minute switch out of Kaladin for Dalinar.)

 

That last piece aligns nicely with that Death Rattle as well-the tower, crown and spear being Dalinar's house symbol, position, and Kaladin's preferred weapon.  The "fallen title" would be champion of Honor, meant for the Son of Tanavast.

[cometaryorbit]

Just now, Brgst13 said:

That last piece aligns nicely with that Death Rattle as well-the tower, crown and spear being Dalinar's house symbol, position, and Kaladin's preferred weapon.  The "fallen title" would be champion of Honor, meant for the Son of Tanavast.

Yeah it fits really well - and a Kaladin vs Moash contest would close out the first arc very fittingly, calling back to all the Bridge 4 focus in WoK.

But I have two problems with it:

- it seems way too obvious; Moash is the most obvious champion-of-Odium choice so probably not the right one

- it seems like we're being set up for 3 major plot lines in book 5; Dalinar dealing with the contest of champions; Shallan and Adolin dealing with Ba-Ado-Mishram, Maya and the deadeyes generally, and Ghostblood stuff; Kaladin and Szeth dealing with Shinovar (the Unmade there, the Stone Shamans, the remaining Honorblades).

[Brgst13]

Just now, cometaryorbit said:

Yeah it fits really well - and a Kaladin vs Moash contest would close out the first arc very fittingly, calling back to all the Bridge 4 focus in WoK.

But I have two problems with it:

- it seems way too obvious; Moash is the most obvious champion-of-Odium choice so probably not the right one

- it seems like we're being set up for 3 major plot lines in book 5; Dalinar dealing with the contest of champions; Shallan and Adolin dealing with Ba-Ado-Mishram, Maya and the deadeyes generally, and Ghostblood stuff; Kaladin and Szeth dealing with Shinovar (the Unmade there, the Stone Shamans, the remaining Honorblades).

1. It will not be Moash-it will be an infant or a small child.  "Then Night shall reign for the choice of Honor is life."  There is another Death Rattle about holding a knife to a small child and how all who live want to let the blade slip and with that gain us further breath to draw.

2. Remember why Kaladin is going to Shinovar: he wants to try to heal Ishar so Ishar can help Dalinar master his powers.  This suggests that somehow Ishar gets back to Urithiru in less than 10 days.  This is a very tight timeline!

[cometaryorbit]

I have never been convinced by that interpretation of those death Rattles, and imo they don't necessarily refer to the same event/situation.

It's possible all of book 5 will cover just ten days ("the Final Ten Days"). But I doubt the healing Ishar plan will work out.

[StormingTexan]

37 minutes ago, Brgst13 said:

1. It will not be Moash-it will be an infant or a small child.  "Then Night shall reign for the choice of Honor is life."  There is another Death Rattle about holding a knife to a small child and how all who live want to let the blade slip and with that gain us further breath to draw.

I am worried the child will be Adolin and Shallan's spawn. 

Quote

I hold the suckling child in my hands, a knife at his throat, and know that all who live wish me to let the blade slip. Spill its blood upon the ground, over my hands, and with it gain us further breath to draw. 

 

Edited June 22, 2022 by StormingTexan

[Duxredux]

21 minutes ago, StormingTexan said:

I am worried the child will be Adolin and Shallan's spawn. 

The time table is too short, the contest of champions takes place in 10 days from the end of RoW I think. If those Death Rattles about the child refer to this contest, the best candidate I've heard for Odium's Champion is Gavinor Kholin, the rightful king of Alethkar. If Dalinar is his own champion, and the contest requires a fight to the death, I don't see a way right now for him to go into combat with Gavinor and not lose in one way or another, either breaking his agreement with Odium or breaking his Oath to unite instead of divide (I can't see killing a child or the rightful king of Alethkar not being divisive in one way or another), losing his Bondsmith status and possibly making the Stormfather into a Deadeyes. I also believe that Taravangian would send a child to die in this contest, it's no worse than harvesting Death Rattles.

Gavinor is acting rather hateful and vengeful for such a young child.

Edited June 22, 2022 by Duxredux
added another thought

[StormingTexan]

13 minutes ago, Duxredux said:

The time table is too short, the contest of champions takes place in 10 days from the end of RoW I think. If those Death Rattles about the child refer to this contest, the best candidate I've heard for Odium's Champion is Gavinor Kholin, the rightful king of Alethkar. If Dalinar is his own champion, and the contest requires a fight to the death, I don't see a way right now for him to go into combat with Gavinor and not lose in one way or another, either breaking his agreement with Odium or breaking his Oath to unite instead of divide (I can't see killing a child or the rightful king of Alethkar not being divisive in one way or another), losing his Bondsmith status and possibly making the Stormfather into a Deadeyes.

Gavinor is acting rather hateful and vengeful for such a young child.

Should have clarified I am not sure this has to do with the contest of champions although I agree it sounds like it. I meant just in general and sorry my comment was a little random. As far a Gavinor I think he is past "suckling" or at least I hope so lol. Although I do not disagree of him being a potential champion. It would for sure create a no win situation. My problem is wouldn't he have to agree to be a willing champion? Not sure how a 3 year old could be a willing champion at least if he also needs the intent. 

Edited June 22, 2022 by StormingTexan

[cometaryorbit]

Yeah I think the Intent issue is a major problem for the Gavinor theory.

Plus it just doesn't sound right for the story imo.

Also, "all who live... further breath to draw" doesn't sound relevant to this contest anyway. The survival of humanity on Roshar doesn't rest on this any more. I think this is either a back half thing; not especially literal (maybe a newborn spren of some sort - a new Unmade or Odiumspren?); or maybe something to do with Yelig-nar style "possession".

"Choice of honor is life" one to me sounds more like one of the Honor associated characters' decision to spare or save someone's life having really disastrous consequences down the road. (And the actual choice might have already happened - we've seen several possibilities- just not the consequences yet.)

[Tower]

42 minutes ago, cometaryorbit said:

Yeah I think the Intent issue is a major problem for the Gavinor theory.

Plus it just doesn't sound right for the story imo.

Also, "all who live... further breath to draw" doesn't sound relevant to this contest anyway. The survival of humanity on Roshar doesn't rest on this any more. I think this is either a back half thing; not especially literal (maybe a newborn spren of some sort - a new Unmade or Odiumspren?); or maybe something to do with Yelig-nar style "possession".

"Choice of honor is life" one to me sounds more like one of the Honor associated characters' decision to spare or save someone's life having really disastrous consequences down the road. (And the actual choice might have already happened - we've seen several possibilities- just not the consequences yet.)

That death rattle is one that I’m co-opting for my theory, but I interpret it as being about Adolin from Dalinar’s prospective. Adolin is the only character so far that we’ve seen at an age where they would be breastfeeding (apart from Oroden) during Dalinar’s flashback in Oathbringer. “Holding a knife to a suckling child’s throat” fits really well with Dalinar beating Adolin in the contest of champions but refusing to kill him because it is his son, there’s always going to be part of him that sees him as that baby. 

[cometaryorbit]

I'm not sure I see Shallan going full on worldhopper yet. Cosmere aware sure, but actually leaving Roshar long term while all this is going on? Though I guess that depends on how resolved things look at the end of book 5... just because *we* know another arc is coming 10 years or so later doesn't mean the characters necessarily will, if things *look* solved/stable.

[Tower]

15 minutes ago, cometaryorbit said:

I'm not sure I see Shallan going full on worldhopper yet. Cosmere aware sure, but actually leaving Roshar long term while all this is going on? Though I guess that depends on how resolved things look at the end of book 5... just because *we* know another arc is coming 10 years or so later doesn't mean the characters necessarily will, if things *look* solved/stable.

The last we saw of Shallan, she declared war on the Ghostbloods. It isn’t much of a stretch to think picking a fight with an interplanetary organization will lead to them fighting that organization on more than one planet.

[cometaryorbit]

6 minutes ago, Tower said:

The last we saw of Shallan, she declared war on the Ghostbloods. It isn’t much of a stretch to think picking a fight with an interplanetary organization will lead to them fighting that organization on more than one planet.

Oh I think it's likely in the long term, my skepticism is more whether it happens in *this* book. Especially if it really only covers 10 days.

(Which I kind of doubt, but there is that "first of the Final Ten Days" reference.)

It might happen in arc 2, or Shallan might pop up in Mistborn Era 3 or something.

[Tower]

Just now, cometaryorbit said:

Oh I think it's likely in the long term, my skepticism is more whether it happens in *this* book. Especially if it really only covers 10 days.

(Which I kind of doubt, but there is that "first of the Final Ten Days" reference.)

It might happen in arc 2, or Shallan might pop up in Mistborn Era 3 or something.

We will see, but we know a showdown between her and Mraize is bound to happen in SA5. We also know that certain worldhopper (who isn’t a Thaidakar fan) is going off world after SA5, and that worldhopper has a history with Shallan and a close relationship her mentor (who is also at war with the Ghostbloods). So all I’m saying is this: the pieces are there, and one piece would stop her unless my prediction is accurate.