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Posted (edited)

xino

Edited by Matrim's Dice
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Xino

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5 minutes ago, Archer said:

well either Xino is gambling and bussing someone who might be a teammate. Or I thought maybe they knew from an emissary PM. They haven't claimed their role yet so it's an option option. 

We have an Emissary claim in our doc and it's not with Xino. Don't know if that helps.

5 minutes ago, Archer said:

Edit: "My reasoning really just boils down to Books being up for the filter kill/replacement on failing the check-in in one more cycle." wait not that's a terrible reason  >.> 

Basically it's a "I'm ok with the filter taking care of Books, and if Books filter-dodges, then that's sus."

But FYI, I do somewhat suspect Books might be deliberately refusing to engage with the doc. I just don't know if it's Evil or not - I base this off the fact we haven't yet had communication, and it seems to me unlikely that the GM would not make accomodations for a player with no doc access. It's basically in the generic rules. So that feels a bit deliberate and IDK what to make of it.

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xinoehp512 has been executed! He was a Defector Capricious Enlightened!

Matrim's Dice has been killed! He was a Selfless Bodyguard Honorspren!

Vote Count:

Xino (4): Mat, Wizard, Archer, Kas
Kas (1):
Symphonium (0): Xino

Cycle 3 has begun! There is an execution this cycle with no vote minimum and random ties. 

The cycle will end on June 18th at 0400 GMT.

Player List:

Spoiler
  1. @xinoehp512 - Defector Capricious Enlightened
  2. @Matrim's Dice - Pie - Selfless Bodyguard Honorspren
  3. @The Unknown Novel - Amorphous Cryptic
  4. @HOID WANTS INSTANT NOODLES - Fendor
  5. @The Wandering Wizard
  6. @Archer - Angry
  7. @Kasimir - Sirak
  8. @SymphonianBookworm - Valley

 

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Oh cool. I'll reiterate my threat that I will out whoever night kills me, making attacking me mutually assured destruction. I'm also outnumbered by the other village faction, so I need a mix and an NK, then I'll happily kill the final elim with y'all. Unless Kas really is evil, I don't forsee not knowing who the final elim is next round, so I'm just hoping whichever you choose of Symph and Wiz is wrong. If you're an elim in danger, I'll throw you a bone by voting against the majority pick this round. Maybe you'll get lucky with vote manip or something. 

@SymphonianBookworm  sorry I almost voted you last round 

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Didn't expect this but it's not wholly shocking. 

Off the bat, I'm going to say this soft clears Archer in my eyes, and Archer will likely be a living fixture since his death would more or less guarantee the HS can kill the surviving Elim as long as Archer picks a good deadeyes contact. Some paranoia thoughts but I'm going to ignore them for now.

I do find Hoid's claim prima facie plausible given confirmation from 

It's good to see Mat was clean and the fact Mat couldn't self-protect likely made him the kill priority.

I'm going to vote Books/Symphonium for this cycle, despite Books also being on death row. I'll come back to this, I guess, since the other candidate for me is Wiz. I find it prima facie plausible that Books is refusing to engage, and also note that Wiz and I had both roleclaimed in the doc. One way Mat would be the obvious kill for a HS Elim (or I suppose xino, if xino had the kill) might be because of Archer's discussion of the likely protector, but also the other possibility is simple elimination - Bodyguard can't self-protect so I can't be the Bodyguard and I'd already claimed, Wiz had also already claimed, and Books knows their own role, so they'd know to put the kill in on Mat.

No current thoughts on what to make of Wiz - feel the late vote could easily be a soft bus (since Wiz likely doesn't know if xino is Evil) but open to thoughts.

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Posted (edited)

I also suspect archer.

Edited by The Wandering Wizard
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Sirak wasn't sure he liked this.

Pie was dead, and it turned out that Pie was the one who'd saved him. Not that it was the hardest guess to make, though it did make Sirak wonder about Valley. Perhaps Valley wasn't who they'd all thought the spren was.

Did it matter right now?

Fendor had spoken. As had Wiz.

Even so, Sirak accepted the patent absurdity of the situation. He didn't even think Anger was Enlightened, really. Just that Anger had a number of temper control issues, and well, there they were. Some of the Archivists would've said Sirak had temper control issues. But really, he just didn't suffer fools. You didn't get to his age by being patient with people who wasted your time getting you to pull seventy-five articles from the Archives, only to decide that what they wanted was in another section after all.

"I'll back an inquiry into Anger," he drawled. "I'm not sure I quite like it, but it looks like the negotiations have stalled."

[OOC: Voting Archer.]

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Posted (edited)

54 minutes ago, HOID WANTS INSTANT NOODLES said:

I suspectt archer, and so vote him as my Honor requires it.

So here's the thing. You're in a faction with three people that wins when the elim dies. I am not the elim. If two members of your faction die today, it'll be a three way tie: one Cryp, one Honor, one elim. If I vote you out, I lose because the elim reaches parity with me. If I vote the elim out, I win because we'll kill the last elim and have equal numbers - which is a shared wincon. 

huh what a coincidence you've all decided to vote for me at the same time :D. Can someone tell me if the calculation is get rid of the other faction then win through force of numbers, or do you think I'm evil? Just want to know which way to defend myself

Edit edit: I'm not evil because Devo wouldn't make the Crypto team have only one player on it

And if you don't have a clear idea of which of Wizard or Symph the elim is, your final round will be Hoid vs those two with no clear idea of who to shoot. Unless you have some role stuff going on. Kas is cleared from C1, why not take the easy win? 

edit: time for some RP
 

Spoiler

:angry:

 

Edited by Archer
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Posted (edited)

48 minutes ago, Archer said:

huh what a coincidence you've all decided to vote for me at the same time :D. Can someone tell me if the calculation is get rid of the other faction then win through force of numbers, or do you think I'm evil? Just want to know which way to defend myself

I absolutely don't think you're Evil, no. I would be down for a joint faction victory but I don't think there's the consensus for it. Otherwise, I point to AG7 where I was willing to take the ML to ensure we could co-win with the neutrals.

In theory, we're very likely tied - I don't buy that you guys have no Defector, meaning that one of <Wiz, Books> is likely a fellow Cryptic of yours, and one of them is Evil. So here's the calculus:

If a Cryptic Defector Exists:

Scenario 1:

We ML the Cryptic Defector. This entails that the set-up for the next cycle is: 1 Cryptic, 1 HS Defector, 1 Elim. The Elim kill and the exe go through at the same time, so this minimally means one of us loses, based on who the Elim picks.

I don't even know if we can ML the Cryptic Defector as the Cryptic Defector has an incentive to claim to try to form a voting bloc with you and this leaves the Elim as the kingmaker. 

Scenario 2:

We kill the Elim. We're currently 2 HS and 2 Cryptics, so the Elim is once again kingmaker, with one faction losing.

Scenario 3:

We ML you. The Elim has a weak incentive to vote with us as you're pretty much confirmed Village, meaning you can't be alive in any reasonable endgame for that Elim, and killing you before you are the last player standing is a death sentence. The set-up for the next cycle is 1 Cryptic Defector, 1 HS Defector, 1 Elim. 

If a Cryptic Defector Doesn't Exist:

Scenario 4:

We ML a HS. This entails that the set-up for the next cycle is: 1 Cryptic, 1 HS Defector, 1 Elim. Same analysis. Elim decides who wins.

Scenario 5:

We lynch the Elim. Immediate HS victory.

Scenario 6: 

We ML you. One HS dies. The set-up for next cycle is 1 HS + 1 Defector, 1 Elim. 

None of this factors in Books dying from inactivity which is a problem for us if Books is Village. But I think Books has been lingering in the doc so it is possible Books could be sending in actions. I don't think exeing you is necessarily superior - it just makes a difference for us between Scenario 3 and Scenario 6.

I'm open to being talked otherwise.

Edited to add: @Archer Bro I think you misread the rules. Elims win on outnumbering. Both Cryptics and Honorspren can joint win on parity. There is no parity condition for the Elims.

Edited to add 2: @HOID WANTS INSTANT NOODLES - How do you feel about going into the final round to potentially try to win for the HS?

Edited by Kasimir
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Or maybe I’m intentionally publicly misrepresenting the rules to prove Mat wrong. :P. Thank you for the breakdown, and the correction.

With respect to the possibility of a joint win, I understand that your faction is under no obligation to orchestrate one, but I will point out that intentionally exing someone you know to be not evil seems counter-productive, regardless of the game plan.

Doing my due diligence, would you mind back reading the emissary PM to determine whether Hoid might have taken inspiration from it to service a Defector lie? I think it’s reasonable to assume they didn’t independently pull that off unless someone brought up the role.

Oh. I just realized something. We are tied and Symph is the Cryptic Defector. That’s why they asked me who I was voting for. So right now it’s

Cryptics: Me and Symph. HS: Hoid and Kas. Evil: Wizard.

HS!Symph would be playing against their wincon if they lied about being Cryptic, so if they out themselves, would the HS be willing to take a reasonable gamble on exing the final elim for a joint win? @HOID WANTS INSTANT NOODLES  @SymphonianBookworm

Wizard

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1 minute ago, Archer said:

Doing my due diligence, would you mind back reading the emissary PM to determine whether Hoid might have taken inspiration from it to service a Defector lie? I think it’s reasonable to assume they didn’t independently pull that off unless someone brought up the role.

I'm not an Emissary. (In fact, from what I'm saying, it should be patently clear who is.) As the Elims already know, and as the vote count should've hinted - I'm the Social Martyr. I protected Books last cycle by shifting a vote off Books to myself. This also does imply if you talk me around, it's going to be hard to get a lynch off without my being the CW since I can Riot one vote onto myself.

So there's no way of knowing, really, with regard to the Defector lie, but I feel that unless Hoid was under sufficient scrutiny in your doc, little reason to make that lie. Hoid wasn't on the main vote trains C1.

3 minutes ago, Archer said:

HS!Symph would be playing against their wincon if they lied about being Cryptic, so if they out themselves, would the HS be willing to take a reasonable gamble on exing the final elim for a joint win? @HOID WANTS INSTANT NOODLES  @SymphonianBookworm

But the exe and the Elim kill happen at the same time. We're currently 2-2. In other words, we exe the Elim, the Elim simultaneously kills someone, and then this decides which faction wins/loses, because one faction will have only one player left as the result of the kill. @Devotary of Spontaneity Is this the correct way to read this? Both the exe and the kill must be resolved before you decide who wins/loses?

If we're running on the perspective that any Village victory > Elim victory, then I think we have to shrek within <Wiz, Books.> In any reasonable world, I'm the kill target this cycle, and the Elim can't really touch you for the risk that you'll out them. (Given Books' and Hoid's activity levels, IDK, maybe this isn't actually the biggest deal for the Elim. I could see E!Wiz deciding a final three with V!Hoid and V!Books is okay, especially since Books is currently on death row.)

Ok. So rehashing - if Village victory > Elim victory and we're patently fine with the Elim rolling the dice, then one of you/me has to survive to the final three. Not picky which, but this maximises our chances given the activity levels of the others. 

Our absolute worst case scenario is E!Wiz versus V!Hoid since there's a chance of an Elim win and a Village loss there. Hoid has to show up and vote versus Wiz and win a cointoss for this to come to a draw (joint win/loss, as Devo described.) We get to this world if Books doesn't show up this cycle and gets inactivity killed (instead of replaced), and you get lynched, and I get killed (or vice versa.) 

A lot of this depends on whether Books is your Defector. I feel like this makes a bit more sense because Books has been viewing our doc (could be Tani, to be fair), and has seemingly not been replaced in our doc. Wiz has been more vocal about faction dominance but that's not surprising because Orlok absolutely would given certain caveats. (MR7, long story.) I also don't see Wiz pushing so strongly for Cryptic kills if Wiz is also a Cryptic. It's the deepwolf issue again. So yeah, I'd be willing to believe that it's more likely Wiz.

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40 minutes ago, Kasimir said:

@Devotary of Spontaneity Is this the correct way to read this? Both the exe and the kill must be resolved before you decide who wins/loses?

Win conditions are checked at the end of the cycle, after all deaths have occurred.

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@Archer- At the risk of further cementing your thoughts, I note that Books last logged in sixteen hours ago (as of my current check.) Let's break it up - four hours ago was rollover. This means that Books last logged in at the start of last cycle and then did not appear again. I'm doubting that Books would be able to follow closely enough to know to kill Mat, rather than me - especially since if it were Books, Books would've had to put in the kill order at the start of the cycle which makes not very much sense.

I think this entails it's Wiz.

Question is, do you think allowing Wiz to decide which Village faction wins is an endgame you can live with?

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Good to know.

So basically the best we can do is 2v2v1 to 2v1 (elim won’t do that because they’ll lose). Or to 1v1v1, which means the elim picks the winner. Versus if we exe the elim, we end up at 2v1v0. So again, the elim chooses the winner. So if we assume elim competence, there’s no great way out with a joint victory. 

I don’t suppose being exed stops you from submitting the NK? @Devotary of Spontaneity

If we want to kill a HS, Symph, we must vote for Kas because of his role. I think the HS will probably win a head to head matchup of C vs HS because of Symph’s inactivity, so the most advantageous play here is for me to suggest we consolidate on Wiz and let them decide who wins. I like ending the game by voting for an elim on principle anyway. But if you HS guys have the opportunity to hammer your way to victory at EoD, I’ll understand that you’re pursuing your wincon.

Hm. Interesting result. 

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This is all assuming that both of the defectors defected to the opposite side instead of the elim side.

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Functionally, an Elim Defector only wins with the Elims. Pragmatically, players gonna player - can't really do anything about that part.

@Archer Your move.

Archer

Wiz

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32 minutes ago, Archer said:

I don’t suppose being exed stops you from submitting the NK? @Devotary of Spontaneity

The exe happens at the same time as the kill, so neither inhibit the other.

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5 hours ago, Archer said:

@SymphonianBookworm  sorry I almost voted you last round 

Ah-

well... apology accepted?

I don’t think it’ll help if I say I’m not an enlightened spren, but... I’m not an enlightened spren.

I’ll vote for Wiz...

I’m sorry! I just don’t know who else to vote :’)

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as an emisarry I do know that Wizard is an honorspren emissary. dont know if that changes anything but..

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