149 posts in this topic

4 minutes ago, Kasimir said:

Does an attacked player know they were attacked? And do we get to see the vote results?

A player who is attacked and survives is informed, a player who was targeted by a roleblocked kill is not. Edited in the vote tally.

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Protection by an Honorspren, or one elim knows another. Maybe should have done something at the end of the cycle but I wasn't thinking especially straight. Not sure if I would have done anything anyway :P.

For some reason I expected more manip than none, but maybe I'm misremembering how much there is available.

I'll be gone for the large middle portion of this cycle, because sleep. But I should be around for another 45 minutes or so.

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Sirak sat on his chair, paged through his book, and glared stonily at anyone who approached. He'd not wanted to come for the negotiations. In any case, he was retired, and all he wanted was a nice, hot cup of tea, and the scent of old paper in the Archives.

A nice, quiet retirement. Wasn't that what they'd promised him?

And now everyone was trying to kill each other. He hated that.

Even worse, someone had tried to kill him. Blasted spren, no sense of decency these days. Nothing he'd done had called for that. And someone'd saved him - probably another Honorspren, but Sirak hadn't gotten a good look at whoever it was so he couldn't even curse the other spren for not sparing him from the dreadful boredom of the negotiations.


The two leading trains into the cycle close were Cryptics. In my view, it is likely that the Elims would, one way or another, have put in a kill on the Honorspren (henceforth HS.) A lot of this was going to be speculation but there's no need for that as I just got a PM from Devo that I was attacked and someone saved me. Probably another HS, but I respect that this might be indistinguishable from "they hit an Elim" to everyone.

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Fendor wept, Staring at the now lifless body of his friend. Killed by paranoa. Fendor had never experienced much hardship in his life but this, this hurt. Fendor burried his head in his hands, cursing the honorspren for killing his companion. He would find the enlightened, he would kill them for creating the paranoia that had killed TUN

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4 minutes ago, Kasimir said:

The two leading trains into the cycle close were Cryptics. In my view, it is likely that the Elims would, one way or another, have put in a kill on the Honorspren (henceforth HS.) A lot of this was going to be speculation but there's no need for that as I just got a PM from Devo that I was attacked and someone saved me. Probably another HS, but I respect that this might be indistinguishable from "they hit an Elim" to everyone.

While my read likely stems from me always just reading you village early on, I think that pointing this out is a village move and would rather not kill you for being saved. We can cross that bridge if we come to it but doing so now feels premature. I may always read you village early on, but I'm perfectly happy doing so :P.

Assuming you were protected and therefore village, and assuming that Hoid is village (which feels alright since he apparently just followed TUN), I'm left with... less than I thought I would have when I started typing this sentence. My PoE would be [Wizard/xino/Bookworm/Archer] which is more than half the remaining players. Idk which of those would attack Kas but maybe I shouldn't be clearing Kas so definitively. 

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On the assumption of a 1-1 Elim distro, the Elims don't know each other, so we have to be careful reading the votes. The Elims aren't likely to leave a significant footprint (sigh) due to lack of coordination. If we're looking at more exotic 2 Elims-1 Defector scenarios, then we might be able to glean something from the votes.

My current thoughts:

  • Leaning light V on Hoid (potentially, need to think this through) for interactions with TUN. It's possible E!Hoid found TUN a useful reason for votes, and solo Cryptic Elim Hoid would be just as lost, but...eh, I don't know. Don't really think so right now.
  • Xino's vote on TUN is weird to me. Why start out voting among the Cryptics, @xinoehp512? Can any other Cryptic shed light on whether there were strange doc interactions? Hoid, is TUN saying anything about that?
  • Archer's self-pres on TUN: ?
  • I'm leaning towards having to vote on Books or Wiz at the moment, which doesn't really make me feel all that comfortable about this situation because it feels too low info, but maybe that's a good place to start, IDK.
  • I currently have a weak Village read on Mat but that's honestly activity-based and I dislike activity clears so I'm going to have to come back and rethink this.
1 minute ago, Matrim's Dice said:

Assuming you were protected and therefore village, and assuming that Hoid is village (which feels alright since he apparently just followed TUN), I'm left with... less than I thought I would have when I started typing this sentence. My PoE would be [Wizard/xino/Bookworm/Archer] which is more than half the remaining players. Idk which of those would attack Kas but maybe I shouldn't be clearing Kas so definitively. 

Honestly, am happy to be lynched if necessary. I think I'm a goner this cycle anyway - due to the rules, the Elims would know I'm not an Elim, since they would otherwise be notified. What they have to ask is if I'm a protector who self-protected, and is pretending to be shocked Pikachu right now. If they think this is likely, then they will kill me since this is a guaranteed kill that will go through unless a roleblock gets lucky.

Other things that will probably affect their decision:

  • The likelihood they can ML me (or get me MLed in future cycles)
  • Whether I am likely to be problematic in future cycles (probably, since I'm either an 'only known HS' kill which implies the Cryptic Elim had the kill this cycle or a control kill, in which case I am a dead man walking either way you slice it.)

I'm going to say that Cryptics will likely request a HS suspect lynch out of fairness, and creating too large a gap does create a situation in which the Cryptics are locked out of winning, so would not be likely to go for that. Ultimately, we can win with the Cryptics but cannot with the Elims, so in my view, a HS-centric lynch may not be awful, and reasoning that the kill hit me and failed because I'm Evil is fair enough.

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im innocent of anything. I mostly was confused about my role/side.

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8 minutes ago, Kasimir said:

What they have to ask is if I'm a protector who self-protected, and is pretending to be shocked Pikachu right now. If they think this is likely, then they will kill me since this is a guaranteed kill that will go through unless a roleblock gets lucky.

Protector can't self protect as well as not being able to hit the same target twice, but yes :P.

I'll vote tomorrow, which is a deliberate choice knowing that I'll be gone until ~2 hours remaining. I want to reread (which, let's be honest, probably won't do much good) but more than that I want to see other votes first.

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5 minutes ago, Matrim's Dice said:

Protector can't self protect as well as not being able to hit the same target twice, but yes :P.

Spoiler

4402265_0.jpg

 

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The way I see it, we've just had two village flips, so there's a 1 in 3 chance of hitting an elim regardless of which team we target. But cryptos lack the votes in a head to head and insist on cannibalizing so might as well bite the bullet and hope to walk away with two intact. To me anyway it's a coinflip. 

I thought TUN was recognizable, so I'll reiterate my confusion about Mat's voting. 

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1 hour ago, Archer said:

I thought TUN was recognizable, so I'll reiterate my confusion about Mat's voting. 

Recognisable in what way?

Is there someone pretending/claiming to be Mat among the Cryptics?

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Ok I'm thinking straight now and I completely messed up. My thought process so far:
>TUN told the doc Mat was on our team and I didn't question it
>Figured he was quiet because we were locked out of the doc for a while due to a perms issue
>Saw that the top candidates were TUN, Mat, me. All teammates so it was a lose-lose
>Wanted to vote Mat on principle, talked myself out of it because my gut read him as village, despite things
>Sighed and voted TUN
...
>Turns out my other doc mate was Xino??? 

I'd like to call Hoid's EOD (last hour I'm guessing?) doc talk performative but idek. I'll note that Xino was on at EOD, which is an elim move. Hoid also claimed, quite hilariously, approximately "I'M YOUR TEAMMATE, FOR I'M AN HONORSPREN TRAITOR." Which I'm taking to mean Defector, which is a ridiculous lie for a solo first time elim to make. We were roleclaiming so that wasn't out of the blue really. They came on late in the round and made some very panicked statements and tried to work with TUN. 

So POE says Xino is our elim. And as the last remaining member of my faction, I'm pretty screwed.
Or did Devo give me a traitor or put both elims in one doc. I figure the odds of those cancel each other out so I'll ignore them as possibilities. 

Xino (Mat) 

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2 hours ago, Archer said:

Or did Devo give me a traitor or put both elims in one doc. I figure the odds of those cancel each other out so I'll ignore them as possibilities. 

I know in my doc there was a lot of discussion about potential distributions, and one of the favorite ones was two elims in one doc, a defector in the other. That distro still gives 3 villagers in each faction, but in a more interesting way than a 1-1 elim split would.

That potentially is helpful if we think that's what's happening, but I also can't tell what faction Hoid is in despite that I definitely should be able to with the information given.

The only thing I remember about xino is that I read his single post as village but I only read it one time. I find it interesting that he was so willing to vote within his faction though. 

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Posted (edited)

Sirak felt a little bad for the weeping Cryptic.

But only a little. He really didn't want to be here, either. He wanted to be in his Archives, damnit! Instead, someone'd tried to kill him which meant they were trying to sabotage the negotiations. And the Cryptics seemed a little confused - even for Cryptics! - about who was in their delegation, and Sirak didn't understand that at all. Didn't people just straightforwardly declare themselves these days?

Cryptics. Always good for thinking in loops and layers when you wanted straight lines.

Except that now, Angry'd thrown even more knots into the tangle, and Sirak wasn't sure they could cut through it all.

He slammed his book shut. The next time Lasting Integrity talked him into anything, Sirak would tell them where to stick their storming ultimatums.


Ok. So I think things are a bit more confused now. It's clear who the factions are or should be, so let's put all our cards on the table:

  • Cryptics: <Archer, TUN, xino, Hoid>, HS: <Kas, Mat, Wiz, Books>

    This is the best sense I can make of it, with what we know. The thing is that if Archer is truthful about Hoid's claim: can @xinoehp512 or @HOID WANTS INSTANT NOODLES weigh in on this? - we have a prima facie problem. This means our starting line-up is really something like this:

    Cryptics: <C1, C2, C3, HS5>, HS: <HS1, HS2, HS3, HS4>

    If we further suppose that one Cryptic and one HS is actually Evil, we get something like this: two Cryptics to four HS, even before lynching. Is this a reasonable number, given we know the wincon requires outnumbering or parity and the death of all Elims? I don't think so. Mat and I were talking about this possibility last cycle and our conclusion was that we're more likely to see two Elims in one doc to balance the numbers a bit more, so:

    Cryptics: <C1, C2, C3, HS5>, HS: <HS1, HS2, HS3, HS4>

     3 HS - 3 Cryptics in total. Happy if anyone can see some reason to think this line of reasoning is wrong, but if the Defector claim is true, it just penalises the Cryptics a bit too much in a 1-1 world, I think.
     
  • Unfortunately, I feel this picture is complicated by the fact that I subtly roleclaimed/hinted at my role in the doc C1 for reasons. It's tempting to think that a HS Elim is less likely to kill within the doc of that faction (since it narrows the PoE) and moreover, they should have had reason to believe I was not the best target. So this leans me just a little towards thinking the killer was a Cryptic.
     
  • We have received independent confirmation Hoid is in the Cryptic doc, but this is consistent with Hoid claiming to be a Defector. Hoid, if you are a Defector but are in the Cryptic doc, this means you win with us. I can't really help if you want to play with the Cryptics, but I just thought I'd clear it up that you don't count to their wincon but to ours, which is what Archer is saying here. Mat and I have considered the possibility of an Elim Defector since Elims can have roles but we feel it sort of doesn't make much sense. It doesn't mean there can't be one, but it seems like the Defector role would be null with an Elim. @Devotary of Spontaneity - would like to know how a Defector Elim would work, and whether a player can have the Defector role and another role as well. Finally, I'd like to ask if for an Emissary to have a PM with another player entails both of them must be Emissaries or just at least one of them.
     
  • I am confused why xino was willing to vote in doc off the bat, but also generally confused about why the roleclaiming fest @Archer mentioned happened, given that TUN was attracting suspicion for asking about roleclaims.
     
  • 3 hours ago, Archer said:

    Or did Devo give me a traitor or put both elims in one doc. I figure the odds of those cancel each other out so I'll ignore them as possibilities. 

    I suppose there's a Cryptic Defector world as well, which would return us to 1-1 for the sake of balance, but implies that you are the lone Cryptic in your doc just as I'd be the lone HS in mine.

Edited to add: But the lone HS world is weird because then our Cryptic Defector HS either misunderstood the rules, or decided to protect me anyway. I'm not really sure that makes sense.

Edited by Kasimir
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Archer, as another option for other people to bite on. I'm conflicted between xino/Archer and am kind of sheeping Kas' read (though I'm actually voting from it, whereas he is still undecided) but we thought it was weird that he cited his primary objective as exeing someone in the other doc, but voted me and Hoid first.

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9 hours ago, Kasimir said:

Xino's vote on TUN is weird to me. Why start out voting among the Cryptics, @xinoehp512? Can any other Cryptic shed light on whether there were strange doc interactions? Hoid, is TUN saying anything about that?

I, uh, thought TUN was an honorspren. :wacko: 

20 minutes ago, Kasimir said:

This is the best sense I can make of it, with what we know. The thing is that if Archer is truthful about Hoid's claim: can @xinoehp512 or @HOID WANTS INSTANT NOODLES weigh in on this? - we have a prima facie problem. This means our starting line-up is really something like this:

Hoid did in fact claim defector in our doc. I'm less confident than Archer that that makes him good, but not enough to vote him. I'm going to vote Bookworm, partially for self-pres, and also because their abstention from voting last round strikes me as suspicious. 

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To throw some of the doc discussion into the thread:

My issue with xino is I basically don't understand xino's willingness to place a stable vote on a doc mate from the start. (Ok look, I started typing this and got ninjaed by xino's post but whatever) It was informed by not liking TUN's position about roleclaiming:

16 hours ago, xinoehp512 said:

To me this reads like somebody who wants claims trying to elicit claims without appearing like they are for eliciting claims. Suspicious.
TUN.

And it just never seemed to move, despite @Archer noticing that xino was on at EoD. I think I've got more questions there, because if Archer is correct that the doc basically turned into a roleclaims fest, then why didn't xino retract from TUN? I feel like thinking that TUN's behaviour is claims fishing is certainly compatible enough with keeping your vote on TUN but I also feel like some of that impetus has to go away if everyone in your doc was claiming anyway. IDK. 

3 minutes ago, xinoehp512 said:

I, uh, thought TUN was an honorspren. :wacko: 

Can someone within the Cryptics doc comment about whether xino was disengaged enough for this to be plausible?

Issue with Archer is similar: that with Archer's explicit comments about looking for a vote target that satisfies the conditions of being HS and suspicious, and commenting that he thought both Mat and Hoid were Village, why vote them?

Within my own faction, the main issue we have right now is that I was protected, and whoever it was was likely either a HS or a Cryptic Defector. I am not too sure if an Elim would try protecting me - weird to WBG if you can't get much credit for it and need the kill. And for the purposes of Elim hunting, Cryptic Defector doesn't matter - what matters is the player is a Villager. This means I'm not really down for lynching in that pool right now. 

So, questions for @xinoehp512-

Are you implying you believe your doc has no Elims? And in C1, you were concerned about roleclaiming within the HS endangering protect roles or RB roles. We have confirmation of one protect role. (I grant you might think I am Evil and there is no protect role, but if this is true of your beliefs, then you should be voting me instead.) Yet you are currently willing to shoot there. What changed?

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54 minutes ago, Kasimir said:
  •  @Devotary of Spontaneity - would like to know how a Defector Elim would work, and whether a player can have the Defector role and another role as well. Finally, I'd like to ask if for an Emissary to have a PM with another player entails both of them must be Emissaries or just at least one of them.

An elim being a defector has no mechanical effect, it just means they get to be a defector.

Defectors can have another role, which is based on the doc they're in.

Every emissary has a PM with another emissary.

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5 minutes ago, Kasimir said:

what matters is the player is a Villager.

Urgh, got distracted and meant to qualify - likely a Villager. Paranoia brain says WBG is possible but I still don't see the pay-off for a WBG. But paranoia brain demands it be said, so it shall be said.

2 minutes ago, Devotary of Spontaneity said:

An elim being a defector has no mechanical effect, it just means they get to be a defector.

Just to confirm, this means their wincon is still the Elim wincon? There's no compound/disjunctive wincon?

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Just now, Kasimir said:

Just to confirm, this means their wincon is still the Elim wincon? There's no compound/disjunctive wincon?

An elim defector would win solely with the elims.

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Posted (edited)

TUN started by suggesting roleclaims. I replied with my own, Hoid eventually threw his in/ what he thought was a role. Is it an alignment? Anyway, could Mat claim to have protected Kas now? I'm banking on him being the only one with the foresight to have done that. Makes them both clears to me. If it was someone else, I'd love to hear that. 

I think the double defector thing just kills the point of the docs, so I like the idea of doubling up elims. Or just give my side some sweet roles, which they did. Remember TUN could redirect NKs off of himself. 

Don't have much time for long posts right now, but I'm in split the difference mode. It's either Xino-Wiz/Symph or Symph/Wiz. So, I guess I'll vote the overlap? Far as I can tell, e!Xino doesn't know who his elim teammate is, so no harm +1ing him. Symphony (xino)

Edit: it's not e-e emissary's right. If that's an option I'll switch to Wiz because my trust in Xino is low

Edited by Archer
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Posted (edited)

7 minutes ago, Archer said:

I think the double defector thing just kills the point of the docs, so I like the idea of doubling up elims. Or just give my side some sweet roles, which they did. Remember TUN could redirect NKs off of himself. 

But he could only direct them onto someone in the same faction doc, no? That's a bit of a double-edged sword because if you're wrong, you're killing a fellow docmate and potentially reducing your chances of victory as your side doesn't have protect roles either.

I'm still struggling to work this one out but I'm more keen on xino between xino and Archer for the moment. My reasoning really just boils down to Books being up for the filter kill/replacement on failing the check-in in one more cycle.

Edited to add:

7 minutes ago, Archer said:

Edit: it's not e-e emissary's right. If that's an option I'll switch to Wiz because my trust in Xino is low

Afaik e/e Emissaries are theoretically possible. What has your doc heard about Emissaries? Interested in why your trust in xino being low means voting Wiz.

Edited by Kasimir
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Posted (edited)

9 minutes ago, Kasimir said:

But he could only direct them onto someone in the same faction doc, no? That's a bit of a double-edged sword because if you're wrong, you're killing a fellow docmate and potentially reducing your chances of victory as your side doesn't have protect roles either.

I'm still struggling to work this one out but I'm more keen on xino between xino and Archer for the moment. My reasoning really just boils down to Books being up for the filter kill/replacement on failing the check-in in one more cycle.

Edited to add:

Afaik e/e Emissaries are theoretically possible. What has your doc heard about Emissaries? Interested in why your trust in xino being low means voting Wiz.

well either Xino is gambling and bussing someone who might be a teammate. Or I thought maybe they knew from an emissary PM. They haven't claimed their role yet so it's an option option. 

It's pinging me that Xino dismissed the possibility of me being evil as an option today - which hard commits them to the doubled up evil pair, but they didn't lay that out so I wonder if maybe they're 

Plus, *plot twist* I have that P role that lets you see who killed you, which I consider to be a power role. So I think TUN and I would have been balanced as a team just us. Don't murder me, elims.

when your only elim candidates are just low actives, that means your wrong so

xino (Symph)

Edit: "My reasoning really just boils down to Books being up for the filter kill/replacement on failing the check-in in one more cycle." wait not that's a terrible reason  >.> 

Edited by Archer
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