Break Tank 2.0: Such Delicious Lies

[HOID WANTS INSTANT NOODLES]

What language are you all speaking, I read the rules but still

[Archer]

I think the best play here is to maintain strict doc anonymity and hope the elims NK someone of the same faction as the exe target. That sets up a counflip exe to catch an elim, the result of which is either an elim down and a villager who will be left alone, or a guaranteed elim the next round, who will face down I think two villagers in the final round. But the other scenario is better because it's confirmed villager vs an elim versus
one unconfirmed villager. Two people sharing a doc vote each other, then it's on the last guy to guess correctly. Or leave it to the 50% chance. If we just want to brute force this small player count game, that's gonna be the play. This analysis ignores all of the roles and assumes one elim in each doc.

*rereads rules*

Darn. I think my working assumption is going to be that Defactors either don't exist, or Devo was a big softie and made one doc two elims and two defactors. 

The dead talking element is fun. I suggest we crowdsource some questions for the dead to answer. 

Hello, new people! Stop ninjaing me, Hoid

 

[Kasimir]

7 minutes ago, Archer said:

I think the best play here is to maintain strict doc anonymity and hope the elims NK someone of the same faction as the exe target. That sets up a counflip exe to catch an elim, the result of which is either an elim down and a villager who will be left alone, or a guaranteed elim the next round, who will face down I think two villagers in the final round. But the other scenario is better because it's confirmed villager vs an elim versus

Not following this reasoning. Disclaimer that I just took painkillers. Walk me through it?

7 minutes ago, Archer said:

Darn. I think my working assumption is going to be that Defactors either don't exist, or Devo was a big softie and made one doc two elims and two defactors. 

I feel like the set-up almost guarantees both docs are infiltrated due to the alternating kill but it's just as possible she set it up so the kill just stays with the Elims, I suppose.

8 minutes ago, Archer said:

The dead talking element is fun. I suggest we crowdsource some questions for the dead to answer. 

At the risk of being a pain, was just going to suggest people do what the Hoed did in Elantris - screech for dot, screeeeeech for dash, and go full-on Morse Code. IDK, @Devotary of Spontaneity, is that allowed?  

[Archer]

20 minutes ago, Kasimir said:

Not following this reasoning. Disclaimer that I just took painkillers. Walk me through it?

I feel like the set-up almost guarantees both docs are infiltrated due to the alternating kill but it's just as possible she set it up so the kill just stays with the Elims, I suppose.

At the risk of being a pain, was just going to suggest people do what the Hoed did in Elantris - screech for dot, screeeeeech for dash, and go full-on Morse Code. IDK, @Devotary of Spontaneity, is that allowed?  

smh stop trying to break the game, Kas

With va being village faction A, and vb being faction B: Let’s assume it’s 3va:1e+1e:3vb. No defectors. We exe a va, they NK a va. Now it’s 1va:1e+1e:3vb. At this point we mass claim identities to figure out who those last two in the va doc are. Now assuming there’s one elim in that pair, we exe one and hope it’s an evil doer.

If so, with a NK hitting vb, we get to 1va:1e:2vb. We exe exclusively from the vb doc, maybe resulting in 1va:1e (coinfliop for the win) or 1e:1vb (coinflip) or the win. Either way there’s 50% odds of an elim loss.

Or it goes 0va+1e+1e+2vb. Exe the elim for 1e:2vb. Again, 50% chance of an elim loss.

Where it gets tricky is village factions may lose from this. But my quick gaming this out seems promising if the elims indulge us with a pair of kills from the same doc.

[HOID WANTS INSTANT NOODLES]

I thought this was just like roleplay sanderson werewolf but somehow i understand none of what any of you just said

[Devotary of Spontaneity]

27 minutes ago, Kasimir said:

At the risk of being a pain, was just going to suggest people do what the Hoed did in Elantris - screech for dot, screeeeeech for dash, and go full-on Morse Code. IDK, @Devotary of Spontaneity, is that allowed?  

You're not supposed to use any outside sources to create or decipher codes, but any method of screech communication agreed on in a Deadeye PM is acceptable.

[The Unknown Ajah]

1 minute ago, Devotary of Spontaneity said:

You're not supposed to use any outside sources to create or decipher codes, but any method of screech communication agreed on in a Deadeye PM is acceptable.

So Morse code is a no-no, but number of es corresponding to place in the English alphabet is ok?

[Kasimir]

22 minutes ago, Archer said:

smh stop trying to break the game, Kas

smh says the guy trying to game this one. Besides, this didn't break LG12!

22 minutes ago, Archer said:

With va being village faction A, and vb being faction B: Let’s assume it’s 3va:1e+1e:3vb. No defectors. We exe a va, they NK a va. Now it’s 1va:1e+1e:3vb. At this point we mass claim identities to figure out who those last two in the va doc are. Now assuming there’s one elim in that pair, we exe one and hope it’s an evil doer.

If so, with a NK hitting vb, we get to 1va:1e:2vb. We exe exclusively from the vb doc, maybe resulting in 1va:1e (coinfliop for the win) or 1e:1vb (coinflip) or the win. Either way there’s 50% odds of an elim loss.

Okay, yeah. Without knowledge of doc identities, it's most likely a shot in the dark for them to try to avoid the double kill. But a bit benighted as my doc has sort of lost anonymity - nothing confirmed but people don't seem to be as good as hiding as they say they are, though maybe it's indicative of who the Elim among us could be.

What's the gameplan if they don't?

From my thoughts:

2va:1e + 1e:2vb

We could play this the same way, but I think we need to do some analysis as well. One thing on C1 with thin gruel for analysis, not sure about C2. Feels like they almost can't kill in the same faction as the lynched player and the best play for them at that juncture is to cut a deal with the survivor and hope the survivor isn't a Defector, since any surviving va/vb knows will effectively lose the game if vb [Edit: or va] isn't whittled, so has little incentive to comply with a ML on them. The counterpoint is that keeping Village factions in equilibrium means the Village can win together, and the Elims benefit from keeping us divided, so I wonder if they are really going to go with this. Obligatory squint at the faction asymmetry suggestion here, Archer, even if I like the plan (but have honestly never been one for prioritising faction wincons over Village wincon, RIP.)

I've re-read the rules and forgot the Elims do not in fact know who each other are (on the 1-1 supposition; imagine we could have a slightly bigger Elim population since there is no covert communication or identity knowledge across faction docs.) Suppose there's also the possibility where they accidentally NK each other, leading to a no kill.

I guess I'm just saying I don't see too big a problem with this play - I'm hesitant about distro assumptions but I think the neat thing about this plan is it currently feeds in to what we'll have to do anyway, then we can sort through the rest next cycle with hopefully a bit more information.

13 minutes ago, HOID WANTS INSTANT NOODLES said:

I thought this was just like roleplay sanderson werewolf but somehow i understand none of what any of you just said

It is. I'm just too tired for roleplay right now but some people do that.

Edited June 16, 2022 by Kasimir

[Mat]

21 minutes ago, HOID WANTS INSTANT NOODLES said:

I thought this was just like roleplay sanderson werewolf but somehow i understand none of what any of you just said

Yeah, that’s what it is. Archer and Kas’s number distro talk is whooshing over my head as well so don’t feel bad :P.

I’m just at elims=bad, other spren faction=slightly less bad, kill until we win. So :P.

I’d rather not set up any predetermined screeeech code, just as a general rule. Probably the best way is to just let the parties in question figure it out in the Deadeye PM itself.

[Devotary of Spontaneity]

22 minutes ago, The Unknown Novel said:

So Morse code is a no-no, but number of es corresponding to place in the English alphabet is ok?

Either would be fine if the two players in a deadeye PM can agree on that without outside help.

[Mat]

@Archer @Kasimir @The Unknown Novel @HOID WANTS INSTANT NOODLES 

How do we feel about a full blown contribution crusade today? :D.

[Archer]

1 hour ago, Kasimir said:

But a bit benighted as my doc has sort of lost anonymity - nothing confirmed but people don't seem to be as good as hiding as they say they are, though maybe it's indicative of who the Elim among us could be.

We could play this the same way, but I think we need to do some analysis as well. One thing on C1 with thin gruel for analysis, not sure about C2. Feels like they almost can't kill in the same faction as the lynched player and the best play for them at that juncture is to cut a deal with the survivor and hope the survivor isn't a Defector, since any surviving va/vb knows will effectively lose the game if vb [Edit: or va] isn't whittled, so has little incentive to comply with a ML on them. The counterpoint is that keeping Village factions in equilibrium means the Village can win together, and the Elims benefit from keeping us divided, so I wonder if they are really going to go with this. Obligatory squint at the faction asymmetry suggestion here, Archer, even if I like the plan (but have honestly never been one for prioritising faction wincons over Village wincon, RIP.)

I've re-read the rules and forgot the Elims do not in fact know who each other are (on the 1-1 supposition; imagine we could have a slightly bigger Elim population since there is no covert communication or identity knowledge across faction docs.) Suppose there's also the possibility where they accidentally NK each other, leading to a no kill.

well it was worth a shot

Valid risk but the elims can't easily negotiate with anyone. 

I think the risk of a PoE elim death is great enough that they'll try to avoid it. Your win probability tanks after losing half the elim team. 

I keep forgetting the elims are split. I won't believe there's three though, not with eight players. By the way, I forgot win is at parity, so some of the coinflip things are wrong in my previous analysis. 

1 hour ago, Matrim's Dice said:

Yeah, that’s what it is. Archer and Kas’s number distro talk is whooshing over my head as well so don’t feel bad :P.

I’m just at elims=bad, other spren faction=slightly less bad, kill until we win. So :P.

I’d rather not set up any predetermined screeeech code, just as a general rule. Probably the best way is to just let the parties in question figure it out in the Deadeye PM itself.

TL;DR for confused people, we're trying to analyze the rules to guess which distribution version the GM decided to run and how we might benefit from future kill possibilities. It's not necessary information. 

I like TUN's suggestion. It's effort prohibitive anyway, and we are trying to break the game. 

Mat, I got such strong elim signaling vibes from that. I'd be down to murder Xino though if nothing better comes up. Like killing you. :P.

(Hoid) Mat

[The Unknown Ajah]

What are everyone's thoughts on roleclaiming in the doc. I'm leaning against, but don't have any solid thoughts either way.

14 minutes ago, Matrim's Dice said:

@Archer @Kasimir @The Unknown Novel @HOID WANTS INSTANT NOODLES 

How do we feel about a full blown contribution crusade today? :D.

My vote was a joke, but I really don't like this.

[HOID WANTS INSTANT NOODLES]

wait what does having my name in green do

also contribution crusade before we know anything seems suspicious

Edited June 16, 2022 by HOID WANTS INSTANT NOODLES

[Mat]

30 minutes ago, Archer said:

Mat, I got such strong elim signaling vibes from that. I'd be down to murder Xino though if nothing better comes up. Like killing you. :P.

Ah yes, signaling with my teammates, while having no prior way to set up said signal, and therefore it being completely useless. I’m not even sure what you’re referring to there.

18 minutes ago, HOID WANTS INSTANT NOODLES said:

wait what does having my name in green do

also contribution crusade before we know anything seems suspicious

Unvote.

It is, and it’s a bad idea, so you passed the reaction test :P.

Kasimir

Edited June 16, 2022 by Matrim's Dice

[HOID WANTS INSTANT NOODLES]

ohhkay. I mean it still seems suspicios for ir suddenly to become a reaction test.

Sorry

Matrim's Dice

[xinoehp512]

Hmm... Buckets.

Good Bucket

Spoiler

Mat

Kas

Archer

Hoid

Bad Bucket

Spoiler

TUN

Wizard

Bookworm

 

11 minutes ago, HOID WANTS INSTANT NOODLES said:

wait what does having my name in gree do

It means that Archer is no longer voting for you.

VC

Mat (3): Archer, TUN, Hoid
Archer (1): Kas
TUN (1): Xino

7 minutes ago, The Unknown Novel said:

What are everyone's thoughts on roleclaiming in the doc. I'm leaning against, but don't have any solid thoughts either way.

The Honorspren doc should for sure not claim, since there are several roles in there the elims definitely want gone (Bodyguard, Joker). Cryptics less so, but providing cover for the Perspacious would be good.
To me this reads like somebody who wants claims trying to elicit claims without appearing like they are for eliciting claims. Suspicious.
TUN.

28 minutes ago, Archer said:

well it was worth a shot

Valid risk but the elims can't easily negotiate with anyone. 

I think the risk of a PoE elim death is great enough that they'll try to avoid it. Your win probability tanks after losing half the elim team. 

I keep forgetting the elims are split. I won't believe there's three though, not with eight players. By the way, I forgot win is at parity, so some of the coinflip things are wrong in my previous analysis. 

The coinflip thing is wrong in that a 2-villager death case, next cycle is LyLo. Even if an elim dies at that point, the remaining one is still only a cycle away from victory.

2 hours ago, Kasimir said:

Okay, yeah. Without knowledge of doc identities, it's most likely a shot in the dark for them to try to avoid the double kill. But a bit benighted as my doc has sort of lost anonymity - nothing confirmed but people don't seem to be as good as hiding as they say they are, though maybe it's indicative of who the Elim among us could be.

What's the gameplan if they don't?

From my thoughts:

2va:1e + 1e:2vb

We could play this the same way, but I think we need to do some analysis as well. One thing on C1 with thin gruel for analysis, not sure about C2. Feels like they almost can't kill in the same faction as the lynched player and the best play for them at that juncture is to cut a deal with the survivor and hope the survivor isn't a Defector, since any surviving va/vb knows will effectively lose the game if vb [Edit: or va] isn't whittled, so has little incentive to comply with a ML on them. The counterpoint is that keeping Village factions in equilibrium means the Village can win together, and the Elims benefit from keeping us divided, so I wonder if they are really going to go with this. Obligatory squint at the faction asymmetry suggestion here, Archer, even if I like the plan (but have honestly never been one for prioritising faction wincons over Village wincon, RIP.)

I've re-read the rules and forgot the Elims do not in fact know who each other are (on the 1-1 supposition; imagine we could have a slightly bigger Elim population since there is no covert communication or identity knowledge across faction docs.) Suppose there's also the possibility where they accidentally NK each other, leading to a no kill.

I guess I'm just saying I don't see too big a problem with this play - I'm hesitant about distro assumptions but I think the neat thing about this plan is it currently feeds in to what we'll have to do anyway, then we can sort through the rest next cycle with hopefully a bit more information.

It wouldn't be a smart idea to make a deal with an elim even if they are in your doc, right? Since you can't win with them. If they die, you'll be essentially confirmed good. Keeping them alive does nothing for you. Even attempting to target the other elim wouldn't help, since they need to die anyway before you the other faction can win. The only hope for someone in that situation would be that the elim team takes mercy on them and/or there's a defector on the other team.

I guess maybe if the elim threatened death unless you complied? But that seems like a risky strategy for the elims.

 

[HOID WANTS INSTANT NOODLES]

You know, I just feel bad voting somebody out without anything really to go off of 

Matrim's Dice

[Mat]

25 minutes ago, HOID WANTS INSTANT NOODLES said:

ohhkay. I mean it still seems suspicios for ir suddenly to become a reaction test.

Sorry

Matrim's Dice

That’s the thing about reaction tests— If you knew it was one beforehand it wouldn’t be a very effective one.

It was kind of a serious suggestion, but mostly not.

10 minutes ago, xinoehp512 said:

The Honorspren doc should for sure not claim, since there are several roles in there the elims definitely want gone (Bodyguard, Joker). Cryptics less so, but providing cover for the Perspacious would be good.

If Cryptics claim that just outs the Honorspren, so that isn’t really a good idea either. You touched on that I think though.

Agree on TUN

5 minutes ago, HOID WANTS INSTANT NOODLES said:

You know, I just feel bad voting somebody out without anything really to go off of 

Matrim's Dice

Not to dissuade your unvoting of me, but there won’t really be anything to go off of D1

Sheeping xino and voting TUN, also kinda self pres. Will reread later

[Archer]

1 hour ago, Matrim's Dice said:

@Archer @Kasimir @The Unknown Novel @HOID WANTS INSTANT NOODLES 

How do we feel about a full blown contribution crusade today? :D.

Woops quoted the wrong thing. Anyway, I meant signal as in establish a certain exe outcome so that the NK choice can be deliberated and submitted more in advance than it might otherwise be. Signal to consolidate the vote around an easy option. 

I can see that post (ha, did quote the right one) being a reaction test. Actually more like Mat kicking the beehive than laying a trap. Given how poorly they're pitching it, I don't think there was much forethought. I'll give him the usual pass for acting more proactively than an elim would want to be. 

Edit: *provocatively

So let's pursue the more cautious Kas (Mat) 

Edited June 16, 2022 by Archer

[Kasimir]

1 hour ago, Archer said:

Valid risk but the elims can't easily negotiate with anyone. 

Why not? In the toy scenario we're modelling, the lone survivor is in the faction doc with an Elim, and everyone else is dead. Deadeyes in that faction doc could complain about it to the other faction if they have a PM, but what's the incentive? Moreover, the lone survivor functionally has pretty much no chance of winning - you can help lynch the Elim and your faction still loses, because you need parity or to outnumber the other faction.

57 minutes ago, xinoehp512 said:

It wouldn't be a smart idea to make a deal with an elim even if they are in your doc, right? Since you can't win with them. If they die, you'll be essentially confirmed good. Keeping them alive does nothing for you. Even attempting to target the other elim wouldn't help, since they need to die anyway before you the other faction can win. The only hope for someone in that situation would be that the elim team takes mercy on them and/or there's a defector on the other team.

Sure, but you want to help them whittle down the other team, and you don't want to lose (and as the last survivor, your dying more or less guarantees your team loses unless the other team has a defector, which you can't reasonably assume) - that's a compatible short-term goal. I could ask you the same question: without a guarantee or a reasonably achievable parity win, if you are serious about playing to your win-con, how does this not involve screwing the other faction over?

I mean sure, we can MR7 this and go Village über alles, if we're clear that's playing partly against wincon. I just don't see a "welp, I guess I'll help kill the Elim since I don't think I can win here" to necessarily be the most pro-wincon mindset from our hypothetical lone survivor.

Personally, I think the survivor is better off trying to cut a deal with the other faction for a parity win but I think what I'm trying to say here is that I can see a reasonable case for the survivor deciding to not do that, which is not being modelled in Archer's plan.

1 hour ago, Archer said:

I think the risk of a PoE elim death is great enough that they'll try to avoid it. Your win probability tanks after losing half the elim team. 

I will be very honest that this is the main reason that while I'm suspicious of you for suggesting faction decimation (which feels more Elim to me, though I'm reconsidering this view), I also think that PoE elim death is potentially bad enough that your thoughts could be coming from a Village perspective. Feels like I'm just going to be splitting the difference and nulling you, honestly  

I'm happy with where my vote is. Haven't played E!TUN in quite a while so unsure if my sense that this is more TUN being TUN is reliable. Would like to hear from the more quiet new players who aren't Hoid as well.

[SymphonianBookworm]

Hi people-

I know. I’ve been very quiet. But I do exist

so, this is my first time playing such a game, and I’m kind of confused... but I’m very sorry I haven’t been active—I’ve been on a flight and have had to do other stuff. I’m kind of a hindrance because I can’t access google docs... :’)

Spoiler

Would someone mind explaining to me how this works?

 

[The Wandering Wizard]

Since this is day one and no one knows anything except wild accusations 

Archer

[Archer]

1 hour ago, Kasimir said:

Why not? In the toy scenario we're modelling, the lone survivor is in the faction doc with an Elim, and everyone else is dead. Deadeyes in that faction doc could complain about it to the other faction if they have a PM, but what's the incentive? Moreover, the lone survivor functionally has pretty much no chance of winning - you can help lynch the Elim and your faction still loses, because you need parity or to outnumber the other faction.

 

Thing is the survivor can only get one elim's support. They don't know who the other is, so even if they join forces, they might end up exing the second elim anyway. Depends if they hammer it right I guess. 

12 minutes ago, SymphonianBookworm said:

 

  Hide contents

Would someone mind explaining to me how this works?

 

You put people in a bad position when you ask that mid game because two players here (the evil eliminatiors) are incentized to respond in bad faith so you'll be less of a threat. Very generally, we're voting someone out of the game. Red means vote, green means unvote. Whoever collects the most votes will be removed. Meanwhile, the evil team is also planning on killing someone. So next round will have 6 players, then 4 etc. Some people have special actions they can use that are explained in their GM PM. You should submit your action by telling the GM what you want to do. You should then vote on who you find most suspicious. You're looking for the people who are trying to sabatoge the team into making bad execution choices. So look for illogical arguments and stuff you don't agree with and challenge people to defend their reasoning. Feel free to ask your GM PM for unbiased advice. 

My case for Kas boils down to his doc location is known so he's a lost cause anyway. :P. 

2 minutes ago, The Wandering Wizard said:

Since this is day one and no one knows anything except wild accusations 

Archer

Hi! What information do you feel you're missing? And is there a way to get it before the next round? 

Ignore this box:

1 minute ago, The Wandering Wizard said:

 

[Mat]

18 minutes ago, SymphonianBookworm said:

I’m kind of a hindrance because I can’t access google docs... :’)

Oh. Well. You kind of need to be able to do that xD Good news is that the running theory is 1 elim per elim doc so you’re not missing on evil communication if you’re evil :P. But Spren docs are useful.

Unless you mean that you just can’t access it at this present moment but can later. If that’s the case, ignore me

How this works? We try to find evil people and vote them out, meanwhile the evil people kill us one by one— we’re the uninformed majority, and they’re the informed minority. Usually. In this case they’re split, and so are we, but that’s the general rule. Sorry if that’s not what you were asking about.

Archer, I don’t think any elim would purposely sabotage advice for all the thread to see :P.