Long Game 86: A Stricken Match

[Mat]

I had a village (light village) read on Striker coming out of D1, tbf :P. But we don't talk about some other games. 

I think that point for v!xino doesn't mean all that much, honestly. Nothing about that interaction with xino/Stick specifically I find not e/e, I feel like Stick would have made a similar correction regardless of who you mixed up.

The question on whether your interaction with Stick is e/e right there, though, is a better one.

[---]

2 minutes ago, Matrim's Dice said:

The question on whether your interaction with Stick is e/e right there, though, is a better one.

Not really. It's not, and also pointless to bring up in a conversation with me unless you are going to expand on it/Look at it/Push me with it.

So you're saying- put yourself in her shoes and don't go "but I'm not her"

Just say you're an elim, and Xino is your partner. You've been trying to push TUN and no one really cares for it so you've given up and hopped on a vanity wagon. Suddenly Illwei posts something suspecting TUN for something TUN didn't do. You don't ignore it, you instead respond to it going "no, you're not suspecting TUN there, you're actually suspecting [my teammate] Xino.

And it's not like you were in thread before that, no. You were around about 8 hours earlier, and had just popped back in. Do you pop back in to correct a villager about a read that should be applied to your teammate? or do you just stay out of thread for a little bit longer?

[Mat]

I guess I don't see why Stick (or anyone) as elim would bother doing it if it's v/v, either, unless it was just a habitual response to seeing something incorrect which can happen regardless of anyone's alignment. I see what you mean, but I don't give it as much credit as you do.

Edited June 3, 2022 by Matrim's Dice

[Elandera]

Before I forget, JNV

[---]

Mat also notice that her comment about it being xino was in an edit. She first just commented "what" and could have even left it at that

So if it was an initial reaction, that's where that was.

She then decides to come up and clarify on the "what" that I should be looking at Xino rather than TUN for that.

It's not just a snap "you mean xino?"

It's something she had to consciously think about posting, because it was an edit.

EDIT:

1 minute ago, Elandera said:

Before I forget, JNV

any thoughts on any of my posts so far?

Edited June 3, 2022 by Illwei

[Mat]

Leaving it just at the "what" would make me real nervous as an elim though

Like if I post just that, now I need to go fill it in otherwise it's just an empty post

Idk, feel a little like I'm playing devil's advocate rn and I probably should go study for my last final exam of the year so

Edited June 3, 2022 by Matrim's Dice

[---]

1 minute ago, Matrim's Dice said:

Leaving it just at the "what" would make me real nervous as an elim though

Like if I post just that, now I need to go fill it in otherwise it's just an empty post

Idk, feel a little like I'm playing devil's advocate rn and I probably should go study for my last final exam of the year so

This is where you can say "I'm not Stick and therefore this doesn't apply to me" because she did initially hit send on the "What" post, which isn't what you would have done.

[Alvron]

2 hours ago, Archer said:

By the way, I think Striker was likely killed because they were voted on D1.

I really hope that wasn’t the case. The elims killing someone that had a vote on them is normally bad as it removes someone who players were already suspicious of. Better to let them live and try for a mis-exe next cycle.

[---]

15 minutes ago, Alvron said:

I really hope that wasn’t the case. The elims killing someone that had a vote on them is normally bad as it removes someone who players were already suspicious of. Better to let them live and try for a mis-exe next cycle.

Striker wasn't ever getting misexed, but I don't follow Archer's theory.

If Striker /was/ killed because they weren't able to get a misexe on him then that means Xino Elim Equity rises.

[Archer]

Darn, I read Illwei's post and thought it was very insightful and had some good clears and then I read Mat's post and got whiplash. I agree with:
-Steel is village for that one post
-The Stick didn't need to correct the Xino mixup =v!Xino. I'm less confident in it than Illwei is, but it tracks
-Striker may have been killed so the elims can seize control of the Synod

Alvron, I'm guessing they're treating such people as more cleared than you normally would people who attracted votes. That C1 was full of very lukewarm votes, not serious suspicions, so followup pressure was less likely. 

I'm not a big fan of these naked votes on JNV. Speaking of Araris, when I said Araris seemed to be pushing the pace D1, I was thinking of similarities to LG82, which featured the following posts D1: Started with an RP paragraph leading to a stab vote. Pinged people to ask their thoughts. Does vote analysis. Pings people again.  Early D1 this game, I got similar vibes, although my reread indicates it's not as aggressive as LG82 was. Less pinging, more quoting and follow-ups. The parallel isn't actually as strong as I thought it was. 

Illwei's level of effort is making me suspicious of them, but the substance is clearing people more than it's laying suspicions, so I'll overlook my paranoia that the analysis is too good. (Illwei) 

Elandera

[---]

Archer's re-eval on araris looks good for him. Still a chance of them being e/e but that's nothing new.

Can you explain what you mean by "killed because voted on d1" Archer?

[Archer]

It's based on the theory that if the elims were in danger of being killed D1, they would have created certainty by making a multi-vote wagon. Instead, Stick voted alone on Mat. They seemed content to let the massive tie go through, implying they felt the odds of one of them dying were low enough that they were comfortable with the risk. 

If you speculate e!Araris, I think you have to guess that there was no elims up for exe D1 (except maybe for Ashbringer), because why would they fill instead of keeping their vote in place to solidify the exe? (Assuming Araris lost their vote to filling.) 

Now, they could have had say one elim up for exe, and they took the odds from say 1 in 3 of them dying to say 1 in 6 by adding side wagons. But if it had been multiple elims, I think the risk would have become too great, especially knowing that some of those votes were likely to disappear as people filled. A 2 in 6 chance could become 2 in 3, for example, which is an unnecessarily high level of risk. Especially when you have vote manip on your team, assuming Stick had charges or they have another one on the roster. 

It's possible they failed to anticipate the Ashbringer wagon failing, but I think it's more likely that it was a mostly village list of candidates. So it makes sense to kill them now that we've realized that. If Striker got identified in the doc, even better for them. 

[Mat]

Archer, just let me live with my v!Araris read in peace

I'm good with sparing Illwei today, and though I'm fine with Elandera as an option I'll vote xino for the sake of more than one train. Don't feel comfortable jumping on JNV rn. I would like to hear reasons from the people voting Elan, cause idk if I could come up with anything substantial at this point :P.

I'm less confident in xino after Illwei's points, tbh, which is weird because idk how I should consider an elim read talking me out of an elim read. I probably won't end up on xino but we'll see.

[Elandera]

When did my joints start creaking every time I moved? When did I start groaning every time I had to pick something off the floor? When did I get old? 

I use a crude pair of scissors to trim the dead leaves from a plant in the window of my home. I should honestly give up on the thing. I am no gardener. Plants die when they see me. Not like my sister, who grows the best garden in Tathingdwen.

My thoughts turn sour as I consider how long it's been since I've seen her. And with the Spiked in the area, it may be much, much longer before I'd see Era again. I wonder briefly if she can sense my longing. Twins were supposed to have that kind of connection, right? I'd never felt it, but Era said she could. 

Maybe when things settled, I'd take a trip to see her. I'd just need to get someone to watch my animals for a bit.

~~~~

Striker was an interesting kill choice. He was contributing pretty well, so it wasn't in the meta of killing the one who provides the least information. 

Most of my vote on JNV is for vibes, but now that I'm re-reading D1, I have more reason. Stick voted JNV in what feels very much like a teammate poke vote. A bit of a prompt to offer more reads, then a swap to Mat with no response from JNV and no reason behind the Mat vote (about five hours before the end of turn, and it was around the last time they posted). JNV also got defensive of Stick N1, but cast a shadow of doubt on Stick in the same post.

Illwei, to answer your question, I'm getting a village impression from your posts based on the good points and good analysis. Not sure I want to say you're village, though, because, well, I don't trust you.  

Other reads:

JNV = More elim than my earlier very mild elim statement

Matrim = Mild village

Ashbringer = Neutral (eying suspiciously)

Araris = Neutral, but maybe village

[Steeldancer]

Archer

Let me explain why.

As I said last cycle, I'm suspicious of people reading me village for my questioning the thread in regards to where the rules were. Here's my reasoning:

I'm looking for a quick answer to where the rules are, obviously. As a villager, I can ask thread or the GM. As an elim, I could also ask the doc. But I'm asking this question at two in the morning. Where am I most likely to find a quick answer? Thread, because it has the most people on it, and is more likely to have someone awake and looking at it. This is true whatever alignment I am. Therefore that action, is logically NAI. 

People sussing me for doing that is just weird, so I've ignored it. But trusting me for it? It's either a villager not looking at my attempts at ACTUAL contribution, or it's an elim trying to get on my good side. 

From a meta perspective, I also dislike the idea of trusting people for reading the rules. It should be something everyone does, no matter what alignment. However I look at it, Archers stance is problematic. Thus my vote. 

[xinoehp512]

Time to rebucket!

Good Bucket

Spoiler

Alvron

Elandera

Illwei

Ashbringer

Archer

Araris

 

Bad Bucket

Spoiler

JNV

Steel

Matrim

Alvron's getting promoted because of the kill on Stick. 

Steel's getting demoted since I'm getting kind of a strange vibe on re-read.

Quote

(Archer asking Alvron whether another person could have also submitted a kill on Stick)

Did you... not take an villager action last night?  That feels like an odd thing to say if you'd gotten a response from the GM about the result of a generic action... there's only one kill, so if Alv succeeded then by definition anyone else submitting a kill would have failed.

VC: (darn ninjas)

Elandera (2): Ash, Archer
Xino (1): Matrim's Dice
JNV (3): Araris, Elandera, Xino
Archer (1): Steel

Quote

(Elandera's point about Stick's vote on JNV being distancing)

Hmm. I can absolutely see that happening. This is... quite convincing. I think I will demote JNV to the Bad Bucket.

Also I just realized that Stick left her vote on Mat at the end of the cycle, which seems... odd, if he were her teammate. Sure, Ash had two votes, and it was still only one out of five without those. But Mat was one of those votes, so if he was storing away his vote as Stick's teammate, she would have known about it. And even a twenty percent chance is plenty risky. Then again, maybe Mat was vote manipped, or Stick thought moving off would raise too much suspicion. Even so, I'm feeling less sure about Mat's bucket now.

Edit: I have no idea what happened to this post, nor do I have any idea how to fix it. (Note to self: do not CP buckets)

Edited June 3, 2022 by xinoehp512

[Archer]

Mat, I voted Elandera because Araris and her voting JNV without much explanation seemed weird in light of them both being on my sus shortlist. 

By the way, I remembered that I was suspicious for Araris making an in case I die post last Night, since that's out of character for him. That wording especially, it feels performative. 

Steel, you didn't even make my first list of clears, so ready assured, you're near the bottom of my village tiers. :3 It's largely a matter of convenience, pending further information. Just to annoy you, I'm giving you village points now for arguing against village reading you. 

Xino, I was wondering if Alvron's tiny text was him setting himself up to fend off a counterclaim by saying its possible two people submitted the same kill. 

I see where people are coming from with the JNV thing but I had the opposite read of it. My gut is actually most interested in Araris still, so let's do that

(Elandera) Araris

[Mat]

I’m village reading Steel but not because of checking the thread for rules

If anything that xino post makes me more ok with my vote. I think a lot of that comes from his JNV vote, despite JNV being in my bottom four all these votes don’t sit easy with me and I don’t think xino’s remark about how convincing Elan’s point is feels real. I got a similar vibe to the paragraph talking about me- xino, did you ever explain why I’m in the bad bucket?

Archer continues to make good points against Araris. I still won’t vote there but I no longer can say I’d be surprised if he flips elim 

[---]

Do you guys notice Archer's vote swapping? You should. 

Not in the villagery "thoughts all over the place, my vote hops from one to another naturally as you can see through my thoughts and it all lines up"

In the way where his teammate JNV is up for the exe and he's desperately trying to get traction at all on a exe that isn't JNV.

Archer/JNV wagons should be fine for today. 

EDIT:

And despite my wariness off of the confidence from steel, it's not like it matches his elim game any more than his village. 

Really liking steels post on Archer. 

Edited June 4, 2022 by Illwei

[Elandera]

What Illwei said. That vote swap is odd. Archer has moved to a suspicious mild elim read, depending on JNV's alignment. Mildly better read on Xino, but has the same caveats as Archer's read.

[Mat]

I wasn’t going to mention how I strongly gut read that Archer post as village but maybe I should :P.

Edit: And I don’t agree with Steel’s reasoning, either

Edited June 4, 2022 by Matrim's Dice

[Steeldancer]

1 hour ago, Matrim's Dice said:

I wasn’t going to mention how I strongly gut read that Archer post as village but maybe I should :P.

Edit: And I don’t agree with Steel’s reasoning, either

why not? I feel like my reasoning is pretty straightforward. 
I find it hard to believe you could actually trust me for reading rules. That implies there's another reason theyre saying something like that. Elims would already know I'm innocent, so it's easy for them to "trust" me. Look at stick! Reading me as village when I'd hardly done anything at all. I'm getting the same vibes from Archer. 



This is such a weird argument. Normally I am vehemently like "I AM VILLAGE DANGIT" where as now I'm like "STOP READING ME AS VILLAGE DANGIT." But I guess I feel like this discussion about something NAI takes away from discussion from more important things, and more importantly to me, my actual attempts to be helpful. This is also why I'm not suspicious of people trusting me for reasons other than this stupid post. 

[Mat]

I don’t read you village for reading rules, never have. I argued that it was NAI on D1. I read you village for the time you’re taking to point out how weird it is for people to v read you (this isn’t sheeping Archer, I mentioned it D1), and for tone in general. All those things I’ve said before, I think.

Me not agreeing with your reasoning doesn’t equate to me not understanding it— it is straightforward, I just don’t think it’s elim indicative.

[JNV]

Things Stick said dfends Steledancer defends Steeldancer kill evil control defends against Matrims shoddy vote that I still hold was shoddy cause it was based on a complete misunderstanding of Sticks statement and even if you were coincidentally crrenct it didnt mean anything wobbles but lands village on Steel completely misinterprets my statement and accuses of noncomital which true but meanie corrects Illwei about xinoehp vs TUN votes Matrim for their steeldancer vote mentions Striker trust 

They apparently trusted Steeldancer and Striker and Striker ended up getting brutally murdered distrusted me and Matrim honestly there seems to be kinda a pattern here of trusts and distrusts for weird reasons like they trusted Steeldancer for the rules thing they voted me cause they misunderstood my post they voted Matrim for voting Steeldancer and heres the thing right I wouldnt think Stick was planning to die any time soon cause ya know full Feruchemist sorta thing not reallly the role you want to lose so what do they gain by randomly trusting Steeldancer not Steeldancers trust not anyone elses trust not necessarily Steeldancers death once they die cause again they probably werent planning on it so... if Steeldnacer is a villager why do that in what world does it make sense for Stick to do that as the powerhouse of evil who is almost certainly the most valuable evil they have why would Stick want to do something so suspicious well heres the thing 

The thing is Steeldancers vehement protest seems nice but if you think about it if your teammate suddnely read you as village for really really bad reasons you wouldnt want to lean into that would you cause then youd just both look bad I mean I like it I think it feels nice but then Steeldancers continued vehement protest seems morep erformative the longer it goes on especially how the Archer vote is phrased as something done out of a meta context and stopping 'problematic play' which just seems weird honestly and sorta just fixates on thsi concept of how it should be NAI well for thesep eople it isnt what then the argument seems too narrow in scope and doesnt even consider that maybe two evils wouldnt do the same weird thing to the same guy opinionwise and doesnt consider how Archers read has remained cause of Steeldancers vehement denial and it just feels like a bad argument honestly

I feel like my argument might be flawed and it might just be cause Im tired and cause I didnt like their Archer vote / argument but yeah that felt really wonky combine with the Stick stuff and it just feels hmm I should get some sleep 

Oh by the way about the Synod thing it requires two thoughts one Synod doc is compromised two Striker revealed identity in 72 hours I can believe in the first one but would Striker do that 

And Elandera what do you mean by temmate poke vote cause like it wasnt a poke vote Stick already voted I already showed up isnt a poke vote the one where you vote someone who hasnt shown up yet also when did I defend Stick N1 it was 'gah this person really wobbly I dont trust aah' about Stick emphasis on dont trust

xinoehp what happened to your spioler box formatting its all disjointed howd that happen

Ashbringer whyd you vote Elandera

Ok once I get some answers to those questions Ill vote Ill definitely be here tomorrow but right now Im sleepy and I really want to sleep before midnight today have fun with life try to argue against me explain your points in more detail convince me yadda yadda yadda good night

[---]

JNV