Long Game 86: A Stricken Match

[Steeldancer]

Well, that didn't work at all. 

I said if Archer flipped village, I'd claim, so here I am. 

I am indeed the veritable head band of the honorable Synod. I also am a Sentry. I started off with 2 charges, and thought it would be flipping awesome if I managed to pull off a win for the village with my 5 actions last night. 

Unfortunately, while I was successful in protecting Alvron (you're welcome) all my kill actions on Ashbringer (I was hedging my bets on Archer, figured if Archer flipped village either Xinoehp or Ashbringer would be the next best target) totally whiffed. Not sure if someone else managed to get one in, but given there were only 2 deaths, I'm going to assume whatever kill action was successful didn't manage to make it through the 50/50. Sadness. 

Anyway, since that didn't work, the next best bet is the exe. So, Ashbringer. 

[Mat]

And here I thought that Archer’s last post + the long rollover meant that he was elim and the game was over 

I tried to kill Steel last night. Got confirmation that my failure was due to the 50% chance from the low player count and not someone else getting the kill, which matches what Steel said.

Tempted to just vote Steel right now but Sentry is such an… odd thing to claim right here for e!Steel, especially with action results like that. The chance of him not getting the kill while submitting that many is low enough that idk why he’d claim it. Unless he just went with a teammate’s role to add credibility.

Not going to end on Ash, see my post from the Night turn. Probably will vote Steel later but I don’t want to snap vote

[Steeldancer]

8 minutes ago, Matrim's Dice said:

And here I thought that Archer’s last post + the long rollover meant that he was elim and the game was over 

I tried to kill Steel last night. Got confirmation that my failure was due to the 50% chance from the low player count and not someone else getting the kill, which matches what Steel said.

Tempted to just vote Steel right now but Sentry is such an… odd thing to claim right here for e!Steel, especially with action results like that. The chance of him not getting the kill while submitting that many is low enough that idk why he’d claim it. Unless he just went with a teammate’s role to add credibility.

Not going to end on Ash, see my post from the Night turn. Probably will vote Steel later but I don’t want to snap vote

It's almost like I'm not an elim. 

I've had this night 2 planned since I got my role, which sucks that the 50/50 hosed it or I would have put all 5 actions into a guaranteed kill (basically). 

On the upside, I trust you for trying to kill me, even if I don't agree that you should have tried. There are definitely better options. 

I've been a bit hedgy with my plays this game, but now that my role is essentially irrelevant for another 3 turns there no reason to do that anymore. My hit list goes like this:

Ashbringer (too dang quiet)

Xino (for being suspicious)

And then Elandera, because I'm not convinced she's cleared by a vote that could have been a misdirection. 

I will also note, I was not the one in the synod document to actually bring up the idea of killing archer. I was going to let the suspicion fester for a while tbh. But once someone else said "let's kill him" I was like, sure why not, it'll provide info, and cross off my main suspicion at the moment. So of the synod doc, that would leave me most suspicious of "The Unmasked One", whoever they are. 

And, that's about it.

[Elandera]

Something about Matrim seems off, but I was very wrong about Archer and they seemed to both fill the same category in reason for suspicion. I need to re-evaluate before I cast a vote there.

@Steeldancer Why do you think my vote could have been a misdirection?

My suspect pool from most likely to least likely is this:

1. Steeldancer
2. Matrim
3. Ashbringer
4. Xino

[Kasimir]

This is your current votecount (hint, it might be a good time to @ your GMs if your vote does not appear in this count!):

Quote

Ash (1): Steel

Oh.

That was...easy.

6 hours ago, Matrim's Dice said:

And here I thought that Archer’s last post + the long rollover meant that he was elim and the game was over 

No I was just sick and Devo and I were maining the write-ups this time as you do.

[Steeldancer]

10 hours ago, Elandera said:

Something about Matrim seems off, but I was very wrong about Archer and they seemed to both fill the same category in reason for suspicion. I need to re-evaluate before I cast a vote there.

@Steeldancer Why do you think my vote could have been a misdirection?

My suspect pool from most likely to least likely is this:

1. Steeldancer
2. Matrim
3. Ashbringer
4. Xino

It wasn't your vote, it was JNVs vote on you I'm not convinced by. I still feel like you could be an elim, but well you're third on my suspicion list so not right now. 

Would you like to elaborate on why I top your list? 

[Araris Valerian]

Well, elim!Steel would want to claim something to avoid action analysis catching him. Especially given that we have the option of using the Synod members as a POE. But I'm also confused, since Steel thinks his failure was due to the 50%, but Mat seems to be claiming that his action took the 50%. Both of those things can't be true, since only one kill exists. I will say that I also tried to send in a kill and failed. Alvron probably also went for the kill again, which means that village!Steel would have a decent chance of not actually getting the kill on his 4 actions.

[Steeldancer]

Just now, Araris Valerian said:

Well, elim!Steel would want to claim something to avoid action analysis catching him. Especially given that we have the option of using the Synod members as a POE. But I'm also confused, since Steel thinks his failure was due to the 50%, but Mat seems to be claiming that his action took the 50%. Both of those things can't be true, since only one kill exists. I will say that I also tried to send in a kill and failed. Alvron probably also went for the kill again, which means that village!Steel would have a decent chance of not actually getting the kill on his 4 actions.

Notably, I only used 3 actions on Ashbringer. I used 2 protects on Alvron because of the 50/50 on that action as well, to pretty much guarantee his survival. Only one of those actions worked, and it made it through the 50/50. 

And no, I never said it was due to the 50/50. I was explicitly informed it was due to my actions failing. I then assumed that whatever kill succeeded failed due to the 50/50, according to the clarifications I got from the GM last night when figuring out exactly what I was doing. 

[Mat]

Anyone who failed a kill can confirm that theirs did not make it to the 50/50 if they wish to. My single one was the one that did, which like, typical me luck to win the 1/6 or whatever and then lose the 1/2

[Araris Valerian]

@Fifth Scholar is the 50% chance of success the odds of the single chosen action, out of all submitted actions, to have an effect, or is it the odds of any given action submission to make it into the pool, of which one success is guaranteed to happen (assuming the pool isn't empty)?

Because I think Steel and I are interpreting this differently.

[Fifth Scholar]

42 minutes ago, Araris Valerian said:

@Fifth Scholar is the 50% chance of success the odds of the single chosen action, out of all submitted actions, to have an effect, or is it the odds of any given action submission to make it into the pool, of which one success is guaranteed to happen (assuming the pool isn't empty)?

Because I think Steel and I are interpreting this differently.

The former. All actions submitted are considered for the RNG on which kill goes through, and then the 50% chance is applied to the selected killer and his target.

[Araris Valerian]

1 hour ago, Steeldancer said:

Notably, I only used 3 actions on Ashbringer. I used 2 protects on Alvron because of the 50/50 on that action as well, to pretty much guarantee his survival. Only one of those actions worked, and it made it through the 50/50. 

So any number of protects can only give at best a 50% chance of actual protection. I do think the fact you've claimed to successfully protect Alvron is an indication that you are telling the truth about your role, since if you didn't successfully protect, someone could counterclaim you. However, as an elim, using lots of kill/protect actions makes a lot of sense, since if you successfully submit the protect, your actual kill target will be fairly certain to die. I think Steel makes sense as a last elim.

I'm a little surprised that, in this scenario, there wouldn't be an elim Brass ferring, but I guess Stick would have filled that role.

[Elandera]

Steel, it's not really anything concrete, but your first two posts this turn seem largely performative. I'm not going to vote yet, because I don't want this vote to be based on vague impressions. We're doing good so far, but I don't want to get too far down conspiracy rabbit holes when we have actual data to analyze.

[Mat]

23 minutes ago, Araris Valerian said:

I do think the fact you've claimed to successfully protect Alvron is an indication that you are telling the truth about your role

He claimed the same thing as JNV was though. So unless you think the elims had two Sentries, he wasn’t telling the truth if he’s elim.

[Araris Valerian]

45 minutes ago, Matrim's Dice said:

He claimed the same thing as JNV was though. So unless you think the elims had two Sentries, he wasn’t telling the truth if he’s elim.

Why would the elims having 2 Sentries not make sense? He could also be another full Feruchemist.

[Mat]

I guess it could, that just seems like… a lot of action potential. 5+5+2.

But I could see the benefits of a distro where a final elim can’t be caught by everyone else submitting a general action, and I understand how Kas and Fifth could see the benefits too if that’s what they went with

But really we aren’t going to get anywhere guessing at the distro

[Steeldancer]

Can't full feruchemists only have 2 charges? I couldn't have done what I did last night if I were a full feruchemists.

Also, @Elandera what do you mean by performative? I told Archer last night in the Synod doc that I'd claim if he flipped village. I fail to see why keeping my word on that would at all be "performative". I'm just laying all cards on the table, because keeping information at this point is going to hurt us more than sharing it. 

If you guys want to exe me, it's fine. Just, be aware that won't end the game. I'm still pretty sure we'll win, but I was kind of hoping to clutch the game here and close it out. That can't happen if I'm the exe. 

Also I'd appreciate if we could get claims from the remaining doc members. I shared my info, time for you guys to fess up as well. 

edit: also, from a distribution perspective, I honestly think it would make no sense for me to be a sentry or a full feruchemist if I were an elim,based on the roles revealed so far. 

Fifth mentioned to me in my PM that he didn't want any one side to have too much power over actions, which is why the rules are written the way they are. It makes no sense for the elims to have THAT many actions at their disposal, especially in such a small playgroup. It'd essentially allow for them to block out village action submissions. Just putting it out there

Edited June 6, 2022 by Steeldancer
Thoughts on role distribution.

[Araris Valerian]

1 hour ago, Steeldancer said:

Can't full feruchemists only have 2 charges? I couldn't have done what I did last night if I were a full feruchemists.

Also, @Elandera what do you mean by performative? I told Archer last night in the Synod doc that I'd claim if he flipped village. I fail to see why keeping my word on that would at all be "performative". I'm just laying all cards on the table, because keeping information at this point is going to hurt us more than sharing it. 

If you guys want to exe me, it's fine. Just, be aware that won't end the game. I'm still pretty sure we'll win, but I was kind of hoping to clutch the game here and close it out. That can't happen if I'm the exe. 

Also I'd appreciate if we could get claims from the remaining doc members. I shared my info, time for you guys to fess up as well. 

edit: also, from a distribution perspective, I honestly think it would make no sense for me to be a sentry or a full feruchemist if I were an elim,based on the roles revealed so far. 

Fifth mentioned to me in my PM that he didn't want any one side to have too much power over actions, which is why the rules are written the way they are. It makes no sense for the elims to have THAT many actions at their disposal, especially in such a small playgroup. It'd essentially allow for them to block out village action submissions. Just putting it out there

Full Feruchemists work the same as Ferrings, they just have all the metalminds.

And since Bronze requires forgoing a Night action to store it, each (elim) Bronze Ferring could get between 2-4 total extra night actions over the course of the game, which honestly isn't that strong. It certainly would not "allow for them to block out village action submissions".

[Elandera]

@Steeldancer Performative was perhaps not the right word. (I'm tired and on a 10 hour road trip by myself, so words are not my thing at the moment.) The claims just seemed excessive? Still not the right word. I know they were prompted in the Synod doc, and it makes sense to start laying all cards on the table, but I don't know. It just felt off.

I don't think you're the best exe option today, despite my suspicion (or maybe because it's only vague and insubstantial). Matrim makes a good point about two elims sentries. While it's not outside the troll potential of the GMs, I also don't think they'd have that on top of having a full feruchemist. Two full feruchemists, maybe. 

Once I'm done with my drive and have rested a bit, I should be able to actually contribute a vote this turn.

[Ashbringer]

Okay, I need to actually do something this turn. I've just been out of it.

Unfortunately that involves a lot of re-reading things. And lamenting. And apparently avoiding a lot of kill attempts. But tag me if you need me.

[Steeldancer]

2 hours ago, Araris Valerian said:

Full Feruchemists work the same as Ferrings, they just have all the metalminds.

And since Bronze requires forgoing a Night action to store it, each (elim) Bronze Ferring could get between 2-4 total extra night actions over the course of the game, which honestly isn't that strong. It certainly would not "allow for them to block out village action submissions".

I disagree with this opinion. While perhaps over the course of a game it might not be much, having 5 actions at one time is a massive advantage with the competitive nature of action submissions. They wouldn't be able to block out village submissions all the time, obviously, but on a key turn? With 2 sentries? That's ridiculously good. Heck, even just screwing up the protects would be enough to make sure the elim kill would get through. 

Now, to be fair, the point where it would be most powerful - when there are the fewest players- the rules nerf the crap out of having multiple actions. But if you're telling yourself that if I were JNVs teammate, that I wouldn't have come up with some way to abuse 10 actions on the same turn, then you're kidding yourself. 

[Mat]

I’ll take Archer’s advice and hope for protection later, but honestly I’d be just an ordinary kill for the last elim since it’ll take me at least until D7 to charge back up and surely the game will be over before then :P.

I’m an Archivist (surprise, I know xD) who started with two charges, single filled D1, and double filled D2. I am able to scan today (and will, one way or another) and am happy to scan Steel if we want to go for another option. If he comes back red, we can all submit kill actions N3 and hope to win the coin toss, but otherwise just win D4. If it’s green and we whiff today, I still think we’ll be set up pretty well.

Who’d be everyone’s second choice? For me it’s xino, Araris, or Elan. I’d need to reread to determine which; all three have points for and against so it determines how strong I find each of those. But I’d like other opinions.

An alternate option is to exe Steel and vote to decide who I scan, but that’s functionally the same thing and discussion for choosing a target is best done via exe, imo.

[Alvron]

41 minutes ago, Matrim's Dice said:

If he comes back red, we can all submit kill actions N3 and hope to win the coin toss

Not so.  With a kill today, it drops to 6 players which means generic protect, kill or roleblock actions drop to 0%

In the interest of knowing who can do what, I'm a Sparker with full charge.  So if needed I can vote on someone and learn who they targeted during N2.  This does mean that my vote will have to be on someone that wouldn't be exed but it does give us options.

[Mat]

Oh yeah. That’s fine, we can still win D4 though if that happens

[Steeldancer]

Seems like there's lots of potential information there. If I weren't one of the main exe targets, I'd advise exe one, have alvron vote another, and then have matrim target another, for pretty much a complete information dump there. 
I figure, the elims see me as an easy exe target. This actually increases my suspicion on Araris, as of everybody, he seems to be pushing the hardest on me.

 ALSO DANGIT WHERE ARE THE DOC CLAIMS. It makes me EXTREMELY suspicious that everyone has commented on thread, but the other surviving synod member hasn't said anything. Not even sure which one it is, because no one has said anything since archer died in there, and illwei dying too. 
Still, at least one more person who is in the document is alive, and they have not claimed. I find it suspicious, and also... well I'm pretty sure whoever is the last one is the elim. 

edit: now that I think about it, that's probably why they haven't claimed. 
edit 2: alright, rereading the doc, I'm pretty sure the maskless one was Illwei. Reads like Illwei, and illwei is dead. By process of elimination, that leaves the individual known as the Half-Masked one. 
Half Masked one has said like 3 things in the whole doc, and implies that they were doing something that prevented them from using the doc for a turn. That's all I've got. 
Illwei seemed to think Half-masked one was Elandera, but she was wrong about pretty much every single identity in the document, so I'm not sure how reliable that is. 

Edited June 7, 2022 by Steeldancer
info from the synod!