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Mid-Range Game 58 - To Kill a Skyeel


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19 minutes ago, Bort said:

That is fair. You did say "Was it you..."

Stick outright asked "Why did you..."

What was Devo's reply?

Stick asked the same of me, too. Devo was noncommital.

10 minutes ago, Illwei said:

Liranil/Stick not e/e

Because we both sent PMs to Bort asking about the vote manip? 

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Yeah no the 24 hr turns this game aren’t exceptionally compatible with my timezone in the slightest. I don’t think I was able to send anybody more than 2 PMs last turn :(. And yeah I outright accused both Liranil and Bort of the vote manip (and I think I brought it up w Devo but didn’t press it or ask direct questions) - I thought the use of the vote manip was an odd choice from either alignment because if it was done to protect an elim teammate, the votes were close enough for one of them to simply switch their votes without garnering much suspicion. And it being done by a villager seemed equally odd because it was D1 and it’s strange for a villager to form an opinion so strong on a player (Archer) that they’d risk outing their role to the elims in order to ensure Archer doesn’t get exe’d. The kill choice also makes little sense to me.

Edited by _Stick_
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1 minute ago, Illwei said:

technically 24 hour turns are compatible with everyone in the same way, but also same

Grr no cuz no one’s active when I’m awake so my only option is to resort to posting at times like now (2 am, for context). This doesn’t work well with PMs because the conversation gets cut short and roll over happens before I can reply

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Right now I could pass for australian probably with my sleep schedule smh you shoulda PMd me

I won't be here next cycle though probably, but like, unironically my time i have to be active is between 12am and 6am pst

Edited by Illwei
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This post feels incredibly forced to me. Like they're trying to plant a rehearsed idea for what happened. And I suspect that, especially with Archer's death, that whoever the vote manip was is an elim. It doesn't feel like Devo's style to vote manip and last minute vote shift, and I don't think Bort would have vote manipped with what little time he had once he got onto the game. Liranil.

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It's not me. I'm just a boring old vanilla villager, but I understand not taking me at my word. I usually don't. 

I was just rereading the rules and how the roles work. Maybe I'm misunderstanding things, but the rules make it sound like someone else's vote is automatically moved to the person the politician votes for, and they have the choice to pick a particular person. Idk I might be misinterpreting that.

Even if the manip does choose whether or not a vote is moved over

2 hours ago, Matrim's Dice said:

From the way that the game mechanics work, we know the manipper has to be you, Liranil, or Devo. I suspect multiple people fished around between those three (I PMd the other two; figured it probably wasn't you since you were inactive for most of the turn).

 

56 minutes ago, StrikerEZ said:

I don't think Bort would have vote manipped with what little time he had once he got onto the game.

I think the reasoning of "Bort was inactive for most of the cycle" is really flimsy. If you're a villager, and you have a power that doesn't have a limited number of uses, why not use it, if you're convinced the person you're voting for is the right choice. Bort didn't give much reason on their vote, but that doesn't mean they wouldn't use their power if they had it. The risk of late round manipping for Devo makes more sense as an argument.

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44 minutes ago, Liranil said:

Maybe I'm misunderstanding things, but the rules make it sound like someone else's vote is automatically moved to the person the politician votes for, and they have the choice to pick a particular person. Idk I might be misinterpreting that

From what I understand, it is automatic, but if the Politician doesn’t pick a target their own vote is doubled. A vote missing off of Archer signals that this wasn’t the case.

44 minutes ago, Liranil said:

I think the reasoning of "Bort was inactive for most of the cycle" is really flimsy. If you're a villager, and you have a power that doesn't have a limited number of uses, why not use it, if you're convinced the person you're voting for is the right choice. Bort didn't give much reason on their vote, but that doesn't mean they wouldn't use their power if they had it. The risk of late round manipping for Devo makes more sense as an argument.

That might be true, but it doesn’t mean Bort is more likely to me the manipper (from my PoV). To me, I see the active candidates as more likely than the mostly inactive one as a general rule; active players have more time to think about whether they’re going to use an action, more time to actually use that action, and more time to check if they have an action to use :P. 

I don’t necessarily think the Politician is evil either, a two vote swing is pretty powerful. Don’t feel like I’d suspect you more if I knew it was you, I don’t think I would- the Politician saved Archer, who was a villager, and killed xino, who was a villager, so there isn’t really a reason for an elim to bother with that, especially if Striker’s evil. You have to look at the manip considering that the manipper likely didn’t know about Devo’s vote unless they are Devo, unless they have incredibly fast reaction time, so I’d go as far as to say that e!Striker means v!Politician, full stop.

Who the manipper is isn’t something that needs to be out there, but it’s kind of helpful if it is. I think the elims might have targeted in that pool of players if they really wanted the manip gone but idk, Archer is just a weird kill.

Politician probably shouldn’t claim though. Standard thread claiming practices still apply- Rule of thumb: Don’t.

Still haven’t reread, sorry bout that. It’ll happen tonight.

Edit: I think I’m leaning Striker over Liranil though. Unsure.

Edited by Matrim's Dice
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1 hour ago, Matrim's Dice said:

From what I understand, it is automatic, but if the Politician doesn’t pick a target their own vote is doubled. A vote missing off of Archer signals that this wasn’t the case.

It is random, but they may choose a specific player. It was only doubled in an older version of the game. 

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2 hours ago, Liranil said:

If you're a villager, and you have a power that doesn't have a limited number of uses, why not use it,

I'm gonna by saying that this is not only flawed logic,  but especially with powers like vote manip it's almost dangerous to think like this

Just because you have a power doesn't mean you should always use it,  and sometimes using it can be worse.

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5 hours ago, Liranil said:

The manip wasn't me, but I know there's not really a way for me to prove that.

Why do you care about people thinking youre the vote manipulate person unless you fear death but then again we already have proof the evils dont care about killin the vote manipulate person so why do you care and why do you lampshade no proof I think teres definitely a wau you could prove that or at least prove youre evil with a vote manipulate person so yeah kinda hmm here speically considering how evils didnt go for one of the xinoehp voters either fear narrowing pool iplying at least one evil xinoehp voter but why vote inoehp honestly if counters were all village plus kill implies lack of care so no so the going theory here is the vote manipulate perosn is evil then you fear being landed as it so hmmmmmm

Some thoughts on D1 cause didnt really ahve time for thoughts last time 

  • Either STriker just doesnt remember me well or they think Im a lot smarter then I am so thanks or how dare depending 
    • Like if you think Im 'complex and smart' cool that but honestly no not really you can look but the coolest thing Ive ever done is a simulation of something that was probably irreleant in the first place 
    • And then I think there was a brief talk about me which wowza nice to be wanted but you were arguing past each other a bit Striker was saying I seemed less msart than usual which thanks but also excuse of finals recently the rest of them were saying I seemed to be talky talky like normal which true but not relevant to Strikers point 
  • Oh Stick by the way me saying a ton of group PMs was just me saying something I didnt really know to be true cause I was just in the one group before Archer got smacked by hand of God it was mostly exaggerating for dramatic effect but yeah probably should have phrased that better my bad I guess I was right about it but oh well
  • Also  um I think some people were village reading the newbies for floppy votes but they have no communics during hte day so vote would be untainted by experienced evil even if evil so no read on them for now and probblly no read for a bit 

Also the kill hm hm hm hm means something importatn but I dont know what obviously makes people on those look weird but they know that so they want that so maybe theyre the ones on me possibly hm or maybe they know that and blah blah blah paranoia spiral ya know

Wont be able to be on tomorrow so going for Liranil if you dont like it vote around me cause I just wont be here night night bye have fun take care 

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52 minutes ago, The Unknown Novel said:

It is random, but they may choose a specific player. It was only doubled in an older version of the game. 

Then you should fix your rule clarifications lol

Increases the chance of it being Bort imo

Agreed that Liranil’s fixation on proving she’s not the manip is strange

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Can I just double post? Probably. It's been almost an hour and this is all new stuff. Mods can merge this if that was a bad choice :P. New page, ah. Probably even more fine now.

1 hour ago, JNV said:

Like if you think Im 'complex and smart' cool that but honestly no not really you can look but the coolest thing Ive ever done is a simulation of something that was probably irreleant in the first place 

I thought it was pretty cool when you voted alongside me in the QF :ph34r:

Anyway

What I discovered from rereading was that it would have been a lot more useful if Archer had been evil, or if he was pushed later. Instead, he was village, and was always the main train with secondary ones coming and going, which is good for the village I guess because it means we didn't runaway misexe Archer D1 but also not great for info.

My main conclusion is that Striker and Liranil are not e/e, but I do think one of them is probably evil. I elim read both, meaning I probably got at least one of those wrong. JNV and Striker work as teammates (Striker voted JNV early, then switched to Archer for no apparent reason when nothing had really changed with the VC) And Liranil also potentially works with JNV since she did something similar at the end of the cycle with xino, but the connection is clearer with Striker imo.

I think the Striker train was pure. That just requires v!Illwei though so :P.

Striker case in a nutshell:

Spoiler
  • Vibes, which half the time isn't a valid reason when they're my vibes.
  • Bad reasons for most of his votes (Ex: JNV for grammar and not having smart things to say, Archer for village reading Archer too much)
  • While under slight fire, came into today pushing Liranil who he previously had no opinion on

Liranil case in a nutshell:

Spoiler
  • Vibes. Maybe more reliable than the Striker ones.
  • Strange voting pattern, sort of just jumping from target to target with no clear goal in mind. Suspicions don't really track.
  • Potentially over-focused on proving they're not the Politician when it's never been stated that being so is suspicious.

I'll vote Striker for now, I like that Liranil hasn't really pushed an exe despite being suspected whereas Striker jumped right in for Liranil. I think I have more to go off of on Striker whereas my case for Liranil is largely gut-based. I'm pleasantly surprised to note that my Striker/JNV theory holds up with the votes this cycle, though I dunno if the elims would be so bold as to block vote at the beginning. Maybe if they can't tell each other not to? I don't have a real read on JNV yet.

Illwei, Emulaton
Devo, Stick
ash, JNV
Bort
Liranil, Striker

Caveat here being that I don't think Striker and Liranil are both evil, and I don't think Bort is evil if Liranil is.

Edited by Matrim's Dice
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5 hours ago, The Unknown Novel said:

It is random, but they may choose a specific player. It was only doubled in an older version of the game. 

Oh. This changes things. I think the google doc containing the rules might not be updated on this ruling because I’m pretty sure it states that the Politician’s own vote will be doubled unless they target a player. I do not think the vote manip is odd anymore. 

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Not sure if I can get back on before the end of the cycle, so I wanted to get a vote in.

I like the logic for both Striker and Liranil, but my gut tells me Liranil over Striker.

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Okay, reread done. The NK choice was bugging me just a little bit because it helps the village avoid a likely misexe, but having read through D1 again, it might be because lots of people were village-reading Archer for the PM mess-up, and the new rule clarification regarding the vote manip makes it less likely for us to suspect Archer for that solely. This indicates to me that the elims were aware of this facet of the vote manip already - leaning slight village on Mat for this reason. Something else that stood out to me during the reread is this part of Archer's post:

Quote

I think I'd be okay with Striker dying because I think they might have tried to use my expressed suspicion of JNV to start a mix wagon on them then bailed too easily when it didn't work out, or Devo for that careful not making a reasonable assumption that I pointed out plus my confusion about their Mat vote.

This could possibly explain the NK, too (assuming E!Striker and/or E!JNV and/or E!Devo). While he voted for JNV in this post, Archer's vote landed on Striker in the end. It could be argued that this would be too blatant a kill for E!Striker or E!JNV to make, but it's a semi-plausible kill from E!Devo because it's not as obvious, comparatively. 

Village: Emu

Mild Village: Mat, ash's_eyes

Null: Liranil (although umm it's not really completely null. It's mild elim, but...even milder. Though I almost put them under 'Elim'.)

Mild Elim: illwei, Devo, Bort

Elim: Striker, JNV

 

Final D1 Vote Count (village reads in blue):

Quote

Archer: (3) Xinoehp512, EmulatonStromenkiin, JNV, StrikerEZ
Xinoehp512: (4) Liranil, Bort, Devotary of Spontaneity 
JNV: (2) ash's_eyes, _Stick_
StrikerEZ: (3) Archer, Matrim's Dice, Ilwei

I'm willing to bet there's at least one elim among the xino voters, and at least one among the Archer voters.

Random, but this part of Liranil's post from D1 indicates that Liranil/JNV probably aren't E/E.

Quote

Honestly, I'd be a little less sus of Xino of JNV flips e, because that seems like too obvious of a defense for an elim (maybe).

Though overall, that post reads a bit too hedgy to me. Too uncertain, tone-wise - but I cannot comment on whether that's in-line with their playstyle.

I'm happy throwing my vote onto the Striker train. 

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I think it's less important whether the politician is an elim and more relevant that if any of the Xino voters are elim, being suspected of being the elim politician is detrimental. Killing Archer makes it less likely that the politician is evil, but that also lowers suspicion on the two people who didn't move votes. If Liranil was an elim politician, she might want to take advantage of this, but she isn't by denying the role. Bort didn't seem to realize that he was a candidate for politician so if he is one, he's either an elim or didn't know his role worked automatically. Overall e!non-politician!Liranil and e!politician!Bort if either are elims. Elim!Bort who wants to maintain his cover shouldn't want Liranil dead. Bort/Striker is a possibility, but elim politician Bort doesn't remove a vote from Striker on purpose in that scenario and is more likely to know how his role works than village politician Bort.

Striker does seem to be jumping on votes with little reasoning, which leans elim. I don't see Striker with an elim politician who acted purposefully since removing a vote from Archer risks Striker's life. Striker being elim would make the Archer kill weird because that removes both D1 alternatives to Striker. I don't see that as being useful unless again it's to protect Liranil or Bort.

Liranil.

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I basically have to vote for Striker no matter what for self-preservation, but I do kind of like some the reasoning provided last round and this round by Mat. But I also tend to trust Mat for some reason even when he's elim, so there's that. :P

I need to go back and reread people's posts in detail but I probably won't have time. Here are some general thoughts that have been floating around in my head, take em or leave em:

  • Unless there were vote swaps that canceled each other out, we only have one politician, which is either me, Bort, or Devo. If it's a villager, it's not unlikely that the elims are going to try and get rid of the three of us, either through voting cycles or NKs. If one of us is an elim, though, that would change what they do. 
  • The move of a vote off of Archer and onto Xino is either completely random or chosen by the politician. If the politician is a villager, I'm leaning random, unless they were really convinced about Archer's innocence for some reason. A random vote swap, percentage-wise, would also likely pull a vote off of Archer, since almost half of the votes that weren't on Xino were on him. 
  • It seems most likely that Archer died from the NK, but it's also possible that the Detective chose them to be removed N0 and that the NK was blocked by one of the Field Exterminators. Idk why the Detective would pick them, but maybe they were suspicious about the group PMs. It's a possibility, but not a likely one. I just still think Archer was a weird pick for the NK.

Idk. It seems at this point that my exe would provide the most information, since most people seem to think that it's between me and Striker, or me and Bort, or whatever. I also don't know what the VC is yet but I'm tired. 

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2 minutes ago, Liranil said:

it's also possible that the Detective chose them to be removed N0 and that the NK was blocked by one of the Field Exterminators. Idk why the Detective would pick them, but maybe they were suspicious about the group PMs. It's a possibility, but not a likely one. I just still think Archer was a weird pick for the NK.

I don’t believe Field Exterminators offer protection from the NK though? From what I understand, they only protect against Skyeel attacks, no?

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Just now, _Stick_ said:

I don’t believe Field Exterminators offer protection from the NK though? From what I understand, they only protect against Skyeel attacks, no?

...

So I definitely thought the skyeel attacks were the NK. So that theory is wrong lol

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21 minutes ago, Liranil said:

But I also tend to trust Mat for some reason even when he's elim, so there's that. :P

Have you even played with e!me? xD

I think I’m now leaning to the Politician being v!Bort, but it certainly could be e!Bort. In both cases the manip would have been random. I’m sort of indifferent at the point between Liranil and Striker but I’ll stay where I am so that the wagons are closer, which is always useful.

I may be able to get on sometime in the next half hour but probably not, consider this my likely last post for the cycle.

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16 minutes ago, Matrim's Dice said:

Have you even played with e!me? xD

I thought so, but maybe I'm remembering something else. It's been a while since I've played.

Right now the VC is 

Striker (5): ash's_eyes, Liranil, Stick, Mat, Emulaton 

Liranil (4): Devo, Bort, JNV, Striker

Since I know that Devo or Bort is a politician, this is a tie in my eyes.

 

My susses, mostly gut reactions right now

Village: Mat, Stick (not sure why on either of these)

Neutral: Emulaton (hard to read since they haven't been super active, for good reasons), ash's eyes, Illwei

Elim: JNV (idk, some of their reactions just feel weird), Devo/Bort (I think one of the other, but not both), Striker,

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Okay, let's go. I've got this. I should be good at arguing against my death with how many times I've ended up on the chopping block between D1-D3 in most games :P

So, the JNV vote: that came from Archer talking to me in a 1-on-1 PM about the group PM he accidentally made and JNV responded in before we got slapped by the hand of god. I blatantly stole Archer's suspicion because I needed something to work off of and wanted to see what Archer would do about it.

The Archer vote: from what I remember, I didn't like Archer's reaction to everything and felt that I was getting e!Archer vibes from him. Like he was trying to be TWTBAW, which he often tries to do as an elim. Obviously, I was wrong. But I thought it made sense in the moment.

Liranil vote: I think that it's likely she's an elim, more because of her reaction to the pressure she's gotten today and less because I think she's an e!politician, like I originally posited. I also think that the elim team is Liranil, Stick, and ash's eyes. Betting it right now.

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