Long Game 84: A Sel United

[|TJ|]

Hi, just posting to say I haven't started reading the thread yet, but I'll try to catch up before EoD, which should be... around 5 hours from now, yeah?

[Experience]

12 hours ago, Illwei said:

Hey I've posted 3 times >:(

Sorry!!! 

And @Kasimir what Aman has said is how I remember it playing out in the doc. I think of those in our doc, if there was a mole I think it would probably be Archer or our inactive. But I need to read through the doc to see if there's a possible Archer/Aman teamup or if that seems very unlikely. 

[Mat]

7 hours ago, Kasimir said:

Knowing what I do of Aman's PM policy, I am not surprised.

I can second this, yeah.

Misc thoughts during a thread reskim:

• Village read of Exp is increasing. It seems like my theory about it being a reaction test is accurate, and Exp's own responses to the responses to his claim are village, imo
• Also village reading Kasimir but I legally have to say there's room for changing this later >>
• I don't like Aman immediately voting someone who voted him but eh
• I still think Thaid's change of playstyle is a bit suspicious but also a playstyle change for the better so /shrug
• Bort is who I'm getting the most bad vibes from, apart from maybe Striker (see below), mostly due to the post Kas and Araris outlined. Araris I'm more null to but leaning village just due to gut.
• I still think that both of Striker's votes are pretty opportunistic and I don't like that but I guess it depends on Devo's alignment. I don't think her response to Exp's claim makes sense as a reason to get three votes.
• Still frustratingly disconnected. C2 will be better.

[Amanuensis]

3 minutes ago, Matrim's Dice said:

• I don't like Aman immediately voting someone who voted him but eh

Technically I voted for three people, and just one of them voted me

[Archer]

New theory: there's no elim doc, and instead one of the empires is entirely made of elims. 

6 hours ago, Kasimir said:

I pay attention. Do you not?  

Knowing what I do of Aman's PM policy, I am not surprised. I'm just also going to say straight up that this has been my operative approach to my doc - I am not pro info-sharing within the doc and will heavily judge anyone who tries to roleclaim, but am acting on the operative assumption that everyone in there is a Villager. Rationally, this is very likely false, but I prefer wary cooperation/discussion, and trust myself to sufficiently revise my credences given time and data. I'm also motivated to avoid a second Urbain Inquisition within my Empire, due to how negative that experience was for Ren, Gamma, and myself.

We both know the answer to that already  The options were you're doc buddies (1 in 3 chance, so unlikely), you'd peeped their profile (which at the time I thought I'd checked you hadn't - but actually I think the reason you weren't there was because the Shard removed the Who's Viewed Your Profile thing?), or you had some kind of OOG interaction. I didn't remember them ever stating their gender, so it was worth checking to see if you'd come up with something week like you'd PMed them. 

Uhhh... is everyone else doing this? Because that's not a good approach when it's likely any given doc has an elim in it. It seems more logical to assume your doc does have an elim in it and use that as a shortlist to try and figure out who it is. Or if there's e-e interactions in there. I support sharing general strategy to make sure everyone's armed with the info they need to contribute effectively, but the default should be to over-conceal, not over-share. Aman seemed open to the idea of role claiming, saying basically that 'should we claim and the most powerfully endowed person dies, we'll know our doc is compromised, so we can ensure accountability'. Seemed overly confident that it wouldn't hurt.  

By the way, everyone has agreed to a party reveal, so I wonder if @JNV and @The Sibling would like to weigh in on this, as fellow Teos. (Full list: Aman, Archer, XP, JNV, The Sibling). Any other empires want to share? :3

4 hours ago, Amanuensis said:

[1] - "Here's my pitch." Why do you sound like a salesman and not a detective? 

[2]- In the doc, Archer tried raising this same "oversold belief in e!Thaid" thing. And right now I can't quote it directly, but this is a misrepresentation of how that conversation went down. 

[3]-  Do you think that I'm paired with e!Thaid too and I fourth-voted my own teammate for... what? The luls? 

[4]- "I also found them asking Mat for exactly five reasons was an odd request, and trying to double vote seemed weird too." Please tell me... how are either of these things elim indicative? "Odd" and "weird" do not = "elim" for one, and I will vehemently argue that neither of those things is "odd/weird" in the first place. It's very clear that I disagreed with Mat's initial take on keeping our Empires a secret, and that I wanted to figure out if his desire to do so was indicative of him being an elim. Asking for five bullet points (or less, or more, I gave him options) was meant to be a thought exercise, both to challenge Mat to think about the topic more deeply (if he succeeded, I might have been convinced to drop my current stance) as well as to see if he was approaching this game from a village or elim mindset.

[5] Secondly, Striker also did something I wanted to vote him for at the same time, and so I decided to take a page out of the QF59 playbook and "double vote" in order to make both Matrim and Striker feel pressure to answer. 

1. I want to kill you and no one else has expressed an interest in that yet, so I'm trying to persuade people to join me. :P. 

2. It felt like you were over-committing to your vote when you didn't need to, which is an elim tell. As for my under-committing to a read of Thaid, I was ready to sus them for a playstyle change but then got to thinking that one, criticizing positive playstyle changes isn't a great approach, and two, faced with similar pressure at a similar time in the cycle, I'm not sure how I'd have reacted differently. If I was an elim with a fear of attention, I might have tried some more aggressive victim claiming, but otherwise, I can see v!me basically just asking about it and moving on. So the net read is null, unfortunately.  

3. C1, attention kills. People may leave their arbitrary votes where they are if they don't come up with a better place for them, and at EoD, even if a wagon is a joke train, if it starts to collapse, folks enjoy propping them back up again because well, why is the wagon going away - seems sus. So you need to kill the wagon early. But arguing for Thaid's innocence will draw make his voters dig in their heels. So the best move is to add votes the wagon so people think the elims are piling onto it to secure a mix. Or they'll think it's big enough now that them leaving won't reduce its viability significantly, which then positions you to kill it later with your own vote removal. Once a wagon hits five votes people start thinking the odds are good an elim is on it, and back off. 

4. Asking for five seems like you're setting Mat up for failure - either he complies and you sus him for being too eager to please, or he declines, and you sus him for not having enough reasons to support his position. 

5. My biggest issue with the multiple voting thing is that if you lose internet connection and that's your final post, you leave the GM with unclear intentions to decipher. SE convention states that your final red text in a post will be used as your vote, but it makes life easier on them if you green text retract all reds that aren't going to be final. Maybe you've already cleared this up with Ashbringer, but if you haven't, I imagine they'd prefer you to use another color. Because you can't actually triple vote. From a player perspective, I find it odd. I could have said it was performative and disguises your intentions so you can slip some distancing in and move to an arbitrary player later, but it's more that my gut clocked it and sometimes that's enough to catch someone. 

I was going to go respond to some of the other exe options, but I'm happy with this vote and need to go eat now, so they're a problem for later

[Experience]

33 minutes ago, Matrim's Dice said:

Village read of Exp is increasing. It seems like my theory about it being a reaction test is accurate, and Exp's own responses to the responses to his claim are village, imo

I am offend!

After going through all the work of openly claiming my true identity, you just go and think I'm the complete opposite? :P. 

Something seems off with Archer/Aman interaction. And umm @Archer I thought we agreed to let everyone reveal themselves if they wanted to, not reveal them for them?

[Archer]

40 minutes ago, Experience said:

Something seems off with Archer/Aman interaction. And umm @Archer I thought we agreed to let everyone reveal themselves if they wanted to, not reveal them for them?

The chart said everyone was cool with it and their opinion is relevant now.

[|TJ|]

Okay, so I've caught up. 

Village - Striker (pure gut read from posts in p2 and p3), Aman (feels like MR56), Kasimir (effort might be fake-able but hyper-activity is very difficult to fake), JNV (very specific statement of ‘empire/empire connections might feel similar to evil/evil connections and that why is revealing empire-mates can be good’ feels coming from a village mindset)

Evil - Thaid (echoing other players, seems asking why x makes him suspicious and why y is voting for him, previously not caring if they were being voted out), Devotary (agreed, that vote is so uncharacteristic of Devo, but I'm confused because it's uncharacteristic of e!Devotary as well)

I was very mildly v-reading Archer prior to Aman's case, so wanna re-look into it. Unsure about Bort singling out Araris' post to put up suspicion on him like that. 

20 hours ago, Experience said:

And I'm not going to reveal yet, so feel free to not reveal ya'lls either  

Care to reveal yet? We're under 90 minutes till the cycle ends. 

[Kasimir]

3 hours ago, Amanuensis said:

All good! Sorry you're braindead from stress. I hope you had some fun at least!

I'm really more concerned about Wyrm and Orlok here - all I had to do after the AI murdered me within millimetres of my life was to (literally) hide behind Wyrm and send out raiding warbands of Huzsars to ML as many Villagers as I could to help my bros out and screw the AI's economy over  

Anyway I have slept on it and have returned to the thread with a fresher mind

3 hours ago, Amanuensis said:

Yeah TBH I'm not 100% sold on E!Archer from this. I feel like the smarter play for an elim would be to appease me (like Mat has done) and NK me instead. It's possible he's worried about me getting protection and being hard to kill, but idk. I feel like e!Archer would be safer just voting Devo or Bort (unless he's also partnered with one of them?). For that reason I could see v!Archer just being paranoid of me and not having good reasons to suspect me other than "he's in my doc and pro-cooperation, he must be evil."

I feel that if you're 100% sold on E!Archer (or E anyone, let's be honest) without a scan from a confirmed Good Seeker, you're doing this game wrong, especially D1. Which may be a point that is a bit too nitpicky, but it ties in with what I'm going to say to Mat later, and is just a statement of my philosophy towards this game - and Wilson's. (I don't think it's anything but a choice of phrase here, I just mention it because it's on my mind thanks to what I will say to Mat in a bit.) 

When I say V!Archer says/does weird things at times, the incidents I have in mind are V!Archer tunnelling on me because I got triggered by Striker being taken to be me in LG79 (which was a AN.) I'll be fair and say that this has issues to do with the fact I worry players who do impersonate me end up abusing or leaning unduly hard on the relationships I have built with other players over years. But that's a side-issue. Point is that V!Archer in that game started tunnelling harder on me because I was insisting I was Kas! Which really should not be particularly alignment-linked. Meanwhile, in AG8, he also noted in the dead doc that he'd be triggered by me insisting I was kel and sus me for it. So I don't know if throwing that out isn't necessarily just Archer Archering. That itself I don't take as a point against Archer.

...Is this gonna be a longpost. Dear God it's gonna be a longpost isn't it.

Quiet, chill, RPful game when >>

3 hours ago, Amanuensis said:

I honestly am uncertain about Devo / Bort and have decided to not get involved. Can't tell if you being tilted by them is an e!Kas or v!Kas thing, if I'm honest, so I'm not willing to follow along. If there's a mole in my doc and you're an elim, then you probably know this already since I've talked about it there, but if you're Village, then just know I'm 100% convinced you're Village yet  after QF59, I know you can blend very well and even clutch a win, so I hope you understand my wariness is a sign of respect <3

I'll be honest that I feel it's misplaced respect, as I feel that I can't Evil for nuts, but at the same time, I think residual wariness or willingness to revise is the most healthy attitude for a good Villager, so I'm in the odd position where I approve but am also :| about the description

With regard to Devo/Bort, I am planning to just lay my thoughts out in the thread because I'm more concerned with wanting to get people's takes. Would still appreciate if you're able to give me some of your thoughts. My take right now is that it's frustrating that I'm not getting the discussion that I was hoping for in my doc, and to rehash briefly, I've always treated PMs as the place to refine your raw thought processes and to take out the obvious non-starters and bad logic, and to incorporate new perspectives before feeding your thoughts to the thread in a more refined state, for discussion.

I'm going to say frankly right now that after hours of empty rambling into my Empire doc and getting ignored, I no longer trust myself on Devo and Bort and yet find myself unable to move on from them. My hopes of dumping this in the thread are not to push a train at this point but to get some sanity check. I am no longer able to tell if I'm tunnelling, or doing the Kas thing where I get tilted by someone's argumentative move (cf. Orlok in LG12, Creccio in LG15b) and go ham on them and refuse to stop until they are dead. As I have said in past games, I am better at controlling it these days, but it does happen. If Devo is really Village and I'm tunnelling hard, this is most relevant to me as I believe she's a lead train and my vote is currently on her.

3 hours ago, Amanuensis said:

That's fair! For that reason, I'm sure v!you can understand my unwillingness to write you off yet either but I'd never vote my ThreadPMBro D1 anyway, so if you're an elim, you are safe for now 

Again - I agree with that attitude, ThreadPMBro  And if I am Evil, do know that I will welcome my lynch as a release from suffering, so you won't need to feel any guilt whatsoever about going hard on me should you eventually decide you think I'm Evil! And if you are Evil...

Know that I'm coming for you, ThreadPMBro, as straight as an arrow >> Well, I mean I have to actually figure out that you're Evil first but

Know that I will set you free of your suffering. Bros don't let bros suffer.

2 hours ago, Experience said:

And @Kasimir what Aman has said is how I remember it playing out in the doc. I think of those in our doc, if there was a mole I think it would probably be Archer or our inactive. But I need to read through the doc to see if there's a possible Archer/Aman teamup or if that seems very unlikely. 

Thanks, Exp! I appreciate your confirming this chain of events.

In light of:

15 hours ago, Experience said:

• Archer: I voted on earlier, but he's up to null, leaning slight vil gut.

What are your views on Archer now? What motivates this shift?

1 hour ago, Matrim's Dice said:

• Also village reading Kasimir but I legally have to say there's room for changing this later >>

As I've said in my doc during a very long paragraph ranting on the Araris-Bort clash, a good Villager should always be revising your credences in accordance with incoming evidence. This is my fundamental SE philosophy and I will stand by this and die by this. If I am prone to over-revision, as I am aware of, so be it.  It should be a given that you are prepared to revise your beliefs! Otherwise, Beagles bite your face off >> (Orlok, don't @ me about normative/descriptive. I get it.)

Kas Thoughts, Just Kind of Thrown Here:

Spoiler

• My issue with the 'Devo's reaction is too pure' argument is multiple. First, what reaction were you expecting? The meta has been sufficiently tainted by enough players pulling off such stunts recently that I'm honestly doubtful that a clean response can be derived any longer.
   
• Second, Exp was practically radiating that this was bait. If your response is "I have reasons but won't give them ", you're telegraphing that this is bait. And given Exp's player profile, and the fact it was a RP claim, and Exp checked the thread repeatedly but did not engage with players brawling over his RP claim, I think—I would phrase it this way. I have been consistent in noting that I consider myself a mid-tier SE player at best. If a filthy casual like me can sense something is wrong, it is extremely odd to me that Devo didn't. I would absolutely assess Devo to be a player capable of considering and noting these things. Like...how many reactions did you get? Me, who got confused, but didn't vote, Illwei, who stated she was going to ignore it as a matter of policy, and Mat, who felt it was bait. Of all of us, Devo had the anomalous response, and that's somehow the pure response, in a set-up that was already compromised by how much FAFO energy Exp was radiating? I don't buy it. (I have thoughts about how to improve that sort of bait, but that's neither here nor there.)
   

• 18 hours ago, Devotary of Spontaneity said:

  More of a possibly forgetting the rules and the sense that the only way this could possibly be helpful as a village move is if it's brought up.

Third, I do disagree with this. Why would the only way that this is helpful as a Village move be bringing it up? This only makes sense if you are Village and imagine that Exp will read you as Village from that response. It's bait, after all - responses to it will in itself be telling, with or without your intervention. But then the mere fact that you have this layer of calculus there IMO already makes it questionable as a way of reading alignment off of it.

• This post from Bort doesn't get my hackles up as much, I have to admit. The previous post in my view was disingenuous: the core issue is that there is a difference between having to commit to going ham on inactives on C3, and doing poke votes on C1. I think it should attract some amount of side-eying when a player wants to commit to just getting posts in thread (even fluff, in Tani's case) rather than discussing suspicions or developing cases. I don't want to open the playstyle can of worms - I just want to note that this is a good way of appearing engaged without having to do anything too controversial and it's a good place for an Elim to be. (FYI, Sart essentially tried to do low activity/CC votes in LG82 as an Elim!) I further note that Bort felt no pressure whatsoever to encourage activity in QF59 (where he developed his own suspicions), and poke voted in LG83, where he was Evil. And since he's now dead in MR57, I feel no guilt whatsoever about pointing out he also poke voted in MR57, where he was Evil. He did swap to Thaid later, but this was on direct solicitation, so I'm not going to count it. 
   
• Again, I'm happy to acknowledge I could be tunnelling, but my point is that it feels like Bort wanted a safe way to engage with the game, and the feel of his defense, to me, is like how he defended himself against suspicion in MR57 C3. Ultimately, I'm not going to say I'm dead sold on E!Bort and freely acknowledge I could be wrong, but this is what I'm repeatedly going back to at this point.

The Aman-Archer clash is worth a separate long(?)post in and of itself. I'm going to cut this one short and will get back to it the moment someone else posts.

[shadow1]

Hi everyone! Sorry I'm late, my sister was visiting and we had a verrrrry long to do list (including going to the top of the CN tower which I've been meaning to do for all of the two years I've lived in toronto and finally got around to it we also got helix piercings which is fun) I suspect this will be a long post, I will read the whole thread and post thoughts.

Rules thoughts

Starting with reading the rules. Seems fairly standard in setup but looking at the PRs, I think the forger(s) should claim right away and not use their ability unless in a very narrow circumstance, such as at F3 if they know they are going to die. I think that role is incredibly anti-town as a general rule and they should be held accountable if they use it. Other than that I do not think anything should be claimed until it becomes relevant.

Revealing empires thoughts

WRT discussion on page 2 about whether revealing empires is valuable: from my experience, people trying to catch 'slips' of people knowing too much is just as often a red herring as it really is meaningful. I don't think its valueless in theory, but also, I think any remotely competent scum can monitor their posts for that, just as they monitor not posting that they're scum in thread. Someone knowing about an empire could also be based on other things, like their impression of who seems to be in a doc or something. So I don't think it's a particularly probative line as opposed to just going directly for people knowing if they are scum or not or who their scumchums are - auxiliary things like that also can be a distraction for scum to waste time on. Not valueless, but generally low value in my mind.

On 2022-04-02 at 0:13 AM, Matrim's Dice said:

Obviously I don’t think anyone would slip on purpose, but I don’t see a ton of benefit in revealing when it feels like half the point of the docs is that they’re secret. imo the possibility that the elims will make a mistake outweighs the benefits from publicly revealing the docs but I seem to be the only one with that opinion so I could just be wrong :P.

I also am under the assumption that the docs were true RNGd and so I don’t think the elims are equally spread throughout them. I don’t think we can clear people based on being in an Empire with one or two elims.

I do think it helps us have a more complete understanding of the game, and avoids people wondering 'how did you know that extra information' when there's probably quite a good reason in many instances. It's the fact that it's a distraction and makes it harder to understand the game state.

Distribution of scum between empires thoughts

It has to be completely random or the game is a bit broken. For example, if we get three scum flips in one chat, we could then clear or strongly townread the fourth player of it? That would seem to be inserting an unearned faction cop element into the game. I don't know why we would think we would get this boon and I am very wary of reasoning like that, as intuitive as it may be to assume a more spaced distribution. If I were the GM designing this there is no way I would give that extra tool to the town just for the sake of symmetry.

Player tone notes

These may be mediocre reads based more on who I agree with than who is scum. All the same, I'll just flag a few things. I don't like Matrim's dice's rather poorly explained support for wanting empires kept secret. I do like JCV actually running the math on distributions - it seems committed to town having correct data. I'm not sure what I think about aman (sorry aman, no pocket this time XD)

Tani's opening reads a bit off to me (if very cool of course). Illwei's confidence in posting things that I think are exuberant inferences also has small flags in my mind, but I have played with illwei and I do think that is consistent with their town game I just witnessed (and I think perhaps not even scummy in the first place, aside from it seeming insincere fmpov).

13 hours ago, Archer said:

-Skimmed the thread, but I just realized I might not be on tomorrow morning, so my voter's moving to Aman. Here's my pitch. In the Teo doc I felt they oversold their belief in e!Thaid, fourth vote can be e-e for the same reasons as a fifth, they suggested in our doc that we assume our doc has no moles and have been fairly pro information sharing. 

I also found them asking Mat for exactly five reasons was an odd request, and trying to double vote seemed weird too. 

Aman (Thaid lad) 

I don't think any of this ^^ is reasons that make aman more likely to be scum.

I like aman's long followup to this, though I'm not in that chat so I can't verify which characterization is correct. But without perfect knowledge of the details I do think this looks more like scum just putting out a weak vote with somewhat forced justification. That is how it reads at least here and I appreciate the counter narrative from aman.

People trying to read me already thoughts

20 hours ago, Bort said:

Shadow - Pokey poke! @shadow1

FWIW this wasn't going to do anything, I hadn't even tracked down the game thread until an hour ago XD

13 hours ago, Archer said:

-Unvoting Thaid because although they seemed a little more direct than usual in response to my made up pressure, they didn't panic or anything so I'm not getting a strong read on them either way. 

-Disagree with Mat that Striker isn't e-e with Thaid because extra unexplained votes can scare villagers off a train because they suspect elim bandwagoning. 

-I'd like to know how Kas learned Shadow's gender.

Just want to point out that I kind of hate how it is sus for someone not to assume male pronouns on an internet forum lol

But also yeah as it turns out there are multiple ways kas knows this, it is not particularly insightful as a line of inquiry. Sort of what I was saying earlier about tangential inferences of having too much information sometimes just posing distractions.

Outstanding weird things

On 2022-04-02 at 0:37 PM, Experience said:

I am here to ask all those that think we can combine these very different cultures filled with very, very different people to rethink. I, as Emissary of the Disruptors to this treaty, believe that we can work together for each of the Empires individual needs. There is no need to bow down to other Empires, but instead let us work on our own to all get that which our Empires want most.

Why post this?

On 2022-04-01 at 5:57 PM, Archer said:

So you don't think making your opening post be about RP is suspicious?

Am I missing the significance of why posting about RP would be sus? Just seems fun to me?

[Ashbringer]

8 hours ago, Amanuensis said:

Thaid   Matrim   Archer

... what is this

Edit: currently reading this as a vote on Archer, but... what is this

Edited April 3, 2022 by Ashbringer

[shadow1]

Archer

[Ashbringer]

My current vote count:

• Devotary of Spontaneity (3): StrikerEZ, Kasimir, Araris Valerian
• Archer (3): Amanuensis, shadow1, Experience
• Thaidakar the Ghostblood (2): The Baker, |TJ|
• Experience (2): Thaidakar the Ghostblood, Devotary of Spontaneity
• Bort (1): Matrim's Dice
• Amanuensis (1): Archer

 

Turn ends in just under an hour!

[Mat]

Thaid

[Kasimir]

18 minutes ago, Ashbringer said:

My current vote count:

• Devotary of Spontaneity (3): StrikerEZ, Kasimir, Araris Valerian
• Archer (3): Amanuensis, shadow1, Experience
• Thaidakar the Ghostblood (2): The Baker, |TJ|
• Experience (2): Thaidakar the Ghostblood, Devotary of Spontaneity
• Bort (1): Matrim's Dice
• Amanuensis (1): Archer

Turn ends in just under an hour!

So...I have that much time to decide if I'm tunnelling on Devo or not? >>

Edited to add: @Ashbringer, @Elbereth, can I get a post here so I can longpost and vote without doubleposting and making you grumpy?

Edited April 3, 2022 by Kasimir

[Elbereth]

13 minutes ago, Kasimir said:

Edited to add: @Ashbringer, @Elbereth, can I get a post here so I can longpost and vote without doubleposting and making you grumpy?

Fun fact of the day: if we ever found a moon that had something orbiting it, that would be called a moonmoon!  

[Devotary of Spontaneity]

Experience. 

Striker's not behaving like he did in recent elim games and also doesn't have any votes. I don't know much about Thaid. Not behaving the same as in other games sure. I'd like Archer to be evil. That would be convenient with the votes as they are. I do think Aman is more likely village than Archer since they're in contention, even though e!Aman would want to speak for his faction. Roleclaiming in docs isn't a good idea but withholding thoughts and suspicions for fear of alerting an elim doesn't help anything. I'm just going to vote Archer for today and maybe think later if I live.

[Archer]

I'll add that if XP were intentionally baiting reactions, their plan might have been foiled by the presence of an elim mole in the doc where they theoretically discussed their plan beforehand. So their execution wouldn't really matter because you're looking for elims that did a bad job of feigning surprise while also towing the line of being suspicious of the gambit a little bit. 

EDIT: execution as in how well they did pulled it off

55 minutes ago, shadow1 said:

 for all of the two years I've lived in toronto and finally got around to it

Seems fairly standard in setup but looking at the PRs, I think the forger(s) should claim right away and not use their ability unless in a very narrow circumstance, such as at F3 if they know they are going to die. I think that role is incredibly anti-town as a general rule and they should be held accountable if they use it. Other than that I do not think anything should be claimed until it becomes relevant.

Just want to point out that I kind of hate how it is sus for someone not to assume male pronouns on an internet forum lol

But also yeah as it turns out there are multiple ways kas knows this, it is not particularly insightful as a line of inquiry. Sort of what I was saying earlier about tangential inferences of having too much information sometimes just posing distractions.

Am I missing the significance of why posting about RP would be sus? Just seems fun to me?

*waves in Canadian*   HI!! If I live through today we need to talk about your hockey preferences. Unless you're a habs fan, in which case I don't wanna hear it :P. 

what if the elims kill the forgers when they claim? 

I'm pretty sure SE is over two-thirds male, depending on the game. Thank you for reducing the skew. :D. I'd argue it's worth the follow up in that case because due diligence 

Ignore everything I said about Thaid. RP is not suspicious and I was just making up a reason to try and make them think they'd slipped up so they'd go on the defensive.

9 minutes ago, Devotary of Spontaneity said:

Striker's not behaving like he did in recent elim games and also doesn't have any votes. I don't know much about Thaid. Not behaving the same as in other games sure. I'd like Archer to be evil. That would be convenient with the votes as they are. I do think Aman is more likely village than Archer since they're in contention, even though e!Aman would want to speak for his faction. Roleclaiming in docs isn't a good idea but withholding thoughts and suspicions for fear of alerting an elim doesn't help anything. I'm just going to vote Archer for today and maybe think later if I live.

 Well that puts me a tough position. Would you be willing to go back to XP if I do? I'm leaning towards Aman-XP based on their interactions so far. 

Edited April 3, 2022 by Archer

[Ashbringer]

• Archer (4): Amanuensis, shadow1, Experience, Devotary of Spontaneity
• Devotary of Spontaneity (3): StrikerEZ, Kasimir, Araris Valerian
• Thaidakar the Ghostblood (3): Matrim's Dice, The Baker, |TJ|
• Experience (1): Thaidakar the Ghostblood
• Amanuensis (1): Archer

 

7 minutes!

[Kasimir]

I'm worried that whether I go for Devo or Archer, it's a 'wth' vote either way.

I still think Devo's vote is an anomaly, and one I can't make sense of except from a rigid E!Devo case, given the poor set-up of Exp's bait, and the tainted state of the meta. I can't for the life of me see how V!Devo doesn't smell something odd when I did, and Mat did, and when Exp was radiating FAFO energy.

Ultimately, I think if it comes down to it, the one thing that might convince me to go for Archer is this one point:

9 hours ago, Amanuensis said:

- In the doc, Archer tried raising this same "oversold belief in e!Thaid" thing. And right now I can't quote it directly, but this is a misrepresentation of how that conversation went down. I told my doc something along the lines of "I wouldn't be surprised if Thaid has finally rolled elim for the first time. He seems unusually aware of people voting for him." I also said something like "I've been wrong about Thaid being an elim recently due to him being different between games, so I'm not reading into his alignment too much, but I added my vote to see if anyone would stack the votes even higher (testing for elim going for low-hanging fruit) or if anyone would try to save Thaid (testing for elim protecting a partner)." I also pointed out that at the time of this conversation, there were over 30 hours left in the turn and that I did not actually expect Thaid to remain the top wagon by the end of D1, and that I found it very interesting that Archer felt 4 votes on Thaid on the first couple pages meant his yeet was a foregone conclusion. This leads me to believe that A) Archer is E/E with Thaid or B: Archer knows Thaid is Village and is using my Thaid reaction test to make me look bad for some reason? There is a C possibility in which this is Village paranoia but... I really don't buy it at this juncture

I understand nulling Thaid, because that's kind of my reaction. I note that there is a difference, but I don't know if this is motivated by being Evil (he fits the player profile for someone who might do that as a first time Elim) or complaints about Thaid's play, which I have received as the GM of MR57, though I don't know if those complaints were forwarded to the IM, nor if the IM spoke to Thaid on it. Anyway, point is that it is plausible to me that this could be either, so I'm not sure I'm sold that this itself is a problem.

The doc issue and Exp's confirmation of the interaction is more worrisome for me because as a player who likes bait and Grand Plans and who did in fact set Thaid out as bait, why is Archer sussing Aman for doing exactly the same thing? I would think this should lead to Archer being more willing to understand Aman's position here, rather than sussing Aman for it, since that's exactly what Archer claims to be doing too.

There's a playstyle overlap here. I don't see why this is leading to grounds for suspicion, and that doesn't make sense to me.

8 minutes ago, Archer said:

 Well that puts me a tough position. Would you be willing to go back to XP if I do? I'm leaning towards Aman-XP based on their interactions so far. 

You know what? Archer without hesitation.

This is the best I can do, right here and right now.

Lesgo.

[shadow1]

2 minutes ago, Archer said:

I'll add that if XP were intentionally baiting reactions, their plan might have been foiled by the presence of an elim mole in the doc where they theoretically discussed their plan beforehand. So their execution wouldn't really matter because you're looking for elims that did a bad job of feigning surprise while also towing the line of being suspicious of the gambit a little bit. 

*waves in Canadian*   HI!! If I live through today we need to talk about your hockey preferences. Unless you're a habs fan, in which case I don't wanna hear it :P. 

what if the elims kill the forgers when they claim? 

I'm pretty sure SE is over two-thirds male, depending on the game. Thank you for reducing the skew. :D. I'd argue it's worth the follow up in that case because due diligence 

Ignore everything I said about Thaid. RP is not suspicious and I was just making up a reason to try and make them think they'd slipped up so they'd go on the defensive.

 Well that puts me a tough position. Would you be willing to go back to XP if I do? I'm leaning towards Aman-XP based on their interactions so far. 

Pains me to kill another canadian (sorry!) but I'm still voting you XD There's multiple things I flagged about your play that you didn't really address here either.

[Archer]

welp   Aman  thaid

[StrikerEZ]

Oh oops forgot about this. Knew I was forgetting something. Can’t even blame real life this time.

Anyway, not a fan of this Archer exe appearing out of nowhere. I like Archer’s posts. Thaidakar since a Devo exe isn’t happening.

[Mat]

1 hour ago, shadow1 said:

I do think it helps us have a more complete understanding of the game, and avoids people wondering 'how did you know that extra information' when there's probably quite a good reason in many instances. It's the fact that it's a distraction and makes it harder to understand the game state.

That makes sense, and is decently obvious in retrospect. I like the level of Empire knowledge that’s making its way into the thread, and suspect my controversial first opinion was a result of me putting approximately two seconds of thought into it, and then hanging onto it for too long. 

Looks like people are primarily voting Archer for his Aman case which is weird to me but it’s a voting strat that has worked in the past so whatever I guess. Don’t have time to check Exp’s reasoning and I know Devo’s is self pres.

[Elbereth]

Shush now  And please remember do not talk in your empire docs during rollover!