Long Game 84: A Sel United

[Mat]

2 minutes ago, |TJ| said:

This does not look e/e with Illwei, imo. (+ I want to say that the stuff about Tani hunting for the player typing stuff in wrong color and voting on them feels village)

Yeah, that and shadow’s push on her is what’s giving me pause. I didn’t want to just sweep on Baker though :P.

[Quivil]

Baker is my Rose Empire buddy and if you kill him I will be unhappy at you.

[Kasimir]

Current Reads:

Diplomats Par Excellence [=Moderate Village]

Spoiler

• Orlok

Just let me say it damnit.

• Mat

Lethal vote on Illwei, initiated Shadow train.

• Devo

Lethal vote on Shadow.

This is super short which probably doesn't reflect the conspiracy theories and tangents I've gone on in the Arelene doc, but the short of it is I'm satisfied with this tier, and not inclined to revise anytime soon.

Diplomats Maybe? [=Light Village]

Spoiler

• TJ*

On the one hand, TJ seems more disengaged from the game than usual and disinterested in solving. This to me has been a major E!TJ signal in previous games. However, TJ has also mentioned his reasons for this in the Arelene doc. I don't want to go into them now as I feel other players may feel unduly distracted by those reasons - but I trust TJ's sense of ethics, and since RL happens, I am inclined to not pressure him on this for now. I maintain the two derps seemed to come more naturally from a Villager (Orlok had the same flavour of confusion/missed Exp's claim) and while his restraint borders close to an apathy clear (which I also dislike), it is true E!TJ could have inflicted more pain on us given the new tie rules. (He was caught lurking EoD by Aman though, so that might have tipped the risk/reward ratio against Forging more deaths.)

I am always asterisking TJ because as much as my gut feels he's Village, I am aware I powerfully want him to be Village, and that means I don't trust myself not to clear him faster than I should.

• Sart

This is tentative, and I am open to revising it. I dislike apathy clears and I don't think there's really enough info to go off, seeing as JNV has claimed that Sart is a Dakhor. But I don't see E!Sibling making a Dakhor claim without being prepared to get something out of it (likely via team coaching?) and I feel like E!Sibling would have blown the kill earlier. Also a bit inclined to think that E!Sibling, if putting in the kill on a four man team, would have put in a post in the thread as well; on a five man team, implies a more catchable teammate since Sart will be putting out more content. Sibling had a vote that appeared to ease pressure on Illwei, so again, need to re-assess Sart in future in light of that.

Watching Your Career With Great Interest [=Null+]

Spoiler

• Tani

Shadow was pushing on her, but Tani also feels…like V!Tani. Which isn’t saying much but my gut just feels she’s probably Village. Invite anyone with E!Tani play history to comment. Not really feeling the Striker vote, but that's within V!Tani's parameters.

Negotiable [=Null]

Spoiler

• JNV

Engagement, with some sensible points e.g. D1 on Empire versus Elim connections. Part of me really wants to upgrade JNV to Null+, but part of me also doesn't feel comfortable doing that because it feels like an effort clear and I'm not sure I can see grounds for one right now. JNV is a player whose posts I need to re-read more carefully and try again. Probably when I can get some sleep.

• Bort

Still not comfortable with his D1, recognise I might have an adamantium-grade tunnel. Light effort clear where his doc mates have vouched for him and their reports at least sound like he's a Villager trying to solve, did put that second vote on Illwei, which looks a bit better than the first one. Probably re-assess later.

Papers, Please [=Null-]

Spoiler

• Baker

I'm disturbingly haunted by the point that Orlok made on Dingo in AG8, which is that there's a point where it's clear the player is capable of engagement but is making a deliberate and calculated choice not to. Without understanding the grounds of that vote on Illwei, it's difficult to understand if it was a distancing vote gone awry, or something else. Tani's report on what happened in their Empire doc isn't really helpful there (not your fault, Tani!) Baker's playstyle is fun, but I'm getting similar vibes to Aonar in MR1. This might run close to a policy lynch but some of it is a default 'this is what is left after I've excluded basically everyone else.' I dislike the D1 Thaid vote partly because it's low-hanging fruit (and indeed, that's where some of Baker's early reads seemed to go), but also because I feel that the Thaid vote timing was odd, coming right smack after Exp had made the Elim claim, and Devo and I had engaged on it. It's another 'It doesn't quite feel right' moment for me. That's about it.

P.S. Arelene doc is now so long it's crashing the Docs app on my tablet. @Orlok Tsubodai, @|TJ|, @shadow1 (despite your regrettable choice of alignment), WE. ARE. AWESOME >:)

[The Baker]

9 hours ago, Bort said:

Imagine my dismay when I wake up the next morning, go into the doc, only to find Devo and Mat have been discussing killing me

Baker

Spoiler

 

[Kasimir]

Just now, The Baker said:

  Reveal hidden contents

 

What is raising your hackles about this? What raised your hackles about Illwei? What informs any of your reads?

Please help us not ML you if you're Village. I get and respect that you've chosen this playstyle for yourself, but I can't read minds, and this is definitely more helpful than a naked read, but it's still not helping. Is there something you can do with bread to help clear things up a bit more?

[Quivil]

13 minutes ago, Kasimir said:

Invite anyone with E!Tani play history to comment.

I think this is probably V!Tani. When Tani's elim, she's less chill. Especially if she's trying to be V!read.

Storytime: Avalon game. We were in [redacted place] for [redacted time] with [redacted cousins] and we played Avalon and I was Evil - I was Mordred. There were about seven players iirc.

And it was super stressful and I was basically trying to make myself act chill the entire game and I don't know how well THAT worked and SOMEHOW I managed to not get seen as Evil and get put on the last mission and figure out Merlin. Also, the first round, there were two evils on the mission and I placed a Fail card and my sister didn't and we did that with no communication and it was kinda cool.

Also, I was way quieter the entire game, trying to not draw extra attention to myself and stuff.

I honestly have no clue how any of that worked. Also, I'm not sure if I should be telling you this story, because it might create an IKYK ending in a mislynch.

Just now, Kasimir said:

What is raising your hackles about this? What raised your hackles about Illwei? What informs any of your reads?

Please help us not ML you if you're Village. I get and respect that you've chosen this playstyle for yourself, but I can't read minds, and this is definitely more helpful than a naked read, but it's still not helping. Is there something you can do with bread to help clear things up a bit more?

@The Baker, I think they should know, and I'm scared they'll lynch you. Can I please tell them?

[Kasimir]

17 minutes ago, Tani said:

I honestly have no clue how any of that worked. Also, I'm not sure if I should be telling you this story, because it might create an IKYK ending in a mislynch.

I can honestly say you are not on the top of my list right now. You're Null+, and my gut genuinely thinks you're Village, so I'd be looking at Bort and JNV immediately if not Baker.

17 minutes ago, Tani said:

@The Baker, I think they should know, and I'm scared they'll lynch you. Can I please tell them?

Would be helpful because again, I'd prefer not to ML a Villager, but I also respect the difficulty here since that was me @ TJ and his Forger claim.

Edited to add:

@Tani - Gonna be honest, your reaction makes me think that Baker claimed Elantrian. But I don't see how that works, because for Baker to have scanned a NK target (which is basically the only way it'd make sense for him to be gung-ho on Bort), he'd have to have targeted Bort N3. But on N3, he was already strongly E reading Bort - multiple bads. Which seems to imply he scanned Bort earlier. But if he'd scanned Bort earlier, e.g. N2, why is he pushing me D3? Because I've said this in my doc, and I'm probably just going to say it now—I'm a Regular Diplomat, meaning I categorically do not have any actions, so anyone who claims to have scanned me putting in a NK should be flipped immediately after I flip, as per standard doctrine.

I've said it and I'll say it again: I am absolutely happy as long as Devo and Mat are alive (TJ to a lesser extent) to include myself in a tie if that's what it takes to get the Village to clear out some of my biggest suspects and if that's what it takes to make sense of things. I just don't find myself able to make sense of Baker's actions and a potential Elantrian claim in a context like this.

@Matrim's Dice, @Devotary of Spontaneity, @Bort - Is there anything you can say about potential Night actions that might clear this up? Elantrians track targets, not actions. If this is even Elantrian involvement, which I am honestly not sure about given our current information.

Edited April 11, 2022 by Kasimir

[Mat]

38 minutes ago, Kasimir said:

@Matrim's Dice, @Devotary of Spontaneity, @Bort - Is there anything you can say about potential Night actions that might clear this up? Elantrians track targets, not actions. If this is even Elantrian involvement, which I am honestly not sure about given our current information.

I will say that we are collectively aware of an Elantrian scan on Baker last night that came back with nothing.

That is all I will say about that

But I do think this clears Baker unless the elims started with 5, any way you slice it. Hence the Tani vote despite my PoE of yesterday being [Baker, Sibling], which now I think is v/v. I'm down to Tani and JNV with Bort as extra security and JNV gets more vibe reads from me, with the ratio we're at it likely doesn't matter anyway. Bort's had enough doc stuff that I'm fine putting him in third.

[Kasimir]

18 minutes ago, Matrim's Dice said:

I will say that we are collectively aware of an Elantrian scan on Baker last night that came back with nothing.

Hmm. But if that's the case, then Baker categorically cannot be an Elantrian. Which means his extreme Bort push doesn't actually make sense. Nothing else should give that amount of certainty on Bort.

Part of me wonders if it's an E!Elantrian (hi LG74 ), but if it's an E!Elantrian, we're looking at a two surviving teammate scenario (one to put in the kills, one to make the clearance scan) , which slightly tempts me to flip Baker anyway, if only to rule this out, but down that path is madness. Unless...

@The Baker - Can you comment, in Yes/No bread, whether you put in an action or not last Night? This would help confirm if the Elantrian scan was truthful.

I think we need to rule out a scenario in which there's V!Baker and an E!Elantrian lying about a scan in order to have put in the kill, at the very least. It would be a risky lie, but there's no harm in checking. Minimally, @Matrim's Dice - Can you give us a sense of who the other scans were and what the results were?

I still V read Tani and I am resistant to voting her based off what I have right now. I might prefer JNV if only because I feel like I'm effort clearing JNV at this point, while my gut is stronger on Tani. I think we need more clarity on this situation, and am not really willing to take Fjorden's scan claims on faith without further cross-checking.

Edited to add: @Tani - Think you should talk this through with Baker as well, but knowing sounds like it would help us more. Because if Baker is, as I'm guessing from your reaction, an Elantrian, then the scan from Fjorden doesn't really make any sense. Not with how gung-ho Baker is on Bort, and not with how Baker should in theory be sending in scans each Night. If we have a prima facie clash between what Baker is claiming (which is why I'm also asking Baker about his actions) and what Fjorden is claiming, then we know that something is not right and someone somewhere is lying. This gives us something to go on.

If Baker is indeed Elantrian, can you both talk it over, and if claiming, please give us an action history. @Matrim's Dice - Laid out the stakes here, would also appreciate an action history.

If both claims can be reconciled, I will likely vote JNV. Until then, I'm keeping my vote where it is because it doesn't feel right, and someone I think could be lying here.

Edited April 11, 2022 by Kasimir

[Mat]

15 minutes ago, Kasimir said:

Minimally, @Matrim's Dice - Can you give us a sense of who the other scans were and what the results were?

The other scans were the other two members in the doc besides the scanner, which both came up negative.

Tbh I didn’t get the vibe from Tani that Baker claimed Elantrian but it could be that. I sympathize with your views on Tani and JNV and might switch but I don’t… hate the idea of checking Baker, it just seems like a waste of a turn and imo they should be saved for last

[Devotary of Spontaneity]

19 minutes ago, Kasimir said:

Hmm. But if that's the case, then Baker categorically cannot be an Elantrian. Which means his extreme Bort push doesn't actually make sense. Nothing else should give that amount of certainty on Bort.

Part of me wonders if it's an E!Elantrian (hi LG74 ), but if it's an E!Elantrian, we're looking at a two surviving teammate scenario (one to put in the kills, one to make the clearance scan) , which slightly tempts me to flip Baker anyway, if only to rule this out, but down that path is madness. Unless...

I think we need to rule out a scenario in which there's V!Baker and an E!Elantrian lying about a scan in order to have put in the kill, at the very least. It would be a risky lie, but there's no harm in checking. Minimally, Can you give us a sense of who the other scans were and what the results were?

I still V read Tani and I am resistant to voting her based off what I have right now. I might prefer JNV if only because I feel like I'm effort clearing JNV at this point, while my gut is stronger on Tani. I think we need more clarity on this situation, and am not really willing to take Fjorden's scan claims on faith without further cross-checking.

It's not worth killing Baker today because they're only evil as part of a five person team. If the fourth elim dies and the game doesn't end I'd look at Baker again.

Neither of the other two scans produced useful results. I would not clear Bort from doc interactions, and will end up voting for one of [Tani, JNV, Bort] in no particular order.

[Kasimir]

7 minutes ago, Matrim's Dice said:

Tbh I didn’t get the vibe from Tani that Baker claimed Elantrian but it could be that. I sympathize with your views on Tani and JNV and might switch but I don’t… hate the idea of checking Baker, it just seems like a waste of a turn and imo they should be saved for last

Fair enough.

Tani seems to be implying some sort of roleclaim. But I just can't make sense of why Baker would be so gung-ho (I think five 'bread's?) on Bort without confidence from a scan. That's a lot more certainty than he's shown in his reads so far. 

Just on the off-chance we have some sort of AG7 Axl-Swan stand-off here, I do want to get our claims on the table and scrutinised for conflict. Obviously you guys can't and shouldn't confirm/deny who the scanner is, but I think that what Baker says might help your doc reach some conclusions anyway.

5 minutes ago, Devotary of Spontaneity said:

It's not worth killing Baker today because they're only evil as part of a five person team. If the fourth elim dies and the game doesn't end I'd look at Baker again.

Yeah, which is why I say I'm slightly tempted but resisting it. I still think that if Baker actually is tacitly claiming that Bort was scanned as targeting Orlok last Night, then we have a serious problem, depending on what the scanner and action claims within your doc are. Not going to go too much into it, except that I have a theory and my theory is that both are incompatible, meaning one of them is lying. This would I think push me towards Orlok-clearing Bort today.

So my main options right now would be JNV or Bort from the sound of it. Theoretically Tani as well but again...I just genuinely gut read her Village and don't feel as gung-ho on her as the other two.

Edited to add: I'm going to regret asking this, aren't I? >>

...Thoughts on pulling an AG7 / LG12 and just Orlok-clearing the entire pool of three at once?

@Matrim's Dice @Devotary of Spontaneity @|TJ| @Sart @JNV @The Baker @Tani @Bort

Edited April 11, 2022 by Kasimir

[Mat]

Just now, Kasimir said:

Tani seems to be implying some sort of roleclaim. But I just can't make sense of why Baker would be so gung-ho (I think five 'bread's?) on Bort without confidence from a scan. That's a lot more certainty than he's shown in his reads so far. 

I see what you mean with Tani, I actually had missed that earlier. And that makes sense. But I guess I can't fathom why it would have taken this long to make its way to the thread.

[Kasimir]

Just now, Matrim's Dice said:

I see what you mean with Tani, I actually had missed that earlier. And that makes sense. But I guess I can't fathom why it would have taken this long to make its way to the thread.

That's why this situation doesn't feel right to me...And that's why I want more clarity... :|

[The Baker]

39 minutes ago, Matrim's Dice said:

I will say that we are collectively aware of an Elantrian scan on Baker last night that came back with nothing.

That is all I will say about that

But I do think this clears Baker unless the elims started with 5, any way you slice it. Hence the Tani vote despite my PoE of yesterday being [Baker, Sibling], which now I think is v/v. I'm down to Tani and JNV with Bort as extra security and JNV gets more vibe reads from me, with the ratio we're at it likely doesn't matter anyway. Bort's had enough doc stuff that I'm fine putting him in third.

Spoiler

 

@The Baker

Spoiler

 

[Kasimir]

7 minutes ago, The Baker said:

  Hide contents

 

@The Baker

  Reveal hidden contents

 

Gott. Sei. Dank. Thank you for clearing this up.

So...why five 'breads' for Bort, and @Tani, what exactly is going on here?

Edited to add: Okay, have just realised that given the composition of Fjorden, basically the scans have to be truthful because at least one of <Mat, Devo> would have had to be scanned, and would have called out a lie. So there's that. I...blame this on the fact this is 5AM, even if the Tani situation is now still confusing me >>

Edited April 11, 2022 by Kasimir

[Mat]

10 minutes ago, Kasimir said:

Edited to add: Okay, have just realised that given the composition of Fjorden, basically the scans have to be truthful because at least one of <Mat, Devo> would have had to be scanned, and would have called out a lie. So there's that. I...blame this on the fact this is 5AM, even if the Tani situation is now still confusing me >>

You're assuming people have roles :P.

Edit: Or, I should say, the only claim we have is the Elantrian. I assume the others are roleless. Being intentionally vague here  

Edited April 11, 2022 by Matrim's Dice

[Kasimir]

2 minutes ago, Matrim's Dice said:

You're assuming people have roles :P.

That's the first half of it. But I also think a false Elantrian might not know enough about the distro early on to make that assumption and therefore confidently lie and say the player didn't put in an action. I certainly wasn't confident in the thought this was a high vanilla game until the D3 flips.

Edited to add: Didn't help that freakin' TJ tried to claim D1 in the doc...

Edited to add 2:

3 minutes ago, Matrim's Dice said:

Edit: Or, I should say, the only claim we have is the Elantrian. I assume the others are roleless. Being intentionally vague here  

How many new players do you think get fooled by "I promise I'm not Preservation, I'm just in contact with Preservation  "?

Edited April 11, 2022 by Kasimir

[Mat]

28 minutes ago, Kasimir said:

Edited to add: I'm going to regret asking this, aren't I? >>

...Thoughts on pulling an AG7 / LG12 and just Orlok-clearing the entire pool of three at once?

@Matrim's Dice @Devotary of Spontaneity @|TJ| @Sart @JNV @The Baker @Tani @Bort

Just noticed this now.

I... don't hate the idea :P. I feel like the elim there will just mess it up (or someone will) but I also kinda feel like it's cheating even though it technically isn't. Leaning no due to personal feelings even though it'd probably work lol

[Kasimir]

4 minutes ago, Matrim's Dice said:

I... don't hate the idea :P. I feel like the elim there will just mess it up (or someone will) but I also kinda feel like it's cheating even though it technically isn't. Leaning no due to personal feelings even though it'd probably work lol

You say this until we do this, they all flip Village, and it turns out it's LG83 Deepwolf TJ again >>

Edited to add: Or Sart I guess. Still not open to revising on you and Devo in such a scenario.

Edited to add 2: If it sweetens the deal, am happy to hop into the tie pool  

Edited April 11, 2022 by Kasimir

[Mat]

2 minutes ago, Kasimir said:

You say this until we do this, they all flip Village, and it turns out it's LG83 Deepwolf TJ again >>

At least then we'd save ourselves 2 cycles and two more deaths >>

I feel like if you refuse to revisit me or Devo based on our votes you also have to refuse to revisit restraining vote-manipper TJ  

[Kasimir]

7 minutes ago, Matrim's Dice said:

At least then we'd save ourselves 2 cycles and two more deaths >>

I feel like if you refuse to revisit me or Devo based on our votes you also have to refuse to revisit restraining vote-manipper TJ  

Not really. My concern with TJ is that Aman was watching N2 [Edited to add: D2 sorry] like a hawk IIRC and called TJ out for lurking EoD. It's not clear to me if that prevented TJ from vote manip, since that would absolutely get him called out the next day when there's extra deaths from Forgery. Again, I'm actually strongly getting his Elim tell from him. What's stopping me is two (well, maybe three things): A. he has IRL reasons for that we discussed in our doc and that I don't want to get into, but it's killed any appetite I have to push him on that basis, B. I will never not want my bro to be Village and that means I'm very aware of the fact I cut TJ more slack than I might another player and so have to be very cautious about how I respond to TJ, C. I feel restraint runs closer to an apathy clear—we can get a bit philosophical about whether the lack of an action is an action in and of itself, but I'd like to see more directly Village actions rather than inaction to feel confident and enter non-revision territory.

You're also missing that I did in fact have one to two pages of paranoia on you and Devo in the Arelene doc before finally working out with TJ that it makes no sense  So I have 'pre-revised', if anything, by considering scenarios/worlds in which you would be Evil and what it takes for them to obtain. (Maybe more than one or two; got a bit sporadic here and there.) 

11 minutes ago, Kasimir said:

Edited to add 2: If it sweetens the deal, am happy to hop into the tie pool  

To be clear, this follows from my AG7 views (cf. requesting that we ML me rather than have Vulture take the lynch for me, if Alb didn't hold fire on that crucial night.) If we Orlok-clear the pool of three, we are asking at least one Villager, more likely at least two, to accept a ML for the greater good of the Village. That's not a request I take lightly, and I think any Villager willing to ask for that sacrifice from another Villager (even if you don't know that they're Village) should be willing to make it as well.

Edited April 11, 2022 by Kasimir

[Quivil]

1 hour ago, Kasimir said:

@The Baker - Can you comment, in Yes/No bread, whether you put in an action or not last Night? This would help confirm if the Elantrian scan was truthful.

Last cycle I scanned Baker and he didn't act. I'm scanning Bort today. (I think this helps unless you somehow already had access to my scan info???)

1 hour ago, Kasimir said:

I think we need to rule out a scenario in which there's V!Baker and an E!Elantrian lying about a scan in order to have put in the kill, at the very least. It would be a risky lie, but there's no harm in checking. Minimally, @Matrim's Dice - Can you give us a sense of who the other scans were and what the results were?

If it were an E!antrian, why wouldn't they say Baker acted on the person who died, to try to get him MLd?

1 hour ago, Kasimir said:

I still V read Tani and I am resistant to voting her based off what I have right now. I might prefer JNV if only because I feel like I'm effort clearing JNV at this point, while my gut is stronger on Tani. I think we need more clarity on this situation, and am not really willing to take Fjorden's scan claims on faith without further cross-checking.

Wait - does this mean your gut is telling you to trust me or to not trust me?

1 hour ago, Kasimir said:

Edited to add: @Tani - Think you should talk this through with Baker as well, but knowing sounds like it would help us more. Because if Baker is, as I'm guessing from your reaction, an Elantrian, then the scan from Fjorden doesn't really make any sense. Not with how gung-ho Baker is on Bort, and not with how Baker should in theory be sending in scans each Night. If we have a prima facie clash between what Baker is claiming (which is why I'm also asking Baker about his actions) and what Fjorden is claiming, then we know that something is not right and someone somewhere is lying. This gives us something to go on.

If Baker is indeed Elantrian, can you both talk it over, and if claiming, please give us an action history. @Matrim's Dice - Laid out the stakes here, would also appreciate an action history.

If both claims can be reconciled, I will likely vote JNV. Until then, I'm keeping my vote where it is because it doesn't feel right, and someone I think could be lying here.

Baker said I can tell you if I want.

He's talking in our doc, and he talks quite a lot, and I think he's doing a lot to try to help. He thinks there's one in each doc. I'm not exactly sure, but willing to try.

Bort is the one we both agree is most suspicious in the one currently-untouched delegation.

1 hour ago, Kasimir said:

...Thoughts on pulling an AG7 / LG12 and just Orlok-clearing the entire pool of three at once?

@Matrim's Dice @Devotary of Spontaneity @|TJ| @Sart @JNV @The Baker @Tani @Bort

Baker is my Doc Buddy and if you kill him I will be Unhappy At You. >>

[Kasimir]

25 minutes ago, Tani said:

Baker is my Doc Buddy and if you kill him I will be Unhappy At You. >>

Baker is not in anyone's pool of three right now! You are! >>

25 minutes ago, Tani said:

Last cycle I scanned Baker and he didn't act. I'm scanning Bort today. (I think this helps unless you somehow already had access to my scan info???)

This makes sense - Fjorden claims that Baker didn't act either. If we're lynching Bort, then there's no reason to scan Bort. I'm starting to continue to believe I'd prefer JNV, but need to re-read. What is your scan history? Who did you scan on previous cycles?

25 minutes ago, Tani said:

If it were an E!antrian, why wouldn't they say Baker acted on the person who died, to try to get him MLd?

Because who gets lynched right after Baker dies and flips Village...? The utility of a fake claim from an E!Elantrian would be to hide the fact you actually put in a kill, because you then have a prima facie claim to having put in an action. (To be honest, if we're going down the fake claim route, may not even be an Elantrian - Village always tends to get very excited by shiny scanner claims.) The actions limit in this game is real, meaning the more we narrow down on our potential Elims (especially with one to two members left), the more anyone who provably didn't put in an action (via Elantrian scan) or provably put in an action can be ruled out as an Elim.

At this point though, since you and the Fjorden scanner both check out, I'm willing to discard that set of thoughts and consider that corroboration. In fact, I think that given that you and the Fjorden scanner both agree that Baker didn't take any action last Night, that's weak reason to exclude both you and the Fjorden scanner from the lynch pool today because that's weak reason to believe you both put in the actions you say you did, i.e. can't have put in the kill.

25 minutes ago, Tani said:

Wait - does this mean your gut is telling you to trust me or to not trust me?

>>

What's the point of me putting a reads list if you're not gonna read it smh >>

My gut is telling me you're Village, as I said there. I don't have a clear reason for it, but you're coming across powerfully as V!Tani. I don't have play history with E!Tani so could be mistaken but you just feel consistent with our Village games together, and that's the best I got, but it's enough that I would favour Orlok-clearing [=in-doc joke in Arelon, but basically exeing] JNV over you. My gut Village read of you just feels a bit stronger than my (admittedly) largely effort-clear of JNV. Could reconsider if Mat et al convince me, but given your Elantrian claim, feel that we're better off not going after you today anyway because feel we can potentially get mechanical clears.

25 minutes ago, Tani said:

Baker said I can tell you if I want.

He's talking in our doc, and he talks quite a lot, and I think he's doing a lot to try to help. He thinks there's one in each doc. I'm not exactly sure, but willing to try.

Good to know  

Alright. Let's try again.

Here's my current pool: <Sart, JNV, TJ, Bort.>

Mat and Devo are non-negotiably Village, in my eyes. I sure as hell didn't put in the kill, and wouldn't have killed Orlok, even as E!Kas, when he was strongly Village-reading me, and when my only reason for signing up/staying in this game was to play with Orlok. (I am happy to be voted on in a tie if required.) The fact that Tani and the Fjorden scanner both agree on scan results suggests to me they are likely truthful: I don't buy a three E!scenario, and it's unlikely they're both Evil together and chose to lie about the same player and happened to be correct. This means we have prima facie reason to believe Tani and the Fjorden scanner put in an action, so cannot have put in the NK.

The people in the pool I can't account for:

• TJ
• Sart — we can exclude Sart IMO because it'd be odd for Sibling to put in a NK and not post in the thread, and E!Sibling should've killed earlier. While I can see some ersatz worlds where this could happen (e.g. new player and last Elim standing Sibling panicking), I also note we could mechanically clear Sart if he's willing to put in the vig kill tonight on a target agreed on by the Village. Even if the Elims forgo one kill to pin the blame on Sart, this should slow down the death rate, which still forces them to make a choice. Then again, maybe we'd prefer to scan an Elim making a kill. Don't know, open for thoughts.
• Bort — I have thoughts on Bort, and suspect Fjorden does too.
• JNV

If I am correct in my thinking, the strictest pool is <Sart, JNV, TJ, Bort>.

Realistically, we're looking at: <TJ, JNV.>

I'm comfortable with voting JNV, but in the current state of my credences, I can't say that I think TJ is absolutely clean in my eyes, or he'd have moved up from Light Village. I really can't. The most I can say is: I'm not going to vote for him, if you want to vote for my bro, then right now, you're gonna have to do it without my help.

Edited to add: @Tani So can we also get clarity on whether Baker does talk in doc or does not? Because you and Striker initially insisted he didn't. I don't see this as being a crucial lie, but it's an inconsistency I'd like to see cleared up, especially with all the talk about colour and who the Araris impersonator was.

Edited April 11, 2022 by Kasimir

[Devotary of Spontaneity]

1 hour ago, Kasimir said:

Thoughts on pulling an AG7 / LG12 and just Orlok-clearing the entire pool of three at once

I'd like to have a 4:3:2 situation that only becomes a tie if TJ is a real Forger just so we don't lose a bunch of people if he's for some reason lying. I'm pretty sold on one elim within [Bort, Tani, JNV] since TJ knows he'll be exed next cycle if he's not a Forger. I'm not sure why you think Tani claiming to have scanned Baker helps clear the Fjorden Elantrian.