Long Game 84: A Sel United

[Amanuensis]

Amanuensis

GL

[JNV]

Ok so if Im understanding this rigth the case goes something like this

• Archer made a really really really really bad argument against amanuensis 
• Archer is a smarter player than that
• Therefore it must have been done on purpose

Of course oversimplyfing let me just try to understand

34 minutes ago, Orlok Tsubodai said:

Archer, apparently, misrepresented Aman’s comments from a public space, in an easily verifiable manner.

Just to clarify this more in depth cause I see Experience nad me just sorta said 'this isnt what happened' Amanuensis said something along the lines of thinking Thaidakrs hyper vote awareness = evil then said something about not being surprised if they were evil then the convo moved on we takled about various strategy things and coordination things within empire then Archer suddenly returned Amanuensis with something about how Amaneunsis was confident in the evilness of Thaidakar but then also said something about how elim team probably not planning on voting off Thaidakar and they had  this really really long argument in the doc that doesnt really read partners to me 

40 minutes ago, Orlok Tsubodai said:

Holding this in mind, consider Archer’s post. He, as an eliminator, makes a scattered series of weak or verifiably false arguments for e!Aman. To borrow a phrase from the Rationalist community, I noticed I was confused. It seems not just odd, but implausible that a rational e!Archer, trying to win, would vote for Aman for what were, as Aman himself describes “really bad reasons”.

Based on doc stuff at least Archer seemed to really believe the Thaidakar stuff they went all in on that in the doc they talked up a storm in the early bits of the cycle based on things mentioned in doc about 35 hours left in day turn

36 minutes ago, Kasimir said:

Look. This is itself odd. Two Elims down. We have a massive advantage. So why is he pushing for multiple deaths. We control the tempo here. Why the sudden impatience to clear the slate? What happened to “I don’t want to ML Villagers” or “I want to give Villagers the chance to prove themselves?” Why Mat, Devo, me? First, he says Mat is very likely cleared for the Illwei vote - then he wants Mat dead again. V!Devo performed well in the QF. Why is he specifically looking to take down loud, helpful Villagers (or players if Village.) How Village does that seem to you, when the Village actually has an advantage over the Elims right now? Wouldn’t that make a double bus trade worth it?

I mean I kinda feel like voting off multiple people at once though cutting time off does increase the village controlld kill to elim controlled kill ratio and is a bit more helpful in either or scenarios but hmm

39 minutes ago, Kasimir said:

Why the frick does Village Aman want Mat dead when he just said N2 he's pretty sure the voting cleared Mat? There is no sense to this.

Ok so this is a good point I can understand wantin trust reads dead though but also now I kinda feel like Im just defending Amanuensis without purpose let me go think about why I trust them

Ok so I gve it some thought and all the reasons why I trust them can be tied into the argument so it all comes down to whether or not Archer is a good evil palyer um could you link me some of their past evil games 

35 minutes ago, Kasimir said:

I'm getting LG83 vibes all over again. Archer's penultimate post theorising an Aman-Exp team and asking Devo to swap to Exp with him just seemed so kayana and so laughably bad. So why is Archer making such moves? Is he a moron, or is he not? And if he's not an idiot, then what's the calculus?

I dont think Ive played with Archer as evil before this game but from what I remember they sometimes do really weird things that seem kinda wonky but they believe in it for some reason and the entire argument is founded on 'Archer is smarter than this' and yeah I mean that was a really really weird move by Archer but I just dont relaly know at this poin these words are really prtety but I odnt want to just follow

33 minutes ago, shadow1 said:

• Aman's style of questioning here is consistent with a very insultive style for scum play. Asking people hypothetical questions and then quietly judging them on the answers is not transparent. I know it's a good scumstyle because I used to play like this to hide as scum, and Aman and I seem to have very similar playstyles so I don't think I'm projecting a lot to extend that inference. This is also different from the style I observed from them last game.

I was about to raise the point that they did this in MR57 then I remembered... hmm

18 minutes ago, Kasimir said:

Would he have calculated on remaining Village read, given my MR potentially re-igniting suspicions of him, given how he was committed to playing in it? Remember that he would have been juggling this with an Evil game in the form of MR57. And Aman is used to facing paranoia, particularly after a successful Evil game. And if you agree Archer isn't a moron, then what explanation do you have for Archer committing suicide-by-Aman?

In yoru wroldview how possible is it that Archer just sorta went tunnel vision on village Amanuensis for something they found suspicious  and didnt realize no one else found it ssupsicous cause there wasnt really a ton of doc activity to refute Archers points other than Amanuensis 

Like based on what you and Arelon knows I kinda feel ilke this is a really solid case but the doc stuff in Teod doesnt really sell it to me honestly that sorta live back and forth semes hard to fake

I dont really want Amanuensis dead but I dont know if I can think clearly on that matter is there a foundation for the case besides 'Archer isnt stupid' cause if there is Id be a lot more confident in it

[Kasimir]

1 minute ago, Matrim's Dice said:

What Striker said, essentially. I don’t think making a case against Aman should be defined that way, and I think that Archer’s reason to make the case was the same reason any elim makes a case against any villager, any time. Maybe controversial opinion, and I was skimming at this point in D1, but when I read Archer’s case my first thought was not about how bad it was, it was mild disagreeing but I didn’t actively think the case was bad. Idk, just seems weird to me to base this case off of something that would normally suggest v!Aman just because it’s Aman.

Do you, as an Elim, make it against Aman, knowing:

A. There would be retaliation,
B. There's bad cases, and there's JNV and Experience actively backing Aman against Archer by claiming Archer has misrepresented what happened in the Teo doc?

There's bad cases. I fully agree.

So why do you make a case that can be factually disproven, by at least two other members of your doc? There's bad, there's D1 arguments, and there's "I'm going to outright be misleading and misrepresent what Aman said in my doc because this will absolutely not backfire at all in any way."

Do you think there is a material difference between pushing Aman specifically with bad arguments as an Elim, and any villager, any time, with bad arguments? Note that Aman and Orlok decisively slaughtered E!Archer C3 of MR56.

@StrikerEZ - You're shading the difference between types of faulty arguments here.

[|TJ|]

4 minutes ago, Amanuensis said:

Amanuensis

GL

Bro, smh >> 

[StrikerEZ]

2 minutes ago, Kasimir said:

Do you, as an Elim, make it against Aman, knowing:

A. There would be retaliation,

Aman isn't a perfect player, on either team, just like no one is. I don't know about Archer, but I certainly wouldn't be opposed to making a case against v!Aman as e!me.

3 minutes ago, Kasimir said:

So why do you make a case that can be factually disproven, by at least two other members of your doc? There's bad, there's D1 arguments, and there's "I'm going to outright be misleading and misrepresent what Aman said in my doc because this will absolutely not backfire at all in any way."

There's also "derping out and forgetting/misremembering something that you did actually read." *points to self*

4 minutes ago, Kasimir said:

Do you think there is a material difference between pushing Aman specifically with bad arguments as an Elim, and any villager, any time, with bad arguments? Note that Aman and Orlok decisively slaughtered E!Archer C3 of MR56.

I don't think there's a difference here. I also think you are over-exaggerating how "bad" Archer's argument was.

5 minutes ago, Kasimir said:

@StrikerEZ - You're shading the difference between types of faulty arguments here.

What does this even mean?

[Amanuensis]

Y'all, I haven't read a word anyone has put into this sudden case on me and I don't plan on it.

It's dumb. And I'm not sorry for saying that.

I'd be the one bussed. Not the other way around.

And I just don't care I did my job. I got two elims.

Good luck. Cya next time (if there is a next time).

[StrikerEZ]

@Amanuensis Wanna take your vote off of yourself? StrikerEZ. I am willing to go down with you over this. I don't think assuming that Archer intentionally made a bad argument (which I don't even find that bad, despite knowing he was an elim) makes sense, plus I don't buy a world where e!Aman just gives up like this immediately.

Edited April 9, 2022 by StrikerEZ
Got rid of the weird extra space that was there

[Mat]

Yeah I’m 100% with Striker on this one

[Amanuensis]

Just now, StrikerEZ said:

@Amanuensis Wanna take your vote off of yourself? StrikerEZ. I am willing to go down with you over this. I don't think assuming that Archer intentionally made a bad argument (which I don't even find that bad, despite knowing he was an elim) makes sense, plus I don't buy a world where e!Aman just gives up like this immediately.

Nope. I wanted to die a few days ago. And frankly in a terrible mood, so I'm tapping out

I hope every villager that votes me feels horrible after.

Byeee

[Kasimir]

6 minutes ago, JNV said:

I dont really want Amanuensis dead but I dont know if I can think clearly on that matter is there a foundation for the case besides 'Archer isnt stupid' cause if there is Id be a lot more confident in it

• Aman's reads appear to be convenience reads and shifting. Again, Mat was the decisive, killing vote on Illwei. This should not put Mat in any position to be lynched in any reasonable game. We have taken down two Elims. Where is the desperation suggestion of killing Mat coming from? If you are suggesting D3 (or toying with the idea of doing so) killing a Villager or a player you, on N2, called more or less Village, then you have a problem. Where is the reason to rethink Mat coming from? Raw paranoia? Paranoia doesn't work that way. 
   
• As requested, here are some of Archer's Evil games: MR52, MR56, LG81 (check this one especially), and MR55, in which Archer survived despite being an outed Elim, and went on to win the game. MR55 and LG81 would be my top recommendations. Relooking the LG83 cycle in which Archer baited the lynch and died would also be relevant.
   

• 6 minutes ago, StrikerEZ said:

  Aman isn't a perfect player, on either team, just like no one is. I don't know about Archer, but I certainly wouldn't be opposed to making a case against v!Aman as e!me.

  On C1? With facts that are easily disprovable by doc mates?

• 7 minutes ago, StrikerEZ said:

  I don't think there's a difference here. I also think you are over-exaggerating how "bad" Archer's argument was.

  I'll fully admit I didn't realise how bad it was until it was actually argued over in the Arelon doc. But you are now simply making assertions rather than engaging with the argument Orlok has laid out.

• 8 minutes ago, StrikerEZ said:

  What does this even mean?

  Bad arguments come in types. My point is that there's weak arguments (e.g. the inference isn't sufficiently strong), and there's arguments that involve blatantly lying or misrepresentation. I don't think you need to buy that Aman is perfect; I think you just need to buy that making a case against a persuasive, confident player like Aman on D1 is suicide. For that matter, if you don't buy it, the next time we're V/E, I welcome you to make a D1 argument against V me. I'm a mid-tier player but I'm decently confident I can C1 you.

[|TJ|]

4 minutes ago, StrikerEZ said:

@Amanuensis Wanna take your vote off of yourself? StrikerEZ. I am willing to go down with you over this. I don't think assuming that Archer intentionally made a bad argument (which I don't even find that bad, despite knowing he was an elim) makes sense, plus I don't buy a world where e!Aman just gives up like this immediately.

Okay, seriously. Where's the logic in this? If you believe Aman is village and you're village you just want to cost the village 2 of our own?

[Amanuensis]

And yes btw I'm legitimately insulted. If one of you isn't an elim than wow. Round of applause.

[Kasimir]

@Elbereth.

I'm going to say that one way or another, if we have reached this point in the gamestate, V!Aman or E!Aman, I don't see a way this cycle is continuing and we need the IM in here.

[StrikerEZ]

10 minutes ago, Kasimir said:

I'll fully admit I didn't realise how bad it was until it was actually argued over in the Arelon doc. But you are now simply making assertions rather than engaging with the argument Orlok has laid out.

Does engaging with the argument mean agreeing with it to you? I have engaged with it. And I disagree.

11 minutes ago, Kasimir said:

Bad arguments come in types. My point is that there's weak arguments (e.g. the inference isn't sufficiently strong), and there's arguments that involve blatantly lying or misrepresentation. I don't think you need to buy that Aman is perfect; I think you just need to buy that making a case against a persuasive, confident player like Aman on D1 is suicide. For that matter, if you don't buy it, the next time we're V/E, I welcome you to make a D1 argument against V me. I'm a mid-tier player but I'm decently confident I can C1 you.

Gonna ignore the second half of this. I think you are ignoring the possibility of someone genuinely misremembering how something went in the doc. Just because someone is an elim and says something that’s untrue doesn’t mean they were intentionally lying or misrepresenting what happened.

11 minutes ago, |TJ| said:

Okay, seriously. Where's the logic in this? If you believe Aman is village and you're village you just want to cost the village 2 of our own?

I am just frustrated and want people to really take a long look at the people pushing me and Aman if/when we flip village.

[shadow1]

17 minutes ago, Amanuensis said:

Nope. I wanted to die a few days ago. And frankly in a terrible mood, so I'm tapping out

I hope every villager that votes me feels horrible after.

Byeee

Aman... how are we supposed to play the game if you are going to be like this when people want to eliminate you? We gotta be able to try to solve!

I don't doubt you're annoyed by this push as either faction. But I was hoping you'd want to actually discuss it, not just give up.

[Elbereth]

Hey y’all! As a quick reminder, this is just a game.  Anyone feeling strongly about the situation should step away and try to recalibrate, please - even if it might result in the exe landing on someone you don’t want it to. 

In particular, please avoid saying or implying that anyone is dumb or stupid, no matter how wrong you think they are. 

I’m around for anyone who wants to talk things out (or voice any other concerns). Thanks. 
 

Also, because this was my plan for my IM post this cycle before all this, I’d like to remind everyone that humanity has eradicated smallpox entirely and forever and that’s incredible and amazing.  

[Mat]

Ok, look. Your argument is built on Aman/Striker being e/e. Can you look at the events of the last hour and honestly say that still makes sense? Because it really doesn’t, and I think the exe is v/v. Tying it is also a mistake, I think, but it’d at least prove it  

shadow, in part to make an attempt to change the exe and in part because I don’t believe the Aman train is 4 villagers. From what I understand it’s within shadow’s elim meta to vote Archer, and she tried to divert the Illwei train while technically supporting it. I agree with TJ that Kas and Orlok are likely village and read TJ as such.

[shadow1]

5 minutes ago, Matrim's Dice said:

Ok, look. Your argument is built on Aman/Striker being e/e. Can you look at the events of the last hour and honestly say that still makes sense? Because it really doesn’t, and I think the exe is v/v. Tying it is also a mistake, I think, but it’d at least prove it  

shadow, in part to make an attempt to change the exe and in part because I don’t believe the Aman train is 4 villagers. From what I understand it’s within shadow’s elim meta to vote Archer, and she tried to divert the Illwei train while technically supporting it. I agree with TJ that Kas and Orlok are likely village and read TJ as such.

 

You're saying that one day I actively killed a wolf, so that's scummy, and one day I didn't actively kill a wolf, so that's scummy XD Are you just making up reasons to try to off someone on the aman train?

[StrikerEZ]

10 minutes ago, Matrim's Dice said:

Ok, look. Your argument is built on Aman/Striker being e/e. Can you look at the events of the last hour and honestly say that still makes sense? Because it really doesn’t, and I think the exe is v/v. Tying it is also a mistake, I think, but it’d at least prove it  

shadow, in part to make an attempt to change the exe and in part because I don’t believe the Aman train is 4 villagers. From what I understand it’s within shadow’s elim meta to vote Archer, and she tried to divert the Illwei train while technically supporting it. I agree with TJ that Kas and Orlok are likely village and read TJ as such.

I agree that one of the Aman voters is an elim. I think it’s probably TJ though. He seems like he’s standing back a bit, like he doesn’t want to be too attached to this exe going bad. Plus it feels like how he acted when he was an elim in my game. 

[Devotary of Spontaneity]

1 hour ago, Orlok Tsubodai said:

The argument for v!Aman I find most compelling is his involvement in Illwei’s lynch, where he requested Matrim vote on Illwei, taking the vote count from this:Devotary of Spontaneity (3): JNV, The Sibling, Araris Valerian

Matrim's Dice (3): Illwei, Kasimir, |TJ|
Illwei (3): The Baker, Bort, Amanuensis
StrikerEZ (3): Matrim's Dice, StrikerEZ, shadow1

To this:

D2:

Illwei (4): Matrim's Dice, The Baker, Bort, Amanuensis
Devotary of Spontaneity (3): JNV, The Sibling, Araris Valerian
Matrim's Dice (3): Illwei, Kasimir, |TJ|
StrikerEZ (2): StrikerEZ, shadow1

Aman's first involvement in Illwei's death was voting here:

Devotary of Spontaneity (5): JNV, Matrim's Dice, The Sibling, Amanuensis, Araris Valerian

Matrim's Dice (4): StrikerEZ, Illwei, Kasimir, |TJ|

Illwei (2): The Baker, Bort

StrikerEZ (1): shadow1

 

making it

 

Devotary of Spontaneity (4): JNV, Matrim's Dice, The Sibling,Araris Valerian

Matrim's Dice (4): StrikerEZ, Illwei, Kasimir, |TJ|

Illwei (3): The Baker, Bort, Amanuensis

StrikerEZ (1): shadow1

 

This is ~ 1 hour before rollover. Neither Illwei nor Striker were in any significant danger, and only become threatened because Aman's shift put things closer to tie range. Aman already has v!credit from voting Archer D1. I don't see the elims purposefully killing their roleblocker when they're so close to (presumably) two village deaths.

[Kasimir]

7 minutes ago, Matrim's Dice said:

Ok, look. Your argument is built on Aman/Striker being e/e. Can you look at the events of the last hour and honestly say that still makes sense? Because it really doesn’t, and I think the exe is v/v. Tying it is also a mistake, I think, but it’d at least prove it  

Part of the reason Orlok made the push and voted Aman rather than Striker is that not all of Arelon, myself included, is thoroughly convinced Striker is Evil. Which is why my response to you doesn't involve E!Striker thoughts at all.

Aman Kasimir.

This is a protest vote. I am no longer engaging with this cycle because once we have gotten to this point, there is no ethical way I can accept a lynch on Striker or Aman, whether they flip Evil or Village.

[Devotary of Spontaneity]

1 minute ago, StrikerEZ said:

I agree that one of the Aman voters is an elim. I think it’s probably TJ though. He seems like he’s standing back a bit, like he doesn’t want to be too attached to this exe going bad. Plus it feels like how he acted when he was an elim in my game. 

I do think it would be risky for an elim to push v!Aman this strongly since he's hard to exe especially after two consecutive votes on elims, but 'reluctant' support is a great place for them.

Just now, Kasimir said:

This is a protest vote. I am no longer engaging with this cycle because once we have gotten to this point, there is no ethical way I can accept a lynch on Striker or Aman, whether they flip Evil or Village.

Last hour TJ push from nowhere, here we go.

[Kasimir]

Just now, Devotary of Spontaneity said:

Last hour TJ push from nowhere, here we go.

Can I interest you in a Kasimir vote?

[Ashbringer]

… well, I just woke up. Give me a sec. Or an hour.

[Mat]

10 minutes ago, shadow1 said:

You're saying that one day I actively killed a wolf, so that's scummy, and one day I didn't actively kill a wolf, so that's scummy XD Are you just making up reasons to try to off someone on the aman train?

No lol ofc voting out an elim isn’t scummy by itself, it’s not a reason you’re suspicious it’s just not a reason you’re not either, I do think the Illwei point has merit and I would be surprised if this Aman push is pure. I’ve stated all those reasons before, they’re not out of nowhere.

 

Also self voting is never never the answer for anything, it’s a thing that seems to be springing up more lately and is just… not helpful, if you don’t like the exe, find a different one that aligns with your wincon closer than self voting does, thank you!