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@Matrim's Dice You've said it twice, just in this night cycle, after Striker twice tried to secure last second votes to ensure multiple deaths instead of just eliminators.

And of course I didn't mention Aman in my post - he's not in our Empire doc, which is who I was talking about. I will say though, you do make a good argument for v!Aman.

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I tried quoting this on mobile and it all quoted like one jumbled mess but @Orlok Tsubodai, this is pertaining to post #64 - Devotary's. Why is she villager in 'Perceived AI' column? You've only used 'villager' when describing confirmed villagers' posts. 

Edited by |TJ|
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1 minute ago, |TJ| said:

I tried quoting this on mobile and it all quoted like one jumbled mess but @Orlok Tsubodai, this is pertaining to post #64 - Devotary's. Why is she villager in 'Perceived AI' column? You've given only used 'villager' when describing confirmed villagers' posts. 

You can wait for Orlok to answer for himself in thread, but I also pointed it out in the doc so if you don't want to wait for a response, just get in there already bhai :P 

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1 minute ago, |TJ| said:

I tried quoting this on mobile and it all quoted like one jumbled mess but @Orlok Tsubodai, this is pertaining to post #64 - Devotary's. Why is she villager in 'Perceived AI' column? You've given only used 'villager' when describing confirmed villagers' posts. 

Thanks for actually reading it, at least.

Kas raised this in our doc, too. I genuinely don't know, but think I must have written it whilst reading the green Experience in the votes column.

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3 hours ago, Matrim's Dice said:

TJ/Orlok/maybe shadow is next and I like that less.

Would it make you feel better if I say my V!Orlok credences are slowly climbing? :P 

Edited to add:

3 hours ago, Matrim's Dice said:

tbh I don't see the elims valuing a doctor over a RBer and I doubt they have a Monk.

I think Aman accepted the role point already. I also agree with Devo and have raised it previously - little reason to conserve ammo if she's an E!Monk, as there's a possibility we'd just come back to her the next day!

Edited to add #2:

I think I've found a tactful way to explain my V!Orlok credences beyond policy V read.

If Orlok is Evil this game, this would make it his third Evil game in a row, back-to-back. I've been there for two of his, the previous two. I've seen how he operates. My sense of him right now is that he is too relaxed, engaged (though on his own terms), and sane to be Evil a third time in a row, on a team that has already had two back to back flips, comprising Archer and Illwei.

I don't see it.

It's possible that Orlok has developed high level skills in method acting, in which case, well-played, I guess. I'm happy to stay watchful and revise if necessary, too.

The other issue is that he's been doing it in extended, live communications via doc interaction, and I'd expect it to be harder to project appearances like this, not easier. Even PMs afford some distance. Again, all my necessary disclaimers—I'm not Wilson, there are three SE players who can read Orlok easily, early, and effectively, and only one of them is still currently active in SE and that's Orlok himself. That being said, that's what my sense of him right now is, and I just thought I'd put it out here that this is what is currently informing my read.

He's chill and into this, not going stark raving insane, not stressed, and I don't think he can keep this up long enough to keep on fooling me in a doc. That's really about it.

Edited to add #3: FYI if this gets me killed, please do not immediately sus Orlok for this, this is too bloody predictable, and this is legit partly why I was reluctant to say it. Sometimes a cigar is just a cigar. Some kels were just meant to die.

Edited by Kasimir
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LG84 Day 3: Araolis Borealis

Writeup, writeup... I need to write up a chem assignment I'll do this later

 

Araris Valerian was killed! They were a Regular Diplomat within the Rose Empire!

 

Orlok posted so we're good on player activity.

The turn will end on April 9th at 12:00 PDT / 7:00 GMT.

 

Player List:

Spoiler
  1. Thaidakar the Ghostblood - Levin Adventure Fjordell Regular Diplomat
  2. @JNV - Eshena
  3. @Matrim's Dice - Philico
  4. @StrikerEZ - Dior Braondo
  5. Archer - General Manager Atashbringer - Teo Regular Disruptor
  6. Illwei - please Rose ChayShan Practitioner Disruptor
  7. @The Baker - The Baker
  8. @The Sibling - Lyric
  9. @Bort - Bortington the Blind
  10. @Tani - Mehelin
  11. @Kasimir - Kesan Acheris
  12. @Amanuensis - Jotaon Josteor
  13. @Devotary of Spontaneity - Dahlia
  14. Araris Valerian - AraolisRose Regular Diplomat
  15. @Orlok Tsubodai - Locke
  16. @shadow1
  17. @|TJ| - Bark
  18. Experience - Zara - Teo Regular Diplomat

 

Edited by Elbereth
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Ni su'cuyi, gar kyr'adyc, ni partayli, gar darasuum, Araris.

Assume they went low-info this time, which is a sharp contrast to the Exp kill, though we now have a pattern:

D1: Disruptor in Teo
N1: Diplomat in Teo
D2: Disruptor in Rose
N2: Diplomat in Rose

Araris just feels weird though, given the Rose roster: <Striker, Baker, Tani, Illwei, Araris>

Why not Baker, if you're going low-info in Rose? Why not Sibling? 

Also wondering if given the Illwei bus comment, they're going for a paranoia play here, on the presumption of two+ Elims left. 

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Hi all,

@Wyrmhero is miffed that he missed signing up for this game and that he can't say this, so has asked me to say it on his behalf but we'll all pretend it's actually coming from me because I'm playing this game and he isn't:

"Araolis Borealis? At this time of Cycle, at this time of Day, in this forum, localised entirely within this thread?"

-Wyrmimir

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4 hours ago, Amanuensis said:

did Araris imply he had a role in your doc?

Not that I remember, but I'm willing to go back and check, looking for that specifically, if you like.

1 hour ago, The Baker said:

Kasimir

  Hide contents

anPUroH.png

Kasimir

Why? Are you willing to share your reasoning?

 

Ed1t: At this time, I don't think Kas is bad. Would you be willing to share your reasons why you think Kas is bad so the plague can spread I can try to understand, have more information, and perhaps use that information to develop suspicions?

 

Ed2t:

4 hours ago, Kasimir said:

Ni su'cuyi, gar kyr'adyc, ni partayli, gar darasuum, Araris.

What language-thing is this and how do I learn it it looks cool.

Edited by Tani
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19 minutes ago, Tani said:

Not that I remember, but I'm willing to go back and check, looking for that specifically, if you like.

Why? Are you willing to share your reasoning?

 

Edit: At this time, I don't think Kas is bad. Would you be willing to share your reasons why you think Kas is bad so the plague can spread I can try to understand, have more information, and perhaps use that information to develop suspicions?

Please do.

Btw everyone I'm not a Dakhor Monk I just decided to go with what Kas said to get some discussion going / see how the elims would react.

Killing Araris is not what I'd expect, so now I'm just confuzzled.

@The Baker I consider it my duty to vote Kasimir if he is evil, and I know he will thank me after. At the same time, I will never forgive myself if I vote Kasimir and he isn't evil. So if you are really sure you're gonna need to convince me. Are you an Elantrian that saw him visit Araris last night or something?

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3 minutes ago, Amanuensis said:

Btw everyone I'm not a Dakhor Monk I just decided to go with what Kas said to get some discussion going / see how the elims would react.

Killing Araris is not what I'd expect, so now I'm just confuzzled.

Aw, I was hoping you killed Araris and someone had a roleblock to report.

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Heh sorry, not me at least. I've been leaning village for Araris. Would have shot a player that would have given more info too.

That's something I didn't consider tho. Assumed we'd see a failed kill like someone was protected but roleblocking stops it from happening all together.

If Araris was vigilante'd and the elim kill was roleblocked...

Will the real Dakhor Monk please stand up? Please stand up? (Please stand up?)

ED1T:

Both Araris and Experience are viewing the thread rn and I'm sad :(

Quote

I don't know how to, get warm in this bed

I don't know how to, get out of my head

Cold, alone, empty; filled only with dread

Why did Fate take you? Why am I not dead?

While the above is a stanza from a proto-song written by 7-year-old Kon after the wraith possession of his older brother Rin and brutal gravity based magic murder of their mother Kir, I found it oddly fitting in how depressed I am BECAUSE I'M STILL NOT DEAD

Edited by Amanuensis
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13 hours ago, Tani said:

I don't think you understood.

I voted Araris because, in the doc, someone said they didn't want our empire revealed, and it was in Araris' color.

I voted Baker because, in the doc, someone used a color that wasn't theirs, and I thought it might have been Baker who said they didn't want our empire revealed, using Araris' color accidentally. (It was words, not pics of bread.)

I voted Illwei because, in the doc, someone said they didn't want our empire revealed and said why, and Illwei admitted to being the one to not want her empire revealed. She also gave a reason that I didn't really understand. (Since when was TMI bad for the village when the elims already had the info?)

Now is it clear?

 

Sorry, I'm being frustrated right now because I thought I already explained this.

Ok so I thoguht I saw a post from you saying that not wanting to reveal was a vil opinion but I cant find it so just ignore this and if thread people know what Im talking about pleas elink it I looked through previous stuff but got all mixed up aah

21 hours ago, Amanuensis said:

NGL I'm kinda leaning toward 1 elim per doc rn. Mostly because I don't think Archer inviting openness was Disruptor motivated, whereas after Archer died, Illwei pushing no mass reveal was because she felt it would hurt them in some way. It didn't match up with the Neighborhood game Illwei, Shadow, and I played. I think she wanted to keep the information advantage.

See the elims would still have the information about doc members with 0 1 1 2 cause process of elimination for doc members so really pushing no mass reveal for strategy wise doesnt really imply one way or another on that does imply at least 3 infiltrated empires which was kinda the going assumption 

20 hours ago, Kasimir said:

Okay, I thought I knew what this word meant since Illwei kept using it but I think I don't actually. What's equity, and why?

I also dont know what equity is in mafia context but I keep reading it as financial definition of shares in a compnay and its kinda funny that way oh they have shares in the company 'partners with Devotary' I guess I can kinda get why people made it mean something along the lines of 'a somewhat likely thing' it does kinda fit and its a snappy word nice word 

12 hours ago, Kasimir said:

IDK why I just did this. Can someone who actually works with posts help me out here because I feel I just walked into this pit even though I knew there's a reason I don't do these things >>

Ok Ill try 

So D1 Devotary doesnt really interact with Archer or Illwei all that much except for floaty stuff thats not really indicative of anything until the Archer vote the thing is the Archer vote train doesnt really read as 'oh no lets save Devotary our power role' it reads as 'this dude made a supsicious post' because... they did. I can maybe see people jumping on that suspicous post to save Devotary but thats just in theory the actual voes on them read very clean it just doesnt feel like a 'save Dvotary' attempt the only thing that could be hmm is how Archer voted Thaidakar instead of Devotary 

And after that they never interact again seriously Illwei never mentions Devotary and Devotary never mentions Illwei so Im sorry but post analysis really isnt helping here any more than good ol vote analysis

So the thing about Devotary suspicion is its founded on one that Experience vote two Archer preferring Thaidakar three Illwei preferring Matrim and thats supposed to show thye wanted Devotary ailve but heres the thing the way the votes went down on Archer doesnt really imply attempt at saving Devotary unless Archers post was intentionally sus to save them but the votes on there seem legit same with votes on Illwei besides why killwei to save Devotary when Illweis a roleblocker and I know I voted Devotary last time but the more I think about it the more I just kinda think thyere village  

2 hours ago, Tani said:

What language-thing is this and how do I learn it it looks cool.

The language is Mandoa the phrase is a daily recitation for the dead it means 'I am still alive but you are dead I remember you so you are eternal' and then you say the name its very cool 

ok now RP Ive neglected it

 

With the comforting warmth of tea in hand, Eshena began walking to the meeting room. With enough tea, they could do anything, even be a diplomat. Maybe. Hopefully. As she reached the room, she took a moment to glance at the names of removed diplomats. A few unfamiliar faces, Zara dead, and– Atashbringer had been a disrupter? They hadn't known the General very well, but they had seemed at least somewhat devoted to the task. Though, in hindsight, revealing the entirety of the Teod empire was a little bold, even for a former soldier. 

They took a sip of tea, trying to build up the confidence to push open the doors. Two disrupters gone in as many days. Maybe they weren't needed after all. Maybe they could go back to being a courier and scribe instead of being a diplomat. It wasn't like they could make matters much better with the current track record of the room. Maybe...

They took another sip of tea. It was too late to turn back. They'd already told their superiors that they would show up. With a shaking hand, they pushed the door. It didn't open. Then they realized it was a pull door. They pulled the door open awkwardly and stepped inside.

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6 minutes ago, JNV said:

See the elims would still have the information about doc members with 0 1 1 2 cause process of elimination for doc members so really pushing no mass reveal for strategy wise doesnt really imply one way or another on that does imply at least 3 infiltrated empires which was kinda the going assumption 

Mmm thank you for making this point, I didn’t want to be stuck to 1 elim per doc 

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Oh right, I think that's the biggest thing that weirds me out with Archer/Devo/Illwei.

Why did neither Archer or Illwei ever vote Devotary when Kas and I were both pushing her?

Why does E!Archer prefer Thaid over Devotary on D1?

Why does E!Illwei prefer Mat over Devotary on D2?

ED1T:

Like, if I was in their shoes, I'd definitely ML Devo and point fingers at the people that were pushing Devo harder. Thaid D1 is such a boring ML because it doesn't really lead anywhere? Mat was obviously doing more by D2 so why prefer Mat over Devo, who has mostly been skating by in comparison?

Devo either they were both deliberately trying to make you look like a teammate or you just are one. Until I see something explicitly village from you, I can't buy the framing possibility.

Even cutting out the role theory, bussing is a great way for elims to gain cred when allies seem like a foregone conclusion. While I'm not refusing to believe that Archer wasn't bussed, what I care most about is what players do after they self-prez. I just haven't seen a desire to solve :( so that + Experience vote + never been voted by two known elims + rapidly shrinking PoE leave me kinda stuck here.

...that all said, I STILL DON'T GET WHY I'M ALIVE. Elims banking on me tunneling you out and organizing a mass village grave? I must trust one of them when I shouldn't or else they'd want me gone ASAP.

Bleh.

@Ashbringer cuz vote

Edited by Amanuensis
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1 hour ago, Amanuensis said:

Why does E!Archer prefer Thaid over Devotary on D1?

  • Archer (4): Amanuensis, shadow1, Experience, Devotary of Spontaneity, Kasimir
  • Thaidakar the Ghostblood (3): Matrim's Dice, The Baker, |TJ|
  • Devotary of Spontaneity (2): StrikerEZ, Araris Valerian
  • Experience (1): Thaidakar the Ghostblood
  • Amanuensis (1): Archer
1 hour ago, Amanuensis said:

Why does E!Illwei prefer Mat over Devotary on D2?

llwei (2): The Baker, Tani
Devotary (1): Amanuensis
Matrim's Dice (1): Kasimir
StrikerEZ (1): Araris Valerian
Araris Valerian (1): StrikerEZ

Less sure on this one. Araris was definitely village, I think Mat is, Striker's still out there.

I think Illwei would have been in favor of claiming if Fjorden and Arelon are clean, though stated opinions and actual desires can differ. Did that discussion happen prior to when the members of Fjorden and Arelon were known anyone in the Rose doc? Going down that route suggests TJ or Bort or possibly shadow and I don't know if I want to go down that route. TJ couldn't have saved Illwei C2 unless one of Mat, Aman, shadow, Striker is evil and that would look quite suspicious. I don't think killing Araris is helpful for a team that has Tani. Sibling suspicion hasn't gone away but I don't think this is the best time to go for low actives.

 

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4 hours ago, Tani said:

What language-thing is this and how do I learn it it looks cool.

2 hours ago, JNV said:

The language is Mandoa the phrase is a daily recitation for the dead it means 'I am still alive but you are dead I remember you so you are eternal' and then you say the name its very cool 

What JNV said. I don't say it in every game, or for every player. It's personal and I say it for them and I say it for me. I've said it in AG8 for instance, when Orlok died. Everyone else doesn't enter into it. It's a promise, and I take my promises seriously.

4 hours ago, Amanuensis said:

I consider it my duty to vote Kasimir if he is evil, and I know he will thank me after. At the same time, I will never forgive myself if I vote Kasimir and he isn't evil

The same for you, ThreadPMBro. And for Orlok and for TJ. It is a sacred duty >:(

4 hours ago, Amanuensis said:

Are you an Elantrian that saw him visit Araris last night or something?

God, I really hope that's what he claims, because then the play is obvious; we lynch me, I flip Village, then we lynch him. Easiest, most low effort way I'd have ever helped find an Elim :D 

...And candy and teddy bears will rain down from the skies...

...And Wyrm will return and GM a SE game or play a SE game with me again...

It's never this easy is it :(

2 hours ago, JNV said:

And after that they never interact again seriously Illwei never mentions Devotary and Devotary never mentions Illwei so Im sorry but post analysis really isnt helping here any more than good ol vote analysis

Thanks JNV! Basically what I'm asking is: is Illwei trying to claim it's a bus to distance from one or more teammates on the Archer train? Or was she trying to redirect attention away from teammates on the CWs (does this imply the Archer train is pure? Is it? I don't know.) The point of me trying to look at what they're doing is to try to work this out.

2 hours ago, Amanuensis said:

Even cutting out the role theory, bussing is a great way for elims to gain cred when allies seem like a foregone conclusion. While I'm not refusing to believe that Archer wasn't bussed, what I care most about is what players do after they self-prez. I just haven't seen a desire to solve :( so that + Experience vote + never been voted by two known elims + rapidly shrinking PoE leave me kinda stuck here.

Thoughts on Elantrian for the role theory? If Elims assume there are Village roleblocks or protects out there, they have an incentive to identify and remove them, and without PMs, their main source of info would have to be docs with poor opsec or a scanner.

I'm still working on identifying responses to Exp's claim to do the work. I've gotten a rough typology out, although I think some responses are odd enough I'm not sure my typology is correct. Will probably have to ask Orlok when he gets on how he does his table so I can upload that and the strip plot. The short of it is that we have one unique Elim response (Illwei's), and an extremely populated tier that likely has Elim responses bundled into Village responses (because Archer is there.) More analysis to follow once I learn how the blazes Orlok does his tables. At the moment, I'm leaning towards Devo, if only because I strongly feel that we're just going to go back and forth about her at this point and I want to stop worrying about it and just collapse the damn IKYK.

No matter what shakes out, to the Elims and people who suspect me, thank you for giving me at least until Day Three alive <3

I've missed this. The experience of just chilling in a doc, and discussing and trying to solve with my bros. It's good to have them back again. The last time I experienced this was with Vulture and Ostrich in AG8, and I really, really missed this, and it's making me rediscover what I find fun about SE and what I love about it <3

I'd really prefer dying over Orlok and TJ because I know Orlok needs a fun game and I'm glad he seems to be Village and getting back into this :) But I'm also glad that I've gotten this chance to actually just go back into discussion mode with my bros and I have no regrets signing up for this game.

Edited to add:

2 hours ago, Amanuensis said:

Why does E!Archer prefer Thaid over Devotary on D1?

What Devo said, but here's the longer form in our doc as Orlok and I did have an exchange about this:

Let's go back to the timeline. At 0253hrs, this is the votecount announced by Ash. This votecount is mistaken, but let’s run analysis by both sets of counts.

Ash’s Count:

Quote

Archer (4): Amanuensis, shadow1, Experience, Devotary of Spontaneity
Devotary of Spontaneity (3): StrikerEZ, Kasimir, Araris Valerian
Thaidakar the Ghostblood (3): Matrim's Dice, The Baker, |TJ|
Experience (1): Thaidakar the Ghostblood
Amanuensis (1): Archer

Actual Count:

Quote

Archer (3): Amanuensis, shadow1, Devotary of Spontaneity
Devotary of Spontaneity (3): StrikerEZ, Kasimir, Araris Valerian
Thaidakar the Ghostblood (3): Matrim's Dice, The Baker, |TJ|
Experience (1): Thaidakar the Ghostblood
Amanuensis (1): Archer
Tani (1): Experience

Important to note that on either count, Archer would know he is in the lead train or one of the lead trains. Would likely feel more pressure to self pres if he followed Ash's count, though in my view, if Devo is also Evil, then the only move for Archer working off the actual count is to go on Thaid, based off. (But then why would Devo vote Archer anyway? Why not just vote Thaid? Low-hanging fruit problem?)

Next, at 0257hrs, I get over my indecision, have been typing up a post, and go. This makes the count:

Ash’s Count:

Quote

Archer (5): Amanuensis, shadow1, Experience, Devotary of Spontaneity, Kasimir
Devotary of Spontaneity (2): StrikerEZ, Araris Valerian
Thaidakar the Ghostblood (3): Matrim's Dice, The Baker, |TJ|
Experience (1): Thaidakar the Ghostblood
Amanuensis (1): Archer

Actual Count:

Quote

Archer (4): Amanuensis, shadow1, Devotary of Spontaneity, Kasimir
Devotary of Spontaneity (2): StrikerEZ, Araris Valerian
Thaidakar the Ghostblood (3): Matrim's Dice, The Baker, |TJ|
Experience (1): Thaidakar the Ghostblood
Amanuensis (1): Archer
Tani (1): Experience

Either way, the only viable self-pres option as of my vote movement is to Thaid. The real question is whether Archer: a) anticipated Striker’s attempt, and b ) had enough time to see my shift. Because at 0258hrs, Archer posts a oneliner that shifts from Aman to Thaid to self-pres, which implies that it was written up fairly quickly, potentially in response to my post, or shortly after.

@|TJ|, I know you pull timestamps with more fine-grained detail than that. Is it possible to get a comparative timestamp of my post and Archer's? If Archer's comes too close after, Archer deliberately voting Thaid becomes that much more of a possibility.

Anyway:

Ash’s Count:

Quote

Archer (5): Amanuensis, shadow1, Experience, Devotary of Spontaneity, Kasimir
Devotary of Spontaneity (2): StrikerEZ, Araris Valerian
Thaidakar the Ghostblood (4): Matrim's Dice, The Baker, |TJ|, Archer
Experience (1): Thaidakar the Ghostblood

Actual Count:

Quote

Archer (4): Amanuensis, shadow1, Devotary of Spontaneity, Kasimir
Devotary of Spontaneity (2): StrikerEZ, Araris Valerian
Thaidakar the Ghostblood (4): Matrim's Dice, The Baker, |TJ|, Archer
Experience (1): Thaidakar the Ghostblood
Tani (1): Experience

And then we get these results. Striker’s vote movement was explicitly intended to save Archer, but fell outside the acceptable time range. If we think Archer was aware of my shift, then Devo wasn’t an acceptable train. If Archer didn’t take note of my shift, then yes, he made a conscious choice to ML Thaid instead.

But then we have to ask ourselves a further question: was Devo being framed?

To which, I genuinely do not know anymore as I have gone back and forth about her.

Edited by Kasimir
formatting, grammar
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46 minutes ago, Kasimir said:

And then we get these results. Striker’s vote movement was explicitly intended to save Archer, but fell outside the acceptable time range. If we think Archer was aware of my shift, then Devo wasn’t an acceptable train. If Archer didn’t take note of my shift, then yes, he made a conscious choice to ML Thaid instead.

I was going off of Ash’s count. My Thaid vote was never intended to save Archer, it was intended to kill Thaid too. Assuming you’re talking about my last minute D1 vote that didn’t go through. Otherwise I might be mixing things up in my head.

Also, JNV. I think one of him or Devo is evil, and would prefer a world where we can collapse both possibilities at the same time. He seemed like he was reaching for a reason to go for Devo in that post of his. The Kas and Aman votes on Devo feel more genuine to me. Mostly because I had similar reasons to them for suspecting Devo, but then JNV has kind of reaching reasons that Devo has pointed out don’t quite make sense. I doubt a Devo exe isn’t happening today at this point, but would prefer either a Devo/JNV exe or just a JNV exe. My least favorite scenario is a Devo only exe.

Of course knowing my luck, this is gonna bite me in the butt if Devo flips elim. :P

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