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20 minutes ago, Amanuensis said:

NGL I'm kinda leaning toward 1 elim per doc rn. Mostly because I don't think Archer inviting openness was Disruptor motivated, whereas after Archer died, Illwei pushing no mass reveal was because she felt it would hurt them in some way. It didn't match up with the Neighborhood game Illwei, Shadow, and I played. I think she wanted to keep the information advantage.

Bah, can't sleep. Thought I'd sleep like the dead once the GMing is over but I just feel on edge.

Anyway—one per doc isn't implausible but it leaves me at an odd place because (and again, haven't caught up with EoD, not sure if Shadow or TJ did anything there as my head was largely on processing the MR at that time), my current state is that I don't actually E!read anyone in my doc at all. I do think the improved V!read on Orlok given the Illwei flip is fair, and I have moderate confidence in it, even if I don't have a tactful way of explaining it to the thread or the doc, and some of that reasoning might not be what others might go for, I guess, since it relies on character assessment. So I guess I'll just say it in my heart. I'd probably be more confident when he shows up again and says more, or revise it, but that's just how these things go.

With TJ, the more I look at that doc conversation, the more I feel that it just happened very naturally/casually, as though he was reading it and really just sort of confused/missed what was going on with Exp, which makes me lean TJ. In an E!TJ world, I'd almost have to speculate he did that on purpose to mislead me, since Archer should have forewarned the team. Invite my doc mates @Orlok Tsubodai @shadow1 to comment on it, too. 

With Shadow, it's her voting patterns (the C1 on Archer, and talking me along.) 

So that's where I'm at. I'm sort of semi-committed to some strength of V read on all three of them, which means I either have to claim I'm mistaken about one of them (who?) or reject the one Elim per doc hypothesis.

What's your current Shadow read, since you have play history? 

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Broskis I'll be busy till Saturday, predominantly on phone with limited laptop access so I'll just be chipping in from the phone now and then. 

Current thoughts is I donno where we go from here because Mat's annoyance that he couldn't do more in D1 felt genuine and Devo... I really have no clue. 

With regards to the MR57 reason for not voting on Archer, it's because I tunnelled and almost got him MLed in that game, which made me want to be more careful and take more time to solve his slot accurately as I didn't want to ML him as early as D1 (stating this would have shown I was village in MR57, which is why I couldn't say this). 

I also think my village read on Aman is mainly due to how different he feels in this game when compared to MR57. 

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Just now, Amanuensis said:

It wasn't the voting two elims in a row thing that told you? :P

Yes, that too, but I was v-reading you prior to D2 cycle based on your content :P I mentioned before that I had an MR57 reason for v-reading you but couldn't remember if I said it here too or just in the doc, so I thought I'd explain it here.

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Fair enough :P

@Kasimir I think if there is an uncompromised doc from the start, yours could be it.

Shadow is... playing how I would expect her from both alignments tbh. I kinda weigh her the same threat level as I weigh myself. A little traumatized after how badly she duped me the first time :P

Like, she's definitely been warier of me, which makes sense as a Villager who doesn't know my alignment. But she would also know she can't pocket me twice and would need to be more wary if she were a wolf again, so...

Probably judge her on your own :P and wait for a few more flips. She has partner equity with Devo imo so if Devo flips elim, maybe reconsider her. Otherwise, I trust your judgment.

Edited by Amanuensis
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Gonna go out on a limb here because it sounds like we're looking for Dakhor targets.

Based off the current state of my credences, if someone absolutely has to shoot someone in FRIENDS, please shoot me.

I can't condone a shot on TJ based on my current thoughts, Orlok deserves to have fun in a game for once if he's Village, and it's just rude to call for an airstrike on Shadow and I v read her anyway.

If shooting me helps you figure some stuff out, just go for it. I've already asked my doc mates to keep being bros and make sure each other has a fun game.

13 minutes ago, |TJ| said:

Yes, that too, but I was v-reading you prior to D2 cycle based on your content :P I mentioned before that I had an MR57 reason for v-reading you but couldn't remember if I said it here too or just in the doc, so I thought I'd explain it here.

You said that in doc. I actually considered that defeasible since in the DF doc, Aman mentioned he needed to mask his lack of WiM as Evil ¯\_(ツ)_/¯

Edited to add:

3 minutes ago, Amanuensis said:

Otherwise, I trust your judgment.

AAAAAAAAAAAAA

NO WAIT

PRESSURE

I DON'T

DON'T TRUST MY JUDGEMENT

Ok ok nevermind we have an entire doc they can do this. God.

Edited to add 2:

4 minutes ago, Amanuensis said:

She has partner equity with Devo imo

Okay, I thought I knew what this word meant since Illwei kept using it but I think I don't actually. What's equity, and why?

Edited by Kasimir
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I don't know the exact definition, but from context, it appears to be like a probability thing. So if I said "I have Dakhor Monk equity" that means there's a decent probability of me being a Dakhor Monk and killing someone tonight.

In this case, Shadow having partner equity with Devo means there's a possibility of them being on a team. This assumes that Devo has a specific role the elims really don't want to lose, hence Devo self-prezing on Archer D1 rather than getting caught in the immediate future for saving Archer by voting Thaid.

ED1T:

@Kasimir btw don't worry, I don't plan on shooting you or anyone else in your doc.

I was debating between JNV/Sibling but then I checked the doc and I feel a lot better about them, so no longer gonna entertain the possibility of them being elim while I'm still alive.

My preference is Devo obviously :P but would like people to weigh in before I accidentally ruin my kill streak with friendly fire :D

Edited by Amanuensis
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18 minutes ago, Amanuensis said:

In this case, Shadow having partner equity with Devo means there's a possibility of them being on a team. This assumes that Devo has a specific role the elims really don't want to lose, hence Devo self-prezing on Archer D1 rather than getting caught in the immediate future for saving Archer by voting Thaid.

Got it, yeah. Question is, I suppose, what that role would be. If she were a Dakhor, she'd just have blown the one-shot, I'd almost imagine. But what are the odds of two RBs? (I know, I know, in the current state of our ignorance, we can't speculate about distro...) Protect seems underpowered for them because if the main NKs are from Dakhors and are one-shots, then really the main utility of an Elim protect role that they'd rather preserve is to keep that WGG/WBG potential. Forger is odd given we haven't seen one used.

In summation: ¯\_(ツ)_/¯

18 minutes ago, Amanuensis said:

@Kasimir btw don't worry, I don't plan on shooting you or anyone else in your doc.

Man, you could've said this before TJ goes and yells at me about trying to take kills for him again :( 

I assume Orlok is not the kind of bro to do that but we'll find out when he logs in, I guess.

Edited to add: @Matrim's Dice 's comments have basically gotten me to figure I need to re-evaluate Devo and consider if I still suspect her. That will...really wait for after sleep. I do not trust myself in this current state to actually look at posts properly.

Edited by Kasimir
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Hm true, roleblocker is probably the most important role for them, but I could see Devo being a doctor or vigilante. Perhaps they wanted to maximize the effectiveness of a second kill by hitting someone with a role (Illwei's role implies there are a decent number of village roles imo). Either way, you're right; that's a point in Devo's favor.

I'm slightly concerned that Mat is protecting Devo because they're E/V and e!Mat doesn't want to draw further scrutiny by losing a 2nd member of his Empire + hoping that him being right about Devo will look good for him after the flip. That would mean hard distancing from Illwei like I did with Orlok/Bort in MR57 tho, which I'm not inclined to believe atp.

Bort is the other person in their doc and he also voted Illwei, so idk, I really do think he's just V!Bort right now. Granted I don't have the same TMI I did in MR57, but I just don't feel it; @Bort I'd very much like you to chime in tho, since you did help us kill Illwei. What led to you voting her anyway?

If someone really wants another player killed tonight, now is when you should begin pitching me your case on them :P

And no Shadow, I will not shoot Striker xD

Edited by Amanuensis
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3 hours ago, Tani said:

Actually I skimmed the thread, thought I'd accidentally started a giant bus with a flimsy reason, so unvoted.

After all, how would you be analyzing my flimsy reason vote if I hadn't retracted it and Illwei'd flipped vil?

 

I worry about the people I help kill flipping vil and me getting elimread from it, especially if the reason I voted doesn't seem sturdy to the rest of yous.

Voting for villagers is just how it goes sometimes. Voting for the people you find suspicious helps everyone get a better read of you overall I think, even if a single vote can give the wrong impression.

26 minutes ago, Amanuensis said:

In this case, Shadow having partner equity with Devo means there's a possibility of them being on a team. This assumes that Devo has a specific role the elims really don't want to lose, hence Devo self-prezing on Archer D1 rather than getting caught in the immediate future for saving Archer by voting Thaid.

Why do you think I would have been fine with Illwei and I both dying as an elim? What role do you think e!me could possibly have? Neither Archer nor Illwei would have died were I an elim Forger. As a Monk, killing someone N1 prevents that kill from being lost. I gladly would have died for Archer or Illwei with anything less.

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4 minutes ago, Devotary of Spontaneity said:

Why do you think I would have been fine with Illwei and I both dying as an elim? What role do you think e!me could possibly have? Neither Archer nor Illwei would have died were I an elim Forger. As a Monk, killing someone N1 prevents that kill from being lost. I gladly would have died for Archer or Illwei with anything less.

I'm willing to entertain this.

Who would you have voted yesterday if you could? (I noticed you didn't vote just now)

Who would you like me to kill tonight most?

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22 minutes ago, Amanuensis said:

Who would you have voted yesterday if you could? (I noticed you didn't vote just now)

Who would you like me to kill tonight most?

I was feeling better about Mat by then so I would have voted for one of Illwei, Striker, or Bort (had he been an option). Bort's vote for Illwei looks pretty good so I wouldn't kill him. I'm still not sure about Striker. I would be fine with Tani or Sibling being killed. I think it's likely more than one elim voted D1 even though Archer wasn't in serious danger until an hour before rollover.

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3 hours ago, Amanuensis said:

Bort is the other person in their doc and he also voted Illwei, so idk, I really do think he's just V!Bort right now. Granted I don't have the same TMI I did in MR57, but I just don't feel it; @Bort I'd very much like you to chime in tho, since you did help us kill Illwei. What led to you voting her anyway?

I've not had much time to do any real analysis, so my votes have been just going by my gut, but there were a couple of Illwei comments that pricked my ears up, so to speak.

First up, the elim/envoy claim. Might have been trolling. might have been a mistake, but still rather dodgy. Then her insistance that "if she was an elim, Archer wouldnt have died."

There were just too many little comments and coincidences like this for me, so I voted accordingly.

It's no great secret now that I share a doc with Devo and Mat, and out of the two I'm getting a better village vibe from Devo. Mostly due to Mat's pushing that Striker is village even though he has spent the past two vote cycles trying to kill villagers alongside eliminators.

So, right now, my biggest suspicions are Striker, mostly for those highly dodgy looking last second voting habits.

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12 minutes ago, Bort said:

I've not had much time to do any real analysis, so my votes have been just going by my gut, but there were a couple of Illwei comments that pricked my ears up, so to speak.

First up, the elim/envoy claim. Might have been trolling. might have been a mistake, but still rather dodgy. Then her insistance that "if she was an elim, Archer wouldnt have died."

There were just too many little comments and coincidences like this for me, so I voted accordingly.

It's no great secret now that I share a doc with Devo and Mat, and out of the two I'm getting a better village vibe from Devo. Mostly due to Mat's pushing that Striker is village even though he has spent the past two vote cycles trying to kill villagers alongside eliminators.

So, right now, my biggest suspicions are Striker, mostly for those highly dodgy looking last second voting habits.

Okie, thank you. I do agree that Illwei said a few things that made me think twice about her.

Like this exchange, for example :P

On 4/4/2022 at 4:53 PM, Amanuensis said:
On 4/4/2022 at 4:41 PM, Illwei said:
On 4/4/2022 at 3:52 PM, Matrim's Dice said:

“Don’t protect me” RIP

Need to reread D1 since most of it went over my head but a starting pool for me of [Devo, Bort, TJ, Baker] is probably accurate enough

You have to admit

 

It's funny

Spoken like a true psycho killer :ph34r:

I unironically felt that was her playing with us :P like "haha look how funny I am for killing Experience" without explicitly saying she did it :P

I still think Striker is Village, but since he's very much willing to die in a tie, y'all can make sure he's in a big one with like 2 or 3 other suspects tomorrow :D

Mat is... something. I still have mixed feelings about him, but Illwei did vote him, and Mat did vote Illwei, so... benefit of the doubt?

Idk. I'm obviously not privy to your doc and Devo's activity in there, but I'm really curious why she wants to live so badly. Villagers should be inherently suicidal like Kas, Striker, and I ^_^

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3 minutes ago, Bort said:

@Amanuensis - Why benefit of the doubt? Under most circumstances, this would be looked at as potential distancing.

It's definitely possible they decided to do something like Orlok/You/Me did in MR57 but very high-risk play, especially with the fact that ties result in multiple deaths. Voting now has a multiplicative amount of power which could wipe them all out in one round, so I feel like Mat would be concerned about that. Plus he 4th voted Illwei unprompted which... she could have told him to get her out of the game for long game credit, but I don't think I'd kill Mat tomorrow for that small possibilty. Better to look into other potential suspects first then revisit Mat if nothing else shakes out.

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Devo has brought up Tani potentially faking some kind of weird doc thing with Illwei/Baker, so maybe feel her out more. Personally, I think Tani is likely village? But I've been going light on the analysis so that's really a vibe thing, and she's not posted too much anyway. Sibling could use some prodding to get involved more / give thoughts, but I wouldn't vote them out just for being a low-impact new player. Araris might be someone to consider since they've mostly been hands-off this game other than interactions with you and Striker, who I'm village leaning currently, so not a wonderful look for him? Those four are kind of my poe right now based on D2 events, but I am fairly worried about there being a wolf among Kas, Shadow, and TJ. I wouldn't call them priorities for D3, but people should be keeping tabs on them just in case.

ED1T:

I'll probably (or at least try) to do a proper reads list / tier list by the end of this turn, but tbh no promises because I think I've done enough + don't have it in me to do much more. I have the utmost confidence in the village to figure things without me :D

Edited by Amanuensis
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9 hours ago, JNV said:
  • Tani votes Araris for not wanting empire reveal and not saying why
    • Even though this was already cleared up its a bit hm how Tani jumped straight to a vote without thinkinga bout time zones or bein gbusy or anything like that 
    • Then again might be me just annoyed about the reveal withotu consent thing again thats very very grrrrrrrrrrrr
  • Tani votes Baker for possibly using the wrong color
    • Ok look no ones actually explained this wasnt Baker only posting bread how do they use the wrong color of pictures of bread
    • Also this is just irrational at this point assumptions all over the place grrrrr
    • But grrr is not hmm and I cant see why evil Tani would want to flop around like this 
    • I think they might have an aura of evil yeah that makes sense actually not actually evil just very not good
  • Tani votse Illwei for coming clean about it and saying the reason
    • Ok so thisis the most grrrrrrrrrrrrrr thing Ive seen this game and theres been a lot of grrr things going on like the whole reason for the  vote was not expalining why then they explain why and you vote them its so grrr I cant even
    • But Illwei was evil so I dont really think Tanis evil for this its just really grrr

I don't think you understood.

I voted Araris because, in the doc, someone said they didn't want our empire revealed, and it was in Araris' color.

I voted Baker because, in the doc, someone used a color that wasn't theirs, and I thought it might have been Baker who said they didn't want our empire revealed, using Araris' color accidentally. (It was words, not pics of bread.)

I voted Illwei because, in the doc, someone said they didn't want our empire revealed and said why, and Illwei admitted to being the one to not want her empire revealed. She also gave a reason that I didn't really understand. (Since when was TMI bad for the village when the elims already had the info?)

Now is it clear?

 

Sorry, I'm being frustrated right now because I thought I already explained this.

Edited by Tani
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Trying to work out where Illwei was going with the 'Archer was bussed' claim which is probably an exercise in futility because reading posts tends to end badly for me when I don't focus on votes, but sure, lesgo, we can always try new things and fail badly at them.

Illwei insists that Archer was bussed:

On 4/6/2022 at 5:13 AM, Illwei said:

I don't believe that Archer died D1 without it being a bus. It's normally hard to get Archer exed at all imo.

Aman follows up on that line of inquiry to prompt for Illwei's views, and Illwei says this:

On 4/6/2022 at 5:22 AM, Illwei said:

I think it's strange that your first action into the day was to start looking directly at the cw

Doesn't really go anywhere and she half-walks it back after more prompting from Aman, but I guess the question is: is she positioning herself to look better if an Elim on the train flips? Or is she trying to see if she can get one of the Archer voters MLed? If so, who?

Because I've been redoing the vote analysis my in doc notes on a 'lazy af, not serious whatever' level, and just colouring in based on my credences, and this is what I get:

Quote

Archer (4): Kasimir, Amanuensis, shadow1, Devotary of Spontaneity

Which means I'm committed to either it being a pure train, or potentially (depending on my Devo thoughts which I'm still going back and forth about, but I sort of like what Mat has to say about in doc interactions with Devo), am left with the terrifying thought of asking myself if I really want to rethink Aman or Shadow :/

Either way, I don't feel like that's an exercise I immediately want to carry out and have been looking at the other trains, but this came up to me because of the Devo problem. Was this opportunistically sensing appetite to see if she can get me MLed? I feel like it takes a brave person to want to do that for Aman because that will be a hard fight to push on the supposition that V!Aman. She would have known from my dead doc that Aman was Evil in my MR but I think relying on increased paranoia from that game is a crapshoot. No idea what her thoughts on Shadow might be.

But then the other obvious question is if Illwei was trying to get Devo killed. (If so, V!Devo?) But she didn't - as far as I can see, she doesn't really want that either, because that's not where she's going. Devo was a bit of a CW and being discussed as a CW alongside Thaid, but that's not where Illwei's attention/set-up goes. Maybe she gauged there was enough Devo appetite she was hoping for a ML to go through? (It's a bit of a connection anyway, insofar as Archer potentially shielding/flagging Devo's response to Exp. Which is another distribution I should look at if I feel like it, since off the top of my head, the responses can be categorised into: [Vote], [Confusion], [Ignore] - eh I'll do it properly later I want to just post this and go get a cup of tea or a nap.)

But the issue with E!Devo is...again, what role is so worth protecting that an Elim team would favour saving Devo over Archer? We're back to the theory that Archer was bussed to save Devo, with the idea being the motivating factor was that Devo had a preferred role. But then what is it?

IDK why I just did this. Can someone who actually works with posts help me out here because I feel I just walked into this pit even though I knew there's a reason I don't do these things >>

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Hrm.

On 4/6/2022 at 2:05 AM, StrikerEZ said:

@Amanuensis Because I still don't know how to quote and switch pages and all that. I don't think I understand the way you were using openwolf about me on page 3. Isn't open wolfing openly admitting to being an elim? Unless I missed something, I definitely didn't do that. Unless you're mixing me up with Experience (and even then he turned out village, so that doesn't feel like an accurate use of the word openwolf to me)

Here's some quick and dirty reads based off of vague impressions I remember so far:

Conf town, clearly:

  Hide contents

JNV, The Baker, Tani, Amanuensis, shadow1

Totally wolf:

  Hide contents

Illwei, Devotary of Spontaneity, Araris Valerian

????

  Hide contents

The Sibling, Matrim's Dice, Bort, Orlok Tsubodai, TJ

Kasimir:

  Hide contents

Kasimir, because I can no longer easily read him since I have seen both of his recent elim games on the teammate side of things

First two categories are pretty self explanatory for what they mean. The ???? category is for any players where I have no opinion on them or didn't feel confident enough to put them in either of the other categories, but still have thoughts on (Think Bort is leaning village, leaning elim on Mat). And then there's Kas :P

Also, here's a new VC, since the one I got from Ash awhile ago is now outdated:

Matrim's Dice (2): Kasimir, Illwei
StrikerEZ (2): Araris Valerian, StrikerEZ
Devotary of Spontaneity (2):
Amanuensis, JNV
Illwei (2): The Baker, Tani

Yes, this is a vote on myself to create a 4 way tie :)

@StrikerEZ tell me about your reasons for the players in your conf town and totally wolf categories.

Just noticed Baker, Tani, and JNV are in the first, while Illwei, Devo, and Araris are in the second. I'm especially interested in your illwei read at the time

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10 hours ago, Amanuensis said:

NGL I'm kinda leaning toward 1 elim per doc rn. Mostly because I don't think Archer inviting openness was Disruptor motivated, whereas after Archer died, Illwei pushing no mass reveal was because she felt it would hurt them in some way. It didn't match up with the Neighborhood game Illwei, Shadow, and I played. I think she wanted to keep the information advantage.

Hmm, I was going to disagree because math (even if Archer's not wrong about math being a valid elim tell :P) but I'm not qualified to use probability in this case so it wouldn't be math, just instinct that tells me that 1 per doc is unlikely- but the Illwei point is valid, I like that. Pretty much that commits me to e!Bort which I'm honestly fine with :P. But then it means TJ/Orlok/maybe shadow is next and I like that less.

10 hours ago, Kasimir said:

 What's your current Shadow read, since you have play history? 

I know I'm not Aman, figured I'd mention this anyway- I was paranoid due to the Archer vote apparently being in her wolf meta, and then she stayed on Striker earlier, but Devo had a point in the doc that since Illwei was pushing the Archer bus theory that makes her feel better about shadow, and I kind of agree, but also Illwei knows how to distance and I could see her saying that with a train that isn't pure. Am leaning towards v!shadow but I'm not stuck on it.

9 hours ago, Kasimir said:

Based off the current state of my credences, if someone absolutely has to shoot someone in FRIENDS, please shoot me.

If shooting me helps you figure some stuff out, just go for it. I've already asked my doc mates to keep being bros and make sure each other has a fun game.

No, Kas, shooting you will not help figure anything out :P 

9 hours ago, Amanuensis said:

My preference is Devo obviously :P but would like people to weigh in before I accidentally ruin my kill streak with friendly fire :D

My preference is please don't, or I guess if you do I can stop repeating myself :P. Someone said (maybe Devo herself) that the only way she votes Archer instead of Thaid is if she has a better role than Archer (which doesn't make sense anyway, you can still vote Thaid in that situation) but since Illwei was the elim with a good role that implies that Devo is not the elim with a good role, tbh I don't see the elims valuing a doctor over a RBer and I doubt they have a Monk.

9 hours ago, Amanuensis said:

Bort is the other person in their doc and he also voted Illwei, so idk, I really do think he's just V!Bort right now. Granted I don't have the same TMI I did in MR57, but I just don't feel it; @Bort I'd very much like you to chime in tho, since you did help us kill Illwei. What led to you voting her anyway?

You have to remember that Bort voted Illwei before Illwei was in any danger at all and wasn't at EoD to do anything if he wanted to. So his Illwei vote isn't a reason to v read him, imo. Bort would be my choice for a shot- fits the 1 elim per doc theory as well. Next choice would be Sibling, but idk if there's any doc stuff that would make you not want to shoot them. I know in my doc we discussed the timing of Sibling's vote being right after Tani retracted from Illwei- basically, Illwei was in danger temporarily, and then the second she wasn't in danger anymore Sibling showed up to vote Devo.

5 hours ago, Bort said:

It's no great secret now that I share a doc with Devo and Mat, and out of the two I'm getting a better village vibe from Devo. Mostly due to Mat's pushing that Striker is village even though he has spent the past two vote cycles trying to kill villagers alongside eliminators.

So, right now, my biggest suspicions are Striker, mostly for those highly dodgy looking last second voting habits.

How does a comment from me lead to a village read on a different player entirely? You label this as my 'pushing' but I've said it maybe twice in the doc, my insistence on v!Devo can be called a push but certianly not this. You make no mention of Aman, who has been pushing v!Striker for longer and more than I have, I just echo his read that Striker is TWTBAW. I'm not set on it either, it's a lean, but I do feel like e!Striker would have... some amount of self pres instincts, when he's shown to have basically none :P 

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Carrying on with a read through, but posting both to make my game relevant post without cutting it too fine, and because the next post is a longer one from Kas, and I need a short break before looking at it.

Cycle Post Player Summary Vote Retractions Thoughts AI (perceived) Notable connections
D1 1 Ashbringer Writeup GM GM GM GM GM
D1 2 Thaidakar Comments on rules clarification joke and RP N/A N/A None Villager None
D1 3 Archer RP, votes on Thaidakar Thaidakar N/A Poke vote, NAI Eliminator Votes on Thaidakar
D1 4 Kasimir RP, asks Ashbringer if we can report our Empires, and those in them with us N/A N/A Question for GM PM? Why in thread. Seeking to provoke conversation on topic, but if so why? Believes views on it to be AI? Unsure None
D1 5 Experience Elantrian pronunciation comment N/A N/A None Villager None
D1 6 Archer Notes similarity of ruleset to one run by Devotary, jokes in response to Experience N/A N/A None Eliminator None
D1 7 Kasimir Joke to Ashbringer N/A N/A None NAI None
D1 8 Ashbringer Players can report their Empire, don't have to be honest GM GM GM GM GM
D1 9 Thaidakar Votes on Experience for Elantrian pronunciation comment Experience N/A Not out of observed character of Thaidakar Villager Votes on Experience
D1 10 Kasimir Who would lie about Empires given easy to verify? Votes on Thaidakar Thaidakar N/A Pressure vote on Thaid? Interesting target Unsure Votes on Thaidakar
D1 11 Thaidakar Asks why everyone is voting for him N/A N/A Slight overreaction? But neither vote explained Villager None
D1 12 Archer Is voting on Thaidakar because opening post read as classic elim N/A N/A Did it? Eliminator None
D1 13 Experience Votes on Archer Archer N/A On Archer's response to Thaid? Villager Votes on Archer
D1 14 Archer RP name N/A N/A NAI Eliminator None
D1 15 The Baker Picture of a cinnamon bun N/A N/A Cruel and tempting. Going to have difficulty reading Baker. Policy lynch if appropriate NAI None
D1 16 Devotary Her game has had divided doc mechanic snce 2018, signed up to run it before Ash decided on this game N/A N/A No comments on thinking about how mechanic useful Very mild elim None
D1 17 Experience Restates vote, in case Archer missed it being coloured red N/A N/A Wants vote not to be missed Villager Archer
D1 18 Ashbringer Each doc knows members within it GM GM GM GM GM
D1 19 Thaidakar Asks Archer why his opening post was classic elim, just wanted to introduce RP character. Comments on Baker's cinnamon bun N/A N/A Fair explanation Villager None
D1 20 Kasimir Complains about game's data consumption N/A N/A NAI None None
D1 21 Matrim Votes on Thaidakar Thaidakar N/A Why? Already can see how reacting under pressure, response not yielding information. Value of increasing pressure? Mild elim Votes on Thaidakar
D1 22 Ashbringer Reminds everyone that this isn't a faction game GM GM GM GM GM
D1 23 Archer Thinks Thaidakar making opening post about RP is suspicious N/A N/A Disagree. We're SE, not MU. Eliminator None
D1 24 Experience Points out Archer's own opening post was RP N/A N/A Correct observation Villager None
D1 25 Kasimir Jokes about MR7, and that we should focus on the Discovery faction. Makes joke referencing MR57 and Orlok N/A N/A Pretending we hadn't agreed to go for an Arelene only victory NAI Moderation best faction
D1 26 Thaidakar Doesn't think making opening post about RP is suspicious, agrees with Experience that Archer's comment is awkward in light of own RP N/A N/A Still voting on Experience Villager None
D1 27 Araris Claims House Urbain N/A N/A Check whether Araris displays sufficient paranoia NAI Kasimir, Renegade, Gamma Fiend, Newan
D1 28 Archer Suggests worst case is elims have a faction doc they aren't in, try to hamstring it by killing members. Thinks claiming closes info gap rather than exposing new information N/A N/A IKYK? Watch elim kills - targetting one house to give the impression of no sight in it? Eliminator None
D1 29 Thaidakar Joke response N/A N/A None Villager None
D1 30 Kasimir Discovery joke not meant for Archer. Is pro claiming factions, agrees with Archer's line of thought. Welcomes Araris to House Urbain N/A N/A Agree with claiming factions. See little reason not to. NAI None
D1 31 Matrim Doesn't think we should reveal Empires in case someone reveals knowledge they shouldn't have N/A N/A Disagree. Proposing it to allow for potential future knowledge, but at cost of interactions analysis. Seems very simple line of thinking. Trying to get village cred for making point contrary to emerging thread consensus? Mild elim None
D1 32 Kasimir Asks Matrim how we'd know an elim knows more than they should, if we don't know it N/A N/A Presumably reliant on members of doc player x has information about noticing they have information they shouldn't NAI Riposte to Matrim
D1 33 Thaidakar Notes Kas not GMing N/A N/A NAI Villager (Obviously) not e/e with Kas
D1 34 Matrim Responds to Kas. Knows who is in his doc. If someone outside his doc knows who is in doc, then that's weird N/A N/A Argument not even about information/thoughts from within doc, just members. Feels far less thought out than I'd expect from Matrim. Unsure AI Unsure None
D1 35 Ashbringer Has sent out all Empire docs GM GM GM GM GM
D1 36 Amanuensis Votes on Thaidakar Thaidakar N/A Pressure vote, but again, why? Doesn't directly maximise conversation - so to see what other's think about it/whether anyone tries to take pressure away from Thaid? Unsure. Possible information generating play - mild vil Votes on Thaidakar
D1 37 Thaidakar Asks Aman why he's voting on Thaid N/A N/A Fair question Villager None
D1 38 Amanuensis Voted on Thaid to fit in N/A N/A Joke, presumably NAI None
D1 39 Thaidakar Can't blame Aman for wanting to fit in, does so himself N/A N/A Seems accurate reflection of previous Thaid meta Villager None
D1 40 Kasimir Is hyper/delirious. Fundamentally disagrees with Matrim, ascribes low probability to information slips. Has formatted the Arelene doc. Praises God. N/A N/A Suspect post made after seeing Arelene doc membership - was also hyper there. Think difficult to project depth of emotion if not genuine. Moderate village Is in doc with TJ, Orlok, Shadow
D1 41 Amanuensis Thinks Kas might have broken, suggests he sleeps, and that we love him. Provides vote count, suggests wagon formation catches elims N/A N/A Agree that Kas broken, although it was a pleasure to see Kas so happy. Gut mild good Mild good None
D1 42 Kasimir Jokes to Aman, confesses love. Is going to get breakfast then sleep. N/A N/A Possibly needs a cold shower. NAI Aman
D1 43 Amanuensis Village reads Kasimir and Experience, lowest read Thaidakar. Everyone else in between in middle tier N/A N/A Still don't believe Thaidakar read genuine. Query. NAI V reads Kas, Experience
D1 44 Araris Votes on Devotary Devotary N/A No explanation, but believe it to be because Devotary didn't provide statements engaging with game. On reflection, recall similar behaviour from Devo in MR56 Very mild village Votes on Devotary
D1 45 Elbereth IM check in, RP IM IM IM IM IM
D1 46 Illwei Jokes about being in Roshar doc, is lonely N/A N/A None Eliminator None
D1 47 Amanuensis Until his Empire vote to reveal themselves, is going to step up as Teoish Emissary. Teoish Empire have five members, so are assuming one or two elims. Given 18 players, guesses four elims, so thinks one doc uncompromised, as thinks GM would enjoy village paranoia. Suggests other Emissaries step up and provide Empire numbers, as good enough D1 discussion topic N/A N/A Strong query - recall Aman has historically expressed dislike of D1 distribution speculation (including in QF59?). Mild gut dislike of Aman putting himself in position of authority - but always paranoid of thread control!Aman. Do like information transparency, which he is encouraging from others. Unsure Teoish Empire
D1 48 JNV Asks Ashbringer if we know which of five empires from the rules wasn't included, but comments that he doesn't think it makes a difference. Looks forward to seeing Kas' doc - has heard he's the fancy doc guy. Replies to Matrim. Doesn't think an elim would make a slip about knowing Empire membership. Has read game in Art of Game creation, remembers Ashbringer saying 0-2 eliminators per doc. Thinks no harm revealing and clears up people being linked because share an empire vs nefarious connections. Thinks Thaidakar more engaged than other games, but they're never consistent between games. RPs. N/A N/A If pro empire revealing, why not reveal his own Empire? Information can't be unrevealed, so if strong belief, then can act on it unilaterally. No thoughts on players - query thoughts on why Matrim would make suggestion. Makes very good point about doc links clarifying player links. Gut very mild village None
D1 49 Matrim Doesn't think anyone would slip on purpose, doesn't see benefit revealing when half the point of docs is that they're secret. Thinks possibility of elims slipping outweighs benefits of claiming. Thinks docs were true RNGd, doesn't think elims equally spread. Doesn't think we can clear people based on being in doc with one or two elims N/A N/A Vehemently disagree. Feels almost TWTBAW. Doesn't engage with JNV's point about doc membership helping with nature of links. Why working under assumption of RNGd docs? Admittedly possible, but reads as agenda pushing. Elims have information on doc membership already, whether whole or partial, therefore only secret to the village Gut moderate evil None
D1 50 StrikerEZ Jokingly suggests one elpire doc only elims, and that that elim might bus remainder and deepwolf. Votes on Thaidakar, because why not. Dislikes Aman and Matrim's points, can't decide whether they're suspicious Thaidakar N/A If dislike point on D1, vote worthy - no real case for voting for Thaidakar, can't see any thinking behind it. Worried about pressure from voting for one of them? Mild evil Dislikes points made by Aman and Matrim, votes Thaidakar
D1 51 Devotary Responds to Archer, works through elim knowledge of vil empire membership based on doc distribution. Replies to Matrim, points out docs probably already known to elims. Knowing who is in a doc less important than what is happening in it, so emissaries only make sense if others in doc willing to step up to correct misleading information. True RNG more likely to give an even distribution than Ash handpicking, but doesn't know what odds are of even distribution given RNG N/A N/A Why *wouldn't* doc members be willing to step up to correct emissary being misleading. Again engaging with mechanics of game, not player alignments. Hiding behind mechanical workings? Mild evil None
D1 52 Amanuensis Disagrees with Matrim that point of docs is to be secret. Identities were confirmed on entering. Thinks point of doc to replace PMs. Allows players to work together outside the thread, and keep eachother accountable in smaller circles. Doesn't think there's a pre-assigned point to the docs. For each empire to decide how to handle them internally. Thinsk Matrim's RNG assumption naive, if not intentionally misleading, as RNG could lead to every elim being in one doc or 2+ docs being elim free. Votes on Matrim, asks him to state five reasons (or as many as he can) why keeping empire rosters secret benefits the village. Wants to know where Matrim's thinking is coming from. Votes on Striker, asks him which of Matrim's points he dislikes, and which of Aman's points he dislikes, and whether either Matrim or Aman is suspicious for them. Reads list has Kasimir and Experience at top, then JNV, Archer, Illwei, Baker, non-posters, then Thaidakar, then Matrim and Striker Matrim, Striker Thaidakar Agree strongly with all of Aman's points - although think he's also not pointing out the obvious retort to secrecy identified by JNV, that docs are already less secret to elims. Get moderate read that Aman trying to solve. Moderate village See reads list
D1 53 StrikerEZ Replies to Matrim, disliked Matrim's post Aman quoted, for reasons Aman provided. Disliked Aman thinking one empire doc was definitely not compromised. Thought Aman was trying to set up a plan where faction eliminated, then elim claims faction and says they think the whole faction was village. Votes on Matrim as suspects him more than Aman, voted on Thaid because it was funny Matrim Thaidakar Strong dislike of parroting Aman, no original thoughts. Specifics of paranoia about Aman seem fabricated - immediately disproven by trye faction member of elim claiming that faction Moderate evil Votes on Matrim
D1 54 Ashbringer Vote Count GM GM GM GM GM
D1 55 Kasimir Remains hyper, has discarded plans to play game as RP!Philosopher!Kas or Araris!Kas because is Hyper!Kas. Loves JNV too. Wishes everyone a good time. Thinks Aman right suggesting four elims. Doesn't think we have sufficient sight of the distro. Thinks open question re docs being uncompromised - in LG7 uncompromised docs hit hardest, but elims will play mindgames with NK. Keeping anything about his Empire to internal discussion, doesn't feel right acting unilaterally. Suggests given four docs, 4-4-5-5 or 3-4-6-5 as possibilities. Thinks dispute over doc compromise is moot as can't assume and don't have enough distro information to work with. Positive gut on Aman, unnerved by speed of his reads list N/A N/A Sorry, Kas - haven't seen if you've been more open, but acting unilaterally myself on Arelene doc as see no value in secrecy. Think Aman's reads list less unnerving than appears, as fundamentally only ordering some players - appears more than it is. Find post difficult to read one way or the other Unsure Positive gut on Aman
D1 56 Bort RP. Questions Aman's vote being on Matrim not Striker in Ashbringer's vote count. Thinks makeup of each doc is for each empire to decide. If four empires, elims are either in four or three of the, so already know distro, so doesn't make a difference to share information. Slight suspicion that JNV's views on Kas doing up docs from elim doc not empire doc. Poke votes Tani Tani N/A Given views on elim information, mild disagreement with reluctance to unilterally share information to even information balance. Why poke vote? Unsure Votes on Tani
D1 57 Amanuensis Unvotes Striker for response. Restates vote on Matrim. Is of opinion that each Empire should be a democracy, support each faction sharing what they wish. 3/4ths of Teoish brethen voted for empire reveals, will leave them to claim allegiance in thread. Will be updating tierlist frequently, but might put players in positions that differ from actual views. Will leave final worldview each night incase of night kill. Puts Kasimir/Striker at top or readslist, then Experience/Archer, then JNV, Illwei, Baker, Sibling, Bort, Tani, Devotary, Araris, Orlok, Shadow, TJ, then Thaidakar/Matrim Matrim Striker Did not find Striker's response convincing in the slightest. Query what about it made Aman move him to the top? Belief that E!Striker would have responded in different manner? If so, how? States that he believes himself to be night kill target. Gut dislike of clearance of Striker. Do like playing games with read uncertainty. Dislike calling attention to self as nightkill target Mild evil/unsure Odd clearance of Striker
D1 58 Kasimir Asks Aman if given uncertainty in readslist, he intends to intervene if actual village read looks like they're going to be mislynched. Is aware of what Aman is doing and why, interested in extent of commitment to this. Devotary Thaidakar Can see why voting Devo from my own assessment, would have liked to see explanation from Kas Mild good Votes on Devotary
D1 59 Matrim Thinks docs replace PMs, has never seen a game where everyone claimed all PMs in thead. Responds to Aman callig RNG assumption naive or misleading. Thinks it could be naive - has had a hectic day, first time sitting down and thinking about game. Doesn't understand why it could be misleading. Thinks misleading implies secrecy option harmful, when anything achieved by open claiming can be achieved through emissaries. Isn't going to give five reasons for empire secrecy, as hasn't seen five reasons for publicising them. Isn't goign to ask for them, as doesn't think it worth going there. Thinks arguments both ways, but prefers to keep membership hidden. Thinks it funny that differing opinions on this is enough for a vote. Thinks it odd that Aman is voting for him for suggesting a level of sharing having said he supports each faction in sharing as much as they want. Gives thoughts on gamestate. Voted Thaid as a joke, and because he doesn't think Thaid has cared so much about votes before. Change in playstyle might equal change in alignment. LIkes Aman's approach to the game so fat. Thinks Striker's vote reads like opportunistic elim Striker. Archer/Thaid not e/e. N/A N/A Post feels defensive. Response to Aman is on technicalities, not on providing a reason for secrecy beyond "elims might slip". Thinks Aman is being uncharitable with reading Aman, yet likes how Aman is approaching the game - inconsistency? Vote on Thaid, and Thaid/Archer not e/e might be limited defence of Archer. Sense of frustration from post. Unsure if alignment indicative. Logic on Thaidakar is odd - Thaidakar was asking about votes which hadn't had a reason provided. Matrim was third vote on Thaidakar. Mild evil Suspicious of Striker, Archer/Thaid not e/e, doesn't vote on Aman
D1 60 JNV Wrote program doing randomised elim distribution within factions. Thinks if true RNG then most likely 0, 1, 1, 2. Knows of Kas's doc skills from a dead doc. Asks Matrim for his empire's thoughts on sharing their membership. Could see e!Thaidakar but they tend to be more engaged C1, and dislikes way votes arrived on them. Looks at Thaidakar progression. Doesn't think Thaidakar is evil, particularly given no one else protesting the votes on them. Doesn't have suspicions except Matrim for tonal response to Aman N/A N/A Making very considerable effort. Program makes big assumption re RNG though, but interesting to see conclusion given assumptions. Like thinking about Thaidakar. Mild good Defends Thaidakar
D1 61 Experience Posts in character. Claims Teod Empire. Thinks we should all tell which Empire we're from. Claims to be emissary of disruptors. N/A N/A High effort. Agree with thinking on sharing empires. Missed Disruptor claim at first pass. Now known village, but not sure why he's claiming it Villager Teoish Empire
D1 62 Kasimir Doesn't think doc distribution is pure RNG. RNG results have to be allowed or annulled by a GM. From GM perspective one elim per doc is great as no doc can coordinate without elim infiltration. Also something good about uninfiltrated docs - village paranoia, and elim fog of war. We don't know which world we're in, so can't take an elim in a doc as a clear. Do not have enough information to say prima facie which world we're in, not included to further engage with distribution inferences. SHould be able to draw less tenuous conclusions by C3 from flips. N/A N/A Makes sensible points, not alignment indicative NAI None
D1 63 Ashbringer Vote Count GM GM GM GM GM
D1 64 Devotary Doesn't think emissary can be objective, thinks we'll end up with members of empires contradicting their emissary, or everyone in doc voting on emissary's wording. Votes on Experience for claiming elim. Experience N/A Not actually sure how idea of emissaries became so useful, or what their function actually is. To tell us anything useful about their faction, they'll have to reveal faction members regardless. Hadn't spotted Experience's claim until this point. Opportunistic vote on a joke? Might believe Experience msunderstood game? Villager Votes on Experience
D1 65 The Baker Votes on Thaidakar. Provides picture of mouldy bread. Thaidakar N/A Going to struggle with understanding The Baker if no reasoning for votes continues Unsure Votes on Thaidakar
D1 66 Kasimir Replies to Devotary with examples of villagers making elim claims in RP or as a gambit N/A N/A Sensible Given v!Experience, mild village Defence of Experience
D1 67 Experience Is doing as Kas suggested N/A N/A Fair, but was a potentially derailing action Villager None
D1 68 Devotary Responds to Kas, says each example listed had a reason, Experience hasn't done anything like it before, setting up an IKYK that should be resolved directly N/A N/A Very narrow reading of Experience. Agenda driven? Mild evil Pushing Experience
D1 69 Kasimir Has filed Experience as a high chaos player, with high risk threshold. Doesn't see claim as odd for that sort of player. Doesn't think it's even an IKYK. Squinting at Devotary's post N/A N/A Possible that confident in v!reading Experience because TMI, but honestly see it as just a sensible read. Mild village Defence of Experience
D1 70 Illwei Likes JNV. Thinks Araris village, Matrim village. Thinks anyone claiming elim should be ignored. N/A N/A Now known evil. Village read on Matrim notable, but risky if e/e. Eliminator Araris/Matrim village
D1 71 Tani Replies to Bort's poke vote, wanted to say something cool, doesn't know what to say. N/A N/A None NAI None
D1 72 Illwei Thinks Tani either village or e/e with Bort N/A N/A Unsure Eliminator Tani either village or e/e with Bort
D1 73 Araris Replies to Illwei, says you can just kill people claiming Eliminator, to force everyone to ignore them N/A N/A Possible joke response? Doesn't vote on Experience - indeed is still voting on Devotary. Hasn't offered much thinking Gut mild village None
D1 74 Bort Humours Tani, retracts poke vote, poke votes on Shadow. Shadow Tani Dislike self-admitted poke votes, think they achieve very little Very mild elim Poke votes Shadow
D1 75 Araris Dislikes poke votes, may have to stab vote Bort if he persists with them. Asks if anyone has any appetite for voting on Devotary, or if not Bort or Tani N/A N/A Bort/Tani odd choices, hasn't given reasoning yet for Devotary vote, interesting that pushing it. Implied disregard of Experience's claim (as I think is sensible). Unsure Pushes for votes on Devotary, Bort or Tani
D1 76 Kasimir Asks Bort whether he's trying to kill Tani (or Shadow?) or get her to post. Replies to Araris. Has weak negative gut read on Bort, has already joined on Devotary, would favour Devotary over Bort N/A N/A Reference to the best SE post of all time, presumably. Interesting negative gut on Bort - behaviour different to the MR - assesses as Bort's response to the MR? Very weak mild village None
D1 77 StrikerEZ Votes on Devotary, is exhausted, won't be around for long but will be around at rollover Devotary Matrim No explanation for coming off Matrim onto Devotary. As an aside, not sure why people feel need to comment on being around at rollover. Why is participation there more important than elsewhere in game? Mild evil Votes on Devotary, retracts on Matrim
D1 78 Experience Asks Striker whether he has a reason for the vote, comments that if people reasoned their votes this wouldn't have to be asked the whole time N/A N/A I like you, Experience. Villager Asks Striker to justify his vote
D1 79 Kasimir Says Experience should reflect on his actions, having RPd as an elim without comment N/A N/A Joke NAI None
D1 80 Experience Claims reason for elim RP forthcoming, asks for patience N/A N/A Not going to engage here Villager None
D1 81 Bort Replies to Araris disliking poke votes, pulls out LG75 post from Araris poke voting on Tani N/A N/A Effort to find post from a year ago, in game Bort didn't play. Odd thing to search for. Suspect situation difference Mild evil None
D1 82 Kasimir Notes double standard from Experience asking for reasons on votes, but withholding reason for his elim RP N/A N/A Situation feels slightly different - post reasoning important in thinking, this is either a gambit or RP, with thinking promised to come NAI None
D1 83 Experience Admits contradicting self, isn't going to give own reason yet, so voters without reason should feel free to stay silent N/A N/A Just odd at this stage. Gambit so obviously a gambit, that he thinks is worth not pressuring vote reasons for? Villager None
D1 84 Kasimir Thinks Experience's claim looks like bait. Thinks Devotary's response too rigid, wonders if a failed projection from e!Devo of villager response to RP elim claim. THinks history of such claims with regards to RP, from player of Experience's profile should give anyone pause. If Devo does think it's an e!Exp gambit, doesn't see it winning trust. Just gets a squint. What's point from e!Exp's perspective? Devotary's vote just doesn't feel right. Asks Experience why he singles Striker out for his vote without explanation, not Araris N/A N/A Strong sense of mindmeld on thinking re Experience's claim and Devo's response. Mild village Suspicious of Devotary
D1 85 Experience Didn't notice Araris' vote, Striker voted so asked him in response N/A N/A Not going to second guess this Villager None
D1 86 Matrim Apologises for being disengaged. Thinks Experience's claim is NAI as was devised in their empire doc, and Aman is in that Empire doc. Got a village feel from explanations N/A N/A Can't remember seeing anything about claim being devised in Empire doc?    
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