Long Game 84: A Sel United

[Bort]

Morning all. Sorry I wasn't about yesterday. I've been stupidly busy sorting out the new career and operating on about 6 hours sleep per night. I've had a chance to check in with the thread once or twice, but I have no idea who to be suspicious of right now.

I'll try to do some analysis sometime today but limited braining available means it's not looking good. Hopefully tomorrow after more sleep.

[Araris Valerian]

Okay, let’s start with the votes on Thaidakar.

Kas: Leaning village, stacking 2 elim votes early is odd, creating pressure is good

Mat: This vote would be elimmy if Thaidakar was elim, but he wasn’t. So it’s just null. He does later make a comment that Archer/Thaid is not e/e, which seems like a village call. Vote on Bort feels weird.

Aman: Same as Mat. Later Archer vote on him makes him look villageish, wouldn’t put it past Archer/Aman to distance/bus though.

Striker: Same, except he mentions disagreeing with Mat and Aman, which seems off when voting alongside them. I sort of like his move to Mat after. Not sure an elim would place a 4th (or whatever it was) vote on someone and then retract quickly, saying it was a joke. Not sure why he switched to Devo. Seems undercommitted to votes?

Okay, then there is the Bort/Tani thing. Like I said, my gut is slightly on village Bort, and I’m not a fan of how Tani had an opportunity to engage but didn’t. I know Tani lives in the lurker zone, but at the very least that is unhelpful to the village.

TJ doesn’t look great, especially if Striker is elim.

I like that Shadow agrees with me about poke votes not doing anything .

I’m thinking if Devotary were elim she would have followed Mat onto Thaid. Unless Mat is also elim.

So for now I’ll go on Striker. Not only is he suspicious in his own right, he has interactions with Mat, Devo, TJ, and Aman that are all interesting.

[Mat]

54 minutes ago, Araris Valerian said:

Mat: This vote would be elimmy if Thaidakar was elim, but he wasn’t. So it’s just null. He does later make a comment that Archer/Thaid is not e/e, which seems like a village call. Vote on Bort feels weird.

You're probably village for not reading my D1 voting as elim xD

[StrikerEZ]

Araris Valerian. I have been waiting for someone to come up with faulty reasoning on me, and he fits the bill. I’ve been trying to act weird to see if I could get someone to bite for the “easy exe” that is me at all times.

[Mat]

6 minutes ago, StrikerEZ said:

Araris Valerian. I have been waiting for someone to come up with faulty reasoning on me, and he fits the bill. I’ve been trying to act weird to see if I could get someone to bite for the “easy exe” that is me at all times.

If you’re trying to act suspicious, is it hard to believe a villager will read you as suspicious? :P.

Araris isn’t the first person to mention suspicion on you, either.

[Quivil]

Araris Valerian didn't want me to tell y'all who was in the Rose Empire and didn't say why. I asked about eleven hours ago.

[StrikerEZ]

1 hour ago, Matrim's Dice said:

If you’re trying to act suspicious, is it hard to believe a villager will read you as suspicious? :P.

Araris isn’t the first person to mention suspicion on you, either.

Okay maybe I phrased it in a weird way. It wasn’t that I was just trying to look suspicious, it’s that I was trying to do it in specific ways that I thought only elims would bite. Things that others could see and not necessarily think suspicious while elims might see it and see me as an easy target.

[Kasimir]

29 minutes ago, StrikerEZ said:

Okay maybe I phrased it in a weird way. It wasn’t that I was just trying to look suspicious, it’s that I was trying to do it in specific ways that I thought only elims would bite. Things that others could see and not necessarily think suspicious while elims might see it and see me as an easy target.

You don't need to do that, Shield of the Lynch. Just act normal bro

Edited April 5, 2022 by Kasimir
justification

[Araris Valerian]

38 minutes ago, Tani said:

Araris Valerian didn't want me to tell y'all who was in the Rose Empire and didn't say why. I asked about eleven hours ago.

I was asleep 11 hours ago, and haven't checked the doc until just recently. Whoever typed that was using my color inappropriately/accidentally (or I just have terrible memory). I'm in favor of sharing identities, since the elims probably know everything anyways.

 

1 hour ago, StrikerEZ said:

Araris Valerian. I have been waiting for someone to come up with faulty reasoning on me, and he fits the bill. I’ve been trying to act weird to see if I could get someone to bite for the “easy exe” that is me at all times.

I'm not sure how your last-minute vote on Thaid is "deliberate weirdness". It's just flat-out incriminating, given Archer's flip. 

[Mat]

5 minutes ago, Araris Valerian said:

I'm not sure how your last-minute vote on Thaid is "deliberate weirdness". It's just flat-out incriminating, given Archer's flip. 

Why do you differentiate my vote from Striker's? His being 'flat-out incriminating' and mine being 'just null' doesn't make sense to me considering they accomplished the same thing. I mean, sure, Striker's was a lot more blatant but mine actually counted for the VC  

 

[Araris Valerian]

1 minute ago, Matrim's Dice said:

Why do you differentiate my vote from Striker's? His being 'flat-out incriminating' and mine being 'just null' doesn't make sense to me considering they accomplished the same thing. I mean, sure, Striker's was a lot more blatant but mine actually counted for the VC  

Archer wasn't a candidate when you voted.

[Mat]

2 minutes ago, Araris Valerian said:

Archer wasn't a candidate when you voted.

I had two Thaid votes in the cycle- the first was when Archer didn't have votes, yeah, but I'm fairly certain that Archer, Devo, and Thaid were all about equal when I changed from Bort back to Thaid since I remember thinking that since Thaid was the viable option I liked the best I should vote there :P.

Dunno why I'm clarifying this but here you go xD

[Quivil]

34 minutes ago, Araris Valerian said:

I was asleep 11 hours ago, and haven't checked the doc until just recently. Whoever typed that was using my color inappropriately/accidentally (or I just have terrible memory). I'm in favor of sharing identities, since the elims probably know everything anyways.

Ok. Araris. Sri.

People in the Rose Empire: Striker, Araris, Baker, Illwei, me. Striker and Araris gave vocal support Baker said lots of bread. Illwei hasn't said anything about it yet. Baker has previously used the wrong color and was corrected. I think it was probably Baker who misused Araris's color. @The Baker ?

Edited April 5, 2022 by Tani

[Kasimir]

6 minutes ago, Tani said:

Ok. Araris. Sri.

People in the Rose Empire: Striker, Araris, Baker, Illwei, me. Striker and Araris gave vocal support Baker said lots of bread. Illwei hasn't said anything about it yet. Baker has previously used the wrong color and was corrected. I think it was Baker who misused Araris's color.

Yeah, had worked that out. This is why this was interesting to me - you guys seem to be currently having a great deal of internal suspicion and I wanted to ask if there has been internal doc events or spicy stuff going down, because from the looks of it, you and Striker were on Araris, Illwei and you and Striker are in Baker's suspicions...

I'm still not able to ethically reveal who is in Malkier but this also confirms my thoughts on Mat's final docmate.

Edited to add: Actually you know what, soddit. Unless Mat's doc is also uncompromised, this is already known.

Malkier is Arelene, with Shadow, me, Orlok, and TJ. This is why insanely hyper Kas appeared because I was insanely thrilled to be in a doc with my bros and to get to discuss and chill. TJ is Malkier #2, whom I'm now paranoiding on. Orlok is Malkier #3, who I policy Village read for now and who I'm worried has pocketed me with some AoE discussion (and it turns out that Shadow is really into AoE2 too, so she's amazing  )

Edited April 5, 2022 by Kasimir
grammar

[---]

5 minutes ago, Tani said:

Ok. Araris. Sri.

People in the Rose Empire: Striker, Araris, Baker, Illwei, me. Striker and Araris gave vocal support Baker said lots of bread. Illwei hasn't said anything about it yet. Baker has previously used the wrong color and was corrected. I think it was probably Baker who misused Araris's color. @The Baker ?

it was me, I commented in the doc but it doesn't matter once people start claiming

but you can judge tmi if people didn't claim

[Mat]

4 minutes ago, Kasimir said:

I'm still not able to ethically reveal who is in Malkier but this also confirms my thoughts on Mat's final docmate.

I was able to work out your docmates, but my doc and yours are probably the only ones that can work all of them out.

1 minute ago, Illwei said:

but you can judge tmi if people didn't claim

This is what I was arguing in D1, yes :P. That went out the window.

Edited April 5, 2022 by Matrim's Dice

[Kasimir]

Just now, Matrim's Dice said:

I was able to work out your docmates, but my doc and yours are probably the only ones that can work all of them out.

I've just gone ahead and revealed it. In my view, I don't fancy the odds that both our docs are uncompromised.

TJ was anti-reveal, FYI. He felt that it was tempting the Elims to hit us if we were all Village.

[Quivil]

32 minutes ago, Illwei said:

it was me, I commented in the doc but it doesn't matter once people start claiming

but you can judge tmi if people didn't claim

Illwei Baker

Thanks for telling that it was you

[Kasimir]

God forgive me.

Ashbringer, forgive me.

El, forgive me.

Kasimir

TJ @|TJ|

Bhai, I really want you to be Village. I really want nothing more than to chill in our doc together and be bros and discuss.

In theory, you not knowing the name of the Elim faction looks good. There was a slight GM PM reference you made I don't want to talk about because I think El will get grumpy at me if I do, although it would nudge me towards thinking you are Village. But I'm also wary of derpclears, I don't know the context of you being confused about the Elim faction name actually counts as derping, and as a GM, I absolutely would tell my Elims what a Village GM PM looks like because any player using that deserves to get hurt. (And it's against the rules now anyway, pretty sure.)

I don't like that Thaid vote that much, given we had been wondering if it was AI or not and I told you about the complaints Thaid generated in the MR. I feel like any player who played MR57 should also have noticed Thaid is actively changing his playstyle slowly :/ I noticed, anyway.

I know you were leaning anti-reveal in the doc. I don't know if that's a E!TJ or a V!TJ thing.

I don't know if this is a strong reason to vote you. I don't know what to believe anymore, bhai. I don't want to go near the Devo/Bort mess again because my brain is just going to scream and re-enter "delenda est" mode and I'm kind of done with getting frustrated about it and no take-up. I don't want you to be Evil bhai. I really don't :/ And I thought knowing you is supposed to make it easier for me to read you but all it's making me do is go around in circles this game because I don't want you to be Evil and I don't want Orlok to be Evil and I don't want Shadow to be Evil but what are the odds? I can't afford to make that assumption. And what I want doesn't matter. It doesn't matter if I want to believe beautiful lies because that wanting doesn't make them true. (And now part of me traitorously notices that Archer hated it when both Aman and I said upfront that we were working on the operating assumption our docs were clean because it sucks to interact with someone doing the Urbain Inquisition. Does that imply [Edited to add: at least] one uncompromised doc? Probably. Can I assume it's ours, based off what we know? Do I get to? :/)

So I dunno. Can I assess you objectively right now? Honestly no because all I have is my heart wanting you to be Village and it was so powerful it overrode everything in LG83. Is it a mistake to even try? Maybe. But I guess that's what the thread is for.

I don't think you're in danger right now but I'll say this - bhai, if I'm mistaken, @ me in the thread or doc I don't really care. I don't want to kill V!TJ :/ I really don't. But I think I need to at least open this line of discussion.

You said in the doc you could explain your thought process behind your vote but it went too close to MR57 spoiler territory and you forgot Orlok was there. Is there a way you can explain this without invoking MR57?

Edited April 5, 2022 by Kasimir

[---]

Tani choosing to focus in on this today is most likely E!indicative.

[Araris Valerian]

1 hour ago, Matrim's Dice said:

I had two Thaid votes in the cycle- the first was when Archer didn't have votes, yeah, but I'm fairly certain that Archer, Devo, and Thaid were all about equal when I changed from Bort back to Thaid since I remember thinking that since Thaid was the viable option I liked the best I should vote there :P.

Yeah, I just realized how unclear I was. My post is largely referring to the initial bandwagon on Thaid.

[Amanuensis]

41 minutes ago, Illwei said:

Tani choosing to focus in on this today is most likely E!indicative.

Idk, my instincts say Tani is Village for it, but it depends if she felt like she had to bring it up to shield a teammate.

I'm down to vote TJ. Their D1 vote was classic save dying teammate and I've yet to see anything that leads me to believe he's Village this game. Mat's trying a bit more so I'll give him some more room to work, regardless of his alignment.

Despite Araris voting Striker (and Striker baiting with his posts, which I approve of as a gambit from either alignment :p), my current read of the situation is V/V. Will say it's possible that E!Araris came around on Bort since it didn't seem like that misyeet was taking off, but I do feel Araris is pure this game? He seems more straightforward and honest (less intentionally evil) if that makes sense? Idk people tbh I'm just trying to have a chill game and go light on the analysis and follow my heart.

PoE rn is something like <TJ, Devo, Illwei, Mat, Baker>.

I don't love Illwei's pop-ins tbh. I'm very surprised she hasn't done any tiered readslists or any real solving. Just little comments here and there. Idk if it's cause IRL stuff but I don't feel Illwei's heart is in the game. I hope that changes soon, regardless of her alignment.

I'm probably wrong about someone I'm village leaning tho. I always worry that one of the more active players is elim and nudging the village in the wrong direction, but rn that's basically just Kas, which I'm not willing to entertain yet. It should be clear if he's elim eventually.

 

[Mat]

1 minute ago, Amanuensis said:

I'm down to vote TJ. Their D1 vote was classic save dying teammate and I've yet to see anything that leads me to believe he's Village this game. Mat's trying a bit more so I'll give him some more room to work, regardless of his alignment.

Wasn't TJ's vote made before Archer's train had any ground? I think out of the PoE TJ would be my last choice, for this reason.

[Amanuensis]

Spicy if true, but it could have pre-emptive. I'm confident that TJ's vote came after my wall to Archer and... wasn't TJ's early posts sorta pro Archer?

I personally believe an elim would more likely sheild a teammate when they don't believe their death is a foregone conclusion, otherwise they'd get found shortly after. By the time the Archer yeet gained enough ground, most elims would probably go for the bus. So if anything, I need to go back to reread D1 (ew backreading), but you pointing that out makes me more sus of TJ, not less.

[Kasimir]

10 minutes ago, Amanuensis said:

Idk people tbh I'm just trying to have a chill game and go light on the analysis and follow my heart.

This is where I'm at now, but my heart is compromised because today all it wants is for you, TJ, and Orlok to all be Village, and I don't think I'm capable of rational evaluation anymore ¯\_(ツ)_/¯

1 minute ago, Amanuensis said:

Spicy if true, but it could have pre-emptive. I'm confident that TJ's vote came after my wall to Archer and... wasn't TJ's early posts sorta pro Archer?

Very sure it did:

Partly remembered only because I was going on about my Devo/Bort thoughts in the doc, TJ came in after that, just as I'd said I was going off to play AoE2 with Wyrm and Orlok, and that means he started on the thread and his views after your Archer post. He did comment he was mildly v-reading Archer prior to your post (not in doc, in thread), though he gave no indication of that in the doc - his V reads were Striker, JNV, and yourself, just from reading the thread. He did comment early in the doc that he felt I was V, but that has to do with potential early doc walls of Hyper Kas screaming in joy about being in a doc with my bros ¯\_(ツ)_/¯

P.S. Gonna say it's clear for whoever is arguing about distro that some nudging was made. Doesn't tell us anything about which doc is where but I think it's no accident the hyperdiscussers are split up, and the new players are all separated. I still don't feel confident in making any projections in the current state of our ignorance, but it's worth noting that anyone claiming raw RNG is likely mistaken.

Not going to do deep backreading because I don't feel like it, and that's the point of this cycle for me.