Long Game 84: A Sel United

[Experience]

1 minute ago, The Sibling said:

Hi! Sorry I haven't posted. I just had a very busy weekend, and this just slipped my mind. I finished my swimming lesson a little while ago, and that was the last thing that was happening this weekend or this week, so now I am ready to do this. I read through all the stuff, and my first thoughts are that Devo and Aman are the most suspicious. Anyways, sorry about not voting. Tomorrow I will be so totally into this.

Have you got any reasons for why you think Devo and Aman looks suspicious?

[Kasimir]

4 hours ago, Matrim's Dice said:

• Kas- As I mentioned, I think his late switch from Devo to Archer is villagery. That is, unless you're right about the first thing I quoted, and Devo's elim, so idk. Village for now.

Slight alarms going off in my head as the paranoid part of me thinks you know Devo's flip and want to try to get a free drive-by ML off it :|

Given how hard I've been gunning for Devo, to the point of actively calling for an airstrike on myself or being okay with a lynch on myself if this will convince people to flip Devo on the basis that my Village flip should give people concrete data on what a Village response to Exp looks like, are you still pushing this narrative?

4 hours ago, Amanuensis said:

I feel that Bort has a somewhat more noticeable carefree confidence in this game that he lacked in MR57?

Here's the issue. My issue with Bort comes from something he did that he also did in LG12 (Evil), LG83 (Evil), and I've specifically pointed out that he adopted this method of an opening game in LG83 (Evil), not in QF59 (Village), and in MR57 (Evil). Now, where I could be tunnelling is that I read his responses as being fundamentally disingenuous rather than being amused, or whatever tone you and Araris get off him, and I see that same disingenuousness at work in his MR57 C3 defense. Perhaps this is how Bort defends; I genuinely don't know. I keep mentioning I might be tunnelling because if you don't remember, that's what I did in LG15b.

I picked that one thing (Creccio wanting discussion but not brokering it) and went ham on the Creccio ML. To be fair, you and STINK joined me, but nevertheless, that happened. In LG12, I nearly did that to Orlok, only the one thing was Orlok wanting to focus on the third party conversion faction, or at least discuss them. In AG7, I focused on - I don't remember what, but I know it was a one thing that got me tunnelling so hard on Orlok I had to take a few stunned moments to process and get a drink to deal with the fact he had credibly claimed to me to be a neutral D2. I know I have gotten better at avoiding that one thing but if you ask me right now if I can swear to Adonalsium that I am not in fact doing the one thing again, then no, I'm not that confident.

In light of that, while I rationally accept I could be frustrated and locked into a tunnel, and I respect that you and Araris have tonal reads on him, I disagree strongly. The fact that I'm this set on Evil Bort to the point of not asking whether Mat's willingness to vote Bort (if Mat is Evil) is indicative likely points to the fact I'm so damned frustrated I'm just no longer able to think rationally on this issue.

I accept there's no appetite for this push; I will reserve the storming right to yell "I told you so goddamnit" if I'm right because otherwise there's no point in being right.

I low key hope to get NKed before you because then at least I can throw up my hands in the dead doc without having to deal with any of this or think about it for the rest of the game.

4 hours ago, Amanuensis said:

Otherwise I kinda wonder if Mat's stubborn opinion was affected by Archer's pro Empire reveal opinion. Like @Kasimir you like to do those fancy sigma groupings or whatever where you group people based on things they support and then analyzed who the most likely elim in each grouping is, yeah? What do you think the odds are of Mat doing a kind of pseudo distancing thing by taking the opposite stance of Archer without having a particularly good reason for it, just to make it seem like they weren't both pushing elim agenda?

I'm not doing a grouping. I'm sorry but also not actually sorry - my headspace is currently very colonised and I don't feel like doing one. I also don't really think I can evaluate the odds of Mat being an Elim by the opposite stance of Archer because that's not how my grouping system works. I don't look for these things specifically - I generate the groupings then look for anomalies.

4 hours ago, Amanuensis said:

Oof wait I'm confused. @Kasimir what's wrong I don't understand this response rn

It's fine bro. I'm just done, but I have every faith in the Village that everyone else can carry on, do the analysis, and we'll be fine without me <3

38 minutes ago, Amanuensis said:

I'd seriously like you/Kas to consider the implications and judge the other members of your Empire with this interaction in mind, since it might be a good lead to finding another elim.

Sigh.

[---]

I don't appreciate exp enough

[Kasimir]

7 minutes ago, Kasimir said:

In AG7, I focused on - I don't remember what, but I know it was a one thing that got me tunnelling so hard on Orlok I had to take a few stunned moments to process and get a drink to deal with the fact he had credibly claimed to me to be a neutral D2.

For @Elbereth's sake as she's still cackling in my DMs:

Spoiler

Mouse was me. Gorilla was Orlok.

Edited to add: Oh yeah, there was Falcon. My one thing: why did you trust a rando Mistborn Lurch claim holy chull why. So I am aware it happens but that does not help me decide whether I am in one or not and doing the one thing or not.

Edited April 4, 2022 by Kasimir

[Amanuensis]

That's perfectly fair Kas, I could be wrong about Bort and you could be right. That is a very consistent trend you've pointed out and I am considering it. Ultimately, I think the best thing we can do is @Bort and ask; hey man, what do you think about the game now that Archer got flipped elim D1?

ED1T:

But yeah, also, 100% agree with the "I'd rather die right and lose than live right and ignored" mentality I feel that in my bones <3

Edited April 4, 2022 by Amanuensis

[JNV]

Ok wow good job did not expect that let me examine what happened

So heres C1 thoughts

 Matrim just sorta realized the empire point once shadow said it but like I said basically the same thing and they didnt get it was it my poor grammar that confused you or something so nto really suspicious but grrr

So Devotarys reaction to the Experience evil claim was a bit strong maybe Im biased cause Im in Experiences empire so I was told about the plan in advance but while claiming elim isnt necessarily a villagery thing to do its not an evil thing to do its just... not smart and being wrong doesnt mean evil automatically and honestly being wrong kinda feels very very very mild good to me cause elims are tryin gto be trusted and stuff and seem credible but claiming elim just sort of undoes that so hmm for that solid hmm maybe even hmmm

So about the Bort thing I could see it but also think its plausible that they just read an old game or something to learn all the terms they didnt know or something recently or that like they siad they looked something up like maybe they did research so theyd stop having to ask about stuff who knows I dont like to make assumptios about what people do nd do not know specially when I dont know the person too well but I definitely think the Araris suspicion is not founded on reasonable grounds 

And yeha I can definitely see why Archer was voted off that post... man thats a kinda misrepresetnation of the empire doc there and just general hmmm ness going on if there was bussing on there it would be hard to tell the difference just cause theres so much to critique on there also they kinda just spilled our identities the open to reveal thin gwas more of a 'we go when we want' consent thing so that was kinda rude 

TJs vote on Thaidakar seems kinda opportunistic 

The kasimir thoughts under the spoiler seem like good thoughts but then again my brain is easily convinced by chains of long pretty words (also known as sentences) but then again I really agree with their Devotary points less sure about their Bort poinst but I feel like tehir definitely coming from a position of good one of my strongest reads you are a cool guy and you just ninjad me with a post with more data about Bort maybe I could come  around to that let me look into things then get back to you

And Shadow comes in with a wowza post I dont necessarily think the elim empire distribution is 100% random  not necessarily handpicked but probably adjusted so it doesnt end up with the 4 elim empire sorta situation or three rolls see which one looks the nicest and also you misspelled my name like its three letters come on but ok ok not really suspicious just a type and also thanks for the perfect example of why I dont really think poke votes do anything whatsoever how is someone suposed to be motivated to post by a ping if theyre offline besides how does the vote help any more than just pinging them to ask them thoughts until theyre already looking you cant preview unless you have email notifs for pings and thats off by default and it just encourages people to say 'hey im here' and have that be that and thats grr but anyway getting off topic 

Devotarys late vote could read a bus didnt really say much just sort of implied evil Amanuensis too and its kinda weird

And yeah Strikers vote is just always going to look bad in any world even if it didnt quite count thats... yeah

 

Ok now for night thoughts

So experience did indeed gambit and their questions could see mweird to the ignorant eye but as a person in the same empire wow they are a trooper they made like 6 pages of analysis all on their own seriously impressive they posted the conclusions a bit above but the exteneded cut was great

Oh and Experience, Kasimir is saying that you arent addressing their points about how obvious it was you were lying. Like it was very obvious and I know Im in your empire but man. 

And Kasimir, I read your thoughts I agree on Devotary that reaction seems a bit hmm on Bort was less confident now slightly mroe confident with all these nice data points thanks for the nice data I will gobble gobble the data like super turkey and yeah  Icoud see it would rathe go Devotary first then Bort but either way feels pretty good you feel pretty good thanks 

There havve been like a bajillion ninjas since I started this post If there are more thne oh well 

Oh and @The Baker while I respect your determination to post in only pictures of bread could you possibly use whatever thing you used to generate the 'im in' bit from your signup post to generate bread letters of game thoughts? And if you dont want to thats fine but its just... grrr

[Kasimir]

57 minutes ago, Amanuensis said:

I'd seriously like you/Kas to consider the implications and judge the other members of your Empire with this interaction in mind, since it might be a good lead to finding another elim.

To be clear, the sigh is because apart from Shadow (whose views I am now clear on), have not been able to get a consensus so my hands are rather tied in this area.

I will say I have light cause for concern on another doc mate, who would be consistent with Mat in leaning against revealing the members of Malkier. I should probably spend my energy rethinking them instead.

30 minutes ago, Experience said:

EDIT: To clarify this post is looking at those that voted against Archer: Kas, Aman, Shadow, and Devo

Is there a particular reason you are focusing on the Archer train rather than the Thaid train? Do you believe the Thaid train was pure apart from Archer?

[Experience]

2 minutes ago, Kasimir said:

Is there a particular reason you are focusing on the Archer train rather than the Thaid train? Do you believe the Thaid train was pure apart from Archer?

I already looked (and posted) about the Thaid train. Still awaiting responsed from tj to give more thoughts on him and mat though.

[Kasimir]

1 minute ago, Experience said:

I already looked (and posted) about the Thaid train. Still awaiting responsed from tj to give more thoughts on him and mat though.

RIP, apologies. This is what I get for being absolutely dead locked on two goddamned players and missing out 80% of the game -.-

Edited:

10 minutes ago, Amanuensis said:

But yeah, also, 100% agree with the "I'd rather die right and lose than live right and ignored" mentality I feel that in my bones <3

I made a grim joke in my IM DM that if I were a Dakhor with a two-shot kill I wouldn't shoot Devo and Bort, I'd shoot myself twice >>

El is just shaking her head at me but whatever, she's the IM, she signed up to put up with my nonsense (sorry El, ilu too  )

Edited April 4, 2022 by Kasimir

[Experience]

Just now, Kasimir said:

RIP, apologies. This is what I get for being absolutely dead locked on two goddamned players and missing out 80% of the game -.-

All good.

And sorry if I caused any grief or misunderstandings.

[Devotary of Spontaneity]

40 minutes ago, Experience said:

by Devo is ringing bells for me ahhh. Why did she vote Archer? Is she saying she thinks Striker is good or bad? This make me feel not good about her. But last page.

I voted for Archer so as to not die, and because Aman had made enough of a case against him to be worth a vote even if it was just Archer vs. Thaid. I looked at Striker because his posts seemed off but didn't see QF 59 signs so he was tentative not elim. I signed off after voting Archer and haven't really looked at EoD where Striker tried to vote Thaid, but that does sour any village credit. Alarm on Mat for speculating out of the blue that Exp's elim claim was pre-planned and voted on in the empire doc when apparently that's what happened.

[Experience]

Just now, Devotary of Spontaneity said:

Alarm on Mat for speculating out of the blue that Exp's elim claim was pre-planned and voted on in the empire doc when apparently that's what happened.

That's actually a good point that I hadn't thought of.

[Mat]

18 minutes ago, Kasimir said:

I will say I have light cause for concern on another doc mate, who would be consistent with Mat in leaning against revealing the members of Malkier. I should probably spend my energy rethinking them instead.

So I wasn't the only one?  Very interested on who this is if that's the case

1 minute ago, Devotary of Spontaneity said:

Alarm on Mat for speculating out of the blue that Exp's elim claim was pre-planned and voted on in the empire doc when apparently that's what happened.

I'm just perceptive and know Exp and Aman like their gambits 

[Amanuensis]

Me? Like gambits? 

TBF to Mat (who I suspect for completely separate reasons), Experience did claim Teoish in the same post he claimed Disruptor.

TBLF to Mat, I'm surprised he just chalked it up to "I know they like their gambits" and not "Experience claimed to be the same Empire as Aman before my post."

But yeah, if I live to D2 y'all already know where my vote is going regardless

Quote

Thaid   Matrim   Archer

If any of you three are village, this is when you should begin trying to prove it to me  

Thaid proved it by retroactively dying (RIP Thaid) and I was right about Archer so...

Gotta see if I was 1/3 or 2/3, y'know

Edited April 4, 2022 by Amanuensis

[Kasimir]

54 minutes ago, Experience said:

If Kas were Elim, the best reason for defending me would be to possibly implicate me when he flipped Elim because he was defending me.

Question for you.

How many people would buy that when in my last Evil game, I only defended Villagers and explicitly attacked my teammates or at least let them die?

55 minutes ago, Experience said:

Possible mat and Kas in same empire doc, I'll ask mat I guess. Or maybe not if I forget.

No, we're not. Shadow can confirm this.

[Experience]

2 minutes ago, Kasimir said:

How many people would buy that when in my last Evil game, I only defended Villagers and explicitly attacked my teammates or at least let them die?

This became null once you started questioning me about my reasoning for not giving reasoning next page.

[---]

hey guys hows it hanging

[Amanuensis]

Oh, you know. Getting voted by elims. Voting out elims. The usual.

[Kasimir]

It is what it is.

[|TJ|]

12 hours ago, Experience said:

@|TJ|. Thoughts on Devo, Bort, Striker, Aman, Kas, JNV, and Araris?

Evil, Evil, Village, Village, Village, Village and pending re-read because I don't remember. I also evil-read Mat :P. And you seem different than your usual village game as well. Striker, I'm v-reading for exactly the same reason Aman mentioned, re: so confident in my read of D1 Striker, I'm hoping he's village. 

[Kasimir]

@Amanuensis - Question for you, and for the thread.

I don't quite regard bus/attempt to save as the two binary options. To me, there are three:

• Bus
• Attempt to save
• Allow through

Teams can allow through a lynch because teammates were not online at that time, or because they lacked a sufficiently strong roster to save the player. (And of course, sometimes no player can save the teammate, but in my view, that doesn't change the tactical calculus that has to be made.)

In my judgement, Archer was not so confirmed gone that it would have been allowed through. But that being said, I did a quick and dirty vote check based off the un-updated state of my credences:

Quote

Archer (4): Kasimir, Amanuensis, shadow1, Devotary of Spontaneity
Thaidakar the Ghostblood (4): Matrim's Dice, Archer, The Baker, |TJ|
Devotary of Spontaneity (2): StrikerEZ, Araris Valerian
Experience (1): Thaidakar the Ghostblood
Tani (1): Experience

I do expect teams to also potentially go for a mix of options rather than put all their eggs in one basket. But suppose I go with this rough distribution of credences right now. 

We see a mix of a bus and an attempt to save. Where is the last teammate?

Or to put my question properly: this I think is one fairly consistent way of looking at the team's strategy for D1, ignoring posts since I don't want to re-read those so I shan't. We have one distance attempt, and one attempt to save Archer, and potentially an attempt to save Devo over Archer. 

On another distribution of credences:

Quote

Archer (4): Kasimir, Amanuensis, shadow1, Devotary of Spontaneity
Thaidakar the Ghostblood (4): Matrim's Dice, Archer, The Baker, |TJ|
Devotary of Spontaneity (2): StrikerEZ, Araris Valerian
Experience (1): Thaidakar the Ghostblood
Tani (1): Experience

Is Archer the strongest thread control player on that team? Did they have the ability to save him? It's a bit of a hard pill for me to swallow because intuitively, I think losing your thread control player D1 is a rough set-back. At the same time, if not, then who is the other? Why was there no attempt to save? Or was that a bus?

I keep circling back to this question because the one thing that does nag at me a bit is the idea that suppose Striker is V. Well, then how do we make sense of the 50-50 EoD for Archer? Acceptable risk appetite, with thread control player on the line? (How confident are they that no Forgers exist?) If not, feels like either way there are at least minor roster depth inferences to be made here.

Edited April 4, 2022 by Kasimir

[StrikerEZ]

10 hours ago, shadow1 said:

I don't really see what distinctly made it stand out as a counterwagon attempt, nor did I think any of archer's posts looked particularly good. A four player wagon in an 18 player game, on its own, doesn't raise red flags.

I appreciate you elaborating but I'm not sure I agree with this matching the actual situation on the ground at end of day.

It was actually 5 votes when I made my post. Someone changed to someone else just before I posted my post. And 5 out of 18 votes is pretty good when the highest other train was like 2 or 3 votes at the time. Of the votes that were made, 5 is a pretty significant number. 

[Amanuensis]

@Kasimir If I somehow am not NK #1 I'll have to respond to this D2, I desperately need a nap after a very stressful morning =/

Hey yo elims plz don't kill me if you want to see Striker and I do some really cool and funny JoJo RP, I promise I won't get any more of you killed D2 if you spare me <3

Edited April 4, 2022 by Amanuensis

[Experience]

Okay, I know people will most definitely disagree with this, but here are my suggestions for what people with actions should do. 

First off, I don't remember names of all the roles and too lazy to check. 

One that can do a kill, don't use it this turn, wait at least until next cycle when we have some more info. 

Protector, do whoever you think will be attacked. There's a chance that if the empire that Aman, JNV, Sibling, and I are in is now pure (because of Archers death) that one of us (less likely sibling, because they still haven't posted in our doc) are going to be the NK because they don't want to have a completely village doc where we can scheme without them knowing. So, protectors just keep that in mind when choosing who you think will be attacked. 

Roleblockers, you basically have two (good) options. Either roleblock the person with the most suspicion in your eyes, or roleblock someone who is slightly lower down on your suspicion list. The reason for the second option is that elims are less likely to use elims that have a bunch of pressure to submit the kill. 

I think for scanning and following, choose someone you think is suspicious, but less likely to be the main lynch options as of now. (looking like mat, Devo, or bort). Or choose one of those three because of that. Your call really. Is for all of them. 

I think that's all the roles? There's vote manip but can't use it this turn. 

[The Baker]

12 hours ago, JNV said:

Ok wow good job did not expect that let me examine what happened

So heres C1 thoughts

 Matrim just sorta realized the empire point once shadow said it but like I said basically the same thing and they didnt get it was it my poor grammar that confused you or something so nto really suspicious but grrr

So Devotarys reaction to the Experience evil claim was a bit strong maybe Im biased cause Im in Experiences empire so I was told about the plan in advance but while claiming elim isnt necessarily a villagery thing to do its not an evil thing to do its just... not smart and being wrong doesnt mean evil automatically and honestly being wrong kinda feels very very very mild good to me cause elims are tryin gto be trusted and stuff and seem credible but claiming elim just sort of undoes that so hmm for that solid hmm maybe even hmmm

So about the Bort thing I could see it but also think its plausible that they just read an old game or something to learn all the terms they didnt know or something recently or that like they siad they looked something up like maybe they did research so theyd stop having to ask about stuff who knows I dont like to make assumptios about what people do nd do not know specially when I dont know the person too well but I definitely think the Araris suspicion is not founded on reasonable grounds 

And yeha I can definitely see why Archer was voted off that post... man thats a kinda misrepresetnation of the empire doc there and just general hmmm ness going on if there was bussing on there it would be hard to tell the difference just cause theres so much to critique on there also they kinda just spilled our identities the open to reveal thin gwas more of a 'we go when we want' consent thing so that was kinda rude 

TJs vote on Thaidakar seems kinda opportunistic 

The kasimir thoughts under the spoiler seem like good thoughts but then again my brain is easily convinced by chains of long pretty words (also known as sentences) but then again I really agree with their Devotary points less sure about their Bort poinst but I feel like tehir definitely coming from a position of good one of my strongest reads you are a cool guy and you just ninjad me with a post with more data about Bort maybe I could come  around to that let me look into things then get back to you

And Shadow comes in with a wowza post I dont necessarily think the elim empire distribution is 100% random  not necessarily handpicked but probably adjusted so it doesnt end up with the 4 elim empire sorta situation or three rolls see which one looks the nicest and also you misspelled my name like its three letters come on but ok ok not really suspicious just a type and also thanks for the perfect example of why I dont really think poke votes do anything whatsoever how is someone suposed to be motivated to post by a ping if theyre offline besides how does the vote help any more than just pinging them to ask them thoughts until theyre already looking you cant preview unless you have email notifs for pings and thats off by default and it just encourages people to say 'hey im here' and have that be that and thats grr but anyway getting off topic 

Devotarys late vote could read a bus didnt really say much just sort of implied evil Amanuensis too and its kinda weird

And yeah Strikers vote is just always going to look bad in any world even if it didnt quite count thats... yeah

 

Ok now for night thoughts

So experience did indeed gambit and their questions could see mweird to the ignorant eye but as a person in the same empire wow they are a trooper they made like 6 pages of analysis all on their own seriously impressive they posted the conclusions a bit above but the exteneded cut was great

Oh and Experience, Kasimir is saying that you arent addressing their points about how obvious it was you were lying. Like it was very obvious and I know Im in your empire but man. 

And Kasimir, I read your thoughts I agree on Devotary that reaction seems a bit hmm on Bort was less confident now slightly mroe confident with all these nice data points thanks for the nice data I will gobble gobble the data like super turkey and yeah  Icoud see it would rathe go Devotary first then Bort but either way feels pretty good you feel pretty good thanks 

There havve been like a bajillion ninjas since I started this post If there are more thne oh well 

Oh and @The Baker while I respect your determination to post in only pictures of bread could you possibly use whatever thing you used to generate the 'im in' bit from your signup post to generate bread letters of game thoughts? And if you dont want to thats fine but its just... grrr

 

Spoiler

14 hours ago, shadow1 said:

@The Baker If it's not too much of a bother, could I please get a loaf of marble rye bread?

Spoiler

 

Edited April 4, 2022 by The Baker
bread