Long Game 84: A Sel United

[Mat]

Just now, Experience said:

Another thought I had to why Archer might bring this point up. If an elim had gotten caught in my trap, he might have been trying to mislead us by saying that it never would have caught one. 

Huh, I like this thought. Correct me if I'm wrong, but that implies e!Devo, no? I don't remember if there were any other strange reactions to the claim that drew any attention.

1 minute ago, Experience said:

@Matrim's Dice. Thoughts on Aman, Bort, Striker, Myself, Kas, and Araris?

• Aman- Decently strong village. Progression and solving amount feels normal, not to mention the huge Archer push he made.
• Bort- Bad gut, due in part to the post I know Kas dislikes.
• Striker- I dislike basically every one of his votes but also sympathize with his first post this cycle so idk. Still probably elim but it's hard for me to say that when the reasons against him are the same as the reasons against me.
• Exp- Pretty strong village. I like how you executed the gambit, especially your level-headed reactions to it. I like how you mentioned your vote switch at the start of this cycle (which is probably NAI, but still) and even though it also is NAI, mathematically, being in the same Empire as Archer you're more likely village than before he flipped  (I think that's how the math works, I dislike probability with a passion). This applies to Aman as well but I don't think he needs the help. Not that you really do either.
• Kas- As I mentioned, I think his late switch from Devo to Archer is villagery. That is, unless you're right about the first thing I quoted, and Devo's elim, so idk. Village for now.
• Araris- I remember nothing about him except that I thought Bort's bad gut against him was unjustified.

Why these people specifically?

4 minutes ago, Kasimir said:

Thing is, if I'm Evil, am I lying about my assumption in a way that would make me seem more Village? Because just to be clear, QF59 Evil Kas absolutely bussed Striker last minute and then cooked up an audacious lie about having planned to do that all along. It's absolutely within me to lie about that, at the very least, though I feel I don't get much credit for it either way...eh, whatever, only so many self-paranoia rabbit holes I can do tonight.

So it fundamentally doesn't really help, which is the point I'm really making and am aware of, because you only have my word for it.

I know, but I'm choosing to take your word for it since your word matches my initial assumption anyway :P.

[Kasimir]

5 minutes ago, Experience said:

Not exactly sure what you're saying here...

My point is that simply put, to condense everything I have said in late D1 in this game and would like even one goddamn player to please bloody read it and tell me if I'm trippin' because I'm this freakin' done being ignored yelling about my suspicions goddamnit! into a single sentence: it was a tainted set up, and you're overselling it's utility and looking the wrong way at the analysis. Or I might be tunneling...nice Vietcong grade tunnel here, of the sort I unleashed on Orlok in AG7.

Anyway, commented on Baker in my doc, so:

11 minutes ago, Experience said:

We don't have anything really for bakers reasoning so gonna gloss over him for the moment.

Possibly, but there's a very interesting vote movement from Baker that I logged in my Empire doc because it's apparently become my raw thought dumping ground despite the lack of engagement there.

Check out the state of the votes:

Quote

Thaid (2): Mat, Archer
Mat (2): Aman, Striker
Devo (2): Araris, Kas
Exp (1): Thaid
Archer (1): Exp

And then, Devo votes for Exp, creating a four-way tie:

Quote

Thaid (2): Mat, Archer
Mat (2): Aman, Striker
Devo (2): Araris, Kas
Exp (2): Thaid, Devo
Archer (1): Exp

Splinter train tactics or dilution? I don’t have an assessment I feel confident about just yet. Could be Devo just trying to project V!Devo, whether from pure motives, or Evil motives.

But then two minutes after Devo does that:

Quote

Thaid (3): Mat, Archer, Baker
Mat (2): Aman, Striker
Devo (2): Araris, Kas
Exp (2): Thaid, Devo
Archer (1): Exp

The Baker breaks the tie by going onto Thaid. Why? It’s very close to Devo’s movement, and I think if they were E/E, no need for Devo to go splinter-train or dilution if Baker was going onto Thaid anyway. Probably also not at the point in the cycle where they'd feel pressure to do it. Lack of baseline from Baker doesn't help.

Edited April 3, 2022 by Kasimir
bolded for votes to pop

[Experience]

5 minutes ago, Matrim's Dice said:

Why these people specifically?

I'll answer once TJ has also had the chance to answer. 

And on Devo, I will have more thoughts in my next bigger post once I've read through all her posts from D1. Rn idk what alignment she is, but if what I thought Archer did is in fact what he did, that would implicate either (most likely) e!Devo and (less likely) e!Kas. 

[Amanuensis]

Btw no matter what alignment Experience is, I'm loving his content so far. I believe this is the most involved I've seen him in a game and I'm a big fan. Keep it up

Edited April 3, 2022 by Amanuensis

[Experience]

1 minute ago, Amanuensis said:

Btw no matter what alignment Experience is, I'm loving his content so far. I believe this is the most involved I've seen him in a game and I'm a big fan. Keep it up

I guess it's what happens when I actually have the rare commodity of time. 

[Kasimir]

2 minutes ago, Amanuensis said:

Btw no matter what alignment Experience is, I'm loving his content so far. I believe this is the most involved I've seen him in a game and I'm a big fan. Keep it up

Would that I could feel this way, but I'm aggravated enough by that last post I'm going to step out and talk to El.

Since El has told me I was being unclear:

Quote

Me: Here's a list of reasons why this was poorly done, and Exp's analysis of this doesn't make sense.
Exp: It was perfect and you said nothing, never believe anything else.

17 minutes ago, Experience said:

Not exactly sure what you're saying here...

I'm done.

You all do whatever the chulls you want to.

I'm tapping out for the night because I am going to keep on getting triggered by what seems to be intensely obvious but no one else believes it or wants to engage with it. I'm done getting repeatedly ignored, which maybe isn't fair to my doc mates or to the thread since Archer was the big deal in the end of cycle, but whatever.

I'm fine being wrong, I'm fine with having tunnelled, I am absolutely not okay with being told there are three lights when it is as clear to me as the hand before my face right now that there are four.

I'll be back in the Day to help out if I want to, or not if I don't want to. I wanted a nice, quiet, chill RPful game, so I guess I should just make sure I get it.

[Amanuensis]

Tbh I kinda feel like Araris/Kas were being a lil too hard on Bort. I understand why given MR57, but at the same time, I believe the fact it carried over into this game could just be a matter of recency over alignment. I feel that Bort has a somewhat more noticeable carefree confidence in this game that he lacked in MR57? Like I get the impression he believes what he's saying this time versus making excuses. That said, Araris is probably Villager too because I can see him latching onto Bort for the reasons he described. I also harbor paranoia that Kas was being too rigid in his Bort tunnel for V!Kas and that Archer could have very well given Kas permission to bus him, given how quickly I called Archer out for voting me + the fact I was suspecting Kas in our doc. So... yeah. I wish I could 100% clear Kas for this but after QF59 I respect him way too much for that xD yay paranoia!

Devo could still be an elim tho ngl, I also said in my doc that I kinda felt like she was off in the same way I felt she was off in MR57. Since this game doesn't have Serial Killers, I can presume that means she's an elim, and there is sufficient evidence to point to her being tied with Archer - especially if Devo has a role and Archer was deemed the better sacrifice. Devo flipping elim would probably clear Kas in my mind because he would actually have to be kayana to gun for a teammate with a power role because of a fake elim claim that Archer should have warned them both about.

So tbh, not wholly opposed to a Dakhor Monk shooting Devo on N3. I'd say tonight but meh, I would prefer giving Devo a chance if she is a Villager. I don't believe any Dakhor should kill anyone tonight.

Otherwise I kinda wonder if Mat's stubborn opinion was affected by Archer's pro Empire reveal opinion. Like @Kasimir you like to do those fancy sigma groupings or whatever where you group people based on things they support and then analyzed who the most likely elim in each grouping is, yeah? What do you think the odds are of Mat doing a kind of pseudo distancing thing by taking the opposite stance of Archer without having a particularly good reason for it, just to make it seem like they weren't both pushing elim agenda?

ED1T:

Oof wait I'm confused. @Kasimir what's wrong I don't understand this response rn

Edited April 3, 2022 by Amanuensis

[Experience]

Aman get on the doc I need someone to talk to. For ideas. 

Edited April 3, 2022 by Experience

[Amanuensis]

25 minutes ago, Experience said:

Aman get on the doc I need someone to talk to. For ideas. 

Oops sorry I will get on my computer in a bit, currently making dinner.

[Devotary of Spontaneity]

1 hour ago, Kasimir said:

That point ironically pushes me a bit off Devo, yeah. I'm still wary of Bort, but given Archer's non-reaction to Exp, I am more inclined to suspect non-reaction here. But I should probably relook at the whole situation. My views on Devo's response being an anomaly still stand, but I'm just glad I looked past getting tilted by it and onto everything else.

You responded to Exp as if you believed he was genuinely claiming elim and then didn't vote, so I did it for you. If I brought up occurrences from past games that would've just given e!Exp convenient excuses to claim he was a villager all along. By not giving a reason everybody else has to come up with their own which might end up being helpful. So far it's just that I do not believe you would push this strongly as an elim.

[Kasimir]

2 hours ago, Devotary of Spontaneity said:

You responded to Exp as if you believed he was genuinely claiming elim and then didn't vote, so I did it for you. If I brought up occurrences from past games that would've just given e!Exp convenient excuses to claim he was a villager all along. By not giving a reason everybody else has to come up with their own which might end up being helpful. So far it's just that I do not believe you would push this strongly as an elim.

And I do the one thing I should never do which is return to the Shard while still angry and suggest this:

I'm happy to do this. We lynch me tomorrow, or the Dakhor shoots me tonight. When I flip Village, then I want at least one player to at least entertain the thought that your response is an anomaly that doesn't make sense. 

I want at least one player to entertain the thought that the set up was fundamentally flawed from the goddamn get go and at least one player to consider the possibility that the analysis posted on it is off. 

I am happy to open up voting on myself if that is what it takes. 

Just consider an E!Devo world. Just consider an E!Bort world. 

Literally so much of my EoD has been about this. If dying is what it takes for my goddamned voice to be heard even a little, so be it. 

A small price to pay for my salvation. 

Edited April 4, 2022 by Kasimir
justification

[Experience]

12 minutes ago, Amanuensis said:

Oops sorry I will get on my computer in a bit, currently making dinner.

No worries!

[Mat]

3 minutes ago, Kasimir said:

Just consider an E!Devo world. Just consider an E!Bort world. 

Literally so much of my EoD has been about this. If dying is what it takes for my goddamned voice to be heard even a little, so be it. 

A small price to pay for my salvation.

I certianly can see both, and haven't shot down either, for what it's worth.

[Amanuensis]

10 minutes ago, Kasimir said:

And I do the one thing I should never do which is return to the Shard while still angry and suggest this:

I'm happy to do this. We lynch me tomorrow, or the Dakhor shoots me tonight. When I flip Village, then I want at least one player to at least entertain the thought that your response is an anomaly that doesn't make sense. 

I want at least one player to entertain the thought that the set up was fundamentally flawed from the goddamn get go and at least one player to consider the possibility that the analysis posted on it is off. 

I am happy to open up voting on myself if that is what it takes. 

Just consider an E!Devo world. Just consider an E!Bort world. 

Literally so much of my EoD has been about this. If dying is what it takes for my goddamned voice to be heard even a little, so be it. 

A small price to pay for my salvation. 

Please check the post where I talked about my Bort and Devo feelings <3

I understand where you suspect Bort logically after MR57, but I also tonally read him as Village this game compared to that one. I guess I could be wrong and I do believe you tunneling this could be coming from a V!perspective, but I also just don't agree with you in this case. I don't feel like Bort is the same and am willing to give him more time to prove himself

I also do agree that Devo's stance on Experience was unusually rigid; I had said as much in my doc. But I also would like to give Devo a chance in case it's just a playstyle difference. That said, I also think there is other evidence to suggest e!Devo that should be looked at more, like Archer self-prezing on Thaid, who he earlier argued was NAI, over Devo, and the fact he pseudo defended Devo

ED1T: 

@Kasimir also yes, I don't agree with Experiences specific conclusions from my own experience (heh) and instincts. I can discuss them more if you want. I'm always happy to discuss stuff

Edited April 4, 2022 by Amanuensis

[Araris Valerian]

54 minutes ago, Amanuensis said:

Tbh I kinda feel like Araris/Kas were being a lil too hard on Bort.

I never posted the following when it came to mind, but I actually got village vibes from Bort's last post in our discussion. My feel was we could agree to disagree and revisit the topic later.

I'm also sort of out of touch with what went down both around Thaid and the end of cycle, so I'll come back once I've read that stuff.

[Amanuensis]

6 minutes ago, Araris Valerian said:

I never posted the following when it came to mind, but I actually got village vibes from Bort's last post in our discussion. My feel was we could agree to disagree and revisit the topic later.

I'm also sort of out of touch with what went down both around Thaid and the end of cycle, so I'll come back once I've read that stuff.

Oh cool, I'm not the only one then.

Like yeah, it's basically the way he followed it up. I wasn't a big fan of the OMGUS vote on you but, Villagers absolutely do that kind of thing frequently, especially D1. However, there was an inherently different feeling I got from his responses - what I referred to as "carefree confidence," for lack of a better term. It didn't feel as... explicitly designed as Bort's MR57 posts, if that makes sense? In that game, I sensed more of a reluctance / defensiveness. In this one it's more of like, a "y'all actually sussing me for this? lol" kinda feel?

Don't know how to articulate it properly since this is more of a Soul Read than an analysis read but, empath powers activate  

ED1T:

That said, while my Soul Reads are often accurate, I Soul Read shadow1 in the game we played recently from her first/second posts and she turned out to be an elim so... no, I'm not 100% saying Bort is Village. He should definitely be considered in the future if more elimmy things come up, but I stand by the conviction that what he did D1 was not specifically elimmy, and I'm side-eyeing players like Mat that voted him :eyes:

Edited April 4, 2022 by Amanuensis

[The Baker]

Spoiler

 

[Experience]

7 minutes ago, The Baker said:

  Reveal hidden contents

 

Do you have any thoughts about the game?

[Amanuensis]

1 hour ago, Experience said:

Do you have any thoughts about the game?

What do you mean? Aren't Baker's thoughts clear?

1 hour ago, The Baker said:

  Reveal hidden contents

 

Obviously, this image represents Baker openly claiming to be an elim. The three slices of bread on the left symbolize Archer, himself, and their mysterious third teammate. The knife on the right symbolizes what Baker is going to use to stab me tonight.

 

Edited April 4, 2022 by Amanuensis

[Experience]

Just now, Amanuensis said:

What do you mean? Aren't Baker's thoughts clear?

Obviously, this image represents Baker openly claiming to be an elim. The three slices of bread on the left symbolize Archer, himself, and their mysterious third teammate. The knife on the right symbolizes what Baker is going to use to stab me tonight.

Oh how could I miss that, seeing as we are on the same team.

My bad @The Baker for making it so obvious. 

[shadow1]

@The Baker If it's not too much of a bother, could I please get a loaf of marble rye bread?

[Amanuensis]

16 minutes ago, shadow1 said:

@The Baker If it's not too much of a bother, could I please get a loaf of marble rye bread?

Hey shadow how's life you enjoying the game so far?

Oh, and do you think Archer inquiring about Kas knowing your gender means:

A: there's an elim in your doc and he knew you two were in the same Empire but wanted to make it seem like he didn't, or
B: there's no elim in your doc and no elim in another doc and he was fishing for information that could tie Kas/you together

You obviously don't have to mention who's in your doc or anything, BUT

I'd seriously like you/Kas to consider the implications and judge the other members of your Empire with this interaction in mind, since it might be a good lead to finding another elim.

Edited April 4, 2022 by Amanuensis

[shadow1]

5 hours ago, StrikerEZ said:

Just gonna say that I’m glad my vote led to ties killing multiple people

Though I am very sorry that it led to Ash having to go through so much stress.

Anyway, I thought Archer was good because for once I didn’t read his posts and think they were bad. And I thought the Archer votes were an attempt at a counter wagon to save Thaid, who’d gotten a lot of pressure throughout the day. In comparison to Archer who got pressured just at the end. Or at least that’s how it felt to me. 

I don't really see what distinctly made it stand out as a counterwagon attempt, nor did I think any of archer's posts looked particularly good. A four player wagon in an 18 player game, on its own, doesn't raise red flags.

I appreciate you elaborating but I'm not sure I agree with this matching the actual situation on the ground at end of day.

@Amanuensis

4 minutes ago, Amanuensis said:

Hey shadow how's life you enjoying the game so far?

Oh, and do you think Archer inquiring about Kas knowing your gender means:

A: there's an elim in your doc and he knew you two were in the same Empire but wanted to make it seem like he didn't, or
B: there's no elim in your doc and no elim in another doc and he was fishing for information that could tie Kas/you together

You obviously don't have to mention who's in your doc or anything, BUT

I'd seriously like you/Kas to consider the implications and judge the other members of your Empire with this interaction in mind, since it might be a good lead to finding another elim.

Hey aman! I'm really enjoying it, this is such a nice community

As to your question, my doc isn't very active aside from kas, but I think the most likely case is that archer was trying to waste time on meaningless things/trying to frame us. I don't think kas is elim - for one, I don't think someone gets this frustrated about people not listening to their reads unless they are a villager. I know you read into what information people have or wouldn't have a lot as a way to see if they're lying, but A seems like a less likely play than just he was doing it to waste time with a bad suspicion of both of us. Or, if he did, that's not something I can really take beyond speculation.

B seems reasonable, but it would be in addition to what I think would be his main purpose of discrediting us. I also think that requires thinking the scum really want this information... I don't know, if I were scum, I don't think I'd care much. I've also been pretty open with thinking that information is probably better revealed than concealed, so there was probably an easier way to get that. But more than anything, given that other motive I think it's hard for me to reason backwards to infer the elim distribution from this, unless you have a better reason to think it's that over the other explanation?

I do like what you're trying to do with this line though, it's fun reasoning

Edited April 4, 2022 by shadow1

[Experience]

Okay here we go.

I went through page by page for D1, and going to reference them like Page 1 = P1. Spoiler for orginization purposes. Thoughts in spoilers are from as I was reading through, and I'll put final thoughts after.

P1:

Spoiler

5 Kas posts and 1 Devo post.

Basically only thing of note here is Kas's vote on Thaid.

P2:

Spoiler

4 Kas posts and 5 Aman posts

Okay a bit more here. Both Kas and Aman have voted Thaid without good reason. Kas opposite view with Mat. Aman has some reads, one of which was wrong (Thaid elim) but it was D1 so have all the slack. 

P3 (before my elim claim post):

Spoiler

2 Kas posts, 2 Aman posts, 1 Devo post

Aman possibly team e/e with mat. Or striker. Or possibly not. Lots of possiblys. At the point where Kas votes Devo, Devo has posted nothing game related. 
The aman stuff would be because of the way his votes moved around early on.

P3 (after my elim claim post):

Spoiler

3 Kas votes and 2 Devo posts

Okay so this is where the fun begins. If we just assume that Devo and Kas are Elim (individually) would it make sense? If Kas were Elim, the best reason for defending me would be to possibly implicate me when he flipped Elim because he was defending me. If Devo were Elim, it would be because she thinks it is a pretty easy ML. Now let's look at it flipside. If Kas were Village, he's be defending me because he thinks that what I'm doing is true to my playstyle of chaos. If Devo is village, she really does think that me claiming Elim is something an elim would do and is just getting caught up in IKYK. Can come back to these possibilities after the next page. 

P4:

Spoiler

7 Kas posts and 1 Devo posts

Possible mat and Kas in same empire doc, I'll ask mat I guess. Or maybe not if I forget. So Kas was defending me, but it appears it was more him defending my gambit because he goes to challenge me next page a bit. Imo village point there. Devo…idk I need other people's thoughts. I literally can't decide if this is caught Elim or confused villager. 

P5:

Spoiler

5 Kas posts, 4 Aman posts, 2 Shadow posts, 1 Devo post

This post by Devo is ringing bells for me ahhh. Why did she vote Archer? Is she saying she thinks Striker is good or bad? This make me feel not good about her. But last page.

P6:

Spoiler

1 Kas post, 1 Shadow post

Okay, so after all that. I think at least one of Devo and Kas are elim. Much more likely to be devo based on her reactions to my claim. After devo eventually dies and we get a flip, I need to reevaluate Kas either way Devo flips. Also I am village reading Aman for now, but am going to reevaluate him next turn because want to have clean doc now but paranoia. Now I need to reread through my doc to see if anything stands out and then read through and see what actually was up with the Bort-Araris stuff and if it stands out to me. But that's all from me for the night.

EDIT: To clarify this post is looking at those that voted against Archer: Kas, Aman, Shadow, and Devo

Edited April 4, 2022 by Experience

[The Sibling]

Hi! Sorry I haven't posted. I just had a very busy weekend, and this just slipped my mind. I finished my swimming lesson a little while ago, and that was the last thing that was happening this weekend or this week, so now I am ready to do this. I read through all the stuff, and my first thoughts are that Devo and Aman are the most suspicious. Anyways, sorry about not voting. Tomorrow I will be so totally into this.