Attempt at making a timeline of a moving people

[Myuken]

I am trying to determine what land is Lumar, with the use of WoBs and speculation on the public.

Roshar is the 4th land and since Iri is a Silver kingdom, the Iriali arrived at least 2000 years before the events of Stormlight Archive.

We know that Tress of the Emerald Sea occurs 300 years after the Iriali disappeared.

Captain M

How far apart on the timeline are the events of Tress of the Emerald Sea and Hoid's retelling of them? Could you give us positions of them relative to other Cosmere works?

Brandon Sanderson

He is telling this story within years or decades of the events, not within centuries.

Where this is in the actual Cosmere timeline, I will leave you to figure out, because I think that will be fun to figure out as you are reading.

Secret Project #1 Reveal and Livestream (March 8, 2022)

So with a bit of a margin, let's say Hoid is telling the story 100 years after Tress of the Emerald Sea.

Warbreaking

You said that Hoid is telling the story to someone else, so which world is he on while telling it?

Brandon Sanderson

That's a RAFO. It's a good question, but we'll see if you can figure it out. I'm not gonna guarantee that it is... Robert Jordan would use the phrase "It is intuitively obvious to the casual observer." I will not guarantee that this will be intuitively obvious to the casual observer. It may be something that you can't figure out, I'm gonna have to decide exactly how much I want to say. There should be contextual clues that will at least give you solid theories.

Secret Project #1 Reveal and Livestream (March 8, 2022)

 

We are able to figure it out. We'll have more clues with the whole book, but to me that means Hoid isn't talking to an unknown. The listener is someone we know.

So because this happens 400 years after the Iriali moved and they arrived on Roshar 2000+ years ago, this rules out Roshar. Because Era 2 happens at the same time and Era 1 is only 300 years prior, this rules out Scadrial. Because there is only several generations between Warbreaker and Stormlight Archives and the Manywar was only 300 years prior (Are all books 300 years after an event ?) it also cannot be anyone on Nalthis. 

 

Now we're left with the complicated ones.

- Elantris happens long before Mistborn. If we suppose that Hoid is telling the story to a character from Elantris, and that when the Iriali's disappeared from Lumar they appeared on Roshar, we'd have at the minimum

2000(Roshar's arrival) - 400(Hoid telling the story) - 300(time difference between Mistborn Era 1 and Stormlight Archives) = 1300 years

At the very least we'd need 1300 years between Elantris and Mistborn for Hoid to be able to tell anyone from Sel. That number is higher if we consider Emperor's Soul instead or that the Iriali arrived earlier than the latest possible moment on Roshar. I feel like there's not enough wiggle room here but it could work. Anyway if it is the case Lumar is the 3rd Land just before Roshar as there's not a lot of room for another one. That's the less likely possible option in my eyes. However I have a straw grasping theory about Sel, we'll come back to it later.

- White Sand is earlier than Elantris so there's more it fits better with the timeline. There's no real indication of how long ago it is. The most probable bet would be a pre-worldhopping Khriss as a listener and Hoid telling this story in a way to incite her to start her worldhopping voyage. Lumar could be 2nd or 3rd Land, this mostly depends on the difference in time between White Sand and Stormlight Archives, which as far as I know is not fully decided yet but would be in the thousands of years.

- Sixth of the Dusk is the latest story in the timeline, and the only one occurring after Era 2, this would make Lumar a land after the 4th and the story of Tress of the Emerald Sea happening very late. I don't think it is likely that this story happens during the Space Age of the Cosmere. However we've seen that some backwater world isolated from the rest of the Cosmere may be late to the space race, plus the Aether Moon grid is probably effective at keeping people in and keeping intruders out. The story may draw parallels between the isolated island in the sea where people can't leave but can be visited and the isolated First of the Sun where people can't travel space but are visited by space-faring civilisations. In this situation this might be either the 5th or 6th Land. I'd be tempted to say it is their 6th Land because it is late in the Cosmere timeline but I feel like the end of the Long Trail and reaching the 7th Land is an important event that we'll see directly and not hear about from 300 years into the future.

 

Now the straws and the grasping :

It is based on observations and a lot of "no evidence" but I don't see anything against.

When the Iriali, disappeared they all vanished at the same time, leaving no-one behind except a ghost island. Given the presence of the cup, it's unclear if they brought anything with them. So they all seemed to be in the same place but what would happen when they leave Roshar. Presumably everyone would disappear at the same time. It's unclear how big of an island the Iriali had but it's probably smaller than their country on Roshar. When they disappear there'll be a ghost country, no-one left except maybe a few travellers. Travel and communications are getting more and more advanced on Roshar so that'll be noticed quickly. but what if there wasn't that many people and the technology was more ancient, can the disappearance of a people be unnoticed for so long that nobody remember them?

Yes, my straw-grasping theory is that the Iriali are the first Elantrians, they built Elantris when Aona and Skai were alive. They moved away when Odium splintered Devotion and Dominion. All disappearing at the same time leaving an empty city that stays empty until another people arrive. To note Iri and Ali would both works as Aons, we don't have their meaning but we know we don't have all of the Aons in the Ars Arcanum. Another point is that except the boat Sprens in Shadesmar, the Elantrians and the Iriali are the only people described as having Metallic skins, Iriali as Gold and Elantrians as Silver, now I'm reaching but Elantrians being the 2nd Silver version to the 1st Gold version lend itself well in a medal reference of sort. This would also fit well as a not really human ancestry depending on your definition.

This would makes Sel the 1st Land.

 

Thanks for reading me. Don't hesitate to share your thoughts!

[+Oltux72]

47 minutes ago, Myuken said:

I am trying to determine what land is Lumar, with the use of WoBs and speculation on the public.

Roshar is the 4th land and since Iri is a Silver kingdom, the Iriali arrived at least 2000 years before the events of Stormlight Archive.

OK, let's go for the odd angles. How sure are we that the contemporary Irialians are the original inhabitants of the land? That is is the Silver Kingdom of Iri only a name?
And when Hoid says Iriali is he using the Lumaran name?

47 minutes ago, Myuken said:

Brandon Sanderson

That's a RAFO. It's a good question, but we'll see if you can figure it out. I'm not gonna guarantee that it is... Robert Jordan would use the phrase "It is intuitively obvious to the casual observer." I will not guarantee that this will be intuitively obvious to the casual observer. It may be something that you can't figure out, I'm gonna have to decide exactly how much I want to say. There should be contextual clues that will at least give you solid theories.

Secret Project #1 Reveal and Livestream (March 8, 2022)

 

The textual clues point to a fairly terrestial environment and to somebody who knows Hoid under the name Hoid. That mainly rules out Roshar.

47 minutes ago, Myuken said:

 it also cannot be anyone on Nalthis.

No. He could be talking the Endowment. I am just saying this to cover all angles. I am sure Hoid knows that a Shard would know that oceans almost everywhere are water.

47 minutes ago, Myuken said:

Now we're left with the complicated ones.

- Elantris happens long before Mistborn. If we suppose that Hoid is telling the story to a character from Elantris, and that when the Iriali's disappeared from Lumar they appeared on Roshar, we'd have at the minimum

2000(Roshar's arrival) - 400(Hoid telling the story) - 300(time difference between Mistborn Era 1 and Stormlight Archives) = 1300 years

Why the time difference between SA and Era 1?

47 minutes ago, Myuken said:

- White Sand is earlier than Elantris so there's more it fits better with the timeline. There's no real indication of how long ago it is. The most probable bet would be a pre-worldhopping Khriss as a listener and Hoid telling this story in a way to incite her to start her worldhopping voyage. Lumar could be 2nd or 3rd Land, this mostly depends on the difference in time between White Sand and Stormlight Archives, which as far as I know is not fully decided yet but would be in the thousands of years.

We should name that "the early hypothesis".

47 minutes ago, Myuken said:

- Sixth of the Dusk is the latest story in the timeline, and the only one occurring after Era 2, this would make Lumar a land after the 4th and the story of Tress of the Emerald Sea happening very late. I don't think it is likely that this story happens during the Space Age of the Cosmere. However we've seen that some backwater world isolated from the rest of the Cosmere may be late to the space race, plus the Aether Moon grid is probably effective at keeping people in and keeping intruders out. The story may draw parallels between the isolated island in the sea where people can't leave but can be visited and the isolated First of the Sun where people can't travel space but are visited by space-faring civilisations. In this situation this might be either the 5th or 6th Land. I'd be tempted to say it is their 6th Land because it is late in the Cosmere timeline but I feel like the end of the Long Trail and reaching the 7th Land is an important event that we'll see directly and not hear about from 300 years into the future.

We should name that "the late hypothesis".

I also need to point out that the Hoid depicted on the Kickstarter is openly carrying what appears to be two vials of allomantic metals on his belt. That makes him later than Secret History.

47 minutes ago, Myuken said:

Now the straws and the grasping :

It is based on observations and a lot of "no evidence" but I don't see anything against.

When the Iriali, disappeared they all vanished at the same time, leaving no-one behind except a ghost island. Given the presence of the cup, it's unclear if they brought anything with them. So they all seemed to be in the same place but what would happen when they leave Roshar. Presumably everyone would disappear at the same time. It's unclear how big of an island the Iriali had but it's probably smaller than their country on Roshar. When they disappear there'll be a ghost country, no-one left except maybe a few travellers. Travel and communications are getting more and more advanced on Roshar so that'll be noticed quickly. but what if there wasn't that many people and the technology was more ancient, can the disappearance of a people be unnoticed for so long that nobody remember them?

Ships in transit? Oathgates?

47 minutes ago, Myuken said:

Yes, my straw-grasping theory is that the Iriali are the first Elantrians, they built Elantris when Aona and Skai were alive. They moved away when Odium splintered Devotion and Dominion. All disappearing at the same time leaving an empty city that stays empty until another people arrive. To note Iri and Ali would both works as Aons, we don't have their meaning but we know we don't have all of the Aons in the Ars Arcanum. Another point is that except the boat Sprens in Shadesmar, the Elantrians and the Iriali are the only people described as having Metallic skins, Iriali as Gold and Elantrians as Silver, now I'm reaching but Elantrians being the 2nd Silver version to the 1st Gold version lend itself well in a medal reference of sort. This would also fit well as a not really human ancestry depending on your definition.

This would makes Sel the 1st Land.

How does that alter the timing issue? It would just tells us that Lunamar cannot be the 1st land. But the timeline is implausible enough with Lunamar being the 3rd land.

 

[+Bzhydack]

3 hours ago, Oltux72 said:

No. He could be talking the Endowment. I am just saying this to cover all angles. I am sure Hoid knows that a Shard would know that oceans almost everywhere are water.

Text highly sugests that reciver of story knows only his planet. And all Vessels except Sazed knows their Planet AND Yolen. So this rules out all Vessels. Rules out also Heralds, because they are from Ashyn and travel to Roshar.

[+Oltux72]

11 minutes ago, Bzhydack said:

Text highly sugests that reciver of story knows only his planet. And all Vessels except Sazed knows their Planet AND Yolen. So this rules out all Vessels. Rules out also Heralds, because they are from Ashyn and travel to Roshar.

Mostly. But he could be taking to a Herald still on Ashyn. It would also rule out Frost, Kelsier and the Fused. It does not rule out Khrissalla or Baon, but then we are really looking at the earliest story. If we can also rule out the Fused before they were Fused, based on non-Rosharan knowledge, not so many remain.

[cometaryorbit]

11 hours ago, Oltux72 said:

Why the time difference between SA and Era 1?

Arc 1 of Stormlight Archive is after Mistborn Era 2 (but apparently not much after). Alloy of Law is set 341 years after the end of Era 1. Lost Metal will apparently be five or six years after Bands of Mourning, so Stormlight Archive arc 1 is probably 350-ish years after Hero of Ages.

[Rashekin]

3 minutes ago, cometaryorbit said:

Arc 1 of Stormlight Archive is after Mistborn Era 2 (but apparently not much after). Alloy of Law is set 341 years after the end of Era 1. Lost Metal will apparently be five or six years after Bands of Mourning, so Stormlight Archive arc 1 is probably 350-ish years after Hero of Ages.

Nope, Era 2 is set after Stormlight 5 and before Stormlight 6. That is, in that 10-20 year gap between both Stormlight arcs.

https://wob.coppermind.net/events/475/#e14998

 

Quote

 

Questioner

So the next Wax and Wayne, is that after the fifth Stormlight?

Brandon Sanderson

All the Wax and Wayne ones chronologically take place in the ten year gap between Stormlight 5 and 6.

FanX 2021 (Sept. 16, 2021)

 

 

[cometaryorbit]

23 minutes ago, Rashekin said:

Nope, Era 2 is set after Stormlight 5 and before Stormlight 6. That is, in that 10-20 year gap between both Stormlight arcs.

https://wob.coppermind.net/events/475/#e14998

 

 

Oops. Good point. So then Stormlight arc 1 is probably 330-340 years post Hero of Ages.

[Ixthos]

21 hours ago, Myuken said:

Yes, my straw-grasping theory is that the Iriali are the first Elantrians, they built Elantris when Aona and Skai were alive. They moved away when Odium splintered Devotion and Dominion. All disappearing at the same time leaving an empty city that stays empty until another people arrive. To note Iri and Ali would both works as Aons, we don't have their meaning but we know we don't have all of the Aons in the Ars Arcanum. Another point is that except the boat Sprens in Shadesmar, the Elantrians and the Iriali are the only people described as having Metallic skins, Iriali as Gold and Elantrians as Silver, now I'm reaching but Elantrians being the 2nd Silver version to the 1st Gold version lend itself well in a medal reference of sort. This would also fit well as a not really human ancestry depending on your definition.

This would makes Sel the 1st Land.

This. This is now one of my favourite Cosmere theories. I like this theory so much!

The question becomes if this is true: are they still connected to Devotion and Dominion and / or Sel and the Dor, and did their quest and belief begin before or after Devotion and Dominion were splintered - is this perhaps something Aona and Skai were planning from the start?

[Myuken]

19 hours ago, Oltux72 said:

Why the time difference between SA and Era 1?

Zas

Elantris. Where does it fit in the timeline in reference to Hero of Ages? Since that's what most other things are referenced to.

Brandon Sanderson

Right. Elantris is far earlier.

Zas

Like thousands? Or like hundreds?

Brandon Sanderson

It's quite... It's not thousands.

Orem signing (Sept. 22, 2012)

I suppose from that answer that we're between 1000 and 2000. And that's like the only clue on the timeline of Elantris. It might not even be right anymore given that it's quite an old WoB.

15 hours ago, Oltux72 said:

Mostly. But he could be taking to a Herald still on Ashyn.

That's also a possibility, this would be similar or earlier than the "early hypothesis" in the timeline.

20 hours ago, Oltux72 said:

How does that alter the timing issue?

It doesn't play into Lumar's position on the trail but it's also related to the timeline of the Iriali.

[Zibus]

This is some really detailed theory work. To throw a wrench in things though, we have this WoB:

 

Quote

 

Jeremy

If vast amounts of Investiture can distort time in a similar manner as a black hole, [...] does that include Shards? Would time dilation be greater on Roshar than on Nalthis?

Brandon Sanderson

No, because the Shard is contained almost entirely in the Spiritual Realm. In the Spiritual Realm, time and distance have no meaning. So, what this means is: Large piles of Investiture that somehow make it into the Cognitive Realm or the Physical Realm are going to cause time dilation, but the Spiritual Realm—where it belongs—it's not going to do that.

That's gonna make some exclamation points raise above the heads of some people.

 

Obviously this is going to be most relevant on Sel where we have most of the power of TWO dead shards hanging out in the Cognitive realm. This means the events on Elantris are massively "slowed-down" relative to the rest of the Cosmere. We have no idea about the severity, but theoretically you could have decades or centuries pass on Sel and only a few years pass on Scadrial or Roshar.

Which also brings up planet years. So far I think Brandon has said basically every planet has years that roughly correspond to earth years - and therefore roughly correspond to each other, but we don't know for sure that's the case for every planet, and we know nothing about the relative length of a Lumarian year.

On 3/11/2022 at 7:21 AM, Myuken said:

So because this happens 400 years after the Iriali moved and they arrived on Roshar 2000+ years ago, this rules out Roshar. Because Era 2 happens at the same time and Era 1 is only 300 years prior, this rules out Scadrial. Because there is only several generations between Warbreaker and Stormlight Archives and the Manywar was only 300 years prior (Are all books 300 years after an event ?) it also cannot be anyone on Nalthis. 

I don't think we can actually rule all of these out. There are beings on Roshar who have existed for thousands of years, though it does probably rule out most of our main characters. Same argument concerning Nalthis and Scadrial - lots of Breath can extend your life pretty far, as can Hemalurgy - though again it limits us to a handful of characters.

Anyways, lots of intriguing possibilities.

[+Oltux72]

14 hours ago, Zibus said:

Which also brings up planet years. So far I think Brandon has said basically every planet has years that roughly correspond to earth years - and therefore roughly correspond to each other, but we don't know for sure that's the case for every planet, and we know nothing about the relative length of a Lumarian year.

Not really. Even if you could cancel out the 300 or so years since the Iriali vanished. But those are not the problem. The problem is the length of Iriali history on Roshar. Iri was among the Silver Kingdoms, yet the Silver Kingdoms predate everything but Elantris and White Sand for sure and likely even Elantris, possibly even White Sand.

You could have explained that away, if the Iriali were the original inhabitants of the Silver Kingdoms but the people now seen in Iri had taken over the Rosharan name. But then the name on Lumar could not have been Iriali.

[CryoZenith]

I'm just gonna point out something that might support the theory.

Iri. Ire. Very similar words. Could easily be etymologically evolved from each other.

[+Oltux72]

3 hours ago, CryoZenith said:

I'm just gonna point out something that might support the theory.

Iri. Ire. Very similar words. Could easily be etymologically evolved from each other.

They could. But what does that help us? Sure they may have been on Sel. But then you make even more certain that the kingdom of Iriis named after the Iri people whose names comes from outside. The timeline is not a problem if you say that Lumar is the fifth land. But then Hoid must be telling the story to somebody from First of the Sun.

[Elegy]

There's also the Aon Ial, which means "Help" or "Aid". "Irial" could be a blending of Ire and Ial, then the -i could possibly signify a plural or something like that. In that case it might mean "Old Helpers". But even then there's the question why they call themselves "old". That only really makes sense if they had already been old when they called themselves that. Which would mean that this story would not take place shortly after they were formed, but when they were already old.

But that's geasping at straws. Similarities like that can always be coincidence:

Quote

Jamester86

Kalad and Kalak, Shashara and Shalash...a lot of names on Nalthis and Roshar seem related....pure coincidence?

Brandon Sanderson

There is a lot of crossover between the planets. But not every connection people make is an intentional one.

Stormlight Three Update #6 (Jan. 26, 2017)

 

[StrikerEZ]

5 hours ago, Oltux72 said:

They could. But what does that help us? Sure they may have been on Sel. But then you make even more certain that the kingdom of Iriis named after the Iri people whose names comes from outside. The timeline is not a problem if you say that Lumar is the fifth land. But then Hoid must be telling the story to somebody from First of the Sun.

TotES can be when the Iriali have reached the Fifth Land (or Sixth) and Hoid could not be talking to a SotD character. There are many characters that could find a way to survive past the events of SA. We know we'll see more of Shai, it could be any currently living Scadrians that find a way to be immortal, could be Siri/Susebron (who absolutely have access to enough Breath to both reach immortality), could be Silence for all we know. 

All of this said, however, I really feel like this is pre-Roshar for the Iriali. That makes it much more interesting, to see where the Iriali have come from rather than where they're going.

[+Oltux72]

5 minutes ago, StrikerEZ said:

TotES can be when the Iriali have reached the Fifth Land (or Sixth) and Hoid could not be talking to a SotD character. There are many characters that could find a way to survive past the events of SA. We know we'll see more of Shai, it could be any currently living Scadrians that find a way to be immortal, could be Siri/Susebron (who absolutely have access to enough Breath to both reach immortality), could be Silence for all we know. 

Yes, but then they would know what a normal ocean looks like in the Cosmere, unless they were on an isolated world.

5 minutes ago, StrikerEZ said:

All of this said, however, I really feel like this is pre-Roshar for the Iriali. That makes it much more interesting, to see where the Iriali have come from rather than where they're going.

That means that we are potentially looking at the oldest Cosmere story. That in turn raises the question of what happened to technological development in the Cosmere. Lumar has powered machinery. Where is it? There is a perpendicularity on the planet or Hoid could not be on it. This should have been exported thousands of years ago. What happened to Lumar?

[StrikerEZ]

1 hour ago, Oltux72 said:

That means that we are potentially looking at the oldest Cosmere story. That in turn raises the question of what happened to technological development in the Cosmere. Lumar has powered machinery. Where is it? There is a perpendicularity on the planet or Hoid could not be on it. This should have been exported thousands of years ago. What happened to Lumar?

Maybe Lumar and it’s inhabitants got completely smothered by the spores. Seems likely since there’s an endless amount of them streaming down to the planet and they have to go somewhere.