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Timing implications of SP#1


Oltux72

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The implication is that the iriali have lived on 3 other planets prior to Roshar, given the tech levels implied in this story (cannons and sailing ships) I believe that this is likely prior to Roshar as we can assume that were soon to be reaching Roshar's Industrial revolution with the rate of technological development we've seen.

 

Spoilers for the preview chapters of the Sixth of the Dusk Sequel

Spoiler

While this could be set after Stormlight and the Iriali have simply forgotten the tech I can't imagine that's the case given the sneak peak we saw of Sixth of the Dusk sequel with both Scadrial and Roshar competing AND being of similar tech levels. If Roshar has lost its tech they wouldn't be able to compete with Scadrial.

 

 

 

 

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34 minutes ago, Someredditor1922 said:

The implication is that the iriali have lived on 3 other planets prior to Roshar, given the tech levels implied in this story (cannons and sailing ships) I believe that this is likely prior to Roshar as we can assume that were soon to be reaching Roshar's Industrial revolution with the rate of technological development we've seen.

Aren't you making the natural but unproven assumption that the Iriali exodus from Roshar will not happen in the near future? Isn't a planet about to be taken over by Odium or becoming the front line in a clash among Shards a good reason to flee?

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3 hours ago, Oltux72 said:

Aren't you making the natural but unproven assumption that the Iriali exodus from Roshar will not happen in the near future? Isn't a planet about to be taken over by Odium or becoming the front line in a clash among Shards a good reason to flee?

The Iri just sided with the Singers, they seem committed to me.

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It seems a lot more likely to me that this a planet they were on before Roshar- they were on this planet for long enough for their disappearance to be considered mysterious, and left 300 years ago. We'd be looking at a bare minimum of 500 years post-Stormlight, probably a fair bit longer than that. Which is further in the future than even Mistborn era 4 seems likely to be- so then this story would be then be the very last Cosmere story chronologically, which would be an odd decision on Brandon's part.

And then we add in the issue about the tech level being below what we'd expect from a group that left from Roshar, the fact that we don't actually know if Hoid will survive that long, that we don't know if the Iriali are actually going to continue their journey...

It's not impossible for this story to be in the future. But you need to make a lot of additional assumptions to make it work. 

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1 hour ago, Gilphon said:

It's not impossible for this story to be in the future. But you need to make a lot of additional assumptions to make it work. 

Makes sense, but opens another can of worms. It means that this story needs to be very early. Iri is one of the Silver Kingdoms. And these people have cannons and powered machinery at that point, What has happened to them? Are they cut off due to the lack of a perpendicularity? Then whence did Mraize get his aether and how did Hoid get there?

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11 minutes ago, Gilphon said:

Nightside seems to have a similar tech level in White Sand, and that's also really early. Not Silver Kingdoms levels of early, but still

True and there we know that Autonomy cracked down and isolated the planet. What has happened here?

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Autonomy's crackdown appears to have happened a fair bit later- Certainly it happened after Khriss left the planet.

I don't really think anything is particular needs to have happened here; worldhoppers just don't seem be doing much to spread tech around in general. Scadrial's tech boom hasn't affected Roshar noticeably, for example. And Khriss comments that Scadrial is still behind Silverlight. 

Like the Iriali as people would, but they left this planet centuries ago, and would've forgotten anything they brought with them during the desolations. 

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59 minutes ago, Gilphon said:

Like the Iriali as people would, but they left this planet centuries ago, and would've forgotten anything they brought with them during the desolations. 

And given we have no idea about the timing  of the spore fall - if its a recent development or has been around for along time - we have no idea how long this world has had this tech level. The Iriali may have left before gunpowder, industrial mining, and masted sailing ships became a thing. Even if, that doesn't tell us a lot about the timing. I don't think we know much about how long the Iriali have been on Roshar. This could have been their stop before Roshar and the story might still take place post SLA.

Also remember there are still people on our world who don't have electricity or use any tools/metal working more complicated than blacksmithing. Parts of this world might be much more developed. This world itself might be really hard to get to cosmere speaking. As far as we know, the Aethers are no longer associated with a specific shard - so there is no reason to think there's a useful perpendicularity. Which might lend credence to this taking place a bit further in the timeline if Hoid has been able to travel here - assuming there is no perpendicularity for Cognative realm travel.

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Perpendicularity dont need to be from Specific Shard, its just vast amount of Investiture concentrated in one place. Considering fact around planet are orbiting 12 freaking moons filled with Investiture i think there is big chance for Perpendicularity somewhere on the planet. Maybe like on Threnody, is not stable and just pops in specific places in specific time.

About technology. Khlenni on Scadrial were near to construct railroads, and that was over 1300 years ago (and all go to hell because of Lord Ruler), so it is not as unreasonable. Also on this planet progress can be slower, because many discoveries need water.

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actually, it's not specified that they do have cannons in this world. cannons are mentioned in " she marched, like a soldier on the front lines facing cannon fire ". but this is Hoid talking, and talking to someone.

so what we know from this is that hoid is talking to someone who knows cannons.

at present, it implies a scadrian, but it may very well be told in the near future.

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On 3/4/2022 at 8:46 AM, king of nowhere said:

actually, it's not specified that they do have cannons in this world. cannons are mentioned in " she marched, like a soldier on the front lines facing cannon fire ". but this is Hoid talking, and talking to someone.

so what we know from this is that hoid is talking to someone who knows cannons.

at present, it implies a scadrian, but it may very well be told in the near future.

Hoid is not above using references and analogies alien to his listener. He confused poor Kaladin more than once with a story leading him to wonder what a dog is, or a chick, or a bunny, etc., until Hoid told him to just imagine "some slimy, disgusting crab with seventeen legs" or something like that at some point, LOL.

And from the words, one can get the sense that "cannons" are something only brave soldiers march towards even without knowing what they are, but not what a "moon" would be: it seems he expects the listener to know that moons are supposed to be in the sky, but not that there'd be twelve of them that are stationary in the sky. And Scadrial has no moon at all.

My guess is that this is (part of) him interacting with Shai while getting her to help him steal the Moon Scepter, as alluded to having happened a short while before The Emperor's Soul.

The Iriali disappearing from this in-story planet en masse about 300 years prior to this story's setting is interesting: this would be before they arrived to Roshar (see previous assumption), but they have been on Roshar for a long time. Iri was one of the Silver Kingdoms going back to before the Recreance, which was 2,000 years before Dalinar's time. Yet Ym says the Iri view Roshar as "the Fourth Land" in their Long Trail. Whether the Iri were on Tress' world as the First, Second, or Third Land is as yet unknown, of course.

That said, if you take the casual reference to "cannons" to heart, a text search for "cannon" shows they are mentioned in-world in Sixth of the Dusk but not anywhere else in Arcanum Unbounded - nor in any of the works from Elantris, Mistborn, Warbreaker, or Stormlight. I guess Hoid could be talking to Dusk?

It's very possible cannons exist in White Sand, I can't text search the graphic novels but I remember they certainly had firearms... But then, Hoid's analogy to his listener of oceans of water wouldn't make any sense.

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On 3/4/2022 at 5:32 AM, Bzhydack said:

About technology. Khlenni on Scadrial were near to construct railroads, and that was over 1300 years ago (and all go to hell because of Lord Ruler), so it is not as unreasonable. Also on this planet progress can be slower, because many discoveries need water.

Technology levels would not necessarily increase at the same rate on these various worlds. And the available resources on a world would greatly speed up or slow down local rates of tech development.

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36 minutes ago, robardin said:

That said, if you take the casual reference to "cannons" to heart, a text search for "cannon" shows they are mentioned in-world in Sixth of the Dusk but not anywhere else in Arcanum Unbounded - nor in any of the works from Elantris, Mistborn, Warbreaker, or Stormlight.

That is literally true, but only because cannons are outdated muzzle-loaders by the time of Era 2. The battleships Bilming was building have breach-loading artillery. Scadrians definitely know what cannons are. And educated Scadrians also know what moons are. The gas giant in their stellar system has moons.

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Does anyone have any of the metaphors that someone's Iri wife uses? I know whe isnt 100% Iriali, but she is culturally related to that group. Maybe some of her metaphors were colour and moon based? That would be a clue. 

 

Edited by teknopathetic
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2 hours ago, robardin said:

Hoid is not above using references and analogies alien to his listener. He confused poor Kaladin more than once with a story leading him to wonder what a dog is, or a chick, or a bunny, etc., until Hoid told him to just imagine "some slimy, disgusting crab with seventeen legs" or something like that at some point, LOL.

 

that is certainly true, but you can use that reasoning to prove anything you want. you dismiss my reasoning on cannons on this basis, then you argue that the reference to moons may indicate a selish spectator, but one can just as easily claim that the reference to a moon could be an alien analogy.

furthermore, I'd argue that hoid on roshar using alien analogies was intentional from brandon to showcase how "wit" is from outside. remember, most readers are not cosmere aware, they do not know who hoid is, and those alien references are a way from brandon to say "this guy is more than he looks like"

that said, anyone in scadrial era 2 with the slightest bit of astronomical common knowledge will know what a moon is. most inhabited cosmere planets have a moon anyway.

I also would  not rule out taldain because of water oceans. Taldain has big water oceans, and many people live along the coast. even deep desert dweller know that there is a coast and an ocean somewhere far away, though they probably never saw it

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2 hours ago, king of nowhere said:

that is certainly true, but you can use that reasoning to prove anything you want. you dismiss my reasoning on cannons on this basis, then you argue that the reference to moons may indicate a selish spectator, but one can just as easily claim that the reference to a moon could be an alien analogy.

Sure, but my point was that (to me) it takes less to gloss over what a "cannon" might be, beyond "obviously dangerous for a soldier to walk towards", versus what a moon would be... I wouldn't go so far as to say I "dismiss" the idea the story being told on Scadrial, just that it feels (more) off to me than otherwise.

We'll get more hints as we read more chapters, I suppose, as to who the person Hoid is telling this story to might be. We have only the suggestion that it's someone we'd recognize/know from an earlier Cosmere work ("You might be able to pick up some of the context of who he’s talking to–but it’s not meant to be explicitly obvious... meant to be him telling the story to someone in the cosmere listening.").

While we've seen Hoid pop up or get mentioned in nearly every Cosmere work, he's only been shown in the act of storytelling a few times. Once when summoned by Lightsong to tell Siri of the origin of the God Kings (wherein he also informs Siri that the royal family of Idris, having formerly ruled Hallendren, were descended by blood from Vo the First Returned, among other tidbits); once when telling a story to a mostly oblivious crowd in Kholinar (the story of Mishim, the third moon, and why the people of Natanan have faintly blue skin - "a story about loss") - possibly meant for Shallan who heard him starting to tell it, if by the operation of Fortune - and a few times telling a story to Kaladin (the story of Fleet, of the Wandersail, and the dog who wanted to be a dragon).

His stories tend to move the listener to action, or to a better understanding of themselves or their nature, or both.

We haven't seen Hoid do any storytelling on Scadrial at all: in Era 1 he posed as a skaa informant, and in Era 2 as a beggar at a wedding (though one who claimed to be friends of the couple getting married!), where he threw an unsealed coppermind coin at Wax, and earlier as one of Wax's coachmen. So if he's telling it on Scadrial to someone we've seen, it's hard to think of who that'd be.

Beldre in Urteau (moving her to go to try to talk to Spook)? Allriane, to leave Cett's camp to go to Breeze in Luthadel? That'd be something!

But, based on just these first five chapters, my gut feeling is that it's Shai from The Emperor's Soul, or Dusk from Sixth of the Dusk.

Edited by robardin
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  • 4 weeks later...

Mhm. I feel its very likely that Lumar is the Iriali's 5th Land. If it was the 6 it means they would be now in their promised destination which I doubt since that feels like a plot hook for books in Era 4.

 

Thus leaving the 5th Land, aka the world they came to immediately after leaving Roshar. And this world they have already left 300 years ago so the gaps between SA and SotD is big huh

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1. Emerald Sea takes place in the Cosmere Future

2. The Irali left Lumar 1,500 years ago for a new land

3. The final desolation took place 4500 years before TWoK, and at that time Iri was a well established Silver Kingdom.

4. the Iri had an Oathgate, meaning the Iri nation is older that 4500 years (possibly much older but we cant nail that down) 

5. We now know Emerald Sea takes place in the Cosmere Future and that Hoid is telling this story relatively closely to the events happening. 

5. The Irali left Lumar edit: 300 years before The Merald Sea for a new land

Conclusion: These dates do not line up for this to be the 3rd land. It is not possible that the Iriali left Lumar for Roshar if Emerald Sea is set in the Cosmere future. If we were to take Lumar as being the home before Roshar, Emerald Sea  would be taking place something like at least 3,500 years in the past relative to Roshar (and possibly a lot older depending on when Iri became a Silver Kingdom)

I would be curious to know when did the Iri arrive on Roshar. Were they near the same time as the people from Ashyn? Did they perhaps replace the people from that region after a near compelte genocide during a desolation? There are so many people's on Roshar I sometimes woner if Cultivation and Honour sponsored Cosmere refugees to settle on Roshar in exchange for raw human labour and military power between desolations. 

 

Edited by teknopathetic
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Do we know for *sure* that the Iriali who are from off-world on Roshar are the same people who inhabited the Silver Kingdom of Iri? (As opposed to taking the name of the land they lived in, kind of like how the inhabitants of modern Britain aren't necessarily the original Celtic Britons  - but the name remained. )

Centuries post Stormlight is probably the most natural interpretation of that, but honestly I was thinking we were closer to the end of the cosmere timeline than that... Scadrial now is early 20th century tech, so I was figuring Era 3 would be 70-80 years away and Era 4 a couple centuries after that.

But if the Iriali lived on Lumar for a while after Roshar, and left 300 years ago, we must be beyond that.

But would there be like a 500-1000 year gap between Era 3 and Era 4 Mistborn?

Edited by cometaryorbit
typo + add more thoughts
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9 minutes ago, cometaryorbit said:

Do we know for *sure* that the Iriali who ate from off-world on Roshar are the same people who inhabited the Silver Kingdom of Iri? (As opposed to taking the name of the land they lived in, kind of like how the inhabitants of modern Britain aren't necessarily the original Celtic Britons  - but the name remained. )

We know Iri was a Silver Kingdom, so that seems fairly conclusive. It could be possible that the Iriali were known as something different before Roshar and changed their name to Iriali when they emmigrated, but that seems to go against the Wandering Tribe vibe Brandon is going for. 

I suppose there could have been native "Iriupidi" that were all but destrpoyed in a desolation, and then the Iriali showed up and took their place. However, that seems very unlikely to me. It would be a naming fluke that is too much of a mislead. 

The simplist solution is to assume this is a/the land after Roshar if we are considering timelines. I do admit there may be some issues with Tech, but at the same time Lumar is a backwater and may not have had many trade opportunities. 

Edited by teknopathetic
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