Quick Fix 59: Bachelor--Roshar edition!

[Kasimir]

How's it feel to pull Evil on the two times you returned to SE, Maili?  Well-played indeed. I'll honestly give it to you: you and Orlok had me fooled. More you than Orlok, and I'm impressed, even though I saw your work in LG74 from the GM's perspective. I was suspicious of Orlok for that C1 vote, but there was always that paranoid voice at the back of my head going, "Yes, but what if the busser is in <Illwei, Ash>?" You though? I'd just written you down as light Village in my head for a decent chunk of the game. I didn't even begin to relook at you in all seriousness until Aman pointed you out C3 and mentioned that you were shielding Orlok and giving him too easy a pass for apathy.

'Course, I assume I'm still alive because you guys have been gunning for a Kas ML this cycle, and Orlok's certainly been beating the war drums for an Archer ML. Well, and me this cycle - guess he's not picky, and I'm the easier target this time. I'm a student of the school of Alekhine, though. You guys want to ML me and win the game?

Fight me for it  I stood with the Village against the Elims in LG83, even when they were taking chunks out of us each cycle after the hammer. I made Evil Araris earn his victory against Szeth and myself in LG82. Even this tired and far from my best, I'm not gonna give the Village anything less this game.

6 hours ago, Mailliw73 said:

Looking at this, there's just no way I think that you aren't evil.

On the basis that I voted on every main train? I engaged with the cycle, made my arguments, developed my thoughts, and exchanged views with the other players. You yourself pointed out that Illwei and I shared the exact same voting pattern, and Illwei flipped Village. We could read this as an assertion that an Elim would always vote on the main train, but what reason do we have to believe that assertion is true? But hey, sure, let's look at the voting patterns, though.

C1:

Quote

Striker (8): Kas<1>, Mat<2>*, Bort<3>*, Aman<4>, Devo<5>, Illwei<6>*, Ash<7>, Orlok<8>*
Ash (2): Experience, Striker
Illwei (1): The Unknown Aon
JNV (1): Maili
Experience (1): Thaid
Archer(1): JNV

This is the current state of my credences. And as I've mentioned, it makes sense: Orlok's vote came extremely late on C1. Anyone here played LG83? Remember the number of times Orlok didn't vote because he wasn't caught up? What do you think is different here? I submit: Orlok wanted to gain Village cred and sent in a last minute vote on Striker, bussing him.

Meanwhile, I commented that no one had taken my sidetrain bait. But I was being too hasty. Because now we see that someone did: Maili took my bait vote on JNV, no doubt because the team was trying to identify a viable CW to Striker. They weren't all going to put their eggs in the Archer basket, even with the last minute swing to Ash. The fact that Striker made a last minute Ash swap and no Elims voted alongside Striker should further point to the fact that Devo was right: the Elims scattered among the trains rather than clump up on any one train.

So this makes - in my eyes - Orlok the C1 busser, and Maili voted on a safe side-train, likely because he couldn't get on in time to swap, and/or the team was comfortable with the Scattering.

C2:

Quote

Thaid (5): Kas, Devo, Ash, Aman, Illwei
Ash (2): JNV, Archer

Here's the interesting one. What are the odds of a pure V/V train, Ash asks?

Apparently: more likely than you think. But this is easily explainable: neither Orlok nor Maili had particular interest in the trains precisely because it was V/V, and getting caught on a main train tends to be bad for Elims. In a superb display of Evil dgaf energy, Maili further points out that he was going to submit a vote on Exp - shying away from the Ash CW. ( I think it is possible that E!Maili was worried the Ash train would be more sizeable than expected, as there was some latent fog-of-war surrounding the train sizes. But I don't think one needs to accept this point to note that the lack of Evil investment is perfectly predictable from the fact it was V/V. The fact that we've been struggling to successfully lynch another Elim other than Striker, IMO, further lends credence to the view that the Elim strategy was to hang back and to let the Village cut our own throats for them - a strategic profile that highlights both Orlok and Maili.)

C3:

Quote

JNV (5): Kas, Archer, Experience, Maili, Illwei
The Unknown Aon (1): JNV
Maili (1): Ash
Aman (1): Aman
Illwei (1): Bort

What's interesting here is that we see a notable profile deviation, and one that will continue in later cycles. We can't say much about Orlok, as he was borderline inactive. I'm largely going to credit it to Maili having more available time, but I think it's also interesting that Maili first emerges onto the JNV main train in the same cycle he comes under pressure from Aman and Ash for the first time. (To be clear, I'm not saying this is the first time he votes JNV - I'm saying this is the first time he shows up on a main train, and I think it's no accident it accompanies increased pressure from other players.)

C4:

Quote

Experience (6): Kas, Archer, Ash, Maili, Illwei, Orlok
Illwei (2): The Unknown Aon, Bort
Archer(1): Experience

So, I am committed to the view that this cycle does involve Elim clumping, but I think it can be explained by the fact that Maili was more or less committed to an Experience push. I have no idea why Orlok ended up on Experience, but I'm committed to E!Orlok so I'm just going to move on. I don't particularly think there is much to say about this cycle, except to note that TUA and Archer should be considered softcleared to anyone paying attention, and this means that our main non-soft-cleared three: <Kas, Maili, Orlok> are all on the same train, so if it's damning, it's a shared guilt.

C5: 

Quote

Ash (4): Kas, Maili, Illwei, Orlok
Orlok (3): Ash, Archer, The Unknown Aon

Once more for the class - Archer and TUA in my view should be considered softcleared for voting Orlok this cycle, even before we bring in any further considerations like Archer being the favoured C1 Striker CW. 

I submit that Maili's aggression on Ash was meant to proactively push a train that would hopefully keep Orlok safe, given that Orlok had returned to activity and had drawn some flak off his C1 vote. I do think I am committed to a Maili/Orlok team pretty strongly - generally by sheer force of PoE.

13 minutes ago, Mailliw73 said:

But he did end up voting on him. I think that's been Kas's play so far. Play kind of a middle road during the cycle, pushing on various people in thread, and then consolidating on any bandwagon that appears. Especially last cycle, he'd have to have done that if Orlok was his teammate. If we don't get Kas now, we're done. Figuring out the third elim will have to wait till tomorrow, but I think Kas is our best bet. As a last resort of consolidation, I'd join you on Orlok if you wanted and refuse to vote Kas. 

But he did end up voting on him, to his regret, three whole cycles later, but I see that you're not very interested in accuracy while trying to get your favoured ML of me going off  

The name of the game is revising your credences. It's unsurprising to me you try to condemn me for it, since Elims already know alignments and therefore don't have to worry about credence revision. I've been unequivocal about my trusts of Aman and Archer, and a quick glance at my playhistory (LG83, AG8, MR56) will show that I do revise my credences and am stingy with those promoted to moderate Village credences. Even then, I did consider an E!Archer world C4 - I just decided that it was too outlandish for me to want to waste more time on it. If you don't keep pressure broad and push on various people in thread, then you don't get information. It's that simple. Given my voting habits, I'd argue it's the other way around - I don't consolidate on any bandwagon that appears, I've generally voted before it, e.g. C4, where I was an early pusher of Experience, alongside Archer. I've had to revise my credences on you, for instance, as you led me on a merry chase.

But hey, don't let me try to stop you  

6 hours ago, Archer said:

Kas then proceeded to be evil for seven straight years. 

Brave of you to assume I'd not walk out during that first game  

3 hours ago, Orlok Tsubodai said:

I’d note that seven other players also felt like Striker was the better choice to lynch - and would ask why Archer and Kas singled my vote out particularly as bussing. Clearly voting Striker was a common conclusion, and it wasn’t a wrong conclusion.

Joy to the world, I have to wrestle you and your teammate to try to keep the Village alive? C'mon man, surely this is unfair

Simply put, Orlok - you don't usually vote for the sake of voting. You've commented in previous games where you feel you don't have enough information to make a vote and declined to participate. The fact your behaviour is so different this time makes me think that it was alignment-motivated. And of course, in my case, I know now the busser is not Illwei or Ash, and it sure as hell ain't me, so I'm more or less committed to the fact it has to be you, even if that's information inaccessible to the thread and so not information I can use to convince the others that you are Evil.

25 minutes ago, Mailliw73 said:

Figuring out the third elim will have to wait till tomorrow, but I think Kas is our best bet. As a last resort of consolidation, I'd join you on Orlok if you wanted and refuse to vote Kas

In a game with secret voting, I smell hammer bait  

[Archer]

oh darn, I was going to write a ginormous post showing why those two are sus, but Kas went and did all the work, very upsetting 

:P. I feel like you specifically didn't need to do that because if you commit to v!me from C1 Striker interactions, then because of my and TUN's Orlock votes and your knowledge of your alignment, it has to be Mailliw and Orlok. But thanks for doing it anyway because I wasn't going to get to that. I saw TUN was on a few hours ago, so I'm hoping they put in a vote. 

Mailliw, v!you means there has to be e!Kas from my perspective, so you're better off putting your vote there to try and bait me. 

But honestly I'm just going off of POE and a solid read on Kas

[Mailliw73]

19 minutes ago, Kasimir said:

How's it feel to pull Evil on the two times you returned to SE, Maili?  Well-played indeed. I'll honestly give it to you: you and Orlok had me fooled. More you than Orlok, and I'm impressed, even though I saw your work in LG74 from the GM's perspective. I was suspicious of Orlok for that C1 vote, but there was always that paranoid voice at the back of my head going, "Yes, but what if the busser is in <Illwei, Ash>?" You though? I'd just written you down as light Village in my head for a decent chunk of the game. I didn't even begin to relook at you in all seriousness until Aman pointed you out C3 and mentioned that you were shielding Orlok and giving him too easy a pass for apathy.

'Course, I assume I'm still alive because you guys have been gunning for a Kas ML this cycle, and Orlok's certainly been beating the war drums for an Archer ML. Well, and me this cycle - guess he's not picky, and I'm the easier target this time. I'm a student of the school of Alekhine, though. You guys want to ML me and win the game?

C1:

Meanwhile, I commented that no one had taken my sidetrain bait. But I was being too hasty. Because now we see that someone did: Maili took my bait vote on JNV, no doubt because the team was trying to identify a viable CW to Striker. They weren't all going to put their eggs in the Archer basket, even with the last minute swing to Ash. The fact that Striker made a last minute Ash swap and no Elims voted alongside Striker should further point to the fact that Devo was right: the Elims scattered among the trains rather than clump up on any one train.

So this makes - in my eyes - Orlok the C1 busser, and Maili voted on a safe side-train, likely because he couldn't get on in time to swap, and/or the team was comfortable with the Scattering.

C3:

What's interesting here is that we see a notable profile deviation, and one that will continue in later cycles. We can't say much about Orlok, as he was borderline inactive. I'm largely going to credit it to Maili having more available time, but I think it's also interesting that Maili first emerges onto the JNV main train in the same cycle he comes under pressure from Aman and Ash for the first time. (To be clear, I'm not saying this is the first time he votes JNV - I'm saying this is the first time he shows up on a main train, and I think it's no accident it accompanies increased pressure from other players.)

 

But he did end up voting on him, to his regret, three whole cycles later, but I see that you're not very interested in accuracy while trying to get your favoured ML of me going off  

Like you said, there's no way I let Striker die like that if we're teammates. No matter my time availability, that's ridiculous of a play for me to make. And I gave Orlok a pass essentially because you did. C3 was the one I was ready to actually exe him because I realized Amanw as right, but then I figured I'd let the filter do it and then he came back. 

C1: Pretty sure I voted JNV before you ever mentioned it, obviously that's not evidence you'd accept, but I think it's true. 

C3: Actually I just stick to my JNV suspicions that I brought up in like my first actual game commentary post that wasn't about secret voting... Pressure from anyone doesn't bother me, that's the game. 

I thought Archer was referring to last cycle, no?

 

And here, I'm pretty committed now to a Kas-Orlok team that is trying to split Archer, TUA, and I so that you can hammer on me and win it. But, if you're not, that's fine. I suspect Orlok and have been secretly worried about him pocketing me with his commenting on his village read of me. I'm 100% down for an Orlok exe if you want. If you and Archer and TUA are with me, I don't care which of you is the elim that's lying (which it basically has to be you), since we'll still have 3 of us on him. I'm officially submitting a vote on him now. 

Edit: and of course you all start coming on as I'm going to bed. Then I work in the morning and the cycle ends right after my shift, but oh well. Kas or Orlok are votes I am committed to and I'll choose whichever TUA and/or Archer is open to. 

Kas's analysis of my play is entirely fabricated and impressive, but desperate in a final play to take this last exe and win. This is one hundred percent my playstyle and both Kas and Orlok have commented throughout how this is all right in line with me and how I'd play this and only now is Kas finding evidence to the contrary. 

Edited March 16, 2022 by Mailliw73

[Kasimir]

2 minutes ago, Archer said:

:P. I feel like you specifically didn't need to do that because if you commit to v!me from C1 Striker interactions, then because of my and TUN's Orlock votes and your knowledge of your alignment, it has to be Mailliw and Orlok. But thanks for doing it anyway because I wasn't going to get to that. I saw TUN was on a few hours ago, so I'm hoping they put in a vote. 

Tbf, yes, but you know, no one was taking Tuatara's votesplintering bait in end-game LG79 either, but it didn't stop me from writing a longpost outlining the reasons why accepting that bait was a Very Bad Idea  

But I also recognise that with Maili and Orlok's apparently gunning very hard for a ML of me, knowledge of my alignment may not be persuasive, so I figured I'd might as well actually get my thoughts down in a way that IDs why the team has to be them.

[Mailliw73]

30 minutes ago, Kasimir said:

But I also recognise that with Maili and Orlok's apparently gunning very hard for a ML of me, knowledge of my alignment may not be persuasive, so I figured I'd might as well actually get my thoughts down in a way that IDs why the team has to be them.

Otherwise known as keeping up Village appearances for one last push. My “gunning very hard” for you is pretty weak if I’ve totally moved off you and towards my supposed teammate. If you and archer are convinced of Orlok, why wouldn’t you join me on a vote for him? Even if I am lying about moving my vote, if you both do it, it’s the same situation we’re in now, I just survive till aftermath instead of him. Either way, it comes down to TUN. If I’m not lying and you do actually switch to Orlok with me, we know something wacky happened and TUN/Orlok deserve to win. 

@The Unknown Novel We really do need you here to jump on a vote one way or another. If you agree Archer about me, then whatever, that’s fine, I’ll concede that I should’ve made my analysis post a day earlier than I did and I’d have been on Kas and Orlok earlier and maybe in time. Or if I had only reversed the order I suspected them and Ash. 

[Kasimir]

22 minutes ago, Mailliw73 said:

Otherwise known as keeping up Village appearances for one last push. My “gunning very hard” for you is pretty weak if I’ve totally moved off you and towards my supposed teammate.

To be fair, that's what you're saying now. It looks like Orlok is making the main push, even as you shade me, met resistance, backed off, and tell Archer that you have to lynch me this cycle or:

1 hour ago, Mailliw73 said:

If we don't get Kas now, we're done.

So is this or is this not true? If we're 'done' if we don't ML me now, and I point to the fabricated sense of urgency there, then why are you suddenly fine with moving onto Orlok? I submit: this is a play for time to try to get me MLed the next cycle. You know who absolutely needs the Kas ML such that 'we're done' if it doesn't go through this cycle? An Elim. Because Archer and TUA should not be targets to anyone who has been remotely paying attention, meaning that both of you need to ML to win this game. [Edited to add: And the only target you have is me. God, do I feel loved  ]

I could make the same accusation of you. It's clear to me you're trying to offer to bus Orlok for Village cred now, after having defended him previously. I assume you'll kill Archer or TUN this cycle, and then try to get the survivor to ML me with you. What will happen when Orlok comes on, I wonder? Are both of you gambling on drawing TUN off to try to split the vote further? Doesn't matter to me. For the record, one way or another, I'm voting with Archer. It's that simple.

1 hour ago, Mailliw73 said:

Kas's analysis of my play is entirely fabricated and impressive, but desperate in a final play to take this last exe and win. This is one hundred percent my playstyle and both Kas and Orlok have commented throughout how this is all right in line with me and how I'd play this and only now is Kas finding evidence to the contrary. 

You keep referring to me as 'desperate.' Yet I'm not the one making repeated posts lobbying Archer and TUN. Are you a movie theatre? Because that's a hell of a lot of projection going on there  I've made my case, and done my best. Beyond that, it's his plan, and I'm following Archer come hell or high water. The Village can't afford to be divided.

I don't need to comment about players shifting playstyle for situational contingencies - LG83 is an excellent example where I kept insisting that missing a kill and N2ing Aman was not Araris's MO, only to discover Araris was Evil after all. I don't believe in holding on to a single datapoint when it's clear that the read is just plain wrong - the events of C5 and C6 definitively prove that I was wrong to clear you on the basis of playstyle.

Edited March 16, 2022 by Kasimir

[Mailliw73]

We’re done because this is lylo. It has to be and we need you or Orlok dead or we lose. I’m not trying to convince you at this point, Just making my case for TUN and hopefully Archer. Moving to Orlok is a much riskier play for village cred than just trying to convince TUN onto you. I don’t know how that could’ve been a better play but whatever. I’m headed to bed now and I’ll check in before I go to work but I won’t have time for more than a brief post then and maybe one right at the end of the cycle so unless TUN understand my argument I’ve conceded this game and I’ll vote with Archer too. Gg elims. Kas, you never get to say you can’t possibly be a good elim anymore.

[Kasimir]

18 minutes ago, Mailliw73 said:

We’re done because this is lylo. It has to be and we need you or Orlok dead or we lose. I’m not trying to convince you at this point, Just making my case for TUN and hopefully Archer. Moving to Orlok is a much riskier play for village cred than just trying to convince TUN onto you. I don’t know how that could’ve been a better play but whatever. I’m headed to bed now and I’ll check in before I go to work but I won’t have time for more than a brief post then and maybe one right at the end of the cycle so unless TUN understand my argument I’ve conceded this game and I’ll vote with Archer too. Gg elims. Kas, you never get to say you can’t possibly be a good elim anymore.

Except that your sense of urgency is tied to lynching me this cycle. Again, I quote:

2 hours ago, Mailliw73 said:

If we don't get Kas now, we're done

You specifically tie success this cycle to lynching me. But we know there are two Elims left. We lynch one, we go back for round two and lynch the other. I'm with Archer on you for consolidation purposes, and following his plan. I'm not wedded to lynching you specifically: I just feel it's important to make the case for both you and Orlok since both of you are trying to get me lynched to varying degrees. V!Maili should be indifferent between me and Orlok since all the Village needs to survive lylo is one Elim lynch. You slipped up here, and pressed too hard for, specifically, the ML on me, which your team needs to win this game.

18 minutes ago, Mailliw73 said:

Moving to Orlok is a much riskier play for village cred than just trying to convince TUN onto you. I don’t know how that could’ve been a better play but whatever.

Anatomy of a Village Loss, aka How To ML Kas:

Step 1. Insist Kas must be lynched this cycle or the Village is screwed.

Step 2. Back down from that strong claim after brawling with Kas and insist that Orlok is Evil.

2 hours ago, Mailliw73 said:

Figuring out the third elim will have to wait till tomorrow, but I think Kas is our best bet.

1 hour ago, Mailliw73 said:

If you and Archer and TUA are with me, I don't care which of you is the elim that's lying (which it basically has to be you)

Step 3: Waffle apparently about whether Kas is or is not Evil but suggest he has to be in parentheses, while accepting apparently an Evil TUN world as a possibility.

Step 4. Lynch teammate Orlok (wow, cold.)

Step 5. In the process, try to look Villagery by lobbying Archer and TUN repeatedly and seeking consensus.

Step 6. Orlok flips E, therefore accumulate Village cred.

Step 7: Cold-bloodedly NK Archer or TUN.

Step 7: Get survivor to lynch Kas.

Step 8: RIP Village.

¯\_(ツ)_/¯

Edited to add: Then again, maybe I'm too hasty. Maybe the point of this exercise is to NK me if I can't be MLed, bus Orlok, and then get Archer to turn on TUN or TUN on Archer, given your thoughts of an Evil TUN world. 

Edited March 16, 2022 by Kasimir

[Mailliw73]

I clearly didn’t get to sleep yet so one last thing because I can’t let the points rest as they are even if my vote is on myself and I’m not moving unless Archer does.

i did say success was tied to exeing you, I get it, you’ve quoted it repeatedly. That was an error sure, but I’ve clearly shown that I’m willing to take out Orlok and bussing is definitely the weaker play here. I was hesitant at that point to mention that Orlok is probably voting on me too as part of the hammer because I wanted to make it seem like there was more thread pressure on you and force Orlok to retract publicly, apparently that was the wrong move. 

my sense of urgency is NAI since if I’m village and die, we lose. If I’m elim and I die, we lose. You only pushing the elim side shows your one narrative regardless of the facts. I’m not sure where Archer fell into this tunnel (unless you’re somehow on a team and if so, I have no idea how he pulled this off) but your just reinforcing his points that you never noticed before. I can’t outtalk you, or out analyze you, definitely not in the lylo cycle in a game that I only started getting really into in the last two cycles. 

But I will note, as in the BT, you haven’t denied being evil. 

[Kasimir]

46 minutes ago, Mailliw73 said:

i did say success was tied to exeing you, I get it, you’ve quoted it repeatedly. That was an error sure, but I’ve clearly shown that I’m willing to take out Orlok and bussing is definitely the weaker play here. I was hesitant at that point to mention that Orlok is probably voting on me too as part of the hammer because I wanted to make it seem like there was more thread pressure on you and force Orlok to retract publicly, apparently that was the wrong move. 

I've pointed out extensively why bussing isn't the weaker play here, and secures your team a win no matter what. Even the appearance of being willing to bus earns you some measure of Village cred. At the risk of talking myself up a little, there's a reason I haven't died to a lynch unwillingly since 2014, and I guess both of you just found that out the hard way. Making a play for trust via bussing isn't the worst of the menu of options your team has. This allows you to NK me for being too stubborn to die as Plan B, and try to turn TUN and Archer on each other for the win.

46 minutes ago, Mailliw73 said:

my sense of urgency is NAI since if I’m village and die, we lose. If I’m elim and I die, we lose. You only pushing the elim side shows your one narrative regardless of the facts. I’m not sure where Archer fell into this tunnel (unless you’re somehow on a team and if so, I have no idea how he pulled this off) but your just reinforcing his points that you never noticed before. I can’t outtalk you, or out analyze you, definitely not in the lylo cycle in a game that I only started getting really into in the last two cycles. 

This is a blatant falsehood. If you're Evil and you die, your team doesn't lose: Orlok kills one of us, and then goes on to 2v1 the survivors. Probably explains why he's focused on lobbying TUN instead of Archer, in an attempt to splinter Village consensus. From the set-up though, I assume you're both banking on the fact you're better-placed to handle a 2v1, which isn't counterintuitive considering Orlok's focus on [Edited to add: longposts.]

Again, I repeat. Your sense of urgency is tied to lynching me specifically. You Elim-slipped there, and now you're trying to walk it back by claiming that I'm generally saying that a Villager shouldn't feel a sense of urgency at lylo. If V!Maili believes in E!Kas and E!Orlok, he has no reason to fabricate a sense of urgency while demanding a Kas lynch in particular. As far as he is concerned, he is indifferent between the two. But this makes sense for E!Maili. Given that there is no reasonable world in which you can sell the idea of TUN and Archer being Evil, I am the only viable target if your team wants to win this cycle. This is why you are so particularly urgent about lynching me. Because there is only one winning move for this cycle, and that is lynching me.

You suggesting I'm only pushing one narrative is laughable, since that's basically where you're at.

46 minutes ago, Mailliw73 said:

But I will note, as in the BT, you haven’t denied being evil. 

Do I need to? My play and my actions have shown I'm a Villager. I haven't the need to make unnecessary and performative declarations, and frankly, if my saying, "I'm not Evil" is enough to make you re-evaluate your priors, then you probably have bigger problems than just me.

But sure, if my claiming it publicly helps you, then so be it: I am a Villager, and you and Orlok are the two Elims we need to lynch to bring this home and win this.

Lesgo Village. Let's make this one count, for our fallen brethren.

Edited to add: To be clear, I'm not going to sugarcoat this. This is absolutely going to be an uphill climb for the Village. Your team is committed to splintering the vote, allowing you to hammer today, or to killing one of us (I personally suspect me, to try to motivate Archer and TUN to sus each other rather than you.) If we lynch you or Orlok today, we still have to deal with the survivor tomorrow, and in a world where we lynch you, I fully expect Orlok to also kill me in order to try to motivate TUN to buy Evil Archer.

Lylo always is an uphill climb for the Village. But we did it before in LG79, and we'll do it again.

Edited March 16, 2022 by Kasimir
formatting

[Kasimir]

Cards on the table time. This is what I think the Elim game plan is.

Plan A: Secure the ML.

They do this by forcing vote splintering, and then a hammer. I believe I'm the ML target of choice because both Archer and TUN are in theory persuadable onto me, whereas selling E!Archer or E!TUN risks alienating either Archer or TUN. (Not that it's stopping Orlok from trying to peddle an E!Archer theory to TUN, I notice.) Maili correctly points out he's not trying to persuade me because E!Maili and E!Orlok both know I know I'm not the busser, so by pure PoE, it has to be Orlok, with Maili as his teammate. This means that there is no point in trying to persuade me; I'm simply not as persuadable as Archer or TUN theoretically are.

Plan B: Bus Orlok/Maili

Plan B is not their main plain - it's their contingency plan. Nothing stops Maili from both claiming he will go onto Orlok (in other words, appearing to bus Orlok) and surveying for takers, while reserving his secret vote for a hammer if cracks appear in Village unity, e.g. if Orlok successfully persuades TUN onto me or Archer. I point out that bussing Orlok appears to be largely necessary if they want to win in the next cycle - this is largely because Orlok has locked himself onto an E!Archer/E!Kas team, antagonising both me and Archer, while Maili has more freedom to operate. The only way Maili (or Orlok) is not getting voted on next cycle by the survivors is if they look more Village than they currently do, in order to induce the survivors to split - because Maili doesn't have a good vote history, and has defended Orlok, the only solution for that is a bus. (I note that a failure to bus, as it were, if Village unity holds fast, is a sure-lose strategy for E!Maili and E!Orlok, given their current credibility deficit. I also note that a side-benefit of Maili trying to appear Village now by claiming willingness to bus Orlok is that V!Maili entails E!Kas, which means that if he can shift the current distribution of credences by working with Orlok to push me, they may still be able to return to Plan A by hammering me.)

Part of this however does boil down to the question of their final three for the next cycle. They obviously have a menu of kill targets here. Killing me or Archer could skew things in their favour by relying on TUN's activity levels. But that in itself is a gamble. If they don't like that gamble, they can kill TUN and try to turn Archer on me, via V!Maili entails E!Kas. (Or I suppose, me on Archer, but then they wouldn't have spent this time antagonising me.) I think this is a significant part of Maili's strategy right now. Low activity players are in principle less persuadable than higher activity ones.

FWIW, I do think this strategy is more dependent on Maili being the surviving Elim. I suspect it's because Orlok really has less room here, having been committed to E!Archer and E!me, thereby antagonising us. This might explain the particular directionality of their play.

In a way, Maili's not entirely wrong that bussing is weaker as a strategy, but he's being disingenuous, because the Elims are clearly planning to hedge their bets no matter the outcome of this cycle.

My point, and the reason why I categorically deny it is necessarily weaker is I think that he's really bet hedging right now, to set his team up for success no matter what the outcome of this cycle is. It's not guaranteed, but it's certainly a fairly friendly landscape for the team that somehow managed to poach Orlok from death last cycle. From a Village perspective, it's a fairly hostile landscape for us necessitating an uphill climb. The main solution has to be a commitment to lynching the survivor in the <Maili, Orlok> pool next cycle, if there is a next cycle. (On the supposition their Plan A fails.) But that's why the bus and the willingness to bus is bet-hedging: because the Elim team's main way of defeating this play is by stacking as much Village credit on Maili as they possibly can (potentially also shading their preferred next cycle ML target in the process), in the hopes of breaking Village willingness to commit to the 'lynch the survivor' strategy.

tldr; Maili sus, Orlok sus, reasons laid out earlier this cycle, whoever survives, lynch the other one next cycle. If we maintain cohesion and then refuse to deviate from this, we're in pretty good shape, I think.

This is worth a kel's life, if they do NK me

We've got this, Village. I believe in us. They thought they could break us. Let's show them how wrong they are!

[Orlok Tsubodai]

1 hour ago, Kasimir said:

tldr; Maili sus, Orlok sus, reasons laid out earlier this cycle, whoever survives, lynch the other one next cycle. If we maintain cohesion and then refuse to deviate from this, we're in pretty good shape, I think.

As far as I can see, the only reasoning laid out is here:

14 hours ago, Kasimir said:

• Orlok: This one's the kicker but also obvious and I regret not having the bandwidth to go ham on him last cycle, especially with the info we have now. Illwei flipped V. Ash flipped V. To me, it's extremely unlikely that the Elims did not bus, so as far as I'm concerned, he's our busser. Agreed with Archer that the fact I'm not NKed is likely because Orlok was aggressively pushing me for the lynch - failing which, I note that Orlok and potentially Maili are two players I'd expect to spare me from a NK. Wouldn't put it past Orlok to want to face me in a lynch, even if I can't give him the kind of fight Aman could.

And here:

7 hours ago, Kasimir said:

How's it feel to pull Evil on the two times you returned to SE, Maili?  Well-played indeed. I'll honestly give it to you: you and Orlok had me fooled. More you than Orlok, and I'm impressed, even though I saw your work in LG74 from the GM's perspective. I was suspicious of Orlok for that C1 vote, but there was always that paranoid voice at the back of my head going, "Yes, but what if the busser is in <Illwei, Ash>?" You though? I'd just written you down as light Village in my head for a decent chunk of the game. I didn't even begin to relook at you in all seriousness until Aman pointed you out C3 and mentioned that you were shielding Orlok and giving him too easy a pass for apathy.

'Course, I assume I'm still alive because you guys have been gunning for a Kas ML this cycle, and Orlok's certainly been beating the war drums for an Archer ML. Well, and me this cycle - guess he's not picky, and I'm the easier target this time. I'm a student of the school of Alekhine, though. You guys want to ML me and win the game?

Fight me for it  I stood with the Village against the Elims in LG83, even when they were taking chunks out of us each cycle after the hammer. I made Evil Araris earn his victory against Szeth and myself in LG82. Even this tired and far from my best, I'm not gonna give the Village anything less this game.

On the basis that I voted on every main train? I engaged with the cycle, made my arguments, developed my thoughts, and exchanged views with the other players. You yourself pointed out that Illwei and I shared the exact same voting pattern, and Illwei flipped Village. We could read this as an assertion that an Elim would always vote on the main train, but what reason do we have to believe that assertion is true? But hey, sure, let's look at the voting patterns, though.

C1:

This is the current state of my credences. And as I've mentioned, it makes sense: Orlok's vote came extremely late on C1. Anyone here played LG83? Remember the number of times Orlok didn't vote because he wasn't caught up? What do you think is different here? I submit: Orlok wanted to gain Village cred and sent in a last minute vote on Striker, bussing him.

Meanwhile, I commented that no one had taken my sidetrain bait. But I was being too hasty. Because now we see that someone did: Maili took my bait vote on JNV, no doubt because the team was trying to identify a viable CW to Striker. They weren't all going to put their eggs in the Archer basket, even with the last minute swing to Ash. The fact that Striker made a last minute Ash swap and no Elims voted alongside Striker should further point to the fact that Devo was right: the Elims scattered among the trains rather than clump up on any one train.

So this makes - in my eyes - Orlok the C1 busser, and Maili voted on a safe side-train, likely because he couldn't get on in time to swap, and/or the team was comfortable with the Scattering.

C2:

Here's the interesting one. What are the odds of a pure V/V train, Ash asks?

Apparently: more likely than you think. But this is easily explainable: neither Orlok nor Maili had particular interest in the trains precisely because it was V/V, and getting caught on a main train tends to be bad for Elims. In a superb display of Evil dgaf energy, Maili further points out that he was going to submit a vote on Exp - shying away from the Ash CW. ( I think it is possible that E!Maili was worried the Ash train would be more sizeable than expected, as there was some latent fog-of-war surrounding the train sizes. But I don't think one needs to accept this point to note that the lack of Evil investment is perfectly predictable from the fact it was V/V. The fact that we've been struggling to successfully lynch another Elim other than Striker, IMO, further lends credence to the view that the Elim strategy was to hang back and to let the Village cut our own throats for them - a strategic profile that highlights both Orlok and Maili.)

C3:

What's interesting here is that we see a notable profile deviation, and one that will continue in later cycles. We can't say much about Orlok, as he was borderline inactive. I'm largely going to credit it to Maili having more available time, but I think it's also interesting that Maili first emerges onto the JNV main train in the same cycle he comes under pressure from Aman and Ash for the first time. (To be clear, I'm not saying this is the first time he votes JNV - I'm saying this is the first time he shows up on a main train, and I think it's no accident it accompanies increased pressure from other players.)

C4:

So, I am committed to the view that this cycle does involve Elim clumping, but I think it can be explained by the fact that Maili was more or less committed to an Experience push. I have no idea why Orlok ended up on Experience, but I'm committed to E!Orlok so I'm just going to move on. I don't particularly think there is much to say about this cycle, except to note that TUA and Archer should be considered softcleared to anyone paying attention, and this means that our main non-soft-cleared three: <Kas, Maili, Orlok> are all on the same train, so if it's damning, it's a shared guilt.

C5: 

Once more for the class - Archer and TUA in my view should be considered softcleared for voting Orlok this cycle, even before we bring in any further considerations like Archer being the favoured C1 Striker CW. 

I submit that Maili's aggression on Ash was meant to proactively push a train that would hopefully keep Orlok safe, given that Orlok had returned to activity and had drawn some flak off his C1 vote. I do think I am committed to a Maili/Orlok team pretty strongly - generally by sheer force of PoE.

But he did end up voting on him, to his regret, three whole cycles later, but I see that you're not very interested in accuracy while trying to get your favoured ML of me going off  

The name of the game is revising your credences. It's unsurprising to me you try to condemn me for it, since Elims already know alignments and therefore don't have to worry about credence revision. I've been unequivocal about my trusts of Aman and Archer, and a quick glance at my playhistory (LG83, AG8, MR56) will show that I do revise my credences and am stingy with those promoted to moderate Village credences. Even then, I did consider an E!Archer world C4 - I just decided that it was too outlandish for me to want to waste more time on it. If you don't keep pressure broad and push on various people in thread, then you don't get information. It's that simple. Given my voting habits, I'd argue it's the other way around - I don't consolidate on any bandwagon that appears, I've generally voted before it, e.g. C4, where I was an early pusher of Experience, alongside Archer. I've had to revise my credences on you, for instance, as you led me on a merry chase.

But hey, don't let me try to stop you  

Brave of you to assume I'd not walk out during that first game  

Joy to the world, I have to wrestle you and your teammate to try to keep the Village alive? C'mon man, surely this is unfair

Simply put, Orlok - you don't usually vote for the sake of voting. You've commented in previous games where you feel you don't have enough information to make a vote and declined to participate. The fact your behaviour is so different this time makes me think that it was alignment-motivated. And of course, in my case, I know now the busser is not Illwei or Ash, and it sure as hell ain't me, so I'm more or less committed to the fact it has to be you, even if that's information inaccessible to the thread and so not information I can use to convince the others that you are Evil.

In a game with secret voting, I smell hammer bait  

I don't think it's particularly uncharitable to read your argument as:

P1: One D1 vote was from an eliminator
P2: The D1 votes on Striker were: Striker (8): Kasimir, Matrim's dice, Devotary, Ash, Amanuensis, Illwei, Bort, Orlok
P3: Kas is not an eliminator
C1: Orlok is an eliminator (from P1, P2, P3)

P4: Orlok's vote was uncharacteristic, because he doesn't normally vote when he isn't caught up on the thread
C2: Orlok is an eliminator (from P4)

Looking at these in turn:

P1 is an assumption. It isn't necessarily true, in that two eliminators can exist in the three players who didn't vote for Striker. It was even less necessarily true in C4, when you started pushing the e!Orlok narrative, when Experience was still alive, and considered suspicious by you. To be clear to @The Unknown Novel and @Mailliw73, I'm not suggesting that P1 is actually wrong, but that v!Kas cannot rely on it as an assumption without first clearing two of Archer, TUN, and Maill this cycle, or three of Archer, TUN, Maill, and Experience in cycle 4.

In cycle 4, Kas voted on Experience, had a bad gut read on TUN, and was committed to reconsidering his village read of Mailliw. 

This cycle, Kas is suspicious of Mailliw, and clears TUN because of his vote on Orlok. Kas cannot rely on e!Orlok -> v!TUN without being able to conclude e!Orlok first. Kas cannot do this through P1, P2, P3 therefore C1 without circular logic, as he cannot know P1 without v!Archer + v!TUN, which relies on e!Orlok - and so on. If Kas holds v!TUN, he <A> either has to have another reason for e!Orlok, or <B> TMI about TUN.

I'll come on to addressing P4, which addresses <A>, but would acknowledge that P1 might be a fair village assumption. However, assuming it, rather than proving it, takes us to:

A1: One D1 vote was from an eliminator
P5: The D1 votes on Striker were: Striker (8): Kasimir, Matrim's dice, Devotary, Ash, Amanuensis, Illwei, Bort, Orlok
P6: Kas is not an eliminator
C3: Orlok is an eliminator (from P5, P6)

Essentially, Kas' argument here is "Orlok is an eliminator because I'm not". In this post, I intend to challenge P4 (that my vote makes me evil), but will go on in another post to try to show that P6 is untrue.

Looking then at:

P4: Orlok's vote was uncharacteristic, because he doesn't normally vote when he isn't caught up on the thread
C2: Orlok is an eliminator (from P4)

Which given the above seems to be Kas' entire argument, I'd first point you all to this post, which I haven't seen anyone actually reply to or even acknowledge:

To specifically address Kas' points:

1) "Orlok's vote came extremely late on C1." Yes, it did, because as you note, and is obvious from this post, I was doing analysis on page one until 58 minutes before the end of the cycle. When, prior to that, would you have liked me to vote? The timing of my vote cannot be alignment indicative, because I could not have made it prior to having read the thread.

2) "Orlok wanted to gain Village cred and sent in a last minute vote on Striker" The timing of the vote, per my answer to 1), cannot be alignment indicative, so we have "Orlok wanted to gain Village cred and sent in a last minute vote on Striker." What makes my vote uniquely about getting village cred, over those of yourself, Devotary, Ashbringer, Illwei, or Bort? I don't see how announcing the vote pre-rollover ought to be seen as cred-seeking any more than placing it, as the vote (and so lynch of an eliminator) would show up in the write-up either way.  (for the record, I posted having committed to getting through the thread pre-rollover, to give a summary of my thoughts. I stated how my thinking had evolved (or not) on TUA, I noted my dislike of Experience's vote on Ashbringer (which I further note was remarked upon  in later cycles by players you read as village), and was explicit about the reasoning for my vote. 

To put it another way, your suspicion of me has to be either from the fact I voted, or from my posting about my vote pre-rollover.

I do not understand how posting about the vote is elim!indicative. If we take that I'm caught up enough to vote, you have to be arguing that it would be better for me not to give my thoughts when I could than to give them. I think this is a rather weak argument - both because my thoughts are purer before gaining information from rollover, and because if I'm NKd I can't show how they developed at all.

I don't think your suspicion can come from the vote itself, either. If it was possible for yourself, Matrim, Devotary, Ashbringer, Amanuensis, Illwei and Bort to look at the C1 thread and find Striker tonally suspicious, why is it uniquely elim indicative for me to come to the same (correct) conclusion. You have observed me identify Hyena, Gorilla, Archer and Stick as eliminators in AG8 and MR56, so you aren't making the (implausible) argument that my catching an eliminator isn't normal.

Consequently, your sole rationale for my being an eliminator (and so clearing TUN, and all of the above), is that I stopped my post by post analysis and tried to catch up on the thread pre-rollover.

@Mailliw73, @The Unknown Novel (not that I don't think reading the above is necessary - it's written for you), but to restate very clearly: The sole reason for Kas' suspicion of me is that I ceased post-by-post analysis to vote before the end of the cycle.

To address that point: 

1) It isn't a good thing that I'm not normally caught up in time to make an informed vote. It isn't helpful to the village that I can't contribute until later cycles. It makes me harder to analyse, and doesn't allow me to influence early lynches. I still think there's a place for it - I find it forces me to think in depth about each player, and helps me track progression, but it is not more useful to the village than having my thoughts be as current as they can be.

2) In the last few games I've played (AG8, MR56, LG83), I haven't voted C1 because I haven't been able to be current in time for the vote. In this game I had actually been able to devote time to the game on cycle one, and was actually around in the run up to rollover. I had time to catch up, and so did.

In summary:

Kas cannot rely on 
P1: One D1 vote was from an eliminator
P2: The D1 votes on Striker were: Striker (8): Kasimir, Matrim's dice, Devotary, Ash, Amanuensis, Illwei, Bort, Orlok
P3: Kas is not an eliminator
C1: Orlok is an eliminator (from P1, P2, P3)
To conclude I'm an eliminator, because P1 is impossible without knowledge of TUN's alignment.

Kas claims to get TUN's alignment as an inference from e!Orlok, but his only way to conclude e!Orlok is from:

P4: Orlok's vote was uncharacteristic, because he doesn't normally vote when he isn't caught up on the thread
C2: Orlok is an eliminator (from P4)

I've shown above that P4 cannot be because my vote was on Striker, or because I posted that I was voting for Striker before rollover. Consequently, Kas can only be concluding P4 from the fact I stopped post-by-post analysis to catch up and vote.

I've demonstrated why this is not a credible belief for Kas to hold, and do not believe he does. I contend instead that:

1) Kas is an eliminator
2) Kas believed my vote could be spun as elim-indicative, and didn't truly think about it
3) Kas' arguments (as shown above) don't make sense because they're based on an incorrect premise, and TMI about TUN.

Having, I hope, demonstrated that Kas is not arguing e!Orlok in good faith, I will now look at Kas' own posts to demonstrate further e!Kas.

[Mailliw73]

I have nothing else to say. I’ve tapped out. Kas is too over-confident for V!Kas personality but we can exe me, that’s fine. See you in the aftermath. 

[Kasimir]

Should I have RPed as Kassandra? Because I think I absolutely saw that coming. Hello there, Orlok!

So, here’s the thing. I think it’s funny that Orlok’s trying to put pressure on me for the basic argument, because I’ve acknowledged it is a good argument. The downside is that it relies on information that is not publicly accessible to the entire thread: specifically, knowledge of my own alignment. In other words, I don’t - realistically - and never have expected it to be convincing to others. But by my own lights, this is a perfectly reasonable argument, and one I’m extremely confident in.

I just want to briefly walk us through the premises before I go to Orlok’s tackling my public variant of the argument, because I think it’s worthwhile reinforcing why this is a perfectly reasonable argument by V!Kas’s own lights.

Here’s the private variant. I’m using Orlok’s notation here in order to engage with what he’s saying:

2 hours ago, Orlok Tsubodai said:

A1: One D1 vote was from an eliminator
P5: The D1 votes on Striker were: Striker (8): Kasimir, Matrim's dice, Devotary, Ash, Amanuensis, Illwei, Bort, Orlok
P6: Kas is not an eliminator
C3: Orlok is an eliminator (from P5, P6)

This…isn’t an especially objectionable argument. As Orlok himself points out, C3 is reasonable and follows very tightly from A1, P5, and P6. P5 is publicly available information and is not up for dispute in any reasonable world. A1, too, is a perfectly reasonable assumption: I note that since Orlok has been vocal about how he thinks I’m Evil, he, too, is committed to A1. 

The real kicker is P6. Maili’s been sussing me for confidence, but of all the premises in this argument, I’d have to be certifiably insane not to have rock solid credences in P6! This just is the information available to me in my GM PM and is therefore not something I’m open to doubting.

The bottom line I want to point out here is this: from my point of view, Orlok is Evil. The premises that commit me to E!Orlok are not in fact unreasonable. It is therefore eminently reasonable for me to consider Archer and TUA softcleared off their voting patterns, even before we talk about Archer being Striker’s designated C1 CW! The real difficulty is just that P6 is not accessible to another player who isn’t me. In other words, P6 is only persuasive insofar as a player has V!Kas credences.

So: Orlok is, as well, right to note that in general, the publicly available reasoning that identifies him as suspicious and as the Elim who bussed Striker C1 boils down to a hodge-podge of points:

• That the timing of Orlok’s vote was suspicious
   
• That Orlok’s vote itself is a deviation from Orlok’s standard voting behaviour, and the best explanation for it is not in fact the considerations that Orlok mentions but that it was alignment-motivated (i.e. because Orlok is Evil.)

Here’s the issue, Orlok. I don’t think that you having an explanation for the behaviour itself necessarily makes it much less suspicious. That is to say, to be brutally upfront: we know that Striker was very likely bussed, this was likely a decision made late in the game. I don’t think it’s an unreasonable statement to make: I’ve made my thoughts clear several times about how teams don’t proceed to bussing off the bat. There’s a natural progression there from the lack of available alternatives or off-ramps. With that being said, the logical inference is that the suspicious votes are the ones which are late-arriving, reflecting the late decision to bus Striker. Let’s look at what we have player claims for:

Quote

Striker (8): Kas<1>, Mat<2>*, Bort<3>*, Aman<4>, Devo<5>, Illwei<6>*, Ash<7>, Orlok<8>*

Notice that every single late-voter, if we take Devo as an absolutely arbitrary demarcation point for late votes has flipped Village. There’s only one person left who hasn’t, and that’s Orlok.

And you’re absolutely right that I’m arguing it’s uncharacteristic for you to drop everything and speedread and vote. 

2 hours ago, Orlok Tsubodai said:

1) "Orlok's vote came extremely late on C1." Yes, it did, because as you note, and is obvious from this post, I was doing analysis on page one until 58 minutes before the end of the cycle. When, prior to that, would you have liked me to vote? The timing of my vote cannot be alignment indicative, because I could not have made it prior to having read the thread.

I absolutely agree with this. But this is a point about your usual playstyle and imperatives to adapt, rather than whether or not your playstyle is good. Orlok bro, I’m absolutely down for you being able to participate more in C1. I’m not at any point saying it’s a bad thing that you don’t. But I am saying your playstyle makes it unusual that you do, and that deviation is noteworthy especially when this places you in a late-voting window (which the busser must logically originate from.)

2 hours ago, Orlok Tsubodai said:

2) In the last few games I've played (AG8, MR56, LG83), I haven't voted C1 because I haven't been able to be current in time for the vote. In this game I had actually been able to devote time to the game on cycle one, and was actually around in the run up to rollover. I had time to catch up, and so did.

Except that’s not really what happened, is it? You specifically talk about skimming the thread, and then proceeding from there to vote. That, I notice, is a deviation from your usual attempts at catching up: rollover for MR56, for instance, was absolutely comparable to this one in terms of timing. You didn’t just abort the post-by-post analysis, settled for a skim, and then leaped to vote off that basis.

Now, you could be arguing that I’m unfairly penalising you for a shift in your playstyle that makes you happier. I honestly think that could be true simultaneously with you also being Evil and also having bussed Striker. I also think that if we cull down the late-voting pool, it does point fairly strikingly towards you.

Because at the end of the day, even if I can’t convince the thread of it, I know P6 is true, which entails to me that despite you providing possible explanations for your vote and the particular timing of it, you have to be the busser.

[The Unknown Ajah]

@Kasimir @Archer, I agree with your two arguments, and I came to my own suspicions of Orlok, which are we voting, if I don't get back in time to switch, know that I'm voting Orlok.

[Orlok Tsubodai]

1 hour ago, Kasimir said:

Should I have RPed as Kassandra? Because I think I absolutely saw that coming. Hello there, Orlok!

So, here’s the thing. I think it’s funny that Orlok’s trying to put pressure on me for the basic argument, because I’ve acknowledged it is a good argument. The downside is that it relies on information that is not publicly accessible to the entire thread: specifically, knowledge of my own alignment. In other words, I don’t - realistically - and never have expected it to be convincing to others. But by my own lights, this is a perfectly reasonable argument, and one I’m extremely confident in.

I just want to briefly walk us through the premises before I go to Orlok’s tackling my public variant of the argument, because I think it’s worthwhile reinforcing why this is a perfectly reasonable argument by V!Kas’s own lights.

Here’s the private variant. I’m using Orlok’s notation here in order to engage with what he’s saying:

This…isn’t an especially objectionable argument. As Orlok himself points out, C3 is reasonable and follows very tightly from A1, P5, and P6. P5 is publicly available information and is not up for dispute in any reasonable world. A1, too, is a perfectly reasonable assumption: I note that since Orlok has been vocal about how he thinks I’m Evil, he, too, is committed to A1. 

The real kicker is P6. Maili’s been sussing me for confidence, but of all the premises in this argument, I’d have to be certifiably insane not to have rock solid credences in P6! This just is the information available to me in my GM PM and is therefore not something I’m open to doubting.

The bottom line I want to point out here is this: from my point of view, Orlok is Evil. The premises that commit me to E!Orlok are not in fact unreasonable. It is therefore eminently reasonable for me to consider Archer and TUA softcleared off their voting patterns, even before we talk about Archer being Striker’s designated C1 CW! The real difficulty is just that P6 is not accessible to another player who isn’t me. In other words, P6 is only persuasive insofar as a player has V!Kas credences.

So: Orlok is, as well, right to note that in general, the publicly available reasoning that identifies him as suspicious and as the Elim who bussed Striker C1 boils down to a hodge-podge of points:

• That the timing of Orlok’s vote was suspicious
   
• That Orlok’s vote itself is a deviation from Orlok’s standard voting behaviour, and the best explanation for it is not in fact the considerations that Orlok mentions but that it was alignment-motivated (i.e. because Orlok is Evil.)

Here’s the issue, Orlok. I don’t think that you having an explanation for the behaviour itself necessarily makes it much less suspicious. That is to say, to be brutally upfront: we know that Striker was very likely bussed, this was likely a decision made late in the game. I don’t think it’s an unreasonable statement to make: I’ve made my thoughts clear several times about how teams don’t proceed to bussing off the bat. There’s a natural progression there from the lack of available alternatives or off-ramps. With that being said, the logical inference is that the suspicious votes are the ones which are late-arriving, reflecting the late decision to bus Striker. Let’s look at what we have player claims for:

Notice that every single late-voter, if we take Devo as an absolutely arbitrary demarcation point for late votes has flipped Village. There’s only one person left who hasn’t, and that’s Orlok.

And you’re absolutely right that I’m arguing it’s uncharacteristic for you to drop everything and speedread and vote. 

I absolutely agree with this. But this is a point about your usual playstyle and imperatives to adapt, rather than whether or not your playstyle is good. Orlok bro, I’m absolutely down for you being able to participate more in C1. I’m not at any point saying it’s a bad thing that you don’t. But I am saying your playstyle makes it unusual that you do, and that deviation is noteworthy especially when this places you in a late-voting window (which the busser must logically originate from.)

Except that’s not really what happened, is it? You specifically talk about skimming the thread, and then proceeding from there to vote. That, I notice, is a deviation from your usual attempts at catching up: rollover for MR56, for instance, was absolutely comparable to this one in terms of timing. You didn’t just abort the post-by-post analysis, settled for a skim, and then leaped to vote off that basis.

Now, you could be arguing that I’m unfairly penalising you for a shift in your playstyle that makes you happier. I honestly think that could be true simultaneously with you also being Evil and also having bussed Striker. I also think that if we cull down the late-voting pool, it does point fairly strikingly towards you.

Because at the end of the day, even if I can’t convince the thread of it, I know P6 is true, which entails to me that despite you providing possible explanations for your vote and the particular timing of it, you have to be the busser.

Afternoon, Kas.

---

To better address your argument, I first want to summarise what I think you’re saying:

I’m trying to suggest that the “private variant” of your argument (Arg. 1) is logically flawed, and therefore that you are evil

Arg. 1 is not flawed

That I am also committed to the necessary assumption of Arg. 1 (A1).

You are therefore right to hold e!Orlok from Arg. 1

Knowing this, I sought to conflate the “private variant” of your argument with the “public variant” (Arg. 2)

I’m right that the core of Arg. 2 is:

The timing of my vote was suspicious

The vote itself was a deviation from v!Orlok’s historic behaviour

Even though I’ve explained the deviation, the deviation itself remains suspicious

---

I’m going to address these in turn.

On 1, 2, I think you’re deliberately missing my point. I am not arguing that the logical structure of Arg. 1 is invalid. I am arguing that you assumed A1 before your own views permitted you to do so, and therefore that your reliance on the private variant of your argument cannot be your true motivation for pushing e!Orlok in C4. As above, I contend that you are the elim on the D1 Striker train, and that you have TMI about TUN, which you relied on to produce your process of elimination leading to me.

Quote

A1, too, is a perfectly reasonable assumption: I note that since Orlok has been vocal about how he thinks I’m Evil, he, too, is committed to A1

I think this is a further demonstration that you’re not arguing in good faith. You (purport) to have A1 by assumption. If I am committed to A1, it is as C4, from:

P7: Kas is evil
P8: Kas voted on Striker
C4: One of the voters on Striker was evil

Addressing 6. is not so easily done by its subjective nature, but again I want to call out you arguing in bad faith (which again, I can’t see from v!Kas):

Quote

Except that’s not really what happened, is it? You specifically talk about skimming the thread, and then proceeding from there to vote. That, I notice, is a deviation from your usual attempts at catching up: rollover for MR56, for instance, was absolutely comparable to this one in terms of timing. You didn’t just abort the post-by-post analysis, settled for a skim, and then leaped to vote off that basis.

I think it’s reaching to argue that I didn’t catch up on the thread because I used the term “skimming”. It absolutely was a skim, compared to my normal approach, and an hour for three pages is less than a minute per post. Would I have liked longer? Absolutely. I didn’t have longer, but I did have time to read the thread, and to make a judgement. 

I can’t prove that trying to catch up was a playstyle shift motivated by my wish to contribute more helpfully.. I can only note how quickly you rushed to assume my motivation was bussing, and that I think that comes from wanting to paint me as a ML target.

I also think it worth circling back to your own vote on Striker. I don’t know your playstyle well enough to call out specifics, but I do want to quote the following from C2 (as you didn’t provide any D1 argument against Striker):

Quote

 

I see I'm not the only one enjoying the secret voting mechanics here

Shout-out to @Thaidakar the Ghostblood, @Mailliw73, both of whom absolutely did not signal this at all as well.

So, long story short - did not like the way Striker cast sus on Mat for doing what seemed to be a perfectly natural re-eval process and one that I myself had gone through, hmmed over Aman's CTA post, and YOLO-voted Striker in the PM. I decided to be more bearish on Striker in the thread to see if anyone would explicitly talk me onto Striker (or onto a side train), and publicly advertised my side-train vote pool to see if anyone would bite. (Nope.) EoC convinced me to stay put as I wanted to settle the issue and felt it was a decent enough place to go for a C1 vote. I think the great thing about anon voting is that if you sound determined enough and signal your pool, it places some vote pressure on the players you've identified, even if you have no intention of actually final voting them  

So I channelled my inner kel I guess.

 

Quote

 

Pending confirmation from Araris, yeah. I more or less highlighted my reasoning in my post: I generally agreed with your CTA post, but in the hmm way that accompanies strong C1 pushes from players who - well, yeah, look, I'm just usually paranoid when a player who is a deadly Elim (persuasive, unlikely for me to detect off the bat) is asking me (general to be fair) to vote for X, even if I pragmatically think he's V. I think I ascribe that to negative formative experiences in SE, as everyone is very familiar with by now It wasn't anywhere near as bad as how I freaked out when you kept trying to get me and everyone to go on Archer in MR56 C3 but still it gave me pause.

But the point that swung me, or that I found decisive for me was the way he painted Mat as sus for re-evaluating his assessment of Archer's plan. I'd gone through that exact same thought process so obviously did not find it Evil and just found it a natural reaction. That with the CTA made me feel it was worth plopping down a YOLO vote on Striker (so you can roughly guess the time interval, even if Araris doesn't allow timestamps.) [If this is helpful, shortly after this. Edit: Got ninjaed by Araris, so this was 1027hrs my time, two minutes after the post I just linked.]

Honestly I wasn't dead sold because it was C1 and sometimes it just feels like you're (general you) tunnelling and I know I have a tendency to overfocus on stuff and then ML players on that basis, but subsequent interactions just didn't look all that better (see: lack of fog of war), and ultimately I felt: A. it was a decent enough reason for a C1 vote (as C1 votes are), B. despite inducement to Archer and Ash, with myself being more amenable to Ash, I just wanted to get the Striker flip, so I didn't bother changing

 

These were a large part of my e!Kas read yesterday. @The Unknown Novel, I get a very, very clear read of Kas feeling a need to over-explain his vote.

This, along with Striker’s own very clear equivocation and distancing from Kas:

Quote

Keredin: One of the men of our little group of wannabe spouses. Seems far too interested in swords for my taste, but Adolin would love him for that. Be wary of that fact. As for his thoughts on the murderers, if they do exist, I agree with him that Nid's random strategy of randomly searching for the murderes does not make sense. And if we did do that, why would it only be effective the first day? I like Keredin's thoughts, however, he has not said much else since, so I need to be wary of him still.

Are enough to make me conclude with confidence e!Kas, and I think are harder to explain than my wishing to engage in a more productive playstyle.

I’m obviously not going to convince Kas of his own guilt, but @The Unknown Novel, please read Kas’ post, and the above, and at least consider a world of e!Kas.

[Kasimir]

7 minutes ago, The Unknown Novel said:

@Kasimir @Archer, I agree with your two arguments, and I came to my own suspicions of Orlok, which are we voting, if I don't get back in time to switch, know that I'm voting Orlok.

Bro, Archer and I are currently on Maili - Archer doesn't seem to be on and no idea if he'll get back in time to make the switch, either. We can't afford to divide the vote right now, or they get a 50-50 shot at MLing one of us and winning this!

Edited to add: Will try to stay up for rollover, but no guarantees. 2AM, and it's been a long week, and I really just need to catch up on sleep.

Ah, ye gods, and Orlok is still coming at me like a Mando'ad. Just what I wanted to do on my Wednesday night.

Edited March 16, 2022 by Kasimir

[+Lotus]

22 minute warning

[Kasimir]

Ninjaed by Lotus, and a bit shorter than I'd wish, probably because it's late and I'm running low on energy.

4 minutes ago, Orlok Tsubodai said:

On 1, 2, I think you’re deliberately missing my point. I am not arguing that the logical structure of Arg. 1 is invalid. I am arguing that you assumed A1 before your own views permitted you to do so, and therefore that your reliance on the private variant of your argument cannot be your true motivation for pushing e!Orlok in C4. As above, I contend that you are the elim on the D1 Striker train, and that you have TMI about TUN, which you relied on to produce your process of elimination leading to me.

In all honesty, I don't believe I am. I'm rehashing the logical structure of Arg. 1 just to revisit for the class why it's perfectly reasonable for me - as of this cycle - to have insanely strong E!Orlok credences, to the point of utter dgaf. It would be insane tunnelling in any other context. It's not anymore once Ash and Illwei both flipped Village. So I'm not trying to credit to you any disputation of the logical structure of Arg. 1 - I'm just revisiting and reminding everyone why it's perfectly rational for me to be this dead set on E!Orlok.

Quote

A1: One D1 vote was from an eliminator

Except why would I be assuming A1 before my own views permitted me to do so? Almost everyone assumed there was an Elim busser in the pool the moment the vote results came out. An eight vote train being a pure train is absolutely insane. Sure, I think it's rational to accept there's a very small side-possibility the train was pure, but it was not in any point in serious dispute that everyone believed there was an Elim on the C1 Striker train, and I challenge you to show me otherwise - apart from Illwei's theorising about the Devo kill, which got her sussed by Aman, no one seriously regarded that as a contentious assumption, and it raises my hackles that you're using this to sus me.

12 minutes ago, Orlok Tsubodai said:

I can’t prove that trying to catch up was a playstyle shift motivated by my wish to contribute more helpfully.. I can only note how quickly you rushed to assume my motivation was bussing, and that I think that comes from wanting to paint me as a ML target.

Was it a rush? I've been perfectly clear that I regarded the D1 Striker train as containing one Elim. The manner and timing of your vote would have attracted some measure of suspicion in any other player in the same context - probably unless you were Devo, who's known for these things. I think it's disingenuous not to even acknowledge that. I've been consistent as well in side-eying Fifth for a similar last minute vote (though this was on a Villager) in LG83. The fact this is a deviation from your standard play should only attract more attention, though I'll grant that charitably, I don't want to have playstyle differences being the main driving force behind suspecting a player, so fair enough, I'll back off on the deviation point in particular. As I gained more reasons to improve my reads on other players in the suspect pool, (e.g. the timing of Bort's vote), it's only reasonable for my E!Orlok credences in turn to increase, because the suspect pool narrows.

For instance, around C4, when my reads of Illwei and Ash improved, it's only reasonable of me to start squinting at you more. Illwei's and Ash's flips only cemented this into utter certainty.

19 minutes ago, Orlok Tsubodai said:

These were a large part of my e!Kas read yesterday. @The Unknown Novel, I get a very, very clear read of Kas feeling a need to over-explain his vote.

Two comments:

1. I am careful about documenting my reasons for taking risks/doing weird plays. My longpost with spoilered sections explaining my reasoning and methods and motivations for the D3 Meerkat play in AG8 was an instance of this.

2. E!Kas has a better play than this: E!Kas puts Striker in his suspect pool, never actually votes on Striker, pushes two other alternate trains forward to varying degrees of aggressiveness, and claims that RNGesus didn't fall on Striker. It also allows him to retain the possibility of bussing Striker without drawing any attention at all if he so wishes, since it's perfectly consistent that he'd have voted on Striker given Striker was in his pool of three.

I'd say the fact you're ignoring this makes me raise my eyebrows, coming from a player like you, but let's be honest - I know you're Evil, so that's more or less a given.

[Archer]

36 minutes ago, The Unknown Novel said:

@Kasimir @Archer, I agree with your two arguments, and I came to my own suspicions of Orlok, which are we voting, if I don't get back in time to switch, know that I'm voting Orlok.

Glad I checked in. We don't have time to argue, so I am now voting Orlok. Really hope that's not a typo. @The Unknown Novel

[Kasimir]

1 minute ago, Archer said:

Glad I checked in. We don't have time to argue, so I am now voting Orlok. Really hope that's not a typo. @The Unknown Novel

Lesgo. Orlok.

[Mailliw73]

I’m so storming confused. I’ve been talking myself in circles this entire cycle trying to figure out the most logical pairing of elims and I can’t. I sold myself on Orlok and Kas but why would they spend this amount of time and energy debating when they could’ve coasted to a win with much less of a show? I am having a hard time imagining a world where Kas isn’t evil though. 

Kas and Archer? Sure but then Archer played a deep wolf game that was impressive as it was risky. 

TUA and anyone is another risky one and banks on him coasting under the radar. 

TUA and Archer is a supreme matchup and however you got Orlok, Kas, and I to duke it out, you are the masters of this game. 

Archer/Orlok makes no sense but I guess is an option? 

I can basically argue myself into thinking it’s any of these or none of these and that’s what I’ve been struggling with all cycle. I have gone back and forth over and over and don’t even know. So I’m just assuming this game is over and it was a pleasure y’all. 

[+Lotus]

Cycle is closed

[+Lotus]

Cycle 7

No write up again today either, sorry. (if anyone in the dead doc feels like writing something up for me, go for it)

- - - 

Orlok was not given a rose (voted out)! They were a Ghostblood spy 

The Unknown Order was not given a rose (killed)! They were a Honest participant! 

- - -

 

Vote Count: 

Orlok (4): Kasimir, Unknown Aon, Archer, Malliw

Malliw (1): Orlok

 

- - - 

 

Player list: 

 

1. Kasimir-- Keredin

2. Matrim's Dice--Lucy  honest participant 

3. The Unknown Aon--Floradel honest participant 

4. Devotary--Kelath honest participant 

5. JNV--Aracha honest participant 

6. Archer--Nid

7. Experience--Zara  honest participant 

8 .Stricker--Vanala Ghostblood spy 

9. Ash--Tailia  honest participant 

10. Maillwi--Malila

11. Thaidakar the Ghostblood--Salana honest participant 

12. Amanuensis--Awoman  honest participant 

13. Illwei--Albert  honest participant 

14. Bort--Bortington the Blind  honest participant 

14. Orlok Ghostblood spy 

[Mailliw73]

Are you joking? I wanted this to be over. I’ll start. Maill. I’m not going to try to debate Kas again like last cycle, sorry village. Well played elims.