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Quick Fix 59: Bachelor--Roshar edition!


Lotus

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17 minutes ago, Orlok Tsubodai said:

Worried about consensus read of Kas, particularly with consistent ties to Archer throughout the game. Would bet on Striker/Archer/Kas team. Think Kas has equivocated throughout game, really unsure where such strong village reads on them come from. Will vote for Archer this cycle, but strongly encourage those of you with firm v!Kas to reconsider it.

Pretty much where I am now

Orlok can have a village read for being on the same page as me, even if that slightly concerns me based on my history with him :P.

The one thing that concerns me is Ash's complete lack of view on Kas, but his Striker interactions with Striker are good.

Edited by Illwei
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2 minutes ago, Ashbringer said:

We don’t have anything remotely resembling a consensus. We’ve got half an hour to make one.

 

Just now, Illwei said:

Two on Archer

one on me?

Two on Ash?

one on Orlok

Archer: Orlok, Illwei
Ashbringer: Mailliw (Illwei?)
Orlok: Ashbringer, Archer

Not sure where Kas has voted, nor whether @The Unknown Novel has voted?

@Ashbringer, where are you presently on Archer?

 

 

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8 minutes ago, Illwei said:

Two on Archer

one on me?

Two on Ash?

Two on Orlok

Too many question marks, and one floating in the abyss. Maybe still, idk where TUN is.

I’m curious as to what’s changed between the last three cycles and now that people are voting me again for C1, but I can’t even really tell if that’s true.

1 minute ago, Orlok Tsubodai said:

@Ashbringer, where are you presently on Archer?

Presently? Every time I look at Archer I get  mentally dragged to try and figure out what Striker was planning. But I think Archer was V. Striker pushed them quite hard C1. 

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1 hour ago, Orlok Tsubodai said:
  • C1 Conclusions:
  • C1 Conclusions:

    Dislike internal contradictions. Not e/e with Illwei. Striker distancing? More likely that Striker couldn’t explain suspicion.

    TUA D1 reads:

    None

    Cycle Two:

  • No notes

    Cycle Three:

    No notes

    Cycle Four:
    1) Forgot about the game
    2) Thinks Kas described their playstyle well

  • 3) Disagrees with Illwei about Striker having a similar approach to TUA and Ash (sus of Ashbringer?)

  • 4) “Really dislikes Illwei”, would look at Kas if Illwei elim.

    Voted on Illwei

    TUA C4 Conclusions:

  • Unsure where read is coming from.

    TUA D4 reads:

    E!Illwei, possibly e!Kas

    Cycle Five:No notes

  • Overall:Consistent pushing Illwei, hasn’t given reasons. Very little to analyse. Could be e/e with anyone except Illwei/Orlok

Don't like this post. I don't like the parts not concerning me, but I really don't like your look at mine specifically. 

  • If you actually take what I said at face value, there are no contradictions. If you doubt the one statement that ties UT together, then it's a web.

  • I think I actually did post that Cycle, so you could put something there.

  • Not really sus of Ash.

  • You state that I would look at Kas if Illwei flipped e, but I actually put lower probability on Kas then on Exp, who you didn't mention at all.

  • I state my reasons multiple times. If you don’t agree with them, that's one thing, but their there.

  • This is probably the part I like the least. Goes past me not giving reason in a specific post to saying I haven't ever, which isn't true in the slightest. Why don't you think j could be e with you? We haven't interacted much.

 

Summary Edit: There was Orlok’s second post here where I theorized an Illwei/Orlok/Maili team.

I also question your read of Maili concealing their reads as village, that feels very elimmy to me.

Actual Edit: I will vote Orlok to consolidate, but my vote was previously on Illwei.

Edited by The Unknown Novel
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Just now, The Unknown Novel said:

Don't like this post. I don't like the parts not concerning me, but I really don't like your look at mine specifically. 

 

  • If you actually take what I said at face value, there are no contradictions. If you doubt the one statement that ties UT together, then it's a web.

     

  • I think I actually did post that Cycle, so you could put something there.

     

  • Not really sus of Ash.

     

  • You state that I would look at Kas if Illwei flipped e, but I actually put lower probability on Kas then on Exp, who you didn't mention at all.

     

  • I state my reasons multiple times. If you don’t agree with them, that's one thing, but their there.

     

  • This is probably the part I like the least. Goes past me not giving reason in a specific post to saying I haven't ever, which isn't true in the slightest. Why don't you think j could be e with you? We haven't interacted much.

     

 

Responding to the above in order:

Not sure what you mean by one statement?

You did post, but I didn't have thoughts on what you posted.

The suspicion of Ash was a question to you to confirm an inference I made.

I state that I think you said you'd look at Kas, and didn't mention Experience because they've flipped, and so aren't a consideration this cycle.

We can't be e/e because I don't think 4/11 is close to balanced, and there was a cycle in which we both were inactive, yet a kill was made.

@Illwei, it looks like it's:

Orlok: 3 (Archer, TUA, Ashbringer)
Ashbringer: 1 (Maill)
Archer: 2 (Orlok, Illwei)

Fancy moving back to Ashbringer? Not comfortable accepting death with lylo next cycle, and know Ashbringer is more likely evil than I am, even if I prefer Archer/Kas

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The thing is like, maybe, but also I think Ash's striker interactions were very good

At this point I don't know how much I care about my reads anymore

I think it's maybe Archer and TUA at this point. idk.

 

Edited by Illwei
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1 hour ago, Archer said:

Yeah, sorry Orlok, as a mobile player I haven't really followed much of what you've said. Who ya voting for? 

Your system goes village green to black to orange to evil red, right? 

Are you willing to vote Illwei today? Does that change if Orlock votes Kas? 

I’d vote Illwei, Kas or Ash this cycle. I want Orlok to be good, but idk. I have 1 minute to switch and I don’t know if I can. 

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Just now, Mailliw73 said:

I’d vote Illwei, Kas or Ash this cycle. I want Orlok to be good, but idk. I have 1 minute to switch and I don’t know if I can. 

you'd vote me after calling me very village? lol?

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Cycle 6

After a long day of dancing, Adoling Kholin was ready to make a decision. He sent two ladies home, and now five are left.

It's time for the fantasy suites.

- - - 

Ash was not given a rose (voted out)! They were a Honest participant! 

Illwei was not given a rose (killed)! They were a Honest participant! 

- - -

 

Vote Count: 

Ash (4): Kasimir, Maillwi, Illwei, Orlok

Orlok (3): Ash, Archer, Unknown Aon

 

- - - 

 

Player list: 

 

1. Kasimir-- Keredin

2. Matrim's Dice--Lucy  honest participant 

3. The Unknown Aon--Floradel

4. Devotary--Kelath honest participant 

5. JNV--Aracha honest participant 

6. Archer--Nid

7. Experience--Zara  honest participant 

8 .Stricker--Vanala Ghostblood spy 

9. Ash--Tailia  honest participant 

10. Maillwi--Malila

11. Thaidakar the Ghostblood--Salana honest participant 

12. Amanuensis--Awoman  honest participant 

13. Illwei--Albert  honest participant 

14. Bort--Bortington the Blind  honest participant 

14. Orlok

Edited by Lotus
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It's time to plaaaay Who's That Eliminator! 

"It's Ashbringer!"

It's Orlok! 

"F----!" 

 

Wanna bet the guy pushing a Kas exe didn't want to NK them? I need to look at this again after class, but right now I'm at v!TUA and Kas and e!Orlok and Mailliw. 

Edit:

-Kas was early to exclude Ash from the suspect pool when he could have mixed him

-Aman and Kas had unfinished RP to do, so it'd be an odd NK

-TUA voted Orlock, which means they aren't e-e. Which means the value play here is to vote Mailliw so my vote is moving there actually 

-Mailliw was I think right about Illwei and Ashbringer. Too right, ammiright. No one has reads that good when the Frog of War is about. 

Edited by Archer
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Sorry guys :/ Put a placeholder vote down on Ash before I left as I'd been re-evaluating my <Illwei, Ash> tier before I checked out of the cycle in exhaustion. From where I was at, if I couldn't be back in time (which happened, but I'm not sorry for that as I got a solid bloc of rest!) I wanted my vote to go where consolidation was, and going on Ash was the better choice since Maili was gunning for him - I still didn't see a world in which E!Archer was Striker's designated CW, so I was deeply committed to V!Archer and that train was a non-starter for me. Basically liked Maili's point on the NKs pointing to Ash.

Still at low battery but I've gotten quite a bit more rest than I have in days even with the coughing so I'm content :) 

  • Archer: Flat out committed to V!Archer, and no one is going to talk me off this. I don't see a world in which E!Striker tries to CW on E!Archer. Teams do not immediately bus out the gate - they bus as a last resort, and the fact we're currently at lylo indicates that we're at 3 v 2 right now. This makes the Striker gambit theory even more weird in my view and cements Archer as my solid V of the cycle. Archer also voted for Orlok. Any Archer train is a non-starter for me.
     
  • TUA: I like TUA's vote on Orlok last cycle, and think that points to V!TUA. I don't see TUA voting to endanger a teammate. Any TUA train is also a non-starter for me.
     
  • Maili: I read Maili's emergence into activity last cycle and Ash train as an attempt to seize thread control and to keep the lynch away from Orlok, given that Orlok had returned from inactivity and could thus be sussed for the C1 vote (spoiler alert: I also am committed to E!Orlok now.) I also do side-eye Maili's last-minute post about wanting Orlok to be good - it fits with Maili's pattern of having defended Orlok throughout the game, with Aman calling Maili out C3 for shielding Orlok by apathy clearing Orlok. There's no reason to comment about wanting Orlok to be good right before the flip if Maili had voted on Ash anyway. (FYI that I'm also committed to E!Maili simply by PoE anyway, at this juncture. There's no way I'm accepting E!Archer or E!TUA and if E!Archer has somehow pocketed me, I'm not even going to be mad.)
     
  • Orlok: This one's the kicker but also obvious and I regret not having the bandwidth to go ham on him last cycle, especially with the info we have now. Illwei flipped V. Ash flipped V. To me, it's extremely unlikely that the Elims did not bus, so as far as I'm concerned, he's our busser. Agreed with Archer that the fact I'm not NKed is likely because Orlok was aggressively pushing me for the lynch - failing which, I note that Orlok and potentially Maili are two players I'd expect to spare me from a NK. Wouldn't put it past Orlok to want to face me in a lynch, even if I can't give him the kind of fight Aman could.

In summation: to consolidate, Maili.

1 hour ago, Archer said:

-TUA voted Orlock, which means they aren't e-e. Which means the value play here is to vote Mailliw so my vote is moving there actually 

Can't deny this, as my argument for E!Orlok involves information that's not readily accessible to everyone.

1 hour ago, Archer said:

-Mailliw was I think right about Illwei and Ashbringer. Too right, ammiright. No one has reads that good when the Frog of War is about. 

I'm going to have to spoil your thunder here a bit to point out that Maili has pushed for an Ash lynch at points, and was gunning for Ash last cycle. He did strongly V read Illwei C4. You might be thinking of me, but I've dithered quite a bit about Ash and Illwei before chunking them into Null+ by the end of C3, partly as a result of that long thread back-and-forth with Aman, and then never quite having the time to properly rethink them or decide how strongly I felt about them.

I think there are reasons to sus Maili - but this one isn't it.

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Man, Kas, two evil games in a row? Look at you break that streak. :P Looking at this, there's just no way I think that you aren't evil. I thought that last cycle, and documented it in my GM PM, but purposely wanted to bait you by seeing how people responded to my Ash push (though I did genuinely suspect him more), but looks like that coincided with a rough/busy time for you so I didn't get much reaction test. I think this has to be an Orlok-Kas team, but maybe Kas-TUA? 

Stricker (8): Kasimir, Matrim's dice, Devotary, AshAmanuensis, Illwei, Bort, Orlok
Ash (2): 
ExperienceStricker
Illwei (1): The Unknown Aon
JNV (1): Maillwi
Experience (1): Thaidakar the Ghostblood

Archer(1): JNV

D2

Thaidakar (5): Kasimir, Devotary, AshAmanuensis, Illwei
Ash (2): 
JNV, Archer

D3

JNV (5): Kasimir, Archer, Experience, Maillwi, Illwei
Unknown Aon (1): 
JNV
Maillw
(1): Ash
Aman (1): Aman
Illwei(1): Bort

D4

Experience (6): Kasimir, Archer, Ash, Maillwi, Illwei, Orlok
Illwei (2): Unknown Aon, Bort
Archer(1): Experience

D5:

Ash (4): Kasimir, Maillwi, Illwei, Orlok
Orlok (3): Ash, Archer, Unknown Aon

 

@Archer Kas already said this but yeah, like I wasn't right about Ash... That's the whole problem with the exe. 
 

edit: @Kasimir about my activity, I had extra time yesterday, didn’t think I’d still be alive at this point in the game, and had enough data points to start some vote analysis. If I’d had time the day before, I’d have done it then. You have nailed my playstyle in this game and are the only person who has accurately explained it, though Orlok I think also recognizes what signs show me as villager. 

Edited by Mailliw73
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I’ll write a longer post tomorrow, when not on strong painkillers, but in summary, absolutely committed to two of Kas, Archer, and TUA being evil. Leaning much more strongly towards Kas and Archer.

@The Unknown Novel, as far as I can tell, Archer’s entire argument last cycle for e!Orlok was that my post at the end of C1 felt like a bus. I’d ask that you go back to C1, and read this post:

And then this one, in context of the first of the two:

The first post illustrates where I was with my thinking an hour before rollover. I had a village read on Ashbringer, mild suspicion of Experience and yourself, and was unsure on Archer. In my first post of the cycle I engaged with his suggestion on hidden voting, and had a weak gut village read, tempered by his second and third posts. I hadn’t reached any of Striker’s posts. 

As I said in the first of those posts, I was aware I was not going to catch up to the end of the cycle before rollover (on average, each post I consider in the tabular analysis I do takes 4 minutes), and so tried to read the rest of the thread in time to place a vote, and committed to doing so.

My view has always been that D1 should maximise village information. I didn’t see anything further to give me a read of you, and whilst I disliked Experience voting on Ashbringer, did not think lynching Experience, even were he an option, would provide much useable information. As far as I could tell from the thread (and I don’t think I was the only one of this view at the time), both Archer and Striker were at risk of being lynched (I didn’t register the movement on Ashbringer at the time, but solidly read Ashbringer as village C1, so it wouldn’t have made a difference). Most of the C1 discussion was on one of Striker or Archer, so either lynch would have been information generating, hence putting them in my “shortlist”, following Ashbringer’s two vote pool, which was an idea I agreed with.

I voted for Striker over Archer primarily for his defensive tone, and partly because I felt like Archer was fitting together in my head - I was confident I could solve him.

I’d note that seven other players also felt like Striker was the better choice to lynch - and would ask why Archer and Kas singled my vote out particularly as bussing. Clearly voting Striker was a common conclusion, and it wasn’t a wrong conclusion.

I did explain the above (albeit in less detail) in this post, but don’t think anyone ever engaged with it:

In summary, @The Unknown Novel, I think we’re at LyLo, and that we need your vote. I intend to address and set out the case against Kas and Archer in greater detail tomorrow, but would ask that you look again at why they pushed e!Orlok in C4/C5. As I hope I’ve shown above, I don’t think they actually had an argument for e!Orlok that looked at my actions beyond a shallow glance, and instead were pushing me as an convenient lynch, without trying to solve me.

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9 hours ago, Archer said:

-Kas was early to exclude Ash from the suspect pool when he could have mixed him

 

But he did end up voting on him. I think that's been Kas's play so far. Play kind of a middle road during the cycle, pushing on various people in thread, and then consolidating on any bandwagon that appears. Especially last cycle, he'd have to have done that if Orlok was his teammate. If we don't get Kas now, we're done. Figuring out the third elim will have to wait till tomorrow, but I think Kas is our best bet. As a last resort of consolidation, I'd join you on Orlok if you wanted and refuse to vote Kas. 

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