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Quick Fix 59: Bachelor--Roshar edition!


Lotus

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6 hours ago, Bort said:

Who was first and second?

Aman and Kas :P. D3 it was me and Kas though.

Anyways, why has no one mentioned that my vote hasn't ever matched who I said I was voting despite being one to argue about accountability?

I'd link their interactions but all the Archer/Exp interactions look mad partnered. I didn't want to say this earlier because at the beginning of this cycle it was Archer being like "Exp and Illwei look mad partnered" and Exp going "Archer/Maill look mad partnered" but I'll say it now because it's a new page so it looks less like a meme lol.

@Bort Why are you so focused on my specific thoughts about Archer? I agree they're not trackable and don't make sense, but why that? if you think that me and Archer are teamed, why not vote Archer with me? Call my bluff?

Edited by Illwei
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@Illwei Because you're all over the place. On one day, you're saying he's elim, on another he's on your list of "trusted villagers," and then you're straight back to trying to kill him.

I'll admit, this might also be a natural extension to you having one of the higher post counts in the game. More posts = more comments to be suspicious of :)

Why not join you to vote for him? Because I don't trust you. You get me to put my vote on Archer, so both you and he end up with a single vote apiece (judging from what has been said during this cycle), and you've got a mislynch all lined up.

Edit: So, why did you change your mind about Archer so much?

Edited by Bort
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9 minutes ago, Bort said:

@Illwei Because you're all over the place. On one day, you're saying he's elim, on another he's on your list of "trusted villagers," and then you're straight back to trying to kill him.

Which is unironically a general village tell when used right. I know you won't take my word for it but I've talked about it before. Elims are much more self conscious about having trackable progressions than villagers.

14 minutes ago, Bort said:

I'll admit, this might also be a natural extension to you having one of the higher post counts in the game. More posts = more comments to be suspicious of :)

And yet I had one of the lowest on D2. Aman had more than me, Kas has more than me, Ash has more than me.

And people were


When I say Archer was openwolfing, this is what I mean:

Spoiler
On 3/9/2022 at 0:21 PM, Archer said:

You know what’s infuriating when you’re an elim? Randomness. Or at least, having a poor idea of how much danger you’re actually in. I suggest that everyone explicitly keep their suspicions broad and their trust lists private today so the elims can’t rely on a village-led mix to get them through to the next round.

Elim perpective slip: Only thinks about Elims not liking randomness when it also contributes to there being potentially no cohesive exe. 

On 3/11/2022 at 7:28 AM, Archer said:

So if enough people want to go for Orlok, they're my next pick. But I'd really like to stick to the more traditional picks. As Kas mentioned, I've used Thaid as an easy mix opportunity before, so I'm aware they're a good distraction candidate. 

Next pick is an inactive. 

On 3/11/2022 at 1:48 PM, Archer said:

Bort is villagey because they left a vote on Striker pre-bussing time. That's good enough for me rn.

Implied knowledge of when Elims started bussing.

On 3/12/2022 at 7:23 AM, Archer said:

The non vote thing was supposed to be a good way of signalling I'm village because I didn't self pres in the round where that might have mattered for me, but it really looks bad in a situation where most everyone else voted on an elim.

Openly admits to not voting strictly for Village cred.

On 3/13/2022 at 8:29 AM, Archer said:

By the way, thanks for taking one for the team, people willing to be NKed. Just make sure you're not imposing OOG reasons to use the kill that might force the elims to change from their preferred strategy.

Annoyance over Aman asking to be killed for OOG reasons, elims having to choose between being nice and playing their game

Not to mention the C1 Striker interactions.

Spoiler
On 3/9/2022 at 4:25 PM, StrikerEZ said:

Nid: I have appreciated her later points, but I cannot, nay, shall not get over her first few comments. Keeping things a secret and hiding what we believe and who we are going to search in the event of a murder is not the way to go. It only helps further the murderers' own goals of keeping themselves a secret. Having as much accountability in the thread as possible is the best course of action. And I feel like Nid's growing amenability is the sign of a murderer realizing they have made a mistake. 

Anyone wondering why Striker didn't vote in his first post? My opinion? He entered into a thread without votes, not knowing where he should put his. He marked a teammate as someone who was the most suspicious on his list but didn't want to vote until he knew where people's opinions were. Because that easily he could have boosted votes on Archer. the absolute easiest thing to do there is vote archer for his opinion. I don't think people would have found that overly suspicious- in isolation it's just NAI.

Now we have Archer's responses.

On 3/9/2022 at 8:29 PM, Archer said:

This is... remarkably thorough. Thanks! But also, sus? I wanna say this gives off similar vibes to JNV's post voting for me, just better put together. The analysis is fine, I'm just triggered by how direct it is. 

this is in response to Aman's post. He starts by trying to discredit Aman. He shouldn't be remotely pocketed by Striker right now, with Striker gunning for him. He should be questioning how a difference in opinion makes himself an elim. but here he is, trying to discredit Aman. Not voting-that's too direct, but shading him. relates it to a villager's post, so that's actually a good look for him, but not good enough seeing how JNV was mostly consensus suspicious at this point.

On 3/9/2022 at 8:29 PM, Archer said:

grr that's a villagery thing to admit. 

*When. :P.

The formality of red text was unnecessary, which is interesting. 

Archer then says this ^^ about striker going "whoops i forgot to vote". not only is that not a villagery thing to say, but Archer then goes on to semi-shade archer for putting his vote in red text, calling it "unnecessary." And like Kas goes on to point out: JNV, Kas, and I all used red on our thread votes before Striker did. So why only point out how Striker did? If Kas is village which I think is likely then that is potential TMI where he called out striker for doing something other people also did.

If I'm confbiasing then I'm confbiasing on something. But where? Because I don't think it's in the Archer-> Striker interactions. I don't

While I am at Kas being village right now, I think that if Archer is an Elim then Ash is more likely village because of how Ash approached the Archer connection and how much Ash took to heart the Archer connection that Striker gave. And if Ash and Kas are both village, it means that the Thaid train on D2 was completely pure. which makes sense if Archer is an Elim, seeing how he commented on how he has used Thaid as an easy misexe in the past.

Ash's supposed confusion at the end of the cycle is theoretically villagery as well.

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Spoiler
On 10/03/2022 at 6:02 PM, Orlok Tsubodai said:
Cycle Post Player Summary Vote Retractions Thoughts AI (perceived) Notable connections
One 1 Lotus GM GM GM GM GM GM
One 2 Amanuensis Smiley face in cowboy hat N/A N/A None None None
One 3 Thaidakar RP N/A N/A None None None
One 4 Experience "zzzzzzzzzzzzzzz" N/A N/A Don't understand it None None
One 5 Araris IM post IM IM IM IM IM
One 6 Matrim Will be afk for an hour but is present N/A N/A Necessary to say? Why? Unsure None
One 7 Ashbringer Is going to test something. Has placed a stab vote on Devotary, will not retract until analysis or RP done Devotary N/A What are they testing? Stab votes not a new concept. Testing impact of invisibility of retractions? Watch for future votes Very mild village for willingness to retract on RP Vote on Devotary
One 8 Archer Randomness is infuriating as an eliminator - or having a poor sense of whether they're in danger. Suggests everyone keep suspicions broad & trust private, so elims can't rely on village mix to get to D2. Asks for thoughts. Suggests everyone place a truly random vote as a placeholder, will place his on Kas, Matrim, or TUA. Makes bad pun. Says mobile easier as don't need to red text votes. Kas, Matrim, or TUA N/A Thoughts on two levels - tactical, and alignment indicative. From gameplay perspective: random voting likely to create relatively even distribution of votes. Not convinced it increases the threat to the eliminators, as any villager they vote on is just as likely to have pre-existing votes. Random voting within pools short term disadvantageous (in that village cannot coordinate, so random votes within pools truly random, indiciating lower "true" than "threatened" vote) whereas eliminators can do so - and so increase likelihood of killing villager. Over medium term, this provides information - with clouded voting, patterns of voting together suggest coordination, as does being on "winning" vote train each time. Only provides this information if village "random" votes within pools truly random - otherwise can be explained away as "gave three options to obfuscate my vote, but really was more suspicious of player xyz". Is information from coordination worth reduced clarity on player's suspicions? Crux of decision we need to make. At first reading of post, instinct was very strongly against this - personal preference is maximum clear information to assess. Now less certain - intrugued by analysis potential. Alignment indicative? Post made eighteen minutes after thread went live. Suggests time to write it, not necessarily time to consider implications in depth post-start of game. Considered beforehand? I think AI depends on depth of consideration of suggestion. At surface level, random voting aids eliminators - easier to hide, reduced "accessible" information. I went into game expecting to play voting entirely straight - red voting in thread, with consistent vote in my PM. I was planning to do the same if evil - whilst I assessed obfuscated voting beneficial to elims, couldn't see an angle or strong argument against consistency. For Archer to make argument allowing reduced information reads surface level evil, but if so indicates high risk appetite. Overall, depends on depth of thought of consequences (influenced by time of post, pre-consideration, historic gameplay), on short term advantage to elims, and on risk appetite. Unsure. Mild village. Based on MR56, assess within e!Archer's risk appetite. However, I think post reads as from village mindset. Unwilling to commit strongly. Suggested strategy volatile, potential to significantly advantage elims. Voting on one of Kas, Matrim, or TUA
One 9 Amanuensis Ships Shallan with Kaladin. Asks Experience what he meant by his post. Emoji expressing thinking about Ashbringer's experiment. Says we're playing an MU certified mountainous game with distribution. N/A N/A Expressing similar thoughts to myself re Experience and Ashbringer, if interpreting "yyyyyyyyy?" and the emoji correctly. NAI None
One 10 Experience Replies to Archer's post suggesting vote randomness. Suggests they might vote randomly between Archer, Archer, and Archer. Explains earlier post as RP character sleeping. Possibly Archer N/A Can't tell if joking about Archer, assuminmg suspicion. Think suspicion is valid take on Archer's post. Very mild village Possible vote on Archer
One 11 Kasimir Votes on Archer. Engages with idea, asks why randomness and private trust lists shouldn't be repeated beyond C1. Asks Aman what a moutainous game is Archer N/A Fair question. Doesn't engage in depth with coordination consequences of obfuscation of votes. NAI. Consistent with expected initial assessment from Kas. Votes on Archer
One 12 Devotary RP. Notes QF52 had the same setup and elim victory, asks Archer whether playing QF52 changed his initial opinion that obfuscated votes favoured the elims N/A N/A Enjoyed the RP. Skimmed QF52, which looks like it had limited PMs. Archer was village in QF52, note that I read them as pretty suspicious on skim of thread until flip. Asking for information on Archer's position, but gives no view of her own Very mild village Questions Archer
One 13 Archer Asks Aman for his distribution guess. Thinks hidden votes benefit elims more than village, so thinks 3/12, but could be convinced of 4/11 N/A N/A Aman's distribution guess 3/12, per a google of MU mountainous games. Think 4/11 with mechanically advantaged eliminators is implausible , and obviously so- parity guaranteed after C3. If believes hidden votes benefit elims, why suggest it above - reevaluate depth of thinking. Why suggest implausible distro? Mild evil None
One 14 Thaidakar Misses Archer's awful pun N/A N/A Lucky man NAI None
One 15 Devotary Spells out to Thaidakar Archer's Salamander joke N/A N/A None NAI None
One 16 Thaidakar Thanks Devotary N/A N/A None NAI Possible less likely e/e with Devotary
One 17 Experience Asks whether it benefits the village to keep voting secret, thinks some of out best information could be gained from inconsistencies in voting. Says will probably do that at some point, but it could be useful. Asks for thoughts. N/A N/A Internally inconsistent, evidently so. Gut read of evil. Makes sensible point re playing voting straight - but don't think this is AI. Possible read as making sensible argument, but providing room to manoeuvre. If evil, why so self-evidently evil? Gut elim, reevaluate. Dislike that read appears so easy. None
One 18 Ashbringer We need to strike a balance on anonymous voting. Last time, eventually all votes matched the thread, which made it vanilla. So voting in sectret can be helpful, need to figure out how. Says balance also necessary with random voting. Notes that random voting allows consideration of whether elim votes are truly random, suggests that becomes a three gods problem. N/A N/A Dislike assuming hidden voting useful just because it's in the game. Vanilla isn't necessarily bad, particularly if hidden voting deemed disadvantageous - unless we're explicitly playing suboptimally to use the mechanic. Takes random voting as helpful to start - not sure thoughts on this, worth noting. Mild evil - dislike willingness to obfuscate information without strong rationale, which Ashbringer doesn't provide Supports Archer's proposal, doesn't provide depth of thought
One 19 Amanuensis Explains mountainous games. Doesn't think hidden votes is enough to push game to 4/11. Doesn't like C1 distro guessing. Asks Devo whether Archer was v or e in QF52. N/A N/A Implicit from "pushing to" that sees hidden votes as beneficial to village? Unsure None
One 20 Archer Thinking has shifted since QF52, QF52!Archer inexperienced. Suggests Kas' vote in his elim meta. Randomness C1 but not onward justifiable as C1 a shot in the dark. N/A N/A Understand evaluation of thinking. Dislike handwaving of why. Think Kas is in Kas meta. Strongly dislike all C1 strategies that separate C1 - don't think randomness in C1 voting + elim kill put sus in any stronger a position C2 - and so C1 must be a cycle in which actual discussion occurs. Mild evil Kas in elim meta
One 21 Matrim Replies to Archer, says not knowing others' stances is infuriating to village. Likes Archer's explanation for it just being C1. Thinks we should try for an elim flip today N/A N/A Like mindset thoughts on Archer's suggestion come from Gut mild village Disagrees with Archer
One 22 TUA Placing a retaliatory vote on Archer, agrees with Archer's suggestion Archer N/A Very odd. Self contradictory - if agrees, then why not act following logic - makes single, explicit, non-random vote. Less likely e/e with Archer. Mild evil Votes on Archer, agrees with Archer
One 23 Ashbringer Responds to Archer's C1 randomness. Says we want to avoid everyone C2 claiming C1 vote was random - too easy for elims to hide. Going random and secret to start, but if has reason to trust Devotary, will move it from them. Suggests everyone vote for two players in thread, pick which one is real Possibly Devotary? N/A Very much like two-player suggestion. Allows uncertainty and coordination conclusions whilst forcing reads. Moderate village Possible vote on Devotary
One 24 Devotary Replies to Aman, says Archer was v in QF52. In QF52, Archer supported coloured votes. Whatever village did din't work. N/A N/A Not providing own assessment of Archer, or anyone else. Unsure Talks about Archer
One 25 Illwei If distro balanced, elim team of three. Thinks hidden votes are elim sided. Doesn't like secret votes. Too easy for elims to push players over the line if not discussed. N/A N/A If so, thoughts on those who have argued for secret votes? Agree at gut level with view, however. Very mild village None

Likely won't finish this before the end of the cycle, so will swap to being current on thread to make informed vote. Summary up to end of page one is:

Kasimir NAI Consistent with expectations
Matrim Gut mild village Like mindset assessing Archer
TUA Mild evil Self contradictory, actions don't match claimed views
Devotary Unsure Like asking for information re Archer, dislike not providing own assessment
JNV N/A No posts
Archer Unsure Read first post assuming depth of thought, likely influenced by skim of later posts. Do not like post #13. Less likely post #8 came from v!Archer
Experience Mild evil Gut, feels like making village post but justifying later changes to approach.
Striker N/A No posts
Ashbringer Moderate village Based entirely on two-player voting suggestion. Feels very much like a village suggestion.
Mailliw N/A No posts
Thaidakar NAI Nothing AI to assess
Amanuensis Unsure Some shared views, no strong positions explicit
Illwei Very mild village Gut based on phrasing of argument on hidden votes
Bort N/A No posts
Orlok N/A N/A

Edit 1: Posted before I was ready, will edit in thoughts in next five minutes
Edit 2: Thoughts completed

 

Cycle Post Player Summary Vote Retractions Thoughts AI (perceived) Notable connections
One 26 Ashbringer Public voting worked in QF52 to keep votes in line. Elims never pressured enough to need to lie about votes. N/A N/A Would elims feel pressure to lie, or pressure to explain, their votes? NAI None
One 27 Amanuensis Asks for thoughts on Archer's random voting suggestion. Comments on TUA voting on Archer, notes it as retaliatory N/A N/A Known villager. Clearly thought responses to Archer's post are alignment indicative. Known village Questioning TUA
One 28 Illwei Doesn't see what's wrong with it being a vanilla game. Doesn't think trackable votes are bad. Thinks without intentions, players will not feel any pressure N/A N/A Agree - or think this comes from village mindset Mild village None
One 29 Ashbringer Says "you're welcome" to Aman N/A N/A Misinterpretation (Obviously) not e/e with Aman Is confused by Aman
One 30 Amanuensis Corrects Ashbringer N/A N/A None None None
One 31 Matrim's Dice Doesn't have a problem with Ashbringer's two vote suggestion, but doesn't want to see it at lylo. Thinks it's 3/12. Doesn't have a problem with vanilla game. Leans village on Illwei, village on Archer for disagreeing with his starting suggestion, wants to lean elim on Experience for vote on Archer, but thinks e!Experience might have picked a better reason to vote on Archer. Poke voting Mailliw Mailliw N/A Known villager. Disagree with reasoning for clearing Archer/Experience. Agree with take on Illwei Known village Voting on Mailliw
One 32 Amanuensis Votes on Thaidakar, provides vote count Thaidakar N/A Poke vote Known village Votes on Thaidakar
One 33 JNV RP. Thinks we should be clear about who we are voting for, if mismatch on voting vote for liars. Sees no reason why randomness helps village. Thinks eliminators losing C1 elim doesn't hurt much because there aren't connections. Doesn't think Ashbringer's idea better. Votes for Archer. Archer N/A Known villager, think post comes from pretty surface level consideration of mechanics - I think this reads as village. Known village Votes on Archer
One 34 Illwei Votes on Matrim for village reading Illwei Matrim's Dice N/A I also got tonal village read from Illwei's post Matrim quoted. Illwei suspecting TMI from Matrim Very mild village Votes on Matrim
One 35 Matrim's Dice Says village read on Illwei was for taking view contrary to mood of the thread and sticking to it N/A N/A Don't think v read should come from Illwei being contrary - I get it as tonal Known village Village read on Illwei
One 36 StrikerEZ Notes in RP form. Agrees with Kasimir that Archer's suggestion of randomness doesn't make sense. Echoes Kas. Suggests TMI from Matrim re Archer. Thinks TUA overreacted to Archer's vote. Thinks Devotary not elim. Agrees with JNV's thoughts on Archer, would want to vote with them for Archer in future. Cannot get over Archer's initial suggestion. Thinks in thread accountability important. Thinks Archer's change of mind a sign of an elim backtracking. Agrees with Experience about accountability. Finds what Ashbringer said agreeable. Doesn't understand why they have been defending Archer. Wants to flip Archer before looking at Ashbringer. Wants more from Thaidakar. Agrees with what Aman has said. Strongly agres with Illwei. N/A N/A Known eliminator. Village reads or agrees with Kas, Devotary, JNV, Experience, Ashbringer, Illwei. Elim reads Archer. Thinks Matrim has TMI about Archer, and that TUA overreacted. C1. Under no pressure to bus Archer. Think Archer is Striker's genuine preferred mislynch. Other reads predicated on Archer flip - Matrim and Ashbringer. Reads on Matrim/Ashbringer suggest predicated on e!flip from Archer. Fabricated reads, but what does Striker do in case of v!flip? Summary - reads list makes more sense if attempting to bus Archer, but do not believe this to be the case - no vote on Archer, level of focus seems to be ML attempt. Known elim See posts
One 37 Mailliw Initial read of Archer was that post felt elim, read eased as went on. Thinks it's fine not to share vote with thread. Doesn't want to be pushed by consensus. N/A N/A Very similar to my own reading of Archer at this point Mild village Easing of initial e!Archer read
One 38 Archer Is fine with Ashbringer's suggestion of offering two votes. Explains logic behind random voting further. Is fine with playing voting straight C2. Works through C1 implications of C1 elim lynch, concludes less bad thann had initially thought. Surprised by Stiker expressing suspicion of Archer N/A N/A Not sure is thinking through distributed votes properly, but seems genuine in belief - all reads as predicated on genuine belief of elim confusion. Think workign through D1 lynch of elim in that manner less likely if Striker bussing. Read of post as neutral, think moderate village from Striker Surprised by Striker
One 39 Amanuensis Translates Striker's notes. Votes on Striker. Villager reads Maill. Striker N/A Sets out good argument for voting on Striker. Known villager Known village First vote on Striker
One 40 Ashbringer Joke N/A N/A NAI NAI None
One 41 Lotus GM GM GM GM GM GM
One 42 Mailliw Asks what the point is of hidden votes if not used. If Lotus put it in game should use it N/A N/A Reasonable view, in keeping with historic Mailliw NAI None
One 43 Amanuensis Is on same page as Maill, thinks we should maximise in thread vote discussion N/A N/A Known villager Known village None
One 44 Ashbringer Identifies that elim random votes can be non-random as can coordinate, and that we can get information from this N/A N/A Agree very very strongly. Critical insight, key to argument for random voting Village None
One 45 StrikerEZ Responds to Aman. Is very defensive. Reiterates suspicion of TUA. Wasn't trying to tie Archer to Ashbringer. Can't read Thaidakar. Questions Aman's suspicion of Illwei. Votes on Archer Archer N/A Known elim. V defensive. Knows under suspicion, but reads consistent. Known elim See post
One 46 Amanuensis Replies to Striker. Questions Striker's suspicion of TUA. Suspicious of Illwei N/A N/A Known villager Known village Suspicious of Striker, Illwei
One 47 Kasimir Multiquote. Not sold on mismatched votes being prima facie evil. Asks Archer to spell out reasons for changing mind on hidden voting. Doesn't see substantive difference between suggestions of Archer and Ashbringer. Worries that having a pool dilutes pressure. Leaning Null+ on Archer, retracts. Votes on JNV, asks if they have reconsidered on Archer. Calls out Striker for thinking it odd that Mat backtracked - thinks reevaluation normal and good, says Maill did so. JNV Archer Thinking about implications of voting. Reevaluating. Calls out Striker for not doing so - but doesn't engage in substantive of Striker's post or with Aman's suspicion of Striker. Distancing? Very mild evil Votes on JNV
One 48 Mailliw Thinks everyone should share suspicions in thread. Doesn't have any more than gut suspicions, wants to try not sharing them for first cycle. Is glad that Kas doesn't read their desire to use hidden voting as AI. Asks Kas what he reevaluated N/A N/A Contradicts self, but acknowledges it. Gut village read Gut mild village None
One 49 Kasimir Says Maill reevaluated read of Archer N/A N/A So thinks v!Maill? NAI Thinks v!Maill
One 50 Matrim's Dice Thinks Striker's analysis of him feels fabricated. Disagrees with Archer about villagersd wanting to self-pres. Votes on Striker StrikerEZ N/A Known villager. Known village Votes on Striker

 

Would have liked to make it further before rollover, but will carry on.

Summary from the second tranche:

I can't see Striker's reads post as a bus of Archer. Pretty willing to commit to v!Archer. P2 only strengthens my D1 village read of Ashbringer. Also willing to commit to v!Ashbringer.

 

On 10/03/2022 at 6:51 PM, Experience said:

Literally got nothing, including time.

I... think I'll drop a vote on Ash this turn.

I mentioned this (although not clearly) at the end of D1. Reading on in depth just reinforced my read of v!Ashbringer. @Experience (Experience), why did you vote for Ashbringer toward the very end of D1?

 

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4 minutes ago, Orlok Tsubodai said:

I mentioned this (although not clearly) at the end of D1. Reading on in depth just reinforced my read of v!Ashbringer. @Experience (Experience), why did you vote for Ashbringer toward the very end of D1?

I think it was because Aman had given some reason that they might vote on Ash for, and I didn't really have an idea for a better vote at that time.

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39 minutes ago, Illwei said:

While I am at Kas being village right now, I think that if Archer is an Elim then Ash is more likely village because of how Ash approached the Archer connection and how much Ash took to heart the Archer connection that Striker gave. And if Ash and Kas are both village, it means that the Thaid train on D2 was completely pure. which makes sense if Archer is an Elim, seeing how he commented on how he has used Thaid as an easy misexe in the past.

I mean this makes sense, but could also be a villager in all those cases (except being elim ofc). If Archer flips village, would you then vote on Ash next cycle? Because I'm leaning slight village for him rn and not sure if you are saying you still think one of Archer/Ash is an elim or not.

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43 minutes ago, Experience said:

I think it was because Aman had given some reason that they might vote on Ash for, and I didn't really have an idea for a better vote at that time.

The post below?

On 10/03/2022 at 6:43 PM, Amanuensis said:

Does anyone have any idea what the "vote"count looks like right now? Based on what people have declared publicly, that is. I'm wondering if there's a third exe opportunity I might want to jump on (like Ash).

Am I right, then, in thinking you voted on Ashbringer because Aman suggested he might want to vote on him, without providing even his own reasoning? What made you trust Aman so blindly?

48 minutes ago, Illwei said:

@Orlok Tsubodai Did you read my post right before yours? if not can you?

Doing so now.

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Cycle 5

Forgive the lack of write up, its finals week and I have chemistry to do.

- - - 

Experience was not given a rose (voted out)! They were a Honest participant! 

Bort was not given a rose (killed)! They were a Honest participant! 

- - -

 

Vote Count: 

Experience (6): Kasimir, Archer, Ash, Maillwi, Illwei, Orlok

Illwei (2): Unknown Aon, Bort

Archer(1): Experience

- - - 

 

Player list: 

 

1. Kasimir-- Keredin

2. Matrim's Dice--Lucy  honest participant 

3. The Unknown Aon--Floradel

4. Devotary--Kelath honest participant 

5. JNV--Aracha honest participant 

6. Archer--Nid

7. Experience--Zara  honest participant 

8 .Stricker--Vanala Ghostblood spy 

9. Ash--Tailia

10. Maillwi--Malila

11. Thaidakar the Ghostblood--Salana honest participant 

12. Amanuensis--Awoman  honest participant 

13. Illwei--Albert

14. Bort--Bortington the Blind  honest participant 

14. Orlok

Edited by Lotus
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If I knew exp was on Archer I probably would have been in Archer. Thought he was on Ash. 

Okay, I'm done not listening to myself. Like actually done. Agh. Exp was village. 

Today or tomorrow is lylo. If it's 3 elims it's today, 4 tomorrow. 

1 of kas/Ash is an elim. 

1+ of Kas/Ash/Archer

Killing Bort is an interesting move imo. 

Who's coming after me this turn?

Archer

@Kasimir why did you defend me from Aman when I was in your immediate PoE? Besides "I'm too harsh on illwei"

Edited by Illwei
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11 minutes ago, Ashbringer said:

So I noticed something. Kasimir, you were willing to let inactive Orlok die? Well, if he’d stayed inactive and was Village, we’d probably have lost.

Let me ask you this. Do you honestly think he's Village? And do you think the Striker train was pure?

Because I'm honestly not sure. Part of me always wants to be Village bros with Orlok, and I see he's posted since then though I haven't had the time to engage with his posts or the thread due to work-SE balance being a lie. But if I'm committed to V!you, and I'm committed to V!Illwei, and I sure am not the busser, then I'm left with either the conclusion that there is no busser (side-trains?), or that the busser is Orlok. There is no other possibility left.

I'm not irrevocably committed to E!Orlok. I made that mistake with Falcon. I'm willing to keep an open mind. But I absolutely suspect him.

I think either way, it's clear there's a colossal failure of imagination here and I need to actually sit down and re-evaluate everything.

For the record, I can't do anything more about an inactive beyond them being pinged :P So it's not clear to me what you mean by letting him die. I've been clear that he's in my busser pool, therefore suspicious to me, and that I haven't felt pressured to sit on him just yet because he was on death row, and I am okay with that.

6 minutes ago, Illwei said:

Today or tomorrow is lylo. If it's 3 elims it's today, 4 tomorrow. 

I think you mean if it's four Elims, it's today. But due to anonymous voting, if we don't agree on a candidate, we're screwed because the Elims will just hammer in their own candidate in their PMs. If it's three Elims, then it's tomorrow.

Edited to add:

7 minutes ago, Illwei said:

@Kasimir why did you defend me from Aman when I was in your immediate PoE? Besides "I'm too harsh on illwei"

Your C3 felt Village to me. I liked the fluidity in your PoE, and felt you were engaging with the game and trying to solve. I felt that your pushing the PoE and trying to get other players to interact with your five was positive engagement. Fluidity seemed to indicate to me that you were working things out and questioning - Elims know what the answers are, so I expect to see less of that from them. That should by right have put you out of my PoE, but I'm slow to revise when it comes to you and know that it is a weakness of my approach as a player. So the short of it is that by that point, you shouldn't have been in my PoE (I'm not sure if you mean PoE even - you were a solid null for me at that juncture, and I was working more with a readslist), but I was slow to properly update due to paranoia, until I forced myself to sit down and think through things consistently, and realised I was actually committed to an upwards revision of my read.

Moreover, I really, genuinely dislike the "performativity of readslist"-type arguments. I generally think it's stylistic nitpicking, and vaguely recalled seeing you adopt enough different styles that I wasn't interested in taking it as a sign you were Evil. I think the mere fact that Wilson nearly MLed me for it, and Joe has MLed other players for it shows that players who use this argument aren't always picking up Elim tells - they're just shooting into the dark. So if that was supposed to sell me on Evil you, that's not going to work.

Edited by Kasimir
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7 minutes ago, Kasimir said:

think you mean if it's four Elims, it's today. But due to anonymous voting, if we don't agree on a candidate, we're screwed because the Elims will just hammer in their own candidate in their PMs. If it's three Elims, then it's tomorrow

Yeah, that.

Problem with that is the fact that we can't be spooked today if we somehow all agree on a candidate, because elims can say whatever they want in thread an vote wherever they want

@Mailliw73 why do you say I'm so obviously village?

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Just now, Illwei said:

Problem with that is the fact that we can't be spooked today if we somehow all agree on a candidate, because elims can say whatever they want in thread an vote wherever they want

Yeah, but in a four Elim world, there are three of them and four of us. As long as we stick to the agreed candidate, they can't hammer. I'm going to go read your Archer posts when I have time as part of my reconsidering.

16 minutes ago, Illwei said:

@Kasimir why did you defend me from Aman when I was in your immediate PoE? Besides "I'm too harsh on illwei"

The other thing I will say, for the record, is that I just throw thoughts into the thread and into PMs. I argue with players to try and get a feel for positions, to test arguments for weaknesses. In doing so, I will sometimes assert positions more strongly than I hold them or make cases I don't fully believe in (sometimes that I utterly don't believe in at all - see Stick versus me in thread on AG8 D6.) This helps me come to conclusions, or to revise my own beliefs to try to be more on-target. I tried to do this with all my PM buddies concerning Ocho in AG8, and I was doing this with Stick and TJ on Elan in that same game - okay, why would Evil Elan kill Mat, why would Evil Elan out herself, why do we think there's an Evil Coinshot, do we think Karn is Evil, and so on. I generally think discussion is a good means of coming to a consensus and part of how I function is I interrogate players, and press their arguments for weaknesses, and see how they respond and how I respond. I think it helps them clarify their own thoughts, and it sure helps me clarify my own thoughts. I don't think I would have properly realised that I actually leaned V on you until I was engaging with Aman's arguments and realising that I wasn't sold on them (your response on C1 to Aman helped with that.)

Basically, I'm not an introspecter. I have to talk to people and I do my best work discussing with/bouncing thoughts off people, and I think the dynamic Aman and I were just falling back into from MR56 is that he proposes a thought/read, I do my best to shoot it down, and we try to make it make more sense in the process.

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  1 hour ago, Bort said:

@Illwei Because you're all over the place. On one day, you're saying he's elim, on another he's on your list of "trusted villagers," and then you're straight back to trying to kill him.

 


Which is unironically a general village tell when used right. I know you won't take my word for it but I've talked about it before. Elims are much more self conscious about having trackable progressions than villagers.

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 1 hour ago, Bort said:

I'll admit, this might also be a natural extension to you having one of the higher post counts in the game. More posts = more comments to be suspicious of :)

 

And yet I had one of the lowest on D2. Aman had more than me, Kas has more than me, Ash has more than me.

And people were



When I say Archer was openwolfing, this is what I mean:
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On 09/03/2022 at 7:21 PM, Archer said:

You know what’s infuriating when you’re an elim? Randomness. Or at least, having a poor idea of how much danger you’re actually in. I suggest that everyone explicitly keep their suspicions broad and their trust lists private today so the elims can’t rely on a village-led mix to get them through to the next round.

<1> Elim perpective slip: Only thinks about Elims not liking randomness when it also contributes to there being potentially no cohesive exe. 

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On 11/03/2022 at 2:28 PM, Archer said:

So if enough people want to go for Orlok, they're my next pick. But I'd really like to stick to the more traditional picks. As Kas mentioned, I've used Thaid as an easy mix opportunity before, so I'm aware they're a good distraction candidate. 

<2> Next pick is an inactive. 

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On 11/03/2022 at 8:48 PM, Archer said:

Bort is villagey because they left a vote on Striker pre-bussing time. That's good enough for me rn.

<3> Implied knowledge of when Elims started bussing.

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On 12/03/2022 at 2:23 PM, Archer said:

The non vote thing was supposed to be a good way of signalling I'm village because I didn't self pres in the round where that might have mattered for me, but it really looks bad in a situation where most everyone else voted on an elim.

<4> Openly admits to not voting strictly for Village cred.

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On 13/03/2022 at 2:29 PM, Archer said:

By the way, thanks for taking one for the team, people willing to be NKed. Just make sure you're not imposing OOG reasons to use the kill that might force the elims to change from their preferred strategy.

<5> Annoyance over Aman asking to be killed for OOG reasons, elims having to choose between being nice and playing their game


Not to mention the C1 Striker interactions.

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On 09/03/2022 at 11:25 PM, StrikerEZ said:

Nid: I have appreciated her later points, but I cannot, nay, shall not get over her first few comments. Keeping things a secret and hiding what we believe and who we are going to search in the event of a murder is not the way to go. It only helps further the murderers' own goals of keeping themselves a secret. Having as much accountability in the thread as possible is the best course of action. And I feel like Nid's growing amenability is the sign of a murderer realizing they have made a mistake. 

<6> Anyone wondering why Striker didn't vote in his first post? My opinion? He entered into a thread without votes, not knowing where he should put his. He marked a teammate as someone who was the most suspicious on his list but didn't want to vote until he knew where people's opinions were. Because that easily he could have boosted votes on Archer. the absolute easiest thing to do there is vote archer for his opinion. I don't think people would have found that overly suspicious- in isolation it's just NAI.

Now we have Archer's responses.

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On 10/03/2022 at 3:29 AM, Archer said:

This is... remarkably thorough. Thanks! But also, sus? I wanna say this gives off similar vibes to JNV's post voting for me, just better put together. The analysis is fine, I'm just triggered by how direct it is.

 
<7> this is in response to Aman's post. He starts by trying to discredit Aman. He shouldn't be remotely pocketed by Striker right now, with Striker gunning for him. He should be questioning how a difference in opinion makes himself an elim. but here he is, trying to discredit Aman. Not voting-that's too direct, but shading him. relates it to a villager's post, so that's actually a good look for him, but not good enough seeing how JNV was mostly consensus suspicious at this point.
 
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On 10/03/2022 at 3:29 AM, Archer said:

grr that's a villagery thing to admit. 

*When. :P.

The formality of red text was unnecessary, which is interesting. 

<8> Archer then says this ^^ about striker going "whoops i forgot to vote". not only is that not a villagery thing to say, but Archer then goes on to semi-shade archer for putting his vote in red text, calling it "unnecessary." And like Kas goes on to point out: JNV, Kas, and I all used red on our thread votes before Striker did. So why only point out how Striker did? If Kas is village which I think is likely then that is potential TMI where he called out striker for doing something other people also did.

 


If I'm confbiasing then I'm confbiasing on something. But where? Because I don't think it's in the Archer-> Striker interactions. I don't

While I am at Kas being village right now, I think that if Archer is an Elim then Ash is more likely village because of how Ash approached the Archer connection and how much Ash took to heart the Archer connection that Striker gave. And if Ash and Kas are both village, it means that the Thaid train on D2 was completely pure. which makes sense if Archer is an Elim, seeing how he commented on how he has used Thaid as an easy misexe in the past.

Ash's supposed confusion at the end of the cycle is theoretically villagery as well.

<1> @Illwei, I'm not sure I follow what you're saying here - that Archer has an elim perspective because he isn't considering the impact of randomness on a cohesive exe? 
<2> From what I've seen skimming the thread, there appears to be a consensus that my end of D1 post was suspicious. I've explained my thought process, which I stand by, but can very much see why the eliminators would see me as an easy mislynch.
<3> As far as I can see, Bort was either the third or fourth public vote on Striker. I think you're reading of this as an elim slip - and it might be, but a more charitable reading is that Archer thinks bussing would happen after that point. I need to think on this point - Archer made comments D1 about the impact of a D1 elim death on their team, which has bearing on when Archer thinks bussing might have begun.
<4> 

On 10/03/2022 at 7:00 PM, Archer said:

I need to play a lesbian character through LG/BT/Q(f) games now, thanks for the side quest.

 

List of who's hanging around right now: Experience, Illwei, Aman, Kas, Ash, Mat, Striker, Orolok and two spectators(?) which always makes me nervous (hi TJ and Stick!)

I should be out of NK consideration, but especially in an e!Striker world, I’m an exe possibility, so I’m gonna dump this here now.

In a low information C1 with even pressure, I theorize that:

-every active elim will vote… on a villager and not on the person being NKed. This maximizes their chances of casting votes that will protect themselves from side trains that unexpectedly become the winning trains. Distancing votes are too dangerous to be viable.

-the elims are likely to piggyback on villagers with known voting intentions, but will only vote together if necessary because they’d like to save that option for later rounds, or if a strong wagon emerges they’d like to throw their weight behind.

-the elims will attempt to steer the exe in a predictable direction with their discussion and seek certainty.

By the way, I don’t plan on voting today. :P. I’ll welcome speculation about why to kick off the next round

Village read on Aman for pretending to diversify the wagons. Sticking with the e!JNV read because elims lean into arguments like that all the time. Not a fan of there being serious leading wagons because it messes up my strategy but I think elims are more likely to announce their vote in thread than not so I'm hoping some of it is elim voting, not villagers doing the work for them, if that makes any sense. Striker being evil makes absolute sense, us catching Striker does not, and that's why I'm not super optimistic right now. But I think he's a valid choice. So would TUA. Mat and Kas are not. I really hope no one "RNG" votes for them but village cred if you do lol

This feels relevant here.

Running out of time before a meeting, but of note:

1) Is worried about e!Striker
2) Per <4> thought they were a lynch contender, alongside Striker
3) Didn't feel under pressure of being lynched enough to vote for Striker

Not sure what the implications of this are, will come back to this point in a couple of hours

<5> Counterpoint - would e!Archer express that displeasure in thread?
<6> Can see your point, but my own read of Striker's post was that they made a set of assumptions contingent on Archer's flip. My own thoughts are that it's either e!Striker pushing for a mislynch of v!Archer (hence no vote), or e!Striker pushing for a bus of e!Archer, hoping to flip others on the back of it. Not sure why there wasn't a vote in the latter case
<7> Fair
<8> Also fair

Running out of time. Need to spend more time thinking about all the above.

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1 hour ago, Illwei said:

Yeah, that.

Problem with that is the fact that we can't be spooked today if we somehow all agree on a candidate, because elims can say whatever they want in thread an vote wherever they want

@Mailliw73 why do you say I'm so obviously village?

I'm rethinking now because of the notes below... But you're either a villager or an elim frustrated with the lack of accurate analysis that the village is doing and it feels like too easy of a win. That's just how your posts read to me. You're putting too much effort into explicitly having others share contrasting views, and idk, that's just how it's coming across. 

So I don't know how much the rest of this will make sense, but here's some notes on vote analysis and then Striker interactions analysis from D1: 

7 Players left:

Kas, Ash, Archer, Illwei, Orlok, TUA, Maill

People on the same votes:
Kas-Illwei: 4 (therefore, all the connections with Kas below apply to Illwei as well)
Kas-Ash: 3
Kas-Illwei-Ash: 3
Kas-Orlok: 2
Kas-Archer: 2

On Final Exe Target: Kas (4), Illwei (4), Ash (3), Me (2), Orlok (2), Archer (2), TUA (0)

Striker absolutely was bussed unless there's a TUA/Maill/Archer team.

There has to be elims on every train, not enough options otherwise

Ash is orange (sus) and Archer Blue (villagery) because of what I'm getting from D1 Striker interactions. 

Stricker (8): Kasimir, Matrim's dice, Devotary, AshAmanuensis, Illwei, Bort, Orlok
Ash (2): 
ExperienceStricker
Illwei (1): The Unknown Aon
JNV (1): Maillwi
Experience (1): Thaidakar the Ghostblood

Archer(1): JNV

D2

Thaidakar (5): Kasimir, Devotary, AshAmanuensis, Illwei
Ash (2):
JNV, Archer

D3

JNV (5): Kasimir, Archer, Experience, Maillwi, Illwei
Unknown Aon (1):
JNV
Maillw
(1): Ash
Aman (1): Aman
Illwei(1): Bort

D4

Experience (6): Kasimir, Archer, Ash, Maillwi, Illwei, Orlok
Illwei (2): Unknown Aon,
Bort
Archer(1): Experience

 

Notable Striker interactions on C1:

Aman pings Striker

Striker posts:

-Kas, mixed feelings, likes thoughts, but be wary

-TUA seemed skittish, suspected

-Archer: likes later points, but thinks first post is us and is Archer trying to recover

-Ash: Agreeable, but confused why Ash defending Archer

-Illwei: good points, but basically a non-comment

Aman explains why he suspects Striker

Striker defends self and votes Archer

Aman responds to his defense

Mat agrees with Aman’s take, votes Striker

Striker reemphasizes his suspicions of Archer and Ash

Archer says vote is on TUA, Striker, or JNV

Illwei doesn’t know how to see Striker’s post as villagers

Ash maybe votes Striker?

Mat says he ties Ash and Striker as e/e together

Devo also mentions Striker and Ash together as two suspicions

Mat again says that e!Striker->e!Ash

Striker makes his last defense and pushes for counter on Archer

Striker says he might move vote to Ash for self-pres

Orlok says he’ll vote on Archer or Striker since he feels those are the only options

 

TL;DR: So what I'm getting from all this is that I think Ash must be our vote today, and I wish he had been before. He jumps on three of the trains, but is also cautious to be not always on that train. Striker and he had weird interactions and multiple NKed people mentioned thinking that e!Striker->E!Ash. 

This is probably the most analysis you'll get from me this game, but I'm going with a guess of elims being Striker, Ash, TUA, and then maybe Kas/Orlok?

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9 minutes ago, Mailliw73 said:

TL;DR: So what I'm getting from all this is that I think Ash must be our vote today, and I wish he had been before. He jumps on three of the trains, but is also cautious to be not always on that train. Striker and he had weird interactions and multiple NKed people mentioned thinking that e!Striker->E!Ash. 

This is probably the most analysis you'll get from me this game, but I'm going with a guess of elims being Striker, Ash, TUA, and then maybe Kas/Orlok?

Is anyone else getting this? Because it sure hasn't seemed like it...

 

Okay you know what. Can everyone just pick their three most suspected players? Forget what everyone else is saying, for now, just pick three you're willing to kill right now. Not two, not four, three. (And Illwei, no messing it up with three most trusted this time :P)

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5 hours ago, Ashbringer said:

Is anyone else getting this? Because it sure hasn't seemed like it...

They’re all dead. :P kinda being facetious, but it’s true. 

Edit: Did Illwei and Kas die or something? This is the quietest I've seen this game.

Edited by Mailliw73
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7 hours ago, Illwei said:

Who's coming after me this turn?

*raises hand* Illwei :P. You can't call a half dozen elim slips slips, that's TWTBAW. 

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grr that's a villagery thing to admit. 

*When. :P.

The formality of red text was unnecessary, which is interesting. 

I'm still confused why this is your sticking point. I give one village point to Striker, make a joke, and then mildly sus him because I felt he seemed like he got caught out not actually voting and he was overcompensating by putting it in red in response to the pushback. But I'd given him a village point earlier in the post, so my headspace wasn't that he was fully elimy, so it came out as a 'hmm'. 

Kas is a trust. I think Aman or Kas talked me round to Ash at some point and I've just stuck with that. TUA hasn't committed to pushing a counter-option to them, which I'm going to read village. I was kinda enjoying not having to think about Orlok, and I had them down as not e-e with XP so it would have been great if that flip hadn't been green. Mailliw has had consistently different reads than I, so I'm sus of them (Why are they willing to sus Kas based on voting record but not Illwei, who has a similar record?). It's weird that Illwei aren't on the same page about me, but Mailliw is defending Illwei, so that pair sort of works. Illwei's suspicion of me feels fabricated, especially given their willingness to take a detour through Experience, but I know that's not the most popular pick right now. 

Here's the problem, Illwei said something to the effect of Devo's dead, must not have been bussing. :bIink: That throws Mailliw under the bus. But also, not the best conclusion since the more obvious implication is that I am evil, because. I had this figured out about how the Devo flip was a framing attempt from Illwei and I can't remember the reason. I'll post it if I figure it out. 

Anyway, not e-e? why don't we just kill both and one will be correct. My preference is Illwei or Mailliw today. I'll throw in Orlock as a third to make Ash happy. 

I need sleep goodbye

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