Quick Fix 59: Bachelor--Roshar edition!

[Kasimir]

4 minutes ago, Amanuensis said:

Just want to clarify the last thing I want is anyone to sheep me  I'm reaching out to you in this manner because I know you're more neutral on the illwei / a good voice of reason in general. The thing about my tunnels is that they aren't always perfect. They worked on Archer in MR56. They worked on Striker C1. But they also failed on Mat in MR56 and could be failing here.

Fair enough man, and apologies for the bad wording by the way   It's late, still recovering from being sick, and my phrasing isn't good. But while I don't advertise this, part of me absolutely wants to sheep players I trust, and I think I was more careless about just saying it on the thread this time instead of in my GM PM. I need to talk myself out of that tendency at times, usually when I feel torn between two sets of arguments. I did it out loud this time (yeah guys now you know my dirty secret...)

7 minutes ago, Amanuensis said:

Has illwei done it before tho? I didn't see her name on the reads list you linked for the LG.

I don't recall, but I will go and take a look.

[Amanuensis]

4 minutes ago, Kasimir said:

It's late, still recovering from being sick, and my phrasing isn't good.

Honestly don't worry about it and don't push yourself if you're unwell we got 23 extra hours and a bunch of other players to help out if they're interested. Best Effort Basis and all that, which is why I'm going to go lie down and hope that I feel better soon because I still have a lot of stressful things to do this weekend >>

[Bort]

@Kasimir Aman pretty much nailed it as to why I'm voting for Illwei. As for why not Archer, because while I'm still suspicious of him and will probably vote for him tomorrow, the current interactions around him and Ash are letting me read everyone involved.

[Kasimir]

Just now, Amanuensis said:

Honestly don't worry about it and don't push yourself if you're unwell we got 23 extra hours and a bunch of other players to help out if they're interested. Best Effort Basis and all that, which is why I'm going to go lie down and hope that I feel better soon because I still have a lot of stressful things to do this weekend >>

All the best, and sorry to hear man  Take care of yourself too, that's important. I still have a couple of hours in me, I think. Or at least however long it takes for the meds to make me tired. I'm aware I can't be as available from Mon to Tues so it's important to me I do my best when my mental bandwidth is most available on the weekend, but thank you for the reminder  

I should be fine - I admit I feel a bit more personally invested and also a bit more lost precisely because it is Illwei, and exactly as you said, I don't want a repeat Falcon. If there's one player I absolutely want to get right this time or at least, to lynch after a fair hearing, it's Illwei. (Though tbf, this really should apply to everyone, but - AG8 Falcon.) But yes, am glad for the 23 extra hours, as I think I will need that time to try to work things out >>

Especially with the help of (hopefully) more robust thread discussion.

1 minute ago, Bort said:

@Kasimir Aman pretty much nailed it as to why I'm voting for Illwei. As for why not Archer, because while I'm still suspicious of him and will probably vote for him tomorrow, the current interactions around him and Ash are letting me read everyone involved.

Okay, fair enough. What are your current conclusions? Care to share with the class?  

[Bort]

1 minute ago, Kasimir said:

Okay, fair enough. What are your current conclusions? Care to share with the class?  

I'm just starting up a D&D game, but will come back to this tomorrow, since we've now got an extra day

[Kasimir]

49 minutes ago, Bort said:

I'm just starting up a D&D game, but will come back to this tomorrow, since we've now got an extra day

Fair enough, and have fun!  

Edited to add:

1 hour ago, Amanuensis said:

Has illwei done it before tho? I didn't see her name on the reads list you linked for the LG.

Yes:

She was Village that game. I grant it's a longer haul as she didn't do it in AG8, LG83 or MR56. I guess you could ask what prompted that sudden shift back to it, though, but eh.

1 hour ago, Amanuensis said:

Good question. Could be a point in her favor maybe. But also could be an issue of personal availability, not realizing just how in trouble Striker was until Devo put that public vote in near EoD, blind votes in general, etc. This assumes the decision to bus came from her at the very last minute, not that it was planned in advance.

Also why no real effort C2? Just lost a teammate and I was posting C1 that they were tied together, so letting the heat go down, plus in a V!Ash world there was no point to thread control because others were driving an Ash exe and I was driving Thaid's. In this cycle I've been leading up to voting her anyway so she might know she'd have to go turbo mode to save herself.

Probably likely 3rd teammate is at risk too (JNV?) and she can't afford to let them die if they want a chance of exlo.

Okay, yeah, I can see that. Which ties I suppose to your sense that there is a push for an Ash ML. Though if I recall correctly, Illwei has once bussed most of her team including Vapor (sorry Vapor!) to win as a solo Elim, so I do wonder if she'd do this. ( @Illwei?) But at the same time, no sane player goes solo Elim - chances tank astronomically, so I guess this would make sense to me, but...IDK.

I think my current problem is that both are possible sets of explanations. The trick for me is now working out which is more plausible. On top of my usual wariness with reading Illwei. I've been relooking at the past cycles for Illwei and your point on the Striker-TUA/Striker-Illwei interactions, but I think it's the end of the line for me tonight. Will have to come back in the morning/afternoon as the meds are definitely kicking in and I'm not making much sense anymore. But realistically, this means I'll be looking at both Illwei and JNV tomorrow.

Edited March 12, 2022 by Kasimir

[Amanuensis]

...

......

.........

!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

I'm angry again. I switched between two tabs and suddenly lost more than half my post again. I'm not sure wtf is happening today but ffs.

Anyway, time to do it ALL OVER AGAIN.

 

3 hours ago, Kasimir said:

Yes:

She was Village that game. I grant it's a longer haul as she didn't do it in AG8, LG83 or MR56. I guess you could ask what prompted that sudden shift back to it, though, but eh.

TBH, that's enough for me. Counting that as a point in her favor.

I've laid down and rethought some things. I'm still undecided about illwei's slot, but I really want to get outside that box and try to work with her, so going to look elsewhere for now.

Illwei
Kasimir
The Unknown Aon
JNV
Archer
Experience
Ash
Maillwi
Bort
Orlok

There are at least 2 elims among these players 10 players (3 if they started 4, which I honestly wouldn't mind because then it should be easier to find another).

Illwei could still be one, but I'll remove her from the list for now.
Also removing Kas because he's done enough to earn my V!read, with or without ML guilt.
Removing TUA because I believe Striker was setting him up for a ML and backed off to appease me.
Removing Archer because tonally he feels very different than MR53 + appears to be putting more effort in solving.
Removing Bort because I highly doubt the man votes his teammate ~11 hours before rollover, elims probably voted last minute.

That leaves me with...

JNV
Experience
Ash
Mailliw
Orlok

Realistically, I can narrow this pool further because:

I'm still v!reading Ash while acknowledging I could be pocketed.
There's a few really small reasons I think Exp is probably Village that I won't get into because it'd mean multi quoting and that's too much effort rn.

Which means my final elim poe is:

JNV
Mailliw
Orlok

Will even temporarily remove Orlok because of his real life situation + someone had to put in the kill order on Devo (doubt it was him), which if not illwei, would have to be one of JNV or Mailliw in my mind.

So since I'm officially sick of having no vote counts because I can't get a whole picture of the game or reaction test people based on pressure, I'm going to advocate that everyone starts voting publicly as of right now.

Here are mine. JNV. Illwei. Mailliw.

• (3) JNV: Kasimir, Amanuensis, Experience,
• (2) Illwei: Amanuensis, Bort, 
• (2) The Unknown Aon: Illwei, JNV, 
• (1) Mailliw: Amanuensis,

In a v!TUA, v!Ash, and v!Illwei world, JNV looks really bad imo. I'm starting to come around to the possibility that e!Striker and e!JNV believed there was enough village consensus behind the Archer wagon early C1 to throw their weight behind it; JNV more directly, and Striker more passively. Even in an e!Illwei world, JNV preferring to vote with her on TUA rather than against her doesn't look great, so e!JNV works in either case.

As for Mailliw...

On 3/11/2022 at 2:56 PM, Mailliw73 said:

Interesting. Curious why Bort, TUA, and I are in the bottom five, but JNV and Experience are in the top. Any reasons for those 2 specifically being at the top? 

I'm still working through why I think what I do, and my time is more limited on this game than it's been in the past, but here's where I'd put it if I had to. 

Good: Maill, Bort, Orlok, Archer

Null: Aman, Kas, Illwei

Elim: JNV, Experience, Ash?

Even with having limited time, this reads list just doesn't sit right with me. I think he's giving Orlok way too much of an easy pass for not putting more effort into the game, which is either elim TMI like what Striker did with me in C1 or Mailliw shielding 3rd elim Orlok.

Also, the nulls... really? Kas and I are both in there?

The fact he meant to vote Experience yesterday is... idk. Very e!dgaf energy in a v!Thaid, v!Ash world?

It's possible he didn't get involved more during C1 EoD because he just really didn't think Striker was in that much danger. Or at least, not as much as Striker did. That, or he and Striker had a convo in the doc about whether or not he should try to vote to save him, and Striker said to just let him die rather than risk implicating himself.

Idk, the main thing I v!read Mailliw on D1 was the wanting to take advantage of the secret vote mechanic, but he'd do that either way, so outlier in my reaction test.

That plus lacklustre voting history plus lacklustre solving attempts plus frequent views of thread without posting leave me thinking he could be an elim and Kas is giving him too much a pass for low effort.

So yeah. That's where I'm at rn. Everyone get your votes in please.

ED1T:

If you're village, seriously, please make your votes publicly known in red for us <3 we need to make the elims feel the heat.

Also, every time you vote, please copy&paste the vote count I made above + edit it accordingly. This way no one needs to backread to consolidate; everyone just pays the effort forward.

Edited March 12, 2022 by Amanuensis

[Ashbringer]

39 minutes ago, Amanuensis said:

• (3) JNV: Kasimir, Amanuensis, Experience,
• (2) Illwei: Amanuensis, Bort, 
• (2) The Unknown Aon: Illwei, JNV, 
• (1) Mailliw: Amanuensis,

...

If you're village, seriously, please make your votes publicly known in red for us <3 we need to make the elims feel the heat.

Also, every time you vote, please copy&paste the vote count I made above + edit it accordingly. This way no one needs to backread to consolidate; everyone just pays the effort forward.

My vote's on Mailliw, currently. Could be convinced to go JNV especially if the vote stays that close, but I'm fine staying on Maill.

 

• (3) JNV: Kasimir, Amanuensis, Experience,
• (2) Illwei: Amanuensis, Bort, 
• (2) The Unknown Aon: Illwei, JNV, 
• (2) Mailliw: Amanuensis, Ashbringer

[---]

5 hours ago, Amanuensis said:

Nope. That was a quoted vote count where my name had to be on the list, and I do consider myself cleared by the Striker exe

That's irrelevant, but my point. Regardless of your opinion on what your actions imply, you have TMI. It's irrelevant, and it has the same supposed subconscious effect on people to what I'm doing. 

Unlike Kas, I get why you don't like it, but it's a feeling I get way more about people who green out their own name in votecounts :P. Funnily enough.

5 hours ago, Kasimir said:

Okay, yeah, I can see that. Which ties I suppose to your sense that there is a push for an Ash ML. Though if I recall correctly, Illwei has once bussed most of her team including Vapor (sorry Vapor!) to win as a solo Elim, so I do wonder if she'd do this. ( @Illwei?) But at the same time, no sane player goes solo Elim - chances tank astronomically, so I guess this would make sense to me, but...IDK.

I can link offsite games if you guys are gonna try to get down there which i dont really think anyone wants lol, but I am very anti bus. That game was a while ago and my first Elim game and I will bus if necessary, but I think people severely underestimate how much thread control you can have. 

If I was bussing striker I would have definitely been more vocal and definitely tried to milk more out of it than I have. I also think that, as I've said before, striker should have been anywhere near as much of a lost cause as his teammates supposedly thought.

1 hour ago, Amanuensis said:

Which means my final elim poe is:

Note that we only need a poe of 5. Which is nice. We need a 5 that has at most 3 elims. 

Maill and JNV are two In mine so I don't feel terrible about this. I still think that someone in Archer/Ash should die though. 

[Amanuensis]

9 minutes ago, Illwei said:

That's irrelevant, but my point. Regardless of your opinion on what your actions imply, you have TMI. It's irrelevant, and it has the same supposed subconscious effect on people to what I'm doing. 

From my PoV, that's irrelevant. I did not green myself out because it was me, I greened myself out because I would literally green out any player that initiated and continued applying pressure on the D1 exe of an elim. Peep my actual reads list in the game. Not one has included me is the point, whereas that example was vote analysis on an elim wagon.

And anyway, I dropped that whole point because Kas just linked me a reads list that looks almost like a perfect match to this game.

On 3/11/2022 at 2:29 PM, Illwei said:

We're either at 9 v 2 or 8 v 3

Which Means either 3 or 2 Mistakes more are allowed. Meaning to be on the safe side, we need a PoE of 5, where three are Elims. So we need to find 6 villagers.

Illwei

Kasimir
The Unknown Aon
JNV
Archer
Experience
Ash
Maillwi
Amanuensis
Bort
Orlok

Obviously I'm not doing too  good at this right now. I have a theory but I'm not going to say anything until next cycle about it.

Compared to:

On 3/11/2022 at 2:29 PM, Illwei said:

First of all "not all" ? you know another elim, Araris?

I am wondering if they can absorb people's lives somehow, but. idk yknow.

Anyways

we're at a good place rn with 6 v. 1 or 5 v. 2

Illwei
Araris
Szeth

Mage

Tani
Kasimir
Archer

A Mage/Sart team has very little reason to target me N1. Kas/Archer/Araris feel like people who would. Tani might but a Tani/Sart team also doesn't feel like it would go for me. 

mage is only up so high in the case of a 2 person team, and honestly that isn't seeming like it's going to be the case

Is a really good look for v!you, here and now. Why are we arguing about this? xD

[Mailliw73]

• (4) JNV: Kasimir, Amanuensis, Experience, Maill
• (2) Illwei: Amanuensis, Bort, 
• (2) The Unknown Aon: Illwei, JNV, 
• (2) Mailliw: Amanuensis, Ashbringer

 I’m on mobile a lot and in response to your comments about my activity, Aman, it’s because I’m mostly just able to catch up with the thread in brief bursts throughout the day between classes or homework or whatnot but I don’t have much to add in those times. Were there PMs in this game, I’d be much more active there since there’s less effort to be put in. 

I think your thoughts on Illwei have been addressed if I’m reading it right, but I’ll add that I think they were getting kinda tunnely. I’ll admit to not having played a lot of games with Illwei, and the main one I did, we were evil together, but the last day has been giving me village vibes.  

Having you and Kas in null reads is a result of me innately wanting you to be village and counteracting that impulse intentionally. Though at this point, I’m pretty confident in Kas being village. I want you to be but I have this niggling doubt at the back of my mind that you’re running us all in the wrong directions.

I think Ash gives us a lot of information as a flip, but I'm not particularly committed to that, and JNV was my first suspicion so I’ll vote him instead. If there’s potential for an Ash exe, I’d go back there as well. 

[Amanuensis]

3 hours ago, Mailliw73 said:

• (4) JNV: Kasimir, Amanuensis, Experience, Maill
• (2) Illwei: Amanuensis, Bort, 
• (2) The Unknown Aon: Illwei, JNV, 
• (2) Mailliw: Amanuensis, Ashbringer

I’m on mobile a lot and in response to your comments about my activity, Aman, it’s because I’m mostly just able to catch up with the thread in brief bursts throughout the day between classes or homework or whatnot but I don’t have much to add in those times. Were there PMs in this game, I’d be much more active there since there’s less effort to be put in. 

I think your thoughts on Illwei have been addressed if I’m reading it right, but I’ll add that I think they were getting kinda tunnely. I’ll admit to not having played a lot of games with Illwei, and the main one I did, we were evil together, but the last day has been giving me village vibes.  

Having you and Kas in null reads is a result of me innately wanting you to be village and counteracting that impulse intentionally. Though at this point, I’m pretty confident in Kas being village. I want you to be but I have this niggling doubt at the back of my mind that you’re running us all in the wrong directions.

I think Ash gives us a lot of information as a flip, but I'm not particularly committed to that, and JNV was my first suspicion so I’ll vote him instead. If there’s potential for an Ash exe, I’d go back there as well. 

That's fair on activity, just makes it hard for me to figure out your slot, especially being one of the few people who didn't vote the only confirmed elim so far

TBH I'm maybe less certain / tunneled on Illwei because of her activity today, but the Devo kill, to me, implies the Striker wagon was not pure, on top of the chances of 7 villagers following me onto Striker is hard to believe. It's not impossible but for that reason I went for Thaid yesterday because it potentially explained a defeated Striker (inactive partner). The alternative in my mind is there being 4 elims instead of 3 (hence them overall being happier with a bus). With Devo dead, Illwei, Orlok, and Ash are the only players I believe could be the busers, and I've given my thoughts on those players already.

With 11 players left and 1 elim dead, that'd mean we're, at worst, dealing with a 8:3 ratio. If we have a ML today that brings us to 6:3. That is scary close in my mind, especially knowing either I'm dying tonight or Kas is dying tonight. I really do think it's unusual you doubt me too, given I ran us in the right direction C1. Do you honestly believe I throw Striker under the bus like that?

So yeah. I'm kind of scared of "info" exes at this point. I don't think us having the mentality of voting the person who nets us the most info is the right call. I think voting the person who's most likely an elim is. If someone makes a good enough argument for those circles to overlap on a player, then I could get on board, but it's going to have to be convincing.

Ultimately, my reads are mine and will inform my vote, but everyone should vote where their reads inform them. It's why I'm counting my vote on three different people and why I'm giving Illwei a chance now. At this point in time, my vote is submitted on myself. I don't know when or on who, but I will switch it to one person in my PoE by the end of the turn and I will not say who until the very last minute, depending on where the rest of the turn goes and where the rest of the votes fall.

That all said, I am entertaining the idea that JNV killed Devo over me because A: I expressed trust of JNV until this turn an B: I expressed suspicion of illwei. He may have been hoping I'd push that ML after Thaid's and just in case, I'm wary of falling into that trap.

ED1T:

I think here's my thing about Ash being a bad info exe. What info do we gain? I'm pretty sure the only players to defend him actively have been Kas and I, while the rest have either tried to vote him or expresses suspicion of him in some manner. Am I wrong? Has Ash had another defender? That kind of tells me he's Village, as does the huge drop off of C2 votes.

Edited March 13, 2022 by Amanuensis

[Kasimir]

Alright, I woke up, went back to sleep, woke up, and my head is still full of fog. It's the end of the line for me, and I think these new meds are a bit too strong but hopefully they'll help deal with the problem in the long run because I'm heckin' tired of coughing my throat bloody. Best effort basis, no guarantees I will be back for the rest of the cycle as I'm just going to pass out again after this shot. As I mentioned before, tomorrow and Tuesday's packed work days for me with a bunch of tight deadlines so I absolutely have to make sure I'm not the walking dead.

Not to steal Aman's thunder too much but I honestly could not care less if I got NKed  But then, since when have I? (Cue: Archer, Bort, Araris flashbacks.)

Here's the situation as I see it:

• If I want to be fair to Illwei, I genuinely like her posts this cycle. They feel engaged, and trying to solve the game. I appreciate the uncertainty and the fluidity of her PoE, and that at least feels like PM!Illwei to me. Against that, I weigh the Archer sus end-C1 (not as strongly now that I've realised her Archer post that I squinted at was early C2). I'm not strongly committed to a Elim being on the either (inclusive-or) Thaid and Ash trains, though I do think that's likely, and that narrows my field to <Illwei, JNV.> I don't think it's fair to continue to entertain paranoia of Illwei at this juncture, so I'm bumping her up to at least Null+ for now - this at least puts her ahead of JNV in my suspicions and therefore out of contention for me if JNV is on the table. (Which sort of foreshadows my JNV thoughts but more on that later.)
   
• Aman made this point as well:

  16 hours ago, Amanuensis said:

  I might be somewhat at a disadvantage for how to read you since my last known memory is MR56 and not LG83, since I was inactive that game and got killed D2 (I think the same turn you came in, so I don't know how your play was that game compared to the MR and this one). I just can't shake that you're both playing more reasonably and less abrasively than you have in MR53 and AG8 both, and I acknowledge that's kind of a terrible way to read someone, but also that if you're E and worried about getting exed / suspected, this is the exact play I'd expect.

  
  I'm just going to flat out say that I see it, and I honestly am a fan of it. And if this means E!Illwei is pocketing me and getting away with it, I'm happy to let her, at least for this cycle. E!Illwei still has one to two teammates who should be catchable, and I genuinely think that I like this shift in Illwei's current style, and I think it sets a poor precedent to reward a player for a prosocial shift in play by lynching them for it off the bat. So that's kind of where I stand: at least Null+, even if E, I really can't find the will to go after her right now. (We can blame Araris for pointing this out, I suppose, since I agree with that sentiment.)
   
• To me, the main issue with JNV is, as JNV acknowledges, that I'm a player who tends to focus a lot more on actions and especially concrete voting patterns than posts. Part of it boils down to the fact that I don't trust myself with reading posts that much, and feel I tend to go off the rails if I can't anchor myself to concrete actions or votes. I feel that JNV's C1 on Archer was still a bit too strong for a disagreement of reasoning, and I still think it makes more sense situationally as an attempt to drive forward the Archer CW that Striker seemed to be banking on. In a four-Elim world, I don't find it intuitive for the Elims to put all their eggs in one basket by jointly bussing Striker - I'd expect some off-train Elims too. (I guess there's a IKYK there, but that's not a rock I want to flip right now, because that'd commit me to E!Illwei, E!Orlok, and E!Ash all at once, unless I've got a bad read of Bort I guess, and I don't know how plausible that is. Gonna just refuse the IKYK and handle it straight for now.) We now know Thaid was Village. Other off-train voters include <Experience, TUA, Maili, and JNV.> Staying on the Archer CW is reasonable, especially since it's possible JNV couldn't get on again, and anyway they can't all be on the main train. That's about where I'm at.

10 hours ago, Illwei said:

Unlike Kas, I get why you don't like it, but it's a feeling I get way more about people who green out their own name in votecounts :P. Funnily enough.

Nearly getting MLed for it by Wilson has a way of changing a guy's worldview  Since then I genuinely don't like such arguments and I think they're overly nitpicking on stylistic points. I accept that you and Aman work to varying degrees with micro-details but I just can't work that way, and it's hard to convince me to go with an argument when I very well know Village Wilson mistakenly used it to nearly kill Village Wit Kas. (She didn't succeed in the end, there's a story there, but.) I think Joe has also MLed a few players for that, but Maili might remember, as I've forgotten the details. Or not - those were definitely pre-LG12 days, so forever ago.

17 hours ago, Illwei said:

Things change if Exp doesn't realize that it's extended 24 hours, which if he does then it doesn't matter anymore because there would be no real need to switch off of me after expressing doubt. But just in my mind it's a completely pointless post when Aman is probably ending on me today? or at least looks like it at that point in time and whatnot. Idk. Gotta go to work.

I'm drawing a sort of blank off it, to be honest. But I think this is where our favoured analysis styles diverge again.

12 hours ago, Amanuensis said:

That plus lacklustre voting history plus lacklustre solving attempts plus frequent views of thread without posting leave me thinking he could be an elim and Kas is giving him too much a pass for low effort.

I'll be honest, I acknowledge I might definitely be giving Maili too much of a pass. He said in C2 that he was playing the game pretty chill, and in C1, that he didn't intend to do heavy analysis work, which I respect because I've wanted to have chill, RPful games before even if everyone knows that never pans out. I'm community-meta sensitive as a player, I acknowledge, which shows up there with Illwei as well. I try not to create environments where players who want a chill game or who want playstyle shifts get unfairly penalised for it. This was a bad aspect of old SE the community has moved away from and I'm glad we've moved away from it and will defend this shift stridently. 

That being said, I agree that this can't be used as a free pass - at most, the style shift has to be NAI rather than a Village pass or an Elim indicator. Factoring that out, I still struggle to see it: I think my issue is capability. It's not that Maili didn't, it's why wouldn't he? Losing a Elim is usually pretty bad as compared to us losing a Villager, due to numerical disparities and the way the wincons are structured. It's why I get to pyrehawk. Maili is capable of defending his teammates so the fact he didn't is ??? to me. I acknowledge the point that this treads dangerously close to a Dingo apathy clear, so I'm okay with pressure on Maili or trying to rethink, but that's not going to happen in my current state.

I'd agree with the C2 Experience dgaf energy though - side-train votes usually stick out to me in a V/V train world, but I'm currently still favouring JNV so no change in my vote. As I mentioned earlier, Maili was a C1 side-train voter, so I guess I could see him in my pool if the Elims were trying to hedge their bets with some off-train Elims. But I feel like I'm going to and fro right now, so I'm going to cut myself off and go rest.

Quote

• (4) JNV: Kasimir, Amanuensis, Experience, Maill
• (2) Illwei: Amanuensis, Bort, 
• (2) The Unknown Aon: Illwei, JNV, 
• (2) Mailliw: Amanuensis, Ashbringer

There we go. Goodnight everyone, and all the best! I need to recover.

Edited to add: Okay wait I realise my fairness point was incoherent so lemme try again. I'm aware that I apply stronger standards to Illwei than most players. This might be because our playstyles genuinely don't mesh well so I find it hard to read her, or her offsite meta, or IDEK. I do know I hesitate more over Illwei than most players (there are other players this applies to but it's not really relevant right now and I'm tired so whatever.) and I'd give less weight to something that would make me V!read Illwei as compared to the same piece of evidence for another player. Some of it is probably from watching LG74 from the GM end. But IDK. I do know it's a thing, and so I hesitate more with Illwei reads because I always have to consciously ask myself if I'm being unfair to her and what I'd say if it was any player not Illwei. With the other hand being me asking if I'm overhasty to just assign a read to her. I don't like singling a player out like that and I feel it's kind of like a backdoor rep issue and I sure wouldn't like it when players do it to me. So bottom line is that entire first bullet point is just me saying - bracketing my standards issue/Illwei paranoia, if she were another player, I'd lean V for this cycle, so I'm going to move her up to at least Null+.

Edited March 13, 2022 by Kasimir
formatting

[+Lotus]

Oof… I hate daylight savings.

Four hour warning folks!

[Archer]

*Looks smugly at my alarm clock*: What time do you think it is?

Alarm clock: 9:22

*under my breath*: what an idiot

On 11/03/2022 at 2:32 PM, Illwei said:

The kill implies that there are no striker bussers, since they don't care about making the pool smaller.

I have decided I disagree with this point. The Devo kill reads to me as a token effort to kill off the people cleared by having voted for Striker, with the list arbitrarily shortened by chivalrous considerations. As someone said earlier, there was too many votes for them all to be village. 

By the way, thanks for taking one for the team, people willing to be NKed. Just make sure you're not imposing OOG reasons to use the kill that might force the elims to change from their preferred strategy.

[Experience]

My vote is correctly on JNV in the vote count.

[---]

I honestly don't see myself as any less agressive this game

I have periodically put some emojis in though :P.

2 hours ago, Archer said:

By the way, thanks for taking one for the team, people willing to be NKed. Just make sure you're not imposing OOG reasons to use the kill that might force the elims to change from their preferred strategy.

I think it would take mad guts to post this as an Elim

 

I don't think JNV is a villager enough to fight this simply because I have seen him be just obviously villagery before. It feels stale though

If jnv flips village then Exp's elim equity goes up a little. 

Edited March 13, 2022 by Illwei

[Experience]

Hmm. 

My gut is not feeling good about Illwei. Is it weird that she's said multiple times now (I'm pretty sure, maybe I'm remembering incorrectly) how something that someone else has said would be weird/unlikely for an elim to post?  

Something in my mind keeps saying that it would be weird for an elim to point that out, which idk. Probably nothing. But gut.

I'd be willing to switch to Illwei, but I'm fine staying on JNV. I also might not be able to get back on before rollover so there's a chance I wouldn't be able to switch my vote either way. 

[+Lotus]

Cycle is closed.

[+Lotus]

Sometimes people disappear without you noticing them.

Sometimes their luggage... simply disappears.

And when Nid came downstairs for some hangover medication, she was shocked to find that both Awoman and Aracha had left in the night, dismissed by Roshar's most eligible bachelor after a night where the two of them had gotten a little too drunk. 

- - - 

JNV was not given a rose (voted out)! They were a Honest participant! 

Aman was not given a rose (killed)! They were a Honest participant! 

- - -

 

Vote Count: 

JNV (5): Kasimir, Archer, Experience, Maillwi, Illwei

Unknown Aon (1): JNV

Maillw(1): Ash

Aman (1): Aman

Illwei(1): Bort

 

- - -

Neither @Orlok Tsubodai nor @The Unknown Novel posted last turn. Please post during this one or you may be eliminated.

- - - 

 

Player list: 

 

1. Kasimir-- Keredin

2. Matrim's Dice--Lucy  honest participant 

3. The Unknown Aon--Floradel

4. Devotary--Kelath honest participant 

5. JNV--Aracha honest participant 

6. Archer--Nid

7. Experience--Zara

8 .Stricker--Vanala Ghostblood spy 

9. Ash--Tailia

10. Maillwi--Malila

11. Thaidakar the Ghostblood--Salana honest participant 

12. Amanuensis--Awoman  honest participant 

13. Illwei--Albert

14. Bort--Bortington the Blind

14. Orlok

[Archer]

totally forgot to flirt with JNV's character. Our ship name was going to be the Spider Couple because Aracha+Nid... oh well I need to RP.

Nid popped some gum into her mouth and sauntered over to Floradel. "Hi, I'm rich. You look like a TUN of fun. Does my breath smell like mint, because I've got a lot of new money."

I'd figured Illwei and JNV were evil teammates trying to get the TUA mix going last cycle, but apparently that wasn't the case. I'll note that Experience was the only one lurking near rollover, so mild sus for that. Actually, big sus because besides Ash who I'll ignore for now and Orlok who is MIA, they're next on my list. Largely for saying, “Literally got nothing, including time. I... think I'll drop a vote on Ash this turn.” at the end of C1. Felt like them trying to save face after the knew Striker would die. 

[The Unknown Ajah]

Forgot about the game. Will try and do stuff soon. 

[Ashbringer]

I... slept through rollover.

[The Unknown Ajah]

On 3/12/2022 at 0:39 AM, Kasimir said:

Deader Than A Triton Moon [=Null]

  Hide contents

• TUA

I'm just going to be blunt. The only thing keeping TUA from being in Null- for me right now is the knowledge that V!TUA does ??? as a player or says stuff I genuinely can't grok, and I don't know if it's TUA being TUA again, and that's colouring my reactions to him. Against that, I weigh the knowledge that he is very reactive/defensive in response to pressure as an Elim. It's partly an Elim profile issue as well.

 

  Reveal hidden contents

• JNV

This is me running off raw vote patterns here - being on the Archer (Striker designated CW) and Ash trains (if we think there was Elim influence on the Ash train), and down to Elim profile as well. Given V!Archer the designated CW, I expect some Elim involvement in that CW beyond just Striker. I felt that JNV's Archer push was a bit too strong for what was a disagreement of reasoning, and I wonder if it was because the Archer train needed to take off. Against that, I weigh the fact that I know this is my weakness as a player, and something I've tried very hard to control ever since MLing Orlok in LG12, and Creccio in LG15b.

This is probably the best description of my play style I've ever seen.

On 3/11/2022 at 1:19 PM, Illwei said:

You both had similar approaches (read: Practically identical) to me in Elim games I have had with you guys :P. must be that. :P.

I'm at a TUA/Ash flip right now.

TUA

Which Elim games? 

On 3/12/2022 at 1:32 AM, Illwei said:

I don't believe in an E!Archer world much either, I just. I'm right now pretty much following Matrim on him rn. Matrim and the current crowd. My problem is honestly that it seems like these Archer V reads are for being the CW to Striker, when it barely seemed like anyone tried to push things onto Archer. In the middle of a re-read so potentially wrong here. It ended up with Striker vs. Ash anyways, not Archer. the Archer counterwagon didn't even go anywhere. Perhaps I'm not understanding something?

--

Unrelated Tinfoil, open at your own risk

  Hide contents

 

Okay, not something I'm going to explore really, but one of the reasons I want to flip TUA is because I think that he has been suspicious, but also that the only world that makes sense to me about Aman being an Elim is if TUA is also an Elim. I can't really elaborate much on this but it's something in my head and I'm trying to get it out so maybe it doesn't eat all of my thoughts. Devo and Matrim being kills is strange to me, which is why I've decided to just try following them, which is what leads me for the most part to voting on Ash right now.

To clarify: I think TUA has elim equity and /if/ he is an Elim than Aman's Equity rises. I am not saying that I think if TUA is an Elim then Aman is as well.

 

EDIT:

Regardless of what the approach implies, I do think that Striker's approach to both TUA and Ash were similar. That they were the most similar reads. the only people that he really said "should look more into" to.

Similar at face value, but pretty different with how the interactions went down. 

On 3/12/2022 at 3:02 AM, Kasimir said:

 

  Hide contents

• I'm trying to understand your line of thought here. You thinking there's a light connection because of Aman V!reading TUA? Is best I can make of this.
   
• I'm less confused by the Mat kill because I remember Mat getting C1 NKed at least once, though I think that was with E!Archer, E!Araris, and...oh. And E!TUA, in MR52. I...see where you're coming from. But yeah, the Devo kill is really throwing me. I'm confused about why they'd narrow the Striker pool. It really takes me back to the double Ocho kill in AG8 because killing the CW, why

 

Response to bold:

From an outside perspective, I not only understand but kinda agree with that read,but I think Aman just tends to v!read me for reasons beyond my understanding. 

Response to italics:

I honestly don't remember my reasoning on that kill and I didn't put it in the doc.

On 3/12/2022 at 8:45 AM, Illwei said:

You imply I'm not capable of doubting myself? Or Re-evaling? I doubt every single one of my reads but faking confidence applies pressure better than not. As Kas said I suppose, I keep that to PMs more (lol) with people I trust as well as my notes rather than in thread. If I posted my full thoughts I type out when making reads then it would look like I have no opinions.

I don't think Aman said anything even capable of being misunderstood as that. This is also a non-defense because the end sidesteps the issue. It isn't about you doubting yourself entirely, it's that you were waffly on only your elim reads.

On 3/12/2022 at 9:13 AM, JNV said:

Nonvoters are The Unknonw Aon Ex[erience Mailliw Bort Orlok. Orlok said they have irl stuff so no hmms there. I dont remember why bort is trusted but Ill look into it oine sec. K so different from elim behavior wasn't online for the bus ok sounds good might peek back later. The Unknown Aon has been hmm a bit so if theyre evil more likely village Ashbringer cause the vote. I dont remember Experience at all which is a bit hm in and of itself but Ill look into it one sec. Ok yeah the Ashbringer vote in C1 looks real bad but also if Experience is evil it implies less bus and more "oh no were doomed" from the elimsso maybe not or did they not expect the Striker vote to actually go through but then wheres the other elim/s only nonvoter was Archer so if not bus then scattered side vote but that doesnt relaly make sense so maybe Experience not evil. Mailliw seemed really apathetic bout the STriker vote andf hoenstly Im not really sure either way so just very light hm maybe even just hn

Ok so Iread the back and forth and I dont really think the initial Illwei post was hmm but Strikers response to your disagreement was kinda hmm disagreement then immediate backtracking under pressure seems invested in not defending I could see it if I squint maybe but also oculdj ust be elim Striker trying not to get into fights instead of elim Striker trying not to be tied to elim Illwei

But compare to The Unknown Aon disagremeent where Striker said it was jsut their opinon on opposition could be reading sus vs reading trust could be Illwei argument had more evidence but hmm The Unknown Aon Illwei not the same alignment? Id prefer voting The Unknown Aon over Illwei but i dont know why so Ill look into that real quick

 

The Unknown Aon hmm stuff

• Retaliation vote
  • I just dont like these in general and also this is hmmm whne considering how Archer wasnt even guaranteed votin 
• Bad Illwei vibe no reason
• Then not actually retaliation vote?
  • "it was a joke" that wasnt really obvcious? Hmmm

The fact that this is all C1 stuff makes me go hmm at my suspicion and honestly I always read The Unkonw Aon kind of weird so maybe not but still its kinda hmm

 

Illwei hmm stuff

Honestly  Im not coming up with stuff and this might be cause I agree with them on a lot of things like Archer and the vote shenanigan bad time but like... I just dont really think theyre evil! I kinda like them. Thats probably a  bad sign all things considered 

 

I sitll dont like Ashbringer or Archer honestly but with an extra day in the cycle I think Ill just read through the game a few times so I can try to figure stuff out itll probalby confuse me more honestly but oh well

 

Ummmmmm... what? This is my first post of the cycle and I hvaent said anything about voting for Illwei last cycle I dont think so where is this coming from

 

Oh and about all the votes on me I kinda feel like theres nothing to defend cause the votes seem based on actions and how they could be interpreted rather than things Ive said and I cant relaly argue against what might be true because sure everything might be true so Ill see you in the credits I guess I dont know whhat my flip will help you with but we arent in the doom cycle and we arent pressed for evil raeds 

I cna see evil Ashbringer in a world with a three person team and inactive third guy cause then its basiclaly solo Ashbringer at this point 

I have to go somewhere right now might not be back for a few hours have fun bye

Response to bold:

The "Archer wasn't even guaranteed to vote" argument is flawed when used to say e!TUN because saying that a villager wouldn't react to a third of a threat but a elim would is simply incorrect. Why can a villager not react to pressure? Especially when they know they are confirmed good. And I didn’t even do it because of that. I did it as a joke, which you don't understand for some reason.

Response to italics:

Gut. And Aman raised a point earlier that cycle that I agreed with.

Response to underline:

Everyone reads me weird. I really don't understand it.

Response to the multi-format:

Having a village read of someone isn't a bad thing, even if some other people read them as elim.

 

[Archer]

@The Unknown Novel, @Ashbringerwho're you guys voting for? Wanna join me on Experience? Take a stab at Mail for being out of sync with consensus? Look into Illwei because Aman isn't here to argue against it? Joking aside, those are the three I'd most like to exe.